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This Opinium poll is the best to date for the Tories. On a UNS basis, it implies 59 gains from Labour partially offset by 11 losses to the LDs. If there are 10 further losses to the SNP, the Tories end up on 355 - a majority of 60.0
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Kantar, 11th March.Philip_Thompson said:
When was the last time the Conservatives polled 40% plus? I think the next time could be very soon.AndyJS said:The last time Labour polled more than 30% with any pollster was on 22nd May with Survation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Yes, I think you’re right. Labour are suffering badly from the perception they won’t fight an election. It’s just a terrible look. How can you be an opposition if you won’t oppose in the most fundamental way? How can you ask people to vote for you and get rid of the evil Tories, when you’re content to let these evil people remain in power? I expect Labour will yield soon.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't matter.Anabobazina said:
No, I’m saying that there aren’t enough Brexiteers to trigger an election.Philip_Thompson said:
Er, we've just had a poll that forecasts a Tory landslide bigger than Blair's.Anabobazina said:
Er, there aren’t enough of them...Philip_Thompson said:
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.Anabobazina said:
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!
You are getting too excited by a poll man!
Calm down. Think straight.
The longer the opposition run scared of an election the more abject and humiliating they will be and the more they will suffer for it.0 -
They're shit - let's just leave it at that!Anabobazina said:
So they are either ‘frit’ or ‘folding like a deckchair’.dyedwoolie said:
Neither of us I think as labour will fold like a deck chair and allow one. But we will seeAnabobazina said:dyedwoolie said:
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
Okay, noted. Let’s see who is right...
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.0 -
Noel Gallagher's latest group, I believe...dyedwoolie said:...Frank Fields' curiously specific party...
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They can be both, and probably willAnabobazina said:
So they are either ‘frit’ or ‘folding like a deckchair’.dyedwoolie said:
Neither of us I think as labour will fold like a deck chair and allow one. But we will seeAnabobazina said:dyedwoolie said:
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
Okay, noted. Let’s see who is right...
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.0 -
Could being outed as a wealthy, privileged out of touch racist actually help Trudeau? Could it reassure key swing voters that he is actually one of them?AndyJS said:O/T
Canadian general election: NDP defences.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B-i3PZE7gNVdo5cgtFGx-OIs0I5-u5JKq8okqTGXDDE/edit#gid=00 -
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Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.Byronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.0 -
If you can meet triumph or disaster treat those imposters just the same.Philip_Thompson said:
They're both, but reality will dawn and they will have to fold. Because if they don't they'll be polling in single digits before long.Anabobazina said:
So they are either ‘frit’ or ‘folding like a deckchair’.dyedwoolie said:
Neither of us I think as labour will fold like a deck chair and allow one. But we will seeAnabobazina said:dyedwoolie said:
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
Okay, noted. Let’s see who is right...
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.
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I don't think so. Most of those voters probably won't consider voting Liberal.egg said:
Could being outed as a wealthy, privileged out of touch racist actually help Trudeau? Could it reassure key swing voters that he is actually one of them?AndyJS said:O/T
Canadian general election: NDP defences.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B-i3PZE7gNVdo5cgtFGx-OIs0I5-u5JKq8okqTGXDDE/edit#gid=00 -
Actually, with just ONE out of the 14 polls listed for this month by Britain Elects:Gabs2 said:
Given the Lib Dems are ahead of Labour with half the polling firns ...Chris said:
I wonder - is anyone of normal intelligence with even the vaguest interest in politics not aware that under our electoral system it's advantageous to the party of government that the opposition vote is split?logical_song said:
Didn't think you would be able to justify your postChris said:
Another reminder of why it's a waste of time commenting here.logical_song said:
If "most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal" and by implication don't care then why are so many putting their careers at risk to stop it?Chris said:I can't help thinking that all this talk of a Lib Dem revival is just another unicorn. Or maybe something worse than a unicorn.
In reality I can think of few things more conducive to Johnson getting an electoral mandate for No Deal (if that's what he wants) than a Lib Dem revival that would split the opposition vote.
