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  • Good luck Rory!

    I’m tempted to move back to London and campaign for him.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    I can't see Stewart getting many voters in inner London.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Dadge said:

    Anorak said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart to stand as Independent for Mayor of London.

    Well, *that's* out of left field.
    Maybe it's because I'm not a Londoner
    That I love London so...
    I wonder how many PBers who live in London were born there, and how many who were born there, don’t.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    Was there a thread header tipping Khan at big odds on?
    Yes, mine. I've also tipped Benita below the line at 33s. I'm very happy with my position.
    Very happy? You must be well underwater mustn’t you?
    I've topped up £50 on Khan at 7-10. I'll work out the value of my position in a second for you :)
    Ha you don’t have to do that. I just can’t see there’s much upside of backing long term big odds on shots in political betting. Someone else tipped Labour most seats at odds on about a year or 18 months ago, seemed absolute madness to me.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2019
    OT. My new top of the political interviewers is Mishal Husein. Her interview with Stephen Barkely set the questions for the day yesterday both in the media and in parliament. It was clear she was more knowledgable about the plan than he was. No bullying Just having a bigger brain and doing her homework. Pointing out the sticking points he hadn't anticipated

    The standard of BBC journalists is at an all time high. Though I'd put Mihal and Katya Adler top Nick Robinson is also extremely good. Only Laura K seems well off the pace.

  • Rory cant honestly think he has any chance of winning.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Khan may need to tack left now in order to secure victory. He's not as impressive as Stewart and might need to rely on Labour tribalism rather than espousing centrist Liberal values because he'll be trumped in that respect by Stewart and the yellows.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    isam said:

    Dadge said:

    Anorak said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart to stand as Independent for Mayor of London.

    Well, *that's* out of left field.
    Maybe it's because I'm not a Londoner
    That I love London so...
    I wonder how many PBers who live in London were born there, and how many who were born there, don’t.
    Born here. Live here.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited October 2019
    Brom said:

    Khan may need to tack left now in order to secure victory. He's not as impressive as Stewart and might need to rely on Labour tribalism rather than espousing centrist Liberal values because he'll be trumped in that respect by Stewart and the yellows.

    Khan's playing on easy mode, they'll probably be fighting to finish runner up to him.

    Edit: I think his left flank is pretty secure. Corbyn and Labour members will be calling on people to vote Labour in the Mayoral elections. He'd have to work to lose it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    Blimey I was considering condemning Jake Berry! Poor show Burgon, and me.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Scott_P said:
    There are actually two cases going on .

    They’ve separated them out . One to hear whether an order can be made to comply with the Benn Act and the other what the tweet is in relation to .

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585

    I don’t know much about Burgon tbh.

    I agreed with the statement that if it was true it was a disgrace.

    If the MP did not say this then happy to withdraw the criticism.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    I don't think so.
    A very smart move from him, which we perhaps ought to have seen coming.

    It is the one high profile contest in the country where party backing doesn't count for everything.
    I think if anything he ought to be slightly shorter odds than that.
    You always see these sorts of contests so differently to me !
    Nothing personal. :smile:

    Of course it's possible that he falls flat on his face, but I don't think so.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    Perhaps Cyclefree rushed to pronounce her verdict before considering all of the evidence. Others may have done likewise regarding Gove's speech yesterday.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    Flanner said:

    Roger said:

    . Even in his wildest dreams as a Bullingdon Boy trashing restaurants Boris could never have dreamt of the destruction he would one day cause. What a guy!

    Johnson is a creep - but he's always been one. Tory activists used to be ideologically misdirected, but at heart well-meaning. They're the ones who've chosen an incontinent, incompetent - and bizarrely inarticulate - liar to run the government.

