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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas

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    Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    Boris agrees with Hammond.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Well done England on beating Australia and though to the World Cup semi finals
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    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Glenn, a legitimate argument, but Grieve's proposal is for a three-option referendum.

    Of course, if presented together that would split the Leave vote. And if multi-stage, there'll be arguments about how that works too.

    Grieve’s argument was that you can’t leave off an option that has substantial support, but that’s no longer the case.
    So you’re saying we should leave off Remain, then?
    Remain has substantial support.
    But you cannot say no deal has no support.

    Recent polls have put it at 40% and of course TBP sole purpose is a clean no deal break

    Indeed if a referendum without no deal was proposed I would expect TBP to mount a legal challenge

    The referendum version that is best for the government, and "respects" the original vote the most is one that is actually confirmatory. So govt deal or extend for a further 6/12 months to go back to square one.

    No idea why it never gets a mention, it would pass as people want Brexit over, and is hard to argue against given parliament has failed to reach a consensus.
    Now that we have two deals, Johnson's and May's, that have substantial differences in how they treat the Union with Northern Ireland and in how much divergence from the EU economy is envisaged, it would be perfectly logical to hold a referendum between those two deals.
    I dont think they have substantial enough differences to justify a referendum personally, but wouldnt have a problem with it.
    Isn’t there meant to be a PV march today in London?
    12 noon I think
    Thank you.

    BTW I hope you and your lady wife enjoyed your recent holiday. It sounded wonderful. My husband is quite keen on the idea of something similar but as I am a very bad sailor I'm not at all convinced that it is worth spending a lot of money for me to pass the time afloat with my head down a toilet.

    I like long train journeys instead. One of my great regrets is not doing the train journey from Istanbul to Damascus via Aleppo while there was still the chance a few years ago.
    Thank you and yes it was fabulous throughout

    Modern cruise ships are very stable and the Captains take action to minimise movement as evidenced on our recent 6 day return in quite stormy seas. Also the doctors on board do have medication for sea sickness

    Mind you I share your love of train journeys
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222
    Surely the government should go ahead anyway, regardless of the Letwin amendment. If it passes then it shows that the Deal has Parliamentary support. Then get the extension so that the Bill can go through all the the necessary legislative stages in the next two weeks or whatever. The EU will be most unlikely to refuse that having seen a vote in favour. Then get on with turning the Bill into law without any worry that a No Deal exit could be accidentally triggered.

    Have I missed anything? Or is this whole thing being over-complicated?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,985

    Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.

    Theres an electon coming. Either he wins and doesnt need them or he loses and it doesnt matter. It's not like cutting a deal with them is viable since the only paths to Brexit, May and Johnson, they oppose, and he doesnt get to be tory leader without brexit.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    Deja vu. When May failed to carry the DUP she turned to Labour votes. Boris is attempting the same manoeuvre.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    edited October 2019

    Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.

    Only after the DUP burnt all bridges with the Tories when Paisley addressed a Brexit Party rally last night.

    In any case Lord Trimble has backed the Deal, the most respectable Unionist

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222

    Jonathan said:

    Ken is yes.

    Ken is a yes... to the Letwin Amendment
    No. He said he would vote for the deal and with his integrity he will vote to leave
    Not the kind of person they want in today’s Tory party.
    Yes we do
    Too late. He's been expelled and won't be sitting in the next Parliament, more's the pity. The Tories made a big mistake not electing him as leader all those years ago.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997

    MikeL said:

    One point worth remembering which might help Govt.

    Bercow resigning on 31 Oct (unless he changes mind) - so Govt may have more neutral Speaker less likely to allow derailing tactics if legislation being pushed through in Nov.

    The Speaker who will be elected will be the one elected mostly by the members of the Opposition.
    It will be Lindsay Hoyle. Fair. Safe pair of hands. Affable. Doesn't talk too much. Experienced. Respected. A known quantity.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Government will have to pull the whole day then.

    What a farce Letwin has created!
    The Government has made its own bed.

    If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
    No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.

    And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
    Are you advocating civil disobedience ?
    I am advocating and Boris will push all out war against diehard Remainers using any means possible if Brexit has not passed by the end of the week.

    Obviously if possible that should be within the law though it could go close to the boundary, though personally I would not advocate violence some of the more extreme Brexiteers may decide otherwise
    At what point in time, do you think you became a fascist ?
    There is nothing Fascist about committing to deliver what 17 million people voted for by any means possible but if diehard Remainers wish to call those who respect democracy Fascist you go ahead
    God this is so boring.
    I cannot believe how far he has moved to the extremes
    Watch the film "Mephisto". Explains it all. Fantastic film too.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Government will have to pull the whole day then.

