Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
I see jezzas tweet about his meeting with the indian political party is still causing a fall out in india....not that he will know because he didnt write the tweet and as its friday have been down the allotment all day.
Here`s a question: If Boris has the numbers (just, with a few Labour moderates) to get deal through the Commons - and then Corbyn decides to go for a VONC - would a VONC get the votes? Putting it another way, would any MP cast a vote that he/she has no confidence in the government when they have just been instrumental to the governement`s successful securing of a deal?
Labour MPs would have to vote for a VNOC. Failure to do so would mean deselection.
Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
Johnson has said an awful lot of things that have turned out not to be true. His willingness to lie may actually turn out to be a significant benefit to the country. I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
But reunification delayed and eventually happening with a more prosperous North must surely have much better chance of passing off smoothly than reunification passed by a narrow margin in the wake of a no-deal crash out. So the DUP's narrower interests aside, we could do worse than a "boondoggle to the North" as an attempt to reconcile Brexit with the GFA, couldn't we?
(Sadly the DUP's narrower interests may prevail. I guess we'll find out...)
Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
Johnson has said an awful lot of things that have turned out not to be true. His willingness to lie may actually turn out to be a significant benefit to the country. I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
Those details will still remain to be negotiated though, so the symbolic act of leaving will not be enough to neutralise Brexit as a political issue. For example we will almost immediately have to start confronting the question of whether transition needs to be extended.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
But reunification delayed and eventually happening with a more prosperous North must surely have much better chance of passing off smoothly than reunification passed by a narrow margin in the wake of a no-deal crash out. So the DUP's narrower interests aside, we could do worse than a "boondoggle to the North" as an attempt to reconcile Brexit with the GFA, couldn't we?
(Sadly the DUP's narrower interests may prevail. I guess we'll find out...)
But if I am to believe all the Brexiteers Northern Ireland will end up worse off than the rest of the UK because of the extraordinary sunlit uplands that full fat Brexit will secure for us ;-)
Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
Johnson has said an awful lot of things that have turned out not to be true. His willingness to lie may actually turn out to be a significant benefit to the country. I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
Those details will still remain to be negotiated though, so the symbolic act of leaving will not be enough to neutralise Brexit as a political issue. For example we will almost immediately have to start confronting the question of whether transition needs to be extended.
I reckon there will be some deep symbolism Leavers can feel good about on the day that we do leave. I hope there is a deal because I think it may take a lot of the venom out of the coverage of the Brexit process in the UK. That, in turn, might give the government some space to actualluy start thinking about what kind of final deal is in the country's best interests, rather than what is needed to win over BXP supporters. If we can get to that point we may avoid totally trashing everything. I still think that Brexit is an extraordinarily foolish act of self-harm, but as it is clear we are going to leave we need to do it in the least harmful way possible.
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
Johnson has said an awful lot of things that have turned out not to be true. His willingness to lie may actually turn out to be a significant benefit to the country. I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
Those details will still remain to be negotiated though, so the symbolic act of leaving will not be enough to neutralise Brexit as a political issue. For example we will almost immediately have to start confronting the question of whether transition needs to be extended.
I reckon there will be some deep symbolism Leavers can feel good about on the day that we do leave. I hope there is a deal because I think it may take a lot of the venom out of the coverage of the Brexit process in the UK. That, in turn, might give the government some space to actualluy start thinking about what kind of final deal is in the country's best interests, rather than what is needed to win over BXP supporters. If we can get to that point we may avoid totally trashing everything. I still think that Brexit is an extraordinarily foolish act of self-harm, but as it is clear we are going to leave we need to do it in the least harmful way possible.
Take the specific example of a transition extension. Do you really think that won't be an incredibly divisive question or that there won't be a very active campaign saying that the final deal should be re-accession?
Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
Johnson has said an awful lot of things that have turned out not to be true. His willingness to lie may actually turn out to be a significant benefit to the country. I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
Those details will still remain to be negotiated though, so the symbolic act of leaving will not be enough to neutralise Brexit as a political issue. For example we will almost immediately have to start confronting the question of whether transition needs to be extended.
I reckon there will be some deep symbolism Leavers can feel good about on the day that we do leave. I hope there is a deal because I think it may take a lot of the venom out of the coverage of the Brexit process in the UK. That, in turn, might give the government some space to actualluy start thinking about what kind of final deal is in the country's best interests, rather than what is needed to win over BXP supporters. If we can get to that point we may avoid totally trashing everything. I still think that Brexit is an extraordinarily foolish act of self-harm, but as it is clear we are going to leave we need to do it in the least harmful way possible.
