The DUP - hilariously - utterly furious. The break between the Tory party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland will have short and long-term implications, but God knows what they will be!
Perhaps we'll see the collapse of the DUP and the rebirth of UUP?
Well the Leave vote deserves contempt so there’s that.
I've found PB has gone a bit.... off... recently.
Might I ask why this vote, but presumably not others held by the United Kingdom, deserves comtempt? If there are other votes that do, please, which ones are they? If it is comtemptable to vote Leave, what should be done about this?
One liners like this add nothing. We need more detail. What should we do, and why?
The DUP - hilariously - utterly furious. The break between the Tory party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland will have short and long-term implications, but God knows what they will be!
There is no break between the Tory Party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland, Lord Trimble the architect of the Good Friday Agreement (the DUP opposed) and the former leader of the Ulster Unionist party, the Tories sister party, backs the Boris Deal
The UUP is a minority voice in the Unionist community. It’s largely middle class and professional. The DUP represents working class unionism and the farming community. What’s the vote split between the UUP and DUP in Antrim?
Fuck the DUP. They've been utter exploitative negative barstewards for months. There's nothing they'd ever say "yes" to - nothing.
If they cared that much about the UK and the Union they'd be willing to settle this with a compromise that moved it on and boosted investment, and in their own province in particular.
A few tariffs and regulations either which way isn't going to make any difference to the emotional identity of NI, and it will still be formally outside the EU as well.
They are being ridiculously intransigent.
Months ? Decades more like. Intransigent is what they do, it's their USP, and why their supporters vote for them. "Altogether now the cry was no surrender"etc etc
Will Bercow allow MV4 to be brought back next week since it will (technically, in amended form) have been passed or defeated today? And what would even the purpose be, why not just bring forward the legislation?
Woah, we need to talk about this *immediately*. If that is true then if Letwin passes and the Con MPs go home, then the vote *fails*, surely. Everybody is betting on it passing, so if it is now going to fail, we need to talk about this, yes?
Yes we do. This is why 'no' to the Deal is now odds on fav, despite there probably being support for it.
So even though (I think) I called things right that the Deal had enough to support to pass - and accordingly bet contra consensus on 'yes' at good odds - it now looks like I might be going to LOSE my money!
Mustn't grumble though - this scenario could have been considered and I failed to do so.
The DUP - hilariously - utterly furious. The break between the Tory party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland will have short and long-term implications, but God knows what they will be!
There is no break between the Tory Party and the Unionist community in Northern Ireland, Lord Trimble the architect of the Good Friday Agreement (the DUP opposed) and the former leader of the Ulster Unionist party, the Tories sister party, backs the Boris Deal
The UUP is a minority voice in the Unionist community. It’s largely middle class and professional. The DUP represents working class unionism and the farming community. What’s the vote split between the UUP and DUP in Antrim?
The UUP has always been the Tories sister party and was for the Good Friday Agreement and has a similar voter demographic of supporters to the Tories.
The DUP was anti the Good Friday Agreement and has a similar voter demographic to the Brexit Party.
If the Tories backed the DUP position they would have to back ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and sending troops back into Northern Ireland to cope with the Catholic and Nationalist backlash at the new hard border with the Republic of Ireland.
Antrim is not the only part of Northern Ireland, in Fermanagh where I stayed last week the UUP are the main Unionist party and indeed it used to have a UUP MP from 2015 to 2017
What happens if Letwin passes but the deal is voted down?
The deal can't be voted down if Letwin passes if I understand all this.
Letwin changes the motion considerably so that HoC is not granting approval of the deal - it is defering that decision to a later date i.e. when real Bill comes forward.
This is enough to trigger the 11pm dash to Brussels with a letter asking for extension.
The deal can certainly be voted down if Letwin passes. I am not saying it should be it will be but it can be. In which case Letwin falls as well
Well the Leave vote deserves contempt so there’s that.
I've found PB has gone a bit.... off... recently.
Might I ask why this vote, but presumably not others held by the United Kingdom, deserves comtempt? If there are other votes that do, please, which ones are they? If it is comtemptable to vote Leave, what should be done about this?
One liners like this add nothing. We need more detail. What should we do, and why?
Where do you want me to start?
Its a xenophobic close-minded regressive project with no positives, that was won on the electorates fears and divisions.
