Om topic I'd agree a good elevator pitch message would be very useful, though if motivated enough people might supply their own and that will be enough. I'd give it 60 40 to Boris winning out at present.
Try this - Brexit doesn't end when we leave without a Deal. It just begins decades of us asking the EU for things and every time they can and will demand something more in exchange.
well thats an improvement isnt it
normally we ask get nothing back but still face the demands to cough up more
A slight misconception of how to sell. Three word slogans are useful but in themselves they don't sell anything. Neither do thirty second pitches. They are simply useful in pointing voters/consumers in a direction you want them to look.
Despite Corbyn's well documented negatives they're more than matched by Johnson's. He has shown us his promised land and it has sent many voters away shivering.
Corbyn needs a good campaign and there will be many at the top end of marketing who will be chomping at the bit to offer their support. Let's hope he has the judgement to accept their direction
I had to turn off the parliament channel last night because I was getting so angry at the lying disingenuous tossers from the party that I once belonged to standing up and saying it was "remainers" that had frustrated Brexit. It is a FUCKING LIE! Members of the current government deliberately frustrated the WA, including the hypocrite who is currently PM. They could have had the WA, left the EU and then looked to put bells and xenophobic whistles on it afterwards, but no, they blocked it and now they lie to the electorate. They really are a disgrace.
Jeremy Corbyn has allowed despicable things to be done to members of his own party by his followers including death threats and has done nothing to properly condemn them. His also tacitly anti-Semitic. Everyone has someone that loves them. Doesn't make him a nice person. He is simply a scruffier socialist Boris Johnson with a smaller brain
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
David, Boris is a turkey , he is not coming back with anything.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
MPs cant see the damage they are doing to themselves. Its not good.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
David, Boris is a turkey , he is not coming back with anything.
Oh I see. You were being serious. You're touting yourself as a bookie but only offering me a straight Cons v Lab bet?
Er, I have brilliant odds by juggling some really good bets across national and constituency lines. I very much doubt you have the time or expertise to match the bookies I use. Nor would I trust you to pay up when I win if you did. No offence.
All you needed to say was...
"I was blustering and talking crap and I know I would lose the bet".
Yes and to accuse someone of being a welcher is despicable. Who is this moron who is amazed someone on a betting site offers them a bet and they then accuse the person of being a welcher. Sounds like a real nasty piece of work.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
David, Boris is a turkey , he is not coming back with anything.
Moreover, he has no intention of coming back with anything. Whatever the EU offers it will never be enough.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
David, Boris is a turkey , he is not coming back with anything.
Moreover, he has no intention of coming back with anything. Whatever the EU offers it will never be enough.
Boris goes for a "give me the tools to get Brexit done" election.
The voters say, "sure, yeah, whatever you want - just get it bloody done man...."
Didnt TM try and do that?
She did but Parliament wasn't frustrating her then so it seemed like a lie.
Parliament is frustrating Brexit now. Big difference.
Parliament rejecting her deal 3 times wasn't frustrating Brexit????????
T May being forced to ask for an extension twice wasn't frustrating Brexit???
That happened before the 2017 election did it???
May screwed up by blowing her election BEFORE Parliament played silly buggers. At the time the 2017 election was called May had not lost a Brexit vote yet.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
The headbangers could have supported the WA which would have honoured the result. They did not. They are to blame, pure and simple, for where we are today
I do not see Labour supporting a GE before the 31st Oct, I think the plan is to give Johnson enough rope to hang himself with and call a GE once the honeymoon period is over, and Farage can savage Johnson for not leaving "do or die".
I think any election will produce the Conservatives as the largest party, as Labour cannot make gains in England or Scotland. That being said, I do not see how the Conservatives can govern without a majority. SNP and LDs cannot afford to be seen to prop up Johnson or any Conservative at this point.
Corbyn will promise the SNP and LDs the indyref 2 and the 2nd vote, but will campaign both for Scotland Remaining and Britain Leaving (but with Labours deal and a remain option). He will probably win Scotland and lose Brexit, which probably suits him fine as he can get on with his domestic agenda after that.
Miss Vance, probably be a handpicked audience. One suspect a General Election Question Time Yorkshire audience would be a gang of tigers versus an unarmed gladiator of a PM.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
The headbangers could have supported the WA which would have honoured the result. They did not. They are to blame, pure and simple, for where we are today
There was always going to be headbangers. But what about Labour? They stood on a manifesto to honour the referendum, and had three opportunities to follow through on that pledge.
One thing struck me in Boris’ outings in the Commons - the Labour Benches loathe him viscerally.
May was a Tory and while being misguided in their view was at least trying honestly and diligently to get things done. She got a hearing.
Boris they cannot abide and he will face a wall of noise and derision until he leaves office.
Morning Carlotta. That’s a very astute analysis - indeed I was struck yesterday by Corbyn crediting her for laying out her plans properly, even if he and his colleagues didn’t agree with them.
Boris is loathed - by MPs on all sides of the House.
Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.
My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.
Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
Cummings skill is in campaigning and message discipline. Not in governing.
A GE campaign will therefore play to his strengths. He will be very good at goading the other side to fall into his traps.
Everyone will know what they are but he’s so effective at creating fury and emotion that provokes many simply can’t help themselves.
The election result may hinge on the self-control of the opposition forces, and the savviness of the electorate overall.
You cannot polish a turd, Cummings is just an other overrated balloon working with a shyster and the electorate are thick. We are likely to get more of the same crap we have now whether it be Tory or Labour.
