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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

On a big political day the money on Betfair, according to the detdata.io has been going on the next general election taking place next year or later. This option has just edged December from the favourite slot.

Read the full story here

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Am I first?

IanB2

Second like the LibDems

isam

2019 is actually favourite though

JackW

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Am I first?

No. Disqualified for want of certainty.

Nigel_Foremain

The further off the GE is the better chance that one of the two main parties might come to their senses and junk their inappropriate "leaders"

Richard_Nabavi

One for @viewcode:

“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.

Alphabet_Soup

It would be a game changer if Corbyn promised to step down in the event of Labour winning.

TheWhiteRabbit

Being cynical here:

If Johnson believes that the Benn Act will need to be complied with, but the prospect of an extension is politically toxic, isn't the realistic prospect of a deal emerging the best possible fig leaf for this extension (and if necessary election)?

Nigel_Foremain

Richard_Nabavi said:

One for @viewcode:

“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.

Perhaps even Bozo has figured that under such conditions he might even struggle to beat Corbyn in a GE

isam

What should be the betting odds on ‘first to happen Leave the EU or GE’?

Ronniem

Can Brexit be reversed or is it too late? I would say take it back to the ballot. What do you think?

Nigelb

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

viewcode

@Richard_Nabavi , @Nigel_Foremain : I have noted your comments, thank you.

DougSeal

isam said:

2019 is actually favourite though

The chart in the thread header is taken from this market.

MikeSmithson

isam said:

2019 is actually favourite though

Different market. Mine relates to the month of the next general election

Chris

Richard_Nabavi said:

One for @viewcode:

“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.

Certainly that's what the betting markets would indicate. Over the past couple of days sterling has risen by about 4 cents against the dollar, while the probability of No Deal has dropped by maybe 7-8 percentage points.

It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.

justin124

IanB2 said:

Second like the LibDems

LDs back in third place - even with Yougov.

IanB2

Remarkable weather in the central US - some areas have gone from record high temperatures to record low temperatures in just a couple of weeks, with temperature drops of up to 20C from one day to the next. Yet warm weather is forecast to return next week!

TheValiant

Ronniem said:

Can Brexit be reversed or is it too late? I would say take it back to the ballot. What do you think?

If a Deal emerges, and gets past both the EU and Parliament, Brexit is pretty much guaranteed.

Hate to say it, but Rejoin will not have enough traction (Actually, I don't hate to say it). Hardcore Remainers like Grieve, their only chance is an extension followed by GE at which either Labour or LD win (or both).

IanB2

JackW said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Am I first?

No. Disqualified for want of certainty.

Then I am definitely first

Anorak

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

One for @viewcode:

“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.

Certainly that's what the betting markets would indicate. Over the past couple of days sterling has risen by about 4 cents against the dollar, while the probability of No Deal has dropped by maybe 7-8 percentage points.

It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.

Given a lot of the more strident leavers thought a depreciating pound was a great thing, there's been very little said about how this sterling rally is actually a disaster.

Chris

I hadn't seen Macron's comment on the prospects for a deal, reported by the BBC - "Let's wait for the next few hours."

Stocky

Corbyn isn`t going anywhere soon i last time he lost an election he claimed to have won t. He is their Fidel Castro, and won`t resign until a socialist successor is bedded-in and stamped with Corbyn`s approval.

Long-Bailey or Pidcock. But not yet.

Richard_Nabavi

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

Yellow_Submarine

On topic this is why I took the Meeks/Casino tip and bet heavily ( by my standards ) on 2020 or later. Even if there was a deal there would need to be a technical extension for ratification. Once Boris' pre 31/10 election was vetoed there is just no time this year.

isam

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

2019 is actually favourite though

Different market. Mine relates to the month of the next general election

I know, but I think it’s inaccurate to say ‘2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held’, when 2019 is odds on. 2020 isn’t a month

Perhaps misleading is more accurate... than ‘inaccurate’!

Chris

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

In four years' time, we could be doing this all again.

Pulpstar

Anorak said:

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

One for @viewcode:

“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.

