politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas
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Letwin certainly has less support than Benn.0
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Anyone got a projection for Letwin vote?0
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The response will probably be delayed, to keep the pressure on for next week's votes.rottenborough said:Yes. But what will Macron reply?
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Perhaps we'll see the collapse of the DUP and the rebirth of UUP?SouthamObserver said:The DUP - hilariously - utterly furious. The break between the Tory party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland will have short and long-term implications, but God knows what they will be!
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Opatz a yes0
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I've found PB has gone a bit.... off... recently.Gallowgate said:
Well the Leave vote deserves contempt so there’s that.
Might I ask why this vote, but presumably not others held by the United Kingdom, deserves comtempt?
If there are other votes that do, please, which ones are they?
If it is comtemptable to vote Leave, what should be done about this?
One liners like this add nothing. We need more detail. What should we do, and why?3 -
The UUP is a minority voice in the Unionist community. It’s largely middle class and professional. The DUP represents working class unionism and the farming community. What’s the vote split between the UUP and DUP in Antrim?HYUFD said:
There is no break between the Tory Party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland, Lord Trimble the architect of the Good Friday Agreement (the DUP opposed) and the former leader of the Ulster Unionist party, the Tories sister party, backs the Boris DealSouthamObserver said:The DUP - hilariously - utterly furious. The break between the Tory party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland will have short and long-term implications, but God knows what they will be!
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
All that has happened is the DUP have dumped the Tories in favour of the Brexit Party
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20
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Garett Snell supporting the Letwin Amendment.
Given he’s a Labour dealer then I’d expect his sentiments to be shared by other Labour MPs who want to vote for this deal .0 -
I saw her texted in the Commons thirty minutes ago. Perhaps she should be paying more attention to the goings on in the Chamber?Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/Alison_McGovern/status/1185496249069424640
Anyone who trusts BoZo buttons up the back...0 -
Months ? Decades more like. Intransigent is what they do, it's their USP, and why their supporters vote for them. "Altogether now the cry was no surrender"etc etcCasino_Royale said:
Fuck the DUP. They've been utter exploitative negative barstewards for months. There's nothing they'd ever say "yes" to - nothing.SouthamObserver said:Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.
If they cared that much about the UK and the Union they'd be willing to settle this with a compromise that moved it on and boosted investment, and in their own province in particular.
A few tariffs and regulations either which way isn't going to make any difference to the emotional identity of NI, and it will still be formally outside the EU as well.
They are being ridiculously intransigent.
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Will Bercow allow MV4 to be brought back next week since it will (technically, in amended form) have been passed or defeated today? And what would even the purpose be, why not just bring forward the legislation?0
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Operation Patz for the deal ?
Can't be too many more holdouts now. Has Bill Cash declared yet
?
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That’s a genuine surprise.nico67 said:Garett Snell supporting the Letwin Amendment.
Given he’s a Labour dealer then I’d expect his sentiments to be shared by other Labour MPs who want to vote for this deal .
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I expect the DUP might support the Letwin Amendment, that gives them the chance to get some Amendments onto the WAIB.
They need to be seen to be doing everything possible for the Union cause .0 -
Barclay trashing Grieve here0
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Well of course they support Letwin as it means they can kick the can for a while longer without having to make an actual decision that counts.nico67 said:Garett Snell supporting the Letwin Amendment.
Given he’s a Labour dealer then I’d expect his sentiments to be shared by other Labour MPs who want to vote for this deal .1 -
Yes we do. This is why 'no' to the Deal is now odds on fav, despite there probably being support for it.viewcode said:Woah, we need to talk about this *immediately*. If that is true then if Letwin passes and the Con MPs go home, then the vote *fails*, surely. Everybody is betting on it passing, so if it is now going to fail, we need to talk about this, yes?
So even though (I think) I called things right that the Deal had enough to support to pass - and accordingly bet contra consensus on 'yes' at good odds - it now looks like I might be going to LOSE my money!
Mustn't grumble though - this scenario could have been considered and I failed to do so.0 -
The UUP has always been the Tories sister party and was for the Good Friday Agreement and has a similar voter demographic of supporters to the Tories.SouthamObserver said:
The UUP is a minority voice in the Unionist community. It’s largely middle class and professional. The DUP represents working class unionism and the farming community. What’s the vote split between the UUP and DUP in Antrim?HYUFD said:
There is no break between the Tory Party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland, Lord Trimble the architect of the Good Friday Agreement (the DUP opposed) and the former leader of the Ulster Unionist party, the Tories sister party, backs the Boris DealSouthamObserver said:The DUP - hilariously - utterly furious. The break between the Tory party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland will have short and long-term implications, but God knows what they will be!
