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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the ne

SystemSystem Posts: 11,689
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the next big electoral test

Next week the LAB MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann is quiting as an MP to take up a government role fighting anti-semitism. He’ll be elevated to the House of Lords.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    First like England (hopefully).
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A lot would depend on Labour's choice of candidate and on whether the Brexit party stood. But yes, Labour hold looks most likely.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's a good argument, and one I ultimately accept. It is, however, a major omission to overlook all the political damage that Leaving is itself causing. Leavers are trashing every civic institution on the way out. Remain or Leave, Britain's political institutions are going to be very badly damaged.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819
    Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.
    Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Bassetlaw? Sure someone's not making this up? Where the hell is it?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    My post went missing so I'll repeat. Mightn't it have been a good idea to put a Jew in charge of a government push to root out anti- semitism?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    edited October 2019
    Fenman said:

    Bassetlaw? Sure someone's not making this up? Where the hell is it?

    North Notts.

    The bit of the A1 before it becomes motorway at Blyth.
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    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    edited October 2019
    Bassetlaw is the constituency that I grew up in and where I cast my first ever GE vote (for the Conservatives in 1997).
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819

    We should be 14+ pts ahead

    Labour without Corbyn? :wink:
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    FPT

    Re the Times survey

    *I am not surprised - Customs in the Irish sea is not acceptable to be fair.

    However, we are where you we and no point in buyers remorse over TM deal which I backed and still would.

    I expect Macron will have his way and it will be a short extension, maybe to the 15th November to pass the deal or to the 31st January to allow time for a GE

    Macron is taking out Merkel as the dominant force in the EU and his plan must be to do everything he can to remove the UK out of the EU and in the recent friendship he has struck with Boris he must see him as someone he can do business with post Brexit

    The striking thing with labour's tortuous route is they have used every kind of excuse to avoid a GE when if they had had any sense they should have immediately accepted the challenge and fight the deal and for a referendum.

    I am amazed both labour and the lib dems did not realise immediately that as only the conservative party are pro Brexit, the combined opposition have a very real possibility of forming a consensus for a referendum post an early GE. I am far from convinced that Boris will get a majority but of course will be the largest party

    It is also the best way to win a referendum which would have a mandate.

    Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of any antennae in the labour and lib dems who had the chance to grab the initiative and by their obtuse reaction they have made it more difficult for themselves, much more difficult.

    * I am aware a FTA will resolve the Irish Sea Customs but that has not cut through and the argument has to be made, and won
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    kle4 said:

    Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.

    Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
    Pretty well anything now will continue the damage for some time, sadly
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    The Conservatives are usually terrible at by-elections, so I'd agree with Mike that the Socialists should hang on, not that they remotely deserve to.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    edited October 2019
    With the Brexit Party far weaker than at the time of Peterborough by election and the Tories polling better on UNS the Bassetlaw by election should be a Tory gain
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980
    Not promising territory for them, but you’d expect some LD increase. The big question is whether that comes more from Lab rather than Con. In seats like this I’d expect a lot less Lab-Con switching than Cummings-Johnson are counting on.
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    Yessssssssss
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,666
    kle4 said:

    Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.

    Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
    I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    With the Brexit Party far weaker than at the time of Peterborough by election and the Tories polling better on UNS the Bassetlaw by election should be a Tory gain

    Yougov this morning would see the Tories gain Bassetlaw with 37% to 35% for Labour.

    Yougov

    Tories 36%
    Labour 23%
    LDs 18%
    Brexit Party 12%
    Greens 6%
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnsons-brexit-plan-fails-to-convince-voters-3mzxthtp5?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1572074946
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    Noooooooooo
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    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.

    Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
    I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?
    Yes without doubt
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Sandpit said:

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
    It's not going to matter. England are utterly bossing this game.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives are usually terrible at by-elections, so I'd agree with Mike that the Socialists should hang on, not that they remotely deserve to.

    It could be like the Copeland Byelection in 2017,giving tories false hope.....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760
    edited October 2019
    https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1188017706831941632?s=20

    If Remainers are going to stop Brexit, they’ll have to beat Johnson in a general election first and then win a referendum. To the Irish Government and the EU, that now looks very unlikely.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
    It's not going to matter. England are utterly bossing this game.
    Hmm...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Mann's vote would have been critical. All starting to fall to bits reallyy.

    Sadly Mr Meeks' response in pretty accurate - the lack of care for anything but Brexit, no matter the cost to other issues, is one of the reasons I turned away from it, and is causing a lot of damage.
    I was struck by one of our resident brexiteer’s remark yesterday ( @SunnyJim ?) that May’s deal would now pass with a large majority. What do people think ?
    No hope of passing without a referendum attached to it. Why would there be? The ERG still wouldn't vote for it, nor would all but 6-8 Labour.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819
    It was until this coming week. He either fails to get a GE and has a strop, or he does and then maybe he maintains it, maybe be doesn't.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,666
    Sandpit said:

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
    Absolutely correct the first time.
    This one was more than questionable.
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    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
    Absolutely correct the first time.
    This one was more than questionable.
    This is the 2007 world cup final all over again.

