Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg g

2456

Comments

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Cyclefree said:

    So a deal has been done, apparently.

    How exciting!

    But remember a deal was done once before but - unaccountably - did not get through Parliament.

    So it’s not done until that happens.

    So best keep that prosecco (disgusting stuff BTW) on ice for now.

    Agreed. It does feel like this deal will do a lot better than May's. Boris has seemingly taken the time to get the DUP and Spartans on side and also thrown a few bones regarding the environment and workers rights to the Labour rebels. The EU seem to like it too, but things can unravel quickly.

    Fingers crossed though, this deal passing IMO is the best scenario for Britain and mending any post 2016 wounds.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I don't think we yet have the numbers for a referendum. I think there are probably still enough Labour Leavers who will vote against and, if Johnson moves towards one he will meet Theresa May's fate faster than you can say "shortest serving PM" and he knows it.

    We go to a GE. The question then is whether Johnson repudiates his deal to secure his Brexit flank. I think he will - though @Brom might be right and this could just be some last minute theatre to bounce everyone into passing the deal.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    nico67 said:

    Apparently Johnson told EU leaders the deal can get ratified in the Commons in just six days !

    If there's a will there's a way.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    eek said:

    For anyone who has worked on intercompany relationships at any time.

    The quick fixes have a habit of breaking

    https://twitter.com/erincandescent/status/1184587323599736837

    Ooh, that’s one to cut and and paste for a strategy meeting I have next week!
    Many thanks! :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    :lol: All pol journos are on their way to Brussels today, when the action is now back in Westminister!
  • Boris.

    We've got a great new Brexit deal
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    time to wind up labour supporters ....... if the deal gets through without a referendum, the Tories will poll 45% in an opinion poll before end November ;)

    And a 25% gap over both Labour and the LibDems.....
    Heading for 500 seats :smiley:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    More shrewd bets



  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    No doubt the DUP's Group4 wagon is now leaving Downing Street, bulging at the seams after an all night run of the £50 note printing press.....

    Well played them if so.
  • Boris.

    We've got a great new Brexit deal

    "new"
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    Has anyone checked with the DUP yet?
  • Junckers recommends acceptance to the EU
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    There will be huge pressure to now pass this deal...

    Boris calls for election the day after...seen as a hero to Brexiteers and high momentum...

    Hes's a lucky general if this works out
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    How much gold are we stuffing in their mouths? More than £350 million a week?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2019
    Lizard people / OWG will do anything to distract from the triumph of KLOBUCHAR
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    No doubt the DUP's Group4 wagon is now leaving Downing Street, bulging at the seams after an all night run of the £50 note printing press.....

    Well played them if so.

    The press were reporting yesterday they were mining three sources, London, Dublin and Brussels.
  • DUP not on board. *giggles*
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    How much gold are we stuffing in their mouths? More than £350 million a week?
    "Every Silver Lining" could be the new remain slogan!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Gate, Labour are to whip for a second referendum.

    Does that have the numbers to pass, I wonder?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    FFS.....come on!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So a deal has been done, apparently.

    How exciting!

    But remember a deal was done once before but - unaccountably - did not get through Parliament.

    So it’s not done until that happens.

    So best keep that prosecco (disgusting stuff BTW) on ice for now.

    Agreed. It does feel like this deal will do a lot better than May's. Boris has seemingly taken the time to get the DUP and Spartans on side and also thrown a few bones regarding the environment and workers rights to the Labour rebels. The EU seem to like it too, but things can unravel quickly.

    Fingers crossed though, this deal passing IMO is the best scenario for Britain and mending any post 2016 wounds.
    It may do a lot better than May’s but is it actually any better than May’s deal? What does it give Britain that May’s deal didn’t?

    Or is it in fact substantively worse than May’s deal?

    Perhaps at some point we will actually be told what the deal is.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Cyclefree said:

    How much gold are we stuffing in their mouths? More than £350 million a week?
    To be fair, if you asked most people who are critical of Brexit whether deprived areas of the UK should receive more investment, especially to mitigate the costs of Brexit, I expect they would say yes.
    It's just when you mention that it's Northern Ireland and the DUP are negotiating it, they suddenly start huffing and puffing.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    Danny565 said:

    Xtrain said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.

    I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?

    The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.
    Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.
    The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).
    If that happens he'll resign.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. Gate, Labour are to whip for a second referendum.

    Does that have the numbers to pass, I wonder?

