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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the out

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  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980
    malcolmg said:

    Fracking is a crap business, it should be banned. It would be a disaster for Scotland given the amount of mines right across the central belt we would have disastrous environmental issues.
    Don't altogether disagree with that, as it happens. But if the argument extends to oil & gas then its curtains for the yellows in the NE.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    Multiple sources now claiming a deal has been baked, but it's cooling on the window-sill

    I would like to advise some caution. It's not yet on the window-sill, it's still in the heat of the oven.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,114
    Byronic said:

    Imagine, we might go back to a sweeter, more innocent time when we *didn't have to talk about Brexit all day every day*

    It will be like the end of a terrible world war.

    Please let it happen.
    Do you think people might miss the constant drama ? Personally as a political junkie it’s been compulsive viewing but I think it’s time now to move on .
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    HYUFD said:


    Lewis lecturing people about veganism and the environment while taking part in about the most environmentally unfriendly sport going!

    Not to mention flying his dogs around by private jet.
  • Byronic said:

    Looks like the ERG are on board. So that leaves the DUP

    It all depends on figleaves from here - and, of course, that the government has not been saying one thing in London and another in Brussels!

  • Ishmael_Z said:

    The existence of the timeshare and ppi industries rather disproves your point.
    In my 40 years in a sales dominated business I did not need to believe in the product at all and anyone having spent years selling for their living would be astonished if believing in the product was a pre condition for being successful.

    An excellent example is Gerard Ratner until he blew it
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980
    ydoethur said:

    Huh? Who do they depend on then? Without the Greens they would be outnumbered 67-62.
    Malc can't count. Another sad indictment of the failing Scottish education system. A subject, which, incidentally, was not mentioned by La Sturgeon once in her address to the saltire wavers at the conference today.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,402

    Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

    Be careful what you wish for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577

    Any deal of course should be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

    Not happening.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited October 2019
    Yorkcity said:

    Agreed
    Do you realise how mad this sounds?

    We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

    You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

    This is the famous definition of insanity.

    No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

    Remain lost. And there it is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    Byronic said:

    Multiple sources now claiming a deal has been baked, but it's cooling on the window-sill

    Someone left the cake out in the rain
    I don't think that I can take it
    'Cause it took so long to bake it
    And I'll never have that recipe again
    Oh, no
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Jeez. Give over.

    The vote was in 2016. Now we do Brexit. And we move ON.
    Exactly. There was no confirmatory referendum for the terms of the SEA or Maastricht or Rome or Nice. And there should be no confirmatory referendum when we win a Rejoin referendum. Accession terms should be left to parliament.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,402
    Byronic said:

    Do you realise how mad this sounds?

    We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

    You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

    This is the famous definition of insanity.

    No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

    Remain lost. And there it is.
    The British don’t like a bad loser.

    Remain could get hammered in a second referendum, provided there is a credible sensible deal on the table.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,321
    edited October 2019

    Effective dates are a very common concept.
    "Really??? My entire understanding of temporal space has been transformed! Four-dimensional Euclidean geometry has been torn up, thrown in the air and snogged to death! My grasp of the universal constants of temporal reality has been changed...forever."

    Pause.

    "Sorry... I've always wanted to see that done properly..."

    :):)

  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Do you realise how mad this sounds?

    We've coming to the end - maybe - of a three year national nightmare. Suddenly there is light at the end of the night.

    You really want to start it all over again, with added bile, poison and democracy-cancelling, with ANOTHER crazy, divisive referendum, which sends everyone madder than ever??

    This is the famous definition of insanity.

    No, if we are lucky enough to get a deal that parliament can accept, then for fuck's sake we all need to seize it, and draw a line, at long last.

    Remain lost. And there it is.
    Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,032
    edited October 2019

    Malc can't count. Another sad indictment of the failing Scottish education system. A subject, which, incidentally, was not mentioned by La Sturgeon once in her address to the saltire wavers at the conference today.
    Now that Nicola has made Indy 2 this years project it will be interesting to see how the conservatives, labour and the Lib Dems perform in the polls, all of whom are pro Union
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.
    Yes. There is a perfectly sane route to EU membership for the UK. It's called Rejoin.

