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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU

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  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    rkrkrk said:

    Brom said:

    nichomar said:

    Fenster said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.

    I don't dislike Rory Stewart but how can you go from being a Tory prime ministerial candidate to resignation within a couple of months!?

    It's nearly as bizarre as Sam Gymiah travelling from prospective Tory PM to Lib Dems in half that time?!

    It says more about their personal narcissistic ambitions than any great love for the party that made them.
    The party did not make Stewart they were lucky to get him
    I liked Rory but there must be plenty of people now delighted they didn't back his leadership campaign given he's ducked out of politics, sometimes you have to stick things out when they don't go your way rather than run away (see also D Miliband). That is one thing I would give Mr Corbyn credit for during the Blair and Brown years.
    Agree with this. He wanted to be prime minister, and when that became unlikely, decided to quit. Same with David Miliband really.
    He was thrown out the parliamentary party for voting with his conscience on an issue which affects us all. Like thousands of other MPs over the last several centuries.

    It was Johnson's moronic and myopic decision to withdraw the whip that has led to this, combined with the cowardice of the remaining MPs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    rkrkrk said:

    Brom said:

    nichomar said:

    Fenster said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.

    I don't dislike Rory Stewart but how can you go from being a Tory prime ministerial candidate to resignation within a couple of months!?

    It's nearly as bizarre as Sam Gymiah travelling from prospective Tory PM to Lib Dems in half that time?!

    It says more about their personal narcissistic ambitions than any great love for the party that made them.
    The party did not make Stewart they were lucky to get him
    I liked Rory but there must be plenty of people now delighted they didn't back his leadership campaign given he's ducked out of politics, sometimes you have to stick things out when they don't go your way rather than run away (see also D Miliband). That is one thing I would give Mr Corbyn credit for during the Blair and Brown years.
    Agree with this. He wanted to be prime minister, and when that became unlikely, decided to quit. Same with David Miliband really.
    Although I dont think Rory will ever be the king over water, but other than that, yep!
    More like he has been actually thrown out of his own party and sees no future in another one in his beloved Penrith seat.

    When the PM is throwing people like Stewart out of the party, then the party is over. Finished. We are witnessing its end.

    As Ferdinand Mount wrote a few months ago - it is a hollow man party.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    In fairness to the guy how else are you supposed to stand out in a party dominated by the ERG, Johnson kicks people out who go the other direction.

  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Rory wants another 10 mins of fame prancing around London in a futile campaign.

    Khan nailed on for reelection now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    FF43 said:

    I agree the questions are a little leading, but they highlight a problem for the government with its People (ie Johnson) versus MPs rhetoric. It depends on those MPs to get Brexit through without a second referendum.

    Not just that, but the whole strategy is built around a pre-brexit election, and backfires hilariously if the opposition have the presence if mind to do a GNU.

    Him: BACK ME OR LOSE THE WHIP
    Them: Guess we're on the opposition side now ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    Him: GET BREXIT DONE
    Them: OK, you couldn't so it so we will

    Him: THE PEOPLE DECIDE NOT PARLIAMENT
    Them: Referendum it is then
    Nah I think a second referendum works fine for the Tories provided it's in no way orchestrated by them (I don't think it has the numbers still). See the SNP.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    humbugger said:

    Good morning all.

    If we leave with no deal on 31 October the MPs who voted for the Benn Act will bear much of the responsibility. As the clock ticks down the EU would be trying much harder to get a deal done now if the Benn Act did not exist.

    That’s right. If we leave with No Deal the people to blame will be those who fought tooth & nail against leaving with No Deal.

    Brexit through the looking glass.

    Or maybe through the bottom of a glass.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    rkrkrk said:

    Brom said:

    nichomar said:

    Fenster said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.

    I don't dislike Rory Stewart but how can you go from being a Tory prime ministerial candidate to resignation within a couple of months!?

    It's nearly as bizarre as Sam Gymiah travelling from prospective Tory PM to Lib Dems in half that time?!

    It says more about their personal narcissistic ambitions than any great love for the party that made them.
    The party did not make Stewart they were lucky to get him
    I liked Rory but there must be plenty of people now delighted they didn't back his leadership campaign given he's ducked out of politics, sometimes you have to stick things out when they don't go your way rather than run away (see also D Miliband). That is one thing I would give Mr Corbyn credit for during the Blair and Brown years.
    Agree with this. He wanted to be prime minister, and when that became unlikely, decided to quit. Same with David Miliband really.
    Although I dont think Rory will ever be the king over water, but other than that, yep!
    More like he has been actually thrown out of his own party and sees no future in another one in his beloved Penrith seat.

