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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach diff

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.

    http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/

    56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html

    No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules

    You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).

    No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more ards unification.
    No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
    The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
    Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
    You're mad as a box of frogs.

    County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.

    If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
    Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.

    London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
    You think Antrim is comparable to Rhodesia?

    And how will Antrim be a viable state by itself without any friends?
    Yes and more so as most of the population would back it whereas the black population opposed the Iain Smith Government in Rhodesia.

    The Tory right and the Brexit Party would also back any Antrim UDI
    You’re mad. You want to partition Ireland further? Have you learnt nothing?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Fenster said:

    As in Mrs May did not understand politics.
    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains. There's no doubt Boris is an engaging character.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Pulpstar said:

    El Classico off.

    Excellent news
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1185137961505087488

    Yes, we know.

    Now shut up. Your leverage is done now. We have moved on.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kinabalu said:

    Assuming this does go through on Saturday can someone explain the benefits that we will all receive once we are out of the EU. How is it going to make our lives better? What has been driving the brexiteers to press the for this huge change in Britain's position? What will be the performance o indicators for brexit?

    We'll be able to stop foreigners coming over here. Plus work 65 hour weeks.
    Did you not suggest that Labour's shift to advocating a second Referendum would prove a sure winner in a GE?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    Looks to me as though the massive failure in all this is Labour's. By playing silly games they've not only shafted themselves, pleasing no-one and probably gifting Boris a majority, but they also caused the likely implementation of a harder Brexit than the one they could have had months ago.

    On the specific point of whether this complicated arrangement for NI makes reunification more likely, I'm not convinced it does. NI will be left in an anomalous position, to be sure, but it's an anomaly which works to their advantage, giving them the best of both worlds. It could well be like the Common Travel Area - an anomaly which persists,
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,758
    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Open question - Does anyone seriously think Labour is putting country ahead of party in all of this now ?

    I don't think you can accuse the Labour leadership of prioritising the party interest - their priority is considerably narrower than that.
    Assuming politics trumps nation and common good as usual it is impossible to see how Boris can have the numbers tomorrow. If he gets this deal (and almost no British, especially English, voters take account of the DUP or NI interest generally) he would appear to be in an unassailable position. If he doesn't get this deal both Labour and LibDems, to say nothing of the whole Remain camp, at least live to fight another day. It is hard to see what interest anyone else can have in establishing Boris as the Churchill de nos jours.

    If Boris doesn't get the vote tomorrow there will be an explosion of rage and a General Election focused entirely on Brexit. He will win a landslide. That's why I would be amazed if Labour don't give the wink to Labour Leavers voting for the deal. Plus, as we all know, Corbyn wants Brexit to happen anyway.

    Much better for Labour to have a GE later after deal is passed, even if Boris secures his place in the history books.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    nico67 said:

    Merkel confirms she would give an extension if needed .

    She said the EU can not be seen to force the UK out without a deal .

    The French and Luxembourg governments have already confirmed this morning they will oppose any extension if the Deal is rejected without EUref2 or a GE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.

    http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/

    56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html

    No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules

    You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).

    No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more ards unification.
    No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
    The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
    Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
    You're mad as a box of frogs.

    County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.

    If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
    Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.

    London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
    You think Antrim is comparable to Rhodesia?

    And how will Antrim be a viable state by itself without any friends?
    Yes and more so as most of the population would back it whereas the black population opposed the Iain Smith Government in Rhodesia.

    The Tory right and the Brexit Party would also back any Antrim UDI
    You’re mad. You want to partition Ireland further? Have you learnt nothing?
    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Stocky said:

    Logical_Song said: "If Corbyn holds the keys to whether and when an election happens, then the EU can't make the extension dependent on the holding of an election. "

    1) Corbyn does hold the keys
    2) The EU can not dictate to us when to hold a GE. Can you imagine!

    Well, quite!
    If the MPs turn it down, as they did May's, in what way would the situation be different from when the last extension was granted?
    So if they want to give us an extension, how long is likely and what condition can be placed on it? You know, so we don't waste this extra time.
    Either no condition or a 2nd referendum - which the Tories under a new PM could deliver.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    I like the latest remainer (Hat tip Sturdy Alex) twitter line that the public is now likely supporting the deal because we've been gaslit (Yes it's a word I always have to look up too) for 4 years by the Tories.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Merkel confirms she would give an extension if needed .

    She said the EU can not be seen to force the UK out without a deal .

    The French and Luxembourg governments have already confirmed this morning they will oppose any extension if the Deal is rejected without EUref2 or a GE
    Not true , if for example the UK needed a bit more time to put the legislation through then they would extend. .
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What about the wishes of Remainers?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,758
    malcolmg said:

    Unclear why people think this deal is bad for Union.

    Most people in NI will breathe sigh of relief that there is no hard border. DUP losing face will help to keep nationalist-minded community on board with UK.

    In Scotland, most folk want Brexit over and simply don't want another IndyRef. There will be no SNP landslide. Fishing and farming leaders have endorsed Boris's deal, including Andrew McCornick (NFU Scotland chair) who usually is warm to ScotGov. So that helps to shore up SCon vote in rural and NE seats. SCon MPs are going to be very sticky.