    We exit, we don't like it, the next Labour/LD govt promises a new vote. They win.

    We could be back in, inside less than a decade, with no terminal and horrible damage done to UK democracy.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228
    If there is a deal but Brexit is delayed beyone the 31st, Johnson will just say "I got Brexit *done* by the 31st, that's what I said would happen all along".
  • Call me an old cynic if you like, but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the government is saying one thing to the ERG in London and something completely different to the EU in Brussels. This is pretty much what May did, of course. At some point, though, the shit has to hit the fan. The difficulty for the ERG is that if they say no to this deal they are waving goodbye to Brexit. That is less of an issue for the DUP, of course.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Byronic said:

    Yes. There is a perfectly sane route to EU membership for the UK. It's called Rejoin.

    We exit, we don't like it, the next Labour/LD govt promises a new vote. They win.

    We could be back in, inside less than a decade, with no terminal and horrible damage done to UK democracy.
    This x1000.

  • It all depends on figleaves from here - and, of course, that the government has not been saying one thing in London and another in Brussels!

    If I'm not entirely mistaken, Mr Johnson will point out to the DUP that they're at liberty to choose between supporting an identified solution now or campaining against it in a NI-only referendum.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.
    Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

    But time will tell.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.

    I doubt we will rejoin. It will be too much hassle for all concerned. After a coupole of years, though, you'd expect things to get quite cuddly.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,114
    Apparently the DUP might be going back to no 10 later this evening for another meeting .

    Not sure whether this is good or bad news for a deal.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    I doubt we will rejoin. It will be too much hassle for all concerned. After a coupole of years, though, you'd expect things to get quite cuddly.

    Yes, quite. And of course the UK's return to the SM and maybe even CU, in an EFTA type deal, has the enormous advantage of *Not requiring a referendum*

    I can easily see the next left government campaigning on this, and winning. And in we go. Could happen within 5 years. Remainers need to calm down, accept the loss of the 2016 vote, and get working on EEA status.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

    But time will tell.
    I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    nico67 said:

    Apparently the DUP might be going back to no 10 later this evening for another meeting .

    Not sure whether this is good or bad news for a deal.

    Sounds bad.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Gabs2 said:

    I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.
    That all depends surely on the EU itself flourishing and growing - economically and politically. Which is far from certain.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,114

    Just think about that. Rejoining means a very different proposition to the one today, and argued from (probably) the position of a secure trade deal with the EU that requires none of that. A large chunk of the current remain vote is more of a vote for the status quo/don’t rock the boat vote. I think, if we leave, we’re unlikely to rejoin.

    But time will tell.
    I agree . I think rejoin would be very unlikely. Perhaps well into the future but the EU won’t want to know unless there’s a big majority for that in the UK.

    As an ardent Remainer I couldn’t sign upto the Euro , I am as pro EU as you can get but totally against the Euro if that makes any sense !
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Gabs2 said:

    I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.
    But we will have adjusted to not paying £12Bn per annum - that will be spent elsewhere.

    Taxes will have to rise or cuts made.

    Plus re employing troughing MEPs.

    Tough sell.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.
    Britain doesn't have to grow very fast to grow faster than Germany, France and Italy, as things stand.
  • Byronic said:

    Yes, quite. And of course the UK's return to the SM and maybe even CU, in an EFTA type deal, has the enormous advantage of *Not requiring a referendum*

    I can easily see the next left government campaigning on this, and winning. And in we go. Could happen within 5 years. Remainers need to calm down, accept the loss of the 2016 vote, and get working on EEA status.

    That will depend on what line the new Johnson administraiton takes on an FTA post-election. As I say down below, with Brexit delivered and the BXP neutered, it could just be that the Tories feel able to return to being the party of business. If that is the case, they will do most of the EFTA/EEA heavy lifting. Johnson's problem may be that his party has turned well to the right and so he may not be able to move away from the course he has set.