Will Bercow allow MV4 to be brought back next week since it will (technically, in amended form) have been passed or defeated today? And what would even the purpose be, why not just bring forward the legislation?
Bringing forward the legislation is the plan, according to the BBC: Regardless of what happens on Saturday, the government has said it plans to push ahead with the legislation enacting the treaty agreed by Boris Johnson in Brussels - the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. They plan to hold the second reading of that bill on Tuesday, which would give MPs a chance to register their support - or not - for Boris Johnson's Brexit deal.
Caroline Flint just rubberstamping her deselection . I can understand her wanting to vote for the deal but trashing other Labour MPs is going to down terribly .
They plan to hold the second reading of that bill on Tuesday, which would give MPs a chance to register their support - or not - for Boris Johnson's Brexit deal.
That makes the speed of the EC's response to an (post-Letwin) extension letter really critical now. Johnson probably can't persuade anyone to explicitly threaten a veto, but getting them to postpone decision for a few days is very doable.
Very good question. We get several years of PM Boris Johnson with a Con working majority. I am not looking forward to this but I'm sure there are those who are. My hunch is that he would not lurch as far to the right as a lot of people think - for example there is IMO virtually no chance of a WTO crash out on 31 Dec 2020 - nevertheless it is not a great prospect as far as I'm concerned.
If the UK does enter the transition period, I think an extension of it next July is nailed on. The only question will be whether it’ll be for one or two years.
Caroline Flint just rubberstamping her deselection . I can understand her wanting to vote for the deal but trashing other Labour MPs is going to down terribly .
1) Deal loses by one vote, that of Theresa May, who turns out that when she said she could never split the UK she actually meant it 2) Deal passes by a casting vote, that of John Bercow
3) Deal passes by one vote, with the LOTO not in the Chamber.
Will Bercow allow MV4 to be brought back next week since it will (technically, in amended form) have been passed or defeated today? And what would even the purpose be, why not just bring forward the legislation?
Presumably the government could use the WAIB to amend the original EUWA to say the MV requirement is fulfilled by the WAIB passing.
It’s pretty clear a majority of MPs now want this done. It’s time to let go. We need to move on to the next stage in the knowledge that it is only GB that is going to be harmed by Brexit. That is very good for our international standing. We should not underestimate that - especially with regards to Ireland.
It’s pretty clear a majority of MPs now want this done. It’s time to let go. We need to move on to the next stage in the knowledge that it is only GB that is going to be harmed by Brexit. That is very good for our international standing. We should not underestimate that - especially with regards to Ireland.
Well the Leave vote deserves contempt so there’s that.
I've found PB has gone a bit.... off... recently.
Might I ask why this vote, but presumably not others held by the United Kingdom, deserves comtempt? If there are other votes that do, please, which ones are they? If it is comtemptable to vote Leave, what should be done about this?
One liners like this add nothing. We need more detail. What should we do, and why?
Where do you want me to start?
Its a xenophobic close-minded regressive project with no positives, that was won on the electorates fears and divisions.
In your opinion. And don't get me wrong, I'm sure a lot of people who voted Leave didn't really understand what they were voting for, as a lot of people who voted Remain didn't understand either.
But those who voted in 1975 who voted 'Stay' may also have been led up the garden path. It even said 'Common Market' on the 1975 ballot. That certainly isn't where we are now with the EU.
It's very easy to just shout 'xenophobia', but, at a guess, you didn't vote Leave? Even if you did you will not be able to know why people voted the way they did.
If Leaving the EU is xenophobic, close-minded regressiveness, then what is: Scotland wanting to leave the UK Wales the same Catalonia wanting to leave Spain California wanting to leave the United States
If Letwin passes - as likely - Cons abstain on the MV rather than bother to vote 'aye'. Yet you can sell 'ayes' at 313 on the spreads?
That's the idea.
Check the rules though! Betfair has a specific section in market rules that amendments to today's vote don't change anything. Spin however might claim if Letwin passes that it's no longer a meaningful vote.
I wonder if Bercow actually wants all this to get out of the way? His legacy as the speaker that fully navigated such difficult times would then be assured. If the bill fails then his tenure will always seem to have been a time of chaos and no result.
What happens if vote passes today unamended, (with DUP opposition) and Corbyn calls VoNC on Monday. Does everyone backing the deal vote for the Govt?