I'm afraid that most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal, and that - despite the self-serving rhetoric - there are only a relatively small number who really see avoiding it as their top priority.
You're also impying that Boris is somehow encouraging the LibDem revival - which, as a unicorn, wouldn't exist. Have you seen the results of the recent elections?
Did you even read that post through before clicking 'Post Comment'?
But thanks anyway - obviously I still need reminding!
But I think must be the Zeroth Law of Internet discussion that no view is so stupid or ignorant that some fool won't defend it, and no view is so self-evidently true that some fool won't deny it.
http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
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Just listening to Ian Murray defending Tom Watson against a female Momentumite. He is extremely good. She's not bad but he's crushing her. The leader Labour should have gone for. Corbyn -as Murray says -is just not up to it. Three Scottish leaders of the four largest parties might seem a bit much but they're a class above their English equivalents. But this is depressing. With Corbyn Labour are completely fuc*ed0
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Richard_Tyndall said:
Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.Byronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.
And a referendum that excludes Remain will help the healing process? Everyone will be reconciled to that? Come on.Richard_Tyndall said:
Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.Byronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.0 -
The country is already torn. It’s a question of choosing the least bad option, from here.Richard_Tyndall said:
Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.Byronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.
FWIW I think a Boris deal versus Remain referendum would produce a handy victory for a deal.0 -
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At least it makes a change from a thread dominated by Boris haters.Anabobazina said:This thread will be yet another hubristic PB Tory keeper when the sands shift at some point.
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Kantar had the Tories on 42% on 19th August!AndyJS said:
Kantar, 11th March.Philip_Thompson said:
When was the last time the Conservatives polled 40% plus? I think the next time could be very soon.AndyJS said:The last time Labour polled more than 30% with any pollster was on 22nd May with Survation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
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Is he not a relative of yours?Roger said:Just listening to Ian Murray defending Tom Watson against a female Momentumite. He is extremely good. She's not bad but he's crushing her. The leader Labour should have gone for. Corbyn -as Murray says -is just not up to it. Three Scottish leaders of the four largest parties might seem a bit much but they're a class above their English equivalents. But this is depressing. With Corbyn Labour are completely fuc*ed
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Gabs2 said:
CON + BXP = 49% despite the chaos. People should be careful about wishing for PR.Scott_P said:
Tory + Brex = 49, lab and ldems = 39 makes you realise how bogus believing in this polling actually is. We take the polls, we do the calculation above, then we feed it through seats calculators, but the elephant in the polling booth is weighting on likely hood to vote. My evidence is the May disaster of 17 wasn’t May Bot, nor her manifesto, nor the dementia tax, it was an actual GE getting people voting Labour who not just told pollsters they wouldn’t, they used Bi elections and the locals as anti corbyn protest vote.
We shouldn’t be looking at likelihood to vote as a gospel, it’s the unlikelihood to vote that is currently making a monkey out of the pollsters.0 -
Spectacularly wrong.Richard_Tyndall said:
Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.Byronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.0 -
Fair assumption, no?Philip_Thompson said:
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.Anabobazina said:
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!0 -
New YouGov poll
Con 30 (-2)
Lab 23 (+2)
LD 22 (-1)
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They lost PIcard.dyedwoolie said:Labour will at least be able to count on Eddie izzard and that Greek bloke. And Picard.
https://news.sky.com/story/sir-patrick-stewart-breaks-with-labour-after-70-years-over-jeremy-corbyns-brexit-stance-114748700 -
The interesting thing about that story is nothing to do with Corbo or the hard left. It’s the rumours about a Tory rebel backed gnu under Ken or Harriet.Scott_P said:
That could work.
And, it could be popular...
I’ve been mooting this for a while.
Ride the gnu!1 -
Even using UNS the Tories would gain 62 seats off Labour on tonight's Opinium and only lose 11 to the LDs and say 10 to the SNP, giving a Tory majority of 72El_Capitano said:Did I really see someone upthread run Electoral Calculus on Opinium?