  • Gabs2 said:

    Sounds bad.
    It could be either to be honest.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited October 2019
    humbugger said:

    Good evening all. Had the pleasure of listening to Ed Balls speak for half an hour or so earlier today. Perceptive, entertaining and self deprecating much like his book. The contrast between him and the current Labour leadership is marked, and decidedly in his favour.

    Do I detect a whiff of desperation from Remainers on here this afternoon?

    Certainly my opinion of Balls has grown since he left office. He pushed for Labour to adopt different positions to those adopted by Miliband, all of which with hindsight turn out to have been prescient. He described as "stupid" the idea that Labour would fight a general election opposed to the generally popular view that there should be an in-out referendum on EU membership. He wanted the party to avoid committing to HS2 and instead use the £50bn so released on commitments to more popular priorities of the general public. It's now also known that Balls was concerned at Miliband's timid (and self-defeating) attempts to convince the public that Labour would rigidly conform to Conservative borrowing plans. He wanted Labour to make its warning of further Conservative cuts such as those planned to welfare benefits a more central feature of the 2015 campaign, judging that the public had no appetite for another 5 years of austerity, an insight born out by developments since.

    I am not going to get into an argument with those on this site who consider such policies to be wrong. I happen to I think they would have been right - but that is beside the point. The point is that those more populist stances would have helped Labour a great deal in 2015 and could well have made the difference between winning and losing then.
  • TGOHF2 said:

    But we will have adjusted to not paying £12Bn per annum - that will be spent elsewhere.

    Taxes will have to rise or cuts made.

    Plus re employing troughing MEPs.

    Tough sell.

    The £12 billion only becomes a factor if the economy performs in a way that allows current expenditure to be sustained without extra borrowing or higher taxes. If GDP suffers, then the £12 billion will be plugging holes.

  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Britain doesn't have to grow very fast to grow faster than Germany, France and Italy, as things stand.
    Once Britain is out, the Euro countries will be able to get through the necessary reforms to make the Eurozone work better. Then growth will return. And look at the UK economic performance pre- and post-1973.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,864
    I.e. Boris Johnson is the one under pressure.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1184161694412607488?s=21
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,402
    Byronic said:

    Yes. There is a perfectly sane route to EU membership for the UK. It's called Rejoin.

    We exit, we don't like it, the next Labour/LD govt promises a new vote. They win.

    We could be back in, inside less than a decade, with no terminal and horrible damage done to UK democracy.
    Failing to leave would be catastrophic for our democracy.

    I will support any Deal 100%. To the hilt.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365
    Gabs2 said:

    Once Britain is out, the Euro countries will be able to get through the necessary reforms to make the Eurozone work better. Then growth will return. And look at the UK economic performance pre- and post-1973.
    I thought the UK had no veto over what the eurozone countries did?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,587
    Byronic said:

    Yes, quite. And of course the UK's return to the SM and maybe even CU, in an EFTA type deal, has the enormous advantage of *Not requiring a referendum*

    I can easily see the next left government campaigning on this, and winning. And in we go. Could happen within 5 years. Remainers need to calm down, accept the loss of the 2016 vote, and get working on EEA status.
    So long as we can get free movement back, although, of course, no-one can ‘free move’ without a job to go to!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,321
    nico67 said:

    Apparently the DUP might be going back to no 10 later this evening for another meeting .

    Not sure whether this is good or bad news for a deal.

    What time? I've been moving out of Euros into GBP recently (see previous posts) and I wasn't intending to move more tonight, but if DUP add or withdraw their imprimatur, it'll affect the price.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Once Britain is out, the Euro countries will be able to get through the necessary reforms to make the Eurozone work better. Then growth will return. And look at the UK economic performance pre- and post-1973.
    lol. I wish the Europeans well - a growing Europe is good for Britain - but NOTHING they have done indicates the political will is in place to fix the eurozone's problems. Indeed they may be unfixable: they are in the DNA of the project.

