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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the out

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  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,756
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.
    SNP rely on the Greens for a pro-Indy majority in Holyrood. Do you even live in Scotland?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
  • RobD said:

    Byronic said:
    I mean there's no way for Parliament to pass all the necessary laws even if the deal was signed this week.
    Well indeed. Another reason why Boris Johnson has lied to the British people. Brexit will go on and on for years. What a balls up it is.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    Probably boils down to whether something has been passed here and in Europe by Halloween, if formal agreement has been reached with 'details' left to hammer out it should steady his ship. Especially if he gets a committment that there will be no extension beyond a technical one. Most people want it done they'll wait a month or so if its looking nailed on
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Carnyx said:

    If Brexit is all about keeping furriners out, why does its central strategy rely on a hugely open back door? And how are the Brexiters going to react when they realise this?

    The Home Office long ago gave up on securing the border to keep people out. That's why the hostile environment exists, to make landlords, employers, banks and as many other people as possible (doctors, nurses, etc) into free part-time immigration officials so that the border is everywhere.

    Something not quite right with your papers? Straight onto the extradition flight for you and you can appeal from wherever we sent you to. Even if you're British (he was lucky that time).
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    Yes but not by the 31st of October.

    That do or die pledge was damn stupid.
    He will be forgiven if he lands a deal.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    IDS is not one of the 28 Spartans who opposed MV3. If he's not yet satisfied, Boris Johnson has big problems.

    It seems that, having made a big compromise on the single market, and small ones on consent and customs, Boris has no further room to move. If there is a deal, it will need more movement on the EU's side.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    So, if by some miracle the DUP+ERG are on board, that's 288+10 (-1 dep speaker) = 297.

    Needs 23 more from Labour and the Indies.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    That would be great, or at least better than any of the alternatives starting from here (although not as good as Theresa May's deal would have been).

    It would however require the cooperation of a whole bunch of politicians who are no friends of Boris.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    Yes, but if parliament does pass it, Labour stop the bleeding to both sides, Boris has failed his no extension pledge and reduced Leaver anger takes the wind out of Boris's sails.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.
    SNP rely on the Greens for a pro-Indy majority in Holyrood. Do you even live in Scotland?
    Did you really mean to ask that question ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Andrew said:

    So, if by some miracle the DUP+ERG are on board, that's 288+10 (-1 dep speaker) = 297.

    Needs 23 more from Labour and the Indies.

    Most of the 21 rebels, hoey, Austin, elphicke and the ex LD guy, a handful of labour
    Mann and OMara wont be there to vote.
    Should pass
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    GIN1138 said:

    Noo said:

    He needs to be told what he thinks before he can tell us
    He is HYUFD best mate
    Wonder if @HYUFD will have some inside info to share soon?
    Perhaps he hasn't yet been relieved of his duties in the bunker planning the raids on Spanish ham factories.
    Whenever i am in iberian countries i find it off putting they slice ham off a leg! The trotter puts me off! It looks horrible! :disappointed:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Scott_P said:
    Another helot speaks. They parted company at the third meaningful vote.

    Threatening withdrawal of the whip doesn't look very smart, given the Brexit party will be sniffing around any MPs who are made an example of on the Leavey wing.
    Yeah but if the outcome is a multi-party hostage swap whereby the Conservative Party loses Mark Francois and Steve Baker in return for getting back David Gauke and Phil Hammond, it would be a spiffing deal.
    Are you rejoining tomorrow? :D
    I'll rejoin when David Gauke, or someone equally sensible, becomes leader.

    I think I'll have a long wait!
    I agree
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    CatMan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think realistically Thursday 5th December is the last possible date for an election until late February/early March.

    When would the election have to be called by for 5th December?
    Via a vote of no confidence? Thursday.

    Via a 2/3rds vote? Halloween.
    Thanks. So basically if an election isn't agreed by 1st November that's it until the end of Febaury/early March.
    Not necessarily. An election could be announced in mid- December with Polling Day set for 23rd or 30th January.
    I can't see people wanting to risk the last two weeks of January and first two weeks of February (traditionally the coldest four weeks of the year) on an election.

    If an election doesn't happen by 5th December I really think the window closes until end of February/early March or more likely next Spring.
    Whats the earliest date of a GE i.e. if a vote in parliament were held today? I think i have read 5 weeks is the minimum length of campaign? I find FTPA and all that flows from it is in need of clarification.
    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1184110807543635971?s=20
    Not a snowballs chance in hell of a 9 January election.

