The ongoing war within Labour high command is not over
You’d have to have a heart of stone not to laugh your head off...
And a short memory. It is not as if all the ructions predicted for Labour did not come to pass first in the Conservative Party, which brought us not one, not two but three prime ministers in four years. Is that a record?
And if the legislation hasn't been completed before the EU pull the plug on further extensions? Do we No Deal, Ed? Or is it a case of, oh look, the Widgets Directive No. 7 hasn't been fully spell-checked yet - so we better Revoke and start again....?
Whatever one thinks of Boris, it's clear that he is a much better politician than Theresa. He's managed to sell his deal to the public where May completely forgot to include anyone other than herself and Robbins from being in agreement.
Not sure that’s true. The main difference is that Boris doesn’t have Boris on the backbenches.
Hmm, he does have the likes of Grieve and Hammond plotting against him though. Again, the difference is that he's better at politics. By enforcing party discipline on the first vote he's forced the ERG nutters to fall in line with a deal they probably think isn't great and most of those MPs he kicked out will be welcomed back when they vote in favour on Saturday making the party look more united on Brexit that it ever has been.
May was just very poor at politics. Her deal may have been economically a bit better (which I'm not convinced about either) but politically it was poison for her, the party and the country as it would have allowed the betrayal narrative to continue and the likes of Nige would have taken advantage of public loathing of it.
The best stamp of approval for this deal was Nige's tweet yesterday about not being allowed another delay. He, like the rest of the Spartans, realises the game is up, Boris has delivered a deal that is acceptable to the public, the EU and it should get just about enough support in the commons.
If Boris succeeds first time around it will be because May failed three times before that. Why did she fail? Because Boris undermined her.
If May had brought back this deal Boris would have opposed it. It is the circumstances of her defeat that now make it possible.
To that extent Boris has played a blinder, but it’s nothing to be proud of.
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Putney and some others in London probably
Putney more likely to go LD now, the LDs won Wandsworth in the European Parliament elections while the Tories beat Labour in the 2018 Wandsworth local elections
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent is removed from the EU and Irish side but clearly the ERG and Leavers could not support stopping Brexit and reversing the Leave vote or a BINO Brexit that is in most respects staying in the EU f troops back into Northern Ireland to keep the angry Catholic and Nationalist community under control and deal with a resurgent IRA.
Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.
Victory for the Nationalists would have meant No Deal leading to a hard border in Ireland and Northern Irish voters voting for a United Ireland, the Boris Deal avoids a hard border and keeps Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area but with looser ties between GB and NI.
The UK is currently the 5th largest economy in the world, England alone would be the 7th largest economy in the world, so little different even if Wales and Scotland voted for independence and Northern Ireland for a united Ireland. The loss of India and the British Empire was much more significant than the breakup of the Union would be as it saw us lose our superpower status
I am struggling to see how the end of our country will be less significant than the end of our Empire. But I’m not an English nationalist.
Letwin’s entirely reasonable point (as someone who will be voting for the deal) is that he simply wants to avoid No Deal by accident, which is possible.
Many people have said this before but most Labour MPs in Leave areas are more dependent on Remain voters than Leave voters. Labour Leavers are more Labour than Leave, but Labour Remainers are more Remain than Labour. And in many Labour Leave seats the majority of voters who voted Leave usually didn't vote Labour anyway.
bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
Yes
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.
Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
The ongoing war within Labour high command is not over
You’d have to have a heart of stone not to laugh your head off...
And a short memory. It is not as if all the ructions predicted for Labour did not come to pass first in the Conservative Party, which brought us not one, not two but three prime ministers in four years. Is that a record?
No, it is not a record. We had three consecutive prime ministers from the same party in the 1950s. Churchill to 1955, then Eden, then Macmillan from 1957.
The ongoing war within Labour high command is not over
You’d have to have a heart of stone not to laugh your head off...
And a short memory. It is not as if all the ructions predicted for Labour did not come to pass first in the Conservative Party, which brought us not one, not two but three prime ministers in four years. Is that a record?
Between 1865 and 1868 there were five prime ministers - Palmerston, Russell, Derby, Disraeli and Gladstone.
In 1782-84 there were also five Prime Ministers - North, Rockingham, Shelburne, Portland and Pitt.
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
There now exist two deals which represent the two combinations of the trilemma that respect the Good Friday Agreement. Perhaps we ought to put the choice between May’s Deal, and Johnson’s, to a public vote?
Try getting that through Parliament......Grieve et al will want Remain on the ballot.....
It is certainly the least popular referendum option, but I think also the least unpopular.
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.
That’s not true. For defence, foreign affairs, key taxes, currency and social security NI is still in the UK - very firmly - and the Union flag still flys over NI.
NI is a special legal case already. Abortion isn’t allowed there (yet) and its the only part of the British isles where that is the case. Also, special Irish citizenship rights apply there too. Plus there are many utilities and services offers (and promotions) that apply to the UK (GB only excl. NI) where slightly different rules apply.
