Corbyn is going to be box office again. That doesn't mean he will win much but this is going to be exciting. He'll be pumped with a really radical agenda and I think he will do enough to deprive Johnson of an outright.
Things like nationalisation of the railways will hit a huge spot.
Just my take.
It hasn’t really cut through but the Tories gave committed to end rail franchising
I think that's belatedly smart by Labour. As Lewis Goodall points out anyway, four days into the campaign literally no one will remember this week's arguing about the date or how we got there.
12/12 is incredibly close to Christmas though. Blimey.
I think this is right - its been silly all around, but once it's set it's set, and who played the silliest of the silly buggers wont change voting intention.
12 Dec, voters go to work. Works Christmas party. Get smashed. Don’t make it home in time to vote. That will 100% be a scenario played out across the country.
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.
I thought the most popular was the last Friday before Christmas? 12th seems a bit early!
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
Actually we’re all getting ahead of ourselves. The thing most in line with events so far would be for Boris and Corbyn to whip for an election, but the SNP/LibDems to flip and Tory/Labour own rebels to leave them high and dry. Parliament votes against an election and soldiers on.
The priority for the LDs is to overtake Labour during the first half of campaign, because then they could have a go at challenging the Tories in the second half.
Yep. And the decisive cohort is the Tory remainers, who have mostly been resisting another referendum for good reasons, but now have the chance to reverse Brexit by lending their vote to the LibDems. If they stick with their usual choice then the Tories are probably home; if they show early signs of being willing to back the Remain Alliance, game on.
I think that's belatedly smart by Labour. As Lewis Goodall points out anyway, four days into the campaign literally no one will remember this week's arguing about the date or how we got there.
12/12 is incredibly close to Christmas though. Blimey.
Can you plausibly open parliament before Christmas or is all of December a write off?
Where is @ydoethur when we need him? There must have been an 18th Century prime minister who spent less time in parliament than Boris. Has he done a full week? Elected, summer recess, prorogation, now dissolution, election, Christmas/New Year.
299 voted for it yesterday. LibDems are on board, SNP are on board, Labour are on board. I'm afraid the 100 Labour backbenchers are just going to have to suck it up no matter how many texts they send Dan Hodges.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
IMO it's best not to make judgements in these cases unless you're actually there and know the full details. We don't know whether the old people were suffering from an illness or something like that, for example.
Irrelevant, really.
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
What did fail was basic politeness.
You also don't know what the actual conversation was, or whether the people twittering had the wrong carriage or whatever.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
You think they'll put that stuff in the manifesto? No way. It will be all a load of non committal hot air about making a new country, fresh challenges, new opportunities for business etc etc.
Just returned from Town and the news that labour back the election confirming the end of this bankrupt and useless Parliament and it is just such a relief as it feels as if this is the moment things change...
It is the successive governments you have supported which have been bankrupt and useless.
Well that is a view but the new parliament will be elected knowing the brexit offers and it will result either in brexit by 31st January or a referendum by mid summer 2020
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
Oh dear oh dear. Hard core Leavers phoning into BBC Essex this morning; we didn't vote to Leave with a Deal so they're going to vote Remain!
You couldn't could you!
A potentially significant group will shoot themselves in the foot with this election. My money is on hard leavers more than remainers, but the latter have that risk too.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
It won’t be that though will it? It’ll be “take back control and get five million new hospitals and tax cuts for all”. Cummings and Boris will say what they need to say.
Anyone betting against the Brexit party winning seats in numbers should keep a close eye on the Welsh valleys. If they are to start picking up seats in numbers, those are among the first that will fall to them.
I'm in Ystrad Mynach, Caerphilly. I can't see it happening happen here (and I doubt it in any of the surrounding seats). The Labour vote is too embedded and the people less visceral about Brexit than they are in the north England seats.
Corbyn is unpopular around here but I think most Labour voters unhappy with Corbyn would go to Plaid rather than Brexit.
I think that's belatedly smart by Labour. As Lewis Goodall points out anyway, four days into the campaign literally no one will remember this week's arguing about the date or how we got there.