    Plans may change in light of this morning's news/speculation.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    DUP not on board. *giggles*

    Associating people with death threats to children and female MPs *bants*
  • Nothing changed with DUP
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Juncker: "It is high time to complete the withdrawal process and move on...."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    I don't think we yet have the numbers for a referendum. I think there are probably still enough Labour Leavers who will vote against and, if Johnson moves towards one he will meet Theresa May's fate faster than you can say "shortest serving PM" and he knows it.

    We go to a GE. The question then is whether Johnson repudiates his deal to secure his Brexit flank. I think he will - though @Brom might be right and this could just be some last minute theatre to bounce everyone into passing the deal.

    Indeed, only 280 MPs voted for EUref2 in the indicative votes
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. Gate, Labour are to whip for a second referendum.

    Does that have the numbers to pass, I wonder?

    I think the number of Labour rebels against a referendum might fall quite dramatically (especially since they might see a referendum as an alternative to an election, in which they might lose their seats).

    But I don't know whether there'll be enough votes from the 21 ex-Tories to get it through.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .
  • I see londoners have taken direct action against the eco-fascists blocking the tube. Blocking the tube not a very smart of getting people on board your cause and besides surely they want people using public transport rather than cars?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pound is going wild at the news
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    tightrope walking with no safety net...

    Bloody hell.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707

    Has anyone checked with the DUP yet?

    Turns out, not so much.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Xtrain said:

    Danny565 said:

    Xtrain said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.

    I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?

    The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.
    Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.
    The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).
    If that happens he'll resign.
    Possibly, but I doubt it.

    If he has to choose between complying with a law he hates, or resigning as PM, I think he'll usually choose the former. As we may find out in a couple of days.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    I understand more pressing things are occurring here, but did people see this:

    https://twitter.com/mattshuham/status/1184568607952510977
  • Juncker: "It is high time to complete the withdrawal process and move on...."

    If the EU close the door on a long extension any referendum is not possible
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Freggles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How much gold are we stuffing in their mouths? More than £350 million a week?
    To be fair, if you asked most people who are critical of Brexit whether deprived areas of the UK should receive more investment, especially to mitigate the costs of Brexit, I expect they would say yes.
    It's just when you mention that it's Northern Ireland and the DUP are negotiating it, they suddenly start huffing and puffing.
    Do you think that’s why Leave voters on the mainland voted for Brexit? To give more money to NI, a province which voted to remain? Or did they want some of the money to be spent on them?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Danny565 said:

    Brom said:

    Danny565 said:

    Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.

    I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?

    2nd ref died when the Libs moved to revoke. Certainly expect the People's Vote campaign to wind down after this weekend.
    That's the LibDems' policy if they win a majority at the next election.

    This side of a general election, they say they'll still vote for a referendum any opportunity they're given.
    Well there is not the numbers for it and there would need to be a GE with substantial Lib Dem gains before a referendum becomes likely. Without a GE it just won't happen.
    Pretty close, when I just totted them up.
    If Lab whip for it, they’ve got 244. Assume some hardcore Leavers like Hoey break the whip; say up to 240 for referendum there.
    Add 20 from LDs and Stephen Lloyd. That’s 260.
    Add the SNP if they go for it. That’s 295.
    The Whipless Tories should go for it; most supported it in the IVs. We’re somewhere between 310-315 now. Add Plaid Cymru and the Green - 315-320.

    Which means Boris needs all his remaining Tories with no further rebels, the DUP, some Labour rebels, almost all the Independents (Most of whom are ex-Labour) and the Independent Group for Change.

    Actually, it could really be on. I hadn’t thought it could be until doing the totting up in response to your post.
    Lab won't get 240, the Kinnock mob won't 100% support a deal but they have already ruled out a referendum so that would be some U-Turn. Half the whipless Tories will support it but all of them? I'm not sure. I think if it gets over 300 it has done well (could be wrong of course!).
    Flint, Nandy, Kinnock etc will not vote for EUref2 as that means handing their seats to the Brexit Party or the Tories.

    The likes of Skinner and Mann and Stringer are also ideologically opposed to EUref2 and will vote against.

    Only Grieve, Greening and Bebb and maybe Rudd of the whipless Tories would vote for EUref2 too
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If Johnson has the DUP votes there will be few ERG holdouts and he should have the numbers. The majority might even make it into double figures if he doesn't lose many of the Anti-No-Deal rebels who voted for May's Deal.
  • nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    Everything is crazy is it not
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. 565, abstentions could matter too.

