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  • Jacob Rees-Mogg is posh and condescending. Everyone knows that so what is the point of attacking him for being posh and condescending? It did not work against Boris and did not work against Cameron. That's his shtick; it is priced in.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    I don't think that will work, its too clever by half.

    The public aren't fools, if Parliament forces an extension with Boris voting against [and expelling any Tories who vote in favour] then it will be the opposition who broke Boris's pledge not Boris.

    Boris will spend the next couple of months shouting from the rooftops this is why he needs a majority. And he'd be right.

    The Conservative Conference would be an election rally.

    I'd expect the Tories to be at least 40% by November if this happens.
    Do or Die.

    He did neither.
  • eek said:

    All that shows is Masterton can't identify a known liar lying to him.
    But we know the Government is not trying to do a deal. What's his problem?
  • 1 for 1

    So long Warner :)
  • Same as the MPs who voted Remain. They decide if they can live with a policy of leaving 31 Oct do or die, or not.
    Burn them!!!! BURN THE WITCHES!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Purge the impure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • You really think the Tories will stand aside in vast swathes of Northern seats?
    No. How do you get to that from my question?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    eek said:

    Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
    Costa on BBC Radio Leicester said that he was reassured by the PM that a Deal was nearly there. Gullible or a coward?
  • Burn them!!!! BURN THE WITCHES!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Purge the impure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I never said anything like that.

    We have a destiny we are going to and they can decide if they want to be a part of that or not. If not its a free country but get off the train.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    I don't think that will work, its too clever by half.

    The public aren't fools, if Parliament forces an extension with Boris voting against [and expelling any Tories who vote in favour] then it will be the opposition who broke Boris's pledge not Boris.

    Boris will spend the next couple of months shouting from the rooftops this is why he needs a majority. And he'd be right.

    The Conservative Conference would be an election rally.

    I'd expect the Tories to be at least 40% by November if this happens.
    In that case, we can expect Johnson to agree if Corbyn suggests an election date in November or December, then?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    No. How do you get to that from my question?

    That’s the pact.
  • TOPPING said:

    Do or Die.

    He did neither.
    He did. His majority died.

    Now he needs a new majority. Simple.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Boris will spend the next couple of months shouting from the rooftops this is why he needs a majority

    He had a majority.

    He threw it away and shut down Parliament.

    He was in charge.

    If he can't hack it, elect someone who can...
  • Nigelb said:

    'How dare you question my entitlement by making excuses for my behaviour ?'
    These Tory Leaver chaps really are impressive. How do you satirise them? Rees-Mogg is comic fiction personified.
  • Scott_P said:
    Wasn't the consensus here that Boris and Cummings were trying to flush out the rebels and force them to act sooner rather than later?

    Seems like it worked.
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg is posh and condescending. Everyone knows that so what is the point of attacking him for being posh and condescending? It did not work against Boris and did not work against Cameron. That's his shtick; it is priced in.

    Had a chat with a friend who is not particularly political on the JRM pose. Her view was that 'so what?'.

    I think the only people who will get truly excised by this as those who didn't like JRM and BoJo anyway.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    IF I was Cummings and IF I had war-gamed this then the masterstroke would be a deal with Farage, bringing him into the foldgiving him a safe seat and a role in government, and going full on no-deal.

    thats still possible.

    I said about a fortnight ago that DC ought to start and deny a rumour that he'd just had dinner with Farage/Tice/other BXP bod. Doing so now looks panicked, though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is posh and condescending. Everyone knows that so what is the point of attacking him for being posh and condescending? It did not work against Boris and did not work against Cameron. That's his shtick; it is priced in.

    It was disrespectful that irritated me.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,737
    Foxy said:

    Costa on BBC Radio Leicester said that he was reassured by the PM that a Deal was nearly there. Gullible or a coward?
    Gullible - completely Gullible as the word from various Governments in Europe is that we haven't said or offered anything.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    He did. His majority died.

    Now he needs a new majority. Simple.
    Do or Die is thankfully one of the less ambiguous phrases of the English language.

    He neither did, nor did he die.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    Sir Cliff settles with BBC, his legal costs were well over a Lineker

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49576940
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    Charles said:

    Important to distinguish between party and government

    Boris said. I am leader of the party. This is my policy. If you don’t agree then there’s the door

    He won a clear majority of Tory MPs.