    IF we get a deal and if Boris wins a big majority on he back of it (and 5 years in power) I'd offer good money that Britain would grow faster than the big EU three in those years.

    Boris will cut taxes and boost the economy, like Trump.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    TGOHF2 said:

    But we will have adjusted to not paying £12Bn per annum - that will be spent elsewhere.

    Taxes will have to rise or cuts made.

    Plus re employing troughing MEPs.

    Tough sell.
    "Which hospitals would you close in order to go back into the EU, Rejoiners?"
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    lol. I wish the Europeans well - a growing Europe is good for Britain - but NOTHING they have done indicates the political will is in place to fix the eurozone's problems. Indeed they may be unfixable: they are in the DNA of the project.

    IF we get a deal and if Boris wins a big majority on he back of it (and 5 years in power) I'd offer good money that Britain would grow faster than the big EU three in those years.

    Boris will cut taxes and boost the economy, like Trump.
    Manufacturing in the US is already in recession. Tax cuts are a sugar high that dies out quickly, as Trump is now finding. Eurosceptics have claimed the demise of the Euro is just around the corner for almost a decade. They haven't been right yet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365

    "Which hospitals would you close in order to go back into the EU, Rejoiners?"
    I can see the slogans now... "We spend £350mn/week on our NHS. Let's spend it on Eastern Europe instead."
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Gabs2 said:

    I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.
    And their friends the racists of Bulgaria?

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    I.e. Boris Johnson is the one under pressure.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1184161694412607488?s=21

    I dunno; Boris: “Nice province you’ve got there. Shame if a border poll should happen to it.”
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited October 2019

    And their friends the racists of Bulgaria?

    I am a Jewish football fan. Are you trying to convince me we don't have racism among English crowds?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,114
    viewcode said:

    What time? I've been moving out of Euros into GBP recently (see previous posts) and I wasn't intending to move more tonight, but if DUP add or withdraw their imprimatur, it'll affect the price.
    It’s on polhome , not confirmed yet . It might not happen .
  • nico67 said:

    Apparently the DUP might be going back to no 10 later this evening for another meeting .

    Not sure whether this is good or bad news for a deal.

    They're just popping in to hand back the £1 billion we gave them by mistake.
  • Byronic said:

    Yes, quite. And of course the UK's return to the SM and maybe even CU, in an EFTA type deal, has the enormous advantage of *Not requiring a referendum*

    I can easily see the next left government campaigning on this, and winning. And in we go. Could happen within 5 years. Remainers need to calm down, accept the loss of the 2016 vote, and get working on EEA status.
    The Customs Union will be a non starter for reasons I have explained on here too many times before
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Manufacturing in the US is already in recession. Tax cuts are a sugar high that dies out quickly, as Trump is now finding. Eurosceptics have claimed the demise of the Euro is just around the corner for almost a decade. They haven't been right yet.
    I've always said the sceptics were delusional about the euro collapsing.

    The problem is a mirror image of Brussels' misunderstanding of Britain.

    The British don't comprehend how much the euro means to the elites across the continent. It is the guarantor of EU unity and peace. No one can leave the currency, so they are all locked in it together (sometimes nightmarishly so). it is now the primary symbol of European-ness.

    It would take a major global war to change that. Maybe not even then. Alien invasion maybe.

    And now I have to go and pack for New Orleans. Bon soir.



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    This would be awful if having worked for AQA I didn’t know it’s the tip of a truly dreadful iceberg.

    https://www.tes.com/news/aqas-gcse-and-level-blunders
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    RobD said:

    I can see the slogans now... "We spend £350mn/week on our NHS. Let's spend it on Eastern Europe instead."
    No. We will just spend a proportion of the billions we get from extra GDP on that, plus have a huge amount leftover for the NHS.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Gabs2 said:

    Manufacturing in the US is already in recession. Tax cuts are a sugar high that dies out quickly, as Trump is now finding. Eurosceptics have claimed the demise of the Euro is just around the corner for almost a decade. They haven't been right yet.
    “Tax cuts are a sugar high”

    Er...
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    I am a Jewish football fan. Are you trying to convince me we don't have racism among English crowds?
    Of course we do. Shamefully.

