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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the next big electoral test
Next week the LAB MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann is quiting as an MP to take up a government role fighting anti-semitism. He’ll be elevated to the House of Lords.
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First like England (hopefully).0
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A lot would depend on Labour's choice of candidate and on whether the Brexit party stood. But yes, Labour hold looks most likely.0
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It's a good argument, and one I ultimately accept. It is, however, a major omission to overlook all the political damage that Leaving is itself causing. Leavers are trashing every civic institution on the way out. Remain or Leave, Britain's political institutions are going to be very badly damaged.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Bassetlaw? Sure someone's not making this up? Where the hell is it?0
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My post went missing so I'll repeat. Mightn't it have been a good idea to put a Jew in charge of a government push to root out anti- semitism?0
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Sums up where I am at the moment.CarlottaVance said:0 -
North Notts.Fenman said:Bassetlaw? Sure someone's not making this up? Where the hell is it?
The bit of the A1 before it becomes motorway at Blyth.0 -
Bassetlaw is the constituency that I grew up in and where I cast my first ever GE vote (for the Conservatives in 1997).0
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England 🏴 🏴0
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Labour without Corbyn?Anabobazina said:We should be 14+ pts ahead
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FPT
Re the Times survey
*I am not surprised - Customs in the Irish sea is not acceptable to be fair.
However, we are where you we and no point in buyers remorse over TM deal which I backed and still would.
I expect Macron will have his way and it will be a short extension, maybe to the 15th November to pass the deal or to the 31st January to allow time for a GE
Macron is taking out Merkel as the dominant force in the EU and his plan must be to do everything he can to remove the UK out of the EU and in the recent friendship he has struck with Boris he must see him as someone he can do business with post Brexit
The striking thing with labour's tortuous route is they have used every kind of excuse to avoid a GE when if they had had any sense they should have immediately accepted the challenge and fight the deal and for a referendum.
I am amazed both labour and the lib dems did not realise immediately that as only the conservative party are pro Brexit, the combined opposition have a very real possibility of forming a consensus for a referendum post an early GE. I am far from convinced that Boris will get a majority but of course will be the largest party
It is also the best way to win a referendum which would have a mandate.
Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of any antennae in the labour and lib dems who had the chance to grab the initiative and by their obtuse reaction they have made it more difficult for themselves, much more difficult.
* I am aware a FTA will resolve the Irish Sea Customs but that has not cut through and the argument has to be made, and won0 -
Pretty well anything now will continue the damage for some time, sadlykle4 said:Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.CarlottaVance said:1 -
The Conservatives are usually terrible at by-elections, so I'd agree with Mike that the Socialists should hang on, not that they remotely deserve to.0
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With the Brexit Party far weaker than at the time of Peterborough by election and the Tories polling better on UNS the Bassetlaw by election should be a Tory gain0
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Not promising territory for them, but you’d expect some LD increase. The big question is whether that comes more from Lab rather than Con. In seats like this I’d expect a lot less Lab-Con switching than Cummings-Johnson are counting on.0
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Yessssssssss0
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I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?kle4 said:Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Yougov this morning would see the Tories gain Bassetlaw with 37% to 35% for Labour.HYUFD said:With the Brexit Party far weaker than at the time of Peterborough by election and the Tories polling better on UNS the Bassetlaw by election should be a Tory gain
Yougov
Tories 36%
Labour 23%
LDs 18%
Brexit Party 12%
Greens 6%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnsons-brexit-plan-fails-to-convince-voters-3mzxthtp5?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=15720749460 -
Noooooooooo0
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Yes without doubtNigelb said:
I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?kle4 said:Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Damn TMO, that’s twice now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Noooooooooo
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It's not going to matter. England are utterly bossing this game.Sandpit said:0 -
https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1188017706831941632?s=20
If Remainers are going to stop Brexit, they’ll have to beat Johnson in a general election first and then win a referendum. To the Irish Government and the EU, that now looks very unlikely.0 -
No hope of passing without a referendum attached to it. Why would there be? The ERG still wouldn't vote for it, nor would all but 6-8 Labour.Nigelb said:
I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?kle4 said:Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.
Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.CarlottaVance said:0 -
It was until this coming week. He either fails to get a GE and has a strop, or he does and then maybe he maintains it, maybe be doesn't.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Absolutely correct the first time.Sandpit said:
This one was more than questionable.0 -
Grumble grumble. So much hard work undone in a second. In sport as it is in politics.1
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Do you think we can have Bassetlaw, Buckingham & Sheffield Hallam all fixed for the same day?0
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Have the All Blacks forgotten to eat their breakfast? Go England.0
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I see someone has been editing the Wikipedia entry for today's TMO.0
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This article needs to be read and understood by all peoples vote and remain mps.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1188017706831941632?s=20
If Remainers are going to stop Brexit, they’ll have to beat Johnson in a general election first and then win a referendum. To the Irish Government and the EU, that now looks very unlikely.
This is exactly my point in my previous post down thread
They need an election now0 -
The Tories held Copeland in the general election and were re electednunuone said:
It could be like the Copeland Byelection in 2017,giving tories false hope.....Fishing said:The Conservatives are usually terrible at by-elections, so I'd agree with Mike that the Socialists should hang on, not that they remotely deserve to.
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On topic this place isn't that far from me and would have been part of the Sheffield City Region and Mayoralty.
It is one of those places that hasn't fully recovered from the end of the coal industry.
I think the Tories could win this in a by election (thanks to lazy Labour voters) but a Labour hold at a general election if we don't get a by election.0 -
The video ref:AndyJS said:
TMO?tlg86 said:I see someone has been editing the Wikipedia entry for today's TMO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marius_Jonker0 -
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These players are all magnificent and just posses amazing strength and fitness
Compare and contrast with the play acting, cheating, and pathetic overpaid footballers2 -
I think the Tories could take this seat, but the brexit party will probably save Corbyn's vegan bacon substitute0
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If, at this point, people won't vote the way they believe, and are tied to the whip, they are cowards, and more likely don't really care to vote for it or they would.Andrew said:
Yep. Although .... it'd sail through in a free vote.kle4 said:
No hope of passing without a referendum attached to it. Why would there be? The ERG still wouldn't vote for it, nor would all but 6-8 Labour.0 -
Conservative majority of 142 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 396
Labour 164
SNP 34
LDs 33
Plaid 3
Greens 2
BXP 0
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=23&LIB=18&Brexit=12&Green=6&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
The false hope involved was not just about Copeland itself but for what it seemed to portend for a GE, but you know that.HYUFD said:
The Tories held Copeland in the general election and were re electednunuone said:
It could be like the Copeland Byelection in 2017,giving tories false hope.....Fishing said:The Conservatives are usually terrible at by-elections, so I'd agree with Mike that the Socialists should hang on, not that they remotely deserve to.
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Yeah yeahHYUFD said:Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 3900 -
The other contrast with football is the attitude to the referees1
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At this rate Sir Eddie Jones will be appointed Southampton's Director of Football soon.0
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Yessss0
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All Blacks giving away penalties at a rate only ever normally seen by England on a bad day.0
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Bugger it.0
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Superb from Ford.0
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It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed onGallowgate said:
Yeah yeahHYUFD said:Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 3900 -
What may I askGardenwalker said:Bugger it.
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Are you the only Kiwi on this board?Gardenwalker said:Bugger it.
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I believe so, yes.Sandpit said:
Are you the only Kiwi on this board?Gardenwalker said:Bugger it.
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My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporterSandpit said:
Are you the only Kiwi on this board?Gardenwalker said:Bugger it.
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If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed onGallowgate said:
Yeah yeahHYUFD said:Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 3900 -
I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporterSandpit said:
Are you the only Kiwi on this board?Gardenwalker said:Bugger it.
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Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honestkle4 said:
If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed onGallowgate said:
Yeah yeahHYUFD said:Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 3900 -
FunnyGardenwalker said:
I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporterSandpit said:
Are you the only Kiwi on this board?Gardenwalker said:Bugger it.
