The last three and a bit years on here have been like entries for a 6th form essay contest titled
"Imagine you are someone with a highly strung temperament who has had the good fortune to have got their own way for most of their life, but just lost an argument with a person less academically able and financially well off than them"
Yes. But it wasn't an argument. It was a set of promises which those less academically able believed and which those more academically able were highly suspicious of.
and yet the less academically gifted managed to find a polling station in greater numbers than the gifted
If you are less academically gifted and get an opportunity to a) kick the dog; and b) stick it to the man then who wouldn't motivate themselves to get down the road to the library to do so.
It was of course a huge failing of the Remain campaign not to allow for and address the fact that morons will act moronically.
one would have thought the gifted might have done enough not to make the hoi polloi kick the dog.
I assume you second comment refers to Osborne;s camapign management ?
The gifted tried this.
As that sage of our times put it: "That would be like arguing with a pigeon. You can tell it that you are right and it is wrong, but it's still going to shit in your hair."
"the root cause of their problems were home grown"
so the gifted in effect said were fking you vote for us
Im beginning to wonder who the gifted are in this scenario.
Well given that "the political class" has been in power in the UK for centuries the alternative was a different political system but I'm not sure voting Leave was ever going to achieve that. That would have required some other form, perhaps of direct action and was certainly nothing to do with an in/out EU referendum.
We'll still end up wth the same political class, all the vote will do is make them recalibrate whats important but that in its own way is progress.
Where you come from the effect of Brexit could be to get a different political class with D4 accents.
Right. Is that meant to rile me or something, because really it just looks stupid.
It's not meant to have any particular effect on you, but I do think you are guilty of what you accuse others of, namely caricaturing the other side and wilfully ignoring the complexity of the question.
Hardcore remainers (quite a few on this site) really do not care about the referendum result.. ... Not really. EEA+CU WILL work. EEA + comprehensive FTA will probably work too
Hello, Hardcore Remainer here. I have often said that EEA would work providing that a special transfer mechanism was agreed first. If Mrs May had spent time getting the EEA & EU to agree a one-off transfer where all the treaties were arranged so that we left one day and the next day signed the EEA paperwork then it could be done.
Diehard Leavers, and plenty of them on this site, will say that the EEA is not Leaving.
So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.
Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...
FFS what a joke
So you think that the right way to ramp down fossil fuel use is.. to start to exploit extra sources?
A lot of people live in the fracking target areas, broadly defined - not surprisingly, as the Carboniferous strata powered the Industrial Revolution. Interestingly, thsi seems to include at least part of the constituency of Ms Swinson, who appears to have supported fracking [possibly as a Coalition member, but hey ...] and (edit: reportedly) to have financial support from that quarter.
There's a good point in there. North Sea oil, which by the way does need to stay in the ground, at least has the benefit of being well away from people's homes.
If I had voted on the expectation of a cushiony soft Brexit, where little changed except law making was more controlled by Westminster, less by Brussels, the closest thing resembling my choice would still be Leave, of any hue.
I think that's what a lot of people thought they were voting for.
I think a lot of them believed the crap they read on the sides of buses. Their is no cure for stupidity.
So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.
Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...
FFS what a joke
So you think that the right way to ramp down fossil fuel use is.. to start to exploit extra sources?
A lot of people live in the fracking target areas, broadly defined - not surprisingly, as the Carboniferous strata powered the Industrial Revolution. Interestingly, thsi seems to include at least part of the constituency of Ms Swinson, who appears to have supported fracking [possibly as a Coalition member, but hey ...] and (edit: reportedly) to have financial support from that quarter.
There's a good point in there. North Sea oil, which by the way does need to stay in the ground, at least has the benefit of being well away from people's homes.
Quite. I live in one of the former coal mining basins, so I tend to keep an eye on the situation!!
The last three and a bit years on here have been like entries for a 6th form essay contest titled
"Imagine you are someone with a highly strung temperament who has had the good fortune to have got their own way for most of their life, but just lost an argument with a person less academically able and financially well off than them"
That's brilliant.
*applauds*
Thank you
Sadly most of yours and other Brexiteers attempts at answering other essay questions on the same subject matter would give you the same sort of result as Corbyn famously got for his A Levels
Boris Johnson 'on brink of Brexit deal' after border concessions Negotiators understood to have agreed in principle to customs border down Irish Sea
Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.
A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.
It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
If I had voted on the expectation of a cushiony soft Brexit, where little changed except law making was more controlled by Westminster, less by Brussels, the closest thing resembling my choice would still be Leave, of any hue.
