politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the out

malcolmg said:

Burgessian said:

Carnyx said:

Burgessian said:

malcolmg said:

JonCisBack said:

So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

FFS what a joke

YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.

Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.

Not at all. It's like the difference between quarrying Arthur's Seat [big hill in central Edinburgh, though I'm pretty sure you know it, and yes they tried to do it] and quarrying somewhere out in the Lothian countryside. Doesn't bear on the pros and cons of quarrying in general.

Not really following that analogy. The problem, surely, is whether burnishing green credentials is worth throwing a hugely important business sector under the bus. May not play well in NE which is already unimpressed by the possibility of a sell-out of the fishermen to the EU (in the event of IndyRef).

Fracking is a crap business, it should be banned. It would be a disaster for Scotland given the amount of mines right across the central belt we would have disastrous environmental issues.

Don't altogether disagree with that, as it happens. But if the argument extends to oil & gas then its curtains for the yellows in the NE.

Byronic said:

GIN1138 said:

Byronic said:

Think they've done it

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184152170423291904?s=20

Boris!!!

Imagine, we might go back to a sweeter, more innocent time when we *didn't have to talk about Brexit all day every day*

It will be like the end of a terrible world war.

Please let it happen.

Do you think people might miss the constant drama ? Personally as a political junkie it’s been compulsive viewing but I think it’s time now to move on .

Byronic said:

HYUFD said:

Byronic said:

La Kuenssberg is hinting that a deal is done.

Only provided it is signed off with the DUP and ERG too

Looks like the ERG are on board. So that leaves the DUP

It all depends on figleaves from here - and, of course, that the government has not been saying one thing in London and another in Brussels!

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

Burgessian said:

malcolmg said:

Burgessian said:

malcolmg said:

JonCisBack said:

So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

FFS what a joke

YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.

Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.

Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.

SNP rely on the Greens for a pro-Indy majority in Holyrood. Do you even live in Scotland?

Away you halfwit of course I live in Scotland. They do not depend on the Greens you are havering.

Huh? Who do they depend on then? Without the Greens they would be outnumbered 67-62.

Malc can't count. Another sad indictment of the failing Scottish education system. A subject, which, incidentally, was not mentioned by La Sturgeon once in her address to the saltire wavers at the conference today.

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Not happening.

Byronic said:

Multiple sources now claiming a deal has been baked, but it's cooling on the window-sill

Someone left the cake out in the rain
I don't think that I can take it
'Cause it took so long to bake it
And I'll never have that recipe again
Oh, no

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

The British don’t like a bad loser.

Remain could get hammered in a second referendum, provided there is a credible sensible deal on the table.

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Call me an old cynic if you like, but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the government is saying one thing to the ERG in London and something completely different to the EU in Brussels. This is pretty much what May did, of course. At some point, though, the shit has to hit the fan. The difficulty for the ERG is that if they say no to this deal they are waving goodbye to Brexit. That is less of an issue for the DUP, of course.

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

HYUFD said:

Byronic said:

La Kuenssberg is hinting that a deal is done.

Only provided it is signed off with the DUP and ERG too

Looks like the ERG are on board. So that leaves the DUP

It all depends on figleaves from here - and, of course, that the government has not been saying one thing in London and another in Brussels!

If I'm not entirely mistaken, Mr Johnson will point out to the DUP that they're at liberty to choose between supporting an identified solution now or campaining against it in a NI-only referendum.

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

I doubt we will rejoin. It will be too much hassle for all concerned. After a coupole of years, though, you'd expect things to get quite cuddly.

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

That all depends surely on the EU itself flourishing and growing - economically and politically. Which is far from certain.

Byronic said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

I doubt we will rejoin. It will be too much hassle for all concerned. After a coupole of years, though, you'd expect things to get quite cuddly.

Yes, quite. And of course the UK's return to the SM and maybe even CU, in an EFTA type deal, has the enormous advantage of *Not requiring a referendum*

I can easily see the next left government campaigning on this, and winning. And in we go. Could happen within 5 years. Remainers need to calm down, accept the loss of the 2016 vote, and get working on EEA status.