    And I don't think the SNP argument about Scotland having same deal as Ulster will resonate that much. Its understood that NI is a special case. Don't mistake the preoccupations of the Nat bubble with mainstream Scottish opinion.

    Garbage from you as usual, you know zero about Scotland given the dribble you post. Majority want a referendum and when it comes a majority will want independence. Nobody believes NI is any more a special case than Scotland. Acouple of millionaire Tory farmers and fisherman do not constitute the public of Scotland you halfwitted dullard.
    Well, Malc, the proof will be in the pudding, won't it. I expect a period of silence from you after the next GE similar in duration to that which occurred after June 2017 when Salmond, Robertson et al bit the dust.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited October 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions


    There is I'm afraid a level of naivety going on. This deal is a very good one for the EU. Boris impaled himself on his date pledge and has been forced to do everything he said he was not going to do. The EU has ended up with pretty much what they initially offered, a weakened Britain and a very clear understanding of the vanities of the British political class and how poor it is at negotiating, something which will no doubt stand the EU (and other countries) in good stead in the negotiations to come.

    It is better than No Deal. So I hope it passes. But let's not kid ourselves that this is some kind of marvellous outcome. It is the least worst outcome given the way the government has conducted itself since the result. It could have been so much better. But we are where we are.
    I half agree with that, but I think the EU have made concessions to Johnson too.
    1. There is a consent mechanism.
    2. Northern Ireland is in a dual-customs status, rather than simply in the EU customs union.
    3. Um. Okay. Maybe I three-quarters agree.
    1. The consent mechanism is a big win for Ireland. See Varadkar's musings on the GFA last week. I wondered why he was saying that. Now it makes sense.
    2. There is an administrative cost to keeping your business based in NI even if you get all the necessary VAT rebates. I expect the Irish to point out to businesses based there how much more convenient and cheaper it will be to based on the Irish side of the border with a bigger market, especially if the UK diverges from EU rules. With the CTA such a change doesn't even need people to move home. So I think the Irish see this as a business opportunity. I expect they're betting that the much vaunted "other trade deals" will not in the end amount to that much by comparison with the SM.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,263
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    I like the latest remainer (Hat tip Sturdy Alex) twitter line that the public is now likely supporting the deal because we've been gaslit (Yes it's a word I always have to look up too) for 4 years by the Tories.

    Good word for "ooops we just got rumbled".

    That's what Extinction Rebellion call people who point out that their most prominent supporters are goons and hypocrites :-o .
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited October 2019
    Richard_Nabavi says; "Looks to me as though the massive failure in all this is Labour's. By playing silly games they've not only shafted themselves, pleasing no-one and probably gifting Boris a majority, but they also caused the likely implementation of a harder Brexit than the one they could have had months ago"

    Yes, LP has been a disgrace. Until recently much of the electorate hadn`t twigged this and were irrationally blaming the Conservative Party for not delivering the ref result, but I think they`ve figured it out now. Labour Party is in a bad place.

    I actually think that they may be best to vote for the deal - at least they can say that they were intstrumental in some way.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    MattW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I like the latest remainer (Hat tip Sturdy Alex) twitter line that the public is now likely supporting the deal because we've been gaslit (Yes it's a word I always have to look up too) for 4 years by the Tories.

    Good funny word.

    That's what Extinction Rebellion call people who pointed out that their most prominent supporters are goons and hypocrites :-o .
    Isn't "gas lighting" just burning the planet up with carbon?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    Possibly but this is a case of good cop bad cop . Corbyn playing the good cop but others in Labour are going after them .

    Labour MPs who support this deal are toast .
    Jezza always said it was down to the members, this works both ways though, he isn't going to ride to their rescue either. If they want to vote for Johnson's deal then they accept the potential reaction to it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Well, yes, but it was good old mindless buccaneering raw politics which got us here in the first place - specifically, Cameron's inability to think like a lawyer (or, indeed, an adult) and say, OK, I have a plan for when things go the way I expect them to go. What is my plan for when they don't?
    I think this is an interesting exchange. Raw politics drives a lot of actual decision-making and it's very powerful when focused (and when Johnson focuses he's good at it), though often not conducive to getting an objectively good result. Policy wonks, good at analysis and honing effective policy, who are also good at raw politics are very rare - Bill Clinton, perhaps - can people suggest others?

    A substitute is willingness to take advice from wonks and then push it through - Reagan is widely credited with that, and you can argue that Blair and Thatcher were too. Blair's performance deteriorated IMO when he started to get deeper into policy - he became obsessed with a couple of controversial issues (Iraq, PFI), started saying "I" instead of "we" and generally lost the overall vision that he started with and was so good at communicating.
  • nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Merkel confirms she would give an extension if needed .

    She said the EU can not be seen to force the UK out without a deal .

    The French and Luxembourg governments have already confirmed this morning they will oppose any extension if the Deal is rejected without EUref2 or a GE
    Not true , if for example the UK needed a bit more time to put the legislation through then they would extend. .
    Not really. They will extend for a GE but have said if the deal falls tomorrow another vote should take place next week as they are committed to the 31st and want to move on
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).