    What a farce Letwin has created!
    The Government has made its own bed.

    If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
    No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.

    And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
    You've lost it. 'State of War' 'Enemy'. We live in a democracy and the democratic process is running it's course.
    Until the democratic vote to leave the EU is respected by MPs for most Leavers we do not now live in a democracy and some will now respond in kind with non democratic protest

    Just listen to yourself ..... it is quite embarrassing.
    I would rather be embarrassed than show contempt for democracy and the Leave vote like you
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.

    Only after the DUP burnt all bridges with the Tories when Paisley addressed a Brexit Party rally last night.

    In any case Lord Trimble has backed the Deal, the most respectable Unionist

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
    Are you talking about the same Trimple who was soundly defeated by....Unionists !
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,985
    Cyclefree said:

    Surely the government should go ahead anyway, regardless of the Letwin amendment. If it passes then it shows that the Deal has Parliamentary support. Then get the extension so that the Bill can go through all the the necessary legislative stages in the next two weeks or whatever. The EU will be most unlikely to refuse that having seen a vote in favour. Then get on with turning the Bill into law without any worry that a No Deal exit could be accidentally triggered.

    Have I missed anything? Or is this whole thing being over-complicated?

    It doesnt show it has parliamentary support for a start, some of them just think that is what it shows .

    But Letwin will be vindicated if the EU do respond in that way. Labour and the opposition would be mad as hell, but if the amended motion is indicative support then the EU would be within their rights to refuse the January extension and offer the short one you suggest.

    But will the EU play ball? They can see the fight to remain or referendum will still be going on, why close the door?
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    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ken is yes.

    Ken is a yes... to the Letwin Amendment
    No. He said he would vote for the deal and with his integrity he will vote to leave
    Not the kind of person they want in today’s Tory party.
    Yes we do
    Too late. He's been expelled and won't be sitting in the next Parliament, more's the pity. The Tories made a big mistake not electing him as leader all those years ago.
    Actually I believe all the conservative rebels who vote for the deal will have the whip restored including Ken even though he is standing down
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ken is yes.

    Ken is a yes... to the Letwin Amendment
    No. He said he would vote for the deal and with his integrity he will vote to leave
    Not the kind of person they want in today’s Tory party.
    Yes we do
    Too late. He's been expelled and won't be sitting in the next Parliament, more's the pity. The Tories made a big mistake not electing him as leader all those years ago.
    Actually I believe all the conservative rebels who vote for the deal will have the whip restored including Ken even though he is standing down
    You can’t trust Boris on anything.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,085
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Government will have to pull the whole day then.

    What a farce Letwin has created!
    The Government has made its own bed.

    If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
    No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.

    And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
    You've lost it. 'State of War' 'Enemy'. We live in a democracy and the democratic process is running it's course.
    Until the democratic vote to leave the EU is respected by MPs for most Leavers we do not now live in a democracy and some will now respond in kind with non democratic protest

    Just listen to yourself ..... it is quite embarrassing.
    I would rather be embarrassed than show contempt for democracy and the Leave vote like you
    Well the Leave vote deserves contempt so there’s that.
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Jonathan said:

    Deja vu. When May failed to carry the DUP she turned to Labour votes. Boris is attempting the same manoeuvre.

    Looks like he is being more successful. What's the quid pro quo, I wonder.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.

    Only after the DUP burnt all bridges with the Tories when Paisley addressed a Brexit Party rally last night.

    In any case Lord Trimble has backed the Deal, the most respectable Unionist

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
    Are you talking about the same Trimple who was soundly defeated by....Unionists !
    Lord Trimble did the hard work from the Unionist side to get the Good Friday Agreement while Paisley cried betrayal then jumped into bed with McGuinness as soon as he got a whiff of power.

    David Trimble is 10 times the man Paisley Snr was and Paisley Jnr is
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    Boris is enjoying himself.

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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    If the Queen's Speech is voted down, doesn't that prevent any legislation being put forward, including the WAB?

    Johnson resigns. Corbyn becomes PM temporarily. VONC in Corbyn. After 14 days faffing around, a General Election is called for five weeks later i.e. seven weeks after next Thursday i.e. 12th December with Corbyn still PM.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Government will have to pull the whole day then.