That will depend on what line the new Johnson administraiton takes on an FTA post-election. As I say down below, with Brexit delivered and the BXP neutered, it could just be that the Tories feel able to return to being the party of business. If that is the case, they will do most of the EFTA/EEA heavy lifting. Johnson's problem may be that his party has turned well to the right and so he may not be able to move away from the course he has set.

humbugger said:

Good evening all. Had the pleasure of listening to Ed Balls speak for half an hour or so earlier today. Perceptive, entertaining and self deprecating much like his book. The contrast between him and the current Labour leadership is marked, and decidedly in his favour.

Do I detect a whiff of desperation from Remainers on here this afternoon?

Certainly my opinion of Balls has grown since he left office. He pushed for Labour to adopt different positions to those adopted by Miliband, all of which with hindsight turn out to have been prescient. He described as "stupid" the idea that Labour would fight a general election opposed to the generally popular view that there should be an in-out referendum on EU membership. He wanted the party to avoid committing to HS2 and instead use the £50bn so released on commitments to more popular priorities of the general public. It's now also known that Balls was concerned at Miliband's timid (and self-defeating) attempts to convince the public that Labour would rigidly conform to Conservative borrowing plans. He wanted Labour to make its warning of further Conservative cuts such as those planned to welfare benefits a more central feature of the 2015 campaign, judging that the public had no appetite for another 5 years of austerity, an insight born out by developments since.

I am not going to get into an argument with those on this site who consider such policies to be wrong. I happen to I think they would have been right - but that is beside the point. The point is that those more populist stances would have helped Labour a great deal in 2015 and could well have made the difference between winning and losing then.

TGOHF2 said:

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

But we will have adjusted to not paying £12Bn per annum - that will be spent elsewhere.

Taxes will have to rise or cuts made.

Plus re employing troughing MEPs.

Tough sell.

The £12 billion only becomes a factor if the economy performs in a way that allows current expenditure to be sustained without extra borrowing or higher taxes. If GDP suffers, then the £12 billion will be plugging holes.

I.e. Boris Johnson is the one under pressure.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1184161694412607488?s=21

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

Britain doesn't have to grow very fast to grow faster than Germany, France and Italy, as things stand.

Once Britain is out, the Euro countries will be able to get through the necessary reforms to make the Eurozone work better. Then growth will return. And look at the UK economic performance pre- and post-1973.

I thought the UK had no veto over what the eurozone countries did?

nico67 said:

Apparently the DUP might be going back to no 10 later this evening for another meeting .

Not sure whether this is good or bad news for a deal.

What time? I've been moving out of Euros into GBP recently (see previous posts) and I wasn't intending to move more tonight, but if DUP add or withdraw their imprimatur, it'll affect the price.

TGOHF2 said:

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

But we will have adjusted to not paying £12Bn per annum - that will be spent elsewhere.

Taxes will have to rise or cuts made.

Plus re employing troughing MEPs.

Tough sell.

"Which hospitals would you close in order to go back into the EU, Rejoiners?"

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF2 said:

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

But we will have adjusted to not paying £12Bn per annum - that will be spent elsewhere.

Taxes will have to rise or cuts made.

Plus re employing troughing MEPs.

Tough sell.

"Which hospitals would you close in order to go back into the EU, Rejoiners?"

I can see the slogans now... "We spend £350mn/week on our NHS. Let's spend it on Eastern Europe instead."

williamglenn said:

I.e. Boris Johnson is the one under pressure.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1184161694412607488?s=21

I dunno; Boris: “Nice province you’ve got there. Shame if a border poll should happen to it.”

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Apparently the DUP might be going back to no 10 later this evening for another meeting .

Not sure whether this is good or bad news for a deal.

What time? I've been moving out of Euros into GBP recently (see previous posts) and I wasn't intending to move more tonight, but if DUP add or withdraw their imprimatur, it'll affect the price.

It’s on polhome , not confirmed yet . It might not happen .