    An incompetent/biased TMO destroying England's chances.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
    Absolutely correct the first time.
    This one was more than questionable.
    At least he didn’t just give a penalty try against us.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,666
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
    It's not going to matter. England are utterly bossing this game.
    Have you learned nothing from the cricket ?

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819
    Grumble grumble. So much hard work undone in a second. In sport as it is in politics.
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    BJTBJT Posts: 14
    Do you think we can have Bassetlaw, Buckingham & Sheffield Hallam all fixed for the same day?
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    kle4 said:


    No hope of passing without a referendum attached to it. Why would there be? The ERG still wouldn't vote for it, nor would all but 6-8 Labour.

    Yep. Although .... it'd sail through in a free vote.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Have the All Blacks forgotten to eat their breakfast? Go England.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    I see someone has been editing the Wikipedia entry for today's TMO.
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    https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1188017706831941632?s=20

    If Remainers are going to stop Brexit, they’ll have to beat Johnson in a general election first and then win a referendum. To the Irish Government and the EU, that now looks very unlikely.

    This article needs to be read and understood by all peoples vote and remain mps.

    This is exactly my point in my previous post down thread

    They need an election now
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    nunuone said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives are usually terrible at by-elections, so I'd agree with Mike that the Socialists should hang on, not that they remotely deserve to.

    It could be like the Copeland Byelection in 2017,giving tories false hope.....
    The Tories held Copeland in the general election and were re elected
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    On topic this place isn't that far from me and would have been part of the Sheffield City Region and Mayoralty.

    It is one of those places that hasn't fully recovered from the end of the coal industry.

    I think the Tories could win this in a by election (thanks to lazy Labour voters) but a Labour hold at a general election if we don't get a by election.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:

    I see someone has been editing the Wikipedia entry for today's TMO.

    TMO?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    tlg86 said:

    I see someone has been editing the Wikipedia entry for today's TMO.

    Not Guilty.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    AndyJS said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see someone has been editing the Wikipedia entry for today's TMO.

    TMO?
    The video ref:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marius_Jonker
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    AndyJS said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see someone has been editing the Wikipedia entry for today's TMO.

    TMO?
    Television match official.

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    These players are all magnificent and just posses amazing strength and fitness

    Compare and contrast with the play acting, cheating, and pathetic overpaid footballers
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I think the Tories could take this seat, but the brexit party will probably save Corbyn's vegan bacon substitute
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819
    Andrew said:

    kle4 said:


    No hope of passing without a referendum attached to it. Why would there be? The ERG still wouldn't vote for it, nor would all but 6-8 Labour.

    Yep. Although .... it'd sail through in a free vote.
    If, at this point, people won't vote the way they believe, and are tied to the whip, they are cowards, and more likely don't really care to vote for it or they would.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives are usually terrible at by-elections, so I'd agree with Mike that the Socialists should hang on, not that they remotely deserve to.

    It could be like the Copeland Byelection in 2017,giving tories false hope.....
    The Tories held Copeland in the general election and were re elected
    The false hope involved was not just about Copeland itself but for what it seemed to portend for a GE, but you know that.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus

    Conservatives 390

    Yeah yeah
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    The other contrast with football is the attitude to the referees
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    edited October 2019
    At this rate Sir Eddie Jones will be appointed Southampton's Director of Football soon.
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    Yessss
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    All Blacks giving away penalties at a rate only ever normally seen by England on a bad day.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,858
    Bugger it.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,666
    Superb from Ford.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,328
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus

    Conservatives 390

    Yeah yeah
    It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
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    Bugger it.

    What may I ask
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907

    Bugger it.

    Are you the only Kiwi on this board?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,858
    Sandpit said:

    Bugger it.

    Are you the only Kiwi on this board?
    I believe so, yes.
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    Sandpit said:

    Bugger it.

    Are you the only Kiwi on this board?
    My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporter
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus

    Conservatives 390

    Yeah yeah
    It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
    If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,858

    Sandpit said:

    Bugger it.

    Are you the only Kiwi on this board?
    My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporter
    I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.
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    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus

    Conservatives 390

    Yeah yeah
    It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
    If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.
    Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honest
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    Sandpit said:

    Bugger it.

    Are you the only Kiwi on this board?
    My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporter
    I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.
    Funny
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus

    Conservatives 390

    Yeah yeah
    It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
    If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.
    Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honest
    If he is not certain to win a GE then he may not pass his deal, so he should try to pass it now. If he fails, he has more narrative to help a GE win.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819
    Odd to think that but for England gifting NZ 7 pts, they have not otherwise scored.
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    England are going to win this and fully deserve it

    Just irrepressible
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907

    Sandpit said:

    Bugger it.

