It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
The GFA basically decided Northern Ireland remains together, whichever country it goes with. Although I don't believe in demographic destiny. Especially as the world secularises.
The GFA is dead and has been since the suspension of Stormont and as the current backstop row show
The GFA is not dead. Both sides are wholly committed to it.
The DUP are not and never supported it in the first place, they only tolerated it when Paisley was First Minister, Foster has little time for it and certainly not if it is used to ignore the wishes of her Protestant and Unionist voters
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
This is getting good....the remainiacs are on the rack tonight..admittedly it may not be for long but let's enjoy this whilst it lasts.
The desire to frame everything as triumph or surrender is what is preventing a deal. Many of us Remainers are very happy to have a workable deal that can bring the country together.
I couldn’t agree more . The media especially will like to frame this as one side winning .
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
Nor will many others
Of ourse from a Brexit-sceptic position, the deal emerging is worse than the one rejected three times. You can argue it's their own fault by not voting for the previous one, and the Tories have moved in the direction of where people will switch their voters from No to Yes, but it's a heck of an explanation needed on the doorsteps to why you voted against T May's deal with the workers rights guarantees etc, and then for Boris's deal without them. Easy to campaign against Labour figures trying to defend that.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic without its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic against its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
How is it any different from forcing Derry to stay in Northern Ireland against its will?
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
Suppose there’s a deal (still a big if) and it squeaks through Parliament.
I can see what Labour might then do (focus on austerity and the baby eating Tories, and on not signing deals with Trump etc), and I can see what the LibDems might do (there must be 20-25% in a rejoin platform). Not much changes for the Scots Nats.
But what about all the independents? The No Deal dragon is slain, so they presumably now have no interest in a Remainer Government (could now only be Corbyn and they won’t support him). So we can take VONC off the table.
Letwin type ex-Tories may retake the whip, but presumably a few won’t. Will they, and Soubry’s mob, unofficially offer confidence and supply for a bit? They will presumably be scared of an election, absent their dragon to slay.
A situation in which the PM squeaks a deal through but can’t pass a Queen’s Speech or Budget (but isn’t no confidenced) would be bizarre.
With a deal, I mostly go along with the idea of no election until the Spring, but there will need to be a Finance Bill before that. It’s going to be weird. So a bit of me still wonders if, with Corbyn now having nothing to lose, we don’t end up with a November/December election anyway. Dunno.
But if you’re Corbyn, why give him why he wants just after a big victory. Surely you let the Government lose votes and look week? We are then left with no Budget without Independent help though. Pork barrel enters the U.K.?
If he introduces a bill that says 'notwithstanding the FTPA, the date of the next election will be.......' he needs a majority only. He will get that with LD and SNP support (and amendment free passage through the Lords if theyve agreed)
Labour could seek to delay the passage of such a Bill via amendments etc at various stages and would not co-operate in expediting it through Parliament.
Like the Tories did with the Benn Act?
Without the full support of the Opposition , the Benn Act would have taken a good deal longer.
You are sounding desperate Justin.
Boris wil get a quick amendment to the FTPA with support of the SNP and Lib Dems and labour are heading for a disaster if they even try to oppose. Indeed with Corbyn admitting he will stand down if he loses, it is likely to result in an anti labour field day
The public at large would not be interested in the detail of such Parliamentary procedures. Moreover, a non-Brexit election would be unlikely to suit the LDs.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Remember that Remainers have money, and are generally not stupid
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
The big difference is that most people have been long sick of Brexit.
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
If he has done that pivot - which I agree is the only Deal that has ever looked likely - the big question now is whether he can close and deliver it without first winning a GE. Perhaps he can but it looks challenging in the extreme.
I don't think it's THAT bad for him in the House.
I think new independents who back MV3 will back MV4, plus some of the Spartans. Those that favour revoke/referendum probably won't budge.
That means gaining 12-15 Labour MPs (so far: 3(!)) and the DUP.
