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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach diff
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach differed from TMay’s
I have consistently misunderstood the Brexit options open to the UK as existing on a continuum, from the softest Single Market + Customs Union extreme on one end to the hardest No Deal extreme on the other. The choices made by Boris Johnson, and the relative speed with which the UK and EU were able to reach agreement on a radically different deal, have made it clear that the main options have been much more discrete.
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Reallly ?
I hadn’t come across that one before. It effectively argues that those who voted remain have no right to a say in what kind of Brexit we get to suffer.
Though granted that does seem to be the attitude of a not inconsiderable number of leavers.
Nice lateral thinking there. Indeed, there is more than one way to self harm.
We could add a third possibility---revoke.
Try getting that through Parliament......Grieve et al will want Remain on the ballot.....
BXP are still inevitably screaming betrayal so I'm still on the fuck this side: Nationalism is a disease, and trying to compromise with nationalists is dumb. But if at least the Tories are accepting it I do think that makes a material difference.
https://twitter.com/mdouganlpool/status/1184948125838008321?s=19
Incidentally one of the little commented problems of the FTPA is the nightmare that it creates for LA election departments in election planning. Most do simply not have the resources to retain a constant high state of election readiness made worse when they have other things to deal with like annual canvass etc. Elections in this country do not happen seamlessly, they require a high degree of planning and this is traditionally aided by significant levels of under the radar communication with government officials. Taking the power to call elections out of the hands of the PM has made that much harder. Whilst they were probably OK with occasional unexpected snap elections a la 2017, that is very different from where we are now. Expect trouble if and when one is called.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1184790594020925440
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1184900824608264193?s=19
Still not convinced this will pass the Commons.
The other way of course would have been to go to No Deal and impose a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland complete with checkpoints etc. The DUP might support that, as would some ERG hardliners like Owen Paterson however it would have made a return to terrorism and the Troubles in Northern Ireland likely and polls show a majority of Northern Ireland voters prefer a United Ireland to a hard border with the Republic of Ireland anyway so it would not in reality preserve the UK at all. Even if the British did not impose a hard border the Irish likely would have done and it would have required ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and the sending of troops back into Northern Ireland to keep the angry Catholic and Nationalist community under control and deal with a resurgent IRA.
Plus of course No Deal would also have made Scots more likely to vote for independence too as Scottish polls show, again threatening the Union
Brexit is the end of the union.
Welcome to the next round of interminable Brexit related fractiousness.
The price of Yellow support is a 2nd referendum, as with the Oranges, but with a rather different question.
Corbyn has already ruled this out. All other considerations aside the overwhelming likelihood is the Tories will win a clear majority in England.
Therefore, he either has to renege on a public commitment and look like a liar on day 1 of his administration (admittedly anyone who has been watching knows that already) or he has to go for majority government.
Which of those options do you think is on the table?
It has already carved off NI, and as pointed out earlier, if NI can have special arrangements, why can't Scotland?
The Little Englanders have prioritized Brexit over the Union.
It is hard to see a referendum of the type you imagine however, and I suspect you were proposing it slightly tongue in cheek. People are simply too fed up with Brexit and the point has been reached where almost any decision is preferable to no decision.
Johnson will get this through, and we will all digest it at our leisure.
The business community is on board with his deal. The DUP are not. But they have come up with no workable alternative proposals. They are chasing unicorns.
Most voters will buy that.
He sold Brexit to the public, despite it being a crock of shit.
Now he has sold a worse deal than May, despite it being a crock of shit.
This is not the measure of a good politician.
ii) No recent history of terrorism on that border.
But apart from that......
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1185082630506717184
The ongoing war within Labour high command is not over
Remainers have still been able to stop Leavers from making the most destructive choice, No Deal, so it's not the same as saying they shouldn't be involved at all.
The UK is currently the 5th largest economy in the world, England alone would be the 7th largest economy in the world, so little different even if Wales and Scotland voted for independence and Northern Ireland for a united Ireland. The loss of India and the British Empire was much more significant than the breakup of the Union would be as it saw us lose our superpower status
Which is why the CCHQ spin team will use social media to remind voters of Labour's eat-the-rich policies that are not in the manifesto.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-s-conservatives-hire-kiwi-gurus-who-worked-on-morrison-s-shock-win-20191008-p52yia.html
As I've said before (and as Corbyn nudged and winked), an abstention won't cause them to lose the whip/be deselected. 15 abstentions will probably do the job....and get Corbyn his Brexit.
Avoiding No Deal will be enough for most Scots bar the SNP and diehard Nationalists who only want to use Brexit as their latest excuse for independence anyway
Can we rule out the possibility that this is going to play out like the "Sufficient Progress" talks did? There's a Deal, everyone seems happy, but the UK's concessions (then the No Hard Border stuff, now the slicing off of NI) weaken it in the next stage?
As Letwin said exactly that on the radio this morning, he’s probably right....
May was just very poor at politics. Her deal may have been economically a bit better (which I'm not convinced about either) but politically it was poison for her, the party and the country as it would have allowed the betrayal narrative to continue and the likes of Nige would have taken advantage of public loathing of it.
The best stamp of approval for this deal was Nige's tweet yesterday about not being allowed another delay. He, like the rest of the Spartans, realises the game is up, Boris has delivered a deal that is acceptable to the public, the EU and it should get just about enough support in the commons. It also fulfils the "Leave" criteria in a way that May's deal didn't leaving him with nothing but crumbs to feed brexit party voters at the next election.
I still think it’s a crap argument, though. Leavers did not win an election which gave them the right to dictate Brexit terms, and only May and Corbyn’s utter uselessness allowed them to do so.