    That would entails campaign over Christmas.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    If there's a monthly market available for next year then January should be a mammoth lay. Not a chance!
    January 23rd/30th may be possibilities.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Andrew said:

    So, if by some miracle the DUP+ERG are on board, that's 288+10 (-1 dep speaker) = 297.

    Needs 23 more from Labour and the Indies.

    The Gaukeward squad will vote for a deal and then with the (ex-)Labour MPs who voted for MV3 he would be over the line.

    A deal has always looked likely to pass if it had DUP and ERG support. That's why they're so much to blame for the current mess.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Noo said:

    He needs to be told what he thinks before he can tell us
    He is HYUFD best mate
    Wonder if @HYUFD will have some inside info to share soon?
    Perhaps he hasn't yet been relieved of his duties in the bunker planning the raids on Spanish ham factories.
    Whenever i am in iberian countries i find it off putting they slice ham off a leg! The trotter puts me off! It looks horrible! :disappointed:
    Tastes bloody good though (especially with a nicely chilled Manzanilla - one of the food/wine pairings which prove that God meant us to eat meat).
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    GIN1138 said:

    Noo said:

    He needs to be told what he thinks before he can tell us
    He is HYUFD best mate
    Wonder if @HYUFD will have some inside info to share soon?
    I doubt it, he might still be in NI! He is commited to commenting, even on holiday! But inside info - No!
    Actually was in the Republic today, visiting Sligo and Donegal
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,892

    Carnyx said:

    If Brexit is all about keeping furriners out, why does its central strategy rely on a hugely open back door? And how are the Brexiters going to react when they realise this?

    The Home Office long ago gave up on securing the border to keep people out. That's why the hostile environment exists, to make landlords, employers, banks and as many other people as possible (doctors, nurses, etc) into free part-time immigration officials so that the border is everywhere.

    Something not quite right with your papers? Straight onto the extradition flight for you and you can appeal from wherever we sent you to. Even if you're British (he was lucky that time).
    Thank you so very much. That does make sense of it, at long last - well, a sort of sense ...
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    Yes, but if parliament does pass it, Labour stop the bleeding to both sides, Boris has failed his no extension pledge and reduced Leaver anger takes the wind out of Boris's sails.
    If they pass the deal Boris will be a hero! He'll still win.

    The worst case scenario is Boris doesn't get a deal, the EU extends by, say, 6 months or more, the negotiations get bogged down yet again, the clamour for a referendum grows. THEN he is in deep deep shit.

  • Andrew said:

    So, if by some miracle the DUP+ERG are on board, that's 288+10 (-1 dep speaker) = 297.

    Needs 23 more from Labour and the Indies.

    15 or more of the conservative rebels will vote for a deal and have their whip restored for the GE. And some who are standing down will vote for it

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Not so long ago, he was also on record as saying he would approve an election without ANY pre-conditions, but then Labour MPs forced him to change his mind when Boris suggested one.

    Even John McDonnell has been sounding off in the media about how there should be a referendum before an election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Well, we all know he’s a liar. But he’s also a populist and wimping on an election isn’t necessarily popular, as he correctly judged last time.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    GIN1138 said:

    Noo said:

    He needs to be told what he thinks before he can tell us
    He is HYUFD best mate
    Wonder if @HYUFD will have some inside info to share soon?
    Perhaps he hasn't yet been relieved of his duties in the bunker planning the raids on Spanish ham factories.
    Whenever i am in iberian countries i find it off putting they slice ham off a leg! The trotter puts me off! It looks horrible! :disappointed:
    Be worse if they sliced it off anything else, surely?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    This is becoming more and more like the famous train-station scene in Les vacances de Monsieur Hulot:

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184127055333605376

    The only sensible thing to do right now is sit back and await developments. It's not clear whether there is the outline of a deal, the basis of a deal, what such a hypothetical deal might entail and (given the absence of any content of that hypothetical deal) whether it is sellable to any of the interested parties. So, like Stanley Baldwin, we'll have to wait and see.
    That was Asquith I believe!
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,756

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.
    SNP rely on the Greens for a pro-Indy majority in Holyrood. Do you even live in Scotland?
    Did you really mean to ask that question ?
    Well, on reflection, maybe not. Wouldn't want to be responsible for Malcy bursting a blood vessel.
  • https://youtu.be/Gla0bzMsoIo
    A month is along time!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    LOL, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you also convinced they "wouldn't be able to get away with" turning down Johnson's original demand for an October election? Before they did....get away with it?

