politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach diff
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Eh? Scotland's got a land border with England. And effectively borders at every seaport, every air port ...HYUFD said:
Scotland does not have a history of terrorism unlike Northern Ireland, nor does it have a border with another EU nation like Northern Ireland.Scott_P said:
It really doesn'tHYUFD said:the Boris Deal keeps the UK just with looser ties
It has already carved off NI, and as pointed out earlier, if NI can have special arrangements, why can't Scotland?
The Little Englanders have prioritized Brexit over the Union.
Avoiding No Deal will be enough for most Scots bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
Are you seriously telling us that terrorism is the only route to exerting the existing triple democratic mandate for indyref2 simply because some English nationalists don't want indyref2?
And you keep denying the fact that the resolution of Brexit will collapse the currently-up-in-the-air probnability function of Schrodinger's cat of support for the Union in a way not necessarily to the moggy's advantage.
In this as in so many other ways to do with Brexit, I have to agree with many other posters, we are only at the end of the beginning. And Oblitussumme's analysis is very interesting from this point of view.0 -
That’s a wrecking amendment- will blow everything upSouthamObserver said:This looks significant ...
https://twitter.com/conunit_ucl/status/1185085981826977794?s=21
It should be “approve in principle subject to”0 -
No, I genuinely mean It. Dumping on Ireland yet again via a No Deal would have been absolutely disastrous for the UK. We would have moved from laughing stock to pariah. Johnson’s deal prevents that. It’s the main reason why I hope (and trust) it will pass.Casino_Royale said:
Whenever @SouthamObserver writes a post like that it’s pretty obvious he’s trying to troll Brexiteers.Charles said:
This is not about winning and losingSouthamObserver said:One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
TSE is better at it.
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The SNP have striven mightily to shut down any talk of a border at Gretna - Boris deal makes that more likely so the case for Sindy has just got harder to sell.Foxy said:
Therefore if Brexit means coming out of the European single market then there is going to be a hard border. And Scotland is either going to stay within that UK hard border or it is going to come out of the UK and get into the EU, then it will be on the other side of that hard border.”
https://www.scotsman.com/news-2-15012/snp-seeks-a-way-to-avoid-border-checkpoints-after-independence-1-42084800 -
With the Bannon loving, ethno-nationalist, “citizens of nowhere”, “enemies of the people”, “letterboxes” administration we have had since 2015 we are probably the most illiberal country (currently) in the EU behind Hungary. As for being a force for good, especially in the context of Ireland, read a book.Charles said:The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminished
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The BXP goon on BBCQT last night was opposed, and getting more support than the Surrender Deal.148grss said:
And Farage, but I'm not sure how many Leavers he now represents.Casino_Royale said:Twitter: all the straws in the wind are that all Brexiteers are backing this, even high priestesses like Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer, should Johnson should get away with it on that flank.
Only the DUP who don’t like it at present.
I have seen some online anti Deal messaging from Leavers, saying that this is a betrayal from Johnson and stuff, but I don't know how much of a representative sample this is.0 -
If the vote is tied on Saturday does Bercow have to vote with the govt.?
Wouldnt that just be the best Karma.....0 -
@moonshine. I know what a short is but I don't know how to buy one. I dont know what an EFT is and I don't know how to buy one.0
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You may be right. Much will depend on whether the PM will now prioritise the US over the EU. I rather fear he will and as a result Britain will be shafted twice over.Casino_Royale said:
I’m relatively relaxed about that, to be honest.Cyclefree said:
Another way in which this deal is worse than May’s deal is that at the end of the transition period Britain faces a cliff edge if no FTA has been agreed - a crash out or a further transition - whereas May’s deal had the backstop, which removed the cliff edge. So we will be going through this all over again in little over a year.Stuartinromford said:
And presumably it starts coming soon, given that the initial transition deadline is the end of net year. By which time the UK either needs a frictionless trade deal with the EU or the facilities to deal with the friction or an extension.edmundintokyo said:
There's plenty more it where that came from.alex. said:Do you think his brand will remain the same post Brexit? The problem for the Libdems will be that their current Brexit policies are a solution to “making it all go away”. If Brexit happens they will suddenly be potentially positioning themselves as promising to make it all come back.
And that gives the EU even more leverage than it has as a result of this deal over Britain.
In essence Boris has kicked the can down the road just like May did by weakening Britain’s position in order to get something now. It is the very essence of short-termist thinking.
Thank you to @OblitusSumMe for a very interesting header.
Shitloads of groundwork will have been done by both sides on the full FTA (behind the scenes) and the UK and EU will know roughly where they’re heading. All the really contentious and emotional stuff about citizens rights, divorce and NI will have been dealt with so it’ll be about tariffs, services access, EU programme cooperation and payments.
Yes, it requires unanimity and the Walloon Parliament etc. but if a Deal is reached it will go through in 12 months because no EU country will want to risk a No Deal then either.
The Tories under Boris have now turned into an English nationalist party but are also very determinedly following Trump’s playbook. I see nothing good coming from that - for the rest of us anyway.0 -
Which is pretty damned feeble, if he gets an effective date of 31st October in the deal..... "We left on 31st October, 2019. It says so here....."Sandpit said:
Because the *ONLY* thing the Opposition cares about, is seeing Johnson’s signature on the extension letter. If you look at everything through that prism it all starts to make sense.Casino_Royale said:
It looks like punting approval for the WA from a “meaningful vote” to the actual new Act of Parliament that would need to follow a week or two later.SouthamObserver said:This looks significant ...
https://twitter.com/conunit_ucl/status/1185085981826977794?s=21
But, I don’t get it. That’s always been required. A meaningful vote is just that - a show of hands.
Yes, more time may be needed (extension) to pass the deal and all its associated legislation, but why then leave out Deal from them amendment?
It suggests they’re worried they’ll lose and want another couple of weeks to rally political support to defeat it, but they could do that anyway.
Labour's entire problem with the Boris Deal is that Boris got it.2 -
The hero of Remain would vote for Brexit when in this instance following precedent delays it? (As nothing would be confirmed, requiring an extension)Henry_C said:0 -
It makes NI slightly more of a special case than it currently is already.SouthamObserver said:
No, I genuinely mean It. Dumping on Ireland yet again via a No Deal would have been absolutely disastrous for the UK. We would have moved from laughing stock to pariah. Johnson’s deal prevents that. It’s the main reason why I hope (and trust) it will pass.Casino_Royale said:
Whenever @SouthamObserver writes a post like that it’s pretty obvious he’s trying to troll Brexiteers.Charles said:
This is not about winning and losingSouthamObserver said:One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
TSE is better at it.