    What we don’t have (thankfully) is England fans at Wembley giving the Nazi salute in international qualifiers.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    What is this wonderful deal that people are coalescing around? It is a disgrace that anybody signs up for a deal which is worse than the one we currently have. Supporting any deal just to get it over is insane and close to criminal.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377

    Certainly my opinion of Balls has grown since he left office. He pushed for Labour to adopt different positions to those adopted by Miliband, all of which with hindsight turn out to have been prescient. He described as "stupid" the idea that Labour would fight a general election opposed to the generally popular view that there should be an in-out referendum on EU membership. He wanted the party to avoid committing to HS2 and instead use the £50bn so released on commitments to more popular priorities of the general public. It's now also known that Balls was concerned at Miliband's timid (and self-defeating) attempts to convince the public that Labour would rigidly conform to Conservative borrowing plans. He wanted Labour to make its warning of further Conservative cuts such as those planned to welfare benefits a more central feature of the 2015 campaign, judging that the public had no appetite for another 5 years of austerity, an insight born out by developments since.

    I am not going to get into an argument with those on this site who consider such policies to be wrong. I happen to I think they would have been right - but that is beside the point. The point is that those more populist stances would have helped Labour a great deal in 2015 and could well have made the difference between winning and losing then.
    He made a number of interesting observations. Clearly he's very proud of the role he played in keeping the UK out of the Euro and in achieving BOE independence and the minimum wage. Those comments were in the context of reforms/views which are now more or less embedded in the national consensus. He mentioned the Trade Union reforms of the 1970's in the same section!

    One of his main themes was around the huge benefits of achieving consensus between the 2 main parties. I found this rather ironic given that his mentor, Gordon Brown, was intent on destroying the Tory party.

    He's a good listen, and although I'd be most unlikely to vote Labour I'd welcome him back into politics. He speaks enthusiastically about the power of politicians to do good and I sensed we've not seen the last of him on the political stage.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365
    nichomar said:

    What is this wonderful deal that people are coalescing around? It is a disgrace that anybody signs up for a deal which is worse than the one we currently have. Supporting any deal just to get it over is insane and close to criminal.

    The current one was rejected in a referendum. Perhaps you missed it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?

    No.

    There’s no need for nineteen of them. Jeremy Corbyn’s doing perfectly well on his own.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Gabs2 said:

    No. We will just spend a proportion of the billions we get from extra GDP on that, plus have a huge amount leftover for the NHS.
    Sure everyone knows raising taxes to send to Albania raises GDP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,587
    Gabs2 said:

    I am a Jewish football fan. Are you trying to convince me we don't have racism among English crowds?
    That’s the problem with going to Spurs away games. It’s sometimes surprising what people can find offensive in the away teams or fans.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    The current one was rejected in a referendum. Perhaps you missed it?
    Well tell me what this better deal is?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?

    The main thing killing the Labour Party right now is Brexit. The Party is standing in the middle of the road and getting hit by cars going both ways. Taking Brexit off the table forces the politics back onto economics, public services and inequality, where the Tories are much, much weaker.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    RobD said:

    I can see the slogans now... "We spend £350mn/week on our NHS. Let's spend it on Eastern Europe instead."
    On the side of a bus. We know it works.....
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    edited October 2019

    Manufacturing in the US is already in recession. Tax cuts are a sugar high that dies out quickly, as Trump is now finding. Eurosceptics have claimed the demise of the Euro is just around the corner for almost a decade. They haven't been right yet.

    “Tax cuts are a sugar high”

    Er...

    And, of course, QE and negative interest rates are such a sustainable diet for an economy.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,114
    nichomar said:

    What is this wonderful deal that people are coalescing around? It is a disgrace that anybody signs up for a deal which is worse than the one we currently have. Supporting any deal just to get it over is insane and close to criminal.