    If Labour don't think an election is in their self-interest, then they can just come up with another reason to move the goalposts. Apart from anything else, since the A50 extension is apparently going to only last til January, they can just say "No Deal hasn't really been taken off the table" and start demanding an even longer extension before agreeing to an election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    Plus, Corbyn is sick of it all. He will want an early GE.

    Will he be able to persuade John McDonnell though?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Scott_P said:
    ‘In the sack’ is possibly not the most felicitous turn of phrase when describing negotiations involving our current PM...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Byronic said:
    We can still inisist on an effective date of October 31st.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar.
    Yes he is. Edited highlights:

    I am opposed to welfare cuts
    I’ve never shared a platform with Paul Eisen.
    There were no seats on the train so I had to sit in the corridor
    I have always been a good friend of the Jews
    I was present when they laid the wreath, but I don’t think I was involved
    THe manifesto is fully costed
    I will deal with student debt
    I do not support moves to remove the deputy leader

    Need I go on?

    He makes Jeffrey Archer look positively honest.
  • Andrew said:

    So, if by some miracle the DUP+ERG are on board, that's 288+10 (-1 dep speaker) = 297.

    Needs 23 more from Labour and the Indies.

    The ERG and DUP need a figleaf to agree what they so vehemently rejected before and one will be found. There will be enough independents and Labour MPs to get it over the line. It should win Johnson his election. The question then is whether we roll along in BINO mode for the forseeable or there is a year and a bit of rowing over the FTA before we meet again for another No Deal deadline in 2021. What I really hope is that having delivered Brexit and got his majority Johnson will start listening to business instead of wanting to fuck it and agree a final FTA that does not cause too much damage.

  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    LOL, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you also convinced they "wouldn't be able to get away with" turning down Johnson's original demand for an October election? Before they did....get away with it?

    If Labour don't think an election is in their self-interest, then they can just come up with another reason to move the goalposts. Apart from anything else, since the A50 extension is apparently going to only last til January, they can just say "No Deal hasn't really been taken off the table" and start demanding an even longer extension before agreeing to an election.
    In the meantime Corbyn just gets older. More wittering and obtuse. And more people realise that Labour and Corbyn in particular are just....well...sh*t really.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    LOL, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you also convinced they "wouldn't be able to get away with" turning down Johnson's original demand for an October election? Before they did....get away with it?

    If Labour don't think an election is in their self-interest, then they can just come up with another reason to move the goalposts. Apart from anything else, since the A50 extension is apparently going to only last til January, they can just say "No Deal hasn't really been taken off the table" and start demanding an even longer extension before agreeing to an election.
    Fair points, but an Opposition is always eager for an election, by definition, and I don't think Labour trotting out yet-another-excuse-for-delaying-the-election will wash. It will look too ugly.
  • Noo said:

    Byronic said:

    Yes, amidst the sound and fury, it seems like they are all feeling the pressure. Another Brexit extension takes us into ever further levels of angst. And towards a violent outcome, or a horrible No Deal.

    Britain has to leave, the EU has to let us go.
    Blah blah blah violence if we don't get our way blah blah blah
    Yep that is what Remain have been promising.
  • Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    LOL, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you also convinced they "wouldn't be able to get away with" turning down Johnson's original demand for an October election? Before they did....get away with it?

    If Labour don't think an election is in their self-interest, then they can just come up with another reason to move the goalposts. Apart from anything else, since the A50 extension is apparently going to only last til January, they can just say "No Deal hasn't really been taken off the table" and start demanding an even longer extension before agreeing to an election.
    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    LOL, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you also convinced they "wouldn't be able to get away with" turning down Johnson's original demand for an October election? Before they did....get away with it?

    If Labour don't think an election is in their self-interest, then they can just come up with another reason to move the goalposts. Apart from anything else, since the A50 extension is apparently going to only last til January, they can just say "No Deal hasn't really been taken off the table" and start demanding an even longer extension before agreeing to an election.
    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose
    That would have to pass the House of Lords as well.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    ydoethur said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    LOL, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you also convinced they "wouldn't be able to get away with" turning down Johnson's original demand for an October election? Before they did....get away with it?

    If Labour don't think an election is in their self-interest, then they can just come up with another reason to move the goalposts. Apart from anything else, since the A50 extension is apparently going to only last til January, they can just say "No Deal hasn't really been taken off the table" and start demanding an even longer extension before agreeing to an election.
    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose
    That would have to pass the House of Lords as well.
    The crossbenchers would see it through easily, they have no skin in the game
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. 565, referendum first suits Labour, as it's eminently winnable and will be both a defeat for the Conservatives (leadership, anyway) and wind up their supporters.
  • ydoethur said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    LOL, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you also convinced they "wouldn't be able to get away with" turning down Johnson's original demand for an October election? Before they did....get away with it?