    Hmm.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    How does it hurt Boris's plan - it's likely he will be blocked but can blame Parliament and push for the deal as part of a referendum.

    And I think pushing for it via a referendum is actually less painful for Boris than pushing for an election with us still inside.
  • So, it's right wing British unionism v right wing English nationalism. Who will blink?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    Following the May playbook then. Isn’t that what May did in December 2017?
  • What Johnson cannot now do is blame No Deal on the EU.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    Juncker: "It is high time to complete the withdrawal process and move on...."

    If the EU close the door on a long extension any referendum is not possible
    They just need to close the door on any extension, so that the vote in Westminster is Boris's Deal or No Deal.

    That is the missing piece of the jigsaw. And it should be a no-brainer for the EU.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    It will be rather amusing if the first thing that Boris can get through the House is Brexit!

    lolololol!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900

    Nothing changed with DUP

    Clearly, Johnson is taking the line that the desire to get the A50 question resolved is so great that those daring to vote down this Deal will be effectively signing their own political suicide note.

    Perhaps but we've gone from "No deal is better than a bad deal" to "Any deal will do".

    We're also still in the dark as to the content of the new WA. Is it radically different from the WA already rejected three times by the Commons and if so, how? If, as I suspect, Johnson has made more concessions to the EU, how can the ERG and DUP, who claimed the original WA would make us "a vassal State of the EU" suddenly think this is such a good deal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019

    What Johnson cannot now do is blame No Deal on the EU.

    He can blame it on Labour, the LDs, the SNP and the DUP instead
  • Forget the Commons for a moment. Can a UK government of English Nationalists simply impose a constitutional settlement on NI when the NI representatives are opposed to it?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Juncker: "It is high time to complete the withdrawal process and move on...."

    If the EU close the door on a long extension any referendum is not possible
    They just need to close the door on any extension, so that the vote in Westminster is Boris's Deal or No Deal.

    That is the missing piece of the jigsaw. And it should be a no-brainer for the EU.
    Yes, if they play it that way it will force it through
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    If Johnson has the DUP votes there will be few ERG holdouts and he should have the numbers. The majority might even make it into double figures if he doesn't lose many of the Anti-No-Deal rebels who voted for May's Deal.

    If there is no extension, he doesn't need the DUP.....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Forget the Commons for a moment. Can a UK government of English Nationalists simply impose a constitutional settlement on NI when the NI representatives are opposed to it?

    Yes
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    What Johnson cannot now do is blame No Deal on the EU.

    He can blame it on parliament instead. Cummings may well have something up his sleeve if parliament votes down another deal, and Its possible the EU wont be bothered to stop it happening given their patience must be wearing thin with Britain.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Remainers graciously accepting defeat and trying to see the positives, I see

    "I wasn't trying anyway" up next
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Good to know Boris Johnson has sorted out the UK's will.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The DUP can’t afford a no deal and can’t currently vote for this deal .

    Not sure what’s going to happen now !
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Forget the Commons for a moment. Can a UK government of English Nationalists simply impose a constitutional settlement on NI when the NI representatives are opposed to it?

    The issue is that we don't know if all the NI representatives are opposed to it as we don't know Sinn Fein's position.

    And that could well depend on how much money is thrown in NI's direction - as one issue that needs to be fixed is how poor NI is compared to the rest of Ireland (and large parts of the UK as well).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    "Fair and balanced" - that is top trolling
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Will be very interesting to see if the DUP vote for it or not
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    stodge said:

    Nothing changed with DUP

    Clearly, Johnson is taking the line that the desire to get the A50 question resolved is so great that those daring to vote down this Deal will be effectively signing their own political suicide note.

    Perhaps but we've gone from "No deal is better than a bad deal" to "Any deal will do".

    We're also still in the dark as to the content of the new WA. Is it radically different from the WA already rejected three times by the Commons and if so, how? If, as I suspect, Johnson has made more concessions to the EU, how can the ERG and DUP, who claimed the original WA would make us "a vassal State of the EU" suddenly think this is such a good deal?
    AIUI the DUP don't.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:
    Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.

    Is that ready yet?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:
    That seems incredibly strange logic to me. If it's "this deal or No Deal", why would the ERG support the deal over their preferred outcome? They're surely only willing to support this deal because they believe Delay/Remain is the alterative.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Brom said:

    eek said:

    Danny565 said:

    Xtrain said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.