I’m comfortable with that.1 -
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU (SNP policy) then with the Boris deal between rUK and the EU there would not only be customs points but also immigration checks on the border with England. (There's no McGFA). Cue 65%+ for No to independence.CarlottaVance said:
The SNP could change their policy to being outside the EU and in a CU and SM with rUK, but they would be pushed for answers to the questions 1. "Why bother?" and 2. "What if rUK says no?"0 -
Interesting article, thanks - OSM is very welcome above the line. The prevailing expectation seems to be that the deal will pass and the referendum backers don't feel they have the votes,, which after all the psychodrama feels a bit flat. As Timothy perhaps implies, we've ended up with the less attractive deal for most people - not because we've weighed them up but because the music stopped at the moment when Boris had grabbed the chair. It suits him for now; as a way of deciding the national future it's suboptimal.
Assuming that's right, the opposition parties all need to scratch their heads over what to do now. Labour will want to change the subject - what about those 30 hospitals, eh? - but may struggle to do so as we stumble into the transition period. The LibDems will be tempted to go for Return, the logical extension of Revoke, but I'm not sure even most LibDem voters have the stomach for restarting an application to join all over again - let alone EU countries.0 -
The Black Watch were formed as a Loyalist regiment as I recall, though may well be less Unionist now.Charles said:
It would be a Black Watch if you were ever in charge of humour on this siteAlistair said:
Will there be any guards?Scott_P said:
YesHYUFD said:bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
At Coldstream.
Will there be Coldstream Guards?
You see I'm making a joke as there is a famous military.....0 -
Labour's electoral problem is Corbyn, not a lack of Brexitness.HYUFD said:0 -
I don’t think surrender deal works. It’s only a surrender if you really care about the Union and most BXP voters don’t. The more interesting point is whether people who have never voted Tory in their lives will feel the need to if Brexit happens before an election.Foxy said:
I think probably not too, but shall do what I can. I see a lot of LD second places, with gains then likely in 2025.SouthamObserver said:
Yep. But I doubt the LDs can prevent a good-sized Tory majority.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.kyf_100 said:
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.alex. said:Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Perhaps the big unknown is how the BXP will react to BoZo's Surrender Deal.
I have secured my own investments quite well for Brexit, and BoZo's NHS spending and tax cuts for those over £80 000 will be some compensation.
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Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.kyf_100 said:
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.SouthamObserver said:My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.0 -
This is why so many ERG’ers are happy IMHO:
“Article 4 - Customs Territory of the United Kingdom
Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom.
Accordingly, nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from including Northern Ireland in the territorial scope of any agreements it may conclude with third countries, provided that those agreements do not prejudice the application of this Protocol.
In particular, nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from concluding agreements with a third country that grant goods produced in Northern Ireland preferential access to that country’s market on the same terms as goods produced in other parts of the United Kingdom.
Nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from including Northern Ireland in the territorial scope of its Schedules of Concessions annexed to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994.”1 -
What an utterly stupid and crass last sentence. What on earth has happened to youHYUFD said:
He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.Scott_P said:
YesHYUFD said:bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists0 -
He doesnt have to vote in any particular way. I dislike Bercows inconsistent commitment to precedent and convention but hes right sometimes you do have to set new precedents. But I think actually following it would mean a no - thered be no genuine majority for a major change. No means various options are still open.timmo said:If the vote is tied on Saturday does Bercow have to vote with the govt.?
Wouldnt that just be the best Karma.....0 -
When an election comes the smaller parties and indeed Labour will get more coverage and probably more support in the polls.Casino_Royale said:
Indeed, he’s miscalculated.Scott_P said:
Poor Nigel Fucking Farage, forgotten so quickly...Casino_Royale said:Twitter: all the straws in the wind are that all Brexiteers are backing this, even high priestesses like Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer, should Johnson should get away with it on that flank.
Only the DUP who don’t like it at present.
His betrayal soundtrack isn’t getting much traction this time, and he’s largely shut out of the news.
However, what happens to the limited company known as The Brexit Party? They have MEPs but no MPs and I'm guessing only a handful of councillors, so do they get any PPBs or much coverage outside of the Daily Express?0 -
Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."Scott_P said:
Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting".....2 -
Obviously it is better for Johnson for this to pass. But if it doesn't pass is it better for it to be a small gap, where he can ask for another vote and hope to convince the maybe half dozen votes he needs, or a big gap, where he can justify a GE because he could never convince 2 dozen votes without losing other votes on his side?kle4 said:
Seems optimistic on the independent conservatives to me, and on how many ERG hardliners will back it. It's a good 13 higher than my highest estimate. It's so close with view additional labour votes that it really should be able pass if it's right.Foxy said:Do these numbers seem correct?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1184900824608264193?s=19
We have had theories befote that some labour votes will unlock simply because if it is close, as before that it is not worth sticking your neck out. I wonder if the reverse is also possible, and some who are potential yes votes are holding off as they know 3-4 more will see it through and so think they can wait for one of the others to jump the line first.
I assume he would prefer 2nd course of action, as he will still have the problem "post Brexit" (should such a time exist) that he still won't have a majority for his domestic policy. Should Brexit pass out of the political zeitgeist (HA) and Labour picks a new Leader by 2022, Johnson may have had a few years as PM, but unable to do anything, and Labour could storm to government.
In this vein, listening to the Red Box podcast, they were discussing how the electorate rarely rewards governments for what they do, and instead votes on what more they promise. Churchill won the war, but Labour won the peace. Could we get the same with Brexit?0 -
It was argued that there were few Labour rebels on the votes for May's deal because there was no point in receiving the criticism for rebelling when it couldn't affect the outcome of the vote.Peter_the_Punter said:
Noted with thanks, Obitus.OblitusSumMe said:
Thanks PtP. You are right that I'm not entirely serious with my referendum suggestion.Peter_the_Punter said:Very well thought through and explained. Thank you, Obitus.
It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.
Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.
A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.
It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
I'm not sure I follow your final point. Surely there will be more Labour rebels if they are sure there are a lot of ERG rebels (because they can rebel without advers consequences.) Am I missing something? It is early for me.
If there are few ERG rebels then a Labour rebel might be able to pass the deal by rebelling.0 -
Yes, withholds approval reads like another vote would be needed.Charles said:
That’s a wrecking amendment- will blow everything upSouthamObserver said:This looks significant ...
https://twitter.com/conunit_ucl/status/1185085981826977794?s=21
It should be “approve in principle subject to”0 -
Only in your head.DougSeal said:
we are probably the most illiberal country (currently) in the EU behind Hungary.Charles said:The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminished
In the real world the UK is the only large EU country in the 'top 10' of most liberal countries in the world and is one of the 6 out of the 28 to make the top 10:
http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/most-liberal-countries/
Of the top 10 most liberal countries in the world, more than half the people resident in them live in the UK.4 -
TM is voting for the dealScott_P said:
Still waiting for the banter possibility of May voting against this deal...Jonathan said:If Boris succeeds first time around it will be because May failed three times before that. Why did she fail? Because Boris undermined her.