I think that's what a lot of people thought they were voting for.
I think a lot of them believed the crap they read on the sides of buses. Their is no cure for stupidity.
You said it, not I. If I were to agree with you, I'd only be accused of arrogance again.
Hardcore remainers (quite a few on this site) really do not care about the referendum result.. ... Not really. EEA+CU WILL work. EEA + comprehensive FTA will probably work too
Hello, Hardcore Remainer here. I have often said that EEA would work providing that a special transfer mechanism was agreed first. If Mrs May had spent time getting the EEA & EU to agree a one-off transfer where all the treaties were arranged so that we left one day and the next day signed the EEA paperwork then it could be done.
Diehard Leavers, and plenty of them on this site, will say that the EEA is not Leaving.
I think you've messed up the blockquotes there, cos I didn't say that
Dadge said: "The campaign definitely affected the outcome. Polls from the time show that support for Leave increased during the campaign."
Sorry - I`ll be clearer - the campaign did affect the res in their lives.
I`ve always tho country`s wishes.
Of course the lies (or, if you pre cosy free trade agreement with the EU.
The reassurances, whether menda them out of history.
Youre back touting the wallet argu priorities.
No, that's wrong. It was a gateway argument: lots of people wanted
youre simply seeking to discount the probability
If we had a second referendum remain would still lose the economic argument because you cant communicate reasonably.
Wealthy people had the luxury to vote on values, it is undoubtedly true - and that applies to both the Leave and Remain votes. But what is objecting to large scale EU immigration because it drives down salaries and makes housing less affordable if it is not an economic argument?
you told me consistently it was racism. Are you now changing your mind ?
I very specifically never said that, though I can see why you would have wanted me to. So, what kind of argument is high EU immigration reduces wages and makes housing kess affordable if it is not an economic one?
Though by and large those were spurious reasons. With the exception of the Fens, Leave voting areas were very often ones with low EU immigration and low house prices. Places like Copeland and the Welsh valleys. Less so the older Shire home owning Leaver demographic, but by and large those are not communities under economic strain.
Areas with high EU immigration and high house prices were often strongly Remain. This is because immigration, house prices and Remain voting all correlate with economic success.
Where are the figures for EU immigration by town/borough or constituency?
So in 2016 there were 6046 new NI numbers issued to migrants in Brighton and Hove (pop 16-64 of 203,119) compared to 202 for 57,674 in Hartlepool, 5053 for 88,476 in Cambridge, 63 for 42,509 in Copeland etc etc
Boris Johnson 'on brink of Brexit deal' after border concessions Negotiators understood to have agreed in principle to customs border down Irish Sea
Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.
A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.
It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
Alastair said: "The odds on a 2019 election have shot out this afternoon. This morning they were trading at or below evens. A 2019 election was last matched at 2.7."
Can get 3.2 on a Dec GE now. What`s causing this move? A Dec GE is no less likely than it was this morning is it?
If I had voted on the expectation of a cushiony soft Brexit, where little changed except law making was more controlled by Westminster, less by Brussels, the closest thing resembling my choice would still be Leave, of any hue.
I think that's what a lot of people thought they were voting for.
I think a lot of them believed the crap they read on the sides of buses. Their is no cure for stupidity.
You said it, not I. If I were to agree with you, I'd only be accused of arrogance again.
Judging by the responses of our Leavers, it's clear that the Vote Leave campaign didn't correctly reflect the arguments for leaving the EU. That seems a pretty incontrovertible argument for scrapping the result and starting again, does it not?
There might be an argument for scrapping the result and starting again if there was a dedicated effort to address the underlying reasons for the huge leave vote, that could be shown to be possible within the confines of the EU.
However, there is no desire, either in Parliament or on these boards, to grapple with these difficult questions. Instead those seeking to overturn the vote prefer to accuse the entire leave voting population as either thick, or racist, or corrupt, which merely widens the divisions, and, I'm afraid, shows those making such accusations to be more narrow minded, bigoted and prejudiced than those they accuse. Which is why these boards have been so depressing to read for so long and why I rarely contribute.
I was a remain voter, and remain enormously receptive to the idea of remaining in a way that does not further fracture our society - that I've heard nothing remotely convincing in over 3 years is genuinely depressing.
I have asked time and again what Remain obsessives would do to address the concerns of the 17.4m (minus the deaths they cheer so heartily) who voted to Leave, were the result to be overturned....
...
...
It may or may not interest you to know that I am planning a header that tries to address this issue.
