politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg g
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg getting the biggest ratings boost
Fivethirtyeight.com
Comments
-
Pro tip for potential thread writers.
You need a lots of modesty to write a good thread.0 -
I feel the same about my 500/1 tip on Bercow as next PM.0
-
Douglas0
-
‘I’m Starting Not to Care That She Is Brutal to Her Staff’
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/16/dem-primary-debate-october-roundup-2298540 -
0
-
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11847493988001300480 -
Hello Mr Eek, let me tell you something about Robert Peston's prediction ratio...eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11847493988001300480 -
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
If you assume that the first aim of Boris is nothing to do with the EU but only about remaining PM for as long as possible - he is after all a politician - then the question may be starting to look like How can he stay in power when Remain is the only option, though it cannot be acknowledged. The Benn Act gets him to first base. What next? A smart move may be to drift towards the democracy of suggesting that the passage of time means that any deal needs to be confirmed by a referendum..... Another smart move may be to drift towards the 'Regretful Impossibilist' position - leaving was a nice try but world peace and the GFA and the intransigence of others means the moment is not right........eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
0 -
So the majority of respected journalists reckon it's almost there and yet Robert Peston who doesn't want Brexit thinks it won't happen and you believe him? I know who my money is on.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
Let me guess, all the Brexit boosters who were crowing a couple of days ago are now saying wait and see. Such consistency!eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11847493988001300480 -
The consensus on the overnight pb thread on the debate was that Amy Klobuchar smirked and that was about it, so it is interesting to see her polling uptick. Perhaps just reminding people she is alive did the trick. I have a mere 100/1 slip but it is written off.
The question for trading is, I think, what happens when one of the big three drops out: where do their supporters go? But that is unlikely to happen before Iowa which is still four months away.0 -
That last line is noteworthy. If there are defections rightward, then the Tories are in real trouble. Could they end up with fewer seats than Labour?eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.
At the moment the difference is 43.0 -
It's interesting that the pound has now reversed all the losses that followed the DUP statement this morning.Brom said:
So the majority of respected journalists reckon it's almost there and yet Robert Peston who doesn't want Brexit thinks it won't happen and you believe him? I know who my money is on.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
I’ll believe whatever is the outcome when I see it.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.
The best thing I think David Cameron ever said, was his off-the-cuff remark about Twitter.
It’s taking rolling TV news and putting it on speed, turning the 24-hour news cycle into a minute-by-minute race to be first with ‘the news’, even if what is being said is total bollocks. I don’t want them to have an opinion or reporting sources of sources, I want them to be accurate and timely in reporting what’s actually going on.1 -
The key outcome in the 538 table is that Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg all did better than Biden. The rest is all about extremely unlikely potential outcomes, of interest only to those involved in fringe betting positions.
OK, I acknowledge that it's a political betting site so I'm not having a go at the thread comments in that sense.0 -
Meanwhile out in the non-PB world retail sales are 19% higher than they were five years ago:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j5ek/drsi
No matter how much whining about 'austerity', how tatty high streets look and how much posturing about climate change takes place people want to consume more.
And there's lots and lots of people who are doing so.0 -
A distinction without a difference.williamglenn said:0 -
So now the ERG nutjobs want to change the terms of the transition period .
You can’t have a standstill transition without EU law . It’s not legally possible .0 -
However provided the GB backstop is removed less so for most British Leavers bar the hardliners already still voting Brexit Party.williamglenn said:
To pass the Commons without DUP votes though it would require the support of at least 20 Labour MPs and more if some of the ERG or the 21 Tory rebels vote against
0 -
When we have little substance to work on other than 'insider' journalists you've got to assume the £ is the best indicator of progress. But again is it likely that a deal is so close and falls at the final hurdle? You've got to assume if there are genuine issues on the DUP side these will be resolved.Chris said:
It's interesting that the pound has now reversed all the losses that followed the DUP statement this morning.Brom said:
So the majority of respected journalists reckon it's almost there and yet Robert Peston who doesn't want Brexit thinks it won't happen and you believe him? I know who my money is on.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
No, given Labour MPs are also still defecting to the LDs or leaving the party, see Ellmann this morningOldKingCole said:
That last line is noteworthy. If there are defections rightward, then the Tories are in real trouble. Could they end up with fewer seats than Labour?eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.