Applying some reciprocal rules on customs tariffs across the Irish Sea, with the U.K. managing tariff differentials and refunds with NI to keep the UK single market intact, is a creative solution that works.
Most people don’t worry about such things and I can’t see it driving or fuelling extra Irish identity.
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.
In an election, Boris just repeatedly makes the point that he is still a unionist in his every bone, has always fought and will always fight for the union - but that there was no arrangment to be achieved with the EU that would have satisfied the DUP. As he has got a great deal for NI, he will say he has done all that he can to protect NI from being hurt economically within the constraints of having a long shared porous border and the Good Friday Agreement. All other avenues were explored. None worked.
The business community is on board with his deal. The DUP are not. But they have come up with no workable alternative proposals. They are chasing unicorns.
Most voters will buy that.
The UK business community prefers Johnson’s deal to no deal but thinks it’s worse than May’s one. The bottom line is that Johnson was able to dump the DUP because when push comes to shove most Tories do not care about the Union because they are English nationalists.
Whatever one thinks of Boris, it's clear that he is a much better politician than Theresa. He's managed to sell his deal to the public where May completely forgot to include anyone other than herself and Robbins from being in agreement.
Not sure that’s true. The main difference is that Boris doesn’t have Boris on the backbenches.
Hmm, he does have the likes of Grieve and Hammond plotting against him though. Again, the difference is that he's better at politics. By enforcing party discipline on the first vote he's forced the ERG nutters to fall in line with a deal they probably think isn't great and most of those MPs he kicked out will be welcomed back when they vote in favour on Saturday making the party look more united on Brexit that it ever has been.
May was just very poor at politics. Her deal may have been economically a bit better (which I'm not convinced about either) but politically it was poison for her, the party and the country as it would have allowed the betrayal narrative to continue and the likes of Nige would have taken advantage of public loathing of it.
The best stamp of approval for this deal was Nige's tweet yesterday about not being allowed another delay. He, like the rest of the Spartans, realises the game is up, Boris has delivered a deal that is acceptable to the public, the EU and it should get just about enough support in the commons.
If Boris succeeds first time around it will be because May failed three times before that. Why did she fail? Because Boris undermined her.
If May had brought back this deal Boris would have opposed it. It is the circumstances of her defeat that now make it possible.
To that extent Boris has played a blinder, but it’s nothing to be proud of.
The long line of centrist Labour supporters suggesting that being a successful politician who is good at selling policy to country and colleagues alike is a BAD thing perhaps explains why they've lost power in the party to the hard left...
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.
That’s not true. For defence, foreign affairs, key taxes, currency and social security NI is still in the UK - very firmly - and the Union flag still flys over NI.
NI is a special legal case already. Abortion isn’t allowed there (yet) and its the only part of the British isles where that is the case. Also, special Irish citizenship rights apply there too. Plus there are many utilities and services offers (and promotions) that apply to the UK (GB only excl. NI) where slightly different rules apply.
Applying some reciprocal rules on customs tariffs across the Irish Sea, with the U.K. managing tariff differentials and refunds with NI to keep the UK single market intact, is a creative solution that works.
Most people don’t worry about such things and I can’t see it driving or fuelling extra Irish identity.
Why was it an absolute red line for Conservatives, including Boris, until a few days ago?
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Putney and some others in London probably
Putney more likely to go LD now, the LDs won Wandsworth in the European Parliament elections while the Tories beat Labour in the 2018 Wandsworth local elections
It’s more than a bit worrying that I find myself in agreement with Hyufd on something even as on the same thread he calls for various British politicians to be jailed.
Is it true that there will be no customs checks on goods entering GB from NI, only on goods going the other way? This seems incompatible with WTO obligations.
The checks GB to NI are because the EU is concerned about onward movement of goods. (It’s not a “customs” check so much as making sure the appropriate tariff/paperwork is in the place - a fine distinction I know.., If the U.K. is not concerned about onward flow they can rely on the declaration when it comes from the RoI to NI plus spot checks)
I’d suggest Johnson needs to (a) restore the whip with huge magnanimity to the 21 Tory rebels and (b) bung the DUP shitloads of cash for NI plus also pledge some serious emotional British initiatives in NI (new occasional UK cabinet meetings there, naval/army base commitment or a new UK trade office in Belfast etc) to convince them to abstain and stick with C&S.
He could then probably get back up to 312 MPs taking his whip, which would allow him to survive for a time.
bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
Yes
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
He hasn't as he has kept an open border in Ireland and of course Bozo will block indyref2 anyway.
Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Chingford maybe.
Again more voters now switching to the LDs or Brexit Party than Corbyn Labour there when I have canvassed Chingford
Whatever one thinks of Boris, it's clear that he is a much better politician than Theresa. He's managed to sell his deal to the public where May completely forgot to include anyone other than herself and Robbins from being in agreement.
Not sure that’s true. The main difference is that Boris doesn’t have Boris on the backbenches.
