politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?
Comments
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I like how Boris is saying these guys will be voting with Jeremy Corbyn despite himself voting with Jeremy Corbyn twice??0
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Wtf was that?0
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The speaker has certainly pushed the boundaries, I do not know enough about the details to know how much justification he had. All this can be avoided though, if the executives go back to arguing and winning their battles in parliament. If they cannot, then they should request a GE.Alanbrooke said:
Yes I could question that, equally I could question the wisdom of the Speaker tearing up the rules. Neither side is exercising any judgement so we are simply in a political cage fight, The rules are there are no rules,noneoftheabove said:
Why not question the judgement of the PM for putting judges in the shit position of having to make a divisive and unnecessary ruling?Alanbrooke said:
I do have to question the judgement of the judiciary in getting involved in this, we;ll end uo with elected judgesAlastairMeeks said:0 -
IndeedBenpointer said:Wtf was that?
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Well that was a nothing speech. Maybe Johnson really is another May.0
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Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
Bottler Boris bottles the battle?0
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To be serious (why?), it's an office that really chews up the holders. Look at Blair when he entered in 1997, and when he left in 2007. It looks as though he's aged far more than ten years. The same with Major, and to a lesser extent Cameron.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, perhaps he should retire?
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He's tee'd up calling an election later this week.
'I really don't want an election, but if MPs tomorrow and Wednesday make my position untenable..'0 -
Awful. Possibly his Brown / May "crap, we have been lumbered with a useless PM" moment....0
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A speech from the May podium school of "I've not really said anything helpful here".0
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So the BBC is expecting an election on October 14 - a Monday?0
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Johnson’s comments merely confirm what is blindingly obvious: there will be an election and it will be held in mid October.1
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Doesn’t. He’ll have to resign.Andrew said:Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
It is not treachery but it is a usurpation of power that completely defenestrates the executive. That has major ramifications for the electorate holding people to account. Especially when this is a move that does not correlate with traditional party lines.Noo said:
Taking power from the executive and vesting it in parliament is by no definition treachery.Byronic said:
The word traitor is much overused. Especially in Brexit. But that vile document deserves the word. It is the only word. They are traitors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Either you want Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.Byronic said:
It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.TheScreamingEagles said:Calm down everybody
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718
It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.0 -
Weak
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Will he? Corbyn said earlier that he'd support an election under any circumstances.Gallowgate said:
Doesn’t. He’ll have to resign.Andrew said:Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
With what words?KentRising said:He's tee'd up calling an election later this week.
'I really don't want an election, but if MPs tomorrow and Wednesday make my position untenable..'0 -
Perhaps. He certainly wasn't talking to us geeks.KentRising said:He's tee'd up calling an election later this week.
'I really don't want an election, but if MPs tomorrow and Wednesday make my position untenable..'0 -
Well he said he won’t request an extension under any circumstance but if the PM is legally compelled to he’ll have to resign.RobD said:
Will he? Corbyn said earlier that he'd support an election under any circumstances.Gallowgate said:
Doesn’t. He’ll have to resign.Andrew said:Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
That he would never request another extension.Benpointer said:
With what words?KentRising said:He's tee'd up calling an election later this week.
'I really don't want an election, but if MPs tomorrow and Wednesday make my position untenable..'0 -
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Gosh the Benn letter has got some reactionaries bow ties swirling! I can feel the breeze from here!
But the question is - what does the Toxic Clown do?
Exciting or what.0 -
According to Mr Johnson the chances for No Deal were one in a million three weeks ago, and that since then the chances for a deal had notably increased.
Well, that's a relief.0 -
He'd call an election instead...Gallowgate said:
Well he said he won’t request an extension under any circumstance but if the PM is legally compelled to he’ll have to resign.RobD said:
Will he? Corbyn said earlier that he'd support an election under any circumstances.Gallowgate said:
Doesn’t. He’ll have to resign.Andrew said:Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
Do you know what the word "defenestrates" means? I hope so.Gabs2 said:
It is not treachery but it is a usurpation of power that completely defenestrates the executive.Noo said:
Taking power from the executive and vesting it in parliament is by no definition treachery.Byronic said:
The word traitor is much overused. Especially in Brexit. But that vile document deserves the word. It is the only word. They are traitors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Either you want Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.Byronic said:
It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.TheScreamingEagles said:Calm down everybody
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718
It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.0 -
I can see Brexit very easily ending in civil strife now. Tragic.0
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Calm yourself down. Referring to parliamentary democracy as treachery is not a good look. We have free and fair elections, in which you are free to stand, campaign and vote.MarqueeMark said:
It is when the bulk of that Parliament is in thrall to Brussels.