Byronic said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

I doubt we will rejoin. It will be too much hassle for all concerned. After a coupole of years, though, you'd expect things to get quite cuddly.

Yes, quite. And of course the UK's return to the SM and maybe even CU, in an EFTA type deal, has the enormous advantage of *Not requiring a referendum*

I can easily see the next left government campaigning on this, and winning. And in we go. Could happen within 5 years. Remainers need to calm down, accept the loss of the 2016 vote, and get working on EEA status.

The Customs Union will be a non starter for reasons I have explained on here too many times before

This would be awful if having worked for AQA I didn’t know it’s the tip of a truly dreadful iceberg.

https://www.tes.com/news/aqas-gcse-and-level-blunders

What is this wonderful deal that people are coalescing around? It is a disgrace that anybody signs up for a deal which is worse than the one we currently have. Supporting any deal just to get it over is insane and close to criminal.

Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?

surbiton19 said:

Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?

No.

There’s no need for nineteen of them. Jeremy Corbyn’s doing perfectly well on his own.

Gabs2 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

And their friends the racists of Bulgaria?

I am a Jewish football fan. Are you trying to convince me we don't have racism among English crowds?

That’s the problem with going to Spurs away games. It’s sometimes surprising what people can find offensive in the away teams or fans.

surbiton19 said:

Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?

The main thing killing the Labour Party right now is Brexit. The Party is standing in the middle of the road and getting hit by cars going both ways. Taking Brexit off the table forces the politics back onto economics, public services and inequality, where the Tories are much, much weaker.

Manufacturing in the US is already in recession. Tax cuts are a sugar high that dies out quickly, as Trump is now finding. Eurosceptics have claimed the demise of the Euro is just around the corner for almost a decade. They haven't been right yet.

“Tax cuts are a sugar high”

Er...

And, of course, QE and negative interest rates are such a sustainable diet for an economy.

Gabs2 said:

surbiton19 said:

Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?

The main thing killing the Labour Party right now is Brexit. The Party is standing in the middle of the road and getting hit by cars going both ways. Taking Brexit off the table forces the politics back onto economics, public services and inequality, where the Tories are much, much weaker.

On that basis, Labour would vote for any deal. No brainer.

Yet......

TGOHF2 said:

Gabs2 said:

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF2 said:

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

But we will have adjusted to not paying £12Bn per annum - that will be spent elsewhere.

Taxes will have to rise or cuts made.

Plus re employing troughing MEPs.

Tough sell.

"Which hospitals would you close in order to go back into the EU, Rejoiners?"

I can see the slogans now... "We spend £350mn/week on our NHS. Let's spend it on Eastern Europe instead."

No. We will just spend a proportion of the billions we get from extra GDP on that, plus have a huge amount leftover for the NHS.

Sure everyone knows raising taxes to send to Albania raises GDP.

Why don't you compare UK exports to the A10 economies now to 20 years ago?

OldKingCole said:

nichomar said:

RobD said:

nichomar said:

What is this wonderful deal that people are coalescing around? It is a disgrace that anybody signs up for a deal which is worse than the one we currently have. Supporting any deal just to get it over is insane and close to criminal.

The current one was rejected in a referendum. Perhaps you missed it?

Well tell me what this better deal is?

Handing NornIreland over to the Republic?

Surely that's a matter for the people of NI?

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

I think we are all tempted to think others see the world through our own prism. On that basis, I may Be wrong, but I don’t think you’re describing the views of plumbing apprentices, car mechanics, junior soldiers, or my local hairdressers. I don’t think most of those “ younger Brits” feel particularly European. I don’t disagree there’s a group who feel as you suggest; but I think it’s a subset. I think most won’t want to think about Europe again for a long time.

A deal must be imminent. Channel 4 news not leading on Brexit.....

MarqueeMark said:

A deal must be imminent. Channel 4 news not leading on Brexit.....

The Russians "calling the shots" in Syria, according to C4 News.

Anyone able to tell us how long the transition is in their wonderful deal? I think it’s still 31/21/2020 so we now have 14 months to negotiate the next stage, over.... it hasn’t even begun.