Hmm, he does have the likes of Grieve and Hammond plotting against him though. Again, the difference is that he's better at politics. By enforcing party discipline on the first vote he's forced the ERG nutters to fall in line with a deal they probably think isn't great and most of those MPs he kicked out will be welcomed back when they vote in favour on Saturday making the party look more united on Brexit that it ever has been.
May was just very poor at politics. Her deal may have been economically a bit better (which I'm not convinced about either) but politically it was poison for her, the party and the country as it would have allowed the betrayal narrative to continue and the likes of Nige would have taken advantage of public loathing of it.
The best stamp of approval for this deal was Nige's tweet yesterday about not being allowed another delay. He, like the rest of the Spartans, realises the game is up, Boris has delivered a deal that is acceptable to the public, the EU and it should get just about enough support in the commons.
If Boris succeeds first time around it will be because May failed three times before that. Why did she fail? Because Boris undermined her.
If May had brought back this deal Boris would have opposed it. It is the circumstances of her defeat that now make it possible.
To that extent Boris has played a blinder, but it’s nothing to be proud of.
The long line of centrist Labour supporters suggesting that being a successful politician who is good at selling policy to country and colleagues alike is a BAD thing perhaps explains why they've lost power in the party to the hard left...
It’s not about selling policy. It’s about satisfying his personal ambition by manufacturing crisis after crisis to grab more power for himself, using brinkmanship to blackmail the country and proposing deals he once categorically ruled out.
Not much really. The border in the Irish Sea was always on the table. It’s just that Theresa thought it was too stupid an idea to countenance.
Perhaps you didn’t read the excellent thread header. May’s plan was predicated on effectively staying in the customs in perpetuity. This decision makes a lot more sense since Hammond outed himself last week as shall we politely say, agnostic about the benefits of free trade.
The new government has pursued a different course with a different set of priorities. I’d venture that calling it “stupid” is not likely to win you many arguments.
Whatever one thinks of Boris, it's clear that he is a much better politician than Theresa. He's managed to sell his deal to the public where May completely forgot to include anyone other than herself and Robbins from being in agreement.
This is undoubtedly true. He made the process about him.
The way Boris manipulated Leavers’ brains - turning their fundamental concern from being about leaving the EU to his career prospects - was one of the greatest political accomplishments of the modern age.
Yawn.....
Ask yourself this: if Theresa had proposed this deal would the ERG have voted for it? If you’re honest with yourself you’ll concede that the answer is no. Why is that?
Boris Johnson has prioritised potential divergence from the EU over the integrity of the Union. Despite his rhetoric about "Buccaneering Britain" he realises Brexit is entirely a vehicle of English nationalism. He is happy to do "what no British prime minister would ever do" because in a real sense he isn't the prime minister for Great Britain. Unlike May he doesn't try to square the Brexit circle.
One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is not about winning and losing
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
Whatever one thinks of Boris, it's clear that he is a much better politician than Theresa. He's managed to sell his deal to the public where May completely forgot to include anyone other than herself and Robbins from being in agreement.
This is undoubtedly true. He made the process about him.
The way Boris manipulated Leavers’ brains - turning their fundamental concern from being about leaving the EU to his career prospects - was one of the greatest political accomplishments of the modern age.
Yawn.....
Ask yourself this: if Theresa had proposed this deal would the ERG have voted for it? If you’re honest with yourself you’ll concede that the answer is no. Why is that?
I think that is true in a way, but I also think if Johnson had proposed May's deal the ERG would have voted for it. I think May was just a bad saleswoman. She emphasised the concessions rather than the wins. She could have argued that the backstop was a massive wing versus what the EU originally wanted, but instead accepted it was a "bad" aspect of the deal, but still better than the alternative. Johnson is just straight up better at giving political shade for his potential allies to just vote for his deal despite the shortcomings of the deal. I am not a fan of his faux power of positive thinking will fix everything politics, but the ERG are, and May was never that politician.
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is not about winning and losing
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
Not only for them. There would have to be majorities both sides of the border.
It looks like punting approval for the WA from a “meaningful vote” to the actual new Act of Parliament that would need to follow a week or two later.
But, I don’t get it. That’s always been required. A meaningful vote is just that - a show of hands.
Yes, more time may be needed (extension) to pass the deal and all its associated legislation, but why then leave out Deal from them amendment?
It suggests they’re worried they’ll lose and want another couple of weeks to rally political support to defeat it, but they could do that anyway.
Because the *ONLY* thing the Opposition cares about, is seeing Johnson’s signature on the extension letter. If you look at everything through that prism it all starts to make sense.
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the od thing.
Victory for the Nationalists would have meant No Deal leading to a hard border in Ireland and Northern Irish voters voting for a United Ireland, the Boris Deal avoids a hard border and keeps Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area but with looser ties between GB and NI.
The UK is currently the 5th largest economy in the world, England alone would be the 7th largest economy in the world, so little different even if Wales and Scotland voted for independence and Northern Ireland for a united Ireland. The loss of India and the British Empire was much more significant than the breakup of the Union would be as it saw us lose our superpower status
I am struggling to see how the end of our country will be less significant than the end of our Empire. But I’m not an English nationalist.