In the meanwhile this article - from over 3 years ago (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/) - did try to start thinking about what might be done to address the concerns of those who voted Leave if Brexit continued. It is some Brexiteers themselves who seem utterly indifferent to those concerns.
Even under the circumstance it was still a very dumb response. Self harm may gain attention, but it is never a great way of improving your general conditions.
I disagree that it is self harm. But even if there were aspects that were harmful, you are still jettisoning a huge, huge source of patronage - of hard-earned tax payer cash being lifted up and away, and eventually finding its way into the pockets of assiduous supporters of the project. Company directorships and appointments to the Lords can't hold a candle to the EU. For that to be removed from UK politics is a major victory for people 'like wot we are', and a devastating blow for many a politician - which they're not taking particularly well.
So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.
Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...
FFS what a joke
So you think that the right way to ramp down fossil fuel use is.. to start to exploit extra sources?
A lot of people live in the fracking target areas, broadly defined - not surprisingly, as the Carboniferous strata powered the Industrial Revolution. Interestingly, thsi seems to include at least part of the constituency of Ms Swinson, who appears to have supported fracking [possibly as a Coalition member, but hey ...] and (edit: reportedly) to have financial support from that quarter.
There's a good point in there. North Sea oil, which by the way does need to stay in the ground, at least has the benefit of being well away from people's homes.
And those made interesting reading too recently - basically, Scottish basins are too bitty, not cooked enough.
I think realistically Thursday 5th December is the last possible date for an election until late February/early March.
When would the election have to be called by for 5th December?
Via a vote of no confidence? Thursday.
Via a 2/3rds vote? Halloween.
Thanks. So basically if an election isn't agreed by 1st November that's it until the end of Febaury/early March.
Not necessarily. An election could be announced in mid- December with Polling Day set for 23rd or 30th January.
I can't see people wanting to risk the last two weeks of January and first two weeks of February (traditionally the coldest four weeks of the year) on an election.
If an election doesn't happen by 5th December I really think the window closes until end of February/early March or more likely next Spring.
Whats the earliest date of a GE i.e. if a vote in parliament were held today? I think i have read 5 weeks is the minimum length of campaign? I find FTPA and all that flows from it is in need of clarification.
Boris Johnson 'on brink of Brexit deal' after border concessions Negotiators understood to have agreed in principle to customs border down Irish Sea
Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.
A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.
It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.
Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...
FFS what a joke
YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
I think I need to do a piece on how Brexit has had terrible consequences for analogies. In the old days, we had good, believable, informative analogies and metaphors.
Alastair said: "The odds on a 2019 election have shot out this afternoon. This morning they were trading at or below evens. A 2019 election was last matched at 2.7."
Can get 3.2 on a Dec GE now. What`s causing this move? A Dec GE is no less likely than it was this morning is it?
If a deal is agreed labour will be running very scared of an election
So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.
Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...
FFS what a joke
So you think that the right way to ramp down fossil fuel use is.. to start to exploit extra sources?
A lot of people live in the fracking target areas, broadly defined - not surprisingly, as the Carboniferous strata powered the Industrial Revolution. Interestingly, thsi seems to include at least part of the constituency of Ms Swinson, who appears to have supported fracking [possibly as a Coalition member, but hey ...] and (edit: reportedly) to have financial support from that quarter.
There's a good point in there. North Sea oil, which by the way does need to stay in the ground, at least has the benefit of being well away from people's homes.
And those made interesting reading too recently - basically, Scottish basins are too bitty, not cooked enough.
As someone who has spent almost all their life in London I can assure you there are numerous boroughs in London with high house prices, high immigration and limited success. The same applies to many Major UK Cities. The home counties are a more desirable place to live than London on many measurements and yet had a majority leave vote.
How much of that expanation is simply age? I.e., cities are typically younger than shires. And young people were much more likely to vote Remain than older ones.
I seem to remember a demographic prediction that the population would shift from Leave to Remain but cannot think whether it is 2020 or 2021. I thought it was mid 2020 but i could be wrong and of course this does not take into account a fundamental political shift.
So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.
Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...
FFS what a joke
YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
Not at all. It's like the difference between quarrying Arthur's Seat [big hill in central Edinburgh, though I'm pretty sure you know it, and yes they tried to do it] and quarrying somewhere out in the Lothian countryside. Doesn't bear on the pros and cons of quarrying in general.
Cameron should have sacked Penny Mordaunt - on the spot - when she refused to clarify that we have a veto on Turkey joining.
Ever since then, there's been no accountability for outright lying and it's just grown and grown to where it hardly matters what the vote was actually won on.