At the moment the difference is 43.0 -
Heath's message to ERG this morning:
"[Boris] is on your side, not against you, your best possible ally and last realistic hope. How much better do you think it could get? And if he can’t get it through now, wouldn’t Mr Johnson campaign on this deal when an election is finally held? And if, instead, he is destroyed, don’t you think we could yet end up with a Remainer government?"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/16/may-leavers-last-realistic-chance-achieve-proper-brexit/0 -
What you don't need, apparently, is a proof reader.TheScreamingEagles said:Pro tip for potential thread writers.
You need a lots of modesty to write a good thread.0 -
Warren, then Biden, then Sanders still the 3 most favoured by Democratic voters post debate0
-
I'm not so sure, that DUP statement sounds fairly terminal to me for their support. His only hope is full ERG and Gaukeward backing as near as he can get it and 'some' indies and labourBrom said:
When we have little substance to work on other than 'insider' journalists you've got to assume the £ is the best indicator of progress. But again is it likely that a deal is so close and falls at the final hurdle? You've got to assume if there are genuine issues on the DUP side these will be resolved.Chris said:
It's interesting that the pound has now reversed all the losses that followed the DUP statement this morning.Brom said:
So the majority of respected journalists reckon it's almost there and yet Robert Peston who doesn't want Brexit thinks it won't happen and you believe him? I know who my money is on.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
Yes, very interesting figures. A huge amount of flux in the retail sector, with a number of high-profile business failures, yet overall sales remain on an upward trajectory.another_richard said:Meanwhile out in the non-PB world retail sales are 19% higher than they were five years ago:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j5ek/drsi
No matter how much whining about 'austerity', how tatty high streets look and how much posturing about climate change takes place people want to consume more.
And there's lots and lots of people who are doing so.0 -
Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
The careful language sounds far from terminal. Think the pound would be sliding if that were the case.dyedwoolie said:
I'm not so sure, that DUP statement sounds fairly terminal to me for their support. His only hope is full ERG and Gaukeward backing as near as he can get it and 'some' indies and labourBrom said:
When we have little substance to work on other than 'insider' journalists you've got to assume the £ is the best indicator of progress. But again is it likely that a deal is so close and falls at the final hurdle? You've got to assume if there are genuine issues on the DUP side these will be resolved.Chris said:
It's interesting that the pound has now reversed all the losses that followed the DUP statement this morning.Brom said:
So the majority of respected journalists reckon it's almost there and yet Robert Peston who doesn't want Brexit thinks it won't happen and you believe him? I know who my money is on.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
2nd ref died when the Libs moved to revoke. Certainly expect the People's Vote campaign to wind down after this weekend.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
Boris would probably campaign on something close to this Deal and if he gets a Tory majority would then be able to deliver it whatever the DUP think.rottenborough said:Heath's message to ERG this morning:
"[Boris] is on your side, not against you, your best possible ally and last realistic hope. How much better do you think it could get? And if he can’t get it through now, wouldn’t Mr Johnson campaign on this deal when an election is finally held? And if, instead, he is destroyed, don’t you think we could yet end up with a Remainer government?"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/16/may-leavers-last-realistic-chance-achieve-proper-brexit/
The fact Boris now leads Corbyn as preferred PM even with Remain voting 18 to 24 year olds and even in Remain voting London is also a huge boost to him as it means Boris can lose some voters to the Brexit Party and still win a clear Tory majority overall.
In fact now the Tories have a huge 15% lead over Corbyn Labour in the latest poll even with the Brexit Party on 11% ie UKIP 2015 levels.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1184465365956550666?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184423860978049025?s=200 -
That's, what, 3.5% rise per year?another_richard said:Meanwhile out in the non-PB world retail sales are 19% higher than they were five years ago:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j5ek/drsi
No matter how much whining about 'austerity', how tatty high streets look and how much posturing about climate change takes place people want to consume more.
And there's lots and lots of people who are doing so.0 -
A referendum isn’t a one-page Bill, it’s a year-long process requiring Parliamentary input and decisions at a number of stages.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
There’s not the numbers in favour of any specific version of a referendum.