The header very much reflects my concerns. Softhead populism may well triumph in an election held in this climate. I personally think Nigel Farage would be a far more impressive leader of such a movement than Boris Johnson, however there is no doubt that Johnson has appeal to the people he is targeting, the aforesaid softheads, and there are legions of them. Unless the non-softhead vote splits incredibly efficiently between Lab and LD, seat by seat, according to who is best placed, my current feeling is 'SP' majority and Johnson thus empowered. Of course much can change and here's hoping.
Om topic I'd agree a good elevator pitch message would be very useful, though if motivated enough people might supply their own and that will be enough. I'd give it 60 40 to Boris winning out at present.
Try this - Brexit doesn't end when we leave without a Deal. It just begins decades of us asking the EU for things and every time they can and will demand something more in exchange.
well thats an improvement isnt it
normally we ask get nothing back but still face the demands to cough up more
Hows Blairs CAP reform going ?
Oh just when I was beginning to enjoy your posts you spoil it with that simplistic claptrap that could be from the most stupid UKIPPER. The EU is/was not perfect, but it works after a fashion. Our obsession with Brexit is an unnecessary distraction. It is poisoned with the type of uninformed bollox that you have just said and stops people from noticing that it is not the EU that is undemocratic but our own system of government. A system that uses FPTP as a method of distorting debate, and allows unelected PMs to be imposed on the electorate. Add to that an unelected HoLs and an unwritten constitution that can be twisted by people like Cummings. You in the Leaver camp are all being duped by the Establishment that you say you despise
Can anyone tell me if things are likely to improve here when the schools go back?
Gin was once a good poster.
Now he has followed the TGOHF, Mortimer tradition of making bullish forecasts to wind up his opponents then denying them or running away when they invariably turn out to be wrong.
Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.
My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.
Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
Cummings skill is in campaigning and message discipline. Not in governing.
A GE campaign will therefore play to his strengths. He will be very good at goading the other side to fall into his traps.
Everyone will know what they are but he’s so effective at creating fury and emotion that provokes many simply can’t help themselves.
The election result may hinge on the self-control of the opposition forces, and the savviness of the electorate overall.
You cannot polish a turd, Cummings is just an other overrated balloon working with a shyster and the electorate are thick. We are likely to get more of the same crap we have now whether it be Tory or Labour.
you cant polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter, BoJo will be very much part of the tactics in this GE. You can dispel any notion it will be based on actual policies.
The Guardian article about it at the time, in 2004, has this paragraph, which is just wonderful with the advantage of hindsight.
"The episode brings an end to an unlikely but uniquely engaging political career. Johnson, 40, who is also editor of the Spectator magazine, became one of the few modern Tories able to capture the public imagination, even provoking speculation he could be a future leader."
Corbyn and McDonnell love to say things initially that is slightly not what Starmer and their mos want, so tories get excited, then change to switch to the Starmer Brexit position.
McD is a very able man. By far the best strategic brain on the left of the party.
Off topic, I've just finished reading "All Together Now?" By Mick Carter, an account of his walk from Liverpool to London in the Spring of 2016, retracing the 1981 People's March for Jobs. His father, a communist trade union leader, organised the first march, and the book is in part a kind of reconciliation with him (the two men were estranged when his father died after a lot of tangled and quite sad family history). But more than that it is an insightful account of the sorry state of ”left behind" England - the towns of the North and Midlands that voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU just weeks later. As a fully signed up member of the Remoaner London Liberal Elite it was a sobering read. It touched on many of the issues raised by people like John Harris at the Guardian in his "Anywhere but Westminster" reports, for instance. You are left in no doubt that something close to abuse has been perpetrated on these communities since the mid 1970s. Now I don't think leaving the EU will help these places much - in fact I think on net it will leave them even worse off, which is why I am against it, especially a hard Brexit. But I do think that a radical change in how we organise and prioritise things in this country is long overdue. It actually left me, normally a centrist dad, wondering whether a dose of Corbynism may be what we need. Anyway, we can't go on as before.
The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.
His voice lacks authority. He sounds like a nervous youth or student.
Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.
Miss Vance, probably be a handpicked audience. One suspect a General Election Question Time Yorkshire audience would be a gang of tigers versus an unarmed gladiator of a PM.
Given how incompetent Boris and Cummings appear to be it wouldn't surprise me if it was an QT Yorkshire type audience.
I had to turn off the parliament channel last night because I was getting so angry at the lying disingenuous tossers from the party that I once belonged to standing up and saying it was "remainers" that had frustrated Brexit. It is a FUCKING LIE! Members of the current government deliberately frustrated the WA, including the hypocrite who is currently PM. They could have had the WA, left the EU and then looked to put bells and xenophobic whistles on it afterwards, but no, they blocked it and now they lie to the electorate. They really are a disgrace.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
I’m not sure why people are determined not to grasp this key fact. It’s almost as if they don’t want to hear it!!
If only someone had mentioned that a man who was an utterly incompetent Foreign Secretary might not be a competent PM.
I haven’t followed all the nuances as have been busy.
But I suspect it looks to the ordinary voter that Boris is trying to implement the referendum and Parliament is stopping him
Isn’t that exactly how he wants to be positioned?
It may have been a bit messier than he wanted but the outcome is what counts
Anyone with a brain cell can see he is the one trying to manipulate and wreck the country for his and his hedge fund chums benefit. People see him for the over privileged buffoon that he is and only parliament can stop the monster. They will be queuing up to vote for Corbyn or some one other than Johnson.