Certainly that's what the betting markets would indicate. Over the past couple of days sterling has risen by about 4 cents against the dollar, while the probability of No Deal has dropped by maybe 7-8 percentage points.

It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.

Given a lot of the more strident leavers thought a depreciating pound was a great thing, there's been very little said about how this sterling rally is actually a disaster.

A return to USD-GBP 1.3/ EUR 1.2 and then ... stability would suit me fine.

Byronic

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

Anorak

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

I think that's covered (in part) by:
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232128148426753

148grss

https://twitter.com/DaveClark_AFP/status/1182632045396267008

Pulpstar

I'm still -40 This year/+80 the next, most recent top up in the betting markets was against Clinton whose comments designed to sell more of her books have been mistaken by plenty as alluding to a presidential run.

Anorak

Pulpstar said:

Anorak said:

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

One for @viewcode:

“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.

Certainly that's what the betting markets would indicate. Over the past couple of days sterling has risen by about 4 cents against the dollar, while the probability of No Deal has dropped by maybe 7-8 percentage points.

It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.

Given a lot of the more strident leavers thought a depreciating pound was a great thing, there's been very little said about how this sterling rally is actually a disaster.

A return to USD-GBP 1.3/ EUR 1.2 and then ... stability would suit me fine.

That seems like a sweet landing spot, if maybe teeny bit low for sterling. But as we do most of our business in USD and EUR, perhaps I shouldn't complain.

Byronic

Anorak said:

Pulpstar said:

Anorak said:

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

One for @viewcode:

“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.

Certainly that's what the betting markets would indicate. Over the past couple of days sterling has risen by about 4 cents against the dollar, while the probability of No Deal has dropped by maybe 7-8 percentage points.

It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.

Given a lot of the more strident leavers thought a depreciating pound was a great thing, there's been very little said about how this sterling rally is actually a disaster.

A return to USD-GBP 1.3/ EUR 1.2 and then ... stability would suit me fine.

That seems like a sweet landing spot, if maybe teeny bit low for sterling. But as we do most of our business in USD and EUR, perhaps I shouldn't complain.

If a deal is done £ will go back to $1.40, ish

Nigel_Foremain

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

It will go on for years and years. Cameron's brainstorm that caused him to think a referendum was a good idea is similarto which ever diplomat or politician said "I know, let's guarantee the border integrity of Belgium"

justin124

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

If we get as far as a transition period, how open would the EU be to a new UK Government wishing to revoke?

Pulpstar

Anorak said:

Pulpstar said:

Anorak said:

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

One for @viewcode:

“There’s nothing complicated about the sterling rally we’ve seen over the past two days: no deal risk has fallen, and the pound has rallied accordingly. From our perspective there are two key takeaways from this week’s price action; firstly that marginal changes in no-deal risk still have a dramatic effect on sterling and secondly, that at this point the market’s estimation of no-deal risk is actually very low. Therefore, if talks collapse the sterling reaction will be seismic."

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, quoted on the Guardian Business Live blog.

Certainly that's what the betting markets would indicate. Over the past couple of days sterling has risen by about 4 cents against the dollar, while the probability of No Deal has dropped by maybe 7-8 percentage points.

It suggests not all that much upside for the pound in the event of a deal, but huge downside in the event of No Deal.

Given a lot of the more strident leavers thought a depreciating pound was a great thing, there's been very little said about how this sterling rally is actually a disaster.

A return to USD-GBP 1.3/ EUR 1.2 and then ... stability would suit me fine.

That seems like a sweet landing spot, if maybe teeny bit low for sterling. But as we do most of our business in USD and EUR, perhaps I shouldn't complain.

It's GBP suddenly being 1.4 for the Euros which could conceivably happen upon revocation which would be very hurtful for exporters though. I note it was 1.3 on 23 June 2016 immediately prior to the vote, I'm not sure where the underlying trend "but for the expectation of Brexit" is.

Once any form of leave (With a deal) is secured all the pressure politically of actually leaving is relieved so one might expect sterling to climb as we'd be into a very long transition period followed by a close FTA.