Our country is England, the UK is just a union of the Kingdoms of England and Scotland and the remaining part of Ireland still in the UK.
The loss of the British Empire meant the loss of our superpower status, as the UK we are now just a middle ranked power as we would still be even as England alone
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.
That’s not true. For defence, foreign affairs, key taxes, currency and social security NI is still in the UK - very firmly - and the Union flag still flys over NI.
NI is a special legal case already. Abortion isn’t allowed there (yet) and its the only part of the British isles where that is the case. Also, special Irish citizenship rights apply there too. Plus there are many utilities and services offers (and promotions) that apply to the UK (GB only excl. NI) where slightly different rules apply.
Applying some reciprocal rules on customs tariffs across the Irish Sea, with the U.K. managing tariff differentials and refunds with NI to keep the UK single market intact, is a creative solution that works.
Most people don’t worry about such things and I can’t see it driving or fuelling extra Irish identity.
Why was it an absolute red line for Conservatives, including Boris, until a few days ago?
They really wanted the DUP’s support.
Plus, it’s a negotiation. Both sides go firm on their red lines to maximise the compromise to their liking.
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
That should deliver some stonking Tory majorities in Midland seats......
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the od thing.
Victory for the Nationalists would have meant No Deal leading to a hard border in Ireland and Northern Irish voters voting for a United Ireland, the Boris Deal avoids a hard border and keeps Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area but with looser ties between GB and NI.
The UK is currently the 5th largest economy in the world, England alone would be the 7th largest economy in the world, so little different even if Wales and Scotland voted for independence and Northern Ireland for a united Ireland. The loss of India and the British Empire was much more significant than the breakup of the Union would be as it saw us lose our superpower status
I am struggling to see how the end of our country will be less significant than the end of our Empire. But I’m not an English nationalist.
Our country is England, the UK is just a union of the Kingdoms of England and Scotland and the remaining part of Ireland still in the UK.
The loss of the British Empire meant the loss of our superpower status, as the UK we are now just a middle ranked power as we would still be even as England alone
Thank-you. As I say, I’m not an English nationalist.
It looks like punting approval for the WA from a “meaningful vote” to the actual new Act of Parliament that would need to follow a week or two later.
But, I don’t get it. That’s always been required. A meaningful vote is just that - a show of hands.
Yes, more time may be needed (extension) to pass the deal and all its associated legislation, but why then leave out Deal from them amendment?
It suggests they’re worried they’ll lose and want another couple of weeks to rally political support to defeat it, but they could do that anyway.
Because the *ONLY* thing the Opposition cares about, is seeing Johnson’s signature on the extension letter. If you look at everything through that prism it all starts to make sense.
I think the political benefits to the opposition of now doing that are largely nullified - Boris has got his Deal by 31st October and he’ll just need a few extra weeks to pass the laws, which he’ll get away with.
It looks like punting approval for the WA from a “meaningful vote” to the actual new Act of Parliament that would need to follow a week or two later.
But, I don’t get it. That’s always been required. A meaningful vote is just that - a show of hands.
Yes, more time may be needed (extension) to pass the deal and all its associated legislation, but why then leave out Deal from them amendment?
It suggests they’re worried they’ll lose and want another couple of weeks to rally political support to defeat it, but they could do that anyway.
Because the *ONLY* thing the Opposition cares about, is seeing Johnson’s signature on the extension letter. If you look at everything through that prism it all starts to make sense.
I think that was the sort of loophole in the Benn Act .
They should have included something about the WAIB . In normal times you probably wouldn’t have to but there’s simply no trust in Johnson and always the fear that some of the ERG might play silly games after they’ve voted for the deal.
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Yep. But I doubt the LDs can prevent a good-sized Tory majority.
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.
That’s not true. For defence, foreign affairs, key taxes, currency and social security NI is still in the UK - very firmly - and the Union flag still flys over NI.
NI is a special legal case already. Abortion isn’t allowed there (yet) and its the only part of the British isles where that is the case. Also, special Irish citizenship rights apply there too. Plus there are many utilities and services offers (and promotions) that apply to the UK (GB only excl. NI) where slightly different rules apply.
Applying some reciprocal rules on customs tariffs across the Irish Sea, with the U.K. managing tariff differentials and refunds with NI to keep the UK single market intact, is a creative solution that works.
Most people don’t worry about such things and I can’t see it driving or fuelling extra Irish identity.
Why was it an absolute red line for Conservatives, including Boris, until a few days ago?
They really wanted the DUP’s support.
Plus, it’s a negotiation. Both sides go firm on their red lines to maximise the compromise to their liking.
And this is certainly a compromise.
It’s more than that. Boris said no Conservative government could ever back such a deal. Tories ought to be honest, they want Brexit so much they are prepared to do pretty much anything.
Very well thought through and explained. Thank you, Obitus.
It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.
Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.