    If Labour don't think an election is in their self-interest, then they can just come up with another reason to move the goalposts. Apart from anything else, since the A50 extension is apparently going to only last til January, they can just say "No Deal hasn't really been taken off the table" and start demanding an even longer extension before agreeing to an election.
    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose
    That would have to pass the House of Lords as well.
    I doubt the Lords would stop it
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019



    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose

    I think about a 25% chance of that route working without Labour's support.

    1) SNP v unlikely to vote for it - they'll say they're in favour of an election in principle, but when it comes down to it will have a phobia of being seen to help the Tories - remember they didn't even support May's motion for an early election in 2017 because "Scotland will never dance to a Tory PM's tune"

    2) The Lib Dems might vote for it, but even then a majority in the Commons wouldn't be certain, AND the Lib Dems would also support amendments to the motion that would harm the Tories in an election (votes at 16, votes for EU nationals)

    3) Even if it does get through the Commons, the Lords could vote it down.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    Dadge said: "The campaign definitely affected the outcome. Polls from the time show that support for Leave increased during the campaign."

    Sorry - I`ll be clearer - the campaign did affect the res in their lives.

    I`ve always tho country`s wishes.

    Of course the lies (or, if you pre cosy free trade agreement with the EU.

    The reassurances, whether menda them out of history.
    Youre back touting the wallet argu priorities.
    No, that's wrong. It was a gateway argument: lots of people wanted to vote Leave, because of the 'values' side, but were reluctant to do so because they (rightly) feared the economic cost would be too high. So assuaging that fear was an absolute prerequisite for Leave winning.

    To give you an illustration: befand Don't Know - amongst Tory activists in a rural Leave-voting area! And of course, the concerns amongst the Don't Knows were largely economic; the Leave campaign had to neutralise those concerns to win.
    youre simply seeking to discount the probability that "lots of people" undertood the consequences but still voted on values irrespective of economics.Remainers just cannot comprehend why leavers voted on values not money and vice versa of course.

    No doubt economics swung some voters from leave to remain, but when the final tally was done there werent enoigh of them.

    Your illustration simply says remain and Osborne ran a crap campaign by treating people with scare stories.Remain has and still has valid economic points but currently they are all lost in the mire of shroud waving and calamity spin.

    If we had a second referendum remain would still lose the economic argument because you cant communicate reasonably.
    Nah Alan. Many Leavers voted according to their heart and/or acted analogously to coming home from work after a bollocking from their boss and then kicking the dog. It was a god-given opportunity to stick it to the man and they didn't need asking twice. Paint the EU as some huge all-seeing director of their lives which, by voting leave, they could stick it to? Tick. And that's what they did. Speaking to the Aldi shop workers in Grantham, the most common response is "oh, I dunno" when asked why they voted leave and they said they had done.
    Context is important :wink:

    "I dunno" means "I don't want to get into a discussion with someone who is probably going to tell me I am thick/poor/racist"
  • algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?

    I'd say that was deliberately misunderstanding what people have said.
    Unpack it for me. Because Leavers have been remarkably vociferous in claiming a mandate for some very specific things. Unfortunately, most of those things seem to be buzzing around inside their own heads rather than having any conceivable justification by reference to external events.
    There is a misunderstanding here. Parliament's mandate was given to the people for one question only: Remain or Leave. Having decided that, the mandate returns to government and parliament to sort it out; until they have done so it remains with them. We can all make our judgements at General Elections. The respective campaigns were not run by organisations that had the power to implement them. Only government and parliament has that power.
    Bollocks. The vote was won with the Leave campaign. Pretending it didn't happen and ignoring the basis on which it was won is a betrayal of democracy.
    I think the scrutiny should be on the Remain vote not leave as I believe more people were convinced to vote Remain during the campaign including me.

    We have ample evidence that people voted UKIP for years before the vote. Let’s assume that both them and also voters similar to them who registered to vote just to vote in that election total 4.5 million. If we then assume half of the conservative voters in 2015 would vote leave then we already have 10 million locked in votes even before the campaign.

    Now I am one of those strange Lib Dem voters who now support Brexit - and I was initially going to vote Leave on democratic grounds - I don’t believe that democracy is served well at a distance in Brussels, and I was not happy with ever closer union, but I voted remain in the end because of the cataclysmic economic forecasts in the event of leave. I was convinced by an argument and that prompted me to vote Remain.