Labour now needs to take a leaf from Johnson's book by making it clear that any Labour MP who votes for his Deal will lose the Whip and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election. A few - Hoey, Mann and Fitzpatrick - will not be deterred by that.
It's the Old Mrs Mait is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Noic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic against its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
How is it any different from forcing Derry to stay in Northern Ireland against its will?
As I said I have no problem with Catholic majority counties joining the Republic and indeed for decades the IRA and nationalist terrorist organisations fought a bombing campaign to ensure that against direct rule from London. Only powersharing at Stormont between Protestant and Nationalist settled that, direct rule from Dublin for all of Northern Ireland would start up another terrorist war only this time from the Unionist side and the old loyalist paramilitaries
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic without its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
But keeping Derry in NI against its will is okay then is it?
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
There's no "that will be that" about NI.
NI Catholics tribally vote for nationalists more out of residual fear and loathing of the Unionists (and a fair dollop of fear of the IRA) than any deep love for either civilised Ireland or the pseudo-Catholic racketeering psychopaths who've been terrorising them for the past century.
Even during the heady days of the Celtic Tiger, most preferred to keep their UK passports and their UK welfare state to what Dublin offered. If both NI and Britain stay in the EU, most NI Catholics will be mightily relieved - and keep on making the most of their dual nationality.
Obviously, that'd be changed if Prod politicians became greater or lesser arseholes, if the IRA and its political wing stopped - or stepped up - its criminality, if the UK really did leave the EU or (though this is the least likely) if the Brits started taking NI seriously.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
The big difference is that most people have been long sick of Brexit.
It’s the idealogical position. Sides have now been taken. Those with a European focus still have a European focus. They are not going to shrug say “oh well” any more than other ideologically motivated individuals.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Not with Corbyn
They voted for him in 2017 and on the basis of the polls would have done so six months ago. The dominance of Brexit caused a significant uptick in LibDem support - which would be likely to fall back if the issue largely disappears from the radar.
Is it me or have remainers been stunned into silence? The lib dem spin op seems to have shut down this afternoon
Remainers aren’t all determined to have another vote . A straw poll of 5 friends who I’d class as ardent Remainers is a slam dunk to accept the deal .
Including myself . And the revoke pledge by the Lib Dems hasn’t gone down well .
I think you might be surprised at how many Remainers will support a deal . I suppose it depends on what’s the biggest fear .
I’m more worried about no deal than staying in the EU . A deal means there’s goodwill left , and a chance to develop a strong relationship with the EU going forward .
A no deal trashes everything , I’m simply not willing to gamble in the hope of a second vote .
Details aside (and of course that's a ridiculous premise) I think that everyone sees some sort of a deal as a fairly good outcome. Turning the details back on, that's where the problems start.
If Brexit had been about simply throwing a switch the morning after the referendum there would have been few that wouldn't have agreed to it. (The likes of Soubry only)
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
But we have had an election since the referendum, and the Lib Dems came nowhere
This is getting good....the remainiacs are on the rack tonight..admittedly it may not be for long but let's enjoy this whilst it lasts.
The desire to frame everything as triumph or surrender is what is preventing a deal. Many of us Remainers are very happy to have a workable deal that can bring the country together.
Is it me or have remainers been stunned into silence? The lib dem spin op seems to have shut down this afternoon
Remainers aren’t all determined to have another vote . A straw poll of 5 friends who I’d class as ardent Remainers is a slam dunk to accept the deal .
Including myself . And the revoke pledge by the Lib Dems hasn’t gone down well .
I think you might be surprised at how many Remainers will support a deal . I suppose it depends on what’s the biggest fear .
I’m more worried about no deal than staying in the EU . A deal means there’s goodwill left , and a chance to develop a strong relationship with the EU going forward .
A no deal trashes everything , I’m simply not willing to gamble in the hope of a second vote .