You're angry about something and exaggerating. Calm yourself down.0 -
What a wet fart of a speech that was.0
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During the leadership election Tory posters thought Rory Stewart was continuity May and I argued it was Johnson. Events are proving me right, failure to debate, failure to lead, failure to build consensus, if losing the debate throw toys out of pram. Quick polling honeymoon for both, followed by disappointing election result leading to further paralysis.tlg86 said:Boris is a pound shop Theresa May.
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I think we can almost take it as read that the Govt will lose tomorrow so I assume this speech tees up a GE ?0
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It was utter waffle. There was more balderdash then you'd get in a landslide.Gallowgate said:God this is a vacuous speech.
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Agreednoneoftheabove said:
The speaker has certainly pushed the boundaries, I do not know enough about the details to know how much justification he had. All this can be avoided though, if the executives go back to arguing and winning their battles in parliament. If they cannot, then they should request a GE.Alanbrooke said:
Yes I could question that, equally I could question the wisdom of the Speaker tearing up the rules. Neither side is exercising any judgement so we are simply in a political cage fight, The rules are there are no rules,noneoftheabove said:
Why not question the judgement of the PM for putting judges in the shit position of having to make a divisive and unnecessary ruling?Alanbrooke said:
I do have to question the judgement of the judiciary in getting involved in this, we;ll end uo with elected judgesAlastairMeeks said:0 -
At least lectern use has increased since the referendum. Clearly a growth market.0
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It wasn't even eloquent - he bumbled over "get it done" twice in the last sentence.0
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Philip Hammond?kinabalu said:Gosh the Benn letter has got some reactionaries bow ties swirling! I can feel the breeze from here!
But the question is - what does the Toxic Clown do?
Exciting or what.0 -
5 minutes of your life just gone for no reasonBenpointer said:Wtf was that?
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Yes.Pulpstar said:I think we can almost take it as read that the Govt will lose tomorrow so I assume this speech tees up a GE ?
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Is there any doubt of that? I know rebels in Labour for Brexit and Tories against Brexit have always tended to disappoint, but this is pretty much the last chance for the anti- no dealers, and it barely takes any to see the government lose.williamglenn said:0 -
A Monday general election?williamglenn said:0 -
He can’t call an election. We’ve been through this.RobD said:
He'd call an election instead...Gallowgate said:
Well he said he won’t request an extension under any circumstance but if the PM is legally compelled to he’ll have to resign.RobD said:
Will he? Corbyn said earlier that he'd support an election under any circumstances.Gallowgate said:
Doesn’t. He’ll have to resign.Andrew said:Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
And it's all the Brexiteers' fault. And they're the ones threatening violence now, as we've seen on here passim.Byronic said:I can see Brexit very easily ending in civil strife now. Tragic.
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If Corbyn will agree to it under any circumstances, he can.Gallowgate said:
He can’t call an election. We’ve been through this.RobD said:
He'd call an election instead...Gallowgate said:
Well he said he won’t request an extension under any circumstance but if the PM is legally compelled to he’ll have to resign.RobD said:
Will he? Corbyn said earlier that he'd support an election under any circumstances.Gallowgate said:
Doesn’t. He’ll have to resign.Andrew said:Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
He inherited a minority Govt.Jonathan said:Weak
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I sincerely hope he gets to head a majority Govt.0 -
Can't disagree with that.Alanbrooke said:
5 minutes of your life just gone for no reasonBenpointer said:Wtf was that?
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El_Capitano said:
It wasn't even eloquent - he bumbled over "get it done" twice in the last sentence.
Has he been on the gin maybe?0 -
We’ll see.RobD said:
If Corbyn will agree to it under any circumstances, he can.Gallowgate said:
He can’t call an election. We’ve been through this.RobD said:
He'd call an election instead...Gallowgate said:
Well he said he won’t request an extension under any circumstance but if the PM is legally compelled to he’ll have to resign.RobD said:
Will he? Corbyn said earlier that he'd support an election under any circumstances.Gallowgate said:
Doesn’t. He’ll have to resign.Andrew said:Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
DrFoxy was talking there being violence on here the other day too. So it is not only Brexiteers predicting it, though they and he dispute their predictions are also tacit endorsements of it happening.JosiasJessop said:
And it's all the Brexiteers' fault. And they're the ones threatening violence now, as we've seen on here passim.Byronic said:I can see Brexit very easily ending in civil strife now. Tragic.