A crucial moment of weakness.
I was going to make a point about outright lying in relation to rights for EU citizens where the reality falls well short of the rhetoric from the Johnson Ministry.
How do we make lying something that costs a politician their job?
Ban manifestos and hustings? All of the new Lib Dem recruits would be out of a job (and into another cushy one)
There are three types of things that people lie about.
1. They lie about the reality of the world as it is. Lying about now. 2. They lie about what they have done. Lying about the past. 3. They lie about what they intend to do. Lying about the future.
Manifestos are only lies about the future. We need to tackle all three types of lies.
As someone who has spent almost all their life in London I can assure you there are numerous boroughs in London with high house prices, high immigration and limited success. The same applies to many Major UK Cities. The home counties are a more desirable place to live than London on many measurements and yet had a majority leave vote.
How much of that expanation is simply age? I.e., cities are typically younger than shires. And young people were much more likely to vote Remain than older ones.
Far too much time has been spent considering northern working class Leavers and nowhere near enough considering southern affluent reactionaries.
If a deal is offered, there will be an absolute explosion in the hysteria fireworks factory of ultra-lunatic Remainerism.
Jolyon Maugham might literally explode, like a watermelon in a microwave. Ian Dunt will be turned into a piece of glowing charcoal on the roof of Chernobyl.
I think I need to do a piece on how Brexit has had terrible consequences for analogies. In the old days, we had good, believable, informative analogies and metaphors.
Now, it's a mess.
Brexit has busted analogies.
Like when you go out to buy a pound of apples and end up getting a haircut.
Judging by the responses of our Leavers, it's clear that the Vote Leave campaign didn't correctly reflect the arguments for leaving the EU. That seems a pretty incontrovertible argument for scrapping the result and starting again, does it not?
There might be an argument for scrapping the result and starting again if there was a dedicated effort to address the underlying reasons for the huge leave vote, that could be shown to be possible within the confines of the EU.
I was a remain voter, and remain enormously receptive to the idea of remaining in a way that does not further fracture our society - that I've heard nothing remotely convincing in over 3 years is genuinely depressing.
I have asked time and again what Remain obsessives would do to address the concerns of the 17.4m (minus the deaths they cheer so heartily) who voted to Leave, were the result to be overturned....
...
...
It may or may not interest you to know that I am planning a header that tries to address this issue.
In the meanwhile this article - from over 3 years ago (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/) - did try to start thinking about what might be done to address the concerns of those who voted Leave if Brexit continued. It is some Brexiteers themselves who seem utterly indifferent to those concerns.
Yes it seems to ask the question... if the result were overturned, do you think anything would be done? Without a stop to FoM, I dont think it can be.
The last three and a bit years on here have been like entries for a 6th form essay contest titled
"Imagine you are someone with a highly strung temperament who has had the good fortune to have got their own way for most of their life, but just lost an argument with a person less academically able and financially well off than them"
Yes. But it wasn't an argument. It was a set of promises which those less academically able believed and which those more academically able were highly suspicious of.
and yet the less academically gifted managed to find a polling station in greater numbers than the gifted
If you are less academically gifted and get an opportunity to a) kick the dog; and b) stick it to the man then who wouldn't motivate themselves to get down the road to the library to do so.
It was of course a huge failing of the Remain campaign not to allow for and address the fact that morons will act moronically.
one would have thought the gifted might have done enough not to make the hoi polloi kick the dog.
I assume you second comment refers to Osborne;s camapign management ?
The gifted tried to explain that really, the EU was not responsible for the woes that hoi polloi were facing and that the root cause of their problems were home grown. But, being academically less able, the academically less able were unable to understand this.
As that sage of our times put it: "That would be like arguing with a pigeon. You can tell it that you are right and it is wrong, but it's still going to shit in your hair."
Actually, the 'less gifted' were right to take the opportunity that came. You're correct, the problem was mainly due to our own politicians - elsewhere in the EU, national interests are fiercely defended, irksome regulations are quietly ignored etc. And even Juncker himself offered the UK semi-detached status. Cameron ignored the offer because he thought he could permanently tether the UK to the EU, hook line and sinker.
But the public weren't given the opportunity to vote in a referendum with an option to rid the UK of supine, venal, elitist politicians, and replace them with hardworking, patriotic, democratic (basically Swiss) ones. They were given the opportunity to take the ball away and leave the EU. And in the circumstances, that was the right response.
Why did the UK choose to elect "supine, venal, elitist politicians" and then to kick them a year later?
