I don't tend to look at these threads at the weekend, but I will be interested in seeing how posters here react to (if it is the case) Johnson having a sea border with NI as his compromise on Monday.
I expect there will be a lot of noise but until the negotiators exit the tunnel or probably following next weeks EU Council meeting, it is a only a guess but if, and it is a huge if, Boris shares a joint conference call with Junckers and Tusk to celebrate a deal it must be very unlikely the HOC will reject it, in view of the likely voter fury that would follow
In the meantime Boris gets full publicity for his manifesto, sorry Queens Speech, on monday much to the angst of Corbyn who seems to have invited many to vote against him at a GE by confirming he will resign if he loses
I do find it fascinating that the DUP remains silent. Are Foster, Dodds and Paisley being kept hostage in Number 10, with Dom ordering in the Guinness and Pringles to try and pacify them for long enough to have Schrondinger’s Deal last the week?
If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
Crap analogy. The joy and wonder of a first baby's birth overrides any and all problems. You would die for that little bundle of joy without question. Unless you're an individual who cares more about yourself and your previous life instead of the little baby looking up at you.
Are you saying that when a couple finds out they're having a child that they shouldn't think about anything beyond birthing day? Coz that sounds like bad advice to me...
He is talking reality you turnip.
I think he might be assuming a different character of parent than the analogy posits.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
I do find it fascinating that the DUP remains silent. Are Foster, Dodds and Paisley being kept hostage in Number 10, with Dom ordering in the Guinness and Pringles to try and pacify them for long enough to have Schrondingers Deal last the week?
He must have agreed something meaty with them beforehand, unless they're just keeping their powder dry until they know for sure they've been sold down the river.
I expect they'll go full on William Ulsterman at that point.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
Interesting reporting. This fits the Johnsonian "and to the naysayers, and doomster, etc" idea that all it takes is will and force of personality to get concessions out of johnny foreigner, and that he could do even more if there was a GE where he was given a thumping majority.
To be fair, though, the hardcore ERG and DUP were never on board with the Deal before, anyway. If he can hold ERG rebellion down as much as possible by threats of deselection/withdrawal of whip/"I'll bloody well revoke if you keep pissing around" to the level of the 3rd Meaningful Vote, hold the rest of those who voted for it, and add the 18 Kinnockios, he gets to 304-326. Add in Norman Lamb from the LDs (he's on the all-group-for-a-Deal lot) and it's 305-325. He has to switch just 10 more.
I hope the ERG do oppose. Based on recent precedent it will be essential to withdraw the whip and deselect them. Cancer removed from the Conservative Party at a stroke. sensible people could then replace them. Sadly I can't see this happening. The Conservative Party is already dead.
If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
I am saying that more as a father than a Brexiteer
It does not stop after 18 years, I am still being disrupted at more than double that
A son is a son 'till he takes him a wife, But a daughter's daughter all of her life!
My granddaughter (aged 30) has fairly recently acquired a serious boyfriend. They've moved in together and his mother came to see the new home. She was telling me about it and I said; 'Ah Mum's coming to see how this woman's looking after her little boy! GDD indignantly replied that her boyfriend was over 30. Hmmm!
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
This isn't May's arrangement though. It is NI only.
I do find it fascinating that the DUP remains silent. Are Foster, Dodds and Paisley being kept hostage in Number 10, with Dom ordering in the Guinness and Pringles to try and pacify them for long enough to have Schrondingers Deal last the week?
He must have agreed something meaty with them beforehand, unless they're just keeping their powder dry until they know for sure they've been sold down the river.
I expect they'll go full on William Ulsterman at that point.
It’s just not the same when it’s not delivered as “NEVER! NEVER! NEVER!”
If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
Crap analogy. The joy and wonder of a first baby's birth overrides any and all problems. You would die for that little bundle of joy without question. Unless you're an individual who cares more about yourself and your previous life instead of the little baby looking up at you.
Are you saying that when a couple finds out they're having a child that they shouldn't think about anything beyond birthing day? Coz that sounds like bad advice to me...
He is talking reality you turnip.
I think he might be assuming a different character of parent than the analogy posits.
Seems a poor analogy. I think he is referring to all makers of dairy products.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
This isn't May's arrangement though. It is NI only.
Thats right. Brexit is like trying on every shoe in every shoe shop in town, then going back to the first shop and buying the first pair tried.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
This isn't May's arrangement though. It is NI only.