The header very much reflects my concerns. Softhead populism may well triumph in an election held in this climate. I personally think Nigel Farage would be a far more impressive leader of such a movement than Boris Johnson, however there is no doubt that Johnson has appeal to the people he is targeting, the aforesaid softheads, and there are legions of them. Unless the non-softhead vote splits incredibly efficiently between Lab and LD, seat by seat, according to who is best placed, my current feeling is 'SP' majority and Johnson thus empowered. Of course much can change and here's hoping.
The risk of a split "softhead" vote remains too, of course. An election which happens before Brexit will have Farage frothing at the mouth about betrayal (in my view mistakenly, given I have little doubt about BJ's willingness to accelerate off the cliff if he wins). He might win one or two seats in the south east.. but if he takes 10 per cent off a few Tory marginals, he'll probably open the door for a Remain Alliance government (which would be rather more remainy than Corbyn would want, as the price for LD/SNP support).
Even if he wins, I'm also interested in how Boris repeals the legislation forcing him to ask for an extension (or indeed any of the other legal loose ends still needed to leave) if we have an election in October and parliament doesn't sit for several days.
There's a discussion on Twitter about whether BJ would eventually comply with the law, and who's going to make him if he doesn't. It's a shame Hilary Benn didn't add a clause about a five-year minimum jail term and lifetime exclusion from public office as a penalty for non-compliance
Om topic I'd agree a good elevator pitch message would be very useful, though if motivated enough people might supply their own and that will be enough. I'd give it 60 40 to Boris winning out at present.
Try this - Brexit doesn't end when we leave without a Deal. It just begins decades of us asking the EU for things and every time they can and will demand something more in exchange.
well thats an improvement isnt it
normally we ask get nothing back but still face the demands to cough up more
Hows Blairs CAP reform going ?
Oh just when I was beginning to enjoy your posts you spoil it with that simplistic claptrap that could be from the most stupid UKIPPER. The EU is/was not perfect, but it works after a fashion. Our obsession with Brexit is an unnecessary distraction. It is poisoned with the type of uninformed bollox that you have just said and stops people from noticing that it is not the EU that is undemocratic but our own system of government. A system that uses FPTP as a method of distorting debate, and allows unelected PMs to be imposed on the electorate. Add to that an unelected HoLs and an unwritten constitution that can be twisted by people like Cummings. You in the Leaver camp are all being duped by the Establishment that you say you despise
Are you saying we didnt give up the rebate in a failed quid pro quo for CAP reform ?
As for the rest of your comments the main problem with the UKs relations with the EU is not the EU but UK politicians. The EU is fairly clear when it says what it says " closer union", army, harmonised taxes; it's largely UK politicians lying to their electorate " they dont really mean that", " we have influence" which is the problem. The gap between what our politicans tell us and what the EU means just seems all the greater when the EU goes off and does what it said it would do.
Personally if our politicans fought our corner Id have no major issue with the EU, but they dont and nor do they play it straight with the electorate.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
Welcome to the 148grss typical "why referenda on huge constitutional changes should have 2/3rd majorities" note:
Topic today: why politicians don't want to enact massive constitutional change on a slim majority of the vote.
1) Because the coalition that made up the 52% for Brexit do not have a shared vision of Brexit and therefore there will be no political reward for following through with the result.
2) Because the laws of unintended consequences means there will always be downsides to massive constitutional change, sometimes massive downsides (I'm looking at you FTPA), and with only 52% of the electorate in favour of something that is not a clear indication that even the majority of people are willing for massive pain for this change. Remember, the Leave vote one with a coalition of people who wanted Norway Brexit all the way to No Deal (although almost nobody discussed No Deal as a serious option during the campaign). To assume all 52% will now be happy with the No Deal Brexit that looks likely is political suicide for most politicians.
3) With a 66% mandate for a huge change those enacting the change can turn to the remaining 33% and say, yes really did lose, get over it, and they will. On a 52/48 mandate, with no clear vision of what the 52% actually wanted, it is easy for the 48% to convince themselves they shouldn't accept the result and try and get it overturned.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
Well, to be fair I wish I could help change the leave-voting far-right woman whom is MP for this constituency.
Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.
My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.
Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
Cummings skill is in campaigning and message discipline. Not in governing.
A GE campaign will therefore play to his strengths. He will be very good at goading the other side to fall into his traps.
Everyone will know what they are but he’s so effective at creating fury and emotion that provokes many simply can’t help themselves.
The election result may hinge on the self-control of the opposition forces, and the savviness of the electorate overall.
You cannot polish a turd, Cummings is just an other overrated balloon working with a shyster and the electorate are thick. We are likely to get more of the same crap we have now whether it be Tory or Labour.
You can polish a coprolite. I believe that's what British politics seems to be trying to do just now.
The abiding lesson from this is that no referendum result can be enacted without the consent of Parliament. And not only the consent but the support. Brexit had neither; pretending to implement it isn't enough.
On that basis, a Scottish Independence vote is also doomed. MPs have decided that they rule OK.
Unfortunately for them, the voters don't agree. So that needs fixing. I can see only one winner, and it isn't the MPs.
As I've mentioned before, the poshos don't like taking orders from the lower classes and the MPs are no exception, which means politics will continue to be febrile. A GE now based on this clash will be toxic, but I think it's inevitable to clear the air.
Hilarious. Another attempt to suggest the "Establishment" is against Brexit. I will have to remind you, once again, Boris Johnson, incompetent and failing, but currently Prime Minister, is Eton and Oxford educated, is a multi-millionaire, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory, an ex-Foreign Secretary. Have I missed any of his Establishment credentials? Shall I go through the CV of Jacob Rees Mogg? Nigel Farage? If you think any of these people have any understanding or care for the poor, or so-called working class you are very gullible indeed, and I am no socialist, I am a one time Tory activist.