Because broadly speaking no others were available.
I think I need to do a piece on how Brexit has had terrible consequences for analogies. In the old days, we had good, believable, informative analogies and metaphors.
Now, it's a mess.
Brexit has busted analogies.
Like when you go out to buy a pound of apples and end up getting a haircut.
Re the DUP, paisley just intervened in the HoC to say what a change it is for the EU to be rewriting the WA.... gave no indication they are set against what is being discussed (theyll have more of an idea than us after last night)
I think I need to do a piece on how Brexit has had terrible consequences for analogies. In the old days, we had good, believable, informative analogies and metaphors.
Now, it's a mess.
Brexit has busted analogies.
Like when you go out to buy a pound of apples and end up getting a haircut.
The only sensible thing to do right now is sit back and await developments. It's not clear whether there is the outline of a deal, the basis of a deal, what such a hypothetical deal might entail and (given the absence of any content of that hypothetical deal) whether it is sellable to any of the interested parties. So, like Stanley Baldwin, we'll have to wait and see.
If a deal is offered, there will be an absolute explosion in the hysteria fireworks factory of ultra-lunatic Remainerism.
Jolyon Maugham might literally explode, like a watermelon in a microwave. Ian Dunt will be turned into a piece of glowing charcoal on the roof of Chernobyl.
Mason is just the first to go super-critical.
Maugham will activate his Big Book Of Lawyers Tricks And Bedtime Tales
I think I need to do a piece on how Brexit has had terrible consequences for analogies. In the old days, we had good, believable, informative analogies and metaphors.
Now, it's a mess.
Brexit has busted analogies.
Just imagine what a lot of trouble and angst Mr Cameron would have saved us if he'd allowed contingency plans to be laid for a Leave vote.
On PB alone, it would have reduced the volume of comments by at least half.
Or perhaps, rather than arguing what a vote for Leave meant, we'd have spent all our energy arguing that the contingency plan wasn't the best way to set about it.
Big_G said: "If a deal is agreed labour will be running very scared of an election"
I think we have danced round this already. If a deal - Farage say BINO - BXT split Tory vote - Lab have decent chance of getting most seats in GE
If Boris pulls this off, and it is a huge if, it will be his Falklands moment
Anyone could stuff NI and get a deal , it has always been there but was a complete NONO until the shysters got in. Will have big repercussions elsewhere in UK.
Dadge said: "The campaign definitely affected the outcome. Polls from the time show that support for Leave increased during the campaign."
Sorry - I`ll be clearer - the campaign did affect the res in their lives.
I`ve always tho country`s wishes.
Of course the lies (or, if you pre cosy free trade agreement with the EU.
The reassurances, whether menda them out of history.
Youre back touting the wallet argu priorities.
No, that's wrong. It was a gateway argument: lots of people wanted
youre simply seeking to discount the probability
If we had a second referendum remain would still lose the economic argument because you cant communicate reasonably.
Wealthy people had the luxury to vote on values, it is undoubtedly true - and that applies to both the Leave and Remain votes. But what is objecting to large scale EU immigration because it drives down salaries and makes housing less affordable if it is not an economic argument?
you told me consistently it was racism. Are you now changing your mind ?
I very specifically never said that, though I can see why you would have wanted me to. So, what kind of argument is high EU immigration reduces wages and makes housing kess affordable if it is not an economic one?
Though by and large those were spurious
Where are the figures for EU immigration by town/borough or constituency?
So in 2016 there were 6046 new NI numbers issued to migrants in Brighton and Hove (pop 16-64 of 203,119) compared to 202 for 57,674 in Hartlepool, 5053 for 88,476 in Cambridge, 63 for 42,509 in Copeland etc etc
EU Migrants?
New NI numbers issued to migrants, which is a reasonable proxy.
So 3774 for 41,118 in Boston, 5375 for 123,937 in Peterborough
15,484 for the entirety of Wales 1,921,434
Of which 4525 were for Cardiff (244,293), only 156 for Blanau Gwent (43,811)
Big_G said: "If a deal is agreed labour will be running very scared of an election"
I think we have danced round this already. If a deal - Farage say BINO - BXT split Tory vote - Lab have decent chance of getting most seats in GE
If Boris pulls this off, and it is a huge if, it will be his Falklands moment
It is the mixture of partisan triumphalism and vilification that makes compromise impossible. If Boris pulls this off he deserves credit but he still caused vast lost growth by the brinkmanship and uncertainty he brought.
Where are the figures for EU immigration by town/borough or constituency?