    The blame lies squarely with them.
    To be fair the membership was offered Boris as runaway favourite from the MPs. They were never going to anul that choice. It was always said that Boris might be the darling of the faithful but MPs were far too wise to allow him on the final ticket. Hence the 'lay Boris' orthodoxy. Something obviously has gone very wrong!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    Luckily we have someone from Johnson's cabinet to clear the matter up, a group noted for their honesty.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Burgon spooked by the calm tone of the PMs statement yesterday so makes shit up to try and keep the anger flowing. Sad. Very labour, but sad.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The difficulty for those bringing the case is the courts don’t normally do things in anticipation of a law being broken , they normally act once that’s happened.

    But we live in strange times !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.

    Was there a thread header tipping Khan at big odds on?
    Yes, mine. I've also tipped Benita below the line at 33s. I'm very happy with my position.
    Very happy? You must be well underwater mustn’t you?
    I've topped up £50 on Khan at 7-10. I'll work out the value of my position in a second for you :)
    Ha you don’t have to do that. I just can’t see there’s much upside of backing long term big odds on shots in political betting. Someone else tipped Labour most seats at odds on about a year or 18 months ago, seemed absolute madness to me.
    Fair enough, -£55 is the current book value. Stewart weirdly short on Betfair right now.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Tory and SNP elected in Bridge of Don on first preferences. Tories edge SNP for first place on a 10% vote increase
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    humbugger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    Perhaps Cyclefree rushed to pronounce her verdict before considering all of the evidence. Others may have done likewise regarding Gove's speech yesterday.
    See my post upthread.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Anyway, today is a day for reading the Henriques report.

    Till later......
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited October 2019
    humbugger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    Perhaps Cyclefree rushed to pronounce her verdict before considering all of the evidence. Others may have done likewise regarding Gove's speech yesterday.
    It’s very fashionable to view what people say through the prism of whether they’re on your side before researching or thinking.

    Berry’s behaviour is now a wiki fact

    “In October 2019, whilst in the House of Commons, Berry came under criticism for shouting "Britain first! Britain first!", the extremist language of words used by Jo Cox's murderer Thomas Mair when he fatally shot and stabbed her. Mair is currently serving life imprisonment.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Berry
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Burgon spooked by the calm tone of the PMs statement yesterday so makes shit up to try and keep the anger flowing. Sad. Very labour, but sad.

    Is Burgon copying the Tory tactic when they claimed Corbyn said stupid woman?

    Would be a bit low if he did. Not just going to blindly trust something a member of Johnson's cabinet says personally though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited October 2019
    "Diehard Remainers" LOL

    "Believe in Brexit" is good, too. Does it qualify for faith status ?

    https://twitter.com/ShaileshVara/status/1180047962703052800
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Happened to glance at the Betfair Exchange Premier League title market.

    I know Liverpool and Manchester City are rightly favourites, but literally every other team is more than 100/1. Is that right? [Must say this isn't my area and I've been paying minimal attention, it just surprised me].
  • Richard Burgon is a man known for his honest recollection of events...

    Labour’s Richard Burgon has been proven to have lied when he denied he had ever said "Zionism is the enemy of peace", as footage of him using these words was exposed.

    The shadow justice secretary appeared on the BBC's Daily Politics Show in March 2018 and presenter Andrew Neil asked about a Daily Mail report that claimed he said this.

    Mr Burgon insisted repeatedly that he “didn’t say that” and “that’s not my view.”

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/labour-s-richard-burgon-revealed-to-have-lied-when-he-denied-saying-zionism-is-the-enemy-of-peace-1.483091
  • Scott_P said:
    Shadsy taking the cash, bringing in Stewart without lengthening Khan
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Scott_P said:
    Everything was a broad church for those liberal minded folk before they lost wasn’t it? We all had to rub along together and compromise...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124


    Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:

    CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
    SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
    LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
    LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
    GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
    UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
    IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
    RED: 0.2% (+0.2)

    No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
    3:40 am - 4 Oct 2019
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, today is a day for reading the Henriques report.

    Till later......

    380 pages later....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited October 2019

    Happened to glance at the Betfair Exchange Premier League title market.