Exactly these are greedy grasping sharks and are all self serving, manipulating matters to their own ends, ie making sure they and their hedge fund buddies make fortunes. They do not give a hoot for the plebs.
Off topic, I've just finished reading "All Together Now?" By Mick Carter, an account of his walk from Liverpool to London in the Spring of 2016, retracing the 1981 People's March for Jobs. His father, a communist trade union leader, organised the first march, and the book is in part a kind of reconciliation with him (the two men were estranged when his father died after a lot of tangled and quite sad family history). But more than that it is an insightful account of the sorry state of ”left behind" England - the towns of the North and Midlands that voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU just weeks later. As a fully signed up member of the Remoaner London Liberal Elite it was a sobering read. It touched on many of the issues raised by people like John Harris at the Guardian in his "Anywhere but Westminster" reports, for instance. You are left in no doubt that something close to abuse has been perpetrated on these communities since the mid 1970s. Now I don't think leaving the EU will help these places much - in fact I think on net it will leave them even worse off, which is why I am against it, especially a hard Brexit. But I do think that a radical change in how we organise and prioritise things in this country is long overdue. It actually left me, normally a centrist dad, wondering whether a dose of Corbynism may be what we need. Anyway, we can't go on as before.
The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.
His voice lacks authority. He sounds like a nervous youth or student.
Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.
Can anyone tell me if things are likely to improve here when the schools go back?
Gin was once a good poster.
Now he has followed the TGOHF, Mortimer tradition of making bullish forecasts to wind up his opponents then denying them or running away when they invariably turn out to be wrong.
Sad.
Reeeeee - lets hound Brexiteers off PB so it can be more like my twitter feed...
Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.
My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.
Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
Cummings skill is in campaigning and message discipline. Not in governing.
A GE campaign will therefore play to his strengths. He will be very good at goading the other side to fall into his traps.
Everyone will know what they are but he’s so effective at creating fury and emotion that provokes many simply can’t help themselves.
The election result may hinge on the self-control of the opposition forces, and the savviness of the electorate overall.
You cannot polish a turd, Cummings is just an other overrated balloon working with a shyster and the electorate are thick. We are likely to get more of the same crap we have now whether it be Tory or Labour.
You can polish a coprolite. I believe that's what British politics seems to be trying to do just now.
So, they’ll polish up nicely... after a few centuries of desiccation in a neglected cesspit. Aye, sounds about right.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
Any one who thought we really had democracy in the UK is an idiot. MP's have always just been sheep for the ruling elite to enact their wishes. They are happy to fill their pockets at Westminster and be herded through the lobbies by the real mob that run the country, any who had principle fobbed off by promises of more baubles. Meanwhile the thick public work their bollocks off in poverty and alternatively decry Labour or Conservatives, not enough brain cells to work out they are being had.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
The headbangers could have supported the WA which would have honoured the result. They did not. They are to blame, pure and simple, for where we are today
It doesn't matter what you or I think. I think the general public will not in general share your attribution of blame, and rightly so. I think they will see a Remain supporting establishment which has for the last 3 years fought tooth and nail to get their decision to leave reversed. Many also realise that that same establishment was prepared to allow the EU to dictate the most intolerable terms for our leaving, in the expectation that that would be helpful in getting a reversal of our decision to leave. May's surrender agreement isn't popular with the general public, is it?
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Labour might not have a say. If Con + SNP + DUP go for a one line bill naming the date as 15th October its out of Jezza's hands.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
David, Boris is a turkey , he is not coming back with anything.
Moreover, he has no intention of coming back with anything. Whatever the EU offers it will never be enough.
I thought the EU werent going to offer anything ?
His masters have told him to ask for more, they don't want any obstacles to a low wage , tax haven s**thole country in place.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
I had been thinking this was the real plan. Big up the No Deal threat but ultimately - fresh talks, deal in outline, extension to finalize, ratify and implement. GE after that.
However, the behaviour of Johnson in recent days has disabused me of this. He is confirming my worst fears about him (rather like Trump did after he won). What I'm seeing is 100% self-aggrandizment and 0% anything else.
The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.
His voice lacks authority. He sounds like a nervous youth or student.
Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.
This is a deliberate play on Nixon's "Southern Strategy" (exploiting Southern whites' fears about civil rights to turn them away from the Democrats and make them vote Republican). It later morphed into the "culture war" but it is all essentially the same, bizarrely successful, strategy. If you think the Conservatives are not importing wholesale the electoral tactics of the US right you are really not paying attention. How else do you get the working class to vote to make themselves worse off?
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Labour might not have a say. If Con + SNP + DUP go for a one line bill naming the date as 15th October its out of Jezza's hands.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Labour might not have a say. If Con + SNP + DUP go for a one line bill naming the date as 15th October its out of Jezza's hands.
There is HoL.
Blocking the election of the Commons? A brave move.