    What a farce Letwin has created!
    The Government has made its own bed.

    If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
    No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.

    And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
    You've lost it. 'State of War' 'Enemy'. We live in a democracy and the democratic process is running it's course.
    Until the democratic vote to leave the EU is respected by MPs for most Leavers we do not now live in a democracy and some will now respond in kind with non democratic protest

    Just listen to yourself ..... it is quite embarrassing.
    I would rather be embarrassed than show contempt for democracy and the Leave vote like you
    Once again you mischaracterise my view which I have made clear on here more than once. If you had a shred of dignity you would apologise.

    I am not holding my breath.
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    The truth is that Johnson has outplayed, outfought and out-thought his political opponents. He may be a grubby, mendacious, self-centred chancer who will end up inflicting significant damage on the UK and its people, and not give a toss, but on Brexit he has won. Convincingly.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bozo lying already .

    The NI arrangements are default to stay aligned .
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    Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.

    So be it. The deal requires NI consent now so it's appropriate.

    The DUP opposed the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement in the first place so let's move on.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222
    Anyway, it's a lovely sunny day. Far too nice to waste. So I will wrap up warm and plant some spring bulbs.

    Bye!
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    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ken is yes.

    Ken is a yes... to the Letwin Amendment
    No. He said he would vote for the deal and with his integrity he will vote to leave
    Not the kind of person they want in today’s Tory party.
    Yes we do
    Er. You resigned. He was sacked.
    I may have resigned but I am still a conservative and Boris is committed to a deal and if he achieves brexit and moves onto his QS policies I will rejoin
    Me too.... Possibly
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    The truth is that Johnson has outplayed, outfought and out-thought his political opponents. He may be a grubby, mendacious, self-centred chancer who will end up inflicting significant damage on the UK and its people, and not give a toss, but on Brexit he has won. Convincingly.

    He wins the day, but at what cost and with what consequence?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336
    nico67 said:

    Bozo lying already .

    The NI arrangements are default to stay aligned .

    Johnson was sacked from his first ever job for lying, why would he change now?
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    Boris is enjoying himself.

    Did he say "Go on, I'm enjoying this!"? Doesn't portend well.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    He can’t count on Greening.
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    Boris is enjoying himself.

    He is performing as a statesman and in a way I never expected
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Surely the government should go ahead anyway, regardless of the Letwin amendment. If it passes then it shows that the Deal has Parliamentary support. Then get the extension so that the Bill can go through all the the necessary legislative stages in the next two weeks or whatever. The EU will be most unlikely to refuse that having seen a vote in favour. Then get on with turning the Bill into law without any worry that a No Deal exit could be accidentally triggered.

    Have I missed anything? Or is this whole thing being over-complicated?

    It doesnt show it has parliamentary support for a start, some of them just think that is what it shows .

    But Letwin will be vindicated if the EU do respond in that way. Labour and the opposition would be mad as hell, but if the amended motion is indicative support then the EU would be within their rights to refuse the January extension and offer the short one you suggest.

    But will the EU play ball? They can see the fight to remain or referendum will still be going on, why close the door?
    Perhaps the solution for the Government to regain the initiative is for them to declare that the accept Letwin's stated reasons for his amendments and back it! That would put those backing it as a wrecking amendment on the spot...
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    Jonathan said:

    He can’t count on Greening.

    I don't think he was
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,135
    Anybody come up with any more good reasons for Brexit? Last night we established that the main upside came from freedom to feed our pet chickens our leftovers, which I have to be honest felt a little underwhelming given what we are giving up.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,885
    Not started well for BoJo Greening seems to indicate BoJo language is divisive and unacceptable.

    Whats todays timetable?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Government will have to pull the whole day then.

    What a farce Letwin has created!
    The Government has made its own bed.

    If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
    No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.

    And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
    You've lost it. 'State of War' 'Enemy'. We live in a democracy and the democratic process is running it's course.
    Until the democratic vote to leave the EU is respected by MPs for most Leavers we do not now live in a democracy and some will now respond in kind with non democratic protest

    Just listen to yourself ..... it is quite embarrassing.
    I would rather be embarrassed than show contempt for democracy and the Leave vote like you
    Why are you so angry? Your side is winning.

    If you were Boris, you would be being magnanimous, embracing everyone with a big smile, not threatening war against the enemy. Come on. Follow your leader.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    Jonathan said:

    He can’t count on Greening.

