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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general

On a big political day the money on Betfair, according to the detdata.io has been going on the next general election taking place next year or later. This option has just edged December from the favourite slot.
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2019 is actually favourite though
“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."
Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.
If Johnson believes that the Benn Act will need to be complied with, but the prospect of an extension is politically toxic, isn't the realistic prospect of a deal emerging the best possible fig leaf for this extension (and if necessary election)?
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752
...
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401
It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.
Hate to say it, but Rejoin will not have enough traction (Actually, I don't hate to say it). Hardcore Remainers like Grieve, their only chance is an extension followed by GE at which either Labour or LD win (or both).
Long-Bailey or Pidcock. But not yet.
Perhaps misleading is more accurate... than ‘inaccurate’!
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232128148426753
Once any form of leave (With a deal) is secured all the pressure politically of actually leaving is relieved so one might expect sterling to climb as we'd be into a very long transition period followed by a close FTA.
All guesses, of course!
https://twitter.com/toby_ashken/status/1182644367338754051
If the theory is that parties choose leaders based on the perceived failings/characteristics of their predecessor, then I'd imagine a young, female, non-London, very-pro EU MP who is on the more outspoken/ruder side and a bit less turn the other cheek/pacifist.
Sounds like Jess Philips to me.
Sarah Palin
At whom all the ladies go 'Phwoar! Is
He really for Leave?
For he's sure to achieve
Adulation beyond where their core is.'
The UK is starting from a point of complete alignment and we will therefore be concentrating on mechanisms and areas where divergence might be desired going forwards.
I am saying that more as a father than a Brexiteer
What Jason J hunter is saying on Twitter a out proceedings
Enterobius vermicularis
Trypanosoma brucei
Sarcoptes scabiei
A veritable Pthirus pubis
The problem (may) be that neither the general public nor the press have shown the slightest interest in trade deals prior to Brexit. Such discussion have not exactly been secret, but no one really gave a shit about the finer details. Thus progress was made.
If the negotiators are facing endless leaks and Telegraph front pages over every negotiating point it will make a rapid resolution nigh-on impossible, alignment or not.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1182608462095753216
You think how will we adapt to the new baby in our lives - what do we need to change.
I'm saying its a crap analogy and it is. I'm sure there are plenty others to make his point - it's just that it's not this one.
A scholar of Plato and Horace,
He would bluster and lie,
In a ditch he would die,
A great boost to the followers of Wallace
There once was a man from Japan
Whose verses never would scan
When asked why it was,
he said "it's because
I always try to fit as many words in the last line as I possibly can."
Boris will scare the ERG in to backing the deal otherwise the House will revoke A50 as No Deal doesn't respect the referendum campaign.
Boris will also scare Remain inclined MPs into backing his deal because he'll say he'll lawfully circumvent the Benn act.
So that's a no?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1182654265287958530?s=20
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182654334372384772?s=20
There once was a PM called Boris,
A scholar of Plato and Horace,
He would bluster and lie,
In a ditch he would die,
A boost to the followers of Wallace
1. She comes up with an idea.
2. A man dismisses it.
3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself!
4. Man gets the applause.
If he can hold ERG rebellion down as much as possible by threats of deselection/withdrawal of whip/"I'll bloody well revoke if you keep pissing around" to the level of the 3rd Meaningful Vote, hold the rest of those who voted for it, and add the 18 Kinnockios, he gets to 304-326.
Add in Norman Lamb from the LDs (he's on the all-group-for-a-Deal lot) and it's 305-325. He has to switch just 10 more.