    Those that don’t support the leadership on this fundamental policy can exit stage left
    Agree, the conservatives can withdraw the whip from whoever they want for whatever reason (just as May could, maybe should, have withdrawn the whip from Johnson and others when they voted against her government's most important bill). I'm just objecting to the argument that this has to happen to rebels on this occasion because the bill in parliament was "a matter of confidence".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Wasn't the consensus here that Boris and Cummings were trying to flush out the rebels and force them to act sooner rather than later?

    Seems like it worked.
    As I mentioned upthread, taking a leaf out of the book of the LDs they now have a clear (or at least clearer) position that people can understand. The only problem is there remain a) 5m Cons Remain voters; and b) The Brexit Party.

    That is the tightrope he needs to walk.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    Charles said:

    Important to distinguish between party and government

    Boris said. I am leader of the party. This is my policy. If you don’t agree then there’s the door

    He won a clear majority of Tory MPs.

    Those that don’t support the leadership on this fundamental policy can exit stage left
    Could you please explain?

    Are you saying it was a matter of confidence in the PM and his policy, and those Tory MPs who oppose him should be expelled from the party? A strong position to take I suggest.

    Or are you saying it was a matter of confidence in the Government - in which case the PM, having lost the confidence of the House, should resign.
  • eristdoof said:

    Floating voters this week will still be floating voters at the start of the election campaign, when the "scared of an election" slogan will be laughable.
    1 Most voters have never heard of the FTPA - they think the PM calls elections

    2 If there is an election Johnson will get the praise/blame for bringing it about

    3 Elections called unexpectedly early do not usually go well for governments - 2017, Feb 1974, 1970 and 1951 come to mind. Even Oct 1974 produced a much lower Labour majority than was expected at the start of the campaign. 1966 is the only exception

    4 Johnson is in a uniquely weak position, vulnerable to attacks from right and left, his party is imploding and it is not at all clear that it is any fit state to fight the ground war that is crucial in marginal contests.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    I don't think that will work, its too clever by half.

    The public aren't fools, if Parliament forces an extension with Boris voting against [and expelling any Tories who vote in favour] then it will be the opposition who broke Boris's pledge not Boris.

    Boris will spend the next couple of months shouting from the rooftops this is why he needs a majority. And he'd be right.

    The Conservative Conference would be an election rally.

    I'd expect the Tories to be at least 40% by November if this happens.
    The issue is that Johnson has set himself up as a strong man. If he can be shown to be defeated by parliament on his "do or die" pledge, it doesn't matter if it wasn't his choice, it shows he cannot assert his will and get things done.

    For many voters his failure to do this won't necessarily mean they won't accept he tried, but that the normal routes of getting things done won't work, and so it is worth a punt on BXP.

    And that is how Farage will play it as well: "Boris tried to fight the good fight, but the Tory party isn't up to the task of actually doing this, vote for me instead, I am the strong man who can make this happen"
  • moonshine said:

    I think there's something in this. Who do the 50-55% of Pro Union voters vote for? Corbyn's made it fairly clear he'd give up the union in exchange for power, which will turn off a good chunk of them once they think about it during an election. What's the Venn diagram overlap between Scottish Leaver (edit: 38%!!) and Unionist (50-55%)? I can personally see the Tories defying the odds in Scotland.
    Except that isn’t the Venn diagram overlap.

    Not all Scottish Leavers are Unionists, and not all Scottish Unionists are Leavers. Far from it.
  • That’s the pact.
    Of course it would not be. Why would the Conservatives do that?
  • Scott_P said:

    He had a majority.

    He threw it away and shut down Parliament.

    He was in charge.

    If he can't hack it, elect someone who can...
    He can hack it. He hacked it by expelling those who refused to honour our commitments.

    Now the public has a choice. If they want the likes of Boles, Grieves and the rest of the wets they can vote for the Lib Dems or whoever else they stand for.

    If the public wants to leave they can vote for the Conservatives.