The EU don’t seem minded to take Brexit into the next Commission, are unlikely to offer the required A50 extension.0 -
Barnier still in talks and going to the wire.0
-
Force an election and revoke it afterwards?Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
That's the LibDems' policy if they win a majority at the next election.Brom said:
2nd ref died when the Libs moved to revoke. Certainly expect the People's Vote campaign to wind down after this weekend.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
This side of a general election, they say they'll still vote for a referendum any opportunity they're given.1 -
That does seem to be the mood music in the EU especially from FranceSandpit said:
A referendum isn’t a one-page Bill, it’s a year-long process requiring Parliamentary input and decisions at a number of stages.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
There’s not the numbers in favour of any specific version of a referendum.
The EU don’t seem minded to take Brexit into the next Commission, are unlikely to offer the required A50 extension.0 -
Lib Dem policy is still for a referendumBrom said:
2nd ref died when the Libs moved to revoke. Certainly expect the People's Vote campaign to wind down after this weekend.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
And there we have the problem that the government doesn't have the numbers to "force" anything on their own. But we've done this one beforedyedwoolie said:
Force an election and revoke it afterwards?Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
0 -
I dont see how there is enough movement to them now, they wont get their veto and there has to be a customs border somewhere under this dealBrom said:
The careful language sounds far from terminal. Think the pound would be sliding if that were the case.dyedwoolie said:
I'm not so sure, that DUP statement sounds fairly terminal to me for their support. His only hope is full ERG and Gaukeward backing as near as he can get it and 'some' indies and labourBrom said:
When we have little substance to work on other than 'insider' journalists you've got to assume the £ is the best indicator of progress. But again is it likely that a deal is so close and falls at the final hurdle? You've got to assume if there are genuine issues on the DUP side these will be resolved.Chris said:
It's interesting that the pound has now reversed all the losses that followed the DUP statement this morning.Brom said:
So the majority of respected journalists reckon it's almost there and yet Robert Peston who doesn't want Brexit thinks it won't happen and you believe him? I know who my money is on.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
Well there is not the numbers for it and there would need to be a GE with substantial Lib Dem gains before a referendum becomes likely. Without a GE it just won't happen.Danny565 said:
That's the LibDems' policy if they win a majority at the next election.Brom said:
2nd ref died when the Libs moved to revoke. Certainly expect the People's Vote campaign to wind down after this weekend.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
This side of a general election, they say they'll still vote for a referendum any opportunity they're given.0 -
Correct, and faster than me.Danny565 said:
That's the LibDems' policy if they win a majority at the next election.Brom said:
2nd ref died when the Libs moved to revoke. Certainly expect the People's Vote campaign to wind down after this weekend.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
This side of a general election, they say they'll still vote for a referendum any opportunity they're given.
0 -
No certainty there will be a deal by satuurdayrottenborough said:0 -
Warren increased her poll standing despite already being top. That's not bad.0
-
The pound is behaving like a banana republic currency fluctuating every time a politician farts. It’s actually only .2 of a cent higher than the 24 hour low.Chris said:
It's interesting that the pound has now reversed all the losses that followed the DUP statement this morning.Brom said:
So the majority of respected journalists reckon it's almost there and yet Robert Peston who doesn't want Brexit thinks it won't happen and you believe him? I know who my money is on.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
3.5% year after year soon leads to a big increase.Noo said:
That's, what, 3.5% rise per year?another_richard said:Meanwhile out in the non-PB world retail sales are 19% higher than they were five years ago:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j5ek/drsi
No matter how much whining about 'austerity', how tatty high streets look and how much posturing about climate change takes place people want to consume more.
And there's lots and lots of people who are doing so.
And its not as if we were under-consuming five years ago.0 -
I don't know that I have a view on "under-consuming", I'm just trying to contextualise it. 19% sounds like a lot. 3.5% sounds like it's above, but not dramatically so, wage inflation.another_richard said:
3.5% year after year soon leads to a big increase.Noo said:
That's, what, 3.5% rise per year?another_richard said:Meanwhile out in the non-PB world retail sales are 19% higher than they were five years ago:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j5ek/drsi
No matter how much whining about 'austerity', how tatty high streets look and how much posturing about climate change takes place people want to consume more.