Richard_Nabavi

Byronic said:

If a deal is done £ will go back to $1.40, ish

If done and passed in the Commons, yes, I'd think around $1.40. If there's still uncertainty with an extension and possible GE, with No Deal probably off the table, I'd expect it to bounce around the $1.25 ish mark. If thngs collapse and No Deal suddenly looks very likely to happen despite the Benn Act, around $1.05.

All guesses, of course!

nichomar

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

Would we not the trade with the EU on GATT XXIV correctly used as we would be in talks about a FTA

ozymandias

justin124 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

If we get as far as a transition period, how open would the EU be to a new UK Government wishing to revoke?

None. We would have left already. We'll have to re-apply.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1182646821870538754

https://twitter.com/toby_ashken/status/1182644367338754051

Richard_Nabavi

justin124 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

If we get as far as a transition period, how open would the EU be to a new UK Government wishing to revoke?

Anyone's guess in practice. In principle I'm sure they'd be delighted, but not if UK politics continued to look chaotic and thus they would fear that the entire debilitating psychodrama might happen all over again.

rkrkrk

On the Corbyn resignation thing, I think McDonnell is just stating the obvious. The reason it's news is because some people had convinced themselves Corbyn wanted to stay leader for ever.

If the theory is that parties choose leaders based on the perceived failings/characteristics of their predecessor, then I'd imagine a young, female, non-London, very-pro EU MP who is on the more outspoken/ruder side and a bit less turn the other cheek/pacifist.

Sounds like Jess Philips to me.

Sunil_Prasannan

148grss said:

https://twitter.com/DaveClark_AFP/status/1182632045396267008

?
Sarah Palin

justin124

ozymandias said:

justin124 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

If we get as far as a transition period, how open would the EU be to a new UK Government wishing to revoke?

None. We would have left already. We'll have to re-apply.

'Where there is a will there is a way!'. If following a GE a new Government indicated it wished to revisit the WA, would the EU definitely rule out a return to the Status Quo Ante?

Nigelb

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1182646821870538754

This some kind of effort to boost his popularity ?

Stark_Dawning

We have a PM known as 'Boris',
At whom all the ladies go 'Phwoar! Is
He really for Leave?
For he's sure to achieve
Adulation beyond where their core is.'

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

Byronic said:

If a deal is done £ will go back to $1.40, ish

If done and passed in the Commons, yes, I'd think around $1.40. If there's still uncertainty with an extension and possible GE, with No Deal probably off the table, I'd expect it to bounce around the $1.25 ish mark. If thngs collapse and No Deal suddenly looks very likely to happen despite the Benn Act, around $1.05.

All guesses, of course!

I think $1.30 more likely than 1.40, FWIW.

justin124

Richard_Nabavi said:

justin124 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

If we get as far as a transition period, how open would the EU be to a new UK Government wishing to revoke?

Anyone's guess in practice. In principle I'm sure they'd be delighted, but not if UK politics continued to look chaotic and thus they would fear that the entire debilitating psychodrama might happen all over again.

That makes sense - but it also might mean that any Johnson Deal would not be the endpoint following a GE.

Nigelb

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

Richard_Tyndall

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

Having read it, isn't the ptoblem with his argument the fact that he is negotiating deals with third countries who have not doesnt the last 40 years in complete alignment with the EU. Much of the timescale he is tslking about is dealing with questions of how to achieve mutually acceptable alignment which mayvrequire significant changes by each side.

The UK is starting from a point of complete alignment and we will therefore be concentrating on mechanisms and areas where divergence might be desired going forwards.

Pulpstar

rkrkrk said:

On the Corbyn resignation thing, I think McDonnell is just stating the obvious. The reason it's news is because some people had convinced themselves Corbyn wanted to stay leader for ever.

If the theory is that parties choose leaders based on the perceived failings/characteristics of their predecessor, then I'd imagine a young, female, non-London, very-pro EU MP who is on the more outspoken/ruder side and a bit less turn the other cheek/pacifist.

