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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,612
    Anorak said:

    Somebody's getting a little over-excited.

    #FreeBoris - Will make the Free The Weatherfield One campaign from 90's pale in comparison! :D
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    A non-Brexit distraction. Hope you're not eating.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,266
    Pulpstar said:

    Hungary isn't going to veto our extension !

    They want us in far far more than most to provide a counterbalance to Macron and Merkel.

    The other side of the equation is when UK leave the transfer of money to Hungary reduces / stops.

    Is the Hungarian government (and demos) pro, neutral or anti EU. Less money may be an added influence to tip them towards the anti side of the scales.

    If they are anti then there is a logic for them in having UK leave the EU, as we may be a useful partner should they wish to do the same shortly afterwards. Potentially a much softer landing for them.

    This may all be rubbish, but there has to be a reason for the Johnson confidence.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Re legal case, arent we overlooking that boris could still resign.

    Yes.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Likely Hungary will veto further extension hence Hungary's Foreign Secretary at Cabinet in Downing Street yesterday rendering the Benn Act irrelevant
    So 'taking back control', and all that talk of how we just needed to shout at Jonny Foreigner a bit louder and he'd cave in, reduces to our PM being dependent on the whim of Viktor Mihály Orbán.
    Diehard Remainers have been relying on Macron and Varadkar
    "Hey babe, I negotiate million dollar deals for breakfast. I think I can handle this Eurotrash!"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,891
    FF43 said:

    I am certain Johnson doesn't have the makings of a viable deal, but if people think he does, they won't mind him extending.

    Yes. Any Deal that is substantially different to the May Deal will require an extension of 3 to 6 months to close and ratify. This is obvious.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,612
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely Hungary will veto further extension hence Hungary's Foreign Secretary at Cabinet in Downing Street yesterday rendering the Benn Act irrelevant

    Sliding into the truly absurd now. Engineering a chaotic 31/10 Brexit off the back of a HUNGARY veto?

    C'mon people. Thinking caps.
    The idea of Hungary using it's veto on an extension does sound far-fetched... But is it normal for the Hungarian foreign secretary to attend the Cabinet of the UK government?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,891
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    On the Lady Hale non-thing. The audience was state school girls. Let's not generalise here but let's say the reception and attention to such talks would be different to that received at Benenden, through no fault of the girls concerned.

    Under such circumstances it is entirely sensible and thoughtful to sex up the presentation.

    Well done her I hope many of the girls she speaks to follow her into law/academia.

    The 'TOPPING' construct gets on the right side of this one.

    As his often his wont.

    Although far from always.
  • Anorak said:

    A non-Brexit distraction. Hope you're not eating.

    Is that Charles Manson?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Anorak said:

    A non-Brexit distraction. Hope you're not eating.

    Is that Charles Manson?
    It is aragorn son of arathorn
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,891
    edited October 2019

    No, the monumental error was boxing himself in to the brain-dead 31st October pledge. What we are seeing now is simply the consequences of that error playing out.

    And he didn't have to do it to get the leadership either.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,569
    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely Hungary will veto further extension hence Hungary's Foreign Secretary at Cabinet in Downing Street yesterday rendering the Benn Act irrelevant

    Sliding into the truly absurd now. Engineering a chaotic 31/10 Brexit off the back of a HUNGARY veto?

    C'mon people. Thinking caps.
    The idea of Hungary using it's veto on an extension does sound far-fetched... But is it normal for the Hungarian foreign secretary to attend the Cabinet of the UK government?
    I'd put nothing past this government... but we are told Cummings is a genius, so what's he up to?

    He must know that coaxing a foreign government (and a dubious one at that) into engineering a No Deal will provoke Remaainer MPs to go nuclear and revoke.

    But maybe that's his intent - so that Boris can play the people versus parliament card in a subsequent GE?
  • isamisam Posts: 33,370
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    I’d have thought it obvious that what makes me think that is that I think Muslims vote on religion over party politics.

    It is certainly not obvious to me.

    The view that Muslims here would vote en masse for a Tory Muslim candidate over a Labour non-Muslim candidate is one I find both interesting and surprising.

    So have a bash at explaining.
    I have just explained why I think it, and that is is obvious that I think it, I’m not saying you have to agree
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,612
    TGOHF2 said:
    Why do they say "senior Number 10 source said" and not "Dominic Cummings said" ? :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,569
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Beginning to think the government are going to lose this new case on one of the issues .

    O Neil’s is asking for an order of specific importance and this means it’s easier for the court to rule in their favour .

    He wants to lose. Forced by parliament and the courts to request an extension..... fits perfectly with the narrative. Everything is now about the post extension election if the deal falls, if he wins a majority in that then his deal will be the only game in town that isn't no deal.
    You seem to be overlooking the issue that 'his deal' is not in fact a deal and does not look likely ever to become one.