    When the PM is throwing people like Stewart out of the party, then the party is over. Finished. We are witnessing its end.

    As Ferdinand Mount wrote a few months ago - it is a hollow man party.
    If the Labour party can survive infiltration and take over by marxists and anti semites I think the Tories will survive Rory Stewart quitting it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I think Rory running hurts Benita the most.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Rory quitting is the most read story on the BBC News website.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Liberals should immediately stand down and throw themselves behind Stewart.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    More like he has been actually thrown out of his own party and sees no future in another one in his beloved Penrith seat.

    When the PM is throwing people like Stewart out of the party, then the party is over. Finished. We are witnessing its end.

    As Ferdinand Mount wrote a few months ago - it is a hollow man party.

    It it mildly suprising, but sadly only mildly, to see Tories cheering on a factional takeover, the very thing they lambast the Labour Party for. They've learnt absolutely nothing from observing Corbyn, and Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Who would you have voted for 'but for' Stewart, and what are your likely 2nd and 1st prefs now ?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013


    RIP, the Conservative Party. 1834 to 2019.

    I had always thought the death of the Conservative Party would be more enjoyable than this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Liberals should immediately stand down and throw themselves behind Stewart.
    You've got to be joking. It's likely a blow to Benita but I've got some 33-1 tickets on her.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bozo only started even trying to get a deal after the Benn Act was passed.

    The Leave argument that the act has hampered chances of a deal is yet more guff .

  • Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Who would you have voted for 'but for' Stewart, and what are your likely 2nd and 1st prefs now ?
    Going to be pretty easy for me

    Stewart #1
    Bailey #2.

  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    nico67 said:

    PeterC said:

    geoffw said:

    PeterC said:

    How strongly will Corbyn whip his party against the Boris deal? It seems now that its not really in his interest to let Boris get a victory, and could whip very strongly against. In that scenario, will those like Nandy Snell and Smeeth still hold out and vote for it, they could face deselection if so.

    The only MP Corbyn has actually thrown out of the party is Fiona who went to prison, the local members could deselect them for it (or they might not) but I can't see Corbyn actually doing it. Some MPs seem to be voting for Brexit with little/limited grief, although it helps not to go as far as Hoey, mainly those in leave areas.

    TBH I quite like Nandy so I wouldn't deselect her for it although I wouldn't be delighted with it but maybe I am a bit less hardline than others on this. Although I feel like some of the pro EU lot* can sound more deselection happy than the craziest Corbynista when it comes to the subject.

    *Not directed at you
    Academic, surely. Is there going to be a Boris Deal to vote on?

    The Hungarian wildcard is underestimated, though. What else could explain Boris's extraordinary confidence about 31st October?
    The anglophile Hungarian foreign minister was quite impressive on Newsnight y'day.
    I do wonder whether Boris/Cummings have had something stiched up with Hungary for weeks.
    Given the foreign minister thinks no deal would be a disaster how does that work with vetoing an extension .

    This Hungary veto isn’t happening no matter how hard some Leavers would hope for it.

    Orban is not going to pick a fight over this with the EU.
    No extension does not lead to No Deal - that has always been a non-starter. It doesn't lead to Revoke either - MPs haven't got the balls. It leads in fact to the withdrawal agreement, which Boris wil shamelessly hail as a triumph. No crash out. No disaster. No more going round in circles.
  • Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Liberals should immediately stand down and throw themselves behind Stewart.
    You've got to be joking. It's likely a blow to Benita but I've got some 33-1 tickets on her.
    I think I got 80/1...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2019
    Sky News - Confirm Rory Stewart to stand as Independent for Mayor of London.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Khan 1/4 - won’t be that price for long.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Who would you have voted for 'but for' Stewart, and what are your likely 2nd and 1st prefs now ?
    I have always voted for a Tory mayor. Not 100% sure but I think I have always had the Lib Dem candidate as my second choice.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:

    Rory wants another 10 mins of fame prancing around London in a futile campaign.

    Khan nailed on for reelection now.

    Bailey was already sunk
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Who would you have voted for 'but for' Stewart, and what are your likely 2nd and 1st prefs now ?
    Going to be pretty easy for me

    Stewart #1
    Bailey #2.

    What would you have done previously
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Mango said:


    RIP, the Conservative Party. 1834 to 2019.

    I had always thought the death of the Conservative Party would be more enjoyable than this.
    Nobody told us it would be dead but still walking around, eating brains
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    GIN1138 said:

    That's the end of #PBTories4Rory then?

