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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Forget the Commons for a moment. Can a UK government of English Nationalists simply impose a constitutional settlement on NI when the NI representatives are opposed to it?

    Yes
    With reference to the Troubles and GFA? Imposing something a country doesn't want usually is a Bad Idea. Doubly so when its NI.
    Yes but you dont hold 68 million over a barrel for the sake of 2 million
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    I think the priority for Johnson is positioning for the GE in 2020. All else is way down the list. And I think he's sitting pretty so long as he brings back a Deal that his own MPs vote for. If it passes bingo - he's the man who delivered Brexit. Wins GE on the back of that. If it fails also bingo - he can pin the blame on other parties. Wins GE on a "let's get it done FFS" ticket.

    He's playing a blinder. Unfortunately.

    This is how i see it...other than definitely playing a blinder, still high risk but i think this is the strategy.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:
    Its entirely possible. Of course the political problem for Johnson is then that all the people gaslit to believe that a surrender deal isn't proper Brexit will then all trot off to vote for Farage so that Brexit can finally happen.
    They won't as it removes the backstop for GB just leaves it for NI only with control for the Assembly etc
    Its cute that you think these details matter.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    HYUFD said:
    So current vote on deal stands at -9?
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    eekeek Posts: 24,971

    kinabalu said:

    I think the priority for Johnson is positioning for the GE in 2020. All else is way down the list. And I think he's sitting pretty so long as he brings back a Deal that his own MPs vote for. If it passes bingo - he's the man who delivered Brexit. Wins GE on the back of that. If it fails also bingo - he can pin the blame on other parties. Wins GE on a "let's get it done FFS" ticket.

    He's playing a blinder. Unfortunately.

    Agree. The only way it goes wrong is if the other parties make a GNU and deliver brexit, but that's harder to do if Con are pushing a deal as well.
    It also means that Corbyn promising a second Referendum in Scotland once again screwed up last weekend.

    Boris's deal may result in Scotland really wanting a referendum but that doesn't matter if Labour have already promised one even if we don't leave.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,921
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Remainers graciously accepting defeat and trying to see the positives, I see

    "I wasn't trying anyway" up next

    I don’t see a deal as a defeat. We had a deal a year ago. Which was trashed by many of those now in government, for reasons which had more to do with their own egos and personal ambitions than anything particularly wrong with the deal itself.

    But I’d like to know two things:-

    1. What are the terms of this deal
    2. What does it offer Britain that we didn’t have in November 2018 or, indeed, December 2017?

    Or do you somehow think that asking these questions is illegitimate?

    Ask what questions you like, it all seems like what it has always been; wordy lawyers attempting to disguise their sorrow at not getting their own way by playing the concerned neutral
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    Scott_P said:
    How does he know its worse? Has he read it? He didnt even read the first one.
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    XtrainXtrain Posts: 338
    eek said:

    Xtrain said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    How does it hurt Boris's plan - it's likely he will be blocked but can blame Parliament and push for the deal as part of a referendum.

    And I think pushing for it via a referendum is actually less painful for Boris than pushing for an election with us still inside.
    Yes but you don't vote Tory.
    I always have and 2nd ref means I'm off to Brexit party.
    Um, you don't know how I vote - it was Tory until May made a pigs ear of selling her deal - and Boris's deal will be worse once you start looking at it.
    I'm sorry.
    I got the impression you were a Labour supporter but then I only dip in now and then.
    May's deal could have kept us in the CU indefinitely I'm sure Boris's deal won't.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,921

    isam said:
    Its entirely possible. Of course the political problem for Johnson is then that all the people gaslit to believe that a surrender deal isn't proper Brexit will then all trot off to vote for Farage so that Brexit can finally happen.
    Wont happen
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    148grss said:

    I understand more pressing things are occurring here, but did people see this:

    https://twitter.com/mattshuham/status/1184568607952510977

    Everyone thought it was a crude spoof, until they realised it wasn't.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Dadge said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That seems incredibly strange logic to me. If it's "this deal or No Deal", why would the ERG support the deal over their preferred outcome? They're surely only willing to support this deal because they believe Delay/Remain is the alterative.