Agree, I voted Remain but we are where we are - there needs to be a deal for the sake of the economy, end of story.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Not with Corbyn
They voted for him in 2017 and on the basis of the polls would have done so six months ago. The dominance of Brexit caused a significant uptick in LibDem support - which would be likely to fall back if the issue largely disappears from the radar.
Brexit will not be off the radar for years, 2017 is a distant memory, and Corbyn lost anyway
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Noic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic against its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
How is it any different from forcing Derry to stay in Northern Ireland against its will?
As I said I have no problem with Catholic majority counties joining the Republic and indeed for decades the IRA and nationalist terrorist organisations fought a bombing campaign to ensure that against direct rule from London. Only powersharing at Stormont between Protestant and Nationalist settled that, direct rule from Dublin for all of Northern Ireland would start up another terrorist war only this time from the Unionist side and the old loyalist paramilitaries
Don’t see why. There are still Orange Order Marches in Donegal. They seems to have accepted being in a republic. If the Unionist population in Antrim cannot accept the democratically expressed wish of the other people of Ireland then tough. Londoners have to live with Brexit, Unionists can deal with the Six Counties returning to their rightful jurisdiction
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
The big difference is that most people have been long sick of Brexit.
It’s the idealogical position. Sides have now been taken. Those with a European focus still have a European focus. They are not going to shrug say “oh well” any more than other ideologically motivated individuals.
As I have said before, even in the context of Brexit remaining a live issue , I would fully expect other issues to come to the fore during an election campaign. As 2017 clearly showed , Brexit per se is highly technical and voters would be very receptive to other matters being raised. In the event of a Deal, I suspect people would be even more inclined to move on.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic without its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
I doubt it. More likely, we'd see a lot of people moving to the mainland - Scotland in particular. Most will stay, though, and make the best of it. They'll find that life will go on.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Not with Corbyn
They voted for him in 2017 and on the basis of the polls would have done so six months ago. The dominance of Brexit caused a significant uptick in LibDem support - which would be likely to fall back if the issue largely disappears from the radar.
Brexit will not be off the radar for years, 2017 is a distant memory, and Corbyn lost anyway
He gained a significant number of seats - and the Tories also lost!
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
But we have had an election since the referendum, and the Lib Dems came nowhere
Is it me or have remainers been stunned into silence? The lib dem spin op seems to have shut down this afternoon
Remainers aren’t all determined to have another vote . A straw poll of 5 friends who I’d class as ardent Remainers is a slam dunk to accept the deal .
Including myself . And the revoke pledge by the Lib Dems hasn’t gone down well .
I think you might be surprised at how many Remainers will support a deal . I suppose it depends on what’s the biggest fear .
I’m more worried about no deal than staying in the EU . A deal means there’s goodwill left , and a chance to develop a strong relationship with the EU going forward .
A no deal trashes everything , I’m simply not willing to gamble in the hope of a second vote .
Agree, I voted Remain but we are where we are - there needs to be a deal for the sake of the economy, end of story.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join theI Republic of Ireland
I doubt it. GB will not want the expense or the hassle.
I and most Tories I know certainly will not betray the Protestant and Unionist majority in Antrim.
We will stand beside them at all costs if they wish to stay in the UK
Good for you. There are 190,000 members of the Conservative party.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Not with Corbyn
They voted for him in 2017 and on the basis of the polls would have done so six months ago. The dominance of Brexit caused a significant uptick in LibDem support - which would be likely to fall back if the issue largely disappears from the radar.
Brexit will not be off the radar for years, 2017 is a distant memory, and Corbyn lost anyway
He gained a significant number of seats - and the Tories also lost!
My dearest wish as a Tory is that all our "losses" should leave us by far the largest party and able to govern in the majority via C&S!
I’m sorry to say the Labour position in terms of the previous May deal v this one is a red herring .
The political declaration isn’t legally binding , it’s irrelevant how many guarantees are in that for rights etc.