I suspect it's all anecdotes until we get a census. There was a report a couple of years ago that supermarket sales pointed to a population millions more than the government was reporting but 10 seconds of googling can't find it.,
A supermarket (I forget which) was attempting to get a merger approved by the competition authority, and used an increased population as a reason why they needed additional scale.
The problem with this theory is that wasn't bourne out by the supermarket's own sales numbers.
Boris Johnson 'on brink of Brexit deal' after border concessions Negotiators understood to have agreed in principle to customs border down Irish Sea
Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.
A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.
It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
He added, "Looking back I could have played it differently. Won a few more moments who can tell. But it took time to understand the man. Now at least I know I know him well. He needs his fantasy and freedom..."
If a deal is offered, there will be an absolute explosion in the hysteria fireworks factory of ultra-lunatic Remainerism.
Jolyon Maugham might literally explode, like a watermelon in a microwave. Ian Dunt will be turned into a piece of glowing charcoal on the roof of Chernobyl.
Mason is just the first to go super-critical.
Maugham will activate his Big Book Of Lawyers Tricks And Bedtime Tales
Your (copyright: all leavers) kidding, right?
A deal which preserves the spirit of the GFA and has the effect of making Irish unification more likely and which IIRC was outlawed by one vote or another and was even rejected by Theresa May, she of No. 10 parish a while ago, and which seems very sensible and keeps us close to the EU necessarily to keep the DUP from exploding (sadly literally) but begs again the was it all worth it question?
This isn't news. The Leo-Boris deal was based on NI being in the UK customs territory but with checks and administration for the whole island. They get the benefit of frictionless trade with the Republic but subsidies from UK trade deals.
So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.
Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...
FFS what a joke
So you think that the right way to ramp down fossil fuel use is.. to start to exploit extra sources?
A lot of people live in the fracking target areas, broadly defined - not surprisingly, as the Carboniferous strata powered the Industrial Revolution. Interestingly, thsi seems to include at least part of the constituency of Ms Swinson, who appears to have supported fracking [possibly as a Coalition member, but hey ...] and (edit: reportedly) to have financial support from that quarter.
There's a good point in there. North Sea oil, which by the way does need to stay in the ground, at least has the benefit of being well away from people's homes.
And those made interesting reading too recently - basically, Scottish basins are too bitty, not cooked enough.
The only sensible thing to do right now is sit back and await developments. It's not clear whether there is the outline of a deal, the basis of a deal, what such a hypothetical deal might entail and (given the absence of any content of that hypothetical deal) whether it is sellable to any of the interested parties. So, like Stanley Baldwin, we'll have to wait and see.
The only sensible thing to do right now is sit back and await developments. It's not clear whether there is the outline of a deal, the basis of a deal, what such a hypothetical deal might entail and (given the absence of any content of that hypothetical deal) whether it is sellable to any of the interested parties. So, like Stanley Baldwin, we'll have to wait and see.
Boris Johnson 'on brink of Brexit deal' after border concessions Negotiators understood to have agreed in principle to customs border down Irish Sea
Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.
A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.
It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
If a deal is offered, there will be an absolute explosion in the hysteria fireworks factory of ultra-lunatic Remainerism.
Jolyon Maugham might literally explode, like a watermelon in a microwave. Ian Dunt will be turned into a piece of glowing charcoal on the roof of Chernobyl.
Mason is just the first to go super-critical.
Maugham will activate his Big Book Of Lawyers Tricks And Bedtime Tales
Your (copyright: all leavers) kidding, right?
A deal which preserves the spirit of the GFA and has the effect of making Irish unification more likely and which IIRC was outlawed by one vote or another and was even rejected by Theresa May, she of No. 10 parish a while ago, and which seems very sensible and keeps us close to the EU necessarily to keep the DUP from exploding (sadly literally) but begs again the was it all worth it question?
That deal is going to anger remainers?
You're (copyright: all remainers) having a laugh.
Right. Remainers should be happy about any deal that meets EU goals and keeps us on good terms. Burnt bridges don't make Rejoin any easier.
So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?
I'd say that was deliberately misunderstanding what people have said.
Unpack it for me. Because Leavers have been remarkably vociferous in claiming a mandate for some very specific things. Unfortunately, most of those things seem to be buzzing around inside their own heads rather than having any conceivable justification by reference to external events.
There is a misunderstanding here. Parliament's mandate was given to the people for one question only: Remain or Leave. Having decided that, the mandate returns to government and parliament to sort it out; until they have done so it remains with them. We can all make our judgements at General Elections. The respective campaigns were not run by organisations that had the power to implement them. Only government and parliament has that power.