    Ha!
    Indeed. And the Emergency Exit (Revoke) option still exists.

    I said, last night, that the DUP would not support this, but Boris has his emergency negotiating team (HYUFD) in the Province to sort the DUP out....

    ;)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,892
    If the EU make it clear there’s no extensions to be had, how do Labour vote on Saturday?
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    eekeek Posts: 24,971
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:
    So current vote on deal stands at -9?
    Surelyt it's -19 if the DUP vote against, it's only -9 if they abstain and they aren't going to abstain.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Brom said:

    PClipp said:

    Brom said:

    eek said:

    Danny565 said:

    Xtrain said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.

    I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?

    The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.
    Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.
    The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).
    The key is the EU. I very much doubt they will allow an extension for months for a referendum, more likely to allow for a GE
    Why would the EU risk a general election that may not actually resolve anything.

    A referendum at least puts an end to this unless we have an exact 50/50 split.
    Puts an end to it how? the last one clearly didn't. If there is a deal on the table EU will expect us to vote it through this time. There is no benefit on their side for either a GE or 2nd Ref. That time has passed.
    This time it could be a referendum with all the conditions known, no outside interference, following the rules and known in advance to be binding, not just advisory.

    I would vote differently in such a referendum.
    That wouldn't change anything, the losing side would never accept the result because of the precedent that was set last time. A deal is the only realistic way to settle things.
    Please remind me what the law courts said about our advisory referendum.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That seems incredibly strange logic to me. If it's "this deal or No Deal", why would the ERG support the deal over their preferred outcome? They're surely only willing to support this deal because they believe Delay/Remain is the alterative.
    The ERG would be irrelevant. A Deal vs No Deal shootout would see Labour abstain.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    eek said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:
    So current vote on deal stands at -9?
    Surelyt it's -19 if the DUP vote against, it's only -9 if they abstain and they aren't going to abstain.
    Maybe they will. Could be politically better?
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    Will the election be about getting Brexit done or will it be about the deal that Johnson has signed up to? If it is the latter, it couild get difficult for him given all the protections being remove from the PD.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,971
    edited October 2019
    Withdrawal agreement can be seen at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/revised-withdrawal-agreement_en

    Be warned there is a lot to read and it doesn't look easy.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Will the election be about getting Brexit done or will it be about the deal that Johnson has signed up to? If it is the latter, it couild get difficult for him given all the protections being remove from the PD.

    Level playing field remains in the PD
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.

    Is that ready yet?
    If the EU lets it be known there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances, then the Benn Act is tomorrow's chip paper....
    You’re confusing two things. What the UK has to do under its own laws and what the EU can choose to do.

    Under the Benn Act the PM has to ask for the extension unless the conditions laid out in the Act have been complied with. They may well be by the 19th. Let’s assume for the moment they’re not. In such circumstances an extension has to be requested until 31/1/2020.

    The EU is not obliged to agree. They could say no extension at all. But how likely is that if there is a deal and all that is needed is a short time to tie up all the loose ends, pass all the necessary legislation etc. A short technical extension makes sense for the EU because - having expended all this effort to get a deal (and one which I suspect is even more favourable to the EU than May’s deal was) - why would they throw it away.

    The PM can in those circumstances easily say that he has got a deal by the 31st and the short extension is merely a technical one. He can easily present himself as a hero to Leavers.

    The risk is if Parliament votes down this deal again. In which case the EU will just say, I suspect, oh just Eff Off Britain and we’ll end up with No Deal, which is what some of the Brexiteers want.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Forget the Commons for a moment. Can a UK government of English Nationalists simply impose a constitutional settlement on NI when the NI representatives are opposed to it?

    Yes
    With reference to the Troubles and GFA? Imposing something a country doesn't want usually is a Bad Idea. Doubly so when its NI.
    I think the Deal sucks, simply because it is so complex. Somethings are complex by nature, others are made complex by circumstance, but this one would make Gordon Brown proud....