    I know Liverpool and Manchester City are rightly favourites, but literally every other team is more than 100/1. Is that right? [Must say this isn't my area and I've been paying minimal attention, it just surprised me].

    Yes.

    EDIT: Mind you, Leicester ought to be third favourites. They're not - they are 200/1. A win tomorrow will see that price go below 100/1.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019
    A review of Scotland's Yard disastrous inquiry into false allegations of a VIP paedophile ring found warrants to search the homes of the wrongly accused suspects were obtained "unlawfully".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49933843

    I actually think it is wrong that the media keep repeating the names of those that were raided / accused in every report. It keeps bringing them to public attention and there will always be some that think no smoke without fire.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    Summary of last nights local by elections. Another very good night for the Lib Dems, a pretty good night for the Tories, especially in Aberdeen, SNP holding firm. One great green surge but other results poor and Labour lost votes in every election, in fact at least 5% in every single one. L to the o to the l
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    isam said:

    Dadge said:

    Anorak said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart to stand as Independent for Mayor of London.

    Well, *that's* out of left field.
    Maybe it's because I'm not a Londoner
    That I love London so...
    I wonder how many PBers who live in London were born there, and how many who were born there, don’t.
    Hasn't always been the case. I understand that in past centuries the (children's especially) death rate in London, due to poor sewage systems and so on was so high in many years that, had people not followed the example of the late R. Whittington Esq. (and cat), the population of the city would have fallen.
  • How does Stewart expect to be taken seriously? One minute he's standing for Tory leader, next he is quitting the party altogether! What does he believe in exactly? Himself, it seems, that's all.

    next...
  • Jezza isn't...as its Friday, he will be in the allotment or meeting some weird anti-Zionist Hamas loving Jews in his local greengrocers.

    Clearly some staffers have decided they must react though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Some things against Stewart

    i) No official mark
    ii) No obvious London connection
    iii) Pro Brexit.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Do you really think he is?

    Khan will beat him easily, quite frankly I don't think Corbyn would be that harmed even if he didn't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Some things against Stewart

    i) No official mark
    ii) No obvious London connection
    iii) Pro Brexit.

    It is a very odd decision. I would have thought a better plan would have gone and done a David Miliband type thing and then in a few years when Boris has gone come back as a moderate voice.

    To be perfectly honest, I actually think Rory would be best ditching politics and doing the international aid thing, as it is something he genuinely believes in.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    Dadge said:

    Anorak said:

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart to stand as Independent for Mayor of London.

    Well, *that's* out of left field.
    Maybe it's because I'm not a Londoner
    That I love London so...
    I wonder how many PBers who live in London were born there, and how many who were born there, don’t.
    Hasn't always been the case. I understand that in past centuries the (children's especially) death rate in London, due to poor sewage systems and so on was so high in many years that, had people not followed the example of the late R. Whittington Esq. (and cat), the population of the city would have fallen.
    I can understand why non Londoners like living there, and why London born people move away... and the reverse of both opinions! Just interested to know
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited October 2019
    Deleted -- replied to wrong post.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Some things against Stewart

    i) No official mark
    ii) No obvious London connection
    iii) Pro Brexit.

    Surely the Muslim vote wins it for Khan? Stewart splits the opposition more than hurts Sadiq I’d say. 1.8 looks decent to me
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    felix said:



    Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:

    CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
    SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
    LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
    LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
    GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
    UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
    IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
    RED: 0.2% (+0.2)

    No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
    3:40 am - 4 Oct 2019

    Labours impressive run of results continues ....

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2019
    Obviously Shailesh has been reading my PB posts

    https://twitter.com/ShaileshVara/status/1180047962703052800?s=20
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    Luckily we have someone from Johnson's cabinet to clear the matter up, a group noted for their honesty.
    It's a bit of a non-denial denial, and at second hand. Was the exchange caught on telly?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Rory starting a new political party and becoming the UKs Macron?

    Rory managed to piss off the other rebels by trying to take all the media limelight. The "lone wolf" London Mayor job was all that was open to him.