Sounds like Jess Philips to me.

One for long odds indeed.

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

That was one of the questions to which I simply don't have an answer.

ozymandias

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

Crap analogy. The joy and wonder of a first baby's birth overrides any and all problems. You would die for that little bundle of joy without question. Unless you're an individual who cares more about yourself and your previous life instead of the little baby looking up at you.

viewcode

Richard_Nabavi said:

Byronic said:

If a deal is done £ will go back to $1.40, ish

If done and passed in the Commons, yes, I'd think around $1.40. If there's still uncertainty with an extension and possible GE, with No Deal probably off the table, I'd expect it to bounce around the $1.25 ish mark. If thngs collapse and No Deal suddenly looks very likely to happen despite the Benn Act, around $1.05.

All guesses, of course!

And not bad guesses at that, at least IMHO. So I have a lot to think about...

Richard_Tyndall

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

18 wonderful years of very welcome disruption.

I am saying that more as a father than a Brexiteer

Yellow_Submarine

justin124 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

Yes, it's well worth reading. One question which hasn't been considered properly is, if we do leave with a deal, what happens at the end of the transition period? There's no realistic chance that we'd have an FTA legally watertight and ratified by then, so that means extending the transition, probably for a few more years eventually. The political ramifications of that would be.. interesting.

If we get as far as a transition period, how open would the EU be to a new UK Government wishing to revoke?

We can't revoke in the Transition period because we've left. We could rejoin and we'd already be in total alignment. But there is a set legal process for that and it's slow. It also requires ratification by all 27 states. They all have a veto as well as us rejoining on inferior terms to the status quo ante. I just can't see it.

timmo

It's actually the same as before.... briefing to EP is that UK have proposed going back to the old NI backstop with border in Irish Sea. The thing that TM the PM said "no UK Prime Minister could countenance".

What Jason J hunter is saying on Twitter a out proceedings

Noo

Stark_Dawning said:

We have a PM known as 'Boris',
At whom all the ladies go 'Phwoar! Is
He really for Leave?
For he's sure to achieve
Adulation beyond where their core is.'

There once was a PM named Boris,
Enterobius vermicularis
Trypanosoma brucei
Sarcoptes scabiei
A veritable Pthirus pubis

148grss

ozymandias said:

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

Crap analogy. The joy and wonder of a first baby's birth overrides any and all problems. You would die for that little bundle of joy without question. Unless you're an individual who cares more about yourself and your previous life instead of the little baby looking up at you.

Are you saying that when a couple finds out they're having a child that they shouldn't think about anything beyond birthing day? Coz that sounds like bad advice to me...

OblitusSumMe

timmo said:

It's actually the same as before.... briefing to EP is that UK have proposed going back to the old NI backstop with border in Irish Sea. The thing that TM the PM said "no UK Prime Minister could countenance".

What Jason J hunter is saying on Twitter a out proceedings

The difference being that there is a consent mechanism - as suggested by loads of people for ages - so it wouldn't be a matter of abandoning them, or imposing it on them.

beentheredonethat

Will the prospect of a “Boris Brexit” focus the minds of the remainer opposition in the HoC on a VONC? If they really wish to stop Brexit then they would need to get their skates on.

Anorak

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

Having read it, isn't the ptoblem with his argument the fact that he is negotiating deals with third countries who have not doesnt the last 40 years in complete alignment with the EU. Much of the timescale he is tslking about is dealing with questions of how to achieve mutually acceptable alignment which mayvrequire significant changes by each side.

The UK is starting from a point of complete alignment and we will therefore be concentrating on mechanisms and areas where divergence might be desired going forwards.

That's a very good point, although there remain a great many hoops to jump through.

The problem (may) be that neither the general public nor the press have shown the slightest interest in trade deals prior to Brexit. Such discussion have not exactly been secret, but no one really gave a shit about the finer details. Thus progress was made.

If the negotiators are facing endless leaks and Telegraph front pages over every negotiating point it will make a rapid resolution nigh-on impossible, alignment or not.