    No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more ards unification.
    No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
    The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
    Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
    You're mad as a box of frogs.

    County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.

    If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
    Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.

    London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
    You think Antrim is comparable to Rhodesia?

    And how will Antrim be a viable state by itself without any friends?
    Yes and more so as most of the population would back it whereas the black population opposed the Iain Smith Government in Rhodesia.

    The Tory right and the Brexit Party would also back any Antrim UDI
    You’re mad. You want to partition Ireland further? Have you learnt nothing?
    I think @HYUFD can only be some parody account dreamt up by @SeanT. Only that would explain the nonsense he is now writing. It can only be a matter of time before he/SeanT starts talking about how Antrim will get its own nuclear weapons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What about the wishes of Remainers?
    Most do not want an Independent EU loyalist state and nor have they been involved in terrorism yet like the IRA and loyalist paramilitaries were
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.

    His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Merkel confirms she would give an extension if needed .

    She said the EU can not be seen to force the UK out without a deal .

    The French and Luxembourg governments have already confirmed this morning they will oppose any extension if the Deal is rejected without EUref2 or a GE
    Not true , if for example the UK needed a bit more time to put the legislation through then they would extend. .
    They would give a week to give a second Commons vote on the Deal max, if the first narrowly failed
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    I like the latest remainer (Hat tip Sturdy Alex) twitter line that the public is now likely supporting the deal because we've been gaslit (Yes it's a word I always have to look up too) for 4 years by the Tories.

    They are using "gaslit" in its newest third meaning as a synonym of "having comprehensively lost the public debate".

    There was a bit I cut from my article about how Remainers have failed to influence the debate about what type of Brexit we should have partly because they are split between whether to re-fight the 2016 referendum.

    It doesn't help that those who do want to re-fight the 2016 referendum haven't come up with any better arguments for remaining.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As in Mrs May did not understand politics.
    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains. There's no doubt Boris is an engaging character.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    Look at someone like Alex Ferguson at Man Utd. Not the greatest player, no academic background, a brutal temper, a man who made (he admitted himself) mistakes in the heat of the moment... but a force of nature who dragged his players over the line time and time again.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    You’re advocating population exchanges now?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nunuone said:
    No surprise he was always going to vote for a deal . He was just against no deal .
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.

    http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/

    56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html

    No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules

    You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).

    No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!

    Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
    No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
    The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
    Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather thsn be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
    You keep saying that but that doesn’t make it true.
    Oh it does, indeed Peter Robinson from the DUP was even in discussions with loyalist paramilitaries about declaring UDI over the Anglo Irish Agreement

    http://www.irishnews.com/paywall/tsb/irishnews/irishnews/irishnews//news/2016/12/30/news/british-believed-peter-robinson-plotting-to-declare-independent-state--856630/content.html
    I could declare UDI in my bedroom but that doesn’t mean it is a viable proposition.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What about the wishes of Remainers?
    Most do not want an Independent EU loyalist state and nor have they been involved in terrorism yet like the IRA and loyalist paramilitaries were
    So what you're saying is you only negotiate with terrorists? Good to know that for Remain views to be listened to we should have to start a civil war, otherwise we're not really serious about it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    You’re advocating population exchanges now?
    Couple of posts away from ethnic cleansing and genocide.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    So why can't all the Antrimites move to Liverpool?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    alex. said:

    Lib Dems should have pushed for that election. A major blunder. Golden rule - oppositions should never turn down elections, especially those at which they stand to benefit. They were too obsessed with the belief that Johnson wanted no deal - he never did, even if he was almost recklessly driven into it by error and miscalculation.

    My guess is that the LDs will do OK whenever an election is called. If it happens post-Brexit, a lot of people who might have voted tactically for Labour will no longer feel the need to do so, while I imagine it’s going to be hard for Johnson’s brand of populist English nationalism to win back a lot of Remain-voting, liberal Tories.

    I agree.

    My expectation is that the deal will pass tomorrow thanks to the votes of Labour MPs, which will further toxify Labour in the eyes of pro-Europeans.

    At which point pro-Europeans will start going through the five stages of loss: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.

    Assuming the General Election happens at the anger stage, the Lib Dems are perfectly placed to pick up on this.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Well, yes, but it was good old mindless buccaneering raw politics which got us here in the first place - specifically, Cameron's inability to think like a lawyer (or, indeed, an adult) and say, OK, I have a plan for when things go the way I expect them to go. What is my plan for when they don't?
    I think this is an interesting exchange. Raw politics drives a lot of actual decision-making and it's very powerful when focused (and when Johnson focuses he's good at it), though often not conducive to getting an objectively good result. Policy wonks, good at analysis and honing effective policy, who are also good at raw politics are very rare - Bill Clinton, perhaps - can people suggest others?

    A substitute is willingness to take advice from wonks and then push it through - Reagan is widely credited with that, and you can argue that Blair and Thatcher were too. Blair's performance deteriorated IMO when he started to get deeper into policy - he became obsessed with a couple of controversial issues (Iraq, PFI), started saying "I" instead of "we" and generally lost the overall vision that he started with and was so good at communicating.
    Angela Merkel perhaps? She seems pretty up on policy, but has also managed to sail with the wind of popular opinion when needed...
  • nico67 said:

    Possibly but this is a case of good cop bad cop . Corbyn playing the good cop but others in Labour are going after them .