    Of course, it served Boris well.

    Of course, Boris managed to get elected.....
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    What would you say Rory’s true % chance was? 20?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2019
    If Rory gets to the final 2 in the London Mayoral race he could have an outside chance of beating Sadiq Khan with Tory and LD preferences

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1180054614713999361?s=20
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    Luckily we have someone from Johnson's cabinet to clear the matter up, a group noted for their honesty.
    It's a bit of a non-denial denial, and at second hand. Was the exchange caught on telly?
    Mikey Smith, journo from above looked and couldn't tell either way. I think it is a bit like when Corbyn was accused of saying stupid woman, arguable either way and some people will believe whatever suits their biases.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    What would you say Rory’s true % chance was? 20?
    Tricky - he could catch fire. He has a lot of nous even if his current positioning isn't that promising. And Khan hasn't been very impressive imho (though it's a long time since I had my finger on the pulse of London politics).

    It's all about being the clear alternative to Khan (with only a second preference a Green-LD or Tory-LD ballot is no use), and he's probably best placed to be that. 20% sounds fair enough but Sadiq looks the value today - his challenge will be staying in - or at least close enough to - the Labour Party over Brexit.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    Luckily we have someone from Johnson's cabinet to clear the matter up, a group noted for their honesty.
    It's a bit of a non-denial denial, and at second hand. Was the exchange caught on telly?
    Mikey Smith, journo from above looked and couldn't tell either way. I think it is a bit like when Corbyn was accused of saying stupid woman, arguable either way and some people will believe whatever suits their biases.
    If he'd *screamed* it twice, it would have been picked up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    felix said:



    Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:

    CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
    SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
    LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
    LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
    GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
    UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
    IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
    RED: 0.2% (+0.2)

    No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
    3:40 am - 4 Oct 2019

    Swing 4.7% SNP to the Tories in Aberdeen
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Rorys support of fox hunting wont go down well in London
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    So could HMtQ advise the PM that unless there was a respectable interval between her speech and the election..... i.e time for sensible(!) proposals to be enacted..... the speech wouldn't take place.

    Unless of course it's a very short speech. 'My Government has decided that since there are not enough MP's who support it, that it's going to see if it can get some more!'

    Or words to that effect.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Don't think will Rory will win but annoying because I opened my long Khan position just 2 days ago at 1.4 and he is 1.8 now because of this.

    Opposite of Smug City whatever that is.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    If Rory gets to the final 2 in the London Mayoral race he could have an outside chance of beating Sadiq Khan with Tory and LD preferences

    It is second preferences that give Rory an outside chance of reaching the final two.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    Some things against Stewart

    i) No official mark
    ii) No obvious London connection
    iii) Pro Brexit.

    Hes a remainer. In fact he starts his video with the danger to London 'of brexit'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Rory seems to have settled around 5-2 on the exchange.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    What would you say Rory’s true % chance was? 20?
    Tricky - he could catch fire. He has a lot of nous even if his current positioning isn't that promising. And Khan hasn't been very impressive imho (though it's a long time since I had my finger on the pulse of London politics).

    It's all about being the clear alternative to Khan (with only a second preference a Green-LD or Tory-LD ballot is no use), and he's probably best placed to be that. 20% sounds fair enough but Sadiq looks the value today - his challenge will be staying in - or at least close enough to - the Labour Party over Brexit.
    I agree that Sadiq looks the value. I have backed him at 4/5. Crudely speaking, I don’t think London’s Muslims will ever vote for a non Muslim again unless there’s not a Muslim candidate, and they must be the biggest voting bloc
  • isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some things against Stewart

    i) No official mark
    ii) No obvious London connection
    iii) Pro Brexit.

    Surely the Muslim vote wins it for Khan? Stewart splits the opposition more than hurts Sadiq I’d say. 1.8 looks decent to me
    Muslim voters (around 12% if London population) are overwhelmingly Labour anyway. No doubt Khan does marginally better than, say, Livingstone, and drives a marginally higher turnout. But I seriously doubt it's worth much more than 1% of total vote over a non-Muslim Labour candidate (and indeed he probably loses a few more "traditional" Labour voters at the margins).
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Rory would be better than Khan.

