politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wasting Time? How the Article 50 extension has been used
Comments
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They haven't said yet.Casino_Royale said:
What is it?AndyJS said:Unanimous judgement.
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Is this good for Boris?0
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Depends if Cummings has war-gamed this outcome.Theuniondivvie said:Is this good for Boris?
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He must have prepared for a negative outcome (from his point of view).tlg86 said:
Depends if Cummings has war-gamed this outcome.Theuniondivvie said:Is this good for Boris?
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Seems clear this is heading towards unlawful exercise of prerogative power.
Boris loses.0 -
The NEC did follow the rules, it is allowed to propose to abolish the position. No rules were broken by doing that.Philip_Thompson said:
There are already rules in place to permit a deputy leader challenge. Just as there are rules in place for a leadership challenge. Why not follow the rules rather than try to short circuit them?TheJezziah said:
Happy to be corrected here but whilst the NEC could propose abolishing his position they couldn't force an election.Nigelb said:
Those are fair-ish points.rottenborough said:Satire is once again pronounced dead...
On the other hand, no one is proposing abolishing the leadership position...
Worth noting that when Corbyn was challenged he was happy to go to the members, it was his opponents that wanted to stitch it up without the members say.
Undemocratic seems to mean Labour members voting for what they want and getting their way within Labour, presumably democratic would be if the Labour members were overruled and decisions were made in line with the wishes of Conservative members like Rottenborough....
The membership can't vote to challenge the deputy, something that is actually undemocratic but the people complaining about a lack of democracy don't actually care about.
It is almost as if these people who call Labour members cultists don't actually care about Labour members views...0 -
This sounds bad for the government.1
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Boris loses 11-00
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Boris has lost.
Oh well, will he prorogue again?!0 -
Of course it would be justiciable. If it was prorogued until 1 November that would be unreasonable. Why the government didn't make more of a justification of the specific dates which were reasonable in my eyes I don't get.0
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https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1176430787601883138
I thought it was the motive that would make it unlawful.0 -
Motive irrelevant - "no need to consider".
Eminently sensible.0 -
Doesn’t sound good for Boris0
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Huh?MikeSmithson said:
Start with the seats that were held at the 2010 and 2005StuartDickson said:
Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.asjohnstone said:
I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.TheJezziah said:
Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.asjohnstone said:
There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this weekrkrkrk said:.
But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.
I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?
Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
Are you telling me the Lib Dems are about to re-gain Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey from 4th place and 12% of the vote?0 -
Think the SC is laying the ground to prevent Boris simply re-proroguing. They are cutting him off at the pass here. He needs a clear valid reason to prorogue to mid October. Parliament will be back today I am fairly sure now.FrankBooth said:This sounds bad for the government.
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'Deploy Army Detachment Steiner!'tlg86 said:
Depends if Cummings has war-gamed this outcome.Theuniondivvie said:Is this good for Boris?
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No audio!0
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No - they have decided instead that the effect of prorogation is the test.tlg86 said:https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1176430787601883138
I thought it was the motive that would make it unlawful.0 -
Ouch0
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No, but you asked for 30+ seats. England and Wales held in 2005 would give you those 30.StuartDickson said:
Huh?MikeSmithson said:
Start with the seats that were held at the 2010 and 2005StuartDickson said:
Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.asjohnstone said:
I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.TheJezziah said:
Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.asjohnstone said:
There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this weekrkrkrk said:.
But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.
I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?
Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
Are you telling me the Lib Dems are about to re-gain Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey from 4th place and 12% of the vote?0 -
Sounds bad for Boris.1
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I will die from a surfeit of popcorn.1
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Can Boris reply to this with another prorogation of normal length?0
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Boris has been handed his balls.1
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IANAL, and law topics usually bore me silly - mostly because I don't have the terminology or background knowledge (in the same way RFC's may coonfuse non-techies).
However, this speech from Lady Hale has been excellent - at least for the bits I could hear. Clear, concise, and even a non-legal numpty as myself can follow it.1 -
Prorogation UNLAWFUL !!!0
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Ah, so we're not going to get a verdict on "Did Boris lie to Her Maj?"Nigelb said:
No - they have decided instead that the effect of prorogation is the test.tlg86 said:https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1176430787601883138
I thought it was the motive that would make it unlawful.0 -
The world needs more Lady Hales and fewer Boris Johnsons.2
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Governments have prorogued over recesses in the recent past.dr_spyn said:
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Christ0
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1
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It would certainly be credibility-stretching information.Nigelb said:
That would be price sensitive information.StuartDickson said:
Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.asjohnstone said:
I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.TheJezziah said:
Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.asjohnstone said:
There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this weekrkrkrk said:.
But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.
I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?
Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
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Absolutely devastating.0
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Nicely cuts through the bullshit offered post prorogation.0
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I see the PM's continued his stunning run of failures.
He's like an anti-Hannibal.0 -
So the Benn Act isn't law?0
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Yes but not at the time of other constitutional changes.Philip_Thompson said:0 -
So Boris made the Queen commit an unlawful act.0
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Cummings might have to resign!0
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Parliament has not been prorogued...0
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Wow.0
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The Benn act is law - it become law prior to Parliament (not) being prorogued.MarqueeMark said:So the Benn Act isn't law?
Keep dreaming though.1 -
No he's just like Hannibal.Morris_Dancer said:I see the PM's continued his stunning run of failures.
He's like an anti-Hannibal.
Wins a few battles then gets absolutely spanked, thus losing the war.0 -
Isn’t Cummings already scheduled to have his lobotomy anyway?Roger said:Cummings might have to resign!