TGOHF2 said:

Gabs2 said:

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF2 said:

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

But we will have adjusted to not paying £12Bn per annum - that will be spent elsewhere.

Taxes will have to rise or cuts made.

Plus re employing troughing MEPs.

Tough sell.

"Which hospitals would you close in order to go back into the EU, Rejoiners?"

I can see the slogans now... "We spend £350mn/week on our NHS. Let's spend it on Eastern Europe instead."

No. We will just spend a proportion of the billions we get from extra GDP on that, plus have a huge amount leftover for the NHS.

Sure everyone knows raising taxes to send to Albania raises GDP.

https://twitter.com/futureidentity/status/1180801285953597440?s=20

https://twitter.com/futureidentity/status/1180802882339254272?s=20

surbiton19 said:

Gabs2 said:

surbiton19 said:

Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?

The main thing killing the Labour Party right now is Brexit. The Party is standing in the middle of the road and getting hit by cars going both ways. Taking Brexit off the table forces the politics back onto economics, public services and inequality, where the Tories are much, much weaker.

If Johnson really gets this done, he can look forward to 400 Tory MPs at the next GE. Even the ERG will be neutered.

Nope. The public never give credit for what is done. They want to focus on what is next. Ask Winston Churchill. The question for Labour is if they want Brexit to be the pressing general election decision or public services.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose

I think about a 25% chance of that route working without Labour's support.

1) SNP v unlikely to vote for it - they'll say they're in favour of an election in principle, but when it comes down to it will have a phobia of being seen to help the Tories - remember they didn't even support May's motion for an early election in 2017 because "Scotland will never dance to a Tory PM's tune"

2) The Lib Dems might vote for it, but even then a majority in the Commons wouldn't be certain, AND the Lib Dems would also support amendments to the motion that would harm the Tories in an election (votes at 16, votes for EU nationals)

3) Even if it does get through the Commons, the Lords could vote it down.

1) - The SNP will never have a better time for a GE

2) - The Lib Dems may try amendments but any change would not be possible without legislation that would not have time

3) - As has been said the cross benchers would see it pass

But do you not think for one minute how this would portay labour, the official opposition doing everything possible to prevent facing the electorate

Cowardice and being frit all in one

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

The British don’t like a bad loser.

Remain could get hammered in a second referendum, provided there is a credible sensible deal on the table.

COULD

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Gabs2 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Yorkcity said:

MikeSmithson said:

Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Agreed

Do you realise how mad this sounds?

We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

This is the famous definition of insanity.

No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

Remain lost. And there it is.

Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

But time will tell.

I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.

Britain doesn't have to grow very fast to grow faster than Germany, France and Italy, as things stand.

Once Britain is out, the Euro countries will be able to get through the necessary reforms to make the Eurozone work better. Then growth will return. And look at the UK economic performance pre- and post-1973.

I think that throughout the EU including the UK, we are entering a period with long term anaemic growth compared to previous decades. This is due to a mix of demographics and of temporal trends. Long term trend growth of 1-1.5% will be fairly typical. Growing out of debt and slowdowns will be difficult.

nichomar said:

TGOHF2 said:

https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1184163018705424387?s=21

Really reliable unbiased source then, can she tell us what the deal is rather than spout shit?

It’s an astonishing claim and totally implausible.

Does anyone really believe Nadine Dorries is on speaking terms with any Labour MPs?

However, it wouldn’t surprise me if she was right. When Labour reject heir own proposals as meaningless drivel you know all they care about is themselves, as befits a bunch of third rate fat cat stooges who got here by family wealth and contacts.

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF2 said:

https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1184163018705424387?s=21

100 abstentions then.....

They could form the National Labour Party, put in Caroline Flint as leader, and decimate Corbyn at the next election.

Gabs2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF2 said:

https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1184163018705424387?s=21

100 abstentions then.....

They could form the National Labour Party, put in Caroline Flint as leader, and decimate Corbyn at the next election.

Wouldn't a name with "Labour" in it be disallowed by the Electoral Commission though? I suppose they could call themselves National Socialists...