148grss

Interesting reporting. This fits the Johnsonian "and to the naysayers, and doomster, etc" idea that all it takes is will and force of personality to get concessions out of johnny foreigner, and that he could do even more if there was a GE where he was given a thumping majority.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1182608462095753216

ozymandias

148grss said:

ozymandias said:

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

Crap analogy. The joy and wonder of a first baby's birth overrides any and all problems. You would die for that little bundle of joy without question. Unless you're an individual who cares more about yourself and your previous life instead of the little baby looking up at you.

Are you saying that when a couple finds out they're having a child that they shouldn't think about anything beyond birthing day? Coz that sounds like bad advice to me...

Of course you think about it. But you don't start from the position of "18 years of total disruption to our previous lives".

You think how will we adapt to the new baby in our lives - what do we need to change.

I'm saying its a crap analogy and it is. I'm sure there are plenty others to make his point - it's just that it's not this one.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182652554192281600

Yellow_Submarine

The changes to the future relationship in the PD are so enormous the Backstop isn't a backstop. It's an end state. There is simply no way NI can diverge from the Republic to the extent Johnson is planning for GB. So the DUP has a monumental call to make. Is preserving the Union better served by being a Willow or an Oak on the backstop given it will be permanent ?

148grss

Anorak said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

Having read it, isn't the ptoblem with his argument the fact that he is negotiating deals with third countries who have not doesnt the last 40 years in complete alignment with the EU. Much of the timescale he is tslking about is dealing with questions of how to achieve mutually acceptable alignment which mayvrequire significant changes by each side.

The UK is starting from a point of complete alignment and we will therefore be concentrating on mechanisms and areas where divergence might be desired going forwards.

That's a very good point, although there remain a great many hoops to jump through.

The problem (may) be that neither the general public nor the press have shown the slightest interest in trade deals prior to Brexit. Such discussion have not exactly been secret, but no one really gave a shit about the finer details. Thus progress was made.

If the negotiators are facing endless leaks and Telegraph front pages over every negotiating point it will make a rapid resolution nigh-on impossible, alignment or not.

Yeah, you think the stuff about chlorinated chicken is bad? Wait until the press learn the US sells wormy pork, and that any deal will likely make all farming in the UK massively unprofitable.

SquareRoot

148grss said:

Interesting reporting. This fits the Johnsonian "and to the naysayers, and doomster, etc" idea that all it takes is will and force of personality to get concessions out of johnny foreigner, and that he could do even more if there was a GE where he was given a thumping majority.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1182608462095753216

BBC journo states the bleeding obvious./

Noo

ozymandias said:

148grss said:

ozymandias said:

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

Crap analogy. The joy and wonder of a first baby's birth overrides any and all problems. You would die for that little bundle of joy without question. Unless you're an individual who cares more about yourself and your previous life instead of the little baby looking up at you.

Are you saying that when a couple finds out they're having a child that they shouldn't think about anything beyond birthing day? Coz that sounds like bad advice to me...

Of course you think about it. But you don't start from the position of "18 years of total disruption to our previous lives".

You think how will we adapt to the new baby in our lives - what do we need to change.

I'm saying its a crap analogy and it is. I'm sure there are plenty others to make his point - it's just that it's not this one.

A newborn baby might start life as a helpless and useless wretch, that does nothing but shit and scream, but over many years of careful nurture, love and attention, it can grow into a teenager that truly despises you

Foxy

Stark_Dawning said:

We have a PM known as 'Boris',
At whom all the ladies go 'Phwoar! Is
He really for Leave?
For he's sure to achieve
Adulation beyond where their core is.'