    Complicated things usually go wrong, are unfixable or have unintended consequences.

    How ironic that Boris is signing up to a Bad Deal .... :D:D
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    Sandpit said:

    If the EU make it clear there’s no extensions to be had, how do Labour vote on Saturday?

    Mainly abstain. Some for revoke.
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    isam said:

    isam said:
    Its entirely possible. Of course the political problem for Johnson is then that all the people gaslit to believe that a surrender deal isn't proper Brexit will then all trot off to vote for Farage so that Brexit can finally happen.
    Wont happen
    Listen to talk radio. Endless angry people insisting no deal is the only form of Brexit. In an election where the BXP offer no deal and the Tories offer BRINO they aren't voting Tory are they
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited October 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.

    Is that ready yet?
    If the EU lets it be known there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances, then the Benn Act is tomorrow's chip paper....
    You’re confusing two things. What the UK has to do under its own laws and what the EU can choose to do.

    Under the Benn Act the PM has to ask for the extension unless the conditions laid out in the Act have been complied with. They may well be by the 19th. Let’s assume for the moment they’re not. In such circumstances an extension has to be requested until 31/1/2020.

    The EU is not obliged to agree. They could say no extension at all. But how likely is that if there is a deal and all that is needed is a short time to tie up all the loose ends, pass all the necessary legislation etc. A short technical extension makes sense for the EU because - having expended all this effort to get a deal (and one which I suspect is even more favourable to the EU than May’s deal was) - why would they throw it away.

    The PM can in those circumstances easily say that he has got a deal by the 31st and the short extension is merely a technical one. He can easily present himself as a hero to Leavers.

    The risk is if Parliament votes down this deal again. In which case the EU will just say, I suspect, oh just Eff Off Britain and we’ll end up with No Deal, which is what some of the Brexiteers want.
    And suits Boris fine too, he can blame No Deal on the opposition having still delivered Brexit
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    Will the election be about getting Brexit done or will it be about the deal that Johnson has signed up to? If it is the latter, it couild get difficult for him given all the protections being remove from the PD.

    People in general dont focus on the detail....it will be get brexit done vs labours lets renegotiate yet again, then this and that and then referendum which they will campaign against and the illberal democrat policy of ignore the vote.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited October 2019
    Sandpit said:

    If the EU make it clear there’s no extensions to be had, how do Labour vote on Saturday?

    I suspect about 30 Labour MPs will defy Corbyn and vote for the Boris Deal over No Deal e.g. Snell, Flint, Mann, Stringer, Kinnock, maybe Nandy etc
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.

    Is that ready yet?
    If the EU lets it be known there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances, then the Benn Act is tomorrow's chip paper....
    The Benn Act is still the law. Johnson would have to ask for an extension. The EU would grant it. Their bluff would be called. But the EU is not going to say there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances. Too many downside risks for them.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    Will the election be about getting Brexit done or will it be about the deal that Johnson has signed up to? If it is the latter, it couild get difficult for him given all the protections being remove from the PD.

    People in general dont focus on the detail....it will be get brexit done vs labours lets renegotiate yet again, then this and that and then referendum which they will campaign against and the illberal democrat policy of ignore the vote.
    That’s not the Lib Dem policy so showing your ignorance there.
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    For all the arguments Boris has agreed a deal to exit the EU on the 31st October
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    Xtrain said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    How does it hurt Boris's plan - it's likely he will be blocked but can blame Parliament and push for the deal as part of a referendum.

    And I think pushing for it via a referendum is actually less painful for Boris than pushing for an election with us still inside.
    Yes but you don't vote Tory.
    I always have and 2nd ref means I'm off to Brexit party.
    But if you're off to Brexit Party, then YOU won't vote Tory :lol:
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That seems incredibly strange logic to me. If it's "this deal or No Deal", why would the ERG support the deal over their preferred outcome? They're surely only willing to support this deal because they believe Delay/Remain is the alterative.
    Because if they don't support Boris's Deal, they won't be Conservative MPs.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    Point 3: that's a lot of people for the reformed IRA to bomb and shoot at?
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.