And there's lots and lots of people who are doing so.
And its not as if we were under-consuming five years ago.0 -
0
-
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
BTW huge congratulations on your appointment as Trump’s history adviser, I see you’ve already had an impact.Morris_Dancer said:Warren increased her poll standing despite already being top. That's not bad.
https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1184514202406400002?s=21
https://twitter.com/dkeetz/status/1184597223465783299?s=210 -
Yep.Sandpit said:
A referendum isn’t a one-page Bill, it’s a year-long process requiring Parliamentary input and decisions at a number of stages.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
There’s not the numbers in favour of any specific version of a referendum.
The EU don’t seem minded to take Brexit into the next Commission, are unlikely to offer the required A50 extension.
This needs to be done by month end, bar dotting i's and crossing t's.
A further referendum to "confirm" (ie, another opportunity for Remain to can the whole process) still leaves a steaming pile of poo on the desk of the new Commission.0 -
Heidi Allen was right! Refusing to respect the vote has led to the UK becoming the kind of Banana Republic SHE doesnt want to live in.nichomar said:
The pound is behaving like a banana republic currency fluctuating every time a politician farts. It’s actually only .2 of a cent higher than the 24 hour low.Chris said:
It's interesting that the pound has now reversed all the losses that followed the DUP statement this morning.Brom said:
So the majority of respected journalists reckon it's almost there and yet Robert Peston who doesn't want Brexit thinks it won't happen and you believe him? I know who my money is on.eek said:
AgreedSandpit said:
Wouldn’t it be good if the Pol Ed of a major TV channel could write in neutral language?eek said:The wheels are really coming off Boris's deal
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184749398800130048
But it's more the news that both the DUP and whats left of the ERG don't like this deal so it's probably dead.
and the bxp may have a few mps on monday morning.0 -
Very hard to forsee the EU sticking around for months and months for us to have a referendum that possibly decides nothing. The 2nd ref ship sailed long ago and Jezza probably knows that.MarqueeMark said:
Yep.Sandpit said:
A referendum isn’t a one-page Bill, it’s a year-long process requiring Parliamentary input and decisions at a number of stages.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
There’s not the numbers in favour of any specific version of a referendum.
The EU don’t seem minded to take Brexit into the next Commission, are unlikely to offer the required A50 extension.
This needs to be done by month end, bar dotting i's and crossing t's.
A further referendum to "confirm" (ie, another opportunity for Remain to can the whole process) still leaves a steaming pile of poo on the desk of the new Commission.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I see Trump's grasp of history matches both your own and his grasp of Middle Eastern realpolitik.1
-
It would be interesting to do some systematic analysis of the history of this but I'm not convinced the currency markets are any better at reading what's going on with brexit than we are.Brom said:The careful language sounds far from terminal. Think the pound would be sliding if that were the case.