12/12 is incredibly close to Christmas though. Blimey.
Can you plausibly open parliament before Christmas or is all of December a write off?
Where is @ydoethur when we need him? There must have been an 18th Century prime minister who spent less time in parliament than Boris. Has he done a full week? Elected, summer recess, prorogation, now dissolution, election, Christmas/New Year.
Just reading Pepys' diaries. Parliament was prorogued on the 20th August 1664 until late November.
Boris always had something of a cavalier attitude.
I think Farage has a good chance in Thurrock. Can't see the Brexit Party having a chance anywhere else.
I was in Thurrock yesterday, having fallen under the spell of an Essex girls favourite wine
"I wanna go to Lakeside"
I chatted with an Eastern European shop assistant, and I must say it gave me pause for thought over the merits of FOM. I want to make clear that I never have criticised the EEs, I just think the British poor have been had over by governments that allowed businesses to recruit cheaply, with no thought of the effect it would have on people struggling to make ends meet.
12 Dec, voters go to work. Works Christmas party. Get smashed. Don’t make it home in time to vote. That will 100% be a scenario played out across the country.
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.
I thought the most popular was the last Friday before Christmas? 12th seems a bit early!
Au contraire. A) Fridays are unpopular because that’s employees’ own time b) the final week is too late and many take those days off to use up holiday and/or do Christmas shopping.
12 Dec will be the most popular day for works parties.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
There is no such thing as the meteorological definition, that’s just Met Office spin. The seasons are set by the cosmos. There is a Met Office definition, but government agencies have no power to defy the laws of physics.
The astronomical definition, as such, exists only because it was easy for stone age society to measure with stone circles, but it didn't make much sense in its own terms. It would make more sense if the winter astronomical season had the winter solstice in the middle of the winter season. Then you'd have one dark season, one light season and two transition seasons.
The group I think quite a bit about are the 30+% (possibly 40+% if the don't knows on both sides overlap) of people who are dissatisfied with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn:
What are they going to do in an election? We have no sense of intensity of dissatisfaction on both sides from these figures. But that intensity question may be very important indeed in the coming weeks.
Johnson is more personally disagreeable in his erudite wannabe Trump style, but corbyn has more dodgy background outside personal stuff. Tricky.
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
There is no such thing as the meteorological definition, that’s just Met Office spin. The seasons are set by the cosmos. There is a Met Office definition, but government agencies have no power to defy the laws of physics.
Winter begins on 21 Dec and ends on 21 March.
winter is a commonly used word, and has been around for longer than the laws of physics. like brexit, it means what people want it to mean. For me, december is a winter month, I'm not sure which laws of physics this infringes.
see also "midwinter" which means "the middle of winter" = 21st/22nd december
Meteorology like any other ology is a body of ideas. Of course the study of the weather includes the use of notions of seasons even if there is no hard and fast definition of exact boundaries between them.
If people want to insist on a quartering of the year then do it the astronomical way and in the temperate climes it's fine to call the periods seasons, in which case winter starts at the winter solstice and runs to the spring equinox.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
No. Autum starts on the 1st September and finishes on the 30th November. Three months for each. (Don't get me started on this. My wife and I argue every three months. She views the seasons as 21st December to 20th March for winter... and so on.... we laugh now... mostly) And as for my brother's insane approach to the seasons (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb - Winter, Mar, Apr - Spring.. etc)......
Your brother has summer and winter each lasting twice as long as the other two seasons? Calling 1 May a summer's day in Britain is absurd.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
12 Dec, voters go to work. Works Christmas party. Get smashed. Don’t make it home in time to vote. That will 100% be a scenario played out across the country.
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.
I thought the most popular was the last Friday before Christmas? 12th seems a bit early!
Au contraire. A) Fridays are unpopular because that’s employees’ own time b) the final week is too late and many take those days off to use up holiday and/or do Christmas shopping.
12 Dec will be the most popular day for works parties.
You are completely right and I don’t know why anyone’s arguing with you.