Off topic, I've just finished reading "All Together Now?" By Mick Carter, an account of his walk from Liverpool to London in the Spring of 2016, retracing the 1981 People's March for Jobs. His father, a communist trade union leader, organised the first march, and the book is in part a kind of reconciliation with him (the two men were estranged when his father died after a lot of tangled and quite sad family history). But more than that it is an insightful account of the sorry state of ”left behind" England - the towns of the North and Midlands that voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU just weeks later. As a fully signed up member of the Remoaner London Liberal Elite it was a sobering read. It touched on many of the issues raised by people like John Harris at the Guardian in his "Anywhere but Westminster" reports, for instance. You are left in no doubt that something close to abuse has been perpetrated on these communities since the mid 1970s. Now I don't think leaving the EU will help these places much - in fact I think on net it will leave them even worse off, which is why I am against it, especially a hard Brexit. But I do think that a radical change in how we organise and prioritise things in this country is long overdue. It actually left me, normally a centrist dad, wondering whether a dose of Corbynism may be what we need. Anyway, we can't go on as before.
Excellent post.
Yep. As a young consultant in the early 2000s working with the public sector, I spent much of my time in these deprived hinterlands.
Convinced me that the U.K. was deeply imbalanced and still leaves me incensed at the complete ignorance shown by both parties, and the media, in the Westminster bubble.
Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.
My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.
Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
Cummings skill is in campaigning and message discipline. Not in governing.
A GE campaign will therefore play to his strengths. He will be very good at goading the other side to fall into his traps.
Everyone will know what they are but he’s so effective at creating fury and emotion that provokes many simply can’t help themselves.
The election result may hinge on the self-control of the opposition forces, and the savviness of the electorate overall.
You cannot polish a turd, Cummings is just an other overrated balloon working with a shyster and the electorate are thick. We are likely to get more of the same crap we have now whether it be Tory or Labour.
You can polish a coprolite. I believe that's what British politics seems to be trying to do just now.
Toms, thanks for that new word. Describes many of these shysters perfectly.
Made the mistake of going to bed so I have presumably missed the discussion on why the filibuster in the Lords is being dropped. Did govt decide it wasn't a good look / wasn't going to work, or is there supposed to be some kind of quid pro quo on an election?
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Labour might not have a say. If Con + SNP + DUP go for a one line bill naming the date as 15th October its out of Jezza's hands.
There is HoL.
Labour using HoL to block an election would be fatal for labour at the election that would surely happen anyway. It would definitely make their Scottish results um 'interesting'
The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.
His voice lacks authority. He sounds like a nervous youth or student.
Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
Welcome to the 148grss typical "why referenda on huge constitutional changes should have 2/3rd majorities" note:
Topic today: why politicians don't want to enact massive constitutional change on a slim majority of the vote.
1) Because the coalition that made up the 52% for Brexit do not have a shared vision of Brexit and therefore there will be no political reward for following through with the result.
2) Because the laws of unintended consequences means there will always be downsides to massive constitutional change, sometimes massive downsides (I'm looking at you FTPA), and with only 52% of the electorate in favour of something that is not a clear indication that even the majority of people are willing for massive pain for this change. Remember, the Leave vote one with a coalition of people who wanted Norway Brexit all the way to No Deal (although almost nobody discussed No Deal as a serious option during the campaign). To assume all 52% will now be happy with the No Deal Brexit that looks likely is political suicide for most politicians.
3) With a 66% mandate for a huge change those enacting the change can turn to the remaining 33% and say, yes really did lose, get over it, and they will. On a 52/48 mandate, with no clear vision of what the 52% actually wanted, it is easy for the 48% to convince themselves they shouldn't accept the result and try and get it overturned.
Show me where Lisbon was approved by 66% and let's talk.
I do not see Labour supporting a GE before the 31st Oct, I think the plan is to give Johnson enough rope to hang himself with and call a GE once the honeymoon period is over, and Farage can savage Johnson for not leaving "do or die".
I think any election will produce the Conservatives as the largest party, as Labour cannot make gains in England or Scotland. That being said, I do not see how the Conservatives can govern without a majority. SNP and LDs cannot afford to be seen to prop up Johnson or any Conservative at this point.
Corbyn will promise the SNP and LDs the indyref 2 and the 2nd vote, but will campaign both for Scotland Remaining and Britain Leaving (but with Labours deal and a remain option). He will probably win Scotland and lose Brexit, which probably suits him fine as he can get on with his domestic agenda after that.
In what world do you see anything that would mean Corbyn could even register in Scotland never mind win it.
As they move around more you would expect them to have to registmer more. How the ratio compares to previous elections might be interesting, that more young people are registering than older people is something I would expect has always been the case?
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Labour might not have a say. If Con + SNP + DUP go for a one line bill naming the date as 15th October its out of Jezza's hands.
There is HoL.
Will HoL block a general election that Parliament has agreed to? Good luck with that...
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
Any one who thought we really had democracy in the UK is an idiot. MP's have always just been sheep for the ruling elite to enact their wishes. They are happy to fill their pockets at Westminster and be herded through the lobbies by the real mob that run the country, any who had principle fobbed off by promises of more baubles. Meanwhile the thick public work their bollocks off in poverty and alternatively decry Labour or Conservatives, not enough brain cells to work out they are being had.
You don’t get quality analysis like that from Laura “Fawning” Kuenssberg (BBC salary £220,000).
There is indeed some risk that if Labour hold off on an election until post 31st it becomes seen as playing games (I don't think anyone is actually going to think its because he is scared, it's very clear why they want to postpone, make Boris squirm).
The prize is great however, if his do or die deadline passes, Boris has failed, and it doesn't matter if it's 'his fault' or not. He would have no credibility and it would give Farage just the excuse he needs to go after Boris.
The whole frit nonsense is simply right-wing press trying to push a narrative. Given that most Mail readers are not floating voters who were wavering about going for Corbyn, it's irrelevant. If the Sun hadn't dressed Corbyn up as a chicken they would have called him a jihadi loving IRA supporting commie anyway, so it's all priced in.