    It had a decade long run so didn't do too badly. :D

    So as #PBTories4Rory ends #PB4MayorRory begins! :D
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart to stand as Independent for Mayor of London.

    Well, *that's* out of left field.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Rory running hurts Benita the most.

    The way SV works it makes Khan certain to be re-elected.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Yes but as we've seen FTPA means we could go many more months or even years without the Opposition agreeing to a general election and at some point the political dial has got to be reset.

    FTPA has changed everything.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Scott_P said:
    "I'm running for major of London because I live in rural Cumbria"

    Eh?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Any odds on Rory ?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013

    Gonna try this spoiler thing

    KLOBUCHAR
    The hide button works too, you'll be pleased to hear.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Scott_P said:
    “Gothic shouting chamber”......good one.

    Went a little weird when he started talking about “love”......
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    So another patrician Old Etonian swans into town, expecting the mayoralty on a plate?

    Well he can piss off back to his beloved borders.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Scott_P said:
    “Gothic shouting chamber”......good one.

    Went a little weird when he started talking about “love”......
    Is he unwell ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    What happened to Rory starting a new political party and becoming the UKs Macron?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Rory starting a new political party and becoming the UKs Macron?

    What happened to him saying the only thing he was launching this week was his sons toy boat?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Mango said:

    So another patrician Old Etonian swans into town, expecting the mayoralty on a plate?

    No Khan do.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Who would you have voted for 'but for' Stewart, and what are your likely 2nd and 1st prefs now ?
    Going to be pretty easy for me

    Stewart #1
    Bailey #2.

    What would you have done previously
    Benita #1 Bailey #2 probably.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    Did anyone else know we could use 'spoilers' here?

    They're in the format button on vanilla
    Now that we know let's hope it will be used by the F1 afficionados here on race days when the plebs are waiting for the evening highlights programme.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Henriques report on the nonce-finder generals favourite smear:

    https://www.met.police.uk/henriques
  • PeterC said:

    nico67 said:

    PeterC said:

    geoffw said:

    PeterC said:

    How strongly will Corbyn whip his party against the Boris deal? It seems now that its not really in his interest to let Boris get a victory, and could whip very strongly against. In that scenario, will those like Nandy Snell and Smeeth still hold out and vote for it, they could face deselection if so.

    The only MP Corbyn has actually thrown out of the party is Fiona who went to prison, the local members could deselect them for it (or they might not) but I can't see Corbyn actually doing it. Some MPs seem to be voting for Brexit with little/limited grief, although it helps not to go as far as Hoey, mainly those in leave areas.

    TBH I quite like Nandy so I wouldn't deselect her for it although I wouldn't be delighted with it but maybe I am a bit less hardline than others on this. Although I feel like some of the pro EU lot* can sound more deselection happy than the craziest Corbynista when it comes to the subject.

    *Not directed at you
    Academic, surely. Is there going to be a Boris Deal to vote on?

    The Hungarian wildcard is underestimated, though. What else could explain Boris's extraordinary confidence about 31st October?
    The anglophile Hungarian foreign minister was quite impressive on Newsnight y'day.
    I do wonder whether Boris/Cummings have had something stiched up with Hungary for weeks.
    Given the foreign minister thinks no deal would be a disaster how does that work with vetoing an extension .

    This Hungary veto isn’t happening no matter how hard some Leavers would hope for it.

    Orban is not going to pick a fight over this with the EU.
    No extension does not lead to No Deal - that has always been a non-starter. It doesn't lead to Revoke either - MPs haven't got the balls. It leads in fact to the withdrawal agreement, which Boris wil shamelessly hail as a triumph. No crash out. No disaster. No more going round in circles.
    I would love for you to be right but I lack your confidence. It would be a great outcome.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I can confirm that Auchentennach Fine Pies will be making a suitable contribution to Rory4Mayor.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Me too.

    Second preference to the Lib Dem candidate.
  • I am sorry to.see Stewart leaving Parliament. I didn't agree with him on his recent positions on Brexit but he was a great asset to the House.
  • So the apparent hostile reception and "heckling" Gove received at the German embassy last night came from one man - Ben Bradshaw.

    Who then promptly tweeted the heckling claims!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Rory running hurts Benita the most.

    agreed, Bailey had no chance. No one saw this coming, I think he will hoover up a tonne of 2nd preference votes in such partisan times. I would possibly vote for him as think he'd be a good Mayor of London but a bad Tory PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Rory starting a new political party and becoming the UKs Macron?

