politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas
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The alternative arrangements they wanted was NI in the single market for everything (not just agriculture and industrial goods) and customs territory (not the UK's), and with no right to leave.williamglenn said:
The EU always said that alternative arrangements could replace the backstop. Johnson gave up on the alternative arrangements and chose a permanent framework that separates Northern Ireland.Gabs2 said:
Lol. After months of saying that the EU would never accept Northern Ireland outside being full members of the Customs Union, it is now a softer deal.kinabalu said:
Classic hard cop soft cop.HYUFD said:Well done Theresa May for speaking in favour of the Boris Deal, if it passes much of the credit must still go to her for negotiating most of it
May cuts a tough deal then Johnson plays the nice guy and compromises.0 -
Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.0 -
Which public do you mean ?isam said:It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?
Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?
Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.0 -
Agree. But does he have to write the letter?kinabalu said:
No, forget the detail, the momentum is with this Deal. It will pass either today or very soon.FrancisUrquhart said:So we are back to see what Macron et al have to say.
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He says he is not compelled by law so to do???Gallowgate said:Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.0 -
When in doubt, delay - the motto of the UK Parliament.0
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The deal is now irrelevant. What is relevant is amendments to the withdrawal bill.0
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If you think this makes our politicians look anything other than complete dicks you are wrong.Gallowgate said:Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.1 -
I mean the public, not political obsessives who are the material of opinion pollsWhisperingOracle said:
Which public do you mean ?isam said:It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?
Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?
Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.
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He also said his prorogation of Parliament was lawful.Mexicanpete said:
He says he is not compelled by law so to do???Gallowgate said:Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.0 -
He must send the letter. He has no choice. We can only hope the EU say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris
I will not seek a delay0 -
It does nothing to delay ratification, except for the few hours needed to have a final meaningful vote after the WAIB is passed.kle4 said:
It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.Chris said:
The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.kle4 said:
Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.Chris said:
To you, maybe.kle4 said:
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.Chris said:
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.DavidL said:Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
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ExactlyMorris_Dancer said:The Indecisive Parliament once again doing sterling work avoiding actually making a bloody decision.
I do worry that public contempt for Parliament is going to reach alarmingly high levels.0 -
The public do not care mate.isam said:
I mean the public, not political obsessives who are the material of opinion pollsWhisperingOracle said:
Which public do you mean ?isam said:It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?
Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?
Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.0 -
Remainerism has been reduced to childish hurting of individuals they dislike. It is so pathetic.Gallowgate said:Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.0 -
He said he’s not compelled to *negotiate* an extension. I guess that means he can send the letter saying “gizzus an extension” but when the EU says “for what?” he doesn’t answer.Mexicanpete said:
He says he is not compelled by law so to do???Gallowgate said:Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.0 -
Does he have to write the letter today ?0
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It's about to get a lot more complicated, and Mr Herdson's scenarios are in play. Not sure that Boris can wrangle all the Labour deal supporters through debate on various amendments and add ons.Gallowgate said:The deal is now irrelevant. What is relevant is amendments to the withdrawal bill.
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Is there a school of thought this is a mistake by Boris, his best chance of winning it today, momentum will move against it in coming days not for it!0
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I think I agree with him, sort it out now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris
I will not seek a delay0 -
No - The EU now becomes the focus of attentionGallowgate said:The deal is now irrelevant. What is relevant is amendments to the withdrawal bill.
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Oh dear . The DUP obviousiy aren’t going to be pushed around .0
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Boris can’t be surprised that people do not give him the benefit of the doubt.0
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Doesn't have to. Amended motion passed. There is a deal. Benn was anti no-deal.numbertwelve said:Boris not backing Benn???
See you in court, Jolyon.0 -
Boris absolutely should follow the law, but if a court is going to send the letter for him if he refuses, from his POV why would he not refuse to send it? His supporters care more about his wanting to Brexit than if he followed the letter of the law.0
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It's the reverse. The public is often apathetic to get this nuisance over in whichever way, which the Tories have cleverly retranslated from "let it be over" to to "get it done".isam said:
I mean the public, not political obsessives who are the material of opinion pollsWhisperingOracle said:
Which public do you mean ?isam said:It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?
Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?
Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.0 -
Oh they doGallowgate said:
The public do not care mate.isam said:
I mean the public, not political obsessives who are the material of opinion pollsWhisperingOracle said:
Which public do you mean ?isam said:It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?
Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?
Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.0 -
This thread has been amended, substantively negatived and the matter delayed to the next thread.1
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Presumably all 306 are for the deal? It doesn't sound like anyone voted No were against the deal?HYUFD said:Ayes 322 Noes 306
Letwin passes
In which case 9 who voted for Letwin need to vote for the deal to pass the deal surely? It sounds like there were at least 9 who voted for Letwin who said they would vote for the deal?0 -
The EU has said time and again, that they would if there is an election or a referendum...nothing else.rpjs said:
He said he’s not compelled to *negotiate* an extension. I guess that means he can send the letter saying “gizzus an extension” but when the EU says “for what?” he doesn’t answer.Mexicanpete said:
He says he is not compelled by law so to do???Gallowgate said:Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.0 -
TBH - it is hard to see how he ends up a loser out of thisHYUFD said:
The public is now behind the Boris Deal in all the polls, we now move towards a Tory landslideZephyr said:Is there a school of thought this is a mistake by Boris, his best chance of winning it today, momentum will move against it in coming days not for it!
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Yes.JBriskinindyref2 said:Does he have to write the letter today ?