    I don't think he was
    He doesn’t have a majority with Greening.
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    HYUFD said:

    Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.

    Only after the DUP burnt all bridges with the Tories when Paisley addressed a Brexit Party rally last night.

    In any case Lord Trimble has backed the Deal, the most respectable Unionist

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
    Are you talking about the same Trimple who was soundly defeated by....Unionists !
    The same Trimble who agreed the GFA. I have a lot of respect for him. Don't you?
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Quite an interesting session this, they all know how many voters are watching so all much more civil.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,358
    edited October 2019
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    He can’t count on Greening.

    I don't think he was
    He doesn’t have a majority with Greening.
    Are you saying this is down to one vote
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    isamisam Posts: 40,987
    We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...

    Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130

    Boris is enjoying himself.

    Did he say "Go on, I'm enjoying this!"? Doesn't portend well.
    Skinner: “He wants to be the President of the Commission!”
    Johnson: “What a good idea!”
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    vikvik Posts: 157

    the PM will have to seek that extension and despite the noises coming out of Brussels this week, the answer will almost certainly be a weary ‘yes’.

    I think a lot of commentators are being excessively over-confident that the EU will approve an extension.

    It's interesting that Macron is making noises about vetoing an extension. It was, of course, another French leader, De Gaulle, who vetoed the UK's attempt to join the Common Market.

    I think, it suits French interests to see the UK out of the EU, because it strengthens French power within the EU. So, it is quite possible that Macron would veto an extension, just to push MP's to approve Boris' deal and ensure that the UK actually leaves.

    Otherwise, an extension, followed by a possible general election, followed by a possible Remain government, would not be something that France necessarily desires.





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    Barnesian said:

    If the Queen's Speech is voted down, doesn't that prevent any legislation being put forward, including the WAB?

    Johnson resigns. Corbyn becomes PM temporarily. VONC in Corbyn. After 14 days faffing around, a General Election is called for five weeks later i.e. seven weeks after next Thursday i.e. 12th December with Corbyn still PM.

    No. Only No Confidence vote now is a formal VONC. QS no longer counts.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    He can’t count on Greening.

    I don't think he was
    He doesn’t have a majority with Greening.
    Are you saying this is down to one vote
    Yes I know. That’s what I said. Point is he needs every vote. Including conservative votes.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,135

    The truth is that Johnson has outplayed, outfought and out-thought his political opponents. He may be a grubby, mendacious, self-centred chancer who will end up inflicting significant damage on the UK and its people, and not give a toss, but on Brexit he has won. Convincingly.

    I agree, as a diehard Remainer we have to accept that Brexit is happening. We need to move on to the next phase of making sure that its advocates are held responsible for its inevitable failure as a project of national renewal. Because as we know they will be working very hard to find alternative scapegoats.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314

    Boris is enjoying himself.

    He is performing as a statesman and in a way I never expected
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1185476222580613120
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Norman Lamb not backing the deal is significant. It means the LDs are united on the issue, and will be more able to attack Labour as the "midwife of a tory brexit" if its Labour votes that see it home. If Lamb had also vote for it that would have been more of a challenge.

    Real risk for Labour now that Corbyn is seen as letting the deal through if he there's no punishment for the pro deal Rebels. However I wonder if the Labour whips have learnt from the Boris example, that threatening MPs to remove the whip beforehand just pisses them off, makes them more determined to be martyrs for the cause. May be better for the Labour whips to simply try and convince the pro deal Rebels why it's a mistake to vote it through.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,987
    edited October 2019

    Anybody come up with any more good reasons for Brexit? Last night we established that the main upside came from freedom to feed our pet chickens our leftovers, which I have to be honest felt a little underwhelming given what we are giving up.

    Give me a minute, I’m on the phone to Hamas explaining the advantages of Israel. Get back to you once they’ve agreed
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow, Johnson burning all bridges with the DUP.

    Only after the DUP burnt all bridges with the Tories when Paisley addressed a Brexit Party rally last night.

    In any case Lord Trimble has backed the Deal, the most respectable Unionist

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
    Are you talking about the same Trimple who was soundly defeated by....Unionists !
    Lord Trimble did the hard work from the Unionist side to get the Good Friday Agreement while Paisley cried betrayal then jumped into bed with McGuinness as soon as he got a whiff of power.

    David Trimble is 10 times the man Paisley Snr was and Paisley Jnr is
    Gosh I can't see any parallels between the oafsih blustering buffoon who stonewalled attempts at forward progress until he himself got his hands on the levers of power before agreeing to do the thing he had apparently opposed on principle and Boris Johnson.
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    isam said:

    We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...

    Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.

    He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    He can’t count on Greening.

    I don't think he was
    He doesn’t have a majority with Greening.
    Are you saying this is down to one vote
    No one had Greening down as a Yes. The surprising one was Hammond who seems to have been given a step to climb down on to, judging by the exchange earlier
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    Norman Lamb voting against. Surprising.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, it's a lovely sunny day. Far too nice to waste. So I will wrap up warm and plant some spring bulbs.

    Bye!

    Sound advice. I have several hundred bulbs to get in the ground today - the first dry day in an age. Will listen to the Ireland v NZ game as I do.

    BTW, if planting bulbs, add some chilli powder around them. It deters mice from making off with them....
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,135
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Government will have to pull the whole day then.

    What a farce Letwin has created!
    The Government has made its own bed.

    If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
    No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.

    And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
    You've lost it. 'State of War' 'Enemy'. We live in a democracy and the democratic process is running it's course.
    Until the democratic vote to leave the EU is respected by MPs for most Leavers we do not now live in a democracy and some will now respond in kind with non democratic protest

    Just listen to yourself ..... it is quite embarrassing.
    I would rather be embarrassed than show contempt for democracy and the Leave vote like you
    Why are you so angry? Your side is winning.

    If you were Boris, you would be being magnanimous, embracing everyone with a big smile, not threatening war against the enemy. Come on. Follow your leader.
    Actually I think HYUFD's anger is prescient. Winning Brexit is going to be a very painful experience for Brexiteers. When previously the public blamed the EU for all their problems, now they will be blaming Brexit. Even the ones who voted for it.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Norman Lamb not backing the deal is significant. It means the LDs are united on the issue, and will be more able to attack Labour as the "midwife of a tory brexit" if its Labour votes that see it home. If Lamb had also vote for it that would have been more of a challenge.

    Real risk for Labour now that Corbyn is seen as letting the deal through if he there's no punishment for the pro deal Rebels. However I wonder if the Labour whips have learnt from the Boris example, that threatening MPs to remove the whip beforehand just pisses them off, makes them more determined to be martyrs for the cause. May be better for the Labour whips to simply try and convince the pro deal Rebels why it's a mistake to vote it through.

    Very good point . Its a great outcome for the Lib Dems and they can really go after Labour now .
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    isam said:

    We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...

    Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.

    He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
    It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,135
    isam said:

    Anybody come up with any more good reasons for Brexit? Last night we established that the main upside came from freedom to feed our pet chickens our leftovers, which I have to be honest felt a little underwhelming given what we are giving up.

    Give me a minute, I’m on the phone to Hamas explaining the advantages of Israel. Get back to you once they’ve agreed
    That's a no then.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,320

    The truth is that Johnson has outplayed, outfought and out-thought his political opponents. He may be a grubby, mendacious, self-centred chancer who will end up inflicting significant damage on the UK and its people, and not give a toss, but on Brexit he has won. Convincingly.

    Yep.

    But the Johnson project - which IS all about him - is not quite done.

    The project was to unseat May, replace her with himself, then cement power with a GE win.

    Brexit was merely grist to this mill.

    Last piece not yet completed - but I have little doubt it will be before too long.

    😡
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    Labour mps for the deal are very quiet
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,874
    edited October 2019

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Government will have to pull the whole day then.

    What a farce Letwin has created!
    The Government has made its own bed.

    If the day is pulled the PM still has to ask for an extension. Or be in court on Monday and face the resignation of the government’s law officers.
    No need, Macron will veto further extension by the end of the week.

    And sod the law officers if they are diehard Remainers and wish to resign let them, we are now in a state of war with the die hard Remainers and if you are not with Boris to deliver Brexit you are now the enemy
    You've lost it. 'State of War' 'Enemy'. We live in a democracy and the democratic process is running it's course.
    Until the democratic vote to leave the EU is respected by MPs for most Leavers we do not now live in a democracy and some will now respond in kind with non democratic protest

    Just listen to yourself ..... it is quite embarrassing.
    I would rather be embarrassed than show contempt for democracy and the Leave vote like you
    Why are you so angry? Your side is winning.