Thanks PtP. You are right that I'm not entirely serious with my referendum suggestion.
A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.
It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
Do you think his brand will remain the same post Brexit? The problem for the Libdems will be that their current Brexit policies are a solution to “making it all go away”. If Brexit happens they will suddenly be potentially positioning themselves as promising to make it all come back.
There's plenty more it where that came from.
And presumably it starts coming soon, given that the initial transition deadline is the end of net year. By which time the UK either needs a frictionless trade deal with the EU or the facilities to deal with the friction or an extension.
Another way in which this deal is worse than May’s deal is that at the end of the transition period Britain faces a cliff edge if no FTA has been agreed - a crash out or a further transition - whereas May’s deal had the backstop, which removed the cliff edge. So we will be going through this all over again in little over a year.
And that gives the EU even more leverage than it has as a result of this deal over Britain.
In essence Boris has kicked the can down the road just like May did by weakening Britain’s position in order to get something now. It is the very essence of short-termist thinking.
Thank you to @OblitusSumMe for a very interesting header.
One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is not about winning and losing
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
Whenever @SouthamObserver writes a post like that it’s pretty obvious he’s trying to troll Brexiteers.
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Tim
That’s not true. For defence, foreign affairs, key taxes, currency and social security NI is still in the UK - very firmly - and the Union flag still flys over NI.
NI is a special legal case already. Abortion isn’t allowed there (yet) and its the only part of the British isles where that is the case. Also, special Irish citizenship rights apply there too. Plus there are many utilities and services offers (and promotions) that apply to the UK (GB only excl. NI) where slightly different rules apply.
Applying some reciprocal rules on customs tariffs across the Irish Sea, with the U.K. managing tariff differentials and refunds with NI to keep the UK single market intact, is a creative solution that works.
Most people don’t worry about such things and I can’t see it driving or fuelling extra Irish identity.
Why was it an absolute red line for Conservatives, including Boris, until a few days ago?
They really wanted the DUP’s support.
Plus, it’s a negotiation. Both sides go firm on their red lines to maximise the compromise to their liking.
And this is certainly a compromise.
It’s more than that. Boris said no Conservative government could ever back such a deal. Tories ought to be honest, they want Brexit so much they are prepared to do pretty much anything.
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent is removed from the EU and Irish side but clearly the ERG and Leavers could not support stopping Brexit and reversing the Leave vote or a BINO Brexit that is in most respects staying in the EU in all but name with free movement and the inability to do our own trade deals.
The other way of course would have been to go to No Deal and impose a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland complete with checkpoints etc. The DUP might support that, as would some ERG hardliners like Owen Paterson however it would have made a return to terrorism and the Troubles in Northern Ireland likely and polls show a majority of Northern Ireland voters prefer a United Ireland to a hard border with the Republic of Ireland anyway so it would not in reality preserve the UK at all. Even if the British did not impose a hard border the Irish likely would have done and it would have required ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and the sending of troops back into Northern Ireland to keep the angry Catholic and Nationalist community under control and deal with a resurgent IRA.
Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.
The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminished
One positive about Johnson’s Brexit Deal is that it delivers victory for the people of the Republic of Ireland, who have had to live for three years with the uncertainty and worry caused by a Brexit they never asked for. After 800 years of taking our shite, they’ve won.
This is not about winning and losing
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
The Irish have got all that they wanted. That is a victory. The English nationalists have also won. The DUP has very definitely lost.
It looks like punting approval for the WA from a “meaningful vote” to the actual new Act of Parliament that would need to follow a week or two later.
But, I don’t get it. That’s always been required. A meaningful vote is just that - a show of hands.
Yes, more time may be needed (extension) to pass the deal and all its associated legislation, but why then leave out Deal from them amendment?
It suggests they’re worried they’ll lose and want another couple of weeks to rally political support to defeat it, but they could do that anyway.
Because the *ONLY* thing the Opposition cares about, is seeing Johnson’s signature on the extension letter. If you look at everything through that prism it all starts to make sense.
I think the political benefits to the opposition of now doing that are largely nullified - Boris has got his Deal by 31st October and he’ll just need a few extra weeks to pass the laws, which he’ll get away with.
Provided the MV passes.
Which is why they’re now trying to amend the MV to say that the rest of the legislation must pass first. It’s all delaying tactics designed to force the extension request.
We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.
"In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.
(At this point, several of the children giggle.)
I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."
At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"
"That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."
It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
But they did - Fokker G.1, Fokker T.VIII for instance. THJough admittedly not in the fighter role so far as I can remember.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons. Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.
The mixed messaging on Labour's whipping arrangement seems bad, as does their seeming refusal to now add a confirmatory referendum to the deal. Were I they, I would have whipped for a confirmatory referendum and then whipped for the deal if a referendum succeeded and against if it hadn't. That would have given some of the Lab Leavers cover to vote either way, and also for Labour itself to not look like "just a Remain" party.
I think the deal does need more scrutiny, even if it is 95% still May's Deal with seemingly a less Unionist stance on NI. That this should be rushed through Parliament is disconcerting, as it will have significant impact for generations to come.
