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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tommyknockers. The death of the old Conservative party
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tommyknockers. The death of the old Conservative party
Stephen King has produced some dross. One of his worst is a book called Tommyknockers, the premise of which is that an alien spacecraft is found buried in the woods in Maine, and it then starts a creeping possession of the minds and bodies of the local townsfolk, until finally they mutate into the form of the aliens who flew in it. Stephen King himself has stated that he regards this as an awful book.
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2 - Hamilton (who I got on at 13/1 for pole; value bet loser? [0.4 behind though])
3 - Vettel
4 - Verstappen (5 place grid penalty)
5 - Bottas (who I was somewhat advising to lay yesterday FTW but chickened out of doing it myself)
Albon crashed out in Q1
I would vote for the current LibDems. I'm after all, habituated to do so. Would I vote, though, for a party with significant input from the likes of David Gauke.
I'd have to think. Might go back to Labour. Or move to Wales and vote PC.
Indeed in the late 1840s, 1850s and 1860s or the late 1900s and early 1910s it was the Liberals of Russell and Palmerston (joined by Peelite defectors from the Tories) or Asquith and Lloyd George who presented themselves as the competent party of the urban middle class against the Tories as the party of the rural and landed classes and nationalist populism.
It may be the Liberals are presenting themselves again as the party for middle class professionals and those who want 'competent' government against the populism of the Boris Tories or Corbyn Labour and already a few anti Brexit Cameroon Tories like Lee and Wollaston (the modern day heirs to the Peelites with Cameron or May as Peel and Boris as Derby or Disraeli?) and anti Corbyn Labour MPs like Umunna and Berger have joined them on that basis
It looks like i will have to vote LD
And with that considerable revelation I must away.
I have long argued that there is a gap in the market for a hardcore right wing nationalist party that is genuinely nasty rather being quaint.
No longer.
Right now, both large parties have been taken over by totalitarians, and a huge proportion of the population despise both the policies of those totalitarians and the methods they adopt.
The LibDem Constitution starts off with a Preamble (https://www.libdems.org.uk/constitution) that's pretty much a summary of everything those totalitarians most despise. We've never been in a position where debate is so visibly moving from a big policy issue (Brexit) to a big method of government issue (totalitarianism vs liberalism) and no-one really knows how public opinion breaks. Talk to my Cotswold neighbours and 95% are now, or are contemplating secretly voting, LibDem - mainly on governance grounds, rather than policy issues. But listen to the Doncaster or Stoke voxpops on the Beeb and it's clear that huge swathes of previously apparent small-l liberals now tolerate totalitarianism.
Until this all plays out, it would be irresponsible to decide whether ex-Tories are a better target than ex-Labour: the target has to be, for now, current small-l liberals. There's no real evidence voters are anything like as swayed by who else supports a party: Labour voters haven't been turned off voting Leave by the fact that Farage supports it.
For the foreseeable future, the LDs simply need to be BOTH the gung-ho supporters of more or less Remain (though I doubt they'd lose many votes or any authenticity if they settled just for the Single Market) and the even gungier-ho advocates of unalloyed small-l liberalism.
We can wait till they've made the country safe for small-l liberalism before worrying whether that's pink-leading or blue-leaning liberalism. Right now: there are bigger fish to fry.
I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.
Sorry, No suggestions, I've got no IT role, expect to report that all is working normally for me.
We've heard from Nicola this week-end that the time has come to take the reins off Johnson and for this they'll almost certainly get a reasonable majority in parliament.
A leader other than Corbyn would be best but that is secondary. This new PM should form a committee from the best of the above and set about agreeing a deal with Barnier based on May's deal but paying no heed to the wishes of the DUP or the hard line Tories who have already soiled themselves.
This should see an end of the crackpots and we can have peace in the land once again.
(If not I can recommend the South of France which is more cheery than the UK in every way )
Other wise their future will once again be decided by the over 65s who having screwed them with Brexit will screw them with a lunatic right wing Tory government .
Le Pen also won most of the departments in the Mediterranean South coast of France in the first round of the 2017 presidential election
F1: suspect value may be hard to find. Might see what odds a Verstappen podium.
FPT: thanks, Miss JGP. I was a bit surprised the article went up so quickly as it's less time dependent than the Ipsus article I wrote a few weeks ago.
Careful, the likes of Francois will be after you! Treason!!
More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.
I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).
It's going to be vicious.
p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.
However all have Corbyn well behind Boris as preferred PM, indeed most now have Corbyn trailing Swinson too and historically the best PM rating has been the best indicator of the general election winner rather than headline voting intention
Rangers 2 Aberdeen 0
Am thinking of small-stakes silly bets like 50/50 on the safety car, Kvyat and Albon to score points from the back, Mercedes to outscore Ferrari, lay Verstappen for top 6...
Verstappen could do well, if he starts reasonably.
(Not 'on safari', sadly.)
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528
... sadly, it feels unlikely. There's the small matter of what policies other than extend and 2nd ref it could agree on.
“A certain critic -- for such men, I regret to say, do exist -- made the nasty remark about my last novel that it contained 'all the old Wodehouse characters under different names.' He has probably by now been eaten by bears, like the children who made mock of the prophet Elisha: but if he still survives he will not be able to make a similar charge against Summer Lightning. With my superior intelligence, I have out-generalled the man this time by putting in all the old Wodehouse characters under the same names. Pretty silly it will make him feel, I rather fancy.”
There is no ‘coup’ about it.
I think how the LibDems answer your question will go a long way to determining who wins our bet on St Albans !
(Overhead the helicopters wheeled towards the spot, searchlights swinging to the position...)
https://twitter.com/number10leaks/status/1177961752220356608
Or Labour...