If May had brought back this deal Boris would have opposed it. It is the circumstances of her defeat that now make it possible.
To that extent Boris has played a blinder, but it’s nothing to be proud of.0 -
I suspect if NI voted to join RoI a way would be found to make that happenHenry_C said:
Not only for them. There would have to be majorities both sides of the border.Charles said:
This is not about winning and losingSouthamObserver said:One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them0 -
Can we apply the same to the idiots who use the term “snowflake”?MarqueeMark said:
Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."Scott_P said:
Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting".....1 -
Welcome to the “liberal” Tory Party. Not authoritarian at all, no not at all.HYUFD said:
He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.Scott_P said:
YesHYUFD said:bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists0 -
"Taking back control" is meaningless and pointless arsewittery.
Unless you're a tax "avoider".0 -
Allying itself with Trump’s USA as Boris’s Tories want to do is rather going to diminish Britain’s standing in the world. But that’s the choice the Tories - and those who vote for them - will be making. Fair enough: just don’t give us all this hypocritical guff about being the patriotic unionist party at the same time.Charles said:
The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminishedSouthamObserver said:
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.HYUFD said:
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent is removed from the EU and Irish side but clearly the ERG and Leavers could not support stopping Brexit and reversing the Leave vote or a BINO Brexit that is in most respects staying in the EU in all but name with free movement and the inability to do our own trade deals.SouthamObserver said:All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too.
The other way of course would have been to go to No Deal and impose a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland complete with checkpoints etc. The DUP might support that, as would some ERG hardliners like Owen Paterson however it would have made a return to terrorism and the Troubles in Northern Ireland likely and polls show a majority of Northern Ireland voters prefer a United Ireland to a hard border with the Republic of Ireland anyway so it would not in reality preserve the UK at all. Even if the British did not impose a hard border the Irish likely would have done and it would have required ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and the sending of troops back into Northern Ireland to keep the angry Catholic and Nationalist community under control and deal with a resurgent IRA.
Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union0 -
I’m a Unionist. I have no truck with English nationalism.Cyclefree said:
You may be right. Much will depend on whether the PM will now prioritise the US over the EU. I rather fear he will and as a result Britain will be shafted twice over.Casino_Royale said:
I’m relatively relaxed about that, to be honest.Cyclefree said:
Another way in which this deal is worse than May’s deal is that at the end of the transition period Britain faces a cliff edge if no FTA has been agreed - a crash out or a further transition - whereas May’s deal had the backstop, which removed the cliff edge. So we will be going through this all over again in little over a year.Stuartinromford said:
And presumably it starts coming soon, given that the initial transition deadline is the end of net year. By which time the UK either needs a frictionless trade deal with the EU or the facilities to deal with the friction or an extension.edmundintokyo said:
There's plenty more it where that came from.alex. said:Do you think his brand will remain the same post Brexit? The problem for the Libdems will be that their current Brexit policies are a solution to “making it all go away”. If Brexit happens they will suddenly be potentially positioning themselves as promising to make it all come back.
And that gives the EU even more leverage than it has as a result of this deal over Britain.
In essence Boris has kicked the can down the road just like May did by weakening Britain’s position in order to get something now. It is the very essence of short-termist thinking.
Thank you to @OblitusSumMe for a very interesting header.
Shitloads of groundwork will have been done by both sides on the full FTA (behind the scenes) and the UK and EU will know roughly where they’re heading. All the really contentious and emotional stuff about citizens rights, divorce and NI will have been dealt with so it’ll be about tariffs, services access, EU programme cooperation and payments.
Yes, it requires unanimity and the Walloon Parliament etc. but if a Deal is reached it will go through in 12 months because no EU country will want to risk a No Deal then either.
The Tories under Boris have now turned into an English nationalist party but are also very determinedly following Trump’s playbook. I see nothing good coming from that - for the rest of us anyway.
We’ll see. Boris would be advised to wrap up the Deal with the EU *before* the next US presidential election and President take office. Trump may not be around in 14 months time.0 -
Surely Labour must be able to dig under its collective toenail and find a leader more popular than a having dose of dysentery.FF43 said:
Labour's electoral problem is Corbyn, not a lack of Brexitness.HYUFD said:
You know - one who hasn’t paraded under the Soviet flag and who wants us to be turned into Airstrip One.0 -
Mr. Seal, hasn't the burka/niqab been banned, fully or partially, in various EU nations?1
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If you don’t know what a financial instrument is you’re best advised not to buy it.viewcode said:@moonshine. I know what a short is but I don't know how to buy one. I dont know what an EFT is and I don't know how to buy one.
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Absolutely. Johnson’s deal fulfils the moral obligation the UK owes to Ireland. I think that part of it, at least, is worth celebrating.Casino_Royale said:
It makes NI slightly more of a special case than it currently is already.SouthamObserver said:
No, I genuinely mean It. Dumping on Ireland yet again via a No Deal would have been absolutely disastrous for the UK. We would have moved from laughing stock to pariah. Johnson’s deal prevents that. It’s the main reason why I hope (and trust) it will pass.Casino_Royale said:
Whenever @SouthamObserver writes a post like that it’s pretty obvious he’s trying to troll Brexiteers.Charles said:
This is not about winning and losingSouthamObserver said:One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
TSE is better at it.
I’m comfortable with that.
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OK, got it, but still seems a bit counter-intuitive to me.OblitusSumMe said:
It was argued that there were few Labour rebels on the votes for May's deal because there was no point in receiving the criticism for rebelling when it couldn't affect the outcome of the vote.Peter_the_Punter said:
Noted with thanks, Obitus.OblitusSumMe said:
Thanks PtP. You are right that I'm not entirely serious with my referendum suggestion.Peter_the_Punter said:Very well thought through and explained. Thank you, Obitus.
It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.
Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.
A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.
It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
I'm not sure I follow your final point. Surely there will be more Labour rebels if they are sure there are a lot of ERG rebels (because they can rebel without advers consequences.) Am I missing something? It is early for me.
If there are few ERG rebels then a Labour rebel might be able to pass the deal by rebelling.