Ben Bradshaw, like Sheerman, extremely unhappy with election. Extremely.
Wonder if he will stand again?
Both are standing again. Barry sheerman has been in the local paper on the frontpage on a frequent basis with a lot of non stories of late. As a vetran politician he knows the value of getting on the front page near an election for any reason. No such thing as bad publicity...
Only I was reliably informed that Bradshaw was intent on making 2015 his last term. Had to have his arm twisted a bit in 2017.
There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
I think Farage has a good chance in Thurrock. Can't see the Brexit Party having a chance anywhere else.
Hartlepool. Controversy with the Labour MP and a Brexit council. Labour got battered all across Teesside as recently as May, so the momentum is with the NuKippers
Anyone betting against the Brexit party winning seats in numbers should keep a close eye on the Welsh valleys. If they are to start picking up seats in numbers, those are among the first that will fall to them.
I'm in Ystrad Mynach, Caerphilly. I can't see it happening happen here (and I doubt it in any of the surrounding seats). The Labour vote is too embedded and the people less visceral about Brexit than they are in the north England seats.
Corbyn is unpopular around here but I think most Labour voters unhappy with Corbyn would go to Plaid rather than Brexit.
Isn't the Labour vote a lot less solid than it used to be in the Valleys?
Actually we’re all getting ahead of ourselves. The thing most in line with events so far would be for Boris and Corbyn to whip for an election, but the SNP/LibDems to flip and Tory/Labour own rebels to leave them high and dry. Parliament votes against an election and soldiers on.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
The group I think quite a bit about are the 30+% (possibly 40+% if the don't knows on both sides overlap) of people who are dissatisfied with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn:
What are they going to do in an election? We have no sense of intensity of dissatisfaction on both sides from these figures. But that intensity question may be very important indeed in the coming weeks.
Johnson is more personally disagreeable in his erudite wannabe Trump style, but corbyn has more dodgy background outside personal stuff. Tricky.
Both main leaders negatively thought of, one humongously so, and the betting advice is to sell the insurgents at low levels...
There's already two leave candidates with Labour and the Tories going at each other. Was important that Remain had a decent candidate too. Can see a big LibDem surge across London as the reality of putting Jeremy "Jobs First Brexit" into number 10 dawns on Remain voters
I know how much all the tricoteuses on here love an election - I'm sure the activists pounding the streets on the cold November and December evenings may not quite as enamoured.
While I maintain the Conservatives will win a substantial majority, the election offers the opportunity for change and the mood of fatigue, frustration and futility has finally got what it thinks it wants.
Part of me screams "be careful what you wish for". The prospect of Boris Johnson, with a substantial majority, tearing this country apart over the next five years, is grotesquely unpalatable to me as it should be to anyone with a functioning brain cell (of course the Islington Marxist would be no better).
The Johnson hegemony will one day end and it will come crashing down round his head and I hopefully will be there to see it and applaud.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
Boris will be offering tax cuts and spending for hospitals and the police and schools and above all to get Brexit done.
Ben Bradshaw, like Sheerman, extremely unhappy with election. Extremely.
Wonder if he will stand again?
Both are standing again. Barry sheerman has been in the local paper on the frontpage on a frequent basis with a lot of non stories of late. As a vetran politician he knows the value of getting on the front page near an election for any reason. No such thing as bad publicity...
Only I was reliably informed that Bradshaw was intent on making 2015 his last term. Had to have his arm twisted a bit in 2017.
There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
At the last boundary review a lot of Tory areas from the outskirts of the city were excluded due to population growth overall. Otherwise the Tories probably would have won in 2010.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Have you hired machine guns and blank rounds to fire up into the air if BJ wins?
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
I've seen people refuse to move. Since there's no revenue lost to the train company they're not going to go to the same lengths to enforce the rules.
I once jokingly remarked that there was no chance of reaching my reserved seat when I boarded a packed train once, only to have the ticket inspector tell me angrily that my ticket only entitled me to space within the shell of the train and not a seat.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
There is no such thing as the meteorological definition, that’s just Met Office spin. The seasons are set by the cosmos. There is a Met Office definition, but government agencies have no power to defy the laws of physics.