This is not the least harmful way. It's close to the most harmful way. It's what was in 2016 the worst case scenario.
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I find it interesting that BJ is now proposing a deal if the sources are to believed: that he voted against twice! His principles change by the day, if he actually has any to start with...
Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
Johnson has said an awful lot of things that have turned out not to be true. His willingness to lie may actually turn out to be a significant benefit to the country. I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
Those details will still remain to be negotiated though, so the symbolic act of leaving will not be enough to neutralise Brexit as a political issue. For example we will almost immediately have to start confronting the question of whether transition needs to be extended.
I reckon there will be some deep symbolism Leavers can feel good about on the day that we do leave. I hope there is a deal because I think it may take a lot of the venom out of the coverage of the Brexit process in the UK. That, in turn, might give the government some space to actualluy start thinking about what kind of final deal is in the country's best interests, rather than what is needed to win over BXP supporters. If we can get to that point we may avoid totally trashing everything. I still think that Brexit is an extraordinarily foolish act of self-harm, but as it is clear we are going to leave we need to do it in the least harmful way possible.
The TBP are against any deal, the Brexit supporting media are key to whether any deal is accepted or they keep stoking the fire....
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
Johnson has said an awful lot of things that have turned out not to be true. His willingness to lie may actually turn out to be a significant benefit to the country. I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
Those details will still remain to be negotiated though, so the symbolic act of leaving will not be enough to neutralise Brexit as a political issue. For example we will almost immediately have to start confronting the question of whether transition needs to be extended.
I reckon there will be some deep symbolism Leavers can feel good about on the day that we do leave. I hope there is a deal because I think it may take a lot of the venom out of the coverage of the Brexit process in the UK. That, in turn, might give the government some space to actualluy start thinking about what kind of final deal is in the country's best interests, rather than what is needed to win over BXP supporters. If we can get to that point we may avoid totally trashing everything. I still think that Brexit is an extraordinarily foolish act of self-harm, but as it is clear we are going to leave we need to do it in the least harmful way possible.
This is not the least harmful way. It's close to the most harmful way. It's what was in 2016 the worst case scenario.
It is the least harmful way that is doable. It is, of course, still going to inflict significant long-term damage on the country in all kinds of ways. Just not as mich as the alternative. Jeremy Corbyn makes it impossible for any other scenario.
I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
I agree. Of course the event of leaving is only the end of the beginning. Many years of wrangling lay ahead. The Future Relationship could be anything from Norway plus to Canada minus, depending on who is in government here, which in turn depends on the outcome of the next GE and possibly the one after. In that sense Brexit drags on. But Brexit as a matter of intense existential culture war political drama will be over. The 2016 Referendum result will have been implemented. We will be OUT.
Once a WA is ratified the Transition/s in it can't be extended except by an entirely new treaty which requires unanimity. Johnson has said publicly while PM he has " no intention " of using the one Transition extension that is/was in the old WA. He's also confirmed that all these A50 extensions are coming out of the first Transition length. So @Richard_Nabavi makes an excellent point which I think others are dismissing too easily. As things stand we either have the FTA ready in 14 months time ( which won't happen ) or it's a No Deal exit on 31/12/20.
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
Johnson peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
Those details will still remain to be negotiated though, so the symbolic act of leaving will not be enough to neutralise Brexit as a political issue. For example we will almost immediately have to start confronting the question of whether transition needs to be extended.
I reckon there will be some deep symbolism Leavers can feel good about on the day that we do leave. I hope there is a deal because I think it may take a lot of the venom out of the coverage of the Brexit process in the UK. That, in turn, might give the government some space to actualluy start thinking about what kind of final deal is in the country's best interests, rather than what is needed to win over BXP supporters. If we can get to that point we may avoid totally trashing everything. I still think that Brexit is an extraordinarily foolish act of self-harm, but as it is clear we are going to leave we need to do it in the least harmful way possible.
Take the specific example of a transition extension. Do you really think that won't be an incredibly divisive question or that there won't be a very active campaign saying that the final deal should be re-accession?
I think that it will exercise some people. I do not think it will split the country. Being seen to leave will do for a lot of people, IMO. That's also why I think that we could very easily have done a (much more preferable) EFTA/EEA Brexit. What stopped that was that it woud have destroyed the Tories which, for me, would just have made it even better!!
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
Surely you believe the separatists will see the error of their ways eventually and rejoin the UK?
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
Demographics? A shift from Protestant majority to a Catholic one.