    In my experience I have not come across anyone who was going to vote Remain but was convinced by the arguments during the campaign to vote Leave. So the argument that leave tricked people doesn’t ring true to me. It seems more plausible that over a number of years a build up of anti-EU sentiment that could not normally be indicated at the ballot box was mobilised.
    By far the most reasoned and most reasonable post I have seen since I rejoined. Thank you

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Not at all. It's like the difference between quarrying Arthur's Seat [big hill in central Edinburgh, though I'm pretty sure you know it, and yes they tried to do it] and quarrying somewhere out in the Lothian countryside. Doesn't bear on the pros and cons of quarrying in general.

    Not really following that analogy. The problem, surely, is whether burnishing green credentials is worth throwing a hugely important business sector under the bus. May not play well in NE which is already unimpressed by the possibility of a sell-out of the fishermen to the EU (in the event of IndyRef).
    Fracking is a crap business, it should be banned. It would be a disaster for Scotland given the amount of mines right across the central belt we would have disastrous environmental issues.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Mr. 565, referendum first suits Labour, as it's eminently winnable and will be both a defeat for the Conservatives (leadership, anyway) and wind up their supporters.

    How do they secure a referendum?

    Now that a deal looks possible, any MP voting for a referendum will be.... brave
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Not at all. It's like the difference between quarrying Arthur's Seat [big hill in central Edinburgh, though I'm pretty sure you know it, and yes they tried to do it] and quarrying somewhere out in the Lothian countryside. Doesn't bear on the pros and cons of quarrying in general.

    Not really following that analogy. The problem, surely, is whether burnishing green credentials is worth throwing a hugely important business sector under the bus. May not play well in NE which is already unimpressed by the possibility of a sell-out of the fishermen to the EU (in the event of IndyRef).
    The NE fishermen are actually a tiny group which mostly sold themselves out long ago and are vastly overrepresented by the London media by contrast to the industry as a whole, which is much more mixed in its approach to Brexit.

    But to your point: as Richard Tyndall says, different companies, different ways of doing things, so effectively a different business sector anyway. And as Noo said, if oil is going to be run down, it's insane to go to fracking as well as the established industry.

    The point re the analogy was that if you are also going to wreck people's lives and environments even more by fracking, then there is no doubt what the correct choice is.

    And keep an eye on Ms Swinson, as I hinted earlier.



    The NE fishermen are a handful of Tory millionaires, they will get their just desserts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Far be it from me to suggest that Corbyn may be...ahem....a liar.
    Corbyn is many bad things, but he's not an inveterate liar. He is self deluded tho. He thinks he can win the next election. He's an old man in a hurry.

    More importantly, Labour simply cannot run from an election once No Deal is off the table. It would look terrible. Basic cowardice.
    LOL, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you also convinced they "wouldn't be able to get away with" turning down Johnson's original demand for an October election? Before they did....get away with it?

    If Labour don't think an election is in their self-interest, then they can just come up with another reason to move the goalposts. Apart from anything else, since the A50 extension is apparently going to only last til January, they can just say "No Deal hasn't really been taken off the table" and start demanding an even longer extension before agreeing to an election.
    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose
    That would have to pass the House of Lords as well.
    The crossbenchers would see it through easily, they have no skin in the game
    For that very reason I suspect they wouldn’t vote.

    Equally however on checking the Tories and Lib Dems between them would under those circumstances have a majority.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Byronic said:
    We can still inisist on an effective date of October 31st.
    "I'll pay you next month, but I'll backdate the cheque so it looks like I paid you on time. Is that OK?"

    "No"

    (Incidentally the date of Charles II's reign is deemed to be from the moment of his father's execution, despite the fact that Cromwell had ruled for about 17 years after. Yes, we literally rewrote legal history)
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Good evening all. Had the pleasure of listening to Ed Balls speak for half an hour or so earlier today. Perceptive, entertaining and self deprecating much like his book. The contrast between him and the current Labour leadership is marked, and decidedly in his favour.

    Do I detect a whiff of desperation from Remainers on here this afternoon?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    Danny565 said:

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozos worst nightmare . He gets a deal and still ends up with an extension . In the meantime Farage and co shout betrayal, the Tories slip in the polls and then there’s an election .

    Quite likely I think.
    You wish.

    More likely is that Boris will say Look, I got a deal, it keeps the Irish happy and most of the country happy, it promises to end the nightmare, but this stupid parliament won't pass it, so give me a majority that will pass it.