The astronomical definition, as such, exists only because it was easy for stone age society to measure with stone circles, but it didn't make much sense in its own terms. It would make more sense if the winter astronomical season had the winter solstice in the middle of the winter season. Then you'd have one dark season, one light season and two transition seasons.
But then you'd have to remember twice as many days: when the season starts and its middle
The group I think quite a bit about are the 30+% (possibly 40+% if the don't knows on both sides overlap) of people who are dissatisfied with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn:
What are they going to do in an election? We have no sense of intensity of dissatisfaction on both sides from these figures. But that intensity question may be very important indeed in the coming weeks.
Johnson is more personally disagreeable in his erudite wannabe Trump style, but corbyn has more dodgy background outside personal stuff. Tricky.
Both main leaders negatively thought of, one humongously so, and the betting advice is to sell the insurgents at low levels...
No, the insurgents [Lib Dems] are predicted to do much better than last time.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
There is no such thing as the meteorological definition, that’s just Met Office spin. The seasons are set by the cosmos. There is a Met Office definition, but government agencies have no power to defy the laws of physics.
The astronomical definition, as such, exists only because it was easy for stone age society to measure with stone circles, but it didn't make much sense in its own terms. It would make more sense if the winter astronomical season had the winter solstice in the middle of the winter season. Then you'd have one dark season, one light season and two transition seasons.
But then spring would be colder than winter, or very close.
I’m an advocate of thermal seasons - which would run 10 Dec to 10 March and so on. The inaccurately named “meteorological season” has no basis in science and is simply a product of statistical convenience because it uses whole months of the year.
Ben Bradshaw, like Sheerman, extremely unhappy with election. Extremely.
Wonder if he will stand again?
Both are standing again. Barry sheerman has been in the local paper on the frontpage on a frequent basis with a lot of non stories of late. As a vetran politician he knows the value of getting on the front page near an election for any reason. No such thing as bad publicity...
Only I was reliably informed that Bradshaw was intent on making 2015 his last term. Had to have his arm twisted a bit in 2017.
There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
I can understand that Tory strategy. I think Bradshaw was on a news channel saying he would be fighting an election yesterday. I cannot remember which channel as i watched at least 3 yesterday evening!
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
According to the the leaked People's Vote polling, the 'excellent' Hammond is even less popular than Corbyn...
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Have you considered that the LDs might squeeze Labour?
No
Edit: To be less flippant; not on a national level. Maybe in certain seats, but I would assume Lab will squeeze at a national level overall.
I think anything could happen during this campaign. Well, not anything, but a lot of unexpected things.
That’s not the traditional politicalbetting approach.
I think standard procedure is for all of us to outline various credible campaign events that lead to differing outcomes, so at least one of us can look clever after the results.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
IMO it's best not to make judgements in these cases unless you're actually there and know the full details. We don't know whether the old people were suffering from an illness or something like that, for example.
Irrelevant, really.
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
What did fail was basic politeness.
You also don't know what the actual conversation was, or whether the people twittering had the wrong carriage or whatever.
Would the conductor have given them a seat in first had they simply had the wrong carriage?
Might have, saw an argument and a miserable family, had some empty seats, put the family in the empty seats, happy customers. There's just no way to know what happened based on some tweets from one side of the argument.
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
According to the the leaked People's Vote polling, the 'excellent' Hammond is even less popular than Corbyn...
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. I kept waiting for them to appear, and they never did. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
I don't think they'll repeat any of those mistakes, except for the Phil Hammond one obv. Javid won't be as convincing (and in any case they've thrown away much of their advantage on sound economics).
Good afternoon all.
Which bit of low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment and a vastly reduced deficit is the Tories throwing away any of their advantage on sound economics.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Using the helicopter base at Lippets Hill to airlift the troops to Gib.