Labour rebels who help Boris over the line would not be hugely popular amongst Labour voters. Do you think those 'rebels' might have tacit support from the Leaderhip? Personally I doubt it but I wouldn't put it past them.0 -
You seriously expect me to believe Boris is picking up any stripe of socialist and (in the unlikely event you are correct) he will keep the anti-EU ones post Brexit? Seriously?Mortimer said:
Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.kyf_100 said:
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.SouthamObserver said:My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.0 -
Again, that's true, but his opponents have had no issue rushing through acts of parliament without proper scrutiny when it suits them, acts which people have argued about the meaning and effect of because they were not scrutinised properly.Cyclefree said:
My opinion of it - which is that it is worse for Britain than May’s deal (and that was not much good frankly) - is based on reading the legal text and the PD. But beware: the former is not an easy read and there will undoubtedly be implications I (and others) will have missed.nichomar said:What I find completely laughable is people opining on the public thinking this deal is better than the previous one or even that it’s better than remaining. How did any polling organization find 1000 people out in the country who have a clue what this deal or even what Mays deal was. For MPs to pass it without proper scrutiny would be an act of criminal neglect. I would assume the MP who keeps stopping private members bills because the lack scrutiny will support Letwins amendment? I’m not capable of making a judgment on this particular deal even though I followed every twist and turn of this saga. I’m impressed how many people clearly have been able to make such informed opinions unless thos opinions are solely based on ‘is this deal good for the Tory party? If yes then it’s a good deal’ regardless of what it really entails.
We will - if this goes through - discover these at our leisure over the next year. That is why the PM is so anxious to push it through without too much scrutiny. Beware a salesman who asks you to sign now in a rush and won’t give you time to think about it carefully.
I think they need to take time to consider this properly and the 31 deadline rush is nonsense and down to politics, but even accepting the differences in complexity between the situations I'm not persuaded that opponents in parliament are on strong ground when they bemoan a rush against them and praise the geniuses behind a rush for them.1 -
You are. The current Tory party is not.Casino_Royale said:
I’m a Unionist. I have no truck with English nationalism.Cyclefree said:
You may be right. Much will depend on whether the PM will now prioritise the US over the EU. I rather fear he will and as a result Britain will be shafted twice over.Casino_Royale said:
I’m relatively relaxed about that, to be honest.Cyclefree said:
Another way in which this deal is worse than May’s deal is that at the end of the transition period Britain faces a cliff edge if no FTA has been agreed - a crash out or a further transition - whereas May’s deal had the backstop, which removed the cliff edge. So we will be going through this all over again in little over a year.Stuartinromford said:
And presumably it starts coming soon, given that the initial transition deadline is the end of net year. By which time the UK either needs a frictionless trade deal with the EU or the facilities to deal with the friction or an extension.edmundintokyo said:
There's plenty more it where that came from.alex. said:Do you think his brand will remain the same post Brexit? The problem for the Libdems will be that their current Brexit policies are a solution to “making it all go away”. If Brexit happens they will suddenly be potentially positioning themselves as promising to make it all come back.
And that gives the EU even more leverage than it has as a result of this deal over Britain.
In essence Boris has kicked the can down the road just like May did by weakening Britain’s position in order to get something now. It is the very essence of short-termist thinking.
Thank you to @OblitusSumMe for a very interesting header.
Shitloads of groundwork will have been done by both sides on the full FTA (behind the scenes) and the UK and EU will know roughly where they’re heading. All the really contentious and emotional stuff about citizens rights, divorce and NI will have been dealt with so it’ll be about tariffs, services access, EU programme cooperation and payments.
Yes, it requires unanimity and the Walloon Parliament etc. but if a Deal is reached it will go through in 12 months because no EU country will want to risk a No Deal then either.
The Tories under Boris have now turned into an English nationalist party but are also very determinedly following Trump’s playbook. I see nothing good coming from that - for the rest of us anyway.
We’ll see. Boris would be advised to wrap up the Deal with the EU *before* the next US presidential election and President take office. Trump may not be around in 14 months time.1 -
Me too.SouthamObserver said:
Absolutely. Johnson’s deal fulfils the moral obligation the UK owes to Ireland. I think that part of it, at least, is worth celebrating.Casino_Royale said:
It makes NI slightly more of a special case than it currently is already.SouthamObserver said:
No, I genuinely mean It. Dumping on Ireland yet again via a No Deal would have been absolutely disastrous for the UK. We would have moved from laughing stock to pariah. Johnson’s deal prevents that. It’s the main reason why I hope (and trust) it will pass.Casino_Royale said:
Whenever @SouthamObserver writes a post like that it’s pretty obvious he’s trying to troll Brexiteers.Charles said:
This is not about winning and losingSouthamObserver said:One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
TSE is better at it.
I’m comfortable with that.0 -
I accept the offer trilemma argument, and where the two deals sit within that, but that is not to say there weren't many variations within each choice of two - Customs Union and May's deal both sit within the GFA/Union choice, both were valid options the EU could have written something for, Yet May's deal did more in terms of getting close trade with looser (non NI relevant) obligationss.
It was quantum rather than continuous and every variation on the control arm meant different countermeasures fell naturally on the union and/or Irish border arms.
If we get to FTA talks, the Union/Freedom debate will continue to apply to every bit of level playing field, market access etc etc that GB discuss.1 -
Drunk on vicarious power ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
What an utterly stupid and crass last sentence. What on earth has happened to youHYUFD said:
He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.Scott_P said:
YesHYUFD said:bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists0 -
And your point is?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Seal, hasn't the burka/niqab been banned, fully or partially, in various EU nations?
0 -
Why? I don't see how MFN would apply from NI to GB given that NI is legally part of the UK.Foxy said:Is it true that there will be no customs checks on goods entering GB from NI, only on goods going the other way? This seems incompatible with WTO obligations.
https://twitter.com/mdouganlpool/status/1184948125838008321?s=191 -
Believe it. He ain't alone with finding that......DougSeal said:
You seriously expect me to believe Boris is picking up any stripe of socialist and (in the unlikely event you are correct) he will keep the anti-EU ones post Brexit? Seriously?Mortimer said:
Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.kyf_100 said:
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.SouthamObserver said:My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.
Maybe it's just a SW thing.
Maybe.0 -
There are some changes, the essence of the deal is probably much the samweSlackbladder said:
You think MPs 'scrutinise' documents? awww blessAndyJS said:There's something slightly ridiculous about MPs only having 36 hours to scrutinise such an important document before having to vote on it.
0 -
Cyclefree is right.Cyclefree said:
If you don’t know what a financial instrument is you’re best advised not to buy it.viewcode said:@moonshine. I know what a short is but I don't know how to buy one. I dont know what an EFT is and I don't know how to buy one.
ETFs are on the face of it quite a simple product that replicate a particular reference - in this case the value of sterling versus the dollar. You buy and sell them as you do a stock, through any accredited broker.
