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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of the month at 26%
The big Brexit betting market as seen above in the betdata.io chart is whether Johnson will achieve his objective of an October 31st exit as per the Article 50 deadline.
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surely no one can be that completely barking mad? it's like he's suffered some sort of brain injury.
The transition is a bespoke (new) treaty agreement with an ex member state, so it a Deal was passed by both the UK and EU, A50 expires, we’re no longer a member of the EU and we entered it it would certainly count as a YES.
Trump and Brexit being two examples.
And 2015 as I recall.
My memory for Brexit was that there were quite a few polls showing Leave leads, but what the markets thought (from historical performance) were the better ones were showing leads for Remain. I'm not sure what the polling averages would have shown - I guess it would depend on how you did the averaging.
Extension still seems the likeliest result.
Pro-EU MPs need to decide what they want to do after that, if it happens, though.
It used to say ‘may’. It now says ‘must’.
See s.20(4) http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/20
He’s so debased the office of President but much of the American public has been desensitized to his disgraceful behaviour.
Many will just shrug and think whatever !
Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?
https://twitter.com/BrandyZadrozny/status/1179833719902760960?s=19
Don't we still need a technical extension to put through legislation that the government has been too scared to table until now? I think we would but I suppose if everything was rushed through, I mean its not as if Parliament is chock full of people who think this is the worst idea since Eve asked Adam if he fancied a bite, is it?
The odds look fair to me.
“retrospective provision”, in relation to provision made by regulations, means provision taking effect from a date earlier than the date on which the regulations are made;
and I was idly wondering how that might be applicable to the bets referenced in the thread header.
Still feel so smug?
And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .
WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1179980363604660224?s=19
If we leave with no deal on 31 October the MPs who voted for the Benn Act will bear much of the responsibility. As the clock ticks down the EU would be trying much harder to get a deal done now if the Benn Act did not exist.
Maybe for 6 months or so.
But it is a hilarious story.
https://splinternews.com/worlds-biggest-dipshits-hilariously-mangle-hit-job-on-e-1838750767
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1179802659806691328
There's a good article here which lays out how it usually goes, and why he might finally have jumped the shark.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-ukraine-scandal-playbook-finally-not-working.html
... there’s something about this one that is not well served by the usual Trump dismissal of his wrongdoing. Part of Donald Trump’s seeming immunity to consequences comes from the fact that he has a singular, predictable response to being caught out: He first denies that it happened, and then, faced with proof that it did—or in the case of Ukraine, having himself hand-delivered the proof that it did—he admits having done it, but then argues that it’s perfectly cool, perfectly legal, and not that big of a deal. And that everyone does it and that people should do it more. It’s uncanny but it never fails him. From “Russia, if you’re listening” to “I don’t pay taxes because I’m smart,” the play is to rope-a-dope the public into believe we’re the idiots for abiding by the rules....
...Maybe this time feels different because, well, they are exceptionally bad at this one. Or maybe it feels different because the bombshells are coming from whistleblowers and inspectors general who were silent until they couldn’t be. Or maybe it feels different because no matter how you spin it, the president appears to be losing his shit. But maybe it just feels different because this time Donald Trump looks weak and pathetic. It’s not like the other nonscandals, when he didn’t pay his taxes and told people he was smart, or when he treated women like garbage and told people he was sexy, or when he profited from the businesses from which he refused to divest himself and told people he was just too fantastic a businessman, or even when he destroyed the lives of immigrants and asylum-seekers and told people he was tough.
No, this time, even as he admits to the impeachable act and says it’s what smart people do, he mostly looks nuts. He looks like a desperate man chasing an imaginary enemy—not his political opponent but his opponent’s son—around the globe, firing ambassadors, plotting with Paul Manafort, shaking down the Australians and the Italians and begging the Chinese to get in on the action, all because he’s hell-bent on destroying a political opponent who isn’t even his opponent yet.
78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1180024122698600448?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1180024133360476160?s=20
https://twitter.com/markdistef/status/1179848803991588865?s=21
This is all good practice
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/04/us-diplomats-told-zelenskiy-ukraine-trump-visit-was-dependent-on-biden-statement-text-investigation
US diplomats told Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, that a prestigious White House visit to meet Donald Trump was dependent on him making a public statement vowing to investigate Hunter Biden’s company, and a Ukrainian role in the 2016 elections, according to texts released on Thursday night....
If Trump is not impeached, then the US is a country without law.
Those are great numbers for Boris
https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html
All Boris has is his ‘die in a ditch’ rhetoric. If even 10% of his voters move to BXP or don’t vote then everything is in play.
It is just an example of how these supposedly insuperable problems disappear. Who can doubt that the UK and Spain will agree to continue these mutually beneficial arrangements post 2020? All that is needed is clarity about what the structure in which that agreement will be formalised is to be.
I am in principle against disenfranchising people but one has to draw a line.
The Cummings/Johnson Brexit strategy looks to be turning out to be remarkably successful.
https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html
The MPs calculated that delaying enough would ebb the enthusiasm of those who voted Leave, and that may well work. The EU never wanted us to leave, it would leave a £10 billion a year hole in their finances and the Germans have no intention of filling that gap.
That leaves the French to make up the deficit - don't hold your breath.
After three plus years, the MPs will claim … "We did our best, but it just isn't possible." Especially when they consistently voted against any deal. Cue … a short delay, and then a rapid advance to full political union. "It's what the voters always wanted,"
How strange the Spanish government thinks otherwise.
This is a dramatic change from the euros and the local elections. We know a decent sub-set of the demography of leave is "anti-tory". It is the extent to which the rest of this demographic swing back to the tories that is significant. The evidence here is extremely positive for Johnson.
The continuing opinion polling shift from Lab to LD suggests that there is still potential further downside for Corbyn from deserting leave voters, albeit this is probably reasonably limited now.
Lab core vote is probably just under 20% so to be fair we are close to that.
Typo.
It's nearly as bizarre as Sam Gymiah travelling from prospective Tory PM to Lib Dems in half that time?!
It says more about their personal narcissistic ambitions than any great love for the party that made them.
He has played this all pretty badly.
And let's forget about the ERG and DUP votes against leaving.