0 -
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).Xtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
Is this not just a clever attempt to kill any deal? If enough MPs exist to pass this amendment, then the government would just withdraw the bill, and if the amendment doesn't pass it gives cover to many Lab MPs, and a few of the non-Tory whipless, to refuse to vote for it anyway. If Johnson somehow accepted the amendment, he'd be crucified, or would end up whipping against his own deal in a vote?Morris_Dancer said:0 -
Sounds a longshot unless you know something about the parliamentary arithmetic that we dontDanny565 said:
The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).Xtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
Yes, Tories will be whipped to oppose any referendumXtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
The key is the EU. I very much doubt they will allow an extension for months for a referendum, more likely to allow for a GEDanny565 said:
The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).Xtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
Elijah Cummings has died overnight0
-
Fancy choosing to do this in Canning Town 🙈
https://twitter.com/mahatir_pasha/status/1184713704673366016?s=210 -
On a scale of 1 - 100 how bad do we think the POTUS response will be?dyedwoolie said:Elijah Cummings has died overnight
I'm going for a round 1000..........0 -
Remember that the *ONLY* thing the Opposition care about at this stage, is getting Boris Johnson’s signature on the extension request letter. Seen through that prism it all makes sense.148grss said:
Is this not just a clever attempt to kill any deal? If enough MPs exist to pass this amendment, then the government would just withdraw the bill, and if the amendment doesn't pass it gives cover to many Lab MPs, and a few of the non-Tory whipless, to refuse to vote for it anyway. If Johnson somehow accepted the amendment, he'd be crucified, or would end up whipping against his own deal in a vote?Morris_Dancer said:0 -
I don't think that's true. Before a referendum everyone is arguing about whether there should be a referendum and what your position is on that, but once it's done what matters is the result.Xtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
If Boris makes a big bold, optimistic speech about winning a referendum to get brexit done, then wins a referendum and gets brexit done, he looks great. If he fights the referendum and loses it then that's bad, but arguably it's still better to put the issue back in its box (admittedly still bumping around and emitting muffled screaming sounds) than run against BXP defending any actual achievable brexit.0 -
Fair to say they weren't close148grss said:
On a scale of 1 - 100 how bad do we think the POTUS response will be?dyedwoolie said:Elijah Cummings has died overnight
I'm going for a round 1000..........0 -
They may well be but there is theoretically an anti-government majority in parliament who could impose any damn thing they wanted. Of course they are understandably fighting like cats in a sack so are unlikely to be so organised but the numbers are there should they so organise.HYUFD said:
Yes, Tories will be whipped to oppose any referendumXtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?0 -
Think you're misjudging Tory support. If he accepts a referendum Tory vote will collapse. Definitely won't happen.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think that's true. Before a referendum everyone is arguing about whether there should be a referendum and what your position is on that, but once it's done what matters is the result.Xtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
If Boris makes a big bold, optimistic speech about winning a referendum to get brexit done, then wins a referendum and gets brexit done, he looks great. If he fights the referendum and loses it then that's bad, but arguably it's still better to put the issue back in its box (admittedly still bumping around and emitting muffled screaming sounds) than run against BXP defending any actual achievable brexit.0 -
Why would the EU risk a general election that may not actually resolve anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key is the EU. I very much doubt they will allow an extension for months for a referendum, more likely to allow for a GEDanny565 said:
The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).Xtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
A referendum at least puts an end to this unless we have an exact 50/50 split.1 -
Puts an end to it how? the last one clearly didn't. If there is a deal on the table EU will expect us to vote it through this time. There is no benefit on their side for either a GE or 2nd Ref. That time has passed.eek said:
Why would the EU risk a general election that may not actually resolve anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key is the EU. I very much doubt they will allow an extension for months for a referendum, more likely to allow for a GEDanny565 said:
The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).Xtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
A referendum at least puts an end to this unless we have an exact 50/50 split.0 -
Rumours the deal is on......
0 -
Deal back on allegedly !0
-
A referendum will not end this and the time taken leaves the UK a full member of the EU with all kinds of implications over vetoes of EU business and disruptive behavioureek said:
Why would the EU risk a general election that may not actually resolve anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key is the EU. I very much doubt they will allow an extension for months for a referendum, more likely to allow for a GEDanny565 said:
The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).Xtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
A referendum at least puts an end to this unless we have an exact 50/50 split.
0 -
Likeliest outcome is he'll say something dignified, then complain a couple of days later that people didn't thank him for saying something dignified and then insult him.148grss said:
On a scale of 1 - 100 how bad do we think the POTUS response will be?dyedwoolie said:Elijah Cummings has died overnight
I'm going for a round 1000..........
And HYUFD will wholeheartedly concur.0 -
No more hokey cokey from you Sir! have faith in the power of negotiation!dyedwoolie said:Rumours the deal is on......
0 -
As they say in Australia, Emma Chisit?Slackbladder said:0 -
Breaking
White smoke from Berlin and reports deal has been agreed
0 -
Dup denial incoming in 3, 2,........0
-
Pretty close, when I just totted them up.Brom said:
Well there is not the numbers for it and there would need to be a GE with substantial Lib Dem gains before a referendum becomes likely. Without a GE it just won't happen.Danny565 said:
That's the LibDems' policy if they win a majority at the next election.Brom said:
2nd ref died when the Libs moved to revoke. Certainly expect the People's Vote campaign to wind down after this weekend.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
This side of a general election, they say they'll still vote for a referendum any opportunity they're given.