Do you think his brand will remain the same post Brexit? The problem for the Libdems will be that their current Brexit policies are a solution to “making it all go away”. If Brexit happens they will suddenly be potentially positioning themselves as promising to make it all come back.
There's plenty more it where that came from.
And presumably it starts coming soon, given that the initial transition deadline is the end of net year. By which time the UK either needs a frictionless trade deal with the EU or the facilities to deal with the friction or an extension.
Another way in which this deal is worse than May’s deal is that at the end of the transition period Britain faces a cliff edge if no FTA has been agreed - a crash out or a further transition - whereas May’s deal had the backstop, which removed the cliff edge. So we will be going through this all over again in little over a year.
And that gives the EU even more leverage than it has as a result of this deal over Britain.
In essence Boris has kicked the can down the road just like May did by weakening Britain’s position in order to get something now. It is the very essence of short-termist thinking.
Thank you to @OblitusSumMe for a very interesting header.
I’m relatively relaxed about that, to be honest.
Shitloads of groundwork will have been done by both sides on the full FTA (behind the scenes) and the UK and EU will know roughly where they’re heading. All the really contentious and emotional stuff about citizens rights, divorce and NI will have been dealt with so it’ll be about tariffs, services access, EU programme cooperation and payments.
Yes, it requires unanimity and the Walloon Parliament etc. but if a Deal is reached it will go through in 12 months because no EU country will want to risk a No Deal then either.
Twitter: all the straws in the wind are that all Brexiteers are backing this, even high priestesses like Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer, should Johnson should get away with it on that flank.
What I find completely laughable is people opining on the public thinking this deal is better than the previous one or even that it’s better than remaining. How did any polling organization find 1000 people out in the country who have a clue what this deal or even what Mays deal was. For MPs to pass it without proper scrutiny would be an act of criminal neglect. I would assume the MP who keeps stopping private members bills because the lack scrutiny will support Letwins amendment? I’m not capable of making a judgment on this particular deal even though I followed every twist and turn of this saga. I’m impressed how many people clearly have been able to make such informed opinions unless thos opinions are solely based on ‘is this deal good for the Tory party? If yes then it’s a good deal’ regardless of what it really entails.
Twitter: all the straws in the wind are that all Brexiteers are backing this, even high priestesses like Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer, should Johnson should get away with it on that flank.
Only the DUP who don’t like it at present.
Poor Nigel Fucking Farage, forgotten so quickly...
Twitter: all the straws in the wind are that all Brexiteers are backing this, even high priestesses like Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer, should Johnson should get away with it on that flank.
Only the DUP who don’t like it at present.
And Farage, but I'm not sure how many Leavers he now represents.
I have seen some online anti Deal messaging from Leavers, saying that this is a betrayal from Johnson and stuff, but I don't know how much of a representative sample this is.
If Boris succeeds first time around it will be because May failed three times before that. Why did she fail? Because Boris undermined her.
If May had brought back this deal Boris would have opposed it. It is the circumstances of her defeat that now make it possible.
To that extent Boris has played a blinder, but it’s nothing to be proud of.
Still waiting for the banter possibility of May voting against this deal...
She really ought to make a speech quoting all the statements made by the PM and other Cabinet Ministers and others about why a border in the Irish see is a monstrosity etc just to see them squirm and then say that since 98% of this “new” deal is the same as her deal she is delighted to support it and looks forward to it passing at its 4th attempt.
Very well thought through and explained. Thank you, Obitus.
It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.
Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.
Thanks PtP. You are right that I'm not entirely serious with my referendum suggestion.
A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.
It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
Noted with thanks, Obitus.
I'm not sure I follow your final point. Surely there will be more Labour rebels if they are sure there are a lot of ERG rebels (because they can rebel without advers consequences.) Am I missing something? It is early for me.
Twitter: all the straws in the wind are that all Brexiteers are backing this, even high priestesses like Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer, should Johnson should get away with it on that flank.
Only the DUP who don’t like it at present.
That said the Bow Group and Bruges Group seem to also be opposing it, which may be influential in some ultra Thatcherite circles.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons. Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......
Twitter: all the straws in the wind are that all Brexiteers are backing this, even high priestesses like Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer, should Johnson should get away with it on that flank.
Only the DUP who don’t like it at present.
Poor Nigel Fucking Farage, forgotten so quickly...
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons. Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......
Twitter: all the straws in the wind are that all Brexiteers are backing this, even high priestesses like Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer, should Johnson should get away with it on that flank.
Only the DUP who don’t like it at present.
Poor Nigel Fucking Farage, forgotten so quickly...
Indeed, he’s miscalculated.
His betrayal soundtrack isn’t getting much traction this time, and he’s largely shut out of the news.
All the polling shows that Tory members put Brexit before the Union. As the ERG represents them better than anyone else in Parliament, it’s no surprise it’s members do, too. I am surprised that so many other Tory MPs feel the same, but I guess they know their members better than me and can see which way the wind is blowing. That said, given the trilemma Timothy so brilliantly describes, it’s probably true things would only ever end up this way. It’s time to move on and get it all done.