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Did it taste 200 times better than a £50 bottle, or 500 times better than a £20 bottle.Byronic said:
Hah! OK let’s play wine snob top trumps.TOPPING said:
I am such a pleb which is why I come to PB to gain enlightenment. £5,000 bottle of wine? Hardly an owner-served ampoule of Penfolds Block 42 now, is it?Byronic said:
You’re SUCH a pleb. Of course a wine bath is a thing. I had my first, about 15 years ago, here:TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?
https://en.caudalie.com/spas-boutiques
At the end of my trip the owner, Mathilde, asked me to share a £5000 bottle of Bordeaux from a nearby winery. Hard times, they were. Hard.
I was once handed a nearly full bottle of Mouton Rothschild 1945. The person handing it to me said “do you want to finish this? We opened a few last night for granny’s birthday but I’ve had enough”.
The person giving it to me was a Rothschild. The bottle was worth, even then, about £10,000.
If you can beat that I shall pay you my respects and retire hurt: and drive to Sparta to buy some (cheaper) wine.0 -
How is he going to do that? He’s just told us he doesn’t want an election.MarqueeMark said:
He inherited a minority Govt.Jonathan said:Weak
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I sincerely hope he gets to head a majority Govt.0 -
I think I spoke too soon. Another few speeches like that and he will be polling where Theresa May was. Next election would then be a four way split between Labour, Lib Dem, Con and Brex.kle4 said:
If he does that I'll thank him...although BXP would not have arisen as so potent a force had Boris and co not spent a year pissing on a deal that they then accepted was Brexit after all. Even a majority of the ERG did.kyf_100 said:
And there you have it.GIN1138 said:
Con 62 Seat Majority (biggest Con majority since 1987) - that would get the job done.MarqueeMark said:
That'll do!AndyJS said:Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.
For all the negative thread headers we've had on BoJo destroying the Conservative Party, etc, it's worth remembering that in the last days of Theresa May Electoral Calculus had a Con/BXP coalition as most likely outcome. Quite possibly with BXP as the senior partner if the trend continued.
Not only has Boris saved the Tories, if as rcs1000 says his plan all along has been to seek a majority then pass something that looks like the WA+lipstick, Boris will have actually saved us from a hard brexit - which would've been a certainty in a BXP/Con coalition.
No idea who would come out on top, but a Con/Brex coalition would be a worse outcome for the country than a Tory government.0 -
If it's like this now, what happens if Brexit disrupts the poor dears' medication?Noo said:
Calm yourself down. Referring to parliamentary democracy as treachery is not a good look. We have free and fair elections, in which you are free to stand, campaign and vote.MarqueeMark said:
It is when the bulk of that Parliament is in thrall to Brussels.
You're angry about something and exaggerating. Calm yourself down.0 -
Hmm, you obviously aren't on social media ("string up the queen") or seeing who's been protesting on the streets over the past few days.JosiasJessop said:
And it's all the Brexiteers' fault. And they're the ones threatening violence now, as we've seen on here passim.Byronic said:I can see Brexit very easily ending in civil strife now. Tragic.
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It certainly isn't as clear cut as you make out.Gallowgate said:
We’ll see.RobD said:
If Corbyn will agree to it under any circumstances, he can.Gallowgate said:
He can’t call an election. We’ve been through this.RobD said:
He'd call an election instead...Gallowgate said:
Well he said he won’t request an extension under any circumstance but if the PM is legally compelled to he’ll have to resign.RobD said:
Will he? Corbyn said earlier that he'd support an election under any circumstances.Gallowgate said:
Doesn’t. He’ll have to resign.Andrew said:Only important bit of all that: Johnson doubling down, won't ask for an extension under any circumstance.
Guarantees an election.0 -
NEW THREAD
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No, it was 40 years of Europhile lies, evasions and duplicities which got us here. If they’d offered just one of the 483 referendums they promised (then denied) we would not be in this nightmare. But they didn’t, so we are.JosiasJessop said:
And it's all the Brexiteers' fault. And they're the ones threatening violence now, as we've seen on here passim.Byronic said:I can see Brexit very easily ending in civil strife now. Tragic.
