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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tommyknockers. The death of the old Conservative party

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    edited September 2019

    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Opinion is 36 24 20 11 con lab LD bxp

    With the Con conference bounce yet to come.

    Some well tested in focus groups policies coming this week.
    Will the DExEU Secretary's surrender letter feature?

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1177939652038320128?s=19
    Chancing your arm isn’t surrendering .

    Is it taking back control?
    That phrase doesn’t cut through in focus groups so well - it’s has no relevance.
    Please enlighten me, why do you passionately support Brexit? I am against Brexit as it screws the economy, will do nothing about immigration as people will come from elsewhere where the standard of living is much lower and finally i oppose Brexit because the economic and political gravity of Europe will warp UK interests with no say. So why do you think Brexit is such a good idea when it is a worse deal or scenario in every form of Brexit?
    Why limit our ambitions to a fraction of the globe ? Nothing wrong being in a protectionist cartel I guess - but the EU is a socialist dead end.
    The EU has done better trade deals with Japan and South Korea that the UK will benefit from if we Remain, compared to the terms we will get on our own simply due to comparative economic weights. This talk about ditching the EU trade deal we have for much smaller biliterial trade deals where the other state know we are on our uppers is rediculous. Even Canada wont play ball, which given their political and economic links shows very little prospect for trade deals. You are aware trade deals take years to agree?
    How many times does this have to be explained.

    A country which negotiates its own trade deals can negotiate on the basis of its own trade requirements.

    Thus the UK would not have to take into consideration, for example, the needs of olive oil growers.

    What should be of concern is not whether new trade deals would be theoretically better or worse but rather if the UK has any politicians and Sir Humphreys competent enough to negotiate trade deals at all.

    Given that the UK has had 22 consecutive years of trade deficit that seems somewhat doubtful to me.

    Perhaps fewer trade deals might be of advantage to this country.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    This is another problem for the ' Will of the People ' crowd. A second early general creates a second chronologically superior democratic mandste to the EU referendum. Every opposition party with Commons seats sans the DUP has signifigantly hardened their Brexit scepticism. If there is a clear Tory majority that's fine. If there is another stalemate it will be even harder to break because opposition parties will no longer be bound by the 2016 result.

    Hidden in plain sight is Boris favours a ' People's Vote ' by asking for another General Election before Brexit is delivered.

    I would hope in the event of another hung parliament that the Tories turn down the opportunity of minority government.

    They should let Corbyn try and form a coalition which will be easy to collapse.
  • nichomar said:

    philiph said:

    Politicians discover anonymous keyboard warriors are brave and type with bravery, uninhibited emotion and enhanced levels of vitriol.

    Welcome to the Internet.
    He’s clearly nowhere near ready to make nice with the current regime.
    I wonder where he is heading he is certainly building up a head of steam.
    When the doleful history of the past few years comes to be written he will be one of the heroes. Along with Clarke, Starmer, Grieve, Cooper and Benn.

    May and Johnson on the other hand.....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Opinium says Labour have lost a bit more support from Remainers but picked up 5 points from Leave voters .

    Interesting. It gives a pretty good indication of whether LD or Lab are best placed for a tactical anti-Tory vote in England.
    Two scenarios:

    The @HYUFD scenario (Lab wipeout): 35/25/20 reproduces 1983, Tory landslide
    The @Casino_Royale scenario (Con pincer): Con support is too widely stretched, Lab win in North, LD win in South, SNP win in Scotland, Con loses.

    (Apols to you both, but you are the ones I associate with these stances. Say if you want me to take your names off)
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Cyclefree said:


    Thank you for the interesting article.

    The biggest myth around is that Brexit will be done in any sense the moment we leave.

    It speaks well of Hammond that he is prepared to speak up for his former employee.

    I am a blue and a leaver.

    I WANT the arguments to continue after we leave, it will be grist to the election mill.

    There will be zero mileage for Lab/LD's in supporting the EU in negotiations once we leave...the press will slaughter them (even if it is unfair).

    The Tories can always play the 'Standing Up For Britain' card far harder than Corbyn or Swinson ever could and the electorate will lap it up.