    Either way this looks like getting resolved in the ballot box which is probably the healthiest method for everyone concerned. But at the very least if people vote Conservative they know we are leaving, not electing people like Boles, Soubry, Grieve etc who think they are better than the voters and the whip.
  • Wasn't the consensus here that Boris and Cummings were trying to flush out the rebels and force them to act sooner rather than later?

    Seems like it worked.
    Please explain to me how moving from a working majority of 1 to -44 is a victory?

  • It seems very obvious that they wanted this rebellion, and wanted it to be big. They have spent the last two weeks provoking it, in manners that were never going to actually lead to no deal.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is posh and condescending. Everyone knows that so what is the point of attacking him for being posh and condescending? It did not work against Boris and did not work against Cameron. That's his shtick; it is priced in.

    He is in a different league altogether. His preening self regard is much more reminiscent of Bercow than of Cameron and Johnson.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317

    Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.

    The 10 year trend of mid term polls being completely wrong points to laying NOM I think
  • Charles said:

    At the EU is saying no to any proposal

    There’s no point in throwing resources at it until they are willing to negotiate

    But isn't the government line the EU is ready to negotiate and are beginning to move?

    Which cioncrete proposals put forward by the government has the EU said No to?



  • It seems very obvious that they wanted this rebellion, and wanted it to be big. They have spent the last two weeks provoking it, in manners that were never going to actually lead to no deal.
    Absolutely! How is this not blindingly obvious?

    Post election Boris will have a much more loyal party left behind. Or he loses in which case the headache isn't his. Either way he's gotten rid of the rotten apples.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    nico67 said:

    Surely Labour should only accept a general election once no deal cannot happen on 31 st October .

    That would mean Bozo has broken his promise and keeps the Brexit Party taking votes from the Tories .

    An election before then could still deliver a no deal if the Tories get a majority .

    The one thing that has changed though is the removal of the whip from the rebels . If you’ve got nothing left to lose then more of those rebels might back a VONC .

    I said this earlier:

    My ideal Christmas present:

    Lab refuses to approve a GE until after 31st as only way of making sure govt do not renege on law. Nov 4th, Lab VoNC govt in knowledge deadline is gone and they have until whenever to worry about no deal. Either Labour led gov forms and immediately calls a GE or 14 days go by, no govt forms, GE is called. The Thursday 6 weeks after that 14 days? Boxing day. Good GE day: people already off work (sorry council workers who have to do the count), families are together so intergenerational discussion on which direction the country should go, New Year, New Govt, start 2020 tabula rasa (yeah, right).
  • I guess the groaners would be the 44% of those who don't think there should be a referendum in the next 5 years as opposed to the 45% that do? It's odd that when Unionists are asked to facilitate this referendum that'll kill off indy for evvah, it's always no, no, no.

    Of course you know when Unionists are bleating about the wording of the question for this second referendum that's definitely, definitely not going to happen that the game's a bogey (or an IDS as it shall henceforth be known).
    😆
  • nichomar said:

    Punters having seen Johnson last night thinking he is going to trash it come the election and the realization if the opposition plays it right the election is after 31/10
    An election on October 14/15 is for the birds, isn't it? It's perfectly plausible that the next election will result in another hung parliament (2 of the last 3 have been), in which case there won't be a functioning PM for that oh-so-important EU council on the 18th.

    Still, I'm sure it's all been wargamed out.
  • Please explain to me how moving from a working majority of 1 to -44 is a victory?

    He had no working majority, he had a fake one.

    First step to fix a problem is to admit you have a problem. Now he knows what his true support is and can work to get a real working majority.
  • isam said:

    Inverse snobberry. So distasteful
    Or basic manners, if someone was doing that in a meeting I was leading they would be asked to leave. And leave would mean leave.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    Of course it would not be. Why would the Conservatives do that?
    Exactly.

    What is the Brexit Party play here?

    Boris wont commit to ‘no deal’ at all costs so their only option is to stand.

    Their supporters on Twitter want a pact where the Tories stand aside in Northern Leave seats. It’s not going to happen.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    I never said anything like that.