    For all their seeming ineptness our main red/blue political leaders (May, Johnson, Corbyn) have been far more astute and not created the sort of gap Hamon, Juppe and Fillon did.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    The same point was made here yonks ago, about both the Queen's Speech and the budget.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2019
    HTML fail. Deleted.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited October 2019

    So the apparent hostile reception and "heckling" Gove received at the German embassy last night came from one man - Ben Bradshaw.

    Who then promptly tweeted the heckling claims!

    Sounds a bit like the stand up row Boris was supposed to have had with Jess Phillips in the voting lobby the other day which in the end amounted to little more than Boris breathing...

    Both of these are good examples of why Twitter has become so toxic to the political discourse.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited October 2019
    The Queens Speech is all about running the clock down and forcing a vote which whilst not explicitly a vote of confidence in the Gov't is as close as you can get in the realms of the FTPA.

    Tactically it's a good move.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Liberals should immediately stand down and throw themselves behind Stewart.
    You've got to be joking. It's likely a blow to Benita but I've got some 33-1 tickets on her.
    oh dear
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Early flounce from Rory - it really was all about him.

    You think Rory should stand and split the Tory vote in order to qualify for the parliamentary payoff for defeated MPs? It's a view crap spin line from Number 10.
    If 90+% of his colleagues prefer Boris over Rory then he’s unlikely to be the Messiah.
    That says more about the current state of the Tory party than it does about Rory Stewart
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    So the apparent hostile reception and "heckling" Gove received at the German embassy last night came from one man - Ben Bradshaw.

    Who then promptly tweeted the heckling claims!

    Sounds a bit like the stand up row Boris was supposed to have had with Jess Phillips in the voting lobby the other day which in the end amounted to little more than Boris breathing...

    Both of these are good examples of why Twitter has become so toxic to the political discourse.
    Burgons claim is also being denied
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Rory starting a new political party and becoming the UKs Macron?

    For all their seeming ineptness our main red/blue political leaders (May, Johnson, Corbyn) have been far more astute and not created the sort of gap Hamon, Juppe and Fillon did.
    That's probably true now, but I think our politics will become more polarised and may therefore create such a gap. Of course that doesn't mean the gap will be successfully exploited.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Liberals should immediately stand down and throw themselves behind Stewart.
    You've got to be joking. It's likely a blow to Benita but I've got some 33-1 tickets on her.
    oh dear
    Main weight of money is on Khan tho - but obviously it's only a 1-4 winner or so :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.

    Another half decent Tory bites the dust. Even in his wildest dreams as a Bullingdon Boy trashing restaurants Boris could never have dreamt of the destruction he would one day cause. What a guy!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    The Queens Speech is all about running the clock down and forcing a vote which whilst not explicitly a vote of confidence in the Gov't is as close as you can get in the realms of the FTPA.

    Tactically it's a good move.

    Think the idea is:

    1 Get deal with EU 17th/18th October.

    2. Present to Parliament 19th or 21st October (passes)

    3. Vote on Queens speech 21st or 22nd October (fails)

    4. General election agreed 22nd or 23rd October for 28th November or 5th December.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Who would you have voted for 'but for' Stewart, and what are your likely 2nd and 1st prefs now ?
    I think there would be a lot of:

    1. Benita 2. Stewart
    and
    1. Stewart 2. Benita

    One of them will get into 2nd place on the first count over the Tory.
    That person will then get first place on transferred votes.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Liberals should immediately stand down and throw themselves behind Stewart.
    You've got to be joking. It's likely a blow to Benita but I've got some 33-1 tickets on her.
    oh dear
    Main weight of money is on Khan tho - but obviously it's only a 1-4 winner or so :)
    Well, being Mayor of London is one way of preparing to be Tory leader.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:


    Nah I think a second referendum works fine for the Tories provided it's in no way orchestrated by them (I don't think it has the numbers still). See the SNP.

    I think that works OK for them long-term but the problem is that if Remain wins, they're going to need policy for the next election. If that policy isn't to ignore the second referendum and enact the first one, or have a third one, they're going to lose a chunk to BXP. But if it is, they lose everybody who's had enough of all this shit.

    The SNP doesn't have this problem because there's no Scottish Nationister Party, so they can wait for a decent wave instead of trying to immediately stand up on the surfboard.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Had hoped Rory would be standing as an Independent Conservative in Uxbridge.
  • We can also do some tooltips (don't know how they'd work on a phone..)
    Lib Dems look here, Tories look here, Labour look here, SNP look here


  • TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Early flounce from Rory - it really was all about him.