    Just watch.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    TGOHF2 said:

    With the Con conference bounce yet to come.

    Some well tested in focus groups policies coming this week.

    Are we going to hear about The Big One - the one that gets them hooting and hollering from Barnstaple to Barnsley -

    An 'Australian style' points system?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    viewcode said:


    denial,
    anger,
    bargaining, <---- Barclay.
    depression,
    acceptance</p>

    It's further than remainers have got to be fair.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Opinium says Labour have lost a bit more support from Remainers but picked up 5 points from Leave voters .

    Interesting. It gives a pretty good indication of whether LD or Lab are best placed for a tactical anti-Tory vote in England.
    Although the Brexit policy is a fudge it should keep some Leavers on side , Labour Leavers are less Leavy than similar Tories .

    And I think the Tories would have preferred Labour to go all out Remain now .

    Had Labour been that from the start it might have been different but the Lib Dems own that mantle even without their revoke policy .


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    To the extent that the MoE changes in Opinium mean anything, which they may not, its that the two parties who have had their conference coverage boost are up and the one yet to have it is down. In other words it's noise not a signal.

    I think that's right. We should also be wary of next week's polls, and wait for everything to settle down.

    Er...could be a problem there.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SunnyJim said:

    I am a blue and a leaver.

    I WANT the arguments to continue after we leave, it will be grist to the election mill.

    There will be zero mileage for Lab/LD's in supporting the EU in negotiations once we leave...the press will slaughter them (even if it is unfair).

    The Tories can always play the 'Standing Up For Britain' card far harder than Corbyn or Swinson ever could and the electorate will lap it up.

    Just watch.

    The first medicine shortage, the first empty supermarket shelves, the Vox pops are not going to be people saying "Thankyou BoZo!!"
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    OT. If any one wants an interesting piece of nostalgia 'Marianne and Leonard' is on TV this evening. I saw it at the cinema a couple of months ago and despite the clear paucity of material it's still unmissable.

    As Is Almodovar's 'Julieta' also on at 9.00pm and one of his best.

    Both much more interesting than Johnson's various floozies. Talking of which I like Alastair's Lord Sanwich story .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,387
    SunnyJim said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Thank you for the interesting article.

    The biggest myth around is that Brexit will be done in any sense the moment we leave.

    It speaks well of Hammond that he is prepared to speak up for his former employee.

    I am a blue and a leaver.

    I WANT the arguments to continue after we leave, it will be grist to the election mill.

    There will be zero mileage for Lab/LD's in supporting the EU in negotiations once we leave...the press will slaughter them (even if it is unfair).

    The Tories can always play the 'Standing Up For Britain' card far harder than Corbyn or Swinson ever could and the electorate will lap it up.

    Just watch.
    Wrapping Boris in the Union Flag will butter no parsnips if we crash and burn after no deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    We have a

    Nude Fred,

    fellers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    ...Perhaps fewer trade deals might be of advantage to this country....

    Leave 2016: We can get more and better trade deals on our own.
    Leave 2019: Perhaps fewer trade deals might be of advantage to this country.

  • viewcode said:

    ...Perhaps fewer trade deals might be of advantage to this country....

    Leave 2016: We can get more and better trade deals on our own.
    Leave 2019: Perhaps fewer trade deals might be of advantage to this country.

    The only person I speak for is myself.

    I said its certainly possible to get better trade deals than those we currently have but that will require competent negotiation with proper preparation and attention to details.

    Given what we've seen of our politicians and Sir Humphreys in recent years I have doubts about that.

    And as the UK has had TWENTY-TWO CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF TRADE DEFICIT I would also suggest that a strategy of ever more free trade might not have been appropriate for the UK economy.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    Level39 might be this bunch: https://www.level39.co/

    The domain details suggest that it was registered by Canary Wharf Group Plc
  • Scott_P said:
    Quite funny, but if real someone is in bother - the real time passenger information system is funded by the council, so that's taxpayers' money being used for overtly political messaging.
This discussion has been closed.