Labour are against any deal as they can’t be seen to be aiding a Tory Brexit given the overwhelming views of the membership and MPs .
I expect if a deal comes through we’ll see the same argument about rights etc from Labour .
Labour will then whip for a confirmatory vote which will lose , the deal will pass with some Labour MPs support .
They’ll say we did our best , our official policy was a second vote , sorry about that!
And given I normally vote Labour I’m not just attacking them , the arguments against Mays deal don’t stand upto scrutiny as she could never guarantee anything .
If Labour really hate Brexit then they should have removed Corbyn and found someone who was pro EU instead of subjecting many Labour voters to two years watching this fiasco unfold .
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Not with Corbyn
They voted for him in 2017 and on the basis of the polls would have done so six months ago. The dominance of Brexit caused a significant uptick in LibDem support - which would be likely to fall back if the issue largely disappears from the radar.
Brexit will not be off the radar for years, 2017 is a distant memory, and Corbyn lost anyway
He gained a significant number of seats - and the Tories also lost!
Slightly less successful in seat gains than Michael Howard in 2005
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
But we have had an election since the referendum, and the Lib Dems came nowhere
Sure: but don't forget that the LDs also - for the first time ever in a European election - outpolled Lab and Con. And in the Local Elections this year also surged.
They may fall back. It may be that everyone just sighs and says "well, culture war over".
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Not with Corbyn
They voted for him in 2017 and on the basis of the polls would have done so six months ago. The dominance of Brexit caused a significant uptick in LibDem support - which would be likely to fall back if the issue largely disappears from the radar.
Brexit will not be off the radar for years, 2017 is a distant memory, and Corbyn lost anyway
He gained a significant number of seats - and the Tories also lost!
He won 4 more than in 2010 and won 151 less seats than Blair in 2001
Some success and he has been found out since as evidenced by disastrous personal poll ratings. He needs to go for labour to start on the road to recovery
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
But we have had an election since the referendum, and the Lib Dems came nowhere
Sure: but don't forget that the LDs also - for the first time ever in a European election - outpolled Lab and Con. And in the Local Elections this year also surged.
They may fall back. It may be that everyone just sighs and says "well, culture war over".
Bit I doubt it.
They will want an election asap to try and overhaul labour in the popular vote
Who was it that said 'a week is a long time in politics'
I predicted a Saturday Sitting of Parliament for the first time since the Falklands.
I predicted Boris would bring home a deal from the 17th/18th October Summit which he would present to Parliament in the Saturday Sitting.
So far so good.
But I also predicted Parliament would vote for the deal. That's the tricky part...
You're on a roll..... The consequences of NOT voting for a deal that Ireland and the EU support will be catastrophic for those who don't. Best guess? Labour has a three line whip abstention. "This is a Tory Brexit...everything that goes wrong from hereon in is the fault of a Toryy Brexit." Mind you, that argument worked just as well for MV1, MV2, MV3......
Who was it that said 'a week is a long time in politics'
I predicted a Saturday Sitting of Parliament for thw first time since the Falklands.
I predicted Boris would bring home a deal from the 17th/18th October Summit which he would present to Parliament in the Saturday Sitting.
So far so good.
But I also predicted Parliament would vote for the deal. That's the tricky part...
You’re doing yourself a disservice ! Lol
Parliament will vote for the deal . The ERG and DUP onside and at least half the Tory rebels will vote for it, add in around 20 Labour MPs and job done .
I will lose it completely if the deal doesn’t go through !
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Not with Corbyn
They voted for him in 2017 and on the basis of the polls would have done so six months ago. The dominance of Brexit caused a significant uptick in LibDem support - which would be likely to fall back if the issue largely disappears from the radar.
Brexit will not be off the radar for years, 2017 is a distant memory, and Corbyn lost anyway
He gained a significant number of seats - and the Tories also lost!