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It probably won't. But the DUP and the other opposition parties think it gives them the chance to delay it. I don't know what the problem here is. The fight for remain is still live, none of the opposition would deny that. If they can unite around a referendum I'd even support that.Chris said:
It does nothing to delay ratification, except for the few hours needed to have a final meaningful vote after the WAIB is passed.kle4 said:
It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.Chris said:
The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.kle4 said:
Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.Chris said:
To you, maybe.kle4 said:
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.Chris said:
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.DavidL said:Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
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It depends whether the public blame him for seeking a delay. The polling shows that quite a lot of people won't blame him personally.Gallowgate said:Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.0 -
As the motion has passed (albeit amended) I think this satisfies Benn Act and therefore he no longer needs to send letter. Is this correct?0
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Surely the letter is already written?JBriskinindyref2 said:Does he have to write the letter today ?
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New thread0
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It’s purely about trying to embarrass the PM. It doesn’t achieve anything practicalChris said:
It does nothing to delay ratification, except for the few hours needed to have a final meaningful vote after the WAIB is passed.kle4 said:
It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.Chris said:
The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.kle4 said:
Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.Chris said:
To you, maybe.kle4 said:
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.Chris said:
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.DavidL said:Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
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Corbyn should go for an election now, it won't get any better. Boris caught BXP on the hop for a news cycle but he won't be able to maintain that for a whole campaign.0
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He lost trust when Geoffrey Cox went to war. Playing nice today was too little too late.AndyJS said:
He respected the decision of the Supreme Court as soon as it was made.Jonathan said:Boris can’t be surprised that people do not give him the benefit of the doubt.
He approach reminds me of those infamous people in Oxford who trash restaurants and Play nice, pay for the damage and expect to get away with it.
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Remain fight on.
It's not over till it's over.
But it's nearly over.0 -
Letwin now full on support for Boris as remainers jaws drop0
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Presumably if he doesn’t, the judges in the noble officium case will rule that someone else will have to do so?TOPPING said:
Agree. But does he have to write the letter?kinabalu said:
No, forget the detail, the momentum is with this Deal. It will pass either today or very soon.FrancisUrquhart said:So we are back to see what Macron et al have to say.
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Yup, shocking that they've descended to the level of the 'delicious tears of Libtard diehard remoaner scum' brigade.Gabs2 said:
Remainerism has been reduced to childish hurting of individuals they dislike. It is so pathetic.Gallowgate said:Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.
It will be glorious.0 -
Indeed and the important point is that the Protogation was not unlawful until it was declared so by the Supreme Court. Boris would only have been breaking the law had he ignored their ruling.AndyJS said:
He respected the decision of the Supreme Court as soon as it was made.Jonathan said:Boris can’t be surprised that people do not give him the benefit of the doubt.
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As I understand it if the legislation passes next week the bill can come back and we're out.Philip_Thompson said:
Presumably all 306 are for the deal? It doesn't sound like anyone voted No were against the deal?HYUFD said:Ayes 322 Noes 306
Letwin passes
In which case 9 who voted for Letwin need to vote for the deal to pass the deal surely? It sounds like there were at least 9 who voted for Letwin who said they would vote for the deal?
The complication is the letter and the EU's response.
Unless.... He says to the EU hold off on the decision until after next week and next week the deal passes.0 -
The only problem will be if there isn't a majority for the deal. That would have been a problem in any case.kle4 said:
It probably won't. But the DUP and the other opposition parties think it gives them the chance to delay it. I don't know what the problem here is. The fight for remain is still live, none of the opposition would deny that. If they can unite around a referendum I'd even support that.Chris said:
It does nothing to delay ratification, except for the few hours needed to have a final meaningful vote after the WAIB is passed.kle4 said:
It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.Chris said:
The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.kle4 said:
Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.Chris said:
To you, maybe.kle4 said:
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.Chris said:
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.DavidL said:Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
If there isn't a majority for the deal now, I'm sure there will be one after a general election.0 -
I think the EU UK Ambassador serves it to their meeting tomorrow morningsarissa said:
Presumably if he doesn’t, the judges in the noble officium case will rule that someone else will have to do so?TOPPING said:
Agree. But does he have to write the letter?kinabalu said:
No, forget the detail, the momentum is with this Deal. It will pass either today or very soon.FrancisUrquhart said:So we are back to see what Macron et al have to say.
Conservatives walk out on Joanna Cherry0 -
The timescale that's been suggested for an EU decision is the week after next in any case.TOPPING said:
As I understand it if the legislation passes next week the bill can come back and we're out.Philip_Thompson said:
Presumably all 306 are for the deal? It doesn't sound like anyone voted No were against the deal?HYUFD said:Ayes 322 Noes 306
Letwin passes
In which case 9 who voted for Letwin need to vote for the deal to pass the deal surely? It sounds like there were at least 9 who voted for Letwin who said they would vote for the deal?
The complication is the letter and the EU's response.
Unless.... He says to the EU hold off on the decision until after next week and next week the deal passes.0 -
There’s a lot of just get it out of my life built into those polls isn’t there? Would it win a Boris deal v revoke plebiscite?Floater said:
TBH - it is hard to see how he ends up a loser out of thisHYUFD said:
The public is now behind the Boris Deal in all the polls, we now move towards a Tory landslideZephyr said:Is there a school of thought this is a mistake by Boris, his best chance of winning it today, momentum will move against it in coming days not for it!
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I'm curious as to why the DUP aren't in uproar about the all Ireland team which played rugby today.nico67 said:Oh dear . The DUP obviousiy aren’t going to be pushed around .
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Who were the Labour MPs who voted against the Letwin amendment?0
This discussion has been closed.