    You think Rory should stand and split the Tory vote in order to qualify for the parliamentary payoff for defeated MPs? It's a view crap spin line from Number 10.
    If 90+% of his colleagues prefer Boris over Rory then he’s unlikely to be the Messiah.
    If 100% of Tories think someone is The Messiah, that would be definitive proof that they weren't. The Antichrist otoh..
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dr_spyn said:

    Had hoped Rory would be standing as an Independent Conservative in Uxbridge.

    He is. Just not for Westminster
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.
  • Rory would make a superb Mayor. Pity he has almost no chance
  • Mango said:


    RIP, the Conservative Party. 1834 to 2019.

    I had always thought the death of the Conservative Party would be more enjoyable than this.
    Nobody told us it would be dead but still walking around, eating brains
    Only after having eaten every morsel of their own it would appear.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    I don't think so.
    A very smart move from him, which we perhaps ought to have seen coming.

    It is the one high profile contest in the country where party backing doesn't count for everything.
    I think if anything he ought to be slightly shorter odds than that.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Scott_P said:
    The same point was made here yonks ago, about both the Queen's Speech and the budget.
    I've been saying the same thing. It's an obvious point, really, but an example of an important point that commentators miss because they're so wrapped up in the political narratives.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    I will definitely vote for him if he is a candidate.
    Who would you have voted for 'but for' Stewart, and what are your likely 2nd and 1st prefs now ?
    I think there would be a lot of:

    1. Benita 2. Stewart
    and
    1. Stewart 2. Benita

    One of them will get into 2nd place on the first count over the Tory.
    That person will then get first place on transferred votes.
    Ahead of Khan ?!

    There are deep wells of red voters in London, and Khan doesn't have the anti-Semitism/fence sitting on the EU issues that AN Other Corbynite (Burgon or some such) would face. He's also got incumbency and Londoners seem reasonably happy with him.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    Was there a thread header tipping Khan at big odds on?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    I don't think so.
    A very smart move from him, which we perhaps ought to have seen coming.

    It is the one high profile contest in the country where party backing doesn't count for everything.
    I think if anything he ought to be slightly shorter odds than that.
    You always see these sorts of contests so differently to me !
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Rory starting a new political party and becoming the UKs Macron?

    FPTP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    Was there a thread header tipping Khan at big odds on?
    Yes, mine. I've also tipped Benita below the line at 33s. I'm very happy with my position.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    TGOHF2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    “Gothic shouting chamber”......good one.

    Went a little weird when he started talking about “love”......
    Is he unwell ?
    He has often talked about "love" in politics. It doesn't mean romantic love but rather "love thy neighbour".

    It does sound strange - but you'll get used to it as it becomes normalised.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Rory would make a superb Mayor. Pity he has almost no chance

    Yes, he has two problems. The first is that he's a Tory. The second is that he isn't.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    Was there a thread header tipping Khan at big odds on?
    Yes, mine. I've also tipped Benita below the line at 33s. I'm very happy with my position.
    Very happy? You must be well underwater mustn’t you?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Scott_P said:
    The idea that our politics will be reduced to an eternal choice between the John Redwoods and the John McDonnells fills me with dread.
    So I have done something about this and donated money to Stewart.

    Probably thrown away, but one has to try.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 405
    Roger said:

    . Even in his wildest dreams as a Bullingdon Boy trashing restaurants Boris could never have dreamt of the destruction he would one day cause. What a guy!

    Johnson is a creep - but he's always been one. Tory activists used to be ideologically misdirected, but at heart well-meaning. They're the ones who've chosen an incontinent, incompetent - and bizarrely inarticulate - liar to run the government.

    The blame lies squarely with them.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Should cause a few issues for former Tory wets like Sam Gyimah. Do they support the Lib Dems or Rory?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    Was there a thread header tipping Khan at big odds on?
    Yes, mine. I've also tipped Benita below the line at 33s. I'm very happy with my position.
    Very happy? You must be well underwater mustn’t you?
    I've topped up £50 on Khan at 7-10. I'll work out the value of my position in a second for you :)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Scott_P said:
    The idea that our politics will be reduced to an eternal choice between the John Redwoods and the John McDonnells fills me with dread.
    So I have done something about this and donated money to Stewart.

    Probably thrown away, but one has to try.
    It's a trick, he's gonna blow it on toy boats
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Anorak said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart to stand as Independent for Mayor of London.

    Well, *that's* out of left field.
    Maybe it's because I'm not a Londoner
    That I love London so...
  • Good luck Rory!
This discussion has been closed.