    Is that ready yet?
    Are you depending on facts again??? You know what view is held about facts these days........

    Fantasies are so much more comfortable :sleeping:
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    For all the arguments Boris has agreed a deal to exit the EU on the 31st October

    Pretty irrelevant if it doesn’t pass the Commons. We already had a deal remember and that didn’t pass either.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679

    eek said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:
    So current vote on deal stands at -9?
    Surelyt it's -19 if the DUP vote against, it's only -9 if they abstain and they aren't going to abstain.
    Maybe they will. Could be politically better?
    Apologies, yeah.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Scott_P said:
    How does he know its worse? Has he read it? He didnt even read the first one.
    Has any one on here read it ? How many MPs have even seen it?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,290
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Makes sense. He is however misunderestimating Nige so that clash will be interesting to watch.
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    Morning all and it seems clear Boris needs to tell Arlene that it's his deal or a referendum on a United Ireland.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    Remainers graciously accepting defeat and trying to see the positives, I see

    "I wasn't trying anyway" up next

    You absolutely sure triumphalism is the way to go (even ignoring prematurity issues)? It sounds about as attractive and appropriate as Churchill doing an open top bus "Suck it up, losers" Dresden tour in 1945.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited October 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.

    Is that ready yet?
    Are you depending on facts again??? You know what view is held about facts these days........

    Fantasies are so much more comfortable :sleeping:
    [Edit: BTW - has the JRM amendment been knobbled? The one that would stop this agreement from starting through Parliament at all]
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    Barnesian said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.

    Is that ready yet?
    If the EU lets it be known there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances, then the Benn Act is tomorrow's chip paper....
    The Benn Act is still the law. Johnson would have to ask for an extension. The EU would grant it. Their bluff would be called. But the EU is not going to say there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances. Too many downside risks for them.
    'The EU would grant it'

    There is no certainty on that especially as the EU sees this as closure

    Barnier says that as of the 1st November we can start working on the FTA
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    HYUFD said:

    No. If Parliament rejects the new WA, the Benn Act remains in force so Johnson will be forced to write to the EU asking for a further extension which the EU could choose to grant or not.

    Barclay said earlier in the week the Government will abide by the law so that's what he would have to do as May effectively had to do when her WA failed.

    The notion Boris Johnson would resign if his WA fails on Saturday is fanciful nonsense. Like most other Prime Ministers, he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming from No.10 either by the voters or his own Party.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114
    Sandpit said:

    If the EU make it clear there’s no extensions to be had, how do Labour vote on Saturday?

    If they are smart, they have a whipped abstention. "This is a Tory Brexit, everything that is a problem in our country in the coming years will be down to this Tory Brexit...."
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,162

    For all the arguments Boris has agreed a deal to exit the EU on the 31st October

    So did Mrs May and her deal gave away less than this one. I daresay Boris can spin it into the deal of the century.l
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,290
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    If the EU make it clear there’s no extensions to be had, how do Labour vote on Saturday?

    I suspect about 30 Labour MPs will defy Corbyn and vote for the Boris Deal over No Deal e.g. Snell, Flint, Mann, Stringer, Kinnock, maybe Nandy etc
    I am interested that you believe your knowledge of the Labour Party trumps that of NickP who has told us he sees the number of Lab MPs who will back the deal as being in single figures.

    Only two more sleeps until we find out.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Scott_P said:
    Would love that. Brexit infighting would be glorious.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Labour will vote against the deal becasue it is a Tory deal. They don't need to read it.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    If the EU make it clear there’s no extensions to be had, how do Labour vote on Saturday?