It’s the one offered by the EU, if it is, before she said in was unacceptable and agreed a whole UK backstop
If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
Of course. Just when the Tories and a chunk of the Labour Party seem ready to put partisan interest to the side, the UUP start acting cravenly. This fudge is fantastic for Northern Ireland. All the best bits of both EU membership and UK trade deals, plus the option to leave whenever they want. Plus a bonus for unionists that it would be in a way better position than ROI so won't want to leave the UK. Theh would have to be nuts to reject it.
“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."
Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.
Certainly that's what the betting markets would indicate. Over the past couple of days sterling has risen by about 4 cents against the dollar, while the probability of No Deal has dropped by maybe 7-8 percentage points.
It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.
Given a lot of the more strident leavers thought a depreciating pound was a great thing, there's been very little said about how this sterling rally is actually a disaster.
A return to USD-GBP 1.3/ EUR 1.2 and then ... stability would suit me fine.
That seems like a sweet landing spot, if maybe teeny bit low for sterling. But as we do most of our business in USD and EUR, perhaps I shouldn't complain.
If a deal is done £ will go back to $1.40, ish
So buy the £ and back no deal on the exchange and profit from the spread. Bollocks.
Of course. Just when the Tories and a chunk of the Labour Party seem ready to put partisan interest to the side, the UUP start acting cravenly. This fudge is fantastic for Northern Ireland. All the best bits of both EU membership and UK trade deals, plus the option to leave whenever they want. Plus a bonus for unionists that it would be in a way better position than ROI so won't want to leave the UK. They would have to be nuts to reject it.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
This isn't May's arrangement though. It is NI only.
It’s the one offered by the EU, if it is, before she said in was unacceptable and agreed a whole UK backstop
No it isn't that one either. It is a mix of that and May's Customs Partnership. Whisper it but when people actually work together and each give a little ground, you can get a workable compromise.
Of course. Just when the Tories and a chunk of the Labour Party seem ready to put partisan interest to the side, the UUP start acting cravenly. This fudge is fantastic for Northern Ireland. All the best bits of both EU membership and UK trade deals, plus the option to leave whenever they want. Plus a bonus for unionists that it would be in a way better position than ROI so won't want to leave the UK. Theh would have to be nuts to reject it.
I wonder if Boris might have offered Stormont control of a devolved corporation tax? This deal + that.....
Of course. Just when the Tories and a chunk of the Labour Party seem ready to put partisan interest to the side, the UUP start acting cravenly. This fudge is fantastic for Northern Ireland. All the best bits of both EU membership and UK trade deals, plus the option to leave whenever they want. Plus a bonus for unionists that it would be in a way better position than ROI so won't want to leave the UK. Theh would have to be nuts to reject it.
I wonder if Boris might have offered Stormont control of a devolved corporation tax? This deal + that.....
That is a genius idea. Would also reduce the subsidy from the centre.
If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
Well, maybe just the very lonely and ridiculous figure of Nigel Farage.....
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
This isn't May's arrangement though. It is NI only.
Thats right. Brexit is like trying on every shoe in every shoe shop in town, then going back to the first shop and buying the first pair tried.
I find shoes that fit well ... rare, had to go up to a 12.5 last pair ! Shoes seem to have got... narrower over time ><
If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."
Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.
Certainly that's what the betting markets would indicate. Over the past couple of days sterling has risen by about 4 cents against the dollar, while the probability of No Deal has dropped by maybe 7-8 percentage points.
It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.
Given a lot of the more strident leavers thought a depreciating pound was a great thing, there's been very little said about how this sterling rally is actually a disaster.
A return to USD-GBP 1.3/ EUR 1.2 and then ... stability would suit me fine.
That seems like a sweet landing spot, if maybe teeny bit low for sterling. But as we do most of our business in USD and EUR, perhaps I shouldn't complain.
If a deal is done £ will go back to $1.40, ish
So buy the £ and back no deal on the exchange and profit from the spread. Bollocks.
i suspect there are people making hella dolla with a similar approach
If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.
All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.
Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.
Apparently Cummings when he wasn't a public servant did a few days' consultancy for a company which has developed an AI application which the NHS may or may not use in the future.
Can they really not find anything better to attack Cummings with?
Of course. Just when the Tories and a chunk of the Labour Party seem ready to put partisan interest to the side, the UUP start acting cravenly. This fudge is fantastic for Northern Ireland. All the best bits of both EU membership and UK trade deals, plus the option to leave whenever they want. Plus a bonus for unionists that it would be in a way better position than ROI so won't want to leave the UK. Theh would have to be nuts to reject it.
I wonder if Boris might have offered Stormont control of a devolved corporation tax? This deal + that.....
That is a genius idea. Would also reduce the subsidy from the centre.