Bollocks. The vote was won with the Leave campaign. Pretending it didn't happen and ignoring the basis on which it was won is a betrayal of democracy.
Suppose a person supported Leave on the basis that they wanted to join EFTA (Richard North for example). How should they have voted in the referendum? And would someone be wrong now to campaign for such an outcome on the basis that a close vote means a compromise? Is compromise always a betrayal of democracy or only in this case?
Being honest that's what I hoped would happen. We would leave but due to the closeness of the result a consensus would be reached that had as leaving as softly as possible (heck all we still need to do to resolve immigration is to make our benefits system contribution rather than needs based).
The problem is that (a) insisting on freedom of movement as part of EFTA made that challenging for a large part of the leave voter base and (b) the EU's negotiating strategy in respect of Ireland resulted in an unacceptable outcome.
A consensus is only possible if it satisfies the major desires of all parties, but it appears in this case that a consensus was not possible
Big_G said: "If a deal is agreed labour will be running very scared of an election"
I think we have danced round this already. If a deal - Farage say BINO - BXT split Tory vote - Lab have decent chance of getting most seats in GE
If Boris pulls this off, and it is a huge if, it will be his Falklands moment
I doubt it BigG, I dispise him and will not vote for him and know other lifelong Tories who will do he same. One is 98! You dont get more Tory than her! BJ is a total prat, who puts himself first and country second. Don't be seduced into supporting a wrong one! You have the experience in life to know something is too good to be true!
So according to Wee Jimmie Krankie there will be no fracking in Scotland, because fossil fuels are bad.
Wow it will be interesting to see how an independent Scotland manages without North Sea Oil when she logically closes that industry down for the same reasons...
FFS what a joke
YOU half witted cretin , we don't get a penny from North Sea Oil , it was all stolen by Westminster and the shysters tell us it is losing money now. You morons might be happy with tremors, shit water supplies etc, we are happy to have no fracking ever.
Yes, but...an essential part of the economic case for Indy is North sea oil and gas. Thousands in the NE are employed in the sector. SNP are hopelessly conflicted on whether to support it or not. Patrick Harvie's Greens - who SNP rely on - are adamantly against the sector. Banning fracking on fossil fuel grounds is sending a message to a lot of people who don't want to hear it and will vote against it. Its a conundrum.
Rubbish, the majority are against fracking , we will see what help the Tories give their pals in Aberdeen. Also in what world do you exist if you think the SNP rely on the Greens, they are a bunch of list losers.
It seems like Johnson is following the Nixon to China strategy of agreeing to a deal that goes further towards the EU's demands than the one he voted against twice a few months ago. Can he bring the ultra-Leavers with him? He will have to I think, because his strategy seems to be to tilt towards a more Tory favourable PD, which will limit Labour support. All a long way from dyimg in a ditch, somewhat unsurprisingly.
If a deal is offered, there will be an absolute explosion in the hysteria fireworks factory of ultra-lunatic Remainerism.
Jolyon Maugham might literally explode, like a watermelon in a microwave. Ian Dunt will be turned into a piece of glowing charcoal on the roof of Chernobyl.
Mason is just the first to go super-critical.
Maugham will activate his Big Book Of Lawyers Tricks And Bedtime Tales
Your (copyright: all leavers) kidding, right?
A deal which preserves the spirit of the GFA and has the effect of making Irish unification more likely and which IIRC was outlawed by one vote or another and was even rejected by Theresa May, she of No. 10 parish a while ago, and which seems very sensible and keeps us close to the EU necessarily to keep the DUP from exploding (sadly literally) but begs again the was it all worth it question?
That deal is going to anger remainers?
You're (copyright: all remainers) having a laugh.
Amongst many other errors, you are wrong in saying this increases the chances of Irish reunification.
IF the Norns are offered the suggested deal, it means they get the advantages of the EU Single Market and CU AND ALSO UK nationality, citizenship, welfare state and trade deals; they will have an unbelievably sweet arrangement and their economy/investment will boom. They won't ever want to change it.
As someone who has spent almost all their life in London I can assure you there are numerous boroughs in London with high house prices, high immigration and limited success. The same applies to many Major UK Cities. The home counties are a more desirable place to live than London on many measurements and yet had a majority leave vote.
How much of that expanation is simply age? I.e., cities are typically younger than shires. And young people were much more likely to vote Remain than older ones.