Is it me or have remainers been stunned into silence? The lib dem spin op seems to have shut down this afternoon
The Hillary Benn hysterics about seizing the order paper over the last 2 days look a bit daft now. Any attempt to derail a deal is going to go down like cold sick
Is it me or have remainers been stunned into silence? The lib dem spin op seems to have shut down this afternoon
The LibDems are rather Bollocksed By Brexit.....
Why, even if there is a deal I will not vote for Boris Johnson. The LD or perhaps even Labour (tactically) will get my vote in the forthcoming election. Former Tory voters like me hate Boris Johnson.
Is it me or have remainers been stunned into silence? The lib dem spin op seems to have shut down this afternoon
I'm a Remainer and I've done TEN posts in the last 45 minutes!
I think it’s more likely they are awaiting more information ? For now it’s not even clear that we’re in a tunnel, let alone just what it is that could be the basis of agreement
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
I suspect that once we are out it will suit everyone to just keep things rolling. Do not underestimate the cathartic nature of the symbolic act of leaving - the lowering odf the Union Jack outside the Commission, the separate line at UK customs, the blue passports. I just do not see that many peope caring about the details - even ongoing freedom of movement, to be honest.
I agree. Of course the event of leaving is only the end of the beginning. Many years of wrangling lay ahead. The Future Relationship could be anything from Norway plus to Canada minus, depending on who is in government here, which in turn depends on the outcome of the next GE and possibly the one after. In that sense Brexit drags on. But Brexit as a matter of intense existential culture war political drama will be over. The 2016 Referendum result will have been implemented. We will be OUT.
I dunno. I think the culture war will continue. I think the division of identities between Leaver and Remainer will, in new guises, continue. That’s why the Lib Dem revoke policy came about I believe - positioning themselves so categorically in contemplation of said realignment
They might, but I personally think there is little chance of that passing. I tend to have a proper brew most afternoons, with a gingernut, and I always peer at the dregs when I've finished. Never have seen a Ref2 in there, not once, and today was no exception.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
Is it me or have remainers been stunned into silence? The lib dem spin op seems to have shut down this afternoon
The LibDems are rather Bollocksed By Brexit.....
No. This is the start of a culture war. They have signalled which side they are on far more effectively than Labour. Even after we leave they can say they were the only ones to keep the flame alive and they will attract those very disgruntled people you In whose pain and disappointment you take such pleasure in. And there are a lot of them.
If Mark Francois ends up being the last man standing, and getting punted, I will never stop laughing.
Or Bill Cash.
The only problem with that is given the extreme membership of the Tory party today, who will be selecting candidates to replace expelled ERG? You are going to replace ERG MPs with similar candidates with similar views. This is not the same dynamic as replacing those who voted against No Deal as local parties who had "one nation" Tory MPs with the whip removed will probably replace those MPs with more Eurosceptic ones.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
Demographics? A shift from Protestant majority to a Catholic one.
Probably more of importance is that the ROI has become more socially liberal on things such as abortion, gay rights, divorce etc. For Catholics in the North, that was one big advantage to being under the UK.
However, other factors may also be an issue in any debate, such as health care systems and social security.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
Demographics? A shift from Protestant majority to a Catholic one.
Probably more of importance is that the ROI has become more socially liberal on things such as abortion, gay rights, divorce etc. For Catholics in the North, that was one big advantage to being under the UK.
However, other factors may also be an issue in any debate, such as health care systems and social security.
Which are changing on this side of the (current) border: consider how the NHS and Universal Credit might fare in a 5-year Johnsonian regime.
I find it interesting that BJ is now proposing a deal if the sources are to believed: that he voted against twice! His principles change by the day, if he actually has any to start with...
He has no principles, this is clear. But if he succeeds in getting an exit Deal through it will be a genuine political achievement. (emoticon for gritted teeth).
However, as we speak, he hasn't.
Hopefully Labour will retain sufficient discipline to block it.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
I expect Boris to seek an amendment to the FTPA if Corbyn refuses to vonc and that only needs a simple majority which would easily be achieved with the SNP and Lib Cems
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
I find it interesting that BJ is now proposing a deal if the sources are to believed: that he voted against twice! His principles change by the day, if he actually has any to start with...
He has no principles, this is clear. But if he succeeds in getting an exit Deal through it will be a genuine political achievement. (emoticon for gritted teeth).
However, as we speak, he hasn't.
Hopefully Labour will retain sufficient discipline to block it.
One has to be carefully not to mistake political positioning for a change in the fundamentals. Nothing has really changed! The H of C has the same composition. I would be really surprised if we leave on the 31st October 2019. I would also be surprised if a Deal would get through the Commons. We have this daily shift, where opinion sloshes around rather like water in a pool...