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
She stood on a ticket of respecting the referendum result and said to hold a second referendum would be to make the UK "the kind of banana republic that I don't want to live in"
Then voted against leaving, defected without holding a by election, and campaigned for a second referendum. She should have been disallowed from standing for parliament ever again on the back of that. Now she can retire to the fluffyness of the family business, good riddance.
12 Dec, voters go to work. Works Christmas party. Get smashed. Don’t make it home in time to vote. That will 100% be a scenario played out across the country.
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.
I thought the most popular was the last Friday before Christmas? 12th seems a bit early!
Au contraire. A) Fridays are unpopular because that’s employees’ own time b) the final week is too late and many take those days off to use up holiday and/or do Christmas shopping.
12 Dec will be the most popular day for works parties.
You are completely right and I don’t know why anyone’s arguing with you.
Will be fun this afternoon when it starts to dawn on events organisers...
The group I think quite a bit about are the 30+% (possibly 40+% if the don't knows on both sides overlap) of people who are dissatisfied with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn:
What are they going to do in an election? We have no sense of intensity of dissatisfaction on both sides from these figures. But that intensity question may be very important indeed in the coming weeks.
Johnson is more personally disagreeable in his erudite wannabe Trump style, but corbyn has more dodgy background outside personal stuff. Tricky.
Both main leaders negatively thought of, one humongously so, and the betting advice is to sell the insurgents at low levels...
No, the insurgents [Lib Dems] are predicted to do much better than last time.
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
She stood on a ticket of respecting the referendum result and said to hold a second referendum would be to make the UK "the kind of banana republic that I don't want to live in"
Then voted against leaving, defected without holding a by election, and campaigned for a second referendum. She should have been disallowed from standing for parliament ever again on the back of that. Now she can retire to the fluffyness of the family business, good riddance.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Using the helicopter base at Lippets Hill to airlift the troops to Gib.
You need to go knocking at the 2019 GE layers doors and ask for those platitudes back!
Oh bless him, he does look cheerful. It’s win win for him one feels. If he wins, he gets a short but interesting go at being PM. If he loses he is FREE.
I think Farage has a good chance in Thurrock. Can't see the Brexit Party having a chance anywhere else.
Hartlepool. Controversy with the Labour MP and a Brexit council. Labour got battered all across Teesside as recently as May, so the momentum is with the NuKippers
The momentum is definitely anti-labour, it’s hard to say who will best benefit from it.
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
She stood on a ticket of respecting the referendum result and said to hold a second referendum would be to make the UK "the kind of banana republic that I don't want to live in"
Then voted against leaving, defected without holding a by election, and campaigned for a second referendum. She should have been disallowed from standing for parliament ever again on the back of that. Now she can retire to the fluffyness of the family business, good riddance.
Good news for the Tories.....
I think Heidi Allen's behaviour, and the lack of criticism that accompanied it, prove that old men will still forgive a pretty lady anything
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
According to the the leaked People's Vote polling, the 'excellent' Hammond is even less popular than Corbyn...
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Using the helicopter base at Lippets Hill to airlift the troops to Gib.
You need to go knocking at the 2019 GE layers doors and ask for those platitudes back!
She is exhausted by the invasion of privacy, nastiness and threats. There is a world of difference between those two statements.
Being an MP is tough. You cant go back on what got you elected in the way she did and not expect kickback from the voters. The nastiness, in my opinion, is her deception.
12 Dec, voters go to work. Works Christmas party. Get smashed. Don’t make it home in time to vote. That will 100% be a scenario played out across the country.
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.
I thought the most popular was the last Friday before Christmas? 12th seems a bit early!
Au contraire. A) Fridays are unpopular because that’s employees’ own time b) the final week is too late and many take those days off to use up holiday and/or do Christmas shopping.
12 Dec will be the most popular day for works parties.
You are completely right and I don’t know why anyone’s arguing with you.
Will be fun this afternoon when it starts to dawn on events organisers...
Why? Vote in the morning. Get hammered at the works party in the evening. Stagger home to watch the results come in. What’s not to like?
A majority for Boris under FPTP will absolutely resolve Brexit.