There once was a PM called Boris,
A scholar of Plato and Horace,
He would bluster and lie,
In a ditch he would die,
A great boost to the followers of Wallace

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1182653082850746369

148grss

SquareRoot said:

148grss said:

Interesting reporting. This fits the Johnsonian "and to the naysayers, and doomster, etc" idea that all it takes is will and force of personality to get concessions out of johnny foreigner, and that he could do even more if there was a GE where he was given a thumping majority.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1182608462095753216

BBC journo states the bleeding obvious./

Considering all those people counting chickens already, I do find this journos statement of the bleeding obvious useful. And her comments about EU cynicism with Johnson just negotiating a deal to be seen to get concessions from EU for the purpose of a GE rather than to actually pass a deal is not something much discussed.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182652554192281600

Swinford and the Telegraph can fuck off with their ERG fan service bleatings.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182652554192281600

Swinford and the Telegraph can fuck off with their ERG fan service bleatings.

Swinford is now at the Times.

SquareRoot

148grss said:

SquareRoot said:

148grss said:

Interesting reporting. This fits the Johnsonian "and to the naysayers, and doomster, etc" idea that all it takes is will and force of personality to get concessions out of johnny foreigner, and that he could do even more if there was a GE where he was given a thumping majority.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1182608462095753216

BBC journo states the bleeding obvious./

Considering all those people counting chickens already, I do find this journos statement of the bleeding obvious useful. And her comments about EU cynicism with Johnson just negotiating a deal to be seen to get concessions from EU for the purpose of a GE rather than to actually pass a deal is not something much discussed.

Who are counting chickens already? please specify.

Yellow_Submarine

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182652554192281600

Swinford and the Telegraph can fuck off with their ERG fan service bleatings.

Swinford has moved to The Times. Though his reporting tone hasn't changed much so he seems to have been hired for his eurosceptic contacts.

Noo

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

We have a PM known as 'Boris',
At whom all the ladies go 'Phwoar! Is
He really for Leave?
For he's sure to achieve
Adulation beyond where their core is.'

There once was a PM called Boris,
A scholar of Plato and Horace,
He would bluster and lie,
In a ditch he would die,
A great boost to the followers of Wallace

That's actually pretty good. Too many syllables in the last line, which reminds me

There once was a man from Japan
Whose verses never would scan
When asked why it was,
he said "it's because
I always try to fit as many words in the last line as I possibly can."

TheScreamingEagles

So we're headed for MV4 I reckon.

Boris will scare the ERG in to backing the deal otherwise the House will revoke A50 as No Deal doesn't respect the referendum campaign.

Boris will also scare Remain inclined MPs into backing his deal because he'll say he'll lawfully circumvent the Benn act.

malcolmg

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

18 wonderful years of very welcome disruption.

I am saying that more as a father than a Brexiteer

It does not stop after 18 years, I am still being disrupted at more than double that

148grss

SquareRoot said:

148grss said:

SquareRoot said:

148grss said:

Interesting reporting. This fits the Johnsonian "and to the naysayers, and doomster, etc" idea that all it takes is will and force of personality to get concessions out of johnny foreigner, and that he could do even more if there was a GE where he was given a thumping majority.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1182608462095753216

BBC journo states the bleeding obvious./

Considering all those people counting chickens already, I do find this journos statement of the bleeding obvious useful. And her comments about EU cynicism with Johnson just negotiating a deal to be seen to get concessions from EU for the purpose of a GE rather than to actually pass a deal is not something much discussed.

Who are counting chickens already? please specify.

From previous thread (which I accept you may not have contributed to), many posters here, such as @Byronic

DecrepitJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182652554192281600

ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg is now inside the Boris/Cummings tent, pissing out.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1182655445577674754

Noo

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182652554192281600

ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg is now inside the Boris/Cummings tent, pissing out.

He's more of a breadstick than a big cheese.

malcolmg

148grss said:

ozymandias said:

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

Crap analogy. The joy and wonder of a first baby's birth overrides any and all problems. You would die for that little bundle of joy without question. Unless you're an individual who cares more about yourself and your previous life instead of the little baby looking up at you.

Are you saying that when a couple finds out they're having a child that they shouldn't think about anything beyond birthing day? Coz that sounds like bad advice to me...

He is talking reality you turnip.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1182642002803994624?s=20

Richard_Tyndall

malcolmg said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

18 wonderful years of very welcome disruption.