He won 4 more than in 2010 and won 151 less seats than Blair in 2001
Some success and he has been found out since as evidenced by disastrous personal poll ratings. He needs to go for labour to start on the road to recovery
In England & Wales he won many more than 2010 - Labour's collapse in Scotland cannot be pinned on him.. Corbyn's personal ratings remain poor - but there was a chart on here yesterday which implied his approval rate was 19% - compared with 17% in early 2017.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
But we have had an election since the referendum, and the Lib Dems came nowhere
Sure: but don't forget that the LDs also - for the first time ever in a European election - outpolled Lab and Con. And in the Local Elections this year also surged.
They may fall back. It may be that everyone just sighs and says "well, culture war over".
Bit I doubt it.
But Labour and the Tories did not take an active part in the EU elections.Both effectively abstained - as did 63% of the electorate.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of co Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic without its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
I doubt it. More likely, we'd see a lot of people moving to the mainland - Scotland in particular. Most will stay, though, and make the best of it. They'll find that life will go on.
Which if that occurred and hundreds of thousands of hardline Protestant Unionists moved to Scotland, their ancestral home albeit hundreds of years ago, would ensure Scotland's place in the UK for ever
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Noic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic against its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
How is it any different from forcing Derry to stay in Northern Ireland against its will?
As I said I have no problem with Catholic majority counties joining the Republic and indeed for decades the IRA and nationalist terrorist organisations fought a bombing campaign to ensure that against direct rule from London. Only powersharing at Stormont between Protestant and Nationalist settled that, direct rule from Dublin for all of Northern Ireland would start up another terrorist war only this time from the Unionist side and the old loyalist paramilitaries
Don’t see why. There are still Orange Order Marches in Donegal. They seems to have accepted being in a republic. If the Unionist population in Antrim cannot accept the democratically expressed wish of the other people of Ireland then tough. Londoners have to live with Brexit, Unionists can deal with the Six Counties returning to their rightful jurisdiction
Most Londoners do not want to break away from the UK and rejoin the EU even with Brexit
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Northern Ireland, is still well over 60% Protestant and Unionist and geographically the closest county to GB. Antrim will likely always be a part of the UK even if Catholic and Nationalist majority counties like Fermanagh and Tyrone join the Republic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
History is what history is
You can’t rewrite it against the will f the people today
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Noic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic against its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
How is it any different from forcing Derry to stay in Northern Ireland against its will?
As I said I have no problem with Catholic majority counties joining the Republic and indeed for decades the IRA and nationalist terrorist organisations fought a bombing campaign to ensure that against direct rule from London. Only powersharing at Stormont between Protestant and Nationalist settled that, direct rule from Dublin for all of Northern Ireland would start up another terrorist war only this time from the Unionist side and the old loyalist paramilitaries
Don’t see why. There are still Orange Order Marches in Donegal. They seems to have accepted being in a republic. If the Unionist population in Antrim cannot accept the democratically expressed wish of the other people of Ireland then tough. Londoners have to live with Brexit, Unionists can deal with the Six Counties returning to their rightful jurisdiction
Most Londoners do not want to break away from the UK and rejoin the EU even with Brexit
You’re arguing against yourself there. It’s one thing to oppose a united Ireland, but quite another to support a second partition.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Maybe, but I'm struck by how the SNP did after the IndyRef and UKIP kept growing after the Lisbon Treaty non-referendum. Sometimes a defeat to make your supporters feel they have to fight as underdogs is remarkably potent.
But we have had an election since the referendum, and the Lib Dems came nowhere
Sure: but don't forget that the LDs also - for the first time ever in a European election - outpolled Lab and Con. And in the Local Elections this year also surged.
They may fall back. It may be that everyone just sighs and says "well, culture war over".
Bit I doubt it.
But Labour and the Tories did not take an active part in the EU elections.Both effectively abstained - as did 63% of the electorate.