The only ways to preserve the Union in full would have been first to cancel Brexit so the whole UK stays in the EU or second to keep the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union so the need for any backstop or equivalent is removed from the EU and Irish side but clearly the ERG and Leavers could not support stopping Brexit and reversing the Leave vote or a BINO Brexit that is in most respects staying in the EU in all but name with free movement and the inability to do our own trade deals.
The other way of course would have been to go to No Deal and impose a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland complete with checkpoints etc. The DUP might support that, as would some ERG hardliners like Owen Paterson however it would have made a return to terrorism and the Troubles in Northern Ireland likely and polls show a majority of Northern Ireland voters prefer a United Ireland to a hard border with the Republic of Ireland anyway so it would not in reality preserve the UK at all. Even if the British did not impose a hard border the Irish likely would have done and it would have required ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and the sending of troops back into Northern Ireland to keep the angry Catholic and Nationalist community under control and deal with a resurgent IRA.
Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
As Timothy says, the Tories have chosen taking back control over the Union. For right-wing English nationalists it’s an entirely rational move. I am also very pleased it means a big victory for Ireland. The Irish people never deserved the uncertainty and worry Brexit inflicted on them. I see all this as the first step to England finally learning where it truly sits in the world. It’ll take a while longer yet, but we’re now starting. That is a good thing.
The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminished
It’s where your party is taking us, Charles, so it’s best to get started.
Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.
My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.
Tories will come running back when they see Labour's eat-the-rich manifesto, which will come down on the middle classes like a ton of bricks.
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Yep. But I doubt the LDs can prevent a good-sized Tory majority.
I think probably not too, but shall do what I can. I see a lot of LD second places, with gains then likely in 2025.
Perhaps the big unknown is how the BXP will react to BoZo's Surrender Deal.
I have secured my own investments quite well for Brexit, and BoZo's NHS spending and tax cuts for those over £80 000 will be some compensation.
If Boris succeeds first time around it will be because May failed three times before that. Why did she fail? Because Boris undermined her.
If May had brought back this deal Boris would have opposed it. It is the circumstances of her defeat that now make it possible.
To that extent Boris has played a blinder, but it’s nothing to be proud of.
Still waiting for the banter possibility of May voting against this deal...
She really ought to make a speech quoting all the statements made by the PM and other Cabinet Ministers and others about why a border in the Irish see is a monstrosity etc just to see them squirm and then say that since 98% of this “new” deal is the same as her deal she is delighted to support it and looks forward to it passing at its 4th attempt.
What I find completely laughable is people opining on the public thinking this deal is better than the previous one or even that it’s better than remaining. How did any polling organization find 1000 people out in the country who have a clue what this deal or even what Mays deal was. For MPs to pass it without proper scrutiny would be an act of criminal neglect. I would assume the MP who keeps stopping private members bills because the lack scrutiny will support Letwins amendment? I’m not capable of making a judgment on this particular deal even though I followed every twist and turn of this saga. I’m impressed how many people clearly have been able to make such informed opinions unless thos opinions are solely based on ‘is this deal good for the Tory party? If yes then it’s a good deal’ regardless of what it really entails.
My opinion of it - which is that it is worse for Britain than May’s deal (and that was not much good frankly) - is based on reading the legal text and the PD. But beware: the former is not an easy read and there will undoubtedly be implications I (and others) will have missed.
We will - if this goes through - discover these at our leisure over the next year. That is why the PM is so anxious to push it through without too much scrutiny. Beware a salesman who asks you to sign now in a rush and won’t give you time to think about it carefully.
Seems optimistic on the independent conservatives to me, and on how many ERG hardliners will back it. It's a good 13 higher than my highest estimate. It's so close with view additional labour votes that it really should be able pass if it's right.
We have had theories befote that some labour votes will unlock simply because if it is close, as before that it is not worth sticking your neck out. I wonder if the reverse is also possible, and some who are potential yes votes are holding off as they know 3-4 more will see it through and so think they can wait for one of the others to jump the line first.
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If May had brought back this deal Boris would have opposed it. It is the circumstances of her defeat that now make it possible.
To that extent Boris has played a blinder, but it’s nothing to be proud of.
That's the point.
BoZo has gifted the SNP an excuse for customs posts at Coldstream.
63. Hur hur hur......
I guess thats why the EU-UK-Ireland have decided to manage the difficult one, not the 'easy' one.
Face it, the Nats would complain if there was an 'r' in the month....
Sturgeon should count herself lucky Bozo is not going to pass a law to put her in jail as the Spanish government and courts have done to Catalan nationalists
It’s very likely the WAIB won’t go through till very late in the day close to 31st October.
The bill is huge and needs to go through both houses .
In 1782-84 there were also five Prime Ministers - North, Rockingham, Shelburne, Portland and Pitt.