    Labour MPs who support this deal are toast .
    Jezza always said it was down to the members, this works both ways though, he isn't going to ride to their rescue either. If they want to vote for Johnson's deal then they accept the potential reaction to it.
    I'm not convinced this will happen. For all the talk of deselections, the only MP to actually be deselected is Margaret Hodge (and that's nothing to do with Brexit). Kate Hoey went on a boat with Nigel Farage and still comfortably got re-elected in 2017 in Vauxhall.

    John Mann has also had no problems and has said that his Brexit stance helped retain the local council.

    For all Momentum like to brag about their power, it mainly seems to be concentrated in London, Liverpool and Manchester which were all strongly remain.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?

    We're into transition then so nothing will change.
    So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?
    Yes. And having to pay money in.

    The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
    And a good deal for NI
    Shit sandwich for Scotland
    Bit like an SNP government then :-)
    Naughty boy, quite the opposite
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What about the wishes of Remainers?
    Most do not want an Independent EU loyalist state and nor have they been involved in terrorism yet like the IRA and loyalist paramilitaries were
    So what you're saying is you only negotiate with terrorists? Good to know that for Remain views to be listened to we should have to start a civil war, otherwise we're not really serious about it.
    Exactly what I pointed out to him about his comments re the Scots not getting indyref because they weren't terrorists.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    El Classico off.

    Gerard Pique got booked deliberately (kicking the ball away when 4-0 up) vs Sevilla before the int break so as to miss tomorrows match vs Eibar and be free for the Classico, scheduled for next week. Hope it rebounds on him, cant believe the associations aren't all over this nonsense
  • Judges throw out Liberty case
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Well, yes, but it was good old mindless buccaneering raw politics which got us here in the first place - specifically, Cameron's inability to think like a lawyer (or, indeed, an adult) and say, OK, I have a plan for when things go the way I expect them to go. What is my plan for when they don't?
    I think this is an interesting exchange. Raw politics drives a lot of actual decision-making and it's very powerful when focused (and when Johnson focuses he's good at it), though often not conducive to getting an objectively good result. Policy wonks, good at analysis and honing effective policy, who are also good at raw politics are very rare - Bill Clinton, perhaps - can people suggest others?

    A substitute is willingness to take advice from wonks and then push it through - Reagan is widely credited with that, and you can argue that Blair and Thatcher were too. Blair's performance deteriorated IMO when he started to get deeper into policy - he became obsessed with a couple of controversial issues (Iraq, PFI), started saying "I" instead of "we" and generally lost the overall vision that he started with and was so good at communicating.
    Very interesting.

    Thatcher famously told her advisers that Reagan had a 'complete lack of grey matter' and it was commented that if the Americans really knew what Thatcher thought of Reagan's abilities it would've ruined the special relationship.

    Yet she genuinely liked and cared about him (and flirted with him) and saw him as someone with a warmth and ability to listen which had a dramatic (world-changing) effect on the Cold War.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    Unclear why people think this deal is bad for Union.

    Most people in NI will breathe sigh of relief that there is no hard border. DUP losing face will help to keep nationalist-minded community on board with UK.

    In Scotland, most folk want Brexit over and simply don't want another IndyRef. There will be no SNP landslide. Fishing and farming leaders have endorsed Boris's deal, including Andrew McCornick (NFU Scotland chair) who usually is warm to ScotGov. So that helps to shore up SCon vote in rural and NE seats. SCon MPs are going to be very sticky.

    And I don't think the SNP argument about Scotland having same deal as Ulster will resonate that much. Its understood that NI is a special case. Don't mistake the preoccupations of the Nat bubble with mainstream Scottish opinion.

    Garbage from you as usual, you know zero about Scotland given the dribble you post. Majority want a referendum and when it comes a majority will want independence. Nobody believes NI is any more a special case than Scotland. Acouple of millionaire Tory farmers and fisherman do not constitute the public of Scotland you halfwitted dullard.
    Well, Malc, the proof will be in the pudding, won't it. I expect a period of silence from you after the next GE similar in duration to that which occurred after June 2017 when Salmond, Robertson et al bit the dust.
    I doubt very much that I will need to be silent. SNP will increase their MP numbers for sure.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Judges throw out Liberty case

    Maugham got several people to waste money through crowdfund, he will be happy
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.

    http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/

    56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html

    No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules

    You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).

    No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!

    Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
    No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
    The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
    Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather thsn be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
    You keep saying that but that doesn’t make it true.
    Oh it does, indeed Peter Robinson from the DUP was even in discussions with loyalist paramilitaries about declaring UDI over the Anglo Irish Agreement

    http://www.irishnews.com/paywall/tsb/irishnews/irishnews/irishnews//news/2016/12/30/news/british-believed-peter-robinson-plotting-to-declare-independent-state--856630/content.html
    I could declare UDI in my bedroom but that doesn’t mean it is a viable proposition.
    It seems to work for HY?
  • Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    Brom said:

    Lisa Nandy re-selected by Wigan Labour. Hopefully she feels more comfortable voting through the deal now.