    I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?

    The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.
    Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.
    The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).
    The key is the EU. I very much doubt they will allow an extension for months for a referendum, more likely to allow for a GE
    Why would the EU risk a general election that may not actually resolve anything.

    A referendum at least puts an end to this unless we have an exact 50/50 split.
    Puts an end to it how? the last one clearly didn't. If there is a deal on the table EU will expect us to vote it through this time. There is no benefit on their side for either a GE or 2nd Ref. That time has passed.
    This time it could be a referendum with all the conditions known, no outside interference, following the rules and known in advance to be binding, not just advisory.

    I would vote differently in such a referendum.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Dadge said:
    Almost at crossover. I must say I'm surprised if they think they have the numbers if the DUP didn't vote for it...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.

    Is that ready yet?
    If the EU lets it be known there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances, then the Benn Act is tomorrow's chip paper....
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Don't see how this gets through without the DUP.

    Don't see how #ref 2 gets through without CON. So Extend and Election?

    Boris: Deal
    BPE: No Deal
    Labour: Ref #2
    LD: Revoke
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    PClipp said:

    Brom said:

    eek said:

    Danny565 said:

    Xtrain said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Seems to me that Boris being forced to hold a second referendum is becoming more and more likely.

    I know the conventional wisdom has been that, practically, you can't force a government to hold one if they don't want to. But - given what's happened with the Benn Bill - if MPs legislate for a referendum, and place legal requirements on the government to organise for one, can the government really do anything to stop it, no matter how much huffing and puffing they'll do?

    The question is to what extent we are in a de facto coalition with parliament making consensual decisions that the government must implement.
    Boris won't offer a 2nd referendum under any circumstances. The Conservatives would be decimated by the Brexit party at the next election. He would however like to fight an election opposing one.
    The scenario I'm talking about wouldn't be that Boris has "offered" a second referendum. It would be that Parliament imposes a law on him that there must be a referendum (and continued to refuse any requests for an election).
    The key is the EU. I very much doubt they will allow an extension for months for a referendum, more likely to allow for a GE
    Why would the EU risk a general election that may not actually resolve anything.

    A referendum at least puts an end to this unless we have an exact 50/50 split.
    Puts an end to it how? the last one clearly didn't. If there is a deal on the table EU will expect us to vote it through this time. There is no benefit on their side for either a GE or 2nd Ref. That time has passed.
    This time it could be a referendum with all the conditions known, no outside interference, following the rules and known in advance to be binding, not just advisory.

    I would vote differently in such a referendum.
    That wouldn't change anything, the losing side would never accept the result because of the precedent that was set last time. A deal is the only realistic way to settle things.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:
    You can support XR and dislike one of their actions. Also Sadiq Khan does not support XR and has consistently said that he condemns all law breaking.
  • What Johnson cannot now do is blame No Deal on the EU.

    He can blame it on parliament though.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    How does it hurt Boris's plan - it's likely he will be blocked but can blame Parliament and push for the deal as part of a referendum.

    And I think pushing for it via a referendum is actually less painful for Boris than pushing for an election with us still inside.
    Yes but you don't vote Tory.
    I always have and 2nd ref means I'm off to Brexit party.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited October 2019
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That seems incredibly strange logic to me. If it's "this deal or No Deal", why would the ERG support the deal over their preferred outcome? They're surely only willing to support this deal because they believe Delay/Remain is the alterative.
    The ERG is not and never was a bloc vote or had a consensus outcome, and what passes for its intellectual heft, viz Jacob Rees-Mogg, has sold his soul for a seat at Cabinet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That seems incredibly strange logic to me. If it's "this deal or No Deal", why would the ERG support the deal over their preferred outcome? They're surely only willing to support this deal because they believe Delay/Remain is the alterative.
    As the Deal removes the backstop for GB which was the main objection to the May Deal for most of the ERG if not the DUP
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    isam said:

    Remainers graciously accepting defeat and trying to see the positives, I see

    "I wasn't trying anyway" up next

    I don’t see a deal as a defeat. We had a deal a year ago. Which was trashed by many of those now in government, for reasons which had more to do with their own egos and personal ambitions than anything particularly wrong with the deal itself.

    But I’d like to know two things:-

    1. What are the terms of this deal
    2. What does it offer Britain that we didn’t have in November 2018 or, indeed, December 2017?