If Lab whip for it, they’ve got 244. Assume some hardcore Leavers like Hoey break the whip; say up to 240 for referendum there.
Add 20 from LDs and Stephen Lloyd. That’s 260.
Add the SNP if they go for it. That’s 295.
The Whipless Tories should go for it; most supported it in the IVs. We’re somewhere between 310-315 now. Add Plaid Cymru and the Green - 315-320.
Which means Boris needs all his remaining Tories with no further rebels, the DUP, some Labour rebels, almost all the Independents (Most of whom are ex-Labour) and the Independent Group for Change.
Actually, it could really be on. I hadn’t thought it could be until doing the totting up in response to your post.
0 -
I see the video of commuter direct action against ER has had over 1.4 million views in a little over 3 hours.....0
-
Extreme Remainers telling Winston Smith to change "compromise" to "climb down" in every piece of mediaSlackbladder said:0 -
I'll reserve judgement till Dodds is dragged through the yes lobbyBrom said:
No more hokey cokey from you Sir! have faith in the power of negotiation!dyedwoolie said:Rumours the deal is on......
0 -
So, the Tories would keep Leavers behind them and win a majority under FPTP.TOPPING said:
They may well be but there is theoretically an anti-government majority in parliament who could impose any damn thing they wanted. Of course they are understandably fighting like cats in a sack so are unlikely to be so organised but the numbers are there should they so organise.HYUFD said:
Yes, Tories will be whipped to oppose any referendumXtrain said:
Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.TOPPING said:
The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
As the SNP proved 45% in a referendum means defeat, 45%+ in a general election under FPTP means a landslide0 -
Lab won't get 240, the Kinnock mob won't 100% support a deal but they have already ruled out a referendum so that would be some U-Turn. Half the whipless Tories will support it but all of them? I'm not sure. I think if it gets over 300 it has done well (could be wrong of course!).Andy_Cooke said:
Pretty close, when I just totted them up.Brom said:
Well there is not the numbers for it and there would need to be a GE with substantial Lib Dem gains before a referendum becomes likely. Without a GE it just won't happen.Danny565 said:
That's the LibDems' policy if they win a majority at the next election.Brom said:
2nd ref died when the Libs moved to revoke. Certainly expect the People's Vote campaign to wind down after this weekend.Danny565 said:Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.
I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?
This side of a general election, they say they'll still vote for a referendum any opportunity they're given.
If Lab whip for it, they’ve got 244. Assume some hardcore Leavers like Hoey break the whip; say up to 240 for referendum there.
Add 20 from LDs and Stephen Lloyd. That’s 260.
Add the SNP if they go for it. That’s 295.
The Whipless Tories should go for it; most supported it in the IVs. We’re somewhere between 310-315 now. Add Plaid Cymru and the Green - 315-320.
Which means Boris needs all his remaining Tories with no further rebels, the DUP, some Labour rebels, almost all the Independents (Most of whom are ex-Labour) and the Independent Group for Change.
Actually, it could really be on. I hadn’t thought it could be until doing the totting up in response to your post.0 -
So a deal has been done, apparently.
How exciting!
But remember a deal was done once before but - unaccountably - did not get through Parliament.
So it’s not done until that happens.
So best keep that prosecco (disgusting stuff BTW) on ice for now.0 -
Fingers crossed it is Deal + No Extensions = Brexit by 31st October.......0
-
For anyone who has worked on intercompany relationships at any time.
The quick fixes have a habit of breaking
https://twitter.com/erincandescent/status/11845873235997368370 -
time to wind up labour supporters ....... if the deal gets through without a referendum, the Tories will poll 45% in an opinion poll before end November 0
-
And a 25% gap over both Labour and the LibDems.....dyedwoolie said:time to wind up labour supporters ....... if the deal gets through without a referendum, the Tories will poll 45% in an opinion poll before end November
0 -
Apparently Johnson told EU leaders the deal can get ratified in the Commons in just six days !0
-
Boris announces deal done0
-
Be hilarious if it doesn’t pass the Commons.1