    She would vote for the deal, but...
    Boris has been frightfully mean to her !
    She is the most child like looking 40 yr old I think I've ever seen. It seems like she's getting ticked off and her bottom lip is trembling when she answers interviewers questions at times
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As in Mrs May did not understand politics.
    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains. There's no doubt Boris is an engaging character.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    Look at someone like Alex Ferguson at Man Utd. Not the greatest player, no academic background, a brutal temper, a man who made (he admitted himself) mistakes in the heat of the moment... but a force of nature who dragged his players over the line time and time again.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    I suspect that Alex Ferguson has an integrity which Boris lacks. That lack will do for Boris eventually.

    Boris has got a deal because the combination of his date pledge and the Benn Act forced him into it and because he abandoned all the things he previously said he would do. Any fool can get a deal in such circumstances.

    He is not persuading people of the merits of the deal. He is persuading people of the merits of doing a deal, any deal, now, just to get the bloody thing over and done with. Decisions made when exhausted and in a rush are rarely good ones and risk not having the sort of long-term commitment and support they need - as this one will certainly need.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Cyclefree said:

    I think @HYUFD can only be some parody account dreamt up by @SeanT. Only that would explain the nonsense he is now writing. It can only be a matter of time before he/SeanT starts talking about how Antrim will get its own nuclear weapons.

    We have them already. They are called the DUP :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.

    His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"

    I don’t really understand how the US draft dodgers get away with it, in public opinion, with the culture here about veterans, service and duty, whereas for example Kerry had so much of what he did or didn’t do while serving used against him.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As in Mrs May did not understand politics.
    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains. There's no doubt Boris is an engaging character.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    Look at someone like Alex Ferguson at Man Utd. Not the greatest player, no academic background, a brutal temper, a man who made (he admitted himself) mistakes in the heat of the moment... but a force of nature who dragged his players over the line time and time again.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    The mistake people make is judging a persons ability to do anything on their failure to be good at one thing. Can only lead to a dogma, a code if you like.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).

    No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more ards unification.
    No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
    The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
    Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
    You're mad as a box of frogs.

    County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.

    If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
    Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.

    London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
    You think Antrim is comparable to Rhodesia?

    And how will Antrim be a viable state by itself without any friends?
    Yes and more so as most of the population would back it whereas the black population opposed the Iain Smith Government in Rhodesia.

    The Tory right and the Brexit Party would also back any Antrim UDI
    You’re mad. You want to partition Ireland further? Have you learnt nothing?
    I think @HYUFD can only be some parody account dreamt up by @SeanT. Only that would explain the nonsense he is now writing. It can only be a matter of time before he/SeanT starts talking about how Antrim will get its own nuclear weapons.
    Yet the objective evidence suggests that SeanT doesn’t have much ability to dream up and bring to life new characters?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Alistair said:

    Getting a deal was not some masterclass of negotiation.


    If we knew Boris was prepared to ditch his opposition to a border down the Irish Sea then I think even the dullest person on here would have predicted a deal being done in short order.
    Yes - my prediction of there not being a deal was predicated on taking the assurances of PB Tories (and Boris) that such a thing would not happen. Just goes to show, never trust a Conservative. The DUP must be bitterly regretting propping them up for so long, a lesson we LDs learned the hard way of course.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    IanB2 said:

    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.

    His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"

    I don’t really understand how the US draft dodgers get away with it, in public opinion, with the culture here about veterans, service and duty, whereas for example Kerry had so much of what he did or didn’t do while serving used against him.
    It's a weird one. I think it's because most people didn't agree with the draft, especially for Vietnam? But it is a paradox...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As in Mrs May did not understand politics.
    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains. There's no doubt Boris is an engaging character.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    Look at someone like Alex Ferguson at Man Utd. Not the greatest player, no academic background, a brutal temper, a man who made (he admitted himself) mistakes in the heat of the moment... but a force of nature who dragged his players over the line time and time again.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    I suspect that Alex Ferguson has an integrity which Boris lacks. That lack will do for Boris eventually.

    Boris has got a deal because the combination of his date pledge and the Benn Act forced him into it and because he abandoned all the things he previously said he would do. Any fool can get a deal in such circumstances.

    He is not persuading people of the merits of the deal. He is persuading people of the merits of doing a deal, any deal, now, just to get the bloody thing over and done with. Decisions made when exhausted and in a rush are rarely good ones and risk not having the sort of long-term commitment and support they need - as this one will certainly need.
    What makes you suspect that Sir Alex has the integrity Boris lacks?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Stocky said:


    Yes, LP has been a disgrace. Until recently much of the electorate hadn`t twigged this and were irrationally blaming the Conservative Party for not delivering the ref result, but I think they`ve figured it out now. Labour Party is in a bad place.

    I actually think that they may be best to vote for the deal - at least they can say that they were intstrumental in some way.