    Are you the only Kiwi on this board?
    My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporter
    I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.
    Ha. Rugby, bringing families together. Teach her the words to ‘Swing Low’. :D
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    Nice one England. Very good performance.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    ENGLAND!!! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🏉
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    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus

    Conservatives 390

    Yeah yeah
    It is far from certain IMHO Boris will achieve a workable majority, possible but not nailed on
    If it is not certain then his strop is even stranger - trying to pass his deal and being stymied would play well with his audience, and less weak than admitting upfront he cannot do it.
    Not sure I quite understand your sentence to be honest
    If he is not certain to win a GE then he may not pass his deal, so he should try to pass it now. If he fails, he has more narrative to help a GE win.
    Yes, you are correct and that must be his way forward
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
    It's not going to matter. England are utterly bossing this game.
    Have you learned nothing from the cricket ?

    Very comfortable in the end.
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    England v Wales (if Wales beat SA) will be a real test of loyalty in my family
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,666
    I couldn’t even pick a MOTM in that.
    Fantastic all round performance.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,858
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bugger it.

    Are you the only Kiwi on this board?
    My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporter
    I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.
    Ha. Rugby, bringing families together. Teach her the words to ‘Swing Low’. :D
    I can just about deal with her supporting England.
    If she cheers South Africa tomorrow I will disown her.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    Well done England
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Great England performance but each match is different , commentators giving them the trophy already are being very premature .

    All the pressure will be on them next week.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,666
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Noooooooooo

    Damn TMO, that’s twice now.
    It's not going to matter. England are utterly bossing this game.
    Have you learned nothing from the cricket ?

    Very comfortable in the end.
    Yes, but we keep quiet about that until it’s all over.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Nigelb said:

    I couldn’t even pick a MOTM in that.
    Fantastic all round performance.

    I thought Underhill and Itoje were brilliant.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,819

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bugger it.

    Are you the only Kiwi on this board?
    My son has dual nationality but is an avid Kiwi supporter
    I am watching with my 4-yr old daughter who is supporting England, the treacherous viper.
    Ha. Rugby, bringing families together. Teach her the words to ‘Swing Low’. :D
    I can just about deal with her supporting England.
    If she cheers South Africa tomorrow I will disown her.
    Tough but fair.
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    Ferfuxsake we're gong to lose to Wales in the final aren't we?

    I'd sooner France won the world cup than Wales.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,020
    Yes! Fantastic stuff
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,666
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I couldn’t even pick a MOTM in that.
    Fantastic all round performance.

    I thought Underhill and Itoje were brilliant.
    Agreed, but hard to call between them - and there were others, too.
    I thought Ford had a huge game, for one.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,858

    England v Wales (if Wales beat SA) will be a real test of loyalty in my family

    Easy for me.
    Order of support:

    1. All Blacks
    2. Wales, Scotland, Ireland
    3. Literally anybody
    4. England
    5. Australia
    6. The accursed Springboks
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative majority of 130 with Yougov today according to Electoral Calculus

    Conservatives 390

    Yeah yeah
    On the other hand, it would be bloody hilarious if we managed anything like that on 36%. Permanent Tory Reich
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    Nigelb said:

    I couldn’t even pick a MOTM in that.
    Fantastic all round performance.

    That’s probably the best England rugby performance since the 2003 tournament, superb team effort.

    Let’s hope that, unlike the All Blacks, we can have an amazing win two weeks running.
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    Ferfuxsake we're gong to lose to Wales in the final aren't we?

    I'd sooner France won the world cup than Wales.

    Now now. I cannot lose in an England v Wales final

    I support them both being half Welsh, half English

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    Incredible game despite a TMO more bias than bollocks to.brexit bercow.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Ferfuxsake we're gong to lose to Wales in the final aren't we?

    I'd sooner France won the world cup than Wales.

    Just having that discussion in the pub with my mates. 😭
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,858
    The worst thing about that game is that England played incredibly well: skill, energy, and determination.

    I can not fault them.
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    nico67 said:

    Great England performance but each match is different , commentators giving them the trophy already are being very premature .

    All the pressure will be on them next week.

    Yep. It is fascinating how close these teams are at the moment. New Zealand looked spectacular last week. Wales and South Africa have both looked very very good. With the obvious exception of New Zealand now I would not really like to predict who will win out of the remaining 3.

    But of course if it can't be England I would be delighted with Wales.
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    Biggest worry for england is how many injuries they sustained.
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    Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!

    You going to the final?
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    Incredible game despite a TMO more bias than bollocks to.brexit bercow.

    And he goes this next week.

    Cannot come soon enough.

    The pompous, bullying, pro remain speaker has demeaned his office on a scale I could not imagine of any speaker
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,858

    Greetings from Japan, comrades. What a time to be here. Absolutely unbelievable. We’re in an Irish pub currently full of Japanese who have totally ignored the game, except for wondering why three English blokes are hugging each other and almost in tears. What a game, what a performance. I don’t think an England side has ever played better. Just magnificent!!!!

    I do believe this has been the best World Cup ever so far...Japan is an amazing host.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2019
    That was the best england performance i have ever watched. England could and probably should have won by 25-30 points.
This discussion has been closed.