Add in a Belfast Freeport, and something on transport links more useful than a bridge. It is in the interests of both us and the republic to buy off NI and encourage most residents to just sit back and watch the cash roll in.
Apparently Cummings when he wasn't a public servant did a few days' consultancy for a company which has developed an AI application which the NHS may or may not use in the future.
Can they really not find anything better to attack Cummings with?
Yes; he was held in contempt of parliament, he's a liar, a bully and he wants to destroy the democratic and economic unpinnings of our country. He deserves everything he gets.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
A Blairite is just a socialist hit with the frying pan of political reality.
But McDonnell is still more or less a Trot.
A smooth-talking Trot, probably with a conscience, not just a ranting posho like Corbyn and Milne - and, as this clip shows, sometimes on the side of the angels.
But still a Trot. And probably more dangerous than Corbyn to let near power because of his good side.
Markets moving strongly in favour of some of my biggest positions -
GE will be 2020 or later. Corbyn will leave in 2020. Will be no No Deal Brexit. Will be no Ref2. Corbyn will not be the next PM. Johnson will not be deposed as PM this year.
Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.
The we have a new transition that transitions us from the transition to a new transition that will take place after the transition from the transition is completed.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
Except it's not just the idea that counts. It's having the wherewithal to get it agreed and implemented. Most men in May's position would have failed. It remains to be seen if Boris has succeeded.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
Here`s a question: If Boris has the numbers (just, with a few Labour moderates) to get deal through the Commons - and then Corbyn decides to go for a VONC - would a VONC get the votes? Putting it another way, would any MP cast a vote that he/she has no confidence in the government when they have just been instrumental to the governement`s successful securing of a deal?
Apparently Cummings when he wasn't a public servant did a few days' consultancy for a company which has developed an AI application which the NHS may or may not use in the future.
Can they really not find anything better to attack Cummings with?
How are the BIJ still going after some of their previous "work".
I cannot decide whether I am rooting for Trump to be brought down by impeachment or not. It would be a blast - obviously - but perhaps it is better if he runs next year and loses. The risk with this is that if he runs he might win. Whereas if he cannot run there is a guarantee that we get a White House without him in it - which is not be sniffed at. Toughie.
A Blairite is just a socialist hit with the frying pan of political reality.
But McDonnell is still more or less a Trot.
A smooth-talking Trot, probably with a conscience, not just a ranting posho like Corbyn and Milne - and, as this clip shows, sometimes on the side of the angels.
But still a Trot. And probably more dangerous than Corbyn to let near power because of his good side.
As I have said repeatedly, Boris will take a resolution of the House to approve a Brexit Deal as Brexit having happened by 31st October. He'll back that up by having the documentation reference an effective date of 31st October.
Presumably if there's a majority for the deal, there'll be a majority to overturn these? (I guess either will require the acquiescence of some fairly spartan Leavers)
The collecting tariffs on behalf of another country amendment was a spectacularly dumb one, as there are literally dozens of examples of it happening around the world.
(And there are many many reasons for it, even if you don't have a customs union. The EU collects customs duties for the Swiss, for example, because it's more convenient for everyone if a container bound for Zurich clears customs to the final destination in Rotterdam rather than by the side of the road outside Basle.)
Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.
The we have a new transition that transitions us from the transition to a new transition that will take place after the transition from the transition is completed.
In 2119 pub bores will be telling their mates “Of course, our relationship with Europe is technically a transitional one...”
A Blairite is just a socialist hit with the frying pan of political reality.
But McDonnell is still more or less a Trot.
A smooth-talking Trot, probably with a conscience, not just a ranting posho like Corbyn and Milne - and, as this clip shows, sometimes on the side of the angels.
But still a Trot. And probably more dangerous than Corbyn to let near power because of his good side.
McDonnell wants to win unlike Corbyn.
McDonnell has admitted thats only r r reason he joined the labour party in the first place.
Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.
The we have a new transition that transitions us from the transition to a new transition that will take place after the transition from the transition is completed.
In 2119 pub bores will be telling their mates “Of course, our relationship with Europe is technically a transitional one...”
I cannot decide whether I am rooting for Trump to be brought down by impeachment or not. It would be a blast - obviously - but perhaps it is better if he runs next year and loses. The risk with this is that if he runs he might win. Whereas if he cannot run there is a guarantee that we get a White House without him in it - which is not be sniffed at. Toughie.
They need to get rid asap. Damn the consequences, which cannot be worse than him remaining anywhere near nuclear codes.
Every woman in the world will recognise this: 1. She comes up with an idea. 2. A man dismisses it. 3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself! 4. Man gets the applause.