Ye gods. You might as well run a ZX Spectrum random number generator and call it a forecast.0 -
The Sunday times report on the political attitudes of labour members is mind boggling. Far far far far left. Virtually Maoist. And they elect the next leader.
This is a dying party. I do not think it can now be saved.1 -
Tories in Major 1997 territoryTheScreamingEagles said:New YouGov poll
Con 30 (-2)
Lab 23 (+2)
LD 22 (-1)
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I think Labour are risking getting the ooposite of a bounce this week. A flop? Unbounce?0
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Given the Palace found time to tell the world Her Majesty's displeasure about some fluff will the Palace comment on this?
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/11754785572938956830 -
It is actually the lowest Tory lead with Yougov since Johnson took office. In contrast, Opinium have been shifting sharply against Labour week by week for a month now. I am wondering whether the firm has had methodological changes.dyedwoolie said:0 -
I think you overstate it. LAB voters much less concerned about Brexit than CPN was as was tracked at GE2017.Richard_Tyndall said:
Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.Byronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.0 -
Why? If Con + BXP are polling 49% the problem is that my side of the debate have failed to convincingly win the argument, not that a polling system might reflect the votes of the electorate.Gabs2 said:
CON + BXP = 49% despite the chaos. People should be careful about wishing for PR.Scott_P said:0 -
HellishMarqueeMark said:
They lost PIcard.dyedwoolie said:Labour will at least be able to count on Eddie izzard and that Greek bloke. And Picard.
https://news.sky.com/story/sir-patrick-stewart-breaks-with-labour-after-70-years-over-jeremy-corbyns-brexit-stance-114748700 -
Not so - those figures imply a very Hung Parliament.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tories in Major 1997 territoryTheScreamingEagles said:New YouGov poll
Con 30 (-2)
Lab 23 (+2)
LD 22 (-1)0 -
"NO! NOOOOOOOOO!!! [smashes a conference lectern in anger] I will not sacrifice the Labour Party!. We've made too many compromises already, too many retreats. The Marxists invade our political space, and we fall back. They assimilate entire constituency parties, and we fall back. Not again. The line must be drawn here! This far, no further! And I will make them pay for what they've done!"MarqueeMark said:
They lost PIcard.dyedwoolie said:Labour will at least be able to count on Eddie izzard and that Greek bloke. And Picard.
https://news.sky.com/story/sir-patrick-stewart-breaks-with-labour-after-70-years-over-jeremy-corbyns-brexit-stance-114748701 -
Have we worked out where Jeffrey Epstein got his money yet?TheScreamingEagles said:Given the Palace found time to tell the world Her Majesty's displeasure about some fluff will the Palace comment on this?
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/11754785572938956830 -
QEDdyedwoolie said:
They can be both, and probably willAnabobazina said:
So they are either ‘frit’ or ‘folding like a deckchair’.dyedwoolie said:
Neither of us I think as labour will fold like a deck chair and allow one. But we will seeAnabobazina said:dyedwoolie said:
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
Okay, noted. Let’s see who is right...
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.0 -
I'd imagine they have kompromat on half of Hollywood and Washington via the Epstein link, he had lots of visitors.TheScreamingEagles said:Given the Palace found time to tell the world Her Majesty's displeasure about some fluff will the Palace comment on this?
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/11754785572938956831 -
From the article it looks as if the YouGov poll was commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign not the newspaper itself.0
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30% ?justin124 said:
Not so - those figures imply a very Hung Parliament.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tories in Major 1997 territoryTheScreamingEagles said:New YouGov poll
Con 30 (-2)
Lab 23 (+2)
LD 22 (-1)0 -
"After 70 years". Picard as a 9 year old was a Labour supporter. Well, well.0
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HYUFD said:
Even using UNS the Tories would gain 62 seats off Labour on tonight's Opinium and only lose 11 to the LDs and say 10 to the SNP, giving a Tory majority of 72El_Capitano said:Did I really see someone upthread run Electoral Calculus on Opinium?
Ye gods. You might as well run a ZX Spectrum random number generator and call it a forecast.