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
Is John Mann still an MP? he has been appointed to some sort of Government advisor role and nominated for a Peerage.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
Is John Mann still an MP? he has been appointed to some sort of Government advisor role and nominated for a Peerage.
Mann is an MP but not sitting atm, he will take up his peerage after the election. Hes cancelled out by OMara who is also not sitting
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
I expect they will also have a place for them in the Boris led Tory Party if they want to defect
I find it interesting that BJ is now proposing a deal if the sources are to believed: that he voted against twice! His principles change by the day, if he actually has any to start with...
He has no principles, this is clear. But if he succeeds in getting an exit Deal through it will be a genuine political achievement. (emoticon for gritted teeth).
However, as we speak, he hasn't.
Hopefully Labour will retain sufficient discipline to block it.
If they do block then hopefully he will find that way round the Benn act and we leave with No Deal. I don't like Johnson but he will rightly be able to claim that Labour and the Remainers forced us down that route.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
I doubt it. GB will not want the expense or the hassle.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
I expect they will also have a place for them in the Boris led Tory Party if they want to defect
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
Serioously? You think moving the border is a credible option.
It is either all in, or all out. (As the bishop said to the actress)
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
Because at some point it will be the majority view in NI. Once that is the case the UK will not have a leg to stand on. Remember all their claims about The Falklands and Gibraltar are quite rightly based on self determination. They will be in no position to deny that to NI, especially when the mechanism for a referendum is slready in place in the GFA.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
Labour would be comprehensively outvoted
But it would take time - Three Readings, Committee Stage and Report Stage. Then the Lords.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
Labour would be comprehensively outvoted
But it would take time - Three Readings, Committee Stage and Report Stage. Then the Lords.
Which the government would expedite. Labour delaying tactics will lose them yet more votes
If Mark Francois ends up being the last man standing, and getting punted, I will never stop laughing.
Or Bill Cash.
Bill Cash my hold out by virtue of the fact we're no nuking berlin but most of the ERG will agree to this because they know with Boris they've got the prospect of a Canda++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ style free trade deal at the end of it - which is something they didn't think they'd get with Theresa.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
Like the Tories did with the Benn Act?
Without the full support of the Opposition , the Benn Act would have taken a good deal longer.
Lol! I literally flicked to the top of the post to check whether it was HUYFD but mercifully it was genuine wit rather than the accidental kind we normally enjoy from PB's own Comical Ali.
Hasn't got a 'non-charitable-giving bone' in his body.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
Like the Tories did with the Benn Act?
Without the full support of the Opposition , the Benn Act would have taken a good deal longer.
And this is the same the other way around. If labour know the LDs and SNP support an election they'd be mad not to also vote for one. They'd look utterly ridiculous hiding from it
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
Serioously? You think moving the border is a credible option.
It is either all in, or all out. (As the bishop said to the actress)
Of course it is, otherwise loyalist paramilitaries in Antrim will inevitably resume a terrorist bombing campaign rather than be forced into the Republic against the will of the majority of the county's population
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
Labour would be comprehensively outvoted
But it would take time - Three Readings, Committee Stage and Report Stage. Then the Lords.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
Because at some point it will be the majority view in NI. Once that is the case the UK will not have a leg to stand on. Remember all their claims about The Falklands and Gibraltar are quite rightly based on self determination. They will be in no position to deny that to NI, especially when the mechanism for a referendum is slready in place in the GFA.
Fine for nationalist majority counties, not fine for still unionist majority counties like Antrim, a sizeable county with a population of over 600,000
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join theI Republic of Ireland
I doubt it. GB will not want the expense or the hassle.
I and most Tories I know certainly will not betray the Protestant and Unionist majority in Antrim.
We will stand beside them at all costs if they wish to stay in the UK
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
The GFA basically decided Northern Ireland remains together, whichever country it goes with. Although I don't believe in demographic destiny. Especially as the world secularises.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join theI Republic of Ireland
I doubt it. GB will not want the expense or the hassle.
I and most Tories I know certainly will not betray the Protestant and Unionist majority in Antrim.
We will stand beside them at all costs if they wish to stay in the UK
So you would oppose a Northern Ireland-only customs deal, for example?
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join theI Republic of Ireland
I doubt it. GB will not want the expense or the hassle.
I and most Tories I know certainly will not betray the Protestant and Unionist majority in Antrim.
We will stand beside them at all costs if they wish to stay in the UK
You mean ..
"We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old."