    How ironic (and sad) if we have: extension, Boris landslide, then May's deal implemented.
    I’m not really like Winston Wolfe, btw...

    Did I say you were?
    I thought you did last night? Might be someone else!
    Not guilty your honour.

    I did ask whether there is anyone in the Establishment you or your family don't know but that is not quite the same thing, is it.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,266
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely Hungary will veto further extension hence Hungary's Foreign Secretary at Cabinet in Downing Street yesterday rendering the Benn Act irrelevant

    Sliding into the truly absurd now. Engineering a chaotic 31/10 Brexit off the back of a HUNGARY veto?

    C'mon people. Thinking caps.
    The idea of Hungary using it's veto on an extension does sound far-fetched... But is it normal for the Hungarian foreign secretary to attend the Cabinet of the UK government?
    I'd put nothing past this government... but we are told Cummings is a genius, so what's he up to?

    He must know that coaxing a foreign government (and a dubious one at that) into engineering a No Deal will provoke Remaainer MPs to go nuclear and revoke.

    But maybe that's his intent - so that Boris can play the people versus parliament card in a subsequent GE?
    Oh good god religious icon.
    I had no idea the EU was the hiding place for "a foreign government (and a dubious one at that)" , we must free ourselves from this decadent organisation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,569
    Oh God, the suspense is killing me... Has anyone got the next month of Brexit recorded? - I'd like to binge watch itjust to know what happens.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Oh dear the government is now digging a deeper hole for itself .

    They’re basically admitting they’re going to avoid the Benn Act by making the EU refuse an extension.

    By other communications and other methods not specified ! The n10 statement is quite something !
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,569
    GIN1138 said:
    I presume we are sure she has got a line into Cummings and not just some No.10 office junior?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,891
    humbugger said:

    Agreed. The fact that Hale appears to be glorifying her role in crushing the PM is a gift to the argument that this is all about the establishment against Brexit and the people. It's a shocking error of judgement on her part and Cummings will exploit it.

    1. Mocking crass, casual sexism is what she appears to be doing. Reason she appears to be doing that is because this is what she IS doing.

    2. It is not one of the guiding principles of how a public servant should behave that they render themselves incapable of being smeared by Dominic Cummings.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,569
    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely Hungary will veto further extension hence Hungary's Foreign Secretary at Cabinet in Downing Street yesterday rendering the Benn Act irrelevant

    Sliding into the truly absurd now. Engineering a chaotic 31/10 Brexit off the back of a HUNGARY veto?

    C'mon people. Thinking caps.
    The idea of Hungary using it's veto on an extension does sound far-fetched... But is it normal for the Hungarian foreign secretary to attend the Cabinet of the UK government?
    I'd put nothing past this government... but we are told Cummings is a genius, so what's he up to?

    He must know that coaxing a foreign government (and a dubious one at that) into engineering a No Deal will provoke Remaainer MPs to go nuclear and revoke.

    But maybe that's his intent - so that Boris can play the people versus parliament card in a subsequent GE?
    Oh good god religious icon.
    I had no idea the EU was the hiding place for "a foreign government (and a dubious one at that)" , we must free ourselves from this decadent organisation.
    Whatever...

    The point still stands though, if Boris engineers a No Extension from the EU, the HoC can still force Revoke.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,612
    What would the government have promised Hungary to get them to veto?

    How about the wad of cash that Varadkar turned down? ;)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,891
    isam said:

    I have just explained why I think it, and that is is obvious that I think it, I’m not saying you have to agree

    You haven't. The question is as follows -

    Why do you think Muslims here would vote for a Muslim Tory candidate over a non-Muslim Labour candidate?

    It's an unusual view. It's interesting and it's surprising. I have heard nobody else express it. Seriously, I haven't.

    So 2 choices -

    1. Explain it.

    2. Explain why you won't.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,612
    This thread has been

    VETOED

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,891
    Ah OK.

    Probably just as well.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,266

    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely Hungary will veto further extension hence Hungary's Foreign Secretary at Cabinet in Downing Street yesterday rendering the Benn Act irrelevant

    Sliding into the truly absurd now. Engineering a chaotic 31/10 Brexit off the back of a HUNGARY veto?

    C'mon people. Thinking caps.
    The idea of Hungary using it's veto on an extension does sound far-fetched... But is it normal for the Hungarian foreign secretary to attend the Cabinet of the UK government?
    I'd put nothing past this government... but we are told Cummings is a genius, so what's he up to?

    He must know that coaxing a foreign government (and a dubious one at that) into engineering a No Deal will provoke Remaainer MPs to go nuclear and revoke.