But... they are not all made equal. Once you know what you’re doing they’re a very easy way of hedging this sort of risk.0 -
Lots and lots of American money, with some from the EU and UK thrown in.Charles said:
I suspect if NI voted to join RoI a way would be found to make that happenHenry_C said:
Not only for them. There would have to be majorities both sides of the border.Charles said:
This is not about winning and losingSouthamObserver said:One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
0 -
I think that is a risk, certainly. Any rebels need to be prepared to end their careers over this, the same way Tory rebels were over no deal. Now, it may be it wont end those careers, some of those Tories might make their way back to the fold, but they risked it and some are definitely gone. If labour leavers believe in Brexit happening enough they need to show that spine.Peter_the_Punter said:
OK, got it, but still seems a bit counter-intuitive to me.OblitusSumMe said:
It was argued that there were few Labour rebels on the votes for May's deal because there was no point in receiving the criticism for rebelling when it couldn't affect the outcome of the vote.Peter_the_Punter said:
Noted with thanks, Obitus.OblitusSumMe said:
Thanks PtP. You are right that I'm not entirely serious with my referendum suggestion.Peter_the_Punter said:Very well thought through and explained. Thank you, Obitus.
It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.
Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.
A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.
It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
I'm not sure I follow your final point. Surely there will be more Labour rebels if they are sure there are a lot of ERG rebels (because they can rebel without advers consequences.) Am I missing something? It is early for me.
If there are few ERG rebels then a Labour rebel might be able to pass the deal by rebelling.
Labour rebels who help Boris over the line would not be hugely popular amongst Labour voters. Do you think those 'rebels' might have tacit support from the Leaderhip? Personally I doubt it but I wouldn't put it past them.
Call it 5-10. Potentially enough but needs everything else to go right for Boris, so probably not quite enough.0 -
Be my guest....not_on_fire said:
Can we apply the same to the idiots who use the term “snowflake”?MarqueeMark said:
Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."Scott_P said:
Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting".....0 -
If someone who tells you they are a Socialist is voting Tory then they are lying in one of two ways. Both statements cannot be true.MarqueeMark said:
Believe it. He ain't alone with finding that......DougSeal said:
You seriously expect me to believe Boris is picking up any stripe of socialist and (in the unlikely event you are correct) he will keep the anti-EU ones post Brexit? Seriously?Mortimer said:
Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.
Maybe it's just a SW thing.
Maybe.0 -
Mr. Seal, it seems strange to attack the apparent illiberalism of the UK compared to the EU nations by citing the incumbent PM's letterbox commentary deriding the niqab, whilst disregarding that said garment has been made illegal in numerous EU nations.1
-
Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?MarqueeMark said:
Believe it. He ain't alone with finding that......DougSeal said:
You seriously expect me to believe Boris is picking up any stripe of socialist and (in the unlikely event you are correct) he will keep the anti-EU ones post Brexit? Seriously?Mortimer said:
Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.kyf_100 said:
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.
Maybe it's just a SW thing.
Maybe.0 -
One looks at the overall picture of the hostile environment, castigating internationalism as traitorous, overall xenophobia. Just because certain countries have done something this administration has not (yet) doesn’t make us better.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Seal, it seems strange to attack the apparent illiberalism of the UK compared to the EU nations by citing the incumbent PM's letterbox commentary deriding the niqab, whilst disregarding that said garment has been made illegal in numerous EU nations.
0 -
A year ago I was convinced if the deal passed the Tories would then lose an election. I'm less certain now because fewer Tory voters hate it. But I doubt they will get as much a reward as they think.148grss said:
Obviously it is better for Johnson for this to pass. But if it doesn't pass is it better for it to be a small gap, where he can ask for another vote and hope to convince the maybe half dozen votes he needs, or a big gap, where he can justify a GE because he could never convince 2 dozen votes without losing other votes on his side?kle4 said:
Seems optimistic on the independent conservatives to me, and on how many ERG hardliners will back it. It's a good 13 higher than my highest estimate. It's so close with view additional labour votes that it really should be able pass if it's right.Foxy said:Do these numbers seem correct?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1184900824608264193?s=19
We have had theories befote that some labour votes will unlock simply because if it is close, as before that it is not worth sticking your neck out. I wonder if the reverse is also possible, and some who are potential yes votes are holding off as they know 3-4 more will see it through and so think they can wait for one of the others to jump the line first.
I assume he would prefer 2nd course of action, as he will still have the problem "post Brexit" (should such a time exist) that he still won't have a majority for his domestic policy. Should Brexit pass out of the political zeitgeist (HA) and Labour picks a new Leader by 2022, Johnson may have had a few years as PM, but unable to do anything, and Labour could storm to government.
In this vein, listening to the Red Box podcast, they were discussing how the electorate rarely rewards governments for what they do, and instead votes on what more they promise. Churchill won the war, but Labour won the peace. Could we get the same with Brexit?0 -
MarqueeMark said:
Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."Scott_P said:
Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting"..... In the latter case, I'd say only 95% of users of the term. It has a legitimate metaphorical use to denote a certain very nasty type of conditioning. Usage as a synonym for persuasion or spin is annoying and immediately conveys the message "this person is intellectually superficial and a trendy poser". 0 -
But not the senior one, having got it wrong, loyalty-wise, all those years ago.MarqueeMark said:
Oldest Regiment in the British Army in continuous service.Alistair said:
Will there be any guards?Scott_P said:
YesHYUFD said:bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
At Coldstream.
Will there be Coldstream Guards?
You see I'm making a joke as there is a famous military.....
And on topic - great thread and puts it very well indeed. It is certainly a trilemma and as you say, and we noted last night, Theresa May must be kicking herself that she didn't throw the DUP under the bus and accede to a diminished Union ages ago.
Well of course there were the ERG-ers who let's think, oh yes, passed an actual law forbidding what BoJo has now included in his deal but again, how was she to know the ERG were all hat and no cattle.1 -
There are people on here who made good money in 2015 on the back of my relaying my doorstep insights that the LibDems were going to get crushed. I had them holding 17 seats in the pb.com sweepstake when the perceived wisdom was that they couldn't possibly drop below 28. As it was, I was too generous.148grss said:
Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?
You?