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
All that has happened is the DUP have dumped the Tories in favour of the Brexit Party
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20
The DUP was anti the Good Friday Agreement and has a similar voter demographic to the Brexit Party.
If the Tories backed the DUP position they would have to back ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and sending troops back into Northern Ireland to cope with the Catholic and Nationalist backlash at the new hard border with the Republic of Ireland.
Antrim is not the only part of Northern Ireland, in Fermanagh where I stayed last week the UUP are the main Unionist party and indeed it used to have a UUP MP from 2015 to 20170 -
The deal can certainly be voted down if Letwin passes. I am not saying it should be it will be but it can be. In which case Letwin falls as wellrottenborough said:
The deal can't be voted down if Letwin passes if I understand all this.GIN1138 said:What happens if Letwin passes but the deal is voted down?
Letwin changes the motion considerably so that HoC is not granting approval of the deal - it is defering that decision to a later date i.e. when real Bill comes forward.
This is enough to trigger the 11pm dash to Brussels with a letter asking for extension.0 -
As I was saying ...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1185508255746969600?s=210 -
Flint trashes Letwin1
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Where do you want me to start?TheValiant said:
I've found PB has gone a bit.... off... recently.Gallowgate said:
Well the Leave vote deserves contempt so there’s that.
Might I ask why this vote, but presumably not others held by the United Kingdom, deserves comtempt?
If there are other votes that do, please, which ones are they?
If it is comtemptable to vote Leave, what should be done about this?
One liners like this add nothing. We need more detail. What should we do, and why?
Its a xenophobic close-minded regressive project with no positives, that was won on the electorates fears and divisions.0 -
Betfair put up a "how many ayes" market. Unfortunately under199 got hammered already (the scenario where Tories abstain after Letwin passes).
Anyone with inside knowledge can cash in huge at spin I guess.0 -
Flint pulling no punches there.0
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Caroline Flint trashes Letwin
Big moment0 -
Bringing forward the legislation is the plan, according to the BBC:alex. said:Will Bercow allow MV4 to be brought back next week since it will (technically, in amended form) have been passed or defeated today? And what would even the purpose be, why not just bring forward the legislation?
Regardless of what happens on Saturday, the government has said it plans to push ahead with the legislation enacting the treaty agreed by Boris Johnson in Brussels - the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.
They plan to hold the second reading of that bill on Tuesday, which would give MPs a chance to register their support - or not - for Boris Johnson's Brexit deal.0 -
In what way?Big_G_NorthWales said:Caroline Flint trashes Letwin
Big moment0 -
Caroline Flint just rubberstamping her deselection . I can understand her wanting to vote for the deal but trashing other Labour MPs is going to down terribly .0
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That got quite a cheer from the Tory benches and stony silence from the Labour one......dyedwoolie said:Flint trashes Letwin
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That makes the speed of the EC's response to an (post-Letwin) extension letter really critical now. Johnson probably can't persuade anyone to explicitly threaten a veto, but getting them to postpone decision for a few days is very doable.Chris said:
They plan to hold the second reading of that bill on Tuesday, which would give MPs a chance to register their support - or not - for Boris Johnson's Brexit deal.
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She is part of the 19 labour mps for the dealJonathan said:
In what way?Big_G_NorthWales said:Caroline Flint trashes Letwin
Big moment0 -
If the UK does enter the transition period, I think an extension of it next July is nailed on. The only question will be whether it’ll be for one or two years.kinabalu said:
Very good question. We get several years of PM Boris Johnson with a Con working majority. I am not looking forward to this but I'm sure there are those who are. My hunch is that he would not lurch as far to the right as a lot of people think - for example there is IMO virtually no chance of a WTO crash out on 31 Dec 2020 - nevertheless it is not a great prospect as far as I'm concerned.Nigelb said:And then, what ?
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She’s already been reselected.nico67 said:Caroline Flint just rubberstamping her deselection . I can understand her wanting to vote for the deal but trashing other Labour MPs is going to down terribly .
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Doesn’t feel that big then.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She is part of the 19 labour mps for the dealJonathan said:
In what way?Big_G_NorthWales said:Caroline Flint trashes Letwin
Big moment0 -
Penfold!0
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Caroline Flint has a lot of bollocks.
Respect.4 -
If they all vote for the deal it passesJonathan said:
Doesn’t feel that big then.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She is part of the 19 labour mps for the dealJonathan said:
In what way?Big_G_NorthWales said:Caroline Flint trashes Letwin
Big moment0 -
Go Caroline!Big_G_NorthWales said:Caroline Flint trashes Letwin
Big moment
If there's one person that deserves to be "trashed" it's Letwin!