    But he’s up against an impressive get out the vote operation that can eek out 8 Labour votes from every 2 bedroom flat in Tower Hamlets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:



    Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:

    CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
    SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
    LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
    LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
    GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
    UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
    IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
    RED: 0.2% (+0.2)

    No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
    3:40 am - 4 Oct 2019

    Swing 4.7% SNP to the Tories in Aberdeen
    Ruth must have been a real drag on the Tory vote there....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The government has once again failed to provide a sworn statement regarding the nobile officium case in the Scottish Court of Session .

  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300

    Do you really think he is?

    Khan will beat him easily, quite frankly I don't think Corbyn would be that harmed even if he didn't.
    As with the same spiel against coalition LibDems, I don't think most people in Rory's target market will buy it - his attraction is that he hasn't unthinkingly followed the pack. Quite apart from how true it is, it's one more example of Corbyn just hissing at anyone who's not signed up to his project. (And one to store up next time the outriders proclaim what a cuddly chap he is).

    It leaves me (as a floating voter, but often Lab in the past) cold.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    So could HMtQ advise the PM that unless there was a respectable interval between her speech and the election..... i.e time for sensible(!) proposals to be enacted..... the speech wouldn't take place.

    Unless of course it's a very short speech. 'My Government has decided that since there are not enough MP's who support it, that it's going to see if it can get some more!'

    Or words to that effect.
    She could always send Prince Charles?! That would be the cat amung the pigeons...
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited October 2019

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some things against Stewart

    i) No official mark
    ii) No obvious London connection
    iii) Pro Brexit.

    Surely the Muslim vote wins it for Khan? Stewart splits the opposition more than hurts Sadiq I’d say. 1.8 looks decent to me
    Muslim voters (around 12% if London population) are overwhelmingly Labour anyway. No doubt Khan does marginally better than, say, Livingstone, and drives a marginally higher turnout. But I seriously doubt it's worth much more than 1% of total vote over a non-Muslim Labour candidate (and indeed he probably loses a few more "traditional" Labour voters at the margins).
    12% was in 2011 wasn’t it?

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nico67 said:

    The government has once again failed to provide a sworn statement regarding the nobile officium case in the Scottish Court of Session .

    What were they supposed to be swearing to?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2019

    Tricky - he could catch fire. He has a lot of nous even if his current positioning isn't that promising. And Khan hasn't been very impressive imho (though it's a long time since I had my finger on the pulse of London politics).

    It's all about being the clear alternative to Khan (with only a second preference a Green-LD or Tory-LD ballot is no use), and he's probably best placed to be that. 20% sounds fair enough but Sadiq looks the value today - his challenge will be staying in - or at least close enough to - the Labour Party over Brexit.

    The pattern of second preferences isn't likely to be very helpful to Rory. For a start a lot of voters in the mayoral election don't make a second preference at all, and of those that do, it's not clear that Rory is going to be their second choice: LD or Green voters may well put Khan second, or waste their second pref on Green/LD respectively. Tory voters won't necessarily put him second either, if they are angry about him being sane on Brexit.

    He might get into the second round, but it's a big step to actually win the thing. I'd put fair odds at maybe 10/1, perhaps even longer.

    Which is a great pity, because I think he's the best candidate ever to have stood for London Mayor since the modern post was created. So I hope I'm wrong and he manages to catch the zeitgeist. (I suspect he'll have a lot of support from the Evening Standard, which will help).
  • Tricky - he could catch fire. He has a lot of nous even if his current positioning isn't that promising. And Khan hasn't been very impressive imho (though it's a long time since I had my finger on the pulse of London politics).