    The deal is crap compared to anything we have now and likely the FTA won’t be up to much if the Tories stay in charge but as a Remainer the choices on offer are either a deal and orderly exit with an election deciding what the future relationship might look like or a no deal catastrophe.

    Because sorry to say my faith in the public not voting for the Tories on a no deal platform isn’t great .

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    Gabs2 said:

    The main thing killing the Labour Party right now is Brexit. The Party is standing in the middle of the road and getting hit by cars going both ways. Taking Brexit off the table forces the politics back onto economics, public services and inequality, where the Tories are much, much weaker.
    On that basis, Labour would vote for any deal. No brainer.

    Yet......
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Gabs2 said:

    The main thing killing the Labour Party right now is Brexit. The Party is standing in the middle of the road and getting hit by cars going both ways. Taking Brexit off the table forces the politics back onto economics, public services and inequality, where the Tories are much, much weaker.
    Having an utterly useless and despised leader doesn’t help either.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    TGOHF2 said:

    Sure everyone knows raising taxes to send to Albania raises GDP.
    Why don't you compare UK exports to the A10 economies now to 20 years ago?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,587
    nichomar said:

    Well tell me what this better deal is?
    Handing NornIreland over to the Republic?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,365

    Handing NornIreland over to the Republic?
    Surely that's a matter for the people of NI?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Why don't you compare UK exports to the A10 economies now to 20 years ago?
    https://images.app.goo.gl/PRWZA8Kp95Qic7D96
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    I disagree. I think this is fundamentally a matter of identity. And younger Brits are far more likely to see themselves as akin to their friends from Poland, Sweden and France. If Brexit Britain turns out to be a slower growing country, pressure will build and build for Rejoin.
    I think we are all tempted to think others see the world through our own prism. On that basis, I may Be wrong, but I don’t think you’re describing the views of plumbing apprentices, car mechanics, junior soldiers, or my local hairdressers. I don’t think most of those “ younger Brits” feel particularly European. I don’t disagree there’s a group who feel as you suggest; but I think it’s a subset. I think most won’t want to think about Europe again for a long time.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Gabs2 said:

    The main thing killing the Labour Party right now is Brexit. The Party is standing in the middle of the road and getting hit by cars going both ways. Taking Brexit off the table forces the politics back onto economics, public services and inequality, where the Tories are much, much weaker.
    If Johnson really gets this done, he can look forward to 400 Tory MPs at the next GE. Even the ERG will be neutered.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    A deal must be imminent. Channel 4 news not leading on Brexit.....
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    TGOHF2 said:

    https://images.app.goo.gl/PRWZA8Kp95Qic7D96
    Now do it with the A10 as a share of UK GDP. Richer countries make better trade partners.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    A deal must be imminent. Channel 4 news not leading on Brexit.....

    The Russians "calling the shots" in Syria, according to C4 News.
  • Reading the tea leaves, the question arises: will 20 Labour MPs hand Johnson a landslide victory at the next GE ?

    Two questions:

    (i) If 20 Labour MPs help the deal over the line, who will be able to force a GE and when will they be able to do this?

    (ii) If Mr Johnson is being perceived by many to have sacrificed NI to neverending vassaldom, will he really win in a landslide?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Anyone able to tell us how long the transition is in their wonderful deal? I think it’s still 31/21/2020 so we now have 14 months to negotiate the next stage, over.... it hasn’t even begun.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    I think we are all tempted to think others see the world through our own prism. On that basis, I may Be wrong, but I don’t think you’re describing the views of plumbing apprentices, car mechanics, junior soldiers, or my local hairdressers. I don’t think most of those “ younger Brits” feel particularly European. I don’t disagree there’s a group who feel as you suggest; but I think it’s a subset. I think most won’t want to think about Europe again for a long time.
    You will increasingly find Lithuanians and Romanians work side by side with young working class Brits in those barber shops and garages. I hear more and more Poles displaying features of cockney accents. Eastern Europeans are integrating into the British working class, just as Afro-Caribbean people did before them. They will intermingle and intermarry and increasingly have in-laws from Tallinn and Naples.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:

    Sure everyone knows raising taxes to send to Albania raises GDP.
    https://twitter.com/futureidentity/status/1180801285953597440?s=20

    https://twitter.com/futureidentity/status/1180802882339254272?s=20
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244

    Failing to leave would be catastrophic for our democracy.
    I've heard so much about "our democracy" on this site over the last few years. I'm hoping that when this Brexit stuff is over we might actually get one of these democracy things. You know, with votes that actually count no matter where you live.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gabs2 said:

    Losses are temporary. Demographics are on our side.
    I think the opposite is true. All the data shows that populism is more popular with younger age groups in most countries. Older voters are most likely to believe in forging consensus.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268


    If Johnson really gets this done, he can look forward to 400 Tory MPs at the next GE. Even the ERG will be neutered.
    Nope. The public never give credit for what is done. They want to focus on what is next. Ask Winston Churchill. The question for Labour is if they want Brexit to be the pressing general election decision or public services.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    1) - The SNP will never have a better time for a GE

    2) - The Lib Dems may try amendments but any change would not be possible without legislation that would not have time

    3) - As has been said the cross benchers would see it pass

    But do you not think for one minute how this would portay labour, the official opposition doing everything possible to prevent facing the electorate

    Cowardice and being frit all in one

    The British don’t like a bad loser.

    Remain could get hammered in a second referendum, provided there is a credible sensible deal on the table.
    COULD
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    I've heard so much about "our democracy" on this site over the last few years. I'm hoping that when this Brexit stuff is over we might actually get one of these democracy things. You know, with votes that actually count no matter where you live.
    Like the EU referendum ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292
    Gabs2 said:

    Once Britain is out, the Euro countries will be able to get through the necessary reforms to make the Eurozone work better. Then growth will return. And look at the UK economic performance pre- and post-1973.
    I think that throughout the EU including the UK, we are entering a period with long term anaemic growth compared to previous decades. This is due to a mix of demographics and of temporal trends. Long term trend growth of 1-1.5% will be fairly typical. Growing out of debt and slowdowns will be difficult.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TGOHF2 said:
    Really reliable unbiased source then, can she tell us what the deal is rather than spout shit?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    nichomar said:

    Really reliable unbiased source then, can she tell us what the deal is rather than spout shit?
    It’s an astonishing claim and totally implausible.

    Does anyone really believe Nadine Dorries is on speaking terms with any Labour MPs?

    However, it wouldn’t surprise me if she was right. When Labour reject heir own proposals as meaningless drivel you know all they care about is themselves, as befits a bunch of third rate fat cat stooges who got here by family wealth and contacts.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482


    If Johnson really gets this done, he can look forward to 400 Tory MPs at the next GE. Even the ERG will be neutered.
    I'm far from sure about that.

    If Boris gets the deal done and gets parliament to agree then it is a big achievement. Someone here pointed out that the country didn't rally behind Churchill post ww2. The well known 'very effective' response to Clem.

    He will have done well though, and all but the ghasts will accept that. The Queen's Speech was interesting - there was good stuff. It's what's there that'll probably count most.

    Labour, as exemplared by the wibbling Kinnock Jnr on the BBC at the moment have been total fuckwits in all of this.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    They could form the National Labour Party, put in Caroline Flint as leader, and decimate Corbyn at the next election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573
    TGOHF2 said:
    Think we need a second source on that one.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Gabs2 said:

    They could form the National Labour Party, put in Caroline Flint as leader, and decimate Corbyn at the next election.
    Wouldn't a name with "Labour" in it be disallowed by the Electoral Commission though? I suppose they could call themselves National Socialists...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    rpjs said:

    Wouldn't a name with "Labour" in it be disallowed by the Electoral Commission though? I suppose they could call themselves National Socialists...
    Unless Naz Shah, Chris Williamson and Ken Livingstone join them that would be disallowed under the Trades Description Act.
This discussion has been closed.