Opinium is suggesting a 6.25% swing. Yougov has the swing as 2.25%.HYUFD said:
Even using UNS the Tories would gain 62 seats off Labour on tonight's Opinium and only lose 11 to the LDs and say 10 to the SNP, giving a Tory majority of 72El_Capitano said:Did I really see someone upthread run Electoral Calculus on Opinium?
Ye gods. You might as well run a ZX Spectrum random number generator and call it a forecast.0 -
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.Byronic said:
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power0 -
The methodology in the previous People's Vote polls have generally followed the same methodology as the polls for the Times/Sunday Times.JohnO said:From the article it looks as if the YouGov poll was commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign not the newspaper itself.
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His only known client was the Victoria's secret guy. He must have had others, rightGardenwalker said:
Have we worked out where Jeffrey Epstein got his money yet?TheScreamingEagles said:Given the Palace found time to tell the world Her Majesty's displeasure about some fluff will the Palace comment on this?
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1175478557293895683
Definitely not an intelligence sevice asset either.0 -
I know I was pulling you guys’ legs about triumphalism and hubris but even I hadn’t expected it to be this short-lived!HYUFD said:
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.Byronic said:
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
Where’s your backbone?0 -
Pre Conference Sunday front pages a little sub-optimal for Jezza. Even the Observer seems to think Labour is in "Brexit chaos".0
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A mischievous piece of editing on the BBC News. A Labour MP saying they risk a repeat of the EU elections, coming third or fourth - cuts to Corbyn giving the thumbs up!-1
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Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.0
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The Tories are about 10 points ahead. The Lib Dems are close to overtaking Labour. That much is clear.Anabobazina said:
I know I was pulling you guys’ legs about triumphalism and hubris but even I hadn’t expected it to be this short-lived!HYUFD said:
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.Byronic said:
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
Where’s your backbone?0 -
On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.0
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Electoral Calculus has the Tories 7 short of a majority with YouGov.TheScreamingEagles said:New YouGov poll
Con 30 (-2)
Lab 23 (+2)
LD 22 (-1)
Conservatives 319, Labour 210, Liberal Democrats 57
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=30&LAB=23&LIB=22&Brexit=16&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
The DUP would not quite hold the balance on the Yougov data.HYUFD said:
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.Byronic said:
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power0 -
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
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What about the first time incumbency boost the Tories would gain in the 20 seats they gained in 2017?justin124 said:On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
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I see very little clarity in this data!Byronic said:
The Tories are about 10 points ahead. The Lib Dems are close to overtaking Labour. That much is clear.Anabobazina said:
I know I was pulling you guys’ legs about triumphalism and hubris but even I hadn’t expected it to be this short-lived!HYUFD said:
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.Byronic said:
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
Where’s your backbone?0 -
Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.0
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Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
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After this approaching clusterfuck of a conference Labour will do well to poll over 15%justin124 said:On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
That said, there is good news for them. If these multiple rumours are true and Corbyn is close to going, then they will soon have a new and better leader. It they install someone remotely sensible like Thornberry they could be polling 30+ very soon. And headed for an election win. Volatile times0 -
That only applies in a handful of the seats gained from SNP. Their 2017 gains from Labour are not at risk at present. Gains from LDs could enjoy such a bonus - but the Con to LD swing is too big for that to make a difference here.TheScreamingEagles said:
What about the first time incumbency boost the Tories would gain in the 20 seats they gained in 2017?justin124 said:On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
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Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.1
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How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
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Hah. That’s a good point.Chris said:Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
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Are you talking about the Brexit Party who abstained on a an EU parliament vote demanding the release of Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe. You mean that pond life !Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
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Unlikely . Yougov had Labour at 23% when May called the election in April 2017 - with the Tories 20% plus ahead.Byronic said:
After this approaching clusterfuck of a conference Labour will do well to poll over 15%justin124 said:On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