    It's all about being the clear alternative to Khan (with only a second preference a Green-LD or Tory-LD ballot is no use), and he's probably best placed to be that. 20% sounds fair enough but Sadiq looks the value today - his challenge will be staying in - or at least close enough to - the Labour Party over Brexit.

    The pattern of second preferences isn't likely to be very helpful to Rory. For a start a lot of voters in the mayoral election don't make a second preference at all, and of those that do, it's not clear that Rory is going to be their second choice: LD or Green voters may well put Khan second, or waste their second pref on Green/LD respectively. Tory voters won't necessarily put him second either, if they are angry about him being sane on Brexit.

    He might get into the second round, but it's a big step to actually win the thing. I'd put fair odds at maybe 10/1, perhaps even longer.

    Which is a a pity, because I think he's the best candidate ever to have stood for London Mayor since the modern post was created.
    He can't pull off a shock victory. By which I mean if we head into polling day with him in fourth or even third, people won't put him down second (well, not enough).
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    Obviously Shailesh has been reading my PB posts

    https://twitter.com/ShaileshVara/status/1180047962703052800?s=20

    Maybe someone should change his picture to an ass as well? :smiley:
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    The exact words of Jo Cox's killer were "put Britain first". So even if Jake Berry appended "why don't you" in front and "for once" behind, I personally still think it is disgraceful to parrot the words of a fascist and convicted terrorist at the colleagues of the terrorist's victim, and is part of a deliberate Tory effort to employ extreme language to inflame passions, irrespective of the violence they might encourage. It is fine to engage robustly with your opponents but suggesting they are acting against the interests of this country is deeply irresponsible in today's climate.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Remainer in a field of remainers
    No party ticket
    Voting history not very London voter centric (Tory policy vs non Tory city)
    Pro fox hunting in a liberal, metropolitan election

    Odds very much against him imo
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    nico67 said:

    The government has once again failed to provide a sworn statement regarding the nobile officium case in the Scottish Court of Session .

    What were they supposed to be swearing to?
    'I solemnly swear that I am up to no good'
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    Slightly nerdy O/T: busy day for the Home Office policing team. Away from the Met, they're apparently about to intervene in Warwickshire Police.

    Background: neighbours West Mercia gave a year's notice on a strategic alliance deal 361 days ago because Warks have a 50pc say on everything for 30pc of the cost... no deal has been reached on ongoing co-operation, and Warks seem not to be ready to go their own way. (Sound familiar?)

    https://www.westmercia-pcc.gov.uk/west-mercia-police-and-warwickshire-police-strategic-alliance/
  • I think I have a spreadsheet* of 2016 second prefs somewhere, would be worth a look...


    *My usual assumption is that AndyJS is involved somewhere, but I don't recall...
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    edited October 2019

    Remainer in a field of remainers
    No party ticket
    Voting history not very London voter centric (Tory policy vs non Tory city)
    Pro fox hunting in a liberal, metropolitan election

    Odds very much against him imo

    I'd agree with your last sentence.. but just as much because he's not Remain enough for that electorate. He voted for the deal every time and has tweeted again this morning that he's against remain/referendum.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    The exact words of Jo Cox's killer were "put Britain first". So even if Jake Berry appended "why don't you" in front and "for once" behind, I personally still think it is disgraceful to parrot the words of a fascist and convicted terrorist at the colleagues of the terrorist's victim, and is part of a deliberate Tory effort to employ extreme language to inflame passions, irrespective of the violence they might encourage. It is fine to engage robustly with your opponents but suggesting they are acting against the interests of this country is deeply irresponsible in today's climate.
    He's not "parroting the words of a fascist" by using three common words in a natural order. He's simply making a reasonable point.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Rory Stewart appears to be the UK's Pete Buttigeig. Very exciting to the media class, and absolutely nobody else.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some things against Stewart

    i) No official mark
    ii) No obvious London connection
    iii) Pro Brexit.