Recent polling showed that it is Remain and Labour voters who were most up for an election, those people are not one's who will be put off by Corbyn's game playing.
Even if tories and no dealers now want an election, these voters were never voting Labour anyway, obviously. So from Labour's point of view, bluntly, who cares. The next election will be decided on intra coalition shifts (how BXP to Tory and LD/Lab votes divide up, rather than straight swaps from tory to lab).
Made the mistake of going to bed so I have presumably missed the discussion on why the filibuster in the Lords is being dropped. Did govt decide it wasn't a good look / wasn't going to work, or is there supposed to be some kind of quid pro quo on an election?
I don't think that's clear - it may just be that Boris was scared they'd pass it but only just, and leave them with no time to pass the election motion before Boris's prorogation kicked in (doh) ???
If a deal had been struck with the SNP to get the one liner through then amendments failing would also be part of the deal, so labour would have to rely on the unelected lords denying the electorate a vote the commons had requested
Can anyone tell me if things are likely to improve here when the schools go back?
Gin was once a good poster.
Now he has followed the TGOHF, Mortimer tradition of making bullish forecasts to wind up his opponents then denying them or running away when they invariably turn out to be wrong.
Sad.
Reeeeee - lets hound Brexiteers off PB so it can be more like my twitter feed...
Yes indeed, Leavers are fair game for personal attacks on this site.
It is noticable in polling that (supposedly tolerant, liberal) Remainers are particularly disdainful of Leavers, in that a substantial number would be concerned if their children married a supporter of Brexit. The same polling also confirms that that pattern is not reciprocated to anything like the same extent by Leavers.
Excellent header. The idea of getting "it" over with, whoever gets to define what "it" is, is indeed at the core of our current political battle and the key to success for all parties involved in it.
Agreed - that’s why not I’m not convinced labour’s Brexit pitch works
Tory: we are standing up for you LibDems: bollocks to Brexit Labour: Sod Brexit let’s talk about schools’n’hospitals
My gut tells me that a lot of people are angry about the way Parliament has behaved
But I can’t tell if that’s my view coming through or an independent projection
People are angry about MPs, but jobs schoiols and housing are more important. If the Tories go with nothing in the goody bag they will get hammered.
looking at it with fresh eyes the LDs have now the weakest stance. The current legislative shenanigans have sort of taken the urgency off the table.
The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.
His voice lacks authority. He sounds like a nervous youth or student.
Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.
Lacks authority Who? Gift to SNP Who? Slimebag Personality vacuum Evil Thick as shit ERG despise her Is he even still a Tory?
On past form, the evil one will win it.
Well, time to lay the favourite I think.
From that list I think only Mordaunt, Gove or, after any possible heatstorm and apocalypse, Stewart, have any chance.
Assuming that Johnson self-immolates at one point or another, Hunt is surely next in line - clean hands etc.
Stupid market to play though.
Hunt is the obvious successor but I think if Johnson doesn't succeed a character more fully the opposite in style might appeal, which I think is Gove more than Hunt. Mordaunt is another opposite from a possible female and more consensual point of view.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
I had been thinking this was the real plan. Big up the No Deal threat but ultimately - fresh talks, deal in outline, extension to finalize, ratify and implement. GE after that.
However, the behaviour of Johnson in recent days has disabused me of this. He is confirming my worst fears about him (rather like Trump did after he won). What I'm seeing is 100% self-aggrandizment and 0% anything else.
As with everything he does it is an act. He has no nerve for delivering no deal, hence the election and extension.
The act is reckless, shameful to loyal tory ex colleagues, disingenuous and dangerous, but he will not actually no deal.
Off topic, I've just finished reading "All Together Now?" By Mick Carter, an account of his walk from Liverpool to London in the Spring of 2016, retracing the 1981 People's March for Jobs. His father, a communist trade union leader, organised the first march, and the book is in part a kind of reconciliation with him (the two men were estranged when his father died after a lot of tangled and quite sad family history). But more than that it is an insightful account of the sorry state of ”left behind" England - the towns of the North and Midlands that voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU just weeks later. As a fully signed up member of the Remoaner London Liberal Elite it was a sobering read. It touched on many of the issues raised by people like John Harris at the Guardian in his "Anywhere but Westminster" reports, for instance. You are left in no doubt that something close to abuse has been perpetrated on these communities since the mid 1970s. Now I don't think leaving the EU will help these places much - in fact I think on net it will leave them even worse off, which is why I am against it, especially a hard Brexit. But I do think that a radical change in how we organise and prioritise things in this country is long overdue. It actually left me, normally a centrist dad, wondering whether a dose of Corbynism may be what we need. Anyway, we can't go on as before.
And how do you think those people left behind feel when the first time they vote and win, politicians refuse to implement the result?
Made the mistake of going to bed so I have presumably missed the discussion on why the filibuster in the Lords is being dropped. Did govt decide it wasn't a good look / wasn't going to work, or is there supposed to be some kind of quid pro quo on an election?
I don't think that's clear - it may just be that Boris was scared they'd pass it but only just, and leave them with no time to pass the election motion before Boris's prorogation kicked in (doh) ???
Na, prorogation can be any day up until Thu/Fri. Plenty of time for both.
Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.
My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.
Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
Cummings skill is in campaigning and message discipline. Not in governing.
A GE campaign will therefore play to his strengths. He will be very good at goading the other side to fall into his traps.