    We have a destiny we are going to and they can decide if they want to be a part of that or not. If not its a free country but get off the train.
    Don't believe in a pre-ordained destiny. We can make a reasonable stab at what's going to happen, given what we know (See Rumsfeld) but, again see Rumsfeld, there are always unknown unknowns. Natural events, for example.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,737
    edited September 2019
    So the next election will be:-

    BXP - leave europe now (without a deal)
    Tory - leave europe now (with a deal if europe blinks (and they won't) so without a deal)
    Labour - renegotiate and a second referendum
    Lib Dems - revoke
    SNP revoke

    Suddenly the Labour policy everyone has hated for a year is starting to look sane... Corbyn really is a lucky general.
  • But isn't the government line the EU is ready to negotiate and are beginning to move?

    Which cioncrete proposals put forward by the government has the EU said No to?



    No need to put forward concrete proposals yet. The time to do so is in the days or hours before the EU Council Meeting when they want a deal and are ready to move.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    No need to put forward concrete proposals yet. The time to do so is in the days or hours before the EU Council Meeting when they want a deal and are ready to move.
    How do you expect the EU to ratify any agreement before Oct 31?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    eek said:

    So the next election will be:-

    BXP - leave europe now (without a deal)
    Tory - leave europe now (with a deal if europe blinks (and they won't) so without a deal)
    Labour - renegotiate and a second referendum
    Lib Dems - revoke
    SNP revoke

    Suddenly the Labour policy everyone has hated for a year is starting to look sane... Corbyn really is a lucky general.

    a wide definition of sanity
  • Don't believe in a pre-ordained destiny. We can make a reasonable stab at what's going to happen, given what we know (See Rumsfeld) but, again see Rumsfeld, there are always unknown unknowns. Natural events, for example.
    Stupid autocorrect. It was meant to be destination [hence get off the train if they don't like the destination].
  • Some very good cricket here. English bowling is excellent 13-1
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317
    eek said:

    So the next election will be:-

    BXP - leave europe now (without a deal)
    Tory - leave europe now (with a deal if europe blinks (and they won't) so without a deal)
    Labour - renegotiate and a second referendum
    Lib Dems - revoke
    SNP revoke

    Suddenly the Labour policy everyone has hated for a year is starting to look sane... Corbyn really is a lucky general.

    Most people want it over and done with one way or the other in my experience. Labours policy is the worst for them
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Johnson has Lost control of Brexit.
    Johnson has Lost control of his Party.
    Johnson has Lost control of the House.
    Johnson has lost control of the election date.
    Johnson has lost many One Nation Tory MPs and Voters
    All on day 1.
    HYUFD great day for Johnson!!
  • No need to put forward concrete proposals yet. The time to do so is in the days or hours before the EU Council Meeting when they want a deal and are ready to move.

    So Johnson is currently lying about the EU's readiness to negotiate?

  • How do you expect the EU to ratify any agreement before Oct 31?
    A vote in Council on the 17th followed by a vote in Parliament in the fortnight afterwards. Job done.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Absolutely! How is this not blindingly obvious?

    Post election Boris will have a much more loyal party left behind. Or he loses in which case the headache isn't his. Either way he's gotten rid of the rotten apples.
    Sounds like a suspiciously Corbyn-type search for purity, even if, or maybe preferably in opposition.
  • So Johnson is currently lying about the EU's readiness to negotiate?

    No. Talks are already underway but we aren't at the concrete stage yet.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    edited September 2019

    No need to put forward concrete proposals yet. The time to do so is in the days or hours before the EU Council Meeting when they want a deal and are ready to move.
    You have no idea what concrete proposals mean, do you? It takes months or years to sort out highly complex interactions. You simply cannot wait until 2 or 3 days before a meeting and go in there vaguely waving your hands in the air. That is what you do for ideas. Concrete proposals are several orders of magnitude more work.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    A vote in Council on the 17th followed by a vote in Parliament in the fortnight afterwards. Job done.
    Good luck with that.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    malcolmg said:

    It was commentators that said it needed 60% not the Government, they are getting more popular after 12 years not less, they have NO opposition, it is nothing like Quebec where Canada gave them powers and money and kept their promises. There is no conundrum for Sturgeon , she will be out if she does not have a referendum.
    Don't think you are right about Nicola, the party will stay ultra-loyal to her whatever. There is no plausible alternative leader, for one thing. And I still think she is torn about a referendum - the whole argument about being careful about what you wish for.