    If you were Boris, you would be being magnanimous, embracing everyone with a big smile, not threatening war against the enemy. Come on. Follow your leader.
    Actually I think HYUFD's anger is prescient. Winning Brexit is going to be a very painful experience for Brexiteers. When previously the public blamed the EU for all their problems, now they will be blaming Brexit. Even the ones who voted for it.
    I’m not really convinced by this.
    Nobody will notice Brexit, except those - largely in the metropolitan elite - who see various investments and funds trickle away to Amsterdam and Frankfurt (edit: and perhaps Belfast, heh).

    Scholars will note (they already do) the downward track of Britain’s economic path, but the man on the street will be too busy watching “Love Island 2025”.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792



    I won't bother to repeat it but needless to say Thomas More's speech as written by Robert Bolt seems apt at this point.

    So yes of course you are right. Johnson cannot break the law. What I do believe he would be quite right to do is resign as PM thus avoiding having to enact the ruling.

    Thanks heavens for some sense from the leave side of the argument.
    What do you make of the Letwin amendment, Richard ? As you know he backs the deal (as, FWIW, do I, however reluctantly).
    Do you really believe it a deliberate wrecking amendment ?
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,874
    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...

    Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.

    He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
    It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
    Big G is an embarrassing Tory fanboy most of the time.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    kinabalu said:

    The truth is that Johnson has outplayed, outfought and out-thought his political opponents. He may be a grubby, mendacious, self-centred chancer who will end up inflicting significant damage on the UK and its people, and not give a toss, but on Brexit he has won. Convincingly.

    Yep.

    But the Johnson project - which IS all about him - is not quite done.

    The project was to unseat May, replace her with himself, then cement power with a GE win.

    Brexit was merely grist to this mill.

    Last piece not yet completed - but I have little doubt it will be before too long.

    And then, what ?
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Surely the government should go ahead anyway, regardless of the Letwin amendment. If it passes then it shows that the Deal has Parliamentary support. Then get the extension so that the Bill can go through all the the necessary legislative stages in the next two weeks or whatever. The EU will be most unlikely to refuse that having seen a vote in favour. Then get on with turning the Bill into law without any worry that a No Deal exit could be accidentally triggered.

    Have I missed anything? Or is this whole thing being over-complicated?

    It doesnt show it has parliamentary support for a start, some of them just think that is what it shows .

    But Letwin will be vindicated if the EU do respond in that way. Labour and the opposition would be mad as hell, but if the amended motion is indicative support then the EU would be within their rights to refuse the January extension and offer the short one you suggest.

    But will the EU play ball? They can see the fight to remain or referendum will still be going on, why close the door?
    Because there comes a point where the 27 will simply have had enough.

    Even if somehow a new referendum were brought about (and it’s possible Leave just wouldn’t engage, denying it legitimacy and so dragging the whole thing out anyway to the next GE) and we remained, what then? They know we are not suddenly as a country going to have found a consensus happy in our EU destiny, like some big version of Ireland. Rather they can see that despite over three years of political carpet bombing millions still want to leave and at a stretch there’s a thin margin either way. In short we’d be a bloody nightmare, a fizzing bomb waiting to explode in their midst again at any point.

    They have a deal, probably despite themselves they’re surprised they can do business with Boris. I suspect Letwin is, ironically, as popular as a fart in a spacesuit right now in Brussels. Brussels too must be getting as frustrated as the rest of us at smart arse rich lawyers pulling verbal chicanery to avoid be seen to frustrate the referendum whilst pretending it’s all about procedure.

    Let’s hope someone over there says “ca suffit”, refuses any extension and MP’s are corralled into , deal, no deal, or revoke. Then at last they will actually have to do what they are paid for and decide, rather than cowardly can kicking.

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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Labour mps for the deal are very quiet

    I think they want to stay quiet until they walk through the yes lobby .
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,985
    Jonathan said:

    Deja vu. When May failed to carry the DUP she turned to Labour votes. Boris is attempting the same manoeuvre.

    Yes, but the passage of times means he should get closer at least.
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    Andrew said:
    Surely this is moot if Letwin is going to pass?
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,135
    If they do this will the referendum amendment to the second motion then pass?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336
    edited October 2019

    Anybody come up with any more good reasons for Brexit? Last night we established that the main upside came from freedom to feed our pet chickens our leftovers, which I have to be honest felt a little underwhelming given what we are giving up.