Far too much time has been spent considering northern working class Leavers and nowhere near enough considering southern affluent reactionaries.
Considering it is the Afluent Southern Reactionaries that are in government, I think that they are very happy to take care of their own interests.
Few is seems are so keen to take on the interests of their children or grandchildren though.
Big_G said: "If a deal is agreed labour will be running very scared of an election"
I think we have danced round this already. If a deal - Farage say BINO - BXT split Tory vote - Lab have decent chance of getting most seats in GE
If Boris pulls this off, and it is a huge if, it will be his Falklands moment
I doubt it BigG, I dispise him and will not vote for him and know other lifelong Tories who will do he same. One is 98! You dont get more Tory than her! BJ is a total prat, who puts himself first and country second. Don't be seduced into supporting a wrong one! You have the experience in life to know something is too good to be true!
This isn't news. The Leo-Boris deal was based on NI being in the UK customs territory but with checks and administration for the whole island. They get the benefit of frictionless trade with the Republic but subsidies from UK trade deals.
A "customs border in the Irish Sea" would suggest it would be much more severe than what you're suggesting, but admittedly it's just one report right now.
Comments
Huh.
See you all again soon.
Their is no cure for stupidity.
Boris Johnson 'on brink of Brexit deal' after border concessions
Negotiators understood to have agreed in principle to customs border down Irish Sea
Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.
A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.
It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions
I agree.
Which is it? Where is this deal?
Can get 3.2 on a Dec GE now. What`s causing this move? A Dec GE is no less likely than it was this morning is it?
In the meanwhile this article - from over 3 years ago (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/) - did try to start thinking about what might be done to address the concerns of those who voted Leave if Brexit continued. It is some Brexiteers themselves who seem utterly indifferent to those concerns.
https://edinburghgeolsoc.org/eg_pdfs/edinburgh-geologist-62.pdf
https://www.edinburghgeolsoc.org/fracking-discussion-reply/
That would entails campaign over Christmas.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
If there's a monthly market available for next year then January should be a mammoth lay. Not a chance!
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1184127435568271360
Lol.
But he summarises anyway.
Excellent journalism.
Now, it's a mess.
Brexit has busted analogies.
Whilst Boris weaves his magic.
The reason being a lack of time to get the legislation through and no trust that once MPs get to the WAIB that issues won’t arise.
Bozo has only himself to blame .
I think we have danced round this already. If a deal - Farage say BINO - BXT split Tory vote - Lab have decent chance of getting most seats in GE
Theresa Mayancient history thinking.https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184127055333605376
Jolyon Maugham might literally explode, like a watermelon in a microwave. Ian Dunt will be turned into a piece of glowing charcoal on the roof of Chernobyl.
Mason is just the first to go super-critical.
This is exactly why LP will never let it get through the Commons.
Imagine what they were like as kids!
https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1184125559212826628
On PB alone, it would have reduced the volume of comments by at least half.
Or perhaps, rather than arguing what a vote for Leave meant, we'd have spent all our energy arguing that the contingency plan wasn't the best way to set about it.
Good afternoon, everybody.
So 3774 for 41,118 in Boston,
5375 for 123,937 in Peterborough
15,484 for the entirety of Wales 1,921,434
Of which 4525 were for Cardiff (244,293), only 156 for Blanau Gwent (43,811)
All 2016 figures.
It is only a couple of days
The problem with this theory is that wasn't bourne out by the supermarket's own sales numbers.
But the media are having to dig around all their contacts as no-one is talking. Hence you get weird shit from the peripherals.....
A deal which preserves the spirit of the GFA and has the effect of making Irish unification more likely and which IIRC was outlawed by one vote or another and was even rejected by Theresa May, she of No. 10 parish a while ago, and which seems very sensible and keeps us close to the EU necessarily to keep the DUP from exploding (sadly literally) but begs again the was it all worth it question?
That deal is going to anger remainers?
You're (copyright: all remainers) having a laugh.
Too much smoke and mirrors atm.
Can't remember if we're in it or not. If we are there are supposed to be no leaks.
A consensus is only possible if it satisfies the major desires of all parties, but it appears in this case that a consensus was not possible
IF the Norns are offered the suggested deal, it means they get the advantages of the EU Single Market and CU AND ALSO UK nationality, citizenship, welfare state and trade deals; they will have an unbelievably sweet arrangement and their economy/investment will boom. They won't ever want to change it.
Irish unity will become a distant dream.
But will the DUP have the wits to grasp this?
Few is seems are so keen to take on the interests of their children or grandchildren though.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/745660902318407680