    I also think you may be under-estimating "referendum fatigue" up here.
  • Negates 100% of the sympathy he was getting on here last night (much of it from opponents).
    Also makes the 'he's a tall bloke trying to listen to the speaker' brigade look like diddies.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    1 Most voters have never heard of the FTPA - they think the PM calls elections

    2 If there is an election Johnson will get the praise/blame for bringing it about

    3 Elections called unexpectedly early do not usually go well for governments - 2017, Feb 1974, 1970 and 1951 come to mind. Even Oct 1974 produced a much lower Labour majority than was expected at the start of the campaign. 1966 is the only exception

    4 Johnson is in a uniquely weak position, vulnerable to attacks from right and left, his party is imploding and it is not at all clear that it is any fit state to fight the ground war that is crucial in marginal contests.
    My parents are pretty clued up, middle class, university educated, politically engaged people. But I had to explain the FTPA to them as recently as Sunday. I think there is a mistaken consensus out there that the PM still calls elections. Last time it happened it was certainly spun as May's decision to do so - the famous Daily Mail "Crush the Sabateurs" cover described it as her "stunning move". I think making this mud stick to the opposition will be difficult.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,099
    eek said:

    All that shows is Masterton can't identify a known liar lying to him.
    Or chooses to ignore it and use the lie as a get out of jail card
  • Wasn't the consensus here that Boris and Cummings were trying to flush out the rebels and force them to act sooner rather than later?

    Seems like it worked.
    Yes, that's my view. I assume that he will mostly be successful in electing MPs loyal to Johnson and no deal in the seats currently held by the 21+ rebels - Rushcliffe, Bracknell, etc, though many on the list look vulnerable to the Lib Dems or Labour - Putney, Winchester, Wimbledon, Watford, Romsey and Southampton North.

    From that point of view the greater the number of rebels flushed out now, when they can be deselected ahead of a general election, the better. Then there will be more ideological zealots, like Steve Baker, or dead-eyed careerists, like Matt Hancock, to replace them and march obediently through the lobby.

    The electorate can be fickle, though, it may not go as planned, but so far I would say they would view it as job done.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    Stupid autocorrect. It was meant to be destination [hence get off the train if they don't like the destination].
    Agree about auto-correct being a pain. 'Destination' makes much more sense.

    We're back to agreeing again!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    TOPPING said:

    Sounds like a suspiciously Corbyn-type search for purity, even if, or maybe preferably in opposition.
    Having had years of telling people to fk off and join UKIP the Conservatives have changed tack and are telling people to fk off and join the LDs.

    really they need every vote they can get.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    Please explain to me how moving from a working majority of 1 to -44 is a victory?

    Because its achieved they outcome they (Boris and Cummings wanted)

    At any point from Boris becoming leader to yesterday's vote they could have dialled back the rhetoric and started compromise.

    Instead they ratched it up and even had Cummings berating the Remainer delegation when they went to meet Boris yesterday.

    Given then way they have played this you have to fink its gone entirely to as expected and to plan - which makes it a success if not a victory?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317
    edited September 2019

    Or basic manners, if someone was doing that in a meeting I was leading they would be asked to leave. And leave would mean leave.
    Leave doesn’t mean leave, we know that!

    There are instances of bad manners every single time the commons is in session - interrupting, being drunk, booing & jeering, talking over someone, falling asleep.

    JRM is porn for middle class, middle aged wannabe rebels because it makes them feel like they’re at Uni again, but in general working class people quite like an eccentric posho
  • It seems very obvious that they wanted this rebellion, and wanted it to be big. They have spent the last two weeks provoking it, in manners that were never going to actually lead to no deal.

    I think that's right. What they have also counted on, though, is that Labour would back an immediate election. This is where the plan could fall down.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Please explain to me how moving from a working majority of 1 to -44 is a victory?

    I think there are more defections to come when no deal is forthcoming after Eu summit
  • eek said:

    So the next election will be:-

    BXP - leave europe now (without a deal)
    Tory - leave europe now (with a deal if europe blinks (and they won't) so without a deal)
    Labour - renegotiate and a second referendum
    Lib Dems - revoke
    SNP revoke

    Suddenly the Labour policy everyone has hated for a year is starting to look sane... Corbyn really is a lucky general.