    He'd be home and hosed. In the ensuing GE, he'd get a big majority, and pass the deal. Brexeunt.
    What 'ensuing GE'? A majority of the Commons wants to see Boris lose an election, therefore it will only approve an election if/when his chances are stuffed.
    Corbyn is on record, many times, and very recently, as saying he will call an election as soon as No Deal is off the table.

    I believe him. As soon as Hallowe'en passes (if there is no deal sealed) he will call an election, then Boris will get his chance.
    Not so long ago, he was also on record as saying he would approve an election without ANY pre-conditions, but then Labour MPs forced him to change his mind when Boris suggested one.

    Even John McDonnell has been sounding off in the media about how there should be a referendum before an election.
    Hopefully there will be a referendum before an election.
    As an election is about many policies not just Brexit.

    Hard to see it happening .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:
    We can still inisist on an effective date of October 31st.
    "I'll pay you next month, but I'll backdate the cheque so it looks like I paid you on time. Is that OK?"

    "No"

    (Incidentally the date of Charles II's reign is deemed to be from the moment of his father's execution, despite the fact that Cromwell had ruled for about 17 years after. Yes, we literally rewrote legal history)
    Well, his reign in Scotland did date from the moment of his father’s execution. And since the law abolishing the monarchy was ruled out of order as it never received Royal Assent, that meant like the recent prorogation, it was meaningless.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.
    SNP rely on the Greens for a pro-Indy majority in Holyrood. Do you even live in Scotland?
    Away you halfwit of course I live in Scotland. They do not depend on the Greens you are havering.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,892
    Danny565 said:



    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose

    I think about a 25% chance of that route working without Labour's support.

    1) SNP v unlikely to vote for it - they'll say they're in favour of an election in principle, but when it comes down to it will have a phobia of being seen to help the Tories - remember they didn't even support May's motion for an early election in 2017 because "Scotland will never dance to a Tory PM's tune"

    2) The Lib Dems might vote for it, but even then a majority in the Commons wouldn't be certain, AND the Lib Dems would also support amendments to the motion that would harm the Tories in an election (votes at 16, votes for EU nationals)

    3) Even if it does get through the Commons, the Lords could vote it down.
    I agree re the SNP. Labour, whether London or Slab, are still whining about 1979 and the fall of the Callaghan administration and allegedly Mrs T is the fault of the SNP. So the SNP will be very reluctant to do anything to supposedly justify that whinge.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/03/did-snp-bring-really-down-callaghan-government-and-pave-way-thatcherism
  • Danny565 said:



    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose

    I think about a 25% chance of that route working without Labour's support.

    1) SNP v unlikely to vote for it - they'll say they're in favour of an election in principle, but when it comes down to it will have a phobia of being seen to help the Tories - remember they didn't even support May's motion for an early election in 2017 because "Scotland will never dance to a Tory PM's tune"

    2) The Lib Dems might vote for it, but even then a majority in the Commons wouldn't be certain, AND the Lib Dems would also support amendments to the motion that would harm the Tories in an election (votes at 16, votes for EU nationals)

    3) Even if it does get through the Commons, the Lords could vote it down.
    1) - The SNP will never have a better time for a GE

    2) - The Lib Dems may try amendments but any change would not be possible without legislation that would not have time

    3) - As has been said the cross benchers would see it pass

    But do you not think for one minute how this would portay labour, the official opposition doing everything possible to prevent facing the electorate

    Cowardice and being frit all in one
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.
    SNP rely on the Greens for a pro-Indy majority in Holyrood. Do you even live in Scotland?
    Away you halfwit of course I live in Scotland. They do not depend on the Greens you are havering.
    Huh? Who do they depend on then? Without the Greens they would be outnumbered 67-62.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
    Secret of sales. It’s not what you are selling, but how you sell it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Gabs2 said:
    As straight as a three bob note.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited October 2019
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.
    SNP rely on the Greens for a pro-Indy majority in Holyrood. Do you even live in Scotland?
    Away you halfwit of course I live in Scotland. They do not depend on the Greens you are havering.
    Huh? Who do they depend on then? Without the Greens they would be outnumbered 67-62.
    No-one
    PS: Enough frivolity , I must away, my wine order has not arrived and supplies are depleted. I am thirsty so have to go to bloody shops.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:
    We can still inisist on an effective date of October 31st.
    "I'll pay you next month, but I'll backdate the cheque so it looks like I paid you on time. Is that OK?"