    I suspect about 30 Labour MPs will defy Corbyn and vote for the Boris Deal over No Deal e.g. Snell, Flint, Mann, Stringer, Kinnock, maybe Nandy etc
    For any new people here, "suspect" is pb commenter language for "hope".
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Remainers graciously accepting defeat and trying to see the positives, I see

    "I wasn't trying anyway" up next

    I don’t see a deal as a defeat. We had a deal a year ago. Which was trashed by many of those now in government, for reasons which had more to do with their own egos and personal ambitions than anything particularly wrong with the deal itself.

    But I’d like to know two things:-

    1. What are the terms of this deal
    2. What does it offer Britain that we didn’t have in November 2018 or, indeed, December 2017?

    Or do you somehow think that asking these questions is illegitimate?

    Ask what questions you like, it all seems like what it has always been; wordy lawyers attempting to disguise their sorrow at not getting their own way by playing the concerned neutral
    Sorry to see you being so ungracious. Seems like what it has always been: Brexiteers unwilling to tell us what the advantages of this deal are to disguise the fact that a deal has been on offer for the last year.

    I have consistently wanted a deal. And consistently wanted to avoid a disorderly withdrawal.

    If this deal avoids the latter it will be a relief. I remain of the view that leaving the EU - and particularly in the way we have gone about it - is a long-term strategic mistake and has harmed Britain’s reputation. But that argument has been lost, for now. So I hope that we can now avoid a disorderly withdrawal.

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Danny565 said:
    That worked so well for May every time she tried it.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited October 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Remainers graciously accepting defeat and trying to see the positives, I see

    "I wasn't trying anyway" up next

    I don’t see a deal as a defeat. We had a deal a year ago. Which was trashed by many of those now in government, for reasons which had more to do with their own egos and personal ambitions than anything particularly wrong with the deal itself.

    But I’d like to know two things:-

    1. What are the terms of this deal
    2. What does it offer Britain that we didn’t have in November 2018 or, indeed, December 2017?

    Or do you somehow think that asking these questions is illegitimate?

    Ask what questions you like, it all seems like what it has always been; wordy lawyers attempting to disguise their sorrow at not getting their own way by playing the concerned neutral
    Sorry to see you being so ungracious. Seems like what it has always been: Brexiteers unwilling to tell us what the advantages of this deal are to disguise the fact that a deal has been on offer for the last year.

    I have consistently wanted a deal. And consistently wanted to avoid a disorderly withdrawal.

    If this deal avoids the latter it will be a relief. I remain of the view that leaving the EU - and particularly in the way we have gone about it - is a long-term strategic mistake and has harmed Britain’s reputation. But that argument has been lost, for now. So I hope that we can now avoid a disorderly withdrawal.

    Peston has the briefing doc from No10 saying what they think they have achieved with this deal over Mays.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184770684293124098?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1184770684293124098&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/17/eu-leaders-gather-for-summit-as-boris-johnson-scrambles-to-get-backing-for-brexit-deal-politics-live

    Click on the image and then the right arrow moves through the doc,
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    Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73

    Juncker: "It is high time to complete the withdrawal process and move on...."

    If the EU close the door on a long extension any referendum is not possible
    They just need to close the door on any extension, so that the vote in Westminster is Boris's Deal or No Deal.

    That is the missing piece of the jigsaw. And it should be a no-brainer for the EU.
    That may well happen. Parliament then

    * VONCs,
    * finds a way of installing a new government,
    * begs for an extension pending a referendum or GE or both,
    * and if no extension is granted then a "technical interim" is agreed amounting to de jure out and de facto in for a month.

    (This is OK for those who've bet on Brexit before 31 Dec.)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114

    For all the arguments Boris has agreed a deal to exit the EU on the 31st October

    Pretty irrelevant if it doesn’t pass the Commons. We already had a deal remember and that didn’t pass either.
    We have not yet heard from the EU on whether there will be any extensions.