    The problem is, it depends on what you think is most important. If you prize sovereignty and the ability to tell people you never voted for to go take a running jump, then Brexit sounds like a good idea. It means, for example, in future the EU will be unable to impose arbitrary and disastrous export bans on our agricultural produce via ludicrous rulings by the ECJ that have never quite shaken off allegations of corruption to cover up a massive public health emergency in France (one that has still 25 years later only been partially admitted to). It also means we will not have to explain how a man removed as PM of Luxembourg after he was caught using the security services to rig elections, who is a notorious drunk, who appoints his cronies to key positions they are totally unfit to hold and has never seen a tax evasion scheme he didn’t like is fit to be the chief executive officer of the EU.

    If, however, you think that sovereignty is illusory due to the nature of globalisation and therefore it makes sense to pool our sovereignty in bigger blocs to gain maximum economic and social advantage, while benefitting further from freer travel and greater international co-operation on security and trans-national problems then Brexit is of course the second worst plan of the 21st century (allowing that the Hundred is still the worst).

    The problem is the two worldviews are so completely at variance they cannot relate to each other. Both sides think the other one is so profoundly wrong that there is no point in arguing - both see the other side as the equivalent of flat earthers.

    Your conversation with Richard rather neatly summed up this dichotomy. He explained his view with an example, and you ignored his view and seized on the example, telling him just to ignore laws he didn’t like. In the meanwhile, he cannot understand why you think it’s not important to have control of our laws because he wants to change rather than ignore laws he doesn’t agree with.

    And because of this, we are where we are.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    Boles and Letwin feverishly talking on back row.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    edited October 2019
    Woah, we need to talk about this *immediately*. If that is true then if Letwin passes and the Con MPs go home, then the vote *fails*, surely. Everybody is betting on it passing, so if it is now going to fail, we need to talk about this, yes?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...

    Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.

    He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
    It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
    As he is a practiced dissembler from a young age, I am more inclined to judge him for his actions than his tone.

    It's certainly welcome that he has toned down the HYUFD style rhetoric, but I don't think one can draw any great conclusions from that.
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    HYUFD said:
    It is clear the way the wind of public opinion is going...stop dicking around and get it f##king done. Those that expose doing so are going to benefit.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,985
    If they cannot withdraw then abstaining is just silly. It may not be displaying indicative support as Letwin claims it is, but letting the motion be defeated robs them of momentum.
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    Nigelb said:



    I won't bother to repeat it but needless to say Thomas More's speech as written by Robert Bolt seems apt at this point.

    So yes of course you are right. Johnson cannot break the law. What I do believe he would be quite right to do is resign as PM thus avoiding having to enact the ruling.

    Thanks heavens for some sense from the leave side of the argument.
    What do you make of the Letwin amendment, Richard ? As you know he backs the deal (as, FWIW, do I, however reluctantly).
    Do you really believe it a deliberate wrecking amendment ?
    I honestly don't know. I have tried to follow the arguments back and forth here this morning and no one seems to be able to clarify the effect. My inclination is to say it should be taking at face value in which case I understand its underlying reasons - to try and ensure good faith by Johnson - but fear its consequences which might make it easier for Remainers to vote down the WAIB when it returns to Parliament.

    Bottom line is I don't know and I am not sure any one else dos either.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,985

    The truth is that Johnson has outplayed, outfought and out-thought his political opponents. He may be a grubby, mendacious, self-centred chancer who will end up inflicting significant damage on the UK and its people, and not give a toss, but on Brexit he has won. Convincingly.

    Not yet he hasn't. He's done well, politically, he's achieved something that, good or bad, I and many others did not think he would or could, but it ain't over til the fat lady sings
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Surely this is moot if Letwin is going to pass?

    For today, probably. But in terms of getting the deal over the line later …..
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Surely this is moot if Letwin is going to pass?

    For today, probably. But in terms of getting the deal over the line later …..
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    If they cannot withdraw then abstaining is just silly. It may not be displaying indicative support as Letwin claims it is, but letting the motion be defeated robs them of momentum.
    I am presuming the plan is the EU will say Non to more dicking around...tell us to have another "think" next week, otherwise no deal exit.
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    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...

    Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.

    He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
    It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
    Big G is an embarrassing Tory fanboy most of the time.
    Is that meant to be an attack on my integity.

    I support brexit but not no deal and if Boris achieves a deal and especially promotes his QS he will have achieved my goals and as such I will rejoin the party
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,985
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    Norman Lamb not backing the deal is significant. It means the LDs are united on the issue, and will be more able to attack Labour as the "midwife of a tory brexit" if its Labour votes that see it home. If Lamb had also vote for it that would have been more of a challenge.