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I just can't help feeling that Boris and Dom are high-fiving right now. Why? Not 100% sure but they must have foreseen this.0
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Cos Keen is thick as shit, but thinks he’s a genius.Philip_Thompson said:Of course it would be justiciable. If it was prorogued until 1 November that would be unreasonable. Why the government didn't make more of a justification of the specific dates which were reasonable in my eyes I don't get.
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No - the advice offered was unlawful.Gardenwalker said:So Boris made the Queen commit an unlawful act.
The response to the advice automatic (from the POV of the court).0 -
Just bought Boris exit in 2019 and by end of September1
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So who will win the race to be the first MP banging on the gates of Westminster demanding "Let me in!!!"0
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VONC tomorrow then?
Corbyn in No 10 by weekend?0 -
It received Royal Assent before the second vote on whether to have a general election. So it is still law.MarqueeMark said:So the Benn Act isn't law?
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Not sitting on the fence, are they?2
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Lock him up!0
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And that is unanimous?0
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This is monumental and magnificent.0
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Gosh. What now?0
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Total fail for the crook Johnson.2
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Parliament has not been prorogued - official.0
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Not prorogued.
Unanimous.
Now up to Parliament what happens next.0 -
This goes much further than I thought.
Very damning.0 -
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1176432204391559176
3 years on, MPs wondering what to do next.0 -
Wow. Didn't expect that. Dastardly yes, but I thought Cummings was within his rights.0
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Will we never have another State Opening/new session again then?0
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"Parliament has not been prorogued"
FFS FFS FFS FFS FFS0 -
YesChris said:And that is unanimous?
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In normal circumstances surely the prime minister would have to resign.0
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It’s all gone wrong for them. They were hoping Boris would get banged up so he could campaign from his prison cell as the Mandela of Brexit.TOPPING said:I just can't help feeling that Boris and Dom are high-fiving right now. Why? Not 100% sure but they must have foreseen this.
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Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.1 -
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Interesting question. Lib Dems got 57 in 2010, with 11 of those in Scotland. They broke 20% of the vote then.TheJezziah said:
Does anyone else have any opinions on SNP vs Lib Dems most seats?StuartDickson said:
Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.asjohnstone said:
I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.TheJezziah said:
Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.asjohnstone said:
There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this weekrkrkrk said:.
But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.
I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?
Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
I was personally leaning towards the SNP (although not certain) with it being relatively close.
They won't do so well in Scotland this time, so I'd probably make the SNP favourites.1 -
Mike said “start with”, implying that these would fall at the very least.TheValiant said:
No, but you asked for 30+ seats. England and Wales held in 2005 would give you those 30.StuartDickson said:
Huh?MikeSmithson said:
Start with the seats that were held at the 2010 and 2005StuartDickson said:
Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.asjohnstone said:
I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.TheJezziah said:
Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.asjohnstone said:
There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this weekrkrkrk said:.
But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.
I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?
Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
Are you telling me the Lib Dems are about to re-gain Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey from 4th place and 12% of the vote?
He said nothing about only England and Wales.0 -
I expected this. Not surprised.0
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Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. 0
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What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.TheScreamingEagles said:Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.0 -
Boris is screwed. If he doesn't now resign, then he will be removed in short order by the Commons now surely?0
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Only if they are morons. Oh, hang on...Brom said:
What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.TheScreamingEagles said:Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.0 -
Boris, honour - have those two words ever been in the same sentence without not also being there.TheScreamingEagles said:Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.0 -
He now has a base - just like Trump?Brom said:
What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.TheScreamingEagles said:Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.0 -
We can, if the government prorogues for the usual time of 6/7 days.GIN1138 said:Will we never have another State Opening/new session again then?
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Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.TheScreamingEagles said:Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.1 -
I expected this to be bad for the government, but this is in another timezone of badness.0
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We're here all because of the wretched FTPA.1
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Well he's certainly rattled the FBPE lotlogical_song said:
He now has a base - just like Trump?Brom said:
What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.TheScreamingEagles said:Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.0 -
The courts will be very much our future. Every single decision a government makes, from now on, is going to end up in one.SouthamObserver said:Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered.
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"Pretty cataclysmic" first comment by QC on R5.
Pretty accurate description.0 -
A model of clarity that even I could understand.SouthamObserver said:This is monumental and magnificent.
And sets a test for any future prorogation - which does not tie down a future PM to any particular time limit, but rather prevents their using it for purposes other than the obvious one intended, should that significantly interfere with Parliament's democratic constitutional rights of legislation and oversight.0 -
Our constitution is officially screwed.0
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Why hold Parliament this week? - Bring it back on Monday to overshadow the Tory conferenceBob__Sykes said:VONC tomorrow then?
Corbyn in No 10 by weekend?0 -
+1SouthamObserver said:Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered.
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Quite a lot of people owe Jolyon Maugham an apology.0
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What happened to honour and decency? Do we not even pretend anymore that those are requirements for a PM?Philip_Thompson said:
Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.TheScreamingEagles said:Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.0 -
Let's have a general election. It's the only way to clear the air.1
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Suppose he owes Darren Grimes one tooTheScreamingEagles said:Quite a lot of people owe Jolyon Maugham an apology.
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Boris was Honour and off her all night?eek said:
Boris, honour - have those two words ever been in the same sentence without not also being there.TheScreamingEagles said:Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.
If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.1 -
Johnson has lied to his family, to his employers, to the electorate and to Parliament. Of course he would lie to the Queen.0
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He can re-prorogue of course, but navigating the obstacles of the full judgment (as yet unseen by me) will be a minefield. And susceptible to further challenge.TheScreamingEagles said:
We can, if the government prorogues for the usual time of 6/7 days.GIN1138 said:Will we never have another State Opening/new session again then?
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