Everyone will know what they are but he’s so effective at creating fury and emotion that provokes many simply can’t help themselves.
The election result may hinge on the self-control of the opposition forces, and the savviness of the electorate overall.
You cannot polish a turd, Cummings is just an other overrated balloon working with a shyster and the electorate are thick. We are likely to get more of the same crap we have now whether it be Tory or Labour.
you cant polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter, BoJo will be very much part of the tactics in this GE. You can dispel any notion it will be based on actual policies.
Alan, of that we can be sure, I bet they are grooming the unicorns as we post
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Labour might not have a say. If Con + SNP + DUP go for a one line bill naming the date as 15th October its out of Jezza's hands.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Labour might not have a say. If Con + SNP + DUP go for a one line bill naming the date as 15th October its out of Jezza's hands.
There is HoL.
Lords block a general election with Corbyn supporting the move. That will go down well in the country.
One thing struck me in Boris’ outings in the Commons - the Labour Benches loathe him viscerally.
May was a Tory and while being misguided in their view was at least trying honestly and diligently to get things done. She got a hearing.
Boris they cannot abide and he will face a wall of noise and derision until he leaves office.
He seems to me to be so into himself noise from anywhere would be water off a duck's back. I was taken though by Jess Phillips whose anger towards him was palpable. A sincere woman coming face to face with a dilettante who didn't give a damn about anyone or anything other than himself. I felt for her as did most of those watching. The antithesis of Mrs May
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
And the only way he gets there is via an election which he just blocked. Genius.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
If only The UK's political leaders knew what sort of relationship they wanted with the EU. There is a degree of wilful deception about what sort of EU developments on fiscal and monetary policy would be acceptable to Remain politicians. Too many politicians claimed that The EU was not an issue despite over time signing more treaties which changed the power relationships between Westminster and Brussels. Labour and others bang on about unspecified 'reforms' are needed.
The referendum let loose problems which had been contained by politicians unwilling to open Pandora's box. Cameron fouled up by not adding turnout clauses to the referendum, and relying on Project Fear to keep people on board. Clearing off so quickly to leave others to sort out the mess damns him and Osborne.
I'm not all that surprised by the remainer-love for Nick Soames. It is quite entertaining to see him constantly referred to in the press as Churchill's grandson, as if that's the most important thing about him. I expect that's being pushed to encourage the people to take his opinion more seriously. I wonder how many of the people impressed by that would be so impressed when reminded that he had to apologise to the people's Princess for calling her an insane fantasist when she claimed Charles had had an affair.
Just catching up on last night's threads and was interested to read the Cathedrals comments. I've just got back from a road trip to Italy and visited quite a few on the journey. We went to Troyes, Dijon, Grenoble, Turin, Genoa, not a cathedral but very beautiful collegiate church of Saints Peter and Stephen in Bellinzona, Bern, Freiburg, Reims, and finally Laon. I'm not sure how many will end up being in my top ten, but all are worth a visit.
Comments
normally we ask get nothing back but still face the demands to cough up more
Hows Blairs CAP reform going ?
Despite Corbyn's well documented negatives they're more than matched by Johnson's. He has shown us his promised land and it has sent many voters away shivering.
Corbyn needs a good campaign and there will be many at the top end of marketing who will be chomping at the bit to offer their support. Let's hope he has the judgement to accept their direction
A turkey versus a chicken
The story was reported, Boris denied it and than it was found out to be true.
Boris is one of those people (and I've known others) who while great to spend time with you really can't trust.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1169518225786396672
May screwed up by blowing her election BEFORE Parliament played silly buggers. At the time the 2017 election was called May had not lost a Brexit vote yet.
I think any election will produce the Conservatives as the largest party, as Labour cannot make gains in England or Scotland. That being said, I do not see how the Conservatives can govern without a majority. SNP and LDs cannot afford to be seen to prop up Johnson or any Conservative at this point.
Corbyn will promise the SNP and LDs the indyref 2 and the 2nd vote, but will campaign both for Scotland Remaining and Britain Leaving (but with Labours deal and a remain option). He will probably win Scotland and lose Brexit, which probably suits him fine as he can get on with his domestic agenda after that.
Boris is loathed - by MPs on all sides of the House.
We are likely to get more of the same crap we have now whether it be Tory or Labour.
Gin was once a good poster.
Now he has followed the TGOHF, Mortimer tradition of making bullish forecasts to wind up his opponents then denying them or running away when they invariably turn out to be wrong.
Sad.
"The episode brings an end to an unlikely but uniquely engaging political career. Johnson, 40, who is also editor of the Spectator magazine, became one of the few modern Tories able to capture the public imagination, even provoking speculation he could be a future leader."
McD is a very able man. By far the best strategic brain on the left of the party.
As a fully signed up member of the Remoaner London Liberal Elite it was a sobering read. It touched on many of the issues raised by people like John Harris at the Guardian in his "Anywhere but Westminster" reports, for instance. You are left in no doubt that something close to abuse has been perpetrated on these communities since the mid 1970s.
Now I don't think leaving the EU will help these places much - in fact I think on net it will leave them even worse off, which is why I am against it, especially a hard Brexit. But I do think that a radical change in how we organise and prioritise things in this country is long overdue. It actually left me, normally a centrist dad, wondering whether a dose of Corbynism may be what we need. Anyway, we can't go on as before.
They've made one mistake by making him leader. They ought not make a second trying to sell him. Better to tip the incompetent overboard.
Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.