That said, there is good news for them. If these multiple rumours are true and Corbyn is close to going, then they will soon have a new and better leader. It they install someone remotely sensible like Thornberry they could be polling 30+ very soon. And headed for an election win. Volatile times0 -
Because it's one of the main things we do on PB.Chris said:Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
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noneoftheabove said:
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
Your usual whataboutery. Presumably you think the action of the Lib Dem MEP's is ok then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
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It seems a bit like writing out your shopping list for Monday without taking into account that the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will be riding through town tomorrow. Perhaps literally.Chris said:Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
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No, both are asshats.steve_garner said:noneoftheabove said:
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
Your usual whataboutery. Presumably you think the action of the Lib Dem MEP's is ok then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
Unlike you, I'm happy to criticise both sides.2 -
That doesn’t make it worthwhile!AndyJS said:
Because it's one of the main things we do on PB.Chris said:Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
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I wish all our politicians had got together early on and worked consensually to deliver a sensible soft Brexit. That they didnt is not particularly the fault of the LDs who were largely bystanders in the parliamentary games with a handful of seats. The blame for that is mostly Theresa Mays followed by the Tory party and Jeremy Corbyn. In the present climate both sides will do whatever it takes.steve_garner said:noneoftheabove said:
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
Your usual whataboutery. Presumably you think the action of the Lib Dem MEP's is ok then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
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I would not even be sure of that given the Tory and Brexit Party combined total is still about level with the Labour and LD combined total and Labour would also lose a few Corbynites to the GreensByronic said:
After this approaching clusterfuck of a conference Labour will do well to poll over 15%justin124 said:On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
That said, there is good news for them. If these multiple rumours are true and Corbyn is close to going, then they will soon have a new and better leader. It they install someone remotely sensible like Thornberry they could be polling 30+ very soon. And headed for an election win. Volatile times0 -
Hear hearTheScreamingEagles said:
No, both are asshats.steve_garner said:noneoftheabove said:
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
Your usual whataboutery. Presumably you think the action of the Lib Dem MEP's is ok then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.steve_garner said:
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.Luckyguy1983 said:Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
Unlike you, I'm happy to criticise both sides.0 -
To self-loathing drunk PB Tories predicting end of Labour and Corbyn through rosacea-addled froth-flecked faces for the 400th time in the last 4 years, I'm sorry about your soon to be ongoing disappointment.1
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https://www.wiltshire999s.co.uk/british-army-to-set-up-camps-in-swindon-ahead-of-brexit-civil-unrest/
The British Army are to set up camp in Swindon on Monday, rumoured to be preparing for civil unrest in the event of a no-deal Brexit outcome next month.
It’s understood that the Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (REME) corps are moving on to the former Clares factory opposite the Oasis Leisure Centre from the start of next week, 23 September.0 -
The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.AndyJS said:Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.
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Labour voters might become an endangered species so your point would be moot.MikeSmithson said:
I think you overstate it. LAB voters much less concerned about Brexit than CPN was as was tracked at GE2017.Richard_Tyndall said:
Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.Byronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.0 -
Although the idiot moderates have fallen for the pretence that a “review” of the role will not lead to abolitionsurbiton19 said:
But three TU reps voted with Lansman. TUs don't vote accidentally. Plus all Corbyn acolytes. Maybe Corbyn left the room because he realized 2/3rd majority was not possible. It was NOT a ruthless Leftist coup. The Hard Left would have been ashamed. They reckon Momentum are a bunch of amateurs.DecrepitJohnL said:Recent machinations are certainly consistent with Jeremy Corbyn standing down in the not too distant future. @Charles mentioned doubts about Corbyn's health and it has long been rumoured that he is not enjoying leading the party. His past service reinforces the view that Corbyn is not personally ambitious.
Or it could just be a clumsy overreach by Lansman.0 -
Still there but the LDs on 15 to 20% as in Opinium rather than 20 to 25% with Yougov and the Tories closer to 35%+ with Opinium than 30% with Yougov by squeezing the Brexit Party will make the difference between a Tory majority or another hung parliament based on the YouGov and Opinium figures, Labour is polling about the same with bothAnabobazina said:
I know I was pulling you guys’ legs about triumphalism and hubris but even I hadn’t expected it to be this short-lived!HYUFD said:
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.Byronic said:
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
Where’s your backbone?0 -
Given his back story that wouldn't surprise me. Kids grow up fast when there is violence in the house.geoffw said:"After 70 years". Picard as a 9 year old was a Labour supporter. Well, well.