    I'm saying no.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Is that even English?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:
    Or more that targetting public transport is incredibly fucki g stupid for a movement that would like us all to use public transport.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,921

    isam said:

    isam said:
    Its entirely possible. Of course the political problem for Johnson is then that all the people gaslit to believe that a surrender deal isn't proper Brexit will then all trot off to vote for Farage so that Brexit can finally happen.
    Wont happen
    Listen to talk radio. Endless angry people insisting no deal is the only form of Brexit. In an election where the BXP offer no deal and the Tories offer BRINO they aren't voting Tory are they
    Yeah they only let extremists on, else they wont sell advertising space.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,921
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Remainers graciously accepting defeat and trying to see the positives, I see

    "I wasn't trying anyway" up next

    I don’t see a deal as a defeat. We had a deal a year ago. Which was trashed by many of those now in government, for reasons which had more to do with their own egos and personal ambitions than anything particularly wrong with the deal itself.

    But I’d like to know two things:-

    1. What are the terms of this deal
    2. What does it offer Britain that we didn’t have in November 2018 or, indeed, December 2017?

    Or do you somehow think that asking these questions is illegitimate?

    Ask what questions you like, it all seems like what it has always been; wordy lawyers attempting to disguise their sorrow at not getting their own way by playing the concerned neutral
    Sorry to see you being so ungracious. Seems like what it has always been: Brexiteers unwilling to tell us what the advantages of this deal are to disguise the fact that a deal has been on offer for the last year.

    I have consistently wanted a deal. And consistently wanted to avoid a disorderly withdrawal.

    If this deal avoids the latter it will be a relief. I remain of the view that leaving the EU - and particularly in the way we have gone about it - is a long-term strategic mistake and has harmed Britain’s reputation. But that argument has been lost, for now. So I hope that we can now avoid a disorderly withdrawal.

    Sorry I'm just pretending to be off to work to avoid the question only to come back 2 mins or so later
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    Yep their statement still stands this morning... But it's Saturday morning that counts! :D
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    There’s zip chance you’ll get more than 10 Labour MPs supporting this .

    If the DUP don’t support this and if you add that to around 5 Tory rebels then the deal isn’t going to pass .
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    So on Saturday parliament get to vote on the deal. They also get to add amendments to the deal / bill passing the deal. One of those is definitely going to be a confirmatory referendum (although it may not pass). Anything else to expect attached to it?

    Also, are we not concerned at the scale of this not getting parliamentary scrutiny? Select committees and such will not have had a chance to read this thing, question ministers on the impacts, etc.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,971

    Scott_P said:
    Would love that. Brexit infighting would be glorious.
    I stated that a few days ago - Boris with a deal has to fight any election or referendum with that deal and the BXP have a reason to stand.

    I suspect if pushed into a referendum he may prefer that to an election where a few BXP votes here and there will probably cost him any chance of a majority.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    BBC thinks Boris will cancel the Saturday sitting unless the DUP get on board quickly.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:
    Bingo. This surely cannot be the Cummings master plan.

    This gives Farage the space he needs.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2019

    Will the election be about getting Brexit done or will it be about the deal that Johnson has signed up to? If it is the latter, it couild get difficult for him given all the protections being remove from the PD.

    People in general dont focus on the detail....it will be get brexit done vs labours lets renegotiate yet again, then this and that and then referendum which they will campaign against and the illberal democrat policy of ignore the vote.
    That’s not the Lib Dem policy so showing your ignorance there.
    Yes it is....If we have a GE and they win, they will say bollock to Brexit.

    "The Liberal Democrats have pledged to cancel Brexit if they come to power at the next general election."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49706643
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,604
    Scott_P said:
    So Bozo is secretly OK with a Second Referendum?

    Cos that's the only way I can see this getting approved by Parliament.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,977
    Scott_P said:
    And Barnier's believed him???????????
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Would love that. Brexit infighting would be glorious.
    I stated that a few days ago - Boris with a deal has to fight any election or referendum with that deal and the BXP have a reason to stand.

    I suspect if pushed into a referendum he may prefer that to an election where a few BXP votes here and there will probably cost him any chance of a majority.
    Farage was on sky earlier and said there will be a full slate of TBP candidates if ‘this awful deal goes through’
    Encouragingly he also said if it went to a referendum deal v remain he would stay at home.
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    Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    Henry_C said:

    Juncker: "It is high time to complete the withdrawal process and move on...."