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
Irrespective of Brexit, Boris will want an election to try and get a majority to enact domestic policy, the LDs and SNP because they look like gaining many seats. So it will happen in all likelihood by early December
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
Like the Tories did with the Benn Act?
Without the full support of the Opposition , the Benn Act would have taken a good deal longer.
You are sounding desperate Justin.
Boris wil get a quick amendment to the FTPA with support of the SNP and Lib Dems and labour are heading for a disaster if they even try to oppose. Indeed with Corbyn admitting he will stand down if he loses, it is likely to result in an anti labour field day
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join theI Republic of Ireland
I doubt it. GB will not want the expense or the hassle.
I and most Tories I know certainly will not betray the Protestant and Unionist majority in Antrim.
We will stand beside them at all costs if they wish to stay in the UK
You're wrong. The Good Friday Agreement specifies how a border poll works. It would not result in moving the border to Antrim.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
The GFA basically decided Northern Ireland remains together, whichever country it goes with. Although I don't believe in demographic destiny. Especially as the world secularises.
The GFA is dead and has been since the suspension of Stormont and as the current backstop row shows and in any case it only worked as it was based on both Nationalist and Unionist consent, forcing Protestants to have direct rule from Dublin is as bad as forcing Catholics to have direct rule from London
This is getting good....the remainiacs are on the rack tonight..admittedly it may not be for long but let's enjoy this whilst it lasts.
The desire to frame everything as triumph or surrender is what is preventing a deal. Many of us Remainers are very happy to have a workable deal that can bring the country together.
Is it me or have remainers been stunned into silence? The lib dem spin op seems to have shut down this afternoon
Remainers aren’t all determined to have another vote . A straw poll of 5 friends who I’d class as ardent Remainers is a slam dunk to accept the deal .
Including myself . And the revoke pledge by the Lib Dems hasn’t gone down well .
I think you might be surprised at how many Remainers will support a deal . I suppose it depends on what’s the biggest fear .
I’m more worried about no deal than staying in the EU . A deal means there’s goodwill left , and a chance to develop a strong relationship with the EU going forward .
A no deal trashes everything , I’m simply not willing to gamble in the hope of a second vote .
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
The GFA basically decided Northern Ireland remains together, whichever country it goes with. Although I don't believe in demographic destiny. Especially as the world secularises.
The GFA is dead and has been since the suspension of Stormont and as the current backstop row show
The GFA is not dead. Both sides are wholly committed to it.
Comments
Sam Coates on Sky saying Arlene Foster has just signalled the DUP are prepared to look at the detail and there is the potential for a deal with them
As for noone caring about how long transitions go on for with it's continued full payments and FoM it's literally how vassal state entered the Brexit lexicon.
(Sadly the DUP's narrower interests may prevail. I guess we'll find out...)
I do totally agree with you, though.
Will MPs try to tack on a referendum amendment?
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Or Bill Cash.
For now it’s not even clear that we’re in a tunnel, let alone just what it is that could be the basis of agreement
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
However, other factors may also be an issue in any debate, such as health care systems and social security.
However, as we speak, he hasn't.
Hopefully Labour will retain sufficient discipline to block it.
Fantastic film marred only slightly by my remembering a spoiler I read about six months ago about half way through.
https://twitter.com/DaveClark_AFP/status/1182632045396267008?s=20
It is either all in, or all out. (As the bishop said to the actress)
Labour delaying tactics will lose them yet more votes
Hasn't got a 'non-charitable-giving bone' in his body.
If labour know the LDs and SNP support an election they'd be mad not to also vote for one. They'd look utterly ridiculous hiding from it
He could probably talk her in to converting to Catholicism....
OK maybe not...
The motion on the deal then has to be translated into the WAIB and you need a decent majority to be sure it can survive all its stages .
I’d say at least a 20 majority is needed .
We will stand beside them at all costs if they wish to stay in the UK
Seems a bit tasty to me. They don't always play well but they do tend to win.
You mean ..
"We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old."
Boris wil get a quick amendment to the FTPA with support of the SNP and Lib Dems and labour are heading for a disaster if they even try to oppose. Indeed with Corbyn admitting he will stand down if he loses, it is likely to result in an anti labour field day
Including myself . And the revoke pledge by the Lib Dems hasn’t gone down well .
I think you might be surprised at how many Remainers will support a deal . I suppose it depends on what’s the biggest fear .
I’m more worried about no deal than staying in the EU . A deal means there’s goodwill left , and a chance to develop a strong relationship with the EU going forward .
A no deal trashes everything , I’m simply not willing to gamble in the hope of a second vote .