So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems.0 -
Allying with the most powerful nation on earth is hardly diminishing the UK but of course Boris calls out Trump when he disagrees, e.g. over the KurdsCyclefree said:
Allying itself with Trump’s USA as Boris’s Tories want to do is rather going to diminish Britain’s standing in the world. But that’s the choice the Tories - and those who vote for them - will be making. Fair enough: just don’t give us all this hypocritical guff about being the patriotic unionist party at the same time.Charles said:
The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminishedSouthamObserver said:
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.HYUFD said:
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent is removed from the EU and Irish side but clearly the ERG and Leavers could not support stopping Brexit and reversing the Leave vote or a BINO Brexit that is in most respects staying in the EU in all but name with free movement and the inability to do our own trade deals.SouthamObserver said:All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too.
The other way of course would have been to go to No Deal and impose a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland complete with checkpoints etc. The DUP might support that, as would some ERG hardliners like Owen Paterson however it would have made a return to terrorism and the Troubles ack into Northern Ireland to keep the angry Catholic and Nationalist community under control and deal with a resurgent IRA.
Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union0 -
To those ex-Conservative Members that quit the party when Boris was elected as you thought he was irresponsible or going for No Deal - are you now considering rejoining the Party now he has his own Deal?0
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I think this is the first post from you that I can heartily endorse!MarqueeMark said:
Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."Scott_P said:
Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting".....0 -
I just don't see where Cons make gains. Obviously Labour loses some seats, but not nearly enough to Cons for Cons to get a majority. Both parties likely to lose net 20 - 40 seats each, maybe more, what with SNP in Scotland and LD in the south (although if Brexit goes through I have no idea what happens to the LD revival). Some Lab seats switch to Cons by the look of it, the Stoke seats probably, maybe some in Wales some others like them, but that isn't enough for a majority. And if Labour does get shift of Corbyn, which I can imagine if Brexit happens, no immediate GE and bad local results come May, they may be able to keep some of those... It just looks so weird atm.kle4 said:
A year ago I was convinced if the deal passed the Tories would then lose an election. I'm less certain now because fewer Tory voters hate it. But I doubt they will get as much a reward as they think.148grss said:
Obviously it is better for Johnson for this to pass. But if it doesn't pass is it better for it to be a small gap, where he can ask for another vote and hope to convince the maybe half dozen votes he needs, or a big gap, where he can justify a GE because he could never convince 2 dozen votes without losing other votes on his side?kle4 said:
Seems optimistic on the independent conservatives to me, and on how many ERG hardliners will back it. It's a good 13 higher than my highest estimate. It's so close with view additional labour votes that it really should be able pass if it's right.Foxy said:Do these numbers seem correct?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1184900824608264193?s=19
We have had theories befote that some labour votes will unlock simply because if it is close, as before that it is not worth sticking your neck out. I wonder if the reverse is also possible, and some who are potential yes votes are holding off as they know 3-4 more will see it through and so think they can wait for one of the others to jump the line first.
I assume he would prefer 2nd course of action, as he will still have the problem "post Brexit" (should such a time exist) that he still won't have a majority for his domestic policy. Should Brexit pass out of the political zeitgeist (HA) and Labour picks a new Leader by 2022, Johnson may have had a few years as PM, but unable to do anything, and Labour could storm to government.
In this vein, listening to the Red Box podcast, they were discussing how the electorate rarely rewards governments for what they do, and instead votes on what more they promise. Churchill won the war, but Labour won the peace. Could we get the same with Brexit?0 -
Poland says hello, as does Italy, Austria and SpainDougSeal said:
With the Bannon loving, ethno-nationalist, “citizens of nowhere”, “enemies of the people”, “letterboxes” administration we have had since 2015 we are probably the most illiberal country (currently) in the EU behind Hungary. As for being a force for good, especially in the context of Ireland, read a book.Charles said:The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminished
0 -
Indeed the PM the wrote that article in reply to many EU nations banning that reprehensible and oppressive garment and he wrote that we shouldn't ban it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Seal, it seems strange to attack the apparent illiberalism of the UK compared to the EU nations by citing the incumbent PM's letterbox commentary deriding the niqab, whilst disregarding that said garment has been made illegal in numerous EU nations.
1 -
Yeah it seems to be misused very often, but I don't mind there being a term for what it actually meansHenry_C said:MarqueeMark said:
Alexei Sayle had a line about "anybody that uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineeering is a c**t."Scott_P said:
Similarly, anyone who isn't involved in Victorian street illumination who uses the term "gaslighting"..... In the latter case, I'd say only 95% of users of the term. It has a legitimate metaphorical use to denote a certain very nasty type of conditioning. Usage as a synonym for persuasion or spin is annoying and immediately conveys the message "this person is intellectually superficial and a trendy poser".0 -
Jeremy’s at a rally in Liverpool tomorrow night, what chance that he and a few of his acolytes end up being absent from the vote, sufficient abstentions to see it over the line?Peter_the_Punter said:
OK, got it, but still seems a bit counter-intuitive to me.OblitusSumMe said:
It was argued that there were few Labour rebels on the votes for May's deal because there was no point in receiving the criticism for rebelling when it couldn't affect the outcome of the vote.Peter_the_Punter said:
Noted with thanks, Obitus.OblitusSumMe said:
Thanks PtP. You are right that I'm not entirely serious with my referendum suggestion.Peter_the_Punter said:Very well thought through and explained. Thank you, Obitus.
It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.
Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.
A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.
It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
I'm not sure I follow your final point. Surely there will be more Labour rebels if they are sure there are a lot of ERG rebels (because they can rebel without advers consequences.) Am I missing something? It is early for me.
If there are few ERG rebels then a Labour rebel might be able to pass the deal by rebelling.
Labour rebels who help Boris over the line would not be hugely popular amongst Labour voters. Do you think those 'rebels' might have tacit support from the Leaderhip? Personally I doubt it but I wouldn't put it past them.0 -
And France and Sweden and the Netherlands and ...HYUFD said:
Poland says hello, as does Italy, Austria and SpainDougSeal said:
With the Bannon loving, ethno-nationalist, “citizens of nowhere”, “enemies of the people”, “letterboxes” administration we have had since 2015 we are probably the most illiberal country (currently) in the EU behind Hungary. As for being a force for good, especially in the context of Ireland, read a book.Charles said:The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminished
0 -
"Been Labour all my life. But never again.DougSeal said:
If someone who tells you they are a Socialist is voting Tory then they are lying in one of two ways. Both statements cannot be true.MarqueeMark said:
Believe it. He ain't alone with finding that......DougSeal said:
You seriously expect me to believe Boris is picking up any stripe of socialist and (in the unlikely event you are correct) he will keep the anti-EU ones post Brexit? Seriously?Mortimer said:
Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.
Maybe it's just a SW thing.
Maybe.
I like your Boris."