Well, the DUP has not formally reneged on their C&S deal, and any whipless Tories that vote for the deal today will get the whip back (except if they vote for Letwin I should imagine), so a VONC passing is not certain by any means.
"How much will it cost me to have you vote against Letwin?"
If they vote against it can only be that while they can't vote for the PM's deal, they wouldn't mind it being imposed on them. Which would be, er, interesting...
If Letwin passes - as likely - Cons abstain on the MV rather than bother to vote 'aye'. Yet you can sell 'ayes' at 313 on the spreads?
Looks like bet of the century so I MUST be missing something.
Yes. It is an important question. I would like to ascertain whether Con abstention is going to occur, because if I knew that I could make some money. Unfortunately PB wants to speak about the 70's referendum or reasons to Brexit or not. So if anybody wants to speak about whether this will or will not happen, I am eager to listen.
I suspect the Labour civil war is going to go nuclear next week. Once Brexit is voted through a lot of what was keeping things relatively calm is not going to be there anymore.
Comments
Might I ask why this vote, but presumably not others held by the United Kingdom, deserves comtempt?
If there are other votes that do, please, which ones are they?
If it is comtemptable to vote Leave, what should be done about this?
One liners like this add nothing. We need more detail. What should we do, and why?
Given he’s a Labour dealer then I’d expect his sentiments to be shared by other Labour MPs who want to vote for this deal .
Can't be too many more holdouts now. Has Bill Cash declared yet
They need to be seen to be doing everything possible for the Union cause .
https://youtu.be/vDs57R6MYsY
So even though (I think) I called things right that the Deal had enough to support to pass - and accordingly bet contra consensus on 'yes' at good odds - it now looks like I might be going to LOSE my money!
Mustn't grumble though - this scenario could have been considered and I failed to do so.
The DUP was anti the Good Friday Agreement and has a similar voter demographic to the Brexit Party.
If the Tories backed the DUP position they would have to back ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and sending troops back into Northern Ireland to cope with the Catholic and Nationalist backlash at the new hard border with the Republic of Ireland.
Antrim is not the only part of Northern Ireland, in Fermanagh where I stayed last week the UUP are the main Unionist party and indeed it used to have a UUP MP from 2015 to 2017
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1185508255746969600?s=21
Its a xenophobic close-minded regressive project with no positives, that was won on the electorates fears and divisions.
Anyone with inside knowledge can cash in huge at spin I guess.
Big moment
Regardless of what happens on Saturday, the government has said it plans to push ahead with the legislation enacting the treaty agreed by Boris Johnson in Brussels - the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.
They plan to hold the second reading of that bill on Tuesday, which would give MPs a chance to register their support - or not - for Boris Johnson's Brexit deal.
Respect.
If there's one person that deserves to be "trashed" it's Letwin!
Trying to get Letwin to pull?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1185509340133888001
If there is any justice in the World, she will shortly be de-selected. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The fact we have trash like her in the Labour party just shows how far Labour has sunk!
Would have been interesting if she had made that intervention from the front bench.
If Letwin passes - as likely - Cons abstain on the MV rather than bother to vote 'aye'. Yet you can sell 'ayes' at 313 on the spreads?
Looks like bet of the century so I MUST be missing something.
I hope your Labour is utterly defeated.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1185511809945608192
But those who voted in 1975 who voted 'Stay' may also have been led up the garden path. It even said 'Common Market' on the 1975 ballot. That certainly isn't where we are now with the EU.
It's very easy to just shout 'xenophobia', but, at a guess, you didn't vote Leave? Even if you did you will not be able to know why people voted the way they did.
If Leaving the EU is xenophobic, close-minded regressiveness, then what is:
Scotland wanting to leave the UK
Wales the same
Catalonia wanting to leave Spain
California wanting to leave the United States
Presumably, these are all the same?
Check the rules though! Betfair has a specific section in market rules that amendments to today's vote don't change anything. Spin however might claim if Letwin passes that it's no longer a meaningful vote.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ktqCioirDDTRnnWd-1WHuA-7mvjuA5C3rTTrYpZ7mkA/htmlview?sle=true&pru=AAABbgfA3jA*Hp_amNFZhhSchPrg83xlsw#
Not sure how reliable that'll be, they've not had much time to whip it up.
Just a thought.
I guess she will take her chances with deselection threats.