    Correct. Once this phase of Brexit is done we'll all move on to other things and the slate is wiped clean for the LP. Boris's victory will not stand the Tories in good stead any more than Churchill's did in 1945. He surely knows that, and so too do McDonnell and Corbyn.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Fenster said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Well, yes, but it was good old mindless buccaneering raw politics which got us here in the first place - specifically, Cameron's inability to think like a lawyer (or, indeed, an adult) and say, OK, I have a plan for when things go the way I expect them to go. What is my plan for when they don't?
    I think this is an interesting exchange. Raw politics drives a lot of actual decision-making and it's very powerful when focused (and when Johnson focuses he's good at it), though often not conducive to getting an objectively good result. Policy wonks, good at analysis and honing effective policy, who are also good at raw politics are very rare - Bill Clinton, perhaps - can people suggest others?

    A substitute is willingness to take advice from wonks and then push it through - Reagan is widely credited with that, and you can argue that Blair and Thatcher were too. Blair's performance deteriorated IMO when he started to get deeper into policy - he became obsessed with a couple of controversial issues (Iraq, PFI), started saying "I" instead of "we" and generally lost the overall vision that he started with and was so good at communicating.
    Very interesting.

    Thatcher famously told her advisers that Reagan had a 'complete lack of grey matter' and it was commented that if the Americans really knew what Thatcher thought of Reagan's abilities it would've ruined the special relationship.

    Yet she genuinely liked and cared about him (and flirted with him) and saw him as someone with a warmth and ability to listen which had a dramatic (world-changing) effect on the Cold War.
    Don’t you think Reagan was just lucky? The US outspent the USSR in the arms race to the point where the latter was unable to sustain its empire in Eastern Europe. The reasons the US did so were the powerful military-industrial factions within America that wanted to sustain their financial position (the same factions who pushed the “war” on terrorism more recently for the same reasons). Reagan went along with this because that’s how his party and his presidency worked. He struck lucky when the Soviet empire collapsed on his watch.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others
    I do not think that HYUFD uses "diehard" as a compliment.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Dear Labour leave voters and supporters.

    You are no longer welcome

    Regards

    Momentum
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Dear Labour leave voters and supporters.

    You are no longer welcome

    Regards

    Momentum
    The split approacheth
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others
    I do not think that HYUFD uses "diehard" as a compliment.
    It's not an insult either is it? Not in the region of the constant referrals to Leavers as being mentally ill, members of a cult etc from people who disagree with them on the referendum
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    geoffw said:

    Stocky said:


    Yes, LP has been a disgrace. Until recently much of the electorate hadn`t twigged this and were irrationally blaming the Conservative Party for not delivering the ref result, but I think they`ve figured it out now. Labour Party is in a bad place.

    I actually think that they may be best to vote for the deal - at least they can say that they were intstrumental in some way.

    Correct. Once this phase of Brexit is done we'll all move on to other things and the slate is wiped clean for the LP. Boris's victory will not stand the Tories in good stead any more than Churchill's did in 1945. He surely knows that, and so too do McDonnell and Corbyn.
    Except if you’re Jewish or if you vote for Brexit momentum will come and get you - hardly a clean slate
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If we have an election soon will Johnson make a repeat do-or-die pledge to exit the transition by a specific date?

    It looks like that is the next battleground the ERG might be moving onto.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    DougSeal said:

    Alistair said:

    Getting a deal was not some masterclass of negotiation.


    If we knew Boris was prepared to ditch his opposition to a border down the Irish Sea then I think even the dullest person on here would have predicted a deal being done in short order.
    Yes - my prediction of there not being a deal was predicated on taking the assurances of PB Tories (and Boris) that such a thing would not happen. Just goes to show, never trust a Conservative. The DUP must be bitterly regretting propping them up for so long, a lesson we LDs learned the hard way of course.
    Not just sleeping with the enemy, but indulging in extreme bondage games with a psychopath who just wants to kill you.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    nico67 said:

    Possibly but this is a case of good cop bad cop . Corbyn playing the good cop but others in Labour are going after them .

    Labour MPs who support this deal are toast .

    Corbyn does not need to remove the whip...any Lab MP that cosies up to Johnson's deal will be vilified by the entire movement...that should be sufficient to keeping the majority in line
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others
    I do not think that HYUFD uses "diehard" as a compliment.
    It's not an insult either is it? Not in the region of the constant referrals to Leavers as being mentally ill, members of a cult etc from people who disagree with them on the referendum
    My impression is that it is intended as a pejorative.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    geoffw said:

    Stocky said:


    Yes, LP has been a disgrace. Until recently much of the electorate hadn`t twigged this and were irrationally blaming the Conservative Party for not delivering the ref result, but I think they`ve figured it out now. Labour Party is in a bad place.

    I actually think that they may be best to vote for the deal - at least they can say that they were intstrumental in some way.

    Correct. Once this phase of Brexit is done we'll all move on to other things and the slate is wiped clean for the LP. Boris's victory will not stand the Tories in good stead any more than Churchill's did in 1945. He surely knows that, and so too do McDonnell and Corbyn.
    Except if you’re Jewish or if you vote for Brexit momentum will come and get you - hardly a clean slate
    Well yes, the antisemitism remains there, but that is by now surely factored in.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Not insignificant that Nobel peace prizewinning GFA signatory David Trimble is backing this deal
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others
    I do not think that HYUFD uses "diehard" as a compliment.
    It's not an insult either is it? Not in the region of the constant referrals to Leavers as being mentally ill, members of a cult etc from people who disagree with them on the referendum
    My impression is that it is intended as a pejorative.
    I think it is colourfully descriptive.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Fair enough I'm sure Johnson does believe in the Union at some level. He keeps talking about Britain, so we have to assume it's a thing for him. But it isn't a priority for him as it is for May, and as this header points out. He won't take action to support the Union if other things dictate otherwise.