You saying I've never heard this on the doorsteps? OK, suit yourself.....0 -
A quick look at our foreign policy over the past few decades might give pause to those who think, a la @Charles, that we are a beacon of liberal enlightenment in an otherwise dark, immoral world.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed the PM the wrote that article in reply to many EU nations banning that reprehensible and oppressive garment and he wrote that we shouldn't ban it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Seal, it seems strange to attack the apparent illiberalism of the UK compared to the EU nations by citing the incumbent PM's letterbox commentary deriding the niqab, whilst disregarding that said garment has been made illegal in numerous EU nations.
0 -
This is quite an encomium from Patrick O'Flynn:
This has, I would contend, been the most brilliant prime ministerial episode since the Falklands War and leaves the occupant of Downing Street potentially on the cusp of a decade in power. He has shown raw political courage and grace under fire. He has been clear-sighted and used to the very maximum effect all the room for manoeuvre he was left with after the parliamentary Lilliputians did their best to tie him up in knots.1 -
Yes, if the Deal passes Boris could get up to a decade in power with the opposition split between Corbyn Labour and the LDs and the Brexit Party less relevant with Brexit deliveredgeoffw said:This is quite an encomium from Patrick O'Flynn:
This has, I would contend, been the most brilliant prime ministerial episode since the Falklands War and leaves the occupant of Downing Street potentially on the cusp of a decade in power. He has shown raw political courage and grace under fire. He has been clear-sighted and used to the very maximum effect all the room for manoeuvre he was left with after the parliamentary Lilliputians did their best to tie him up in knots.0 -
Allying with the outgoing regime perhaps not so wise.HYUFD said:
Allying with the most powerful nation on earth is hardly diminishing the UK but of course Boris calls out Trump when he disagrees, e.g. over the KurdsCyclefree said:
Allying itself with Trump’s USA as Boris’s Tories want to do is rather going to diminish Britain’s standing in the world. But that’s the choice the Tories - and those who vote for them - will be making. Fair enough: just don’t give us all this hypocritical guff about being the patriotic unionist party at the same time.Charles said:
The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminishedSouthamObserver said:
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.HYUFD said:
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent is removed from the EU and Irish side but clearly the ERG and Leavers could not support stopping Brexit and reversing the Leave vote or a BINO Brexit that is in most respects staying in the EU in all but name with free movement and the inability to do our own trade deals.SouthamObserver said:All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too.
The other way of course would have been to go to No Deal and impose a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland complete with checkpoints etc. The DUP might support that, as would some ERG hardliners like Owen Paterson however it would have made a return to terrorism and the Troubles ack into Northern Ireland to keep the angry Catholic and Nationalist community under control and deal with a resurgent IRA.
Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
Though I do expect POTUS Bizzie Lizzie to be popular in the UK.0 -
I see there was a further swing to Lab in Liverpool from 2016. If that is accurate of the national picture then the swing away from Labour elsewhere could be even greater than we realise.0
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Indeed. And IIRC I won the 2015 GE prediction competition outright.MarqueeMark said:
There are people on here who made good money in 2015 on the back of my relaying my doorstep insights that the LibDems were going to get crushed. I had them holding 17 seats in the pb.com sweepstake when the perceived wisdom was that they couldn't possibly drop below 28. As it was, I was too generous.148grss said:
Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?
You?
So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems.
Like Mark, I've been canvassing in the same areas for a long time. It gives you very useful insight - albeit it is generally seat/region specific. So in 2017 I misjudged the national mood, and specifically the strength of Labour, because locally things were very good for us Blues.0 -
Bizzie Lizzie likely ensures Trump is re electedFoxy said:
Allying with the outgoing regime perhaps not so wise.HYUFD said:
Allying with the most powerful nation on earth is hardly diminishing the UK but of course Boris calls out Trump when he disagrees, e.g. over the KurdsCyclefree said:
Allying itself with Trump’s USA as Boris’s Tories want to do is rather going to diminish Britain’s standing in the world. But that’s the choice the Tories - and those who vote for them - will be making. Fair enough: just don’t give us all this hypocritical guff about being the patriotic unionist party at the same time.Charles said:
The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminishedSouthamObserver said:
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.HYUFD said:
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent is removed from the EU and Irish side but clearly the ERG and Leavers could not support stopping Brexit and reversing the Leave vote or a BINO Brexit that is in most respects staying in the EU in all but name with free movement and the inability to do our own trade deals.SouthamObserver said:All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too.
The other way of course would have been to go to No Deal and impose a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland complete with checkpoints etc. The DUP might support that, as would some ERG hardliners like Owen Paterson however it would have made a return to terrorism and the Troubles ack into Northern Ireland to keep the angry Catholic and Nationalist community under control and deal with a resurgent IRA.
Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
Though I do expect POTUS Bizzie Lizzie to be popular in the UK.0 -
Amendment laid by Letwin .
Very interesting. It says the house has considered the matter but withholds approval until all the legislation has passed . Effectively the proper vote will be on the WAIB not MV4.0 -
The key thing here might not be positive votes for or against but abstentions. It may be some can be persuaded to be noticeably absent when the vote is called, enough to see it scrape through.
On a basic reading of ayes/noes assuming the whole commons votes I can’t see anything other than a narrow defeat.0 -
Interesting that EU leaders seem to really want this over with and us out now. Just seen an interview with someone on Sky (think it might have been Luxembourg PM) who when asked if there should be an extension if the vote falls by a few votes seemed to suggest that there shouldn't be an extension and there could be another Meaningful Vote on Tuesday if Saturdays fails by a few votes.
If the vote fails marginally I suspect the Benn letter may get sent with a quick response from the EU saying we don't want to give you an extension.
Hard to see Bercow blocking another MV if an extension has been denied.0 -
Interview with Luxembourg's PM live on Sky just now saying there has to be a specific reason for an extension but if it just to ask for more time it will not be granted
He also said that if he the vote is lost tomorrow the HOC has time to pass it next week.
Clearly Oliver Letwin's amendment is going to get short shift from the EU0 -
McDonnell (the defacto labour leader these days) says three line whip, eu leaking to bbc there will be an extension if asked and lewin wrecking amendment...the house of cretins are going to play silly buggers arent they.1
-
Let's face it - Boris would have gone for No Deal were it not for the Benn Act. The indignity of having to grovel to the EU for an extension was more than his towering vanity could bear. The calculation was made that appeasing Varadkar and Juncker and humiliating the DUP would be preferable to any damage to Brand Boris.MarqueeMark said:
There are people on here who made good money in 2015 on the back of my relaying my doorstep insights that the LibDems were going to get crushed. I had them holding 17 seats in the pb.com sweepstake when the perceived wisdom was that they couldn't possibly drop below 28. As it was, I was too generous.148grss said:
Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?
You?