    But maybe that's his intent - so that Boris can play the people versus parliament card in a subsequent GE?
    Oh good god religious icon.
    I had no idea the EU was the hiding place for "a foreign government (and a dubious one at that)" , we must free ourselves from this decadent organisation.
    Whatever...

    The point still stands though, if Boris engineers a No Extension from the EU, the HoC can still force Revoke.
    It can

    I think my preferred option is the William view of in means in, Euro, Shengen and all else.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,082

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Beginning to think the government are going to lose this new case on one of the issues .

    O Neil’s is asking for an order of specific importance and this means it’s easier for the court to rule in their favour .

    He wants to lose. Forced by parliament and the courts to request an extension..... fits perfectly with the narrative. Everything is now about the post extension election if the deal falls, if he wins a majority in that then his deal will be the only game in town that isn't no deal.
    You seem to be overlooking the issue that 'his deal' is not in fact a deal and does not look likely ever to become one.

    How ironic (and sad) if we have: extension, Boris landslide, then May's deal implemented.
    I’m not really like Winston Wolfe, btw...

    Did I say you were?
    I thought you did last night? Might be someone else!
    Not guilty your honour.

    I did ask whether there is anyone in the Establishment you or your family don't know but that is not quite the same thing, is it.
    I answered it and then @noneoftheabove said that his perception of me had shifted from being an elegant City lawyer to me being like Winston Wolfe...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,082

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Beginning to think the government are going to lose this new case on one of the issues .

    O Neil’s is asking for an order of specific importance and this means it’s easier for the court to rule in their favour .

    He wants to lose. Forced by parliament and the courts to request an extension..... fits perfectly with the narrative. Everything is now about the post extension election if the deal falls, if he wins a majority in that then his deal will be the only game in town that isn't no deal.
    You seem to be overlooking the issue that 'his deal' is not in fact a deal and does not look likely ever to become one.

    How ironic (and sad) if we have: extension, Boris landslide, then May's deal implemented.
    I’m not really like Winston Wolfe, btw...

    Did I say you were?
    I thought you did last night? Might be someone else!
    Not guilty your honour.

    I did ask whether there is anyone in the Establishment you or your family don't know but that is not quite the same thing, is it.
    I answered it and then @noneoftheabove said that his perception of me had shifted from being an elegant City lawyer to me being like Winston Wolfe...
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,478
    edited October 2019
    deleted (wrong thread)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,569
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    Beginning to think the government are going to lose this new case on one of the issues .

    O Neil’s is asking for an order of specific importance and this means it’s easier for the court to rule in their favour .

    He wants to lose. Forced by parliament and the courts to request an extension..... fits perfectly with the narrative. Everything is now about the post extension election if the deal falls, if he wins a majority in that then his deal will be the only game in town that isn't no deal.
    You seem to be overlooking the issue that 'his deal' is not in fact a deal and does not look likely ever to become one.

    How ironic (and sad) if we have: extension, Boris landslide, then May's deal implemented.
    I’m not really like Winston Wolfe, btw...

    Did I say you were?
    I thought you did last night? Might be someone else!
    Not guilty your honour.

    I did ask whether there is anyone in the Establishment you or your family don't know but that is not quite the same thing, is it.
    I answered it and then @noneoftheabove said that his perception of me had shifted from being an elegant City lawyer to me being like Winston Wolfe...

    Ah right - must.ve been after my bedtime :smile:

    I'll go and look at your answer.
  • isamisam Posts: 33,370
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    I have just explained why I think it, and that is is obvious that I think it, I’m not saying you have to agree

    You haven't. The question is as follows -

    Why do you think Muslims here would vote for a Muslim Tory candidate over a non-Muslim Labour candidate?

    It's an unusual view. It's interesting and it's surprising. I have heard nobody else express it. Seriously, I haven't.

    So 2 choices -

    1. Explain it.

    2. Explain why you won't.
    Because I think they vote according to their religion not their politics, as I have said already!
  • GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely Hungary will veto further extension hence Hungary's Foreign Secretary at Cabinet in Downing Street yesterday rendering the Benn Act irrelevant

    Sliding into the truly absurd now. Engineering a chaotic 31/10 Brexit off the back of a HUNGARY veto?

    C'mon people. Thinking caps.
    The idea of Hungary using it's veto on an extension does sound far-fetched... But is it normal for the Hungarian foreign secretary to attend the Cabinet of the UK government?
    I'd put nothing past this government... but we are told Cummings is a genius, so what's he up to?

    He must know that coaxing a foreign government (and a dubious one at that) into engineering a No Deal will provoke Remaainer MPs to go nuclear and revoke.

    But maybe that's his intent - so that Boris can play the people versus parliament card in a subsequent GE?

    "coaxing a foreign government...

    Ha ha ha...

    The rank hypocricy of this post is so mind-numbingly blatant that one must assume its a wind up.
This discussion has been closed.