There is in fact a very famous cartoon along thise lines. Woman in Board Meeting looking nonplussed as the Chairman says to her 'Excellent idea. Why don't we get one of the men to propose it.'
This isn't May's arrangement though. It is NI only.
May's arrangement started off by being NI only, and then the DUP said they didn't want something NI only...
I cannot decide whether I am rooting for Trump to be brought down by impeachment or not. It would be a blast - obviously - but perhaps it is better if he runs next year and loses. The risk with this is that if he runs he might win. Whereas if he cannot run there is a guarantee that we get a White House without him in it - which is not be sniffed at. Toughie.
They need to get rid asap. Damn the consequences, which cannot be worse than him remaining anywhere near nuclear codes.
His aversion to military action indicates to me hes rather a safer part of hands on the nuclear codes than bomb em Barry (for example)
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
As I have said repeatedly, Boris will take a resolution of the House to approve a Brexit Deal as Brexit having happened by 31st October. He'll back that up by having the documentation reference an effective date of 31st October.
What's most important to me is what Betfair would do.
He has no doubt donated considerable sums to good causes over the years and these records will show that.
Lol! I literally flicked to the top of the post to check whether it was HUYFD but mercifully it was genuine wit rather than the accidental kind we normally enjoy from PB's own Comical Ali.
Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.
The we have a new transition that transitions us from the transition to a new transition that will take place after the transition from the transition is completed.
In 2119 pub bores will be telling their mates “Of course, our relationship with Europe is technically a transitional one...”
Reminds me of that tweet that was doing the rounds after the extension:
Trivial Pursuit question, 2049
'Which country is technically in the process of exiting the European Union?'
Here`s a question: If Boris has the numbers (just, with a few Labour moderates) to get deal through the Commons - and then Corbyn decides to go for a VONC - would a VONC get the votes? Putting it another way, would any MP cast a vote that he/she has no confidence in the government when they have just been instrumental to the governement`s successful securing of a deal?
Corbyn will never VoNC. By the time he realises he should've, it'll be far too late. If this deal goes ahead, Corbyn is finished. To be fair, he's pretty much close to being finished even if it doesn't.
Comments
In the meantime Boris gets full publicity for his manifesto, sorry Queens Speech, on monday much to the angst of Corbyn who seems to have invited many to vote against him at a GE by confirming he will resign if he loses
Extraordinary times we are living through
https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1182661326407110656
I expect they'll go full on William Ulsterman at that point.
But a daughter's daughter all of her life!
My granddaughter (aged 30) has fairly recently acquired a serious boyfriend. They've moved in together and his mother came to see the new home. She was telling me about it and I said; 'Ah Mum's coming to see how this woman's looking after her little boy! GDD indignantly replied that her boyfriend was over 30.
Hmmm!
https://twitter.com/AndJeremySaid/status/1182661166612525059
https://twitter.com/IamHappyToast/status/1179039613316259840
https://order-order.com/2019/10/11/mcdonnell-confirms-corbyn-will-resign-lose-another-election/
Turns out the hard left ultras think McDonnell has sold out too
LOL
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/11/dominic-cummings-accused-of-conflict-of-interest-over-nhs-fund
Apparently Cummings when he wasn't a public servant did a few days' consultancy for a company which has developed an AI application which the NHS may or may not use in the future.
Can they really not find anything better to attack Cummings with?
He deserves everything he gets.
[if that seems a little dark, look up 'gods banker' and the same bridge]
https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1182432393527021570
A smooth-talking Trot, probably with a conscience, not just a ranting posho like Corbyn and Milne - and, as this clip shows, sometimes on the side of the angels.
But still a Trot. And probably more dangerous than Corbyn to let near power because of his good side.
GE will be 2020 or later.
Corbyn will leave in 2020.
Will be no No Deal Brexit.
Will be no Ref2.
Corbyn will not be the next PM.
Johnson will not be deposed as PM this year.
Smug City.
I will not speak of my various other positions
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1182570793512964096
I think @HYUFD has done so too
He has no doubt donated considerable sums to good causes over the years and these records will show that.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1182350495798702081?s=19
Girl.
Lizzie.
Warren.
(And there are many many reasons for it, even if you don't have a customs union. The EU collects customs duties for the Swiss, for example, because it's more convenient for everyone if a container bound for Zurich clears customs to the final destination in Rotterdam rather than by the side of the road outside Basle.)
I seem to recall that this was Gove`s election bid policy.
Sounds familiar.
https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1182402412088365057?s=21
Trivial Pursuit question, 2049
'Which country is technically in the process of exiting the European Union?'
If this deal goes ahead, Corbyn is finished. To be fair, he's pretty much close to being finished even if it doesn't.