So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems.0 -
Yup, Liverpool remember even voted Labour in the European Parliament elections as Labour fell behind the LDs across the UKGallowgate said:I see there was a further swing to Lab in Liverpool from 2016. If that is accurate of the national picture then the swing away from Labour elsewhere could be even greater than we realise.
0 -
The last place in the country that Labour needs more votes is Liverpool!Gallowgate said:I see there was a further swing to Lab in Liverpool from 2016. If that is accurate of the national picture then the swing away from Labour elsewhere could be even greater than we realise.
0 -
Do you remeber howuch they bighead up Le Pen during the French presidential election?Big_G_NorthWales said:
What an utterly stupid and crass last sentence. What on earth has happened to youHYUFD said:
He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.Scott_P said:
YesHYUFD said:bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
I don't think anything had happened, it has just become more obvious.0 -
MarqueeMark said: "So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems."
I pray that you are right. And I say that as a liberal.
It astonishes me how MPs can one day be advocating for conservatism and the very next day advocating for liberalism (or collectivism - liberalism etc).
0 -
Strong words from Ross Thomson
https://twitter.com/RossThomson_MP/status/1072084002067148801?s=19
Oh, wait.1 -
Yes but it is just crassAlistair said:
Do you remeber howuch they bighead up Le Pen during the French presidential election?Big_G_NorthWales said:
What an utterly stupid and crass last sentence. What on earth has happened to youHYUFD said:
He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.Scott_P said:
YesHYUFD said:bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
I don't think anything had happened, it has just become more obvious.0 -
"Choice is not between Brexit or no Brexit, choice is between Brexit with a deal or without a deal" - French advisor to Macron on Sky now - EU leaders do not want our membership dragging on.1
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Okay, will file these thoughts away. Useful to understand.Mortimer said:
Indeed. And IIRC I won the 2015 GE prediction competition outright.MarqueeMark said:
There are people on here who made good money in 2015 on the back of my relaying my doorstep insights that the LibDems were going to get crushed. I had them holding 17 seats in the pb.com sweepstake when the perceived wisdom was that they couldn't possibly drop below 28. As it was, I was too generous.148grss said:
Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?
You?
So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems.
Like Mark, I've been canvassing in the same areas for a long time. It gives you very useful insight - albeit it is generally seat/region specific. So in 2017 I misjudged the national mood, and specifically the strength of Labour, because locally things were very good for us Blues.0 -
In fairness, O'Flynn doesn't only heap his gushing praise on Boris - he reserves plenty of it for himself too.geoffw said:This is quite an encomium from Patrick O'Flynn:
This has, I would contend, been the most brilliant prime ministerial episode since the Falklands War and leaves the occupant of Downing Street potentially on the cusp of a decade in power. He has shown raw political courage and grace under fire. He has been clear-sighted and used to the very maximum effect all the room for manoeuvre he was left with after the parliamentary Lilliputians did their best to tie him up in knots.0 -
Labour all my life does not equal socialist, so yeah.MarqueeMark said:
"Been Labour all my life. But never again.DougSeal said:
If someone who tells you they are a Socialist is voting Tory then they are lying in one of two ways. Both statements cannot be true.MarqueeMark said:
Believe it. He ain't alone with finding that......DougSeal said:
You seriously expect me to believe Boris is picking up any stripe of socialist and (in the unlikely event you are correct) he will keep the anti-EU ones post Brexit? Seriously?Mortimer said:
Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.
Maybe it's just a SW thing.
Maybe.
I like your Boris."
You saying I've never heard this on the doorsteps? OK, suit yourself.....0 -
Unless it’s for an election or referendumPhilip_Thompson said:"Choice is not between Brexit or no Brexit, choice is between Brexit with a deal or without a deal" - EU leaders do not want our membership dragging on.
0 -
Bollocks. The wheels were already moving on Boris getting a new deal before Benn Act was passed.Stark_Dawning said:
Let's face it - Boris would have gone for No Deal were it not for the Benn Act. The indignity of having to grovel to the EU for an extension was more than his towering vanity could bear. The calculation was made that appeasing Varadkar and Juncker and humiliating the DUP would be preferable to any damage to Brand Boris.MarqueeMark said:
There are people on here who made good money in 2015 on the back of my relaying my doorstep insights that the LibDems were going to get crushed. I had them holding 17 seats in the pb.com sweepstake when the perceived wisdom was that they couldn't possibly drop below 28. As it was, I was too generous.148grss said:
Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?
You?
So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems.
Boris had already had his meeting with Merkel and Macron were crucially he got them to agree to reopen the WDA.
0 -
Yes. Now, it may be that the final days of October are indeed spent in the courts as Cummings intimated but there is no doubt that the Benn Act forced Boris' hand otherwise I think they would happily have sailed on as close to no deal as they could have and dared everyone to line up and stop them.Stark_Dawning said:
Let's face it - Boris would have gone for No Deal were it not for the Benn Act. The indignity of having to grovel to the EU for an extension was more than his towering vanity could bear. The calculation was made that appeasing Varadkar and Juncker and humiliating the DUP would be preferable to any damage to Brand Boris.MarqueeMark said:
There are people on here who made good money in 2015 on the back of my relaying my doorstep insights that the LibDems were going to get crushed. I had them holding 17 seats in the pb.com sweepstake when the perceived wisdom was that they couldn't possibly drop below 28. As it was, I was too generous.148grss said:
Isn't the South West currently looking like a LD resurgence? Are you sure this isn't just confirmation bias? The polls would suggest differently, would love to know why your canvassing should be trusted above it?
You?
So here's a tip from the inside: Dr. Sarah Wollaston will not hold Totnes for the LibDems.
As for the outcome - you were absolutely spot on yesterday. Boris' desire to be PM is stronger than any desire to maintain the sanctity of the Union.
The only surprise was the ease with which he jettisoned the DUP and NI after all the fuss when May broached just that subject. The JRM-inspired law and "No British PM could ever.." rhetoric proved to be no impediment for him and I must say I hadn't expected him to be so shameless or that the ERG, say, would accept it so cravenly.
But we have a deal so we should be happy.0 -
Not even a regiment now, let alone a Loyalist one.Foxy said:
The Black Watch were formed as a Loyalist regiment as I recall, though may well be less Unionist now.Charles said:
It would be a Black Watch if you were ever in charge of humour on this siteAlistair said:
Will there be any guards?Scott_P said:
YesHYUFD said:bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
At Coldstream.
Will there be Coldstream Guards?
You see I'm making a joke as there is a famous military.....0 -
Another EU MEP had said that a further extension for the sake of an extension will be declined. If it was for a GE it would be considered but the EU wants this done now0
This discussion has been closed.