    Surely the Muslim vote wins it for Khan? Stewart splits the opposition more than hurts Sadiq I’d say. 1.8 looks decent to me
    Muslim voters (around 12% if London population) are overwhelmingly Labour anyway. No doubt Khan does marginally better than, say, Livingstone, and drives a marginally higher turnout. But I seriously doubt it's worth much more than 1% of total vote over a non-Muslim Labour candidate (and indeed he probably loses a few more "traditional" Labour voters at the margins).
    12% was in 2011 wasn’t it?

    50% increase from 2001. Can’t say whether it follows that 2011-2021 will be the same ratio of course.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019

    nico67 said:

    The government has once again failed to provide a sworn statement regarding the nobile officium case in the Scottish Court of Session .

    What were they supposed to be swearing to?
    That the PM and government will obey the law . This might not be as big an issue as say in the prorogation case as they maintain their “we will obey the law but still come out on the 31 October “ however both can’t be true .

    The government does have a better chance of winning this case because they actuality haven’t broken the law yet and normally courts would only act after that.

    There are two cases here though . One is to have an order compelling the PM to sign the extension letter and the other to allow a remedy if he doesn’t by allowing the court to sign on his behalf .
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    This is very disappointing and a clear error from Baroness Hale. I speak as a Conservative very prepared to defend the Supreme Court, and their decision last week.

    https://twitter.com/tes/status/1180038967300939776
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:



    Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:

    CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
    SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
    LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
    LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
    GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
    UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
    IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
    RED: 0.2% (+0.2)

    No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
    3:40 am - 4 Oct 2019

    Swing 4.7% SNP to the Tories in Aberdeen
    Ruth must have been a real drag on the Tory vote there....
    Yes clearly St Ruth was not the only reason for Scottish Tory voters voting blue
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Do you really think he is?

    Khan will beat him easily, quite frankly I don't think Corbyn would be that harmed even if he didn't.
    As with the same spiel against coalition LibDems, I don't think most people in Rory's target market will buy it - his attraction is that he hasn't unthinkingly followed the pack. Quite apart from how true it is, it's one more example of Corbyn just hissing at anyone who's not signed up to his project. (And one to store up next time the outriders proclaim what a cuddly chap he is).

    It leaves me (as a floating voter, but often Lab in the past) cold.
    Why in God's name would Corbyn support Stewart for London mayor? Have you completely taken leave of your senses?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited October 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    The exact words of Jo Cox's killer were "put Britain first". So even if Jake Berry appended "why don't you" in front and "for once" behind, I personally still think it is disgraceful to parrot the words of a fascist and convicted terrorist at the colleagues of the terrorist's victim, and is part of a deliberate Tory effort to employ extreme language to inflame passions, irrespective of the violence they might encourage. It is fine to engage robustly with your opponents but suggesting they are acting against the interests of this country is deeply irresponsible in today's climate.
    He's not "parroting the words of a fascist" by using three common words in a natural order. He's simply making a reasonable point.
    If I say ‘Liverpool will win the league’ and someone else says ‘I don’t think Liverpool will win the league’ they’re basically quoting me, according to the insanely inconsistent rule book of progressive politics
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784

    Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.

    "Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.
    Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.
    Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
    The exact words of Jo Cox's killer were "put Britain first". So even if Jake Berry appended "why don't you" in front and "for once" behind, I personally still think it is disgraceful to parrot the words of a fascist and convicted terrorist at the colleagues of the terrorist's victim, and is part of a deliberate Tory effort to employ extreme language to inflame passions, irrespective of the violence they might encourage. It is fine to engage robustly with your opponents but suggesting they are acting against the interests of this country is deeply irresponsible in today's climate.
    He's not "parroting the words of a fascist" by using three common words in a natural order. He's simply making a reasonable point.
    If I say ‘Liverpool will win the league’ and someone else says ‘I don’t think Liverpool will win the league’ they’re basically quoting me, according to the insanely inconsistent rule book of progressive politics
    Not really, because the words you have added fundamentally change the meaning whereas the words Berry added didn't. But apart from that you are 100% correct, well done.
This discussion has been closed.