    Or do you somehow think that asking these questions is illegitimate?

  • Forget the Commons for a moment. Can a UK government of English Nationalists simply impose a constitutional settlement on NI when the NI representatives are opposed to it?

    Yes
    With reference to the Troubles and GFA? Imposing something a country doesn't want usually is a Bad Idea. Doubly so when its NI.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    What Johnson cannot now do is blame No Deal on the EU.

    He can blame it on parliament though.
    How can he? Parliament would never vote for no deal.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Xtrain said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    How does it hurt Boris's plan - it's likely he will be blocked but can blame Parliament and push for the deal as part of a referendum.

    And I think pushing for it via a referendum is actually less painful for Boris than pushing for an election with us still inside.
    Yes but you don't vote Tory.
    I always have and 2nd ref means I'm off to Brexit party.
    What if Boris then wins it?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Xtrain said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    How does it hurt Boris's plan - it's likely he will be blocked but can blame Parliament and push for the deal as part of a referendum.

    And I think pushing for it via a referendum is actually less painful for Boris than pushing for an election with us still inside.
    Yes but you don't vote Tory.
    I always have and 2nd ref means I'm off to Brexit party.
    Says a lot about you really.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    I think the priority for Johnson is positioning for the GE in 2020. All else is way down the list. And I think he's sitting pretty so long as he brings back a Deal that his own MPs vote for. If it passes bingo - he's the man who delivered Brexit. Wins GE on the back of that. If it fails also bingo - he can pin the blame on other parties. Wins GE on a "let's get it done FFS" ticket.

    He's playing a blinder. Unfortunately.
  • isam said:
    Its entirely possible. Of course the political problem for Johnson is then that all the people gaslit to believe that a surrender deal isn't proper Brexit will then all trot off to vote for Farage so that Brexit can finally happen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019

    What Johnson cannot now do is blame No Deal on the EU.

    He can blame it on parliament though.
    How can he? Parliament would never vote for no deal.
    If he presents a deal, they vote it down...and we know from the polling people want this resolved.

    The public have seen HoC decide time and time again they are against every option. It is clear this is being set up as one final chance to vote for something.

    I am not saying i agree with all of this, rather what the spin will be.
  • Barnier live on Sky
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That seems incredibly strange logic to me. If it's "this deal or No Deal", why would the ERG support the deal over their preferred outcome? They're surely only willing to support this deal because they believe Delay/Remain is the alterative.

    Ha!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    With level playing field remaining I wonder if he thinks the MPs for a deal will support and counter the DUP?
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    Xtrain said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    How does it hurt Boris's plan - it's likely he will be blocked but can blame Parliament and push for the deal as part of a referendum.

    And I think pushing for it via a referendum is actually less painful for Boris than pushing for an election with us still inside.
    Yes but you don't vote Tory.
    I always have and 2nd ref means I'm off to Brexit party.
    What if Boris then wins it?
    Then he wins it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Xtrain said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    I’d be shocked if Johnson agreed this deal without getting the DUP on board .

    But apparently not , this is crazy .

    How does it hurt Boris's plan - it's likely he will be blocked but can blame Parliament and push for the deal as part of a referendum.

    And I think pushing for it via a referendum is actually less painful for Boris than pushing for an election with us still inside.
    Yes but you don't vote Tory.
    I always have and 2nd ref means I'm off to Brexit party.
    Um, you don't know how I vote - it was Tory until May made a pigs ear of selling her deal - and Boris's deal will be worse once you start looking at it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    kinabalu said:

    I think the priority for Johnson is positioning for the GE in 2020. All else is way down the list. And I think he's sitting pretty so long as he brings back a Deal that his own MPs vote for. If it passes bingo - he's the man who delivered Brexit. Wins GE on the back of that. If it fails also bingo - he can pin the blame on other parties. Wins GE on a "let's get it done FFS" ticket.

    He's playing a blinder. Unfortunately.

    Agree. The only way it goes wrong is if the other parties make a GNU and deliver brexit, but that's harder to do if Con are pushing a deal as well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019

    isam said:
    Its entirely possible. Of course the political problem for Johnson is then that all the people gaslit to believe that a surrender deal isn't proper Brexit will then all trot off to vote for Farage so that Brexit can finally happen.
    They won't, as the Boris Deal removes the backstop for GB just leaves it for NI only with control for the Assembly etc
This discussion has been closed.