    Real risk for Labour now that Corbyn is seen as letting the deal through if he there's no punishment for the pro deal Rebels. However I wonder if the Labour whips have learnt from the Boris example, that threatening MPs to remove the whip beforehand just pisses them off, makes them more determined to be martyrs for the cause. May be better for the Labour whips to simply try and convince the pro deal Rebels why it's a mistake to vote it through.

    Very good point . Its a great outcome for the Lib Dems and they can really go after Labour now .
    It would have been slightly amusing if he had gone the other way as 1/19 in fabour is greater than 10/244 in favour by percentage, so Labour could say the LDs were more a leave party.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    To be fair this is entirely reasonable. Essentially the position is that

    “We are here today because Parliament insisted on a meaningful vote in advance of the introduction of legislation on a withdrawal agreement with the EU. If this amendment is passed then they will, in effect, be repealing that previous decision. So we might as well go home”

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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,874
    kle4 said:

    The truth is that Johnson has outplayed, outfought and out-thought his political opponents. He may be a grubby, mendacious, self-centred chancer who will end up inflicting significant damage on the UK and its people, and not give a toss, but on Brexit he has won. Convincingly.

    Not yet he hasn't. He's done well, politically, he's achieved something that, good or bad, I and many others did not think he would or could, but it ain't over til the fat lady sings
    Boris has done well to play the ERG by pretending to be a despotic No Dealer. They are still lapping it up.

    On the Deal itself, he basically signed up the offer the EU made in 2017. The EU can hardly believe their luck.
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Looking at Survation, the big Tory lead is in the South. North, Labour is doing worse than before but still leads. Midlands, Labour is just 2% behind. In London, LD leads but this can be a tactical battleground.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336
    alex. said:

    To be fair this is entirely reasonable. Essentially the position is that

    “We are here today because Parliament insisted on a meaningful vote in advance of the introduction of legislation on a withdrawal agreement with the EU. If this amendment is passed then they will, in effect, be repealing that previous decision. So we might as well go home”

    As Corbyn won’t be there either, who will lead for the Opposition?
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    Anybody come up with any more good reasons for Brexit? Last night we established that the main upside came from freedom to feed our pet chickens our leftovers, which I have to be honest felt a little underwhelming given what we are giving up.

    A particularly fatuous post from you there.

    Nicomar asked last night for reasons for supporting Brexit and I gave a long and I hope reasonable response. When asked for ways in which it personally impacted me I gave one example. I could give more and have in the past including ending the destruction of archaeological sites wrought by the CAP (I am an archaeologist) or the idiocy of single colour fire extinguishers which has been discussed with our resident fire fighter on here before. I can keep coming up with examples and you can keep ignoring them or trivialising them. But the point is that in thousands of small ways the EU impacts our lives in ways I believe are detrimental and underpinned by a basic flaw in the democratic process as long as we remain in the EU.

    That to me is more than enough reason to want Brexit.
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    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    To be fair this is entirely reasonable. Essentially the position is that

    “We are here today because Parliament insisted on a meaningful vote in advance of the introduction of legislation on a withdrawal agreement with the EU. If this amendment is passed then they will, in effect, be repealing that previous decision. So we might as well go home”

    As Corbyn won’t be there either, who will lead for the Opposition?
    Is Corbyn really still going to his rally in Liverpool?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...

    Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.

    He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himself
    It’s classic bully tactics, your best friend one minute and unrestrained in his attacks the next. You can’t trust the man.
    Big G is an embarrassing Tory fanboy most of the time.
    Is that meant to be an attack on my integity.

    I support brexit but not no deal and if Boris achieves a deal and especially promotes his QS he will have achieved my goals and as such I will rejoin the party
    You appear to have a short memory and a generous forgiving manner to a PM with no integrity.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336

    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    To be fair this is entirely reasonable. Essentially the position is that

    “We are here today because Parliament insisted on a meaningful vote in advance of the introduction of legislation on a withdrawal agreement with the EU. If this amendment is passed then they will, in effect, be repealing that previous decision. So we might as well go home”

    As Corbyn won’t be there either, who will lead for the Opposition?
    Is Corbyn really still going to his rally in Liverpool?
    I assume so. Given he has spent all his life among people he agrees with, I have no doubt he will be more comfortable among a bunch of Labour supporters in Liverpool rather than possibly meeting a lot of Remainers in London.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Might Letwin withdraw the amendment? Can he do this?
This discussion has been closed.