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Francois states in the house the ERG will vote all legislation through.0
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Caroline Flint is a patriot and a heroine!!SandyRentool said:Flint pulling no punches there.
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ERG commit to not being sneaky bastards.0
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They'll have to let Macron do that........rottenborough said:0 -
Peston says Letwin will pass by 5.0
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Francois given ERG's word on the deal.
Trying to get Letwin to pull?0 -
3) Deal passes by one vote, with the LOTO not in the Chamber.edmundintokyo said:Which do we think is a better plotline:
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it
2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow0 -
Anyone think DUP opposition to the deal is a driver for Labour votes in favour?0
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No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.HYUFD said:
Caroline Flint is a patriot and a heroine!!SandyRentool said:Flint pulling no punches there.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!0 -
And you’d believe them .SandyRentool said:ERG commit to not being sneaky bastards.
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Needs some more Caroline Flints from Labour to pass, even with all of ERGBig_G_NorthWales said:
If they all vote for the deal it passesJonathan said:
Doesn’t feel that big then.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She is part of the 19 labour mps for the dealJonathan said:
In what way?Big_G_NorthWales said:Caroline Flint trashes Letwin
Big moment0 -
If Peston's saying Letwin passes then it might just fail.CarlottaVance said: 0 -
Did I ever mention that I voted for her in the Deputy Leadership election?HYUFD said:
Caroline Flint is a patriot and a heroine!!SandyRentool said:Flint pulling no punches there.
Would have been interesting if she had made that intervention from the front bench.0 -
Is the vote 2.30pm?0
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Why are Whips telling Peston this? Whose Whips?GIN1138 said:0 -
Presumably the government could use the WAIB to amend the original EUWA to say the MV requirement is fulfilled by the WAIB passing.alex. said:Will Bercow allow MV4 to be brought back next week since it will (technically, in amended form) have been passed or defeated today? And what would even the purpose be, why not just bring forward the legislation?
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If Letwin falls then surely deal passes comfortably. Is anyone anti Letwin and anti deal?0
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Your post tells us everything we need to know about Corbyn's Labour.murali_s said:
No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.HYUFD said:
Caroline Flint is a patriot and a heroine!!SandyRentool said:Flint pulling no punches there.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!0 -
Not getting this -
If Letwin passes - as likely - Cons abstain on the MV rather than bother to vote 'aye'. Yet you can sell 'ayes' at 313 on the spreads?
Looks like bet of the century so I MUST be missing something.0 -
Disgusting post.murali_s said:
No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.HYUFD said:
Caroline Flint is a patriot and a heroine!!SandyRentool said:Flint pulling no punches there.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!
I hope your Labour is utterly defeated.0 -
There's that old Labour broadchurch again. So good to see it being brought out every so often.murali_s said:
No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.HYUFD said:
Caroline Flint is a patriot and a heroine!!SandyRentool said:Flint pulling no punches there.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!0 -
It’s pretty clear a majority of MPs now want this done. It’s time to let go. We need to move on to the next stage in the knowledge that it is only GB that is going to be harmed by Brexit. That is very good for our international standing. We should not underestimate that - especially with regards to Ireland.0
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Barclay needs to stop before he does more damage to the government.0
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They should have accepted that election...SouthamObserver said:It’s pretty clear a majority of MPs now want this done. It’s time to let go. We need to move on to the next stage in the knowledge that it is only GB that is going to be harmed by Brexit. That is very good for our international standing. We should not underestimate that - especially with regards to Ireland.
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The only MPs worth listening to today are those saying nothing......1
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In your opinion. And don't get me wrong, I'm sure a lot of people who voted Leave didn't really understand what they were voting for, as a lot of people who voted Remain didn't understand either.Gallowgate said:
Where do you want me to start?TheValiant said:
I've found PB has gone a bit.... off... recently.Gallowgate said:
Well the Leave vote deserves contempt so there’s that.
Might I ask why this vote, but presumably not others held by the United Kingdom, deserves comtempt?
If there are other votes that do, please, which ones are they?
If it is comtemptable to vote Leave, what should be done about this?
One liners like this add nothing. We need more detail. What should we do, and why?
Its a xenophobic close-minded regressive project with no positives, that was won on the electorates fears and divisions.
But those who voted in 1975 who voted 'Stay' may also have been led up the garden path. It even said 'Common Market' on the 1975 ballot. That certainly isn't where we are now with the EU.
It's very easy to just shout 'xenophobia', but, at a guess, you didn't vote Leave? Even if you did you will not be able to know why people voted the way they did.