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If he is not certain to win a GE then he may not pass his deal, so he should try to pass it now. If he fails, he has more narrative to help a GE win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honestkle4 said:
If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed onGallowgate said:
Yeah yeahHYUFD said:Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 3900 -
Odd to think that but for England gifting NZ 7 pts, they have not otherwise scored.2
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England are going to win this and fully deserve it
Just irrepressible0 -
Ha. Rugby, bringing families together. Teach her the words to ‘Swing Low’.Gardenwalker said:
I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporterSandpit said:
Are you the only Kiwi on this board?Gardenwalker said:Bugger it.
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Nice one England. Very good performance.0
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ENGLAND!!! 🏴 🏉0
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Yes, you are correct and that must be his way forwardkle4 said:
If he is not certain to win a GE then he may not pass his deal, so he should try to pass it now. If he fails, he has more narrative to help a GE win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honestkle4 said:
If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed onGallowgate said:
Yeah yeahHYUFD said:Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 3900 -
England v Wales (if Wales beat SA) will be a real test of loyalty in my family1
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I couldn’t even pick a MOTM in that.
Fantastic all round performance.0 -
I can just about deal with her supporting England.Sandpit said:
Ha. Rugby, bringing families together. Teach her the words to ‘Swing Low’.Gardenwalker said:
I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporterSandpit said:
Are you the only Kiwi on this board?Gardenwalker said:Bugger it.
If she cheers South Africa tomorrow I will disown her.2 -
Well done England0
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Great England performance but each match is different , commentators giving them the trophy already are being very premature .
All the pressure will be on them next week.1 -
Tough but fair.Gardenwalker said:
I can just about deal with her supporting England.Sandpit said:
Ha. Rugby, bringing families together. Teach her the words to ‘Swing Low’.Gardenwalker said:
I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporterSandpit said:
Are you the only Kiwi on this board?Gardenwalker said:Bugger it.
If she cheers South Africa tomorrow I will disown her.0 -
Ferfuxsake we're gong to lose to Wales in the final aren't we?
I'd sooner France won the world cup than Wales.0 -
Yes! Fantastic stuff0
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Easy for me.Big_G_NorthWales said:England v Wales (if Wales beat SA) will be a real test of loyalty in my family
Order of support:
1. All Blacks
2. Wales, Scotland, Ireland
3. Literally anybody
4. England
5. Australia
6. The accursed Springboks1 -
On the other hand, it would be bloody hilarious if we managed anything like that on 36%. Permanent Tory ReichGallowgate said:
Yeah yeahHYUFD said:Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus
Conservatives 3900 -
Now now. I cannot lose in an England v Wales finalTheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake we're gong to lose to Wales in the final aren't we?
I'd sooner France won the world cup than Wales.
I support them both being half Welsh, half English
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Incredible game despite a TMO more bias than bollocks to.brexit bercow.0
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Just having that discussion in the pub with my mates. 😭TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake we're gong to lose to Wales in the final aren't we?
I'd sooner France won the world cup than Wales.0 -
The worst thing about that game is that England played incredibly well: skill, energy, and determination.
I can not fault them.2 -
Yep. It is fascinating how close these teams are at the moment. New Zealand looked spectacular last week. Wales and South Africa have both looked very very good. With the obvious exception of New Zealand now I would not really like to predict who will win out of the remaining 3.nico67 said:Great England performance but each match is different , commentators giving them the trophy already are being very premature .
All the pressure will be on them next week.
But of course if it can't be England I would be delighted with Wales.0 -
Biggest worry for england is how many injuries they sustained.0
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Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!4
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You going to the final?SouthamObserver said:Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!
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And he goes this next week.FrancisUrquhart said:Incredible game despite a TMO more bias than bollocks to.brexit bercow.
Cannot come soon enough.
The pompous, bullying, pro remain speaker has demeaned his office on a scale I could not imagine of any speaker3 -
I do believe this has been the best World Cup ever so far...Japan is an amazing host.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!
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That was the best england performance i have ever watched. England could and probably should have won by 25-30 points.1
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