    What are Johnson's priorities? Frankly on the evidence: himself.
    Like so many English Brexiteers (as evidenced on here), BJ hasn't made the necessary differentiation between England and the UK. This it almost goes without saying means he has no understanding of Scotland, but barely any about Scottish Unionism.
    Yes. You and I obviously come from different places on this. But even I accept it's over for the Union, if English aren't prepared to make it work.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    148grss said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.

    His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"

    I don’t really understand how the US draft dodgers get away with it, in public opinion, with the culture here about veterans, service and duty, whereas for example Kerry had so much of what he did or didn’t do while serving used against him.
    It's a weird one. I think it's because most people didn't agree with the draft, especially for Vietnam? But it is a paradox...
    I think the right hated Kerry for “stabbing America in the back” by testifying to Congress about the actions of US soldiers in Vietnam. One of the Burns/Novick documentary episodes goes into this period in some detail. The whole “swift-boat“ stuff was a dog-whistle to remind that population of Kerry’s past actions more than anything else I suspect.

    (Yes, none of this is rational, but the Vietnam War wasn’t rational. Watching that series made it pretty clear that if you thought the U.K. was suffering on all sides from Brexit-derangement syndrome then that has /nothing/ on what the Vietnam War did to the U.S. polity which was on a whole other level of madness.)
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    The irony in all of this is that Labour claim to be opposing the deal because it makes possible deregulation (even though it doesn't actually deregulate anything). But by opposing it, they are ensuring Leave seats across the North, Midlands and Wales fall to the Tories, which will actually make deregulation happen.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    Not a surprise he was always a yes . What we want to see is a surprise yes or no . So far it’s all a bit dull !
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others
    I do not think that HYUFD uses "diehard" as a compliment.
    It's not an insult either is it? Not in the region of the constant referrals to Leavers as being mentally ill, members of a cult etc from people who disagree with them on the referendum
    My impression is that it is intended as a pejorative.
    "Diehard Leaver" would be one of the most polite ways a Leave voter has been described on here over the last 3-4 years
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    FF43 said:


    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Fair enough I'm sure Johnson does believe in the Union at some level. He keeps talking about Britain, so we have to assume it's a thing for him. But it isn't a priority for him as it is for May, and as this header points out. He won't take action to support the Union if other things dictate otherwise.

    What are Johnson's priorities? Frankly on the evidence: himself.
    Like so many English Brexiteers (as evidenced on here), BJ hasn't made the necessary differentiation between England and the UK. This it almost goes without saying means he has no understanding of Scotland, but barely any about Scottish Unionism.
    Yes. You and I obviously come from different places on this. But even I accept it's over for the Union, if English aren't prepared to make it work.
    If you look at how young Scots voted in IndyRef, it is over in the long run anyway. Unless the SNP mess it up by rerunning the vote too soon.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    The irony in all of this is that Labour claim to be opposing the deal because it makes possible deregulation (even though it doesn't actually deregulate anything). But by opposing it, they are ensuring Leave seats across the North, Midlands and Wales fall to the Tories, which will actually make deregulation happen.

    I have to say of all the excuses for not voting for this, this seems the weakest. The whole point of leaving is supposedly we get to choose these kind of issues, and so if Labour get into power they can legislate to regulate to their hearts content. They can take every EU directive, gold plate it and copy it into UK law.

    But then Jezza never read the first WA and announced he was against this new deal before the actual details had even been released.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    If we have an election soon will Johnson make a repeat do-or-die pledge to exit the transition by a specific date?

    It looks like that is the next battleground the ERG might be moving onto.

    What - the ERG are making their criterion a pledge along the lines of "I know I lied to you last time, but believe me this time"?

    Suggestions, please, as to the average IQ of these people.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Gabs2 said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
    When you argue for annexing part of an independent Scotland you don't need to bother with insulting one person when you're already insulting millions of them.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Where the White Queen failed, the black (c)rook now has the Red King checkmated. Is BoJo a chess champion?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others
    I do not think that HYUFD uses "diehard" as a compliment.
    It's not an insult either is it? Not in the region of the constant referrals to Leavers as being mentally ill, members of a cult etc from people who disagree with them on the referendum
    It is an insult and extremist language.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Gabs2 said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
    When you argue for annexing part of an independent Scotland you don't need to bother with insulting one person when you're already insulting millions of them.
    Completely different point to the one I made.
  • If we have an election soon will Johnson make a repeat do-or-die pledge to exit the transition by a specific date?

    It looks like that is the next battleground the ERG might be moving onto.

    I wonder what Boris's deal has to say about the transition exit date. Whether it is extendible, for example, and under what conditions. It's only just over a year till the end of 2020!
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Gabs, assuming they don't change their opinions over decades.