As I said, it's quite possible that the LibDems fall back to the low teens or worse. Indeed, I'd reckon it's probably a 25-30% chance.
I just find you extraordinarily complacent about things turning out as you expect.
It's the Old Mrs Mait is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.
County Antrim is the largest in Noic of Ireland
You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.
So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties
Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.
Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic against its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland
How is it any different from forcing Derry to stay in Northern Ireland against its will?
As I said I have no problem with Catholic majority counties joining the Republic and indeed for decades the IRA and nationalist terrorist organisations fought a bombing campaign to ensure that against direct rule from London. Only powersharing at Stormont between Protestant and Nationalist settled that, direct rule from Dublin for all of Northern Ireland would start up another terrorist war only this time from the Unionist side and the old loyalist paramilitaries
You do know that the only reason Fermanagh and Tyrone were shoe-horned into NI in the first place was that the Unionists didn't see how a less than six county statelet could be at all viable.
A Deal would actually be bad news for the LDs in that it would be likely to kill Brexit as an issue - no prospect of a Brexit election. Their commitment to Revoke would have little relevance - and Remainers would probably shift back to Labour.
Not with Corbyn
They voted for him in 2017 and on the basis of the polls would have done so six months ago. The dominance of Brexit caused a significant uptick in LibDem support - which would be likely to fall back if the issue largely disappears from the radar.
Brexit will not be off the radar for years, 2017 is a distant memory, and Corbyn lost anyway
Prediction - if we leave - leavers will move on quicker than remainers.
It's the Old Mrs May solution but with one crucial difference: it contains the element of consent. In other words, a referendum in Northern Ireland allows them to unilaterally exit the backstop.
Now, anybody with half a brain knows that the Northern Irish will never vote to leave the backstop, as it is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)
Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.
It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.
I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.
Because at some point it will be the majority view in NI. Once that is the case the UK will not have a leg to stand on. Remember all their claims about The Falklands and Gibraltar are quite rightly based on self determination. They will be in no position to deny that to NI, especially when the mechanism for a referendum is slready in place in the GFA.
The problem won’t be with GB. It will be with RoI. Speak to any serious Irish politician and their nightmare is having reunification as they will have a lot of very unhappy unionists in their country.
Comments
It’s possible that both can win .
If Brexit had been about simply throwing a switch the morning after the referendum there would have been few that wouldn't have agreed to it. (The likes of Soubry only)
Who was it that said 'a week is a long time in politics'
The political declaration isn’t legally binding , it’s irrelevant how many guarantees are in that for rights etc.
Labour are against any deal as they can’t be seen to be aiding a Tory Brexit given the overwhelming views of the membership and MPs .
I expect if a deal comes through we’ll see the same argument about rights etc from Labour .
Labour will then whip for a confirmatory vote which will lose , the deal will pass with some Labour MPs support .
They’ll say we did our best , our official policy was a second vote , sorry about that!
And given I normally vote Labour I’m not just attacking them , the arguments against Mays deal don’t stand upto scrutiny as she could never guarantee anything .
If Labour really hate Brexit then they should have removed Corbyn and found someone who was pro EU instead of subjecting many Labour voters to two years watching this fiasco unfold .
They may fall back. It may be that everyone just sighs and says "well, culture war over".
Bit I doubt it.
Some success and he has been found out since as evidenced by disastrous personal poll ratings. He needs to go for labour to start on the road to recovery
I predicted Boris would bring home a deal from the 17th/18th October Summit which he would present to Parliament in the Saturday Sitting.
So far so good.
But I also predicted Parliament would vote for the deal. That's the tricky part...
Parliament will vote for the deal . The ERG and DUP onside and at least half the Tory rebels will vote for it, add in around 20 Labour MPs and job done .
I will lose it completely if the deal doesn’t go through !
Ah, my coat. Thank you...
You can’t rewrite it against the will f the people today
I just find you extraordinarily complacent about things turning out as you expect.
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