    The Labour position isnt great, borderline sane perhaps. Realistically neither they nor the EU are going to put much effort into coming up with a great deal if they both prefer remain and are going to put it to a deal vs remain referendum!

    T May deal vs remain would make more sense. Or ask an all party commission of leavers to lead the negotiations with the EU and come up with a platform vs remain.

    Starmer leading the negotiations when he has already said whatever he comes up with he will then support remain is not a serious policy but a waste of time.
  • He had no working majority, he had a fake one.

    First step to fix a problem is to admit you have a problem. Now he knows what his true support is and can work to get a real working majority.
    He had no working majority, he had a fake one - now he has a big minority and it is possible that Corbyn might cobble together a bigger grouping for temporary purposes. He would have a majority of 5 IIRC...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    1 for 1

    One better than Mr Johnson's government in Parliament
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Having had years of telling people to fk off and join UKIP the Conservatives have changed tack and are telling people to fk off and join the LDs.

    really they need every vote they can get.
    So *that's* how winning elections work??!!
  • I never said anything like that.
    Sorry. I am just trying to get into the mood of the moment, where black is white, good is bad, etc....
  • kamski said:

    Agree, the conservatives can withdraw the whip from whoever they want for whatever reason (just as May could, maybe should, have withdrawn the whip from Johnson and others when they voted against her government's most important bill). I'm just objecting to the argument that this has to happen to rebels on this occasion because the bill in parliament was "a matter of confidence".
    It was a matter of confidence, the PM said so before the vote.

    And the idea the PM resigns following losing a vote of confidence is a total myth. Tradition is an election following a loss of confidence and under the terms of the FTPA the PM is tabling an election motion.
  • I never said anything like that.

    We have a destiny we are going to and they can decide if they want to be a part of that or not. If not its a free country but get off the train.
    When folk start going on about 'a destiny (singular) we are going to', that's never worrying, not in the slightest.
  • isam said:

    Leave doesn’t mean leave, we know that!

    There are instances of bad manners every single time the commons is in session - interrupting, being drunk, booing & jeering, talking over someone, falling asleep.

    JRM is porn for middle class, middle aged wannabe rebels because it makes them feel like they’re at Uni again, but in general working class people quite like an eccentric posho

    They don't like Jeremy Corbyn.

    It is true, though, that there has always been a strong tradition of deference within the working class - hence the working class Tory vote. Alf Garnett would love JRM.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247

    Please explain to me how moving from a working majority of 1 to -44 is a victory?

    It is the Black Knight strategy. The Holy Grail is the political parable of our times...

    https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited September 2019


    How do you expect the EU to ratify any agreement before Oct 31?

    The European Parliament seems to be in session from Oct 21st to 24th, don't know how long they need or how much flexibility they have to say "drop everything, we're doing the brexit".

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sed/doc/news/lookingaheadagenda/21361/Cal2019_en.pdf
  • When we didn’t leave in March, Johnson said it wasn’t the fault of MPs but because May was “chicken”. If parliament makes him stay in office to request an extension, the same will be said about him.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-mays-government-chicken-has-bottled-brexit-boris-johnson/
  • Foxy said:

    It is the Black Knight strategy. The Holy Grail is the political parable of our times...

    https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs
    It is, isn't it? :D
  • Sorry. I am just trying to get into the mood of the moment, where black is white, good is bad, etc....
    Clarity is good.

    All MPs for the government party need to be able to implement the government's number one policy. If they can't then we need an election and the new government's majority should be able to do so. No point the government keeping MPs [however long standing] who won't implement its policies.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    When BoZo's OODA loop of calling an election is scuppered by prorogation, how are the cultists going to spin that as Cummings genius?
  • Exactly.

    What is the Brexit Party play here?

    Boris wont commit to ‘no deal’ at all costs so their only option is to stand.