Javid 10/1
Mordaunt 16/1
Rees-Mogg 16/1
Cleverley 20/1
Gove 20/1
Hunt 20/1
Raab 20/1
Patel 25/1
Rudd 25/1
Stewart 25/1
What an absolute shower!
Lacks authority
Who?
Gift to SNP
Who?
Slimebag
Personality vacuum
Evil
Thick as shit
ERG despise her
Is he even still a Tory?
On past form, the evil one will win it.
That WA - John Milton comes to mind.
People see him for the over privileged buffoon that he is and only parliament can stop the monster. They will be queuing up to vote for Corbyn or some one other than Johnson.
Even if he wins, I'm also interested in how Boris repeals the legislation forcing him to ask for an extension (or indeed any of the other legal loose ends still needed to leave) if we have an election in October and parliament doesn't sit for several days.
There's a discussion on Twitter about whether BJ would eventually comply with the law, and who's going to make him if he doesn't. It's a shame Hilary Benn didn't add a clause about a five-year minimum jail term and lifetime exclusion from public office as a penalty for non-compliance
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-hangs-on-to-its-cap-subsidies-as-blair-caves-in-over-eu-rebate-517769.html
As for the rest of your comments the main problem with the UKs relations with the EU is not the EU but UK politicians. The EU is fairly clear when it says what it says " closer union", army, harmonised taxes; it's largely UK politicians lying to their electorate " they dont really mean that", " we have influence" which is the problem. The gap between what our politicans tell us and what the EU means just seems all the greater when the EU goes off and does what it said it would do.
Personally if our politicans fought our corner Id have no major issue with the EU, but they dont and nor do they play it straight with the electorate.
They are simply reaping what they have sown.
Topic today: why politicians don't want to enact massive constitutional change on a slim majority of the vote.
1) Because the coalition that made up the 52% for Brexit do not have a shared vision of Brexit and therefore there will be no political reward for following through with the result.
2) Because the laws of unintended consequences means there will always be downsides to massive constitutional change, sometimes massive downsides (I'm looking at you FTPA), and with only 52% of the electorate in favour of something that is not a clear indication that even the majority of people are willing for massive pain for this change. Remember, the Leave vote one with a coalition of people who wanted Norway Brexit all the way to No Deal (although almost nobody discussed No Deal as a serious option during the campaign). To assume all 52% will now be happy with the No Deal Brexit that looks likely is political suicide for most politicians.
3) With a 66% mandate for a huge change those enacting the change can turn to the remaining 33% and say, yes really did lose, get over it, and they will. On a 52/48 mandate, with no clear vision of what the 52% actually wanted, it is easy for the 48% to convince themselves they shouldn't accept the result and try and get it overturned.
https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1169522175293964290
""West Yorkshire voted Remain in highest immigration areas"
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/eu-referendum-west-yorkshire-voted-11521985
Perhaps Johnson will be travelling to a low-immigration, high skills-loss area, then.
Not visiting it if he's touring Yorkshire would stand out like a sore thumb. It's the biggest city in the county and fourth biggest in the country.
Meanwhile the thick public work their bollocks off in poverty and alternatively decry Labour or Conservatives, not enough brain cells to work out they are being had.
However, the behaviour of Johnson in recent days has disabused me of this. He is confirming my worst fears about him (rather like Trump did after he won). What I'm seeing is 100% self-aggrandizment and 0% anything else.
If you think the Conservatives are not importing wholesale the electoral tactics of the US right you are really not paying attention. How else do you get the working class to vote to make themselves worse off?
Convinced me that the U.K. was deeply imbalanced and still leaves me incensed at the complete ignorance shown by both parties, and the media, in the Westminster bubble.
Brexit is a conspiracy against such places.
Stupid market to play though.
The prize is great however, if his do or die deadline passes, Boris has failed, and it doesn't matter if it's 'his fault' or not. He would have no credibility and it would give Farage just the excuse he needs to go after Boris.
The whole frit nonsense is simply right-wing press trying to push a narrative. Given that most Mail readers are not floating voters who were wavering about going for Corbyn, it's irrelevant. If the Sun hadn't dressed Corbyn up as a chicken they would have called him a jihadi loving IRA supporting commie anyway, so it's all priced in.
Recent polling showed that it is Remain and Labour voters who were most up for an election, those people are not one's who will be put off by Corbyn's game playing.
Even if tories and no dealers now want an election, these voters were never voting Labour anyway, obviously. So from Labour's point of view, bluntly, who cares. The next election will be decided on intra coalition shifts (how BXP to Tory and LD/Lab votes divide up, rather than straight swaps from tory to lab).
It is noticable in polling that (supposedly tolerant, liberal) Remainers are particularly disdainful of Leavers, in that a substantial number would be concerned if their children married a supporter of Brexit. The same polling also confirms that that pattern is not reciprocated to anything like the same extent by Leavers.
The act is reckless, shameful to loyal tory ex colleagues, disingenuous and dangerous, but he will not actually no deal.
The referendum let loose problems which had been contained by politicians unwilling to open Pandora's box. Cameron fouled up by not adding turnout clauses to the referendum, and relying on Project Fear to keep people on board. Clearing off so quickly to leave others to sort out the mess damns him and Osborne.
Just catching up on last night's threads and was interested to read the Cathedrals comments. I've just got back from a road trip to Italy and visited quite a few on the journey. We went to Troyes, Dijon, Grenoble, Turin, Genoa, not a cathedral but very beautiful collegiate church of Saints Peter and Stephen in Bellinzona, Bern, Freiburg, Reims, and finally Laon. I'm not sure how many will end up being in my top ten, but all are worth a visit.