    "No"

    (Incidentally the date of Charles II's reign is deemed to be from the moment of his father's execution, despite the fact that Cromwell had ruled for about 17 years after. Yes, we literally rewrote legal history)
    Effective dates are a very common concept.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Byronic, amendment to a deal. Or, if the deal fails to pass in the Commons, as an alternative ("Given we cannot reach agreement etc etc pass back to the British people").
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
    Secret of sales. It’s not what you are selling, but how you sell it.
    "Brexit is finished if you don't accept this deal", perhaps. :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    humbugger said:

    Good evening all. Had the pleasure of listening to Ed Balls speak for half an hour or so earlier today. Perceptive, entertaining and self deprecating much like his book. The contrast between him and the current Labour leadership is marked, and decidedly in his favour.

    Do I detect a whiff of desperation from Remainers on here this afternoon?

    Will he bother going back into politics? Seems increasingly unlikely now.

    I guess if Corbyn gets an absolute shellacking in Nov/Dec/March then maybe a by-election?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    RobD said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
    Secret of sales. It’s not what you are selling, but how you sell it.
    "Brexit is finished if you don't accept this deal", perhaps. :)
    Basically - yes.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    La Kuenssberg is hinting that a deal is done.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:
    We can still inisist on an effective date of October 31st.
    "I'll pay you next month, but I'll backdate the cheque so it looks like I paid you on time. Is that OK?"

    "No"

    (Incidentally the date of Charles II's reign is deemed to be from the moment of his father's execution, despite the fact that Cromwell had ruled for about 17 years after. Yes, we literally rewrote legal history)
    I think those 17 years didn't exist, legally speaking.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
    Secret of sales. It’s not what you are selling, but how you sell it.
    No, the secret of sales is to believe in the product. Without that it is impossible to convince anyone else.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    F1: I'll be bloody annoyed if he retires at the end of the season:
    https://twitter.com/natesaundersF1/status/1184137444691791872
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.
    SNP rely on the Greens for a pro-Indy majority in Holyrood. Do you even live in Scotland?
    Away you halfwit of course I live in Scotland. They do not depend on the Greens you are havering.
    I did warn that you may have some comment to make Malc
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    So Cameron didn’t do too badly at all, then?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Byronic said:
    Amen ! It’s not clear though whether this is legal text or the proposals being agreed on .

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Weekend polling will be interesting if a deal appears
  • Gabs2 said:
    As straight as a three bob note.
    We should leave UEFA and then sign separate deals with every other European National FA
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
    Secret of sales. It’s not what you are selling, but how you sell it.
    No, the secret of sales is to believe in the product. Without that it is impossible to convince anyone else.
    Nonsense. A good salesperson can sell anything to anyone.

    You can think somethings completely crap yet still flog it to anyone. That’s what being a good salesperson is about.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Byronic said:

    Mr. 565, referendum first suits Labour, as it's eminently winnable and will be both a defeat for the Conservatives (leadership, anyway) and wind up their supporters.

    How do they secure a referendum?

    Now that a deal looks possible, any MP voting for a referendum will be.... brave
    Give over.
    Why shouldn't a remain MP vote for a referendum.





  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    F1: I'll be bloody annoyed if he retires at the end of the season:
    https://twitter.com/natesaundersF1/status/1184137444691791872

    Lewis lecturing people about veganism and the environment while taking part in about the most environmentally unfriendly sport going!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Byronic said:

    La Kuenssberg is hinting that a deal is done.

    An agreed UK-EU statement will be tabled at the European Council meeting on Thursday/Friday even if it isn’t a full “Deal”.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:



    Boris can call a vote on an amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority with the SNP and no doubt Lib Dems would cook Corbyn's goose

    I think about a 25% chance of that route working without Labour's support.

    1) SNP v unlikely to vote for it - they'll say they're in favour of an election in principle, but when it comes down to it will have a phobia of being seen to help the Tories - remember they didn't even support May's motion for an early election in 2017 because "Scotland will never dance to a Tory PM's tune"

    2) The Lib Dems might vote for it, but even then a majority in the Commons wouldn't be certain, AND the Lib Dems would also support amendments to the motion that would harm the Tories in an election (votes at 16, votes for EU nationals)

    3) Even if it does get through the Commons, the Lords could vote it down.
    1) - The SNP will never have a better time for a GE

    2) - The Lib Dems may try amendments but any change would not be possible without legislation that would not have time

    3) - As has been said the cross benchers would see it pass

    But do you not think for one minute how this would portay labour, the official opposition doing everything possible to prevent facing the electorate

    Cowardice and being frit all in one
    1) That's not addressing my point - yes, the SNP would love an election all other things being equal, but they don't want to go into an election having been seen to have joined hands with the Tories

    2) Eh?! The whole scenario we're talking about is that the government is tabling legislation amending the FTPA; MPs can propose any amendments to that legislation they want, whether it's votes at 16, votes for EU nationals, or votes for every golden retriever born on a Tuesday. And if those amendments pass, it becomes part of the legislation

    3) WHY would you be so certain of this, when crossbenchers have regularly voted against this govt??

