Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.
Not sure that's right, Carlotta. Revoking would always be an option, so if Parliament rejected Boris's Deal, it would be a straight choice - No Deal or Revoke.
I suspect that the Labour Leavers might finally intervene and vote for any Deal over Revoke or No Deal.
Corbyn would hope that he could get away with not removing the whip from them.
Doesn't need Corbyn. They'd be desleected by their CLPs like a shot - the centrists would dislike them facilitating Leave, and the leftists would dislike them for undermining the leadership.
I'm not sure how much of a difference there will be in practice by the time we get to the end of the transitional period but I certainly agree that those who voted against May's deal should continue to be held in deep contempt.
The backstop was not in the EU's interest as it effectively gave us single maket access for next to nothing. It would have been in the EU's interest to bring it to an end with an agreed FTA as soon as possible. Now they seem to have carved off a chunk of the UK. I don't see how any Unionist can support this deal.
The first point is the most important. The UK wide backstop meant that the EU could not seek to charge us for market access because we could get it for free. That's why I think it was useful. But we are where we are and where we are is in need of a deal and a transitional period.
Maybe I'm being stupid, I didn't get much sleep last night, but where am I going wrong?:
If the difference between this deal and May's deal is May's deal had a UK-wide backstop, whereas this one effectively leaves just NI in Customs Union+, why on earth would the DUP have any reason to support this deal and not May's deal? Isn't it just worse from their point of view?
Mind you, I never really understood why the DUP are pro-Brexit - what the hell kind of Brexit would they actually support? Have they ever proposed any kind?
Your logic is absolutely impeccable apart from one mistake: you're assuming that the DUP's position is rational.
The DUP have a rather unique ability to always get less at the end of a negotiation than they had at the beginning.
Bingo. This surely cannot be the Cummings master plan.
This gives Farage the space he needs.
Cummings is already on plan B (with C getting it’s coat on and looking like it’s going to be ready to leave any second now). The goal was always leave (somehow) and thereby stuff the Brexit party back in its box or else credibly blame Parliament for not being able to leave & therefore win the subsequent GE before Brexiting at leisure.
Plan A (getting a deal that will get through Parliament by threatening the EU with No-Deal) didn’t work, both because the EU decided that it could take No-Deal on the chin & because Parliament decided to take active measures to prevent it. So we’re onto Plan B - blame Parliament & win the GE.
They might do it to - but we all know what can happen to polling leads in the white heat of a GE campaign so place your bets accordingly
Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder
Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.
This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.
This is interesting. I wonder if the Benn act will now be redundant.
If MPs vote for a deal tomorrow or Saturday, it’s redundant. Otherwise not.
Looks like Boris is actively making it redundant by persuading the EU leaders to rule out an extension. Let us see what is in the final communique
I don't think the EU leaders will make a watertight 'take it or leave it' commitment. There might be some warm words commending it to the house and implicit threats that this is as good as it gets. But I reckon they'd leave the door open for a gamble on another six months in the hope of the existing or new HOC forcing a new referendum.
If Boris doesn't get and keep control of the narrative and is forced to defend a deal in an election or referendum against charges of "BINO" from Farage and "Singapore on Thames" from Corbyn, he risks turning into May Mark 2.. buffeted from every side. So he's surely banking on getting it through quite painlessly, or he'd have been better off failing to get a deal and fighting his "people v parliament" election.
As to the Commons maths... I think most ERG will fall into line, but I bet there'll be one or two hold-outs. I wouldn't be surprised if rebels who've announced they're retiring (or have already more or less been kicked out locally) keep rebelling, though others will vote in favour if it gets them back in.
With Labour whipping against and the DUP not in favour, I still think any confidence in a majority is misplaced.
(But frankly anything could happen )
buffeted from every side.
Not is the way May was. He has removed the whip, appears to be resisting buffeting from DUP. He may not have enough votes, but will appear stronger than May
The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.
While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.
Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.