Not at all clear. Plenty of Tories would prefer No Deal, and there will be more in the new intake. But plenty of anti-no-deal Mps will still be there. It could easily end in the same dynamic.
Ben Bradshaw, like Sheerman, extremely unhappy with election. Extremely.
Wonder if he will stand again?
Both are standing again. Barry sheerman has been in the local paper on the frontpage on a frequent basis with a lot of non stories of late. As a vetran politician he knows the value of getting on the front page near an election for any reason. No such thing as bad publicity...
Only I was reliably informed that Bradshaw was intent on making 2015 his last term. Had to have his arm twisted a bit in 2017.
There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
I can understand that Tory strategy. I think Bradshaw was on a news channel saying he would be fighting an election yesterday. I cannot remember which channel as i watched at least 3 yesterday evening!
Thanks. He would be a big loss for Labour in the SW if he doesn't stand. Their Plymouth seats looks a tricky hold.
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
It'll be okay if everyone accepts the result of the election, but if people only accept it if they get the result they personally want it won't improve.
Comments
https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2017/11/newrailstrategy
So far, lots of sighing, comments of “shitshow” and trying to change the subject.
Oh, my coat?
Hold on...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50187528
Corbyn is unpopular around here but I think most Labour voters unhappy with Corbyn would go to Plaid rather than Brexit.
Boris always had something of a cavalier attitude.
"I wanna go to Lakeside"
I chatted with an Eastern European shop assistant, and I must say it gave me pause for thought over the merits of FOM. I want to make clear that I never have criticised the EEs, I just think the British poor have been had over by governments that allowed businesses to recruit cheaply, with no thought of the effect it would have on people struggling to make ends meet.
12 Dec will be the most popular day for works parties.
The astronomical definition, as such, exists only because it was easy for stone age society to measure with stone circles, but it didn't make much sense in its own terms. It would make more sense if the winter astronomical season had the winter solstice in the middle of the winter season. Then you'd have one dark season, one light season and two transition seasons.
If people want to insist on a quartering of the year then do it the astronomical way and in the temperate climes it's fine to call the periods seasons, in which case winter starts at the winter solstice and runs to the spring equinox. Your brother has summer and winter each lasting twice as long as the other two seasons? Calling 1 May a summer's day in Britain is absurd.
Conservatives 36%
Labour 24%
LDs 18%
Brexit Party 11%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197
So currently the LDs are much closer to Labour on average than Labour are to the Tories
There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
I know how much all the tricoteuses on here love an election - I'm sure the activists pounding the streets on the cold November and December evenings may not quite as enamoured.
While I maintain the Conservatives will win a substantial majority, the election offers the opportunity for change and the mood of fatigue, frustration and futility has finally got what it thinks it wants.
Part of me screams "be careful what you wish for". The prospect of Boris Johnson, with a substantial majority, tearing this country apart over the next five years, is grotesquely unpalatable to me as it should be to anyone with a functioning brain cell (of course the Islington Marxist would be no better).
The Johnson hegemony will one day end and it will come crashing down round his head and I hopefully will be there to see it and applaud.
Boris will be Santa to May's Cruella Da Vil
I once jokingly remarked that there was no chance of reaching my reserved seat when I boarded a packed train once, only to have the ticket inspector tell me angrily that my ticket only entitled me to space within the shell of the train and not a seat.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
I’m an advocate of thermal seasons - which would run 10 Dec to 10 March and so on. The inaccurately named “meteorological season” has no basis in science and is simply a product of statistical convenience because it uses whole months of the year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4U5PCqQ_1Y
However it is true he was underestimated before and seems to be being underestimated again.
Which bit of low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment and a vastly reduced deficit is the Tories throwing away any of their advantage on sound economics.
Then voted against leaving, defected without holding a by election, and campaigned for a second referendum. She should have been disallowed from standing for parliament ever again on the back of that. Now she can retire to the fluffyness of the family business, good riddance.
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/11914/retiring-mps-2017
Farage needs to be primed to be all over the media screaming betrayal at every oppertunity.