NI is a special legal case already. Abortion isn’t allowed there (yet) and its the only part of the British isles where that is the case. Also, special Irish citizenship rights apply there too. Plus there are many utilities and services offers (and promotions) that apply to the UK (GB only excl. NI) where slightly different rules apply.
Applying some reciprocal rules on customs tariffs across the Irish Sea, with the U.K. managing tariff differentials and refunds with NI to keep the UK single market intact, is a creative solution that works.
Most people don’t worry about such things and I can’t see it driving or fuelling extra Irish identity.
Most pro-Brexit Tories are definitely in line:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1184915667499261952
The checks GB to NI are because the EU is concerned about onward movement of goods. (It’s not a “customs” check so much as making sure the appropriate tariff/paperwork is in the place - a fine distinction I know.., If the U.K. is not concerned about onward flow they can rely on the declaration when it comes from the RoI to NI plus spot checks)
Heck, the PM himself clearly doesn’t!
He could then probably get back up to 312 MPs taking his whip, which would allow him to survive for a time.
At Coldstream.
Will there be Coldstream Guards?
You see I'm making a joke as there is a famous military.....
https://twitter.com/conunit_ucl/status/1185085981826977794?s=21
The new government has pursued a different course with a different set of priorities. I’d venture that calling it “stupid” is not likely to win you many arguments.
Boris Johnson has prioritised potential divergence from the EU over the integrity of the Union. Despite his rhetoric about "Buccaneering Britain" he realises Brexit is entirely a vehicle of English nationalism. He is happy to do "what no British prime minister would ever do" because in a real sense he isn't the prime minister for Great Britain. Unlike May he doesn't try to square the Brexit circle.
This is about finding a workable compromise
If at some point the people of NI decide to join the RoI that is a matter for them
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
But, I don’t get it. That’s always been required. A meaningful vote is just that - a show of hands.
Yes, more time may be needed (extension) to pass the deal and all its associated legislation, but why then leave out Deal from them amendment?
It suggests they’re worried they’ll lose and want another couple of weeks to rally political support to defeat it, but they could do that anyway.
Not sure he realizes the irony !
Seriously, though, huge business deals are ratified in less time. And much of the document is presumably unchanged....
The loss of the British Empire meant the loss of our superpower status, as the UK we are now just a middle ranked power as we would still be even as England alone
Plus, it’s a negotiation. Both sides go firm on their red lines to maximise the compromise to their liking.
And this is certainly a compromise.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
Provided the MV passes.
They should have included something about the WAIB . In normal times you probably wouldn’t have to but there’s simply no trust in Johnson and always the fear that some of the ERG might play silly games after they’ve voted for the deal.
Having a border at Gretna is kind of the point of the SNP.
A Commons that can vote for a compromise referendum can probably manage to vote for a Brexit Deal first.
It looks like the number of Labour rebels needs to exceed the number of ERG rebels by nine - and it's probably the case that there will be fewer Labour rebels if there are more ERG rebels.
And that gives the EU even more leverage than it has as a result of this deal over Britain.
In essence Boris has kicked the can down the road just like May did by weakening Britain’s position in order to get something now. It is the very essence of short-termist thinking.
Thank you to @OblitusSumMe for a very interesting header.
TSE is better at it.
I think the deal does need more scrutiny, even if it is 95% still May's Deal with seemingly a less Unionist stance on NI. That this should be rushed through Parliament is disconcerting, as it will have significant impact for generations to come.
Shitloads of groundwork will have been done by both sides on the full FTA (behind the scenes) and the UK and EU will know roughly where they’re heading. All the really contentious and emotional stuff about citizens rights, divorce and NI will have been dealt with so it’ll be about tariffs, services access, EU programme cooperation and payments.
Yes, it requires unanimity and the Walloon Parliament etc. but if a Deal is reached it will go through in 12 months because no EU country will want to risk a No Deal then either.
Only the DUP who don’t like it at present.
I have seen some online anti Deal messaging from Leavers, saying that this is a betrayal from Johnson and stuff, but I don't know how much of a representative sample this is.
I'm not sure I follow your final point. Surely there will be more Labour rebels if they are sure there are a lot of ERG rebels (because they can rebel without advers consequences.) Am I missing something? It is early for me.
This isn’t getting much publicity though.
His betrayal soundtrack isn’t getting much traction this time, and he’s largely shut out of the news.
Perhaps the big unknown is how the BXP will react to BoZo's Surrender Deal.
I have secured my own investments quite well for Brexit, and BoZo's NHS spending and tax cuts for those over £80 000 will be some compensation.
We will - if this goes through - discover these at our leisure over the next year. That is why the PM is so anxious to push it through without too much scrutiny. Beware a salesman who asks you to sign now in a rush and won’t give you time to think about it carefully.
We have had theories befote that some labour votes will unlock simply because if it is close, as before that it is not worth sticking your neck out. I wonder if the reverse is also possible, and some who are potential yes votes are holding off as they know 3-4 more will see it through and so think they can wait for one of the others to jump the line first.