    There's a reason why the government, even when they were at their most desperate, only tried to secure an election through the two-thirds route rather than the FTPA amendment route - because the former doesn't allow for amendments and doesn't go to the Lords.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited October 2019
    Multiple sources now claiming a deal has been baked, but it's cooling on the window-sill
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    La Kuenssberg is hinting that a deal is done.

    Only provided it is signed off with the DUP and ERG too
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    La Kuenssberg is hinting that a deal is done.

    Only provided it is signed off with the DUP and ERG too
    Looks like the ERG are on board. So that leaves the DUP
  • Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
    Secret of sales. It’s not what you are selling, but how you sell it.
    No, the secret of sales is to believe in the product. Without that it is impossible to convince anyone else.
    Nonsense. A good salesperson can sell anything to anyone.

    You can think somethings completely crap yet still flog it to anyone. That’s what being a good salesperson is about.

    Yep, the sales people in our company rarely have much of an idea what they are selling. That does not matter, though, if you know your client.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:
    We can still inisist on an effective date of October 31st.
    "I'll pay you next month, but I'll backdate the cheque so it looks like I paid you on time. Is that OK?"

    "No"

    (Incidentally the date of Charles II's reign is deemed to be from the moment of his father's execution, despite the fact that Cromwell had ruled for about 17 years after. Yes, we literally rewrote legal history)
    Well, his reign in Scotland did date from the moment of his father’s execution. And since the law abolishing the monarchy was ruled out of order as it never received Royal Assent, that meant like the recent prorogation, it was meaningless.
    The first regency of Prince George also had to be backdated as it wasn't technically legal, given the King was off his rocker and couldn't give legal assent.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
    Secret of sales. It’s not what you are selling, but how you sell it.
    No, the secret of sales is to believe in the product. Without that it is impossible to convince anyone else.
    The existence of the timeshare and ppi industries rather disproves your point.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    GIN1138 said:
    Imagine, we might go back to a sweeter, more innocent time when we *didn't have to talk about Brexit all day every day*

    It will be like the end of a terrible world war.

    Please let it happen.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,756
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.

    Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...

    FFS what a joke

    YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
    Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
    Not at all. It's like the difference between quarrying Arthur's Seat [big hill in central Edinburgh, though I'm pretty sure you know it, and yes they tried to do it] and quarrying somewhere out in the Lothian countryside. Doesn't bear on the pros and cons of quarrying in general.

    Not really following that analogy. The problem, surely, is whether burnishing green credentials is worth throwing a hugely important business sector under the bus. May not play well in NE which is already unimpressed by the possibility of a sell-out of the fishermen to the EU (in the event of IndyRef).
    The NE fishermen are actually a tiny group which mostly sold themselves out long ago and are vastly overrepresented by the London media by contrast to the industry as a whole, which is much more mixed in its approach to Brexit.

    But to your point: as Richard Tyndall says, different companies, different ways of doing things, so effectively a different business sector anyway. And as Noo said, if oil is going to be run down, it's insane to go to fracking as well as the established industry.

    The point re the analogy was that if you are also going to wreck people's lives and environments even more by fracking, then there is no doubt what the correct choice is.

    And keep an eye on Ms Swinson, as I hinted earlier.



    The NE fishermen are a handful of Tory millionaires, they will get their just desserts.
    It's an iconic sector. Helps to explain why the NE of Scotland turned blue at the last GE. Amazing that you don't seem to get it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

    Jeez. Give over.

    The vote was in 2016. Now we do Brexit. And we move ON.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

    Agreed
  • Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Just Francois, then.

    If the ERG are happy, then presumably the DUP are happy.

    Can Boris do this?!?!
    If Baker is satisfied, then Boris has done some interesting squaring of circles. It must surely be more refined than the May deal.
    Secret of sales. It’s not what you are selling, but how you sell it.
    No, the secret of sales is to believe in the product. Without that it is impossible to convince anyone else.
    Nonsense. A good salesperson can sell anything to anyone.

    You can think somethings completely crap yet still flog it to anyone. That’s what being a good salesperson is about.

    Yep, the sales people in our company rarely have much of an idea what they are selling. That does not matter, though, if you know your client.
    This all sounds like a metaphor for the whole Leave campaign.
This discussion has been closed.