I am saying that more as a father than a Brexiteer

It does not stop after 18 years, I am still being disrupted at more than double that

And I assume it has never made you regret it.

malcolmg

Richard_Tyndall said:

malcolmg said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

18 wonderful years of very welcome disruption.

I am saying that more as a father than a Brexiteer

It does not stop after 18 years, I am still being disrupted at more than double that

And I assume it has never made you regret it.

Not at all

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Kate_M_Proctor/status/1182656644712468481

So that's a no?

MaxPB

If the Boris deal has the happy side effect of forcing Labour to dump Jez as well as ending the career of Nige then it's literally a triple win.

148grss

I don't tend to look at these threads at the weekend, but I will be interested in seeing how posters here react to (if it is the case) Johnson having a sea border with NI as his compromise on Monday.

Harris_Tweed

Presumably if there's a majority for the deal, there'll be a majority to overturn these? (I guess either will require the acquiescence of some fairly spartan Leavers)

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1182654265287958530?s=20

Noo

148grss said:

I don't tend to look at these threads at the weekend, but I will be interested in seeing how posters here react to (if it is the case) Johnson having a sea border with NI as his compromise on Monday.

I already know my reaction; it's pointless. Why not have the UK in the customs union and single market. It's the compromise we have gotten to 3 years ago.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1182657236151222281

Harris_Tweed

Hnag on.. I thought it was the *Remainer* ministers they had to keep on resignation watch?

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182654334372384772?s=20

Foxy

Noo said:

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

We have a PM known as 'Boris',
At whom all the ladies go 'Phwoar! Is
He really for Leave?
For he's sure to achieve
Adulation beyond where their core is.'

There once was a PM called Boris,
A scholar of Plato and Horace,
He would bluster and lie,
In a ditch he would die,
A great boost to the followers of Wallace

That's actually pretty good. Too many syllables in the last line, which reminds me

There once was a man from Japan
Whose verses never would scan
When asked why it was,
he said "it's because
I always try to fit as many words in the last line as I possibly can."

Not a bad postprandial poetry effort, delete the "great" in the last line, then it scans better.

There once was a PM called Boris,
A scholar of Plato and Horace,
He would bluster and lie,
In a ditch he would die,
A boost to the followers of Wallace

Nigelb

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Byronic said:

Nigelb said:

Don't know if anyone posted this twitter thread, but it bears reading in full;

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232085114826752

...

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232133441638401

If more time is needed for a FTA, then more time will be found.

All that matters is Brexiting. Honouring the vote.

Once that is done the EU will swiftly return to being a 2nd or even 3rd order issue (even if it shouldn't). We will all presume there are girly swots working on the boring deets, and focus on other stuff. If the government says in 2021, Oh we need three more years to complete paragraphs 19-392 of section B of the proposed EU-GB trading arrangement provisional treaty (baked goods), then no one is gonna man the barricades.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232141742116865

18 wonderful years of very welcome disruption.

I am saying that more as a father than a Brexiteer

Indeed, parenthood has its rewards. Brexit, on the other hand...

Noo

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1182657236151222281

Every woman in the world will recognise this:
1. She comes up with an idea.
2. A man dismisses it.
3. Later, that same man comes up with the same idea all by himself!
4. Man gets the applause.

Andy_Cooke

148grss said:

Interesting reporting. This fits the Johnsonian "and to the naysayers, and doomster, etc" idea that all it takes is will and force of personality to get concessions out of johnny foreigner, and that he could do even more if there was a GE where he was given a thumping majority.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1182608462095753216

To be fair, though, the hardcore ERG and DUP were never on board with the Deal before, anyway.
If he can hold ERG rebellion down as much as possible by threats of deselection/withdrawal of whip/"I'll bloody well revoke if you keep pissing around" to the level of the 3rd Meaningful Vote, hold the rest of those who voted for it, and add the 18 Kinnockios, he gets to 304-326.
Add in Norman Lamb from the LDs (he's on the all-group-for-a-Deal lot) and it's 305-325. He has to switch just 10 more.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1182606458233507845