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The fact a nation will be doing this to itself shows the utter lunacy now running rampant in the government and in large sections of the public . .williamglenn said:https://www.wiltshire999s.co.uk/british-army-to-set-up-camps-in-swindon-ahead-of-brexit-civil-unrest/
The British Army are to set up camp in Swindon on Monday, rumoured to be preparing for civil unrest in the event of a no-deal Brexit outcome next month.
It’s understood that the Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (REME) corps are moving on to the former Clares factory opposite the Oasis Leisure Centre from the start of next week, 23 September.
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Frankly, I do not believe anymore either sets of polls. [ Opinium, YouGov ] on the one hand and the rest on the other. We need a large MRP poll [ min 20000 ] to recalibrate our compass.0
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But it still will need another Conference.Charles said:
Although the idiot moderates have fallen for the pretence that a “review” of the role will not lead to abolitionsurbiton19 said:
But three TU reps voted with Lansman. TUs don't vote accidentally. Plus all Corbyn acolytes. Maybe Corbyn left the room because he realized 2/3rd majority was not possible. It was NOT a ruthless Leftist coup. The Hard Left would have been ashamed. They reckon Momentum are a bunch of amateurs.DecrepitJohnL said:Recent machinations are certainly consistent with Jeremy Corbyn standing down in the not too distant future. @Charles mentioned doubts about Corbyn's health and it has long been rumoured that he is not enjoying leading the party. His past service reinforces the view that Corbyn is not personally ambitious.
Or it could just be a clumsy overreach by Lansman.
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Yes, no other party has ever gone back on their word before.HYUFD said:
Two words, tuition fees shows how LDs can dispense with promises when neededPClipp said:
You are unusually cynical this afternoon, Mr HY. It is the Conservatives who make promises when they are campaigning for votes, and then go back on those promises.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
It was a dramatic example to be sure, but they at least had an excuse of compromising in a coalition government. The faux superiority of other parties about tuition fees is exceedingly lame.0 -
Though from a brief look at the detailed poll data I'd be more inclined to trust the headline numbers from YouGov than ComRes. Quite a few Labour/LibDem supporters in the ComRes who didn't previously vote.OblitusSumMe said:
The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.AndyJS said:Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.
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Unfortunately if you have an error to begin with in your sample then a big sample just magnifies that .surbiton19 said:Frankly, I do not believe anymore either sets of polls. [ Opinium, YouGov ] on the one hand and the rest on the other. We need a large MRP poll [ min 20000 ] to recalibrate our compass.
So it’s not always about sample size .0 -
They will "call for" things. They will "slam" things. They're good at that.dyedwoolie said:https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1175503997328941056?s=19
MPs 'angry'. There will be tweets.0 -
The article continues:williamglenn said:https://www.wiltshire999s.co.uk/british-army-to-set-up-camps-in-swindon-ahead-of-brexit-civil-unrest/
The British Army are to set up camp in Swindon on Monday, rumoured to be preparing for civil unrest in the event of a no-deal Brexit outcome next month.
It’s understood that the Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (REME) corps are moving on to the former Clares factory opposite the Oasis Leisure Centre from the start of next week, 23 September.
"The event is being branded as an ‘urban training exercise’, but locals believe that the move could be in preparation for large-scale disorder across the county ahead of the Brexit outcome.
Local businesses have been informed of the ‘exercise’ – said to be taking place for around two weeks – and have been warned to expect to see uniformed soldiers carrying firearm."0 -
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.1 -
And while I think the opposite about the result, I would agree its about least bad options. Most would rather not be in a position where a referendum occurred, but there's precious few paths available, let alone good ones.Byronic said:
The country is already torn. It’s a question of choosing the least bad option, from here.Richard_Tyndall said:
Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.Byronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.
FWIW I think a Boris deal versus Remain referendum would produce a handy victory for a deal.0