    If the EU close the door on a long extension any referendum is not possible
    They just need to close the door on any extension, so that the vote in Westminster is Boris's Deal or No Deal.

    That is the missing piece of the jigsaw. And it should be a no-brainer for the EU.
    That may well happen. Parliament then

    * VONCs,
    * finds a way of installing a new government,
    * begs for an extension pending a referendum or GE or both,
    * and if no extension is granted then a "technical interim" is agreed amounting to de jure out and de facto in for a month.

    (This is OK for those who've bet on Brexit before 31 Dec.)
    It's not OK for those who've bet on it happening by 31 Oct, because bets are settled according to the de facto position.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Would love that. Brexit infighting would be glorious.
    I stated that a few days ago - Boris with a deal has to fight any election or referendum with that deal and the BXP have a reason to stand.

    I suspect if pushed into a referendum he may prefer that to an election where a few BXP votes here and there will probably cost him any chance of a majority.
    Farage was on sky earlier and said there will be a full slate of TBP candidates if ‘this awful deal goes through’
    Encouragingly he also said if it went to a referendum deal v remain he would stay at home.
    If the deal goes through the BXP will get under 10% in an election, probably under 5%
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    isam said:

    Remainers graciously accepting defeat and trying to see the positives, I see

    "I wasn't trying anyway" up next

    I am not graciously accepting defeat. I never wanted any part of this oncoming screw-up. The only positive is that it should not stuff the economy as thoroughly as as No Deal, but Leavers do not seem to give a d*mn about the economy anyway.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Yep their statement still stands this morning... But it's Saturday morning that counts! :D
    Having considered the pros and cons the DUP could pivot to Remain.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Brexit party position after deal passes 'we dont want a trade deal, we want higher prices and more bust businesse'
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    isamisam Posts: 40,921

    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Would love that. Brexit infighting would be glorious.
    I stated that a few days ago - Boris with a deal has to fight any election or referendum with that deal and the BXP have a reason to stand.

    I suspect if pushed into a referendum he may prefer that to an election where a few BXP votes here and there will probably cost him any chance of a majority.
    Farage was on sky earlier and said there will be a full slate of TBP candidates if ‘this awful deal goes through’
    Encouragingly he also said if it went to a referendum deal v remain he would stay at home.
    If the deal goes through the BXP will get under 10% in an election, probably under 5%
    I'd say so.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    Scott_P said:
    The Brexit vote will break very strongly for Con as most Leavers understand Farage, with no MPs, can't deliver Brexit and only Boris can.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114

    Scott_P said:
    So Bozo is secretly OK with a Second Referendum?

    Cos that's the only way I can see this getting approved by Parliament.
    Or no further extensions. That kills No Deal stone dead.
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    Scott_P said:
    What is Boris resigns before sending letter and says I got the EU to move and still not good enough for parliament, therefore that is it we can't keep going around in circles, so it is to be we are out i.e no-deal.

    No saying it will happen or support it, just thinking out loud.
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    Brexit party position after deal passes 'we dont want a trade deal, we want higher prices and more bust businesse'

    Project Fear.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Brexit vote will break very strongly for Con as most Leavers understand Farage, with no MPs, can't deliver Brexit and only Boris can.
    They will embrace the politics of opposition and go for purity over power.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,162

    Scott_P said:
    And Barnier's believed him???????????
    Looks like Barnier is playing Johnson, rather than vice versa. Johnson now can't blame the EU for intransigence. Johnson can blame the DUP and/or Parliament but the EU are off the hook.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    Everyone thought it was a crude spoof, until they realised it wasn't.

    He truly is a moron for the ages.

    Trouble is, he's also very much the moron's moron - and that is a sizeable constituency.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Bingo. This surely cannot be the Cummings master plan.

    This gives Farage the space he needs.
    100% that is not the plan
This discussion has been closed.