    People do often change their minds as they get older.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,728
    Phil said:

    148grss said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.

    His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"

    I don’t really understand how the US draft dodgers get away with it, in public opinion, with the culture here about veterans, service and duty, whereas for example Kerry had so much of what he did or didn’t do while serving used against him.
    It's a weird one. I think it's because most people didn't agree with the draft, especially for Vietnam? But it is a paradox...
    I think the right hated Kerry for “stabbing America in the back” by testifying to Congress about the actions of US soldiers in Vietnam. One of the Burns/Novick documentary episodes goes into this period in some detail. The whole “swift-boat“ stuff was a dog-whistle to remind that population of Kerry’s past actions more than anything else I suspect.

    (Yes, none of this is rational, but the Vietnam War wasn’t rational. Watching that series made it pretty clear that if you thought the U.K. was suffering on all sides from Brexit-derangement syndrome then that has /nothing/ on what the Vietnam War did to the U.S. polity which was on a whole other level of madness.)
    I had a cousin who was a senior officer with the Australians in Vietnam. Regular army and decorated for combat against Japan so no shrinking violet, but he too came back from Vietnam bitterly disillusioned, particularly with the cavalier attitude by the Americans to civilian casualties.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    I think @HYUFD can only be some parody account dreamt up by @SeanT. Only that would explain the nonsense he is now writing. It can only be a matter of time before he/SeanT starts talking about how Antrim will get its own nuclear weapons.

    We have them already. They are called the DUP :D
    :D:D:D
  • malcolmg said:

    Unclear why people think this deal is bad for Union.

    Most people in NI will breathe sigh of relief that there is no hard border. DUP losing face will help to keep nationalist-minded community on board with UK.

    In Scotland, most folk want Brexit over and simply don't want another IndyRef. There will be no SNP landslide. Fishing and farming leaders have endorsed Boris's deal, including Andrew McCornick (NFU Scotland chair) who usually is warm to ScotGov. So that helps to shore up SCon vote in rural and NE seats. SCon MPs are going to be very sticky.

    And I don't think the SNP argument about Scotland having same deal as Ulster will resonate that much. Its understood that NI is a special case. Don't mistake the preoccupations of the Nat bubble with mainstream Scottish opinion.

    Garbage from you as usual, you know zero about Scotland given the dribble you post. Majority want a referendum and when it comes a majority will want independence. Nobody believes NI is any more a special case than Scotland. Acouple of millionaire Tory farmers and fisherman do not constitute the public of Scotland you halfwitted dullard.
    Well, Malc, the proof will be in the pudding, won't it. I expect a period of silence from you after the next GE similar in duration to that which occurred after June 2017 when Salmond, Robertson et al bit the dust.
    You have a surprising knowledge of PB history for such a recent visitor, well done for observing a period of silence up to August of this year. Good that PB has a new voice that alternates between sockpuppeting for BJ Brexit and SNPbaaad, we just don't get enough of that.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
    When you argue for annexing part of an independent Scotland you don't need to bother with insulting one person when you're already insulting millions of them.
    That isn't true at all. Just because he is ignorant about the borders population does not mean it is equivalent to personal attacks. HYUFD has crazy views, but he suffers far more attacks from others and never gives them out, even under provocation.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Well, yes, but it was good old mindless buccaneering raw politics which got us here in the first place - specifically, Cameron's inability to think like a lawyer (or, indeed, an adult) and say, OK, I have a plan for when things go the way I expect them to go. What is my plan for when they don't?
    I think this is an interesting exchange. Raw politics drives a lot of actual decision-making and it's very powerful when focused (and when Johnson focuses he's good at it), though often not conducive to getting an objectively good result. Policy wonks, good at analysis and honing effective policy, who are also good at raw politics are very rare - Bill Clinton, perhaps - can people suggest others?

    A substitute is willingness to take advice from wonks and then push it through - Reagan is widely credited with that, and you can argue that Blair and Thatcher were too. Blair's performance deteriorated IMO when he started to get deeper into policy - he became obsessed with a couple of controversial issues (Iraq, PFI), started saying "I" instead of "we" and generally lost the overall vision that he started with and was so good at communicating.
    Very interesting.

    Thatcher famously told her advisers that Reagan had a 'complete lack of grey matter' and it was commented that if the Americans really knew what Thatcher thought of Reagan's abilities it would've ruined the special relationship.

    Yet she genuinely liked and cared about him (and flirted with him) and saw him as someone with a warmth and ability to listen which had a dramatic (world-changing) effect on the Cold War.
    Don’t you think Reagan was just lucky? The US outspent the USSR in the arms race to the point where the latter was unable to sustain its empire in Eastern Europe. The reasons the US did so were the powerful military-industrial factions within America that wanted to sustain their financial position (the same factions who pushed the “war” on terrorism more recently for the same reasons). Reagan went along with this because that’s how his party and his presidency worked. He struck lucky when the Soviet empire collapsed on his watch.
    It happened in autumn 1989, under Bush Snr. But i accept the point that the increased military spending under Reagan pushed the SU and warsaw pact to destruction. I always remember the failed coup in 1991? That was a worrying time!
This discussion has been closed.