    Their supporters on Twitter want a pact where the Tories stand aside in Northern Leave seats. It’s not going to happen.
    I am not privy to any of this but it would seem to me that a certain small number of leave/labour seats would be offered. As I have said for quite some time, it would be essentially a coupon election with candidates endorsed under a common banner. The problem for the remain bloc is there is little possibility of unity as neither of the larger parties (or SNP in Scotland) would consent to losing such a large potential proportion of seats to their rivals in opposition whereas the BXP have nothing to lose electorally and plenty to gain.

  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited September 2019

    1 Most voters have never heard of the FTPA - they think the PM calls elections

    2 If there is an election Johnson will get the praise/blame for bringing it about

    3 Elections called unexpectedly early do not usually go well for governments - 2017, Feb 1974, 1970 and 1951 come to mind. Even Oct 1974 produced a much lower Labour majority than was expected at the start of the campaign. 1966 is the only exception

    4 Johnson is in a uniquely weak position, vulnerable to attacks from right and left, his party is imploding and it is not at all clear that it is any fit state to fight the ground war that is crucial in marginal contests.
    1955 - almost 18 months early - govt increased majority
    1983 - a year early - govt landslide
    1987 - a year early - govt landslide
    2001 - a year early - govt landslide
    2005 - a year early - govt majority ca 60
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited September 2019
    eek said:

    So the next election will be:-

    BXP - leave europe now (without a deal)
    Tory - leave europe now (with a deal if europe blinks (and they won't) so without a deal)
    Labour - renegotiate and a second referendum
    Lib Dems - revoke
    SNP revoke

    Suddenly the Labour policy everyone has hated for a year is starting to look sane... Corbyn really is a lucky general.

    Corbyn's superpower is supporting policies that look crazy at the time but which everyone agrees with 10-15 years later. Trying to find the middle ground on Brexit may well be part of that pattern.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Don't think you are right about Nicola, the party will stay ultra-loyal to her whatever. There is no plausible alternative leader, for one thing. And I still think she is torn about a referendum - the whole argument about being careful about what you wish for.

    I also think you may be under-estimating "referendum fatigue" up here.
    The party is absolutely not loyal to Sturgeon no matter what. About 20% would declare UDI if given the chance. And that includes MPs and MSPs, not just membership.
  • isam said:

    but in general working class people quite like an eccentric posho

    Just imagine if someone had written that in the Graun, Paul Embery would have a tweet prolapse.
  • Scott_P said:

    When BoZo's OODA loop of calling an election is scuppered by prorogation, how are the cultists going to spin that as Cummings genius?

    They’ll blame Nikki Da Costa.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    There’s clearly a debate going on in Labour, but Corbyn seems more keen than his Shadow Ministers. I guess we’ll find out during and after PMQs when Corbyn and Milne speak.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Because its achieved they outcome they (Boris and Cummings wanted)

    At any point from Boris becoming leader to yesterday's vote they could have dialled back the rhetoric and started compromise.

    Instead they ratched it up and even had Cummings berating the Remainer delegation when they went to meet Boris yesterday.

    Given then way they have played this you have to fink its gone entirely to as expected and to plan - which makes it a success if not a victory?

    Just because a crazy plan "works" does not make it brilliant. Boris has neutered his party and handed control of his politcal destiny to Corbyn. That is not brilliant, it is a massive gamble.

    It might be ballsy, but it is not genius.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317

    They don't like Jeremy Corbyn.

    It is true, though, that there has always been a strong tradition of deference within the working class - hence the working class Tory vote. Alf Garnett would love JRM.

    So would Del Boy
  • TOPPING said:

    Sounds like a suspiciously Corbyn-type search for purity, even if, or maybe preferably in opposition.
    Yes, so it's over to the electorate. Do they prefer the Brexit-cult-like purity of the Conservative Party, the Jeremy-cult-like purity of the Labour Party, the Bollocks-to-Brexit-cult-like purity of the Liberal Democrats, the more-cult-like-than-thou-Brexit-cult-like purity of the Brexit Party, the Petty-Nationalism-cult-like purity of the Naitonalist Parties, the Global-Warming-Doomsday-cult-like purity of the Green Party (Hi! That's me!) or... something else?

    Time for Jury Team to give it another go?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    They’ll blame Nikki Da Costa.

    Should have a sweepstake on which of the Brain Trust gets publicly sacrificed first
This discussion has been closed.