If Leaving the EU is xenophobic, close-minded regressiveness, then what is:
Scotland wanting to leave the UK
Wales the same
Catalonia wanting to leave Spain
California wanting to leave the United States
Presumably, these are all the same?0 -
"How much will it cost me to have you vote against Letwin?"rottenborough said:0 -
That's the idea.kinabalu said:Not getting this -
If Letwin passes - as likely - Cons abstain on the MV rather than bother to vote 'aye'. Yet you can sell 'ayes' at 313 on the spreads?
Check the rules though! Betfair has a specific section in market rules that amendments to today's vote don't change anything. Spin however might claim if Letwin passes that it's no longer a meaningful vote.
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If the whips are telling Peston that it means they are pretty confident Letwin is going down.0
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He won't be. You were close but no cigar on this one.MarqueeMark said:They'll have to let Macron do that........
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Exactly what I thought.SouthamObserver said:If the whips are telling Peston that it means they are pretty confident Letwin is going down.
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What happens if vote passes today unamended, (with DUP opposition) and Corbyn calls VoNC on Monday. Does everyone backing the deal vote for the Govt?0
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My house is on the intersection of Mann, Barron & Flint's constituencies. Labour for Bojo deal heartland lolmurali_s said:
No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.HYUFD said:
Caroline Flint is a patriot and a heroine!!SandyRentool said:Flint pulling no punches there.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!1 -
Election-maps whipped up a quick Letwin count, standing at 299 for, 304 against (10 likely for, 13 likely against, 9 unknown):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ktqCioirDDTRnnWd-1WHuA-7mvjuA5C3rTTrYpZ7mkA/htmlview?sle=true&pru=AAABbgfA3jA*Hp_amNFZhhSchPrg83xlsw#
Not sure how reliable that'll be, they've not had much time to whip it up.0 -
Corbyn would be very brave to do thatalex. said:What happens if vote passes today unamended, (with DUP opposition) and Corbyn calls VoNC on Monday. Does everyone backing the deal vote for the Govt?
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Ireland having a mare.0
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I wonder if Bercow actually wants all this to get out of the way? His legacy as the speaker that fully navigated such difficult times would then be assured. If the bill fails then his tenure will always seem to have been a time of chaos and no result.
Just a thought.0 -
The VONC fails the ex tories back Johnson, plus a few of the indies and labour for deal abstain. DUP probably abstainalex. said:What happens if vote passes today unamended, (with DUP opposition) and Corbyn calls VoNC on Monday. Does everyone backing the deal vote for the Govt?
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Keir Starmer starting magnificently. This is clearly aimed at Labour rebels .0
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Starmer's dad being a toolmaker comes as no surprise. Seems he took his work home too!4
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Well, the DUP has not formally reneged on their C&S deal, and any whipless Tories that vote for the deal today will get the whip back (except if they vote for Letwin I should imagine), so a VONC passing is not certain by any means.alex. said:What happens if vote passes today unamended, (with DUP opposition) and Corbyn calls VoNC on Monday. Does everyone backing the deal vote for the Govt?
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If they vote against it can only be that while they can't vote for the PM's deal, they wouldn't mind it being imposed on them. Which would be, er, interesting...MarqueeMark said:
"How much will it cost me to have you vote against Letwin?"rottenborough said:0 -
Flint knows she will be toast if she votes against leaving.Pulpstar said:
My house is on the intersection of Mann, Barron & Flint's constituencies. Labour for Bojo deal heartland lolmurali_s said:
No, Caroline Flint is a traitor to progressive values. She is an ally to a right-wing Tory hard Brexit. She is a friend to bigotry and the xenophobes.HYUFD said:
Caroline Flint is a patriot and a heroine!!SandyRentool said:Flint pulling no punches there.
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!
I guess she will take her chances with deselection threats.0 -
That will be about Letwin I’d wager.Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
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Yes. It is an important question. I would like to ascertain whether Con abstention is going to occur, because if I knew that I could make some money. Unfortunately PB wants to speak about the 70's referendum or reasons to Brexit or not. So if anybody wants to speak about whether this will or will not happen, I am eager to listen.kinabalu said:Not getting this -
If Letwin passes - as likely - Cons abstain on the MV rather than bother to vote 'aye'. Yet you can sell 'ayes' at 313 on the spreads?
Looks like bet of the century so I MUST be missing something.0 -
Can the vote be timed for when MaoDonnell and Friends are out at the prolong-it-forever party?0
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I suspect the Labour civil war is going to go nuclear next week. Once Brexit is voted through a lot of what was keeping things relatively calm is not going to be there anymore.0
This discussion has been closed.