I'm not sure how much of a difference there will be in practice by the time we get to the end of the transitional period but I certainly agree that those who voted against May's deal should continue to be held in deep contempt.
The backstop was not in the EU's interest as it effectively gave us single maket access for next to nothing. It would have been in the EU's interest to bring it to an end with an agreed FTA as soon as possible. Now they seem to have carved off a chunk of the UK. I don't see how any Unionist can support this deal.
I've found the DUP to be a uniting force for both leavers and remainers alike actually.
1. Johnson can't seriously be trying to bounce the DUP. These are people who said (and I quote) "This is a battle of who blinks first, and we've cut off our eyelids". 2. I'm in no way convinced the deal will pass without the DUP. It's an awfully long way from a 'sure thing'. Just ask May. 3. It's quite possible that an extension will be requested and granted. Johnson has done his level best to absolve the Tories of blame. 4. Therefore (and yes, this is a bit of a leap) this is about positioning for a GE where Johnson expects to get a proper majority and can vote the deal through with little fuss. The new batch of MPs will be ideologically purer, and the newbies will be malleable. 5. He can afford to lose support to BXP running on a no deal ticket because (a) the BXP vote is inefficient, (b) the opposition is fractured and shows no signs of consolidating around a single party, at least while Corbyn stays as leader, and (c) the BXP will draw support from Labour as well as the Tories.
Right now, I think he's going to get away with it. Sadly.
either way he wins, if they vote deal down , then its election and he will walk it
Agree with you there, Malc. It's clever positioning = "Win - Win". Lab and LibDems walked into a political cul-de-sac. Everyone wants this over with. Who the hell really wants another referendum or to unpick the whole thing and revoke when we've got this far? Alright there's a few, but they're in lost deposit territory.
The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.
While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.
Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.
I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.
Generally I'm a perfectionist who finds it hard to let go of the perfect in favour of the good. It's going to take me a while to reconcile myself to letting go of the imperfect in favour of accepting the even-less-perfect.
I see the Democrat who raised most money in Q3 ($49 million) was... Tom Steyer. Who? I'd never heard of him, and it seems to be largely self-funded, but he's apparently qualified for the November debate:
The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.
While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.
Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.
I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.
This deal isn't going to pass - the numbers aren't there.
It can however pass if Boris accepts a referendum and I suspect he might.
I think its too early to say the numbers aren't there. We have the 21, many but not all of whom wanted a deal, we have Stephen Kinnock's Labour faction that wants a deal, we have the DUP probably opposing, we have more odds and sods in this dysfunctional Parliament than we have had in my lifetime. I really don't know how to call it.
Its really not too early. An additional 30-40 votes are needed depending how many recant from last time. Not many more than that are even amenable so you need nearly all of them.
I see the Democrat who raised most money in Q3 ($49 million) was... Tom Steyer. Who? I'd never heard of him, and it seems to be largely self-funded, but he's apparently qualified for the November debate:
Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.
It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.
They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.
Its entirely possible. Of course the political problem for Johnson is then that all the people gaslit to believe that a surrender deal isn't proper Brexit will then all trot off to vote for Farage so that Brexit can finally happen.
They won't, as the Boris Deal removes the backstop for GB just leaves it for NI only with control for the Assembly etc
That’s detail. People don’t tend to read detail. Your leader is a prime example.
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Plan A (getting a deal that will get through Parliament by threatening the EU with No-Deal) didn’t work, both because the EU decided that it could take No-Deal on the chin & because Parliament decided to take active measures to prevent it. So we’re onto Plan B - blame Parliament & win the GE.
They might do it to - but we all know what can happen to polling leads in the white heat of a GE campaign so place your bets accordingly
Not is the way May was. He has removed the whip, appears to be resisting buffeting from DUP. He may not have enough votes, but will appear stronger than May
Boris blinked, will enrage BXP, to no purpose.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Steyer
Boris blinked, will enrage BXP, to no purpose. That would be a game changer if true. It's also the only chance any deal has of passing sans referendum.