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I don't see it on VanillaTheScreamingEagles said:NEW THREAD
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Why? Party loyalty or something more?MarqueeMark said:
He inherited a minority Govt.Jonathan said:Weak
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I sincerely hope he gets to head a majority Govt.0 -
“Nothing has changed”
(Except, maybe, the very clear, on the record “I will not ask for an extension”.. which like “Oct 31 do or die” would be a massive hostage to fortune if he didn’t have every intention of sticking to it. It certainly sounds like he’d sooner - politically - die rather than not do it.)0 -
What happens if the Rebels get their bill passed but then 2/3rds of MPs refuse to back an early election?0
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Time was PMs would make such statements to the HoC.AlastairMeeks said:At least lectern use has increased since the referendum. Clearly a growth market.
Then again he's not letting the HoC meet much is he?0 -
TWS it is on top of airmiles and 5 star hotels, makes them feel important.twistedfirestopper3 said:
I've never spent more than a tenner on a bottle of wine. I doubt I have ever drunk anything much more than a 30 quid bottle in my life. Is wine the new Air Miles on PB?Byronic said:
Hah! OK let’s play wine snob top trumps.TOPPING said:
I am such a pleb which is why I come to PB to gain enlightenment. £5,000 bottle of wine? Hardly an owner-served ampoule of Penfolds Block 42 now, is it?Byronic said:
You’re SUCH a pleb. Of course a wine bath is a thing. I had my first, about 15 years ago, here:TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?
https://en.caudalie.com/spas-boutiques
At the end of my trip the owner, Mathilde, asked me to share a £5000 bottle of Bordeaux from a nearby winery. Hard times, they were. Hard.
I was once handed a nearly full bottle of Mouton Rothschild 1945. The person handing it to me said “do you want to finish this? We opened a few last night for granny’s birthday but I’ve had enough”.
The person giving it to me was a Rothschild. The bottle was worth, even then, about £10,000.
If you can beat that I shall pay you my respects and retire hurt: and drive to Sparta to buy some (cheaper) wine.0 -
The traitors are those who are willing to trash the UK economy in a desperate attempt to meet a deadline imposed on us, against the UK PM and parliaments wishes, by a mardy French president!Byronic said:
The word traitor is much overused. Especially in Brexit. But that vile document deserves the word. It is the only word. They are traitors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Either you want Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.Byronic said:
It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.TheScreamingEagles said:Calm down everybody
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718
It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.0 -
A poll by the anti Brexit Conservative Group for Europe and even they give the Tories more than Labour, the SNP, Plaid and the Greens combined with the DUP or LDs having the balance of power.Nigel_Foremain said:
Surprise surprise. What a bummer for HYUFD et al. Boris not making a blind bit of difference over his super-competent predecessor! What a bunch of over confident twats! So they have another election, it is a hung parliament. What then Mr Cummy-Biscuit?williamglenn said:
Multilevel regression. It's the same kind of polling that accurately predicted results like Labour winning Canterbury in 2017.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
In the last days of May by contrast the Tories were often third behind the Labour and Brexit Parties and sometimes even the LDs too0 -
Yeah, it's a shame they voted themselves a six week holiday in the run up to this crisis, isn't it?Benpointer said:
Time was PMs would make such statements to the HoC.AlastairMeeks said:At least lectern use has increased since the referendum. Clearly a growth market.
Then again he's not letting the HoC meet much is he?0 -
Don't you know Boris just pretends to be stupid? Underneath it all there's a razor-sharp intellect.kyf_100 said:
I think I spoke too soon. Another few speeches like that and he will be polling where Theresa May was. Next election would then be a four way split between Labour, Lib Dem, Con and Brex.kle4 said:
If he does that I'll thank him...although BXP would not have arisen as so potent a force had Boris and co not spent a year pissing on a deal that they then accepted was Brexit after all. Even a majority of the ERG did.kyf_100 said:
And there you have it.GIN1138 said:
Con 62 Seat Majority (biggest Con majority since 1987) - that would get the job done.MarqueeMark said:
That'll do!AndyJS said:Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.
For all the negative thread headers we've had on BoJo destroying the Conservative Party, etc, it's worth remembering that in the last days of Theresa May Electoral Calculus had a Con/BXP coalition as most likely outcome. Quite possibly with BXP as the senior partner if the trend continued.
Not only has Boris saved the Tories, if as rcs1000 says his plan all along has been to seek a majority then pass something that looks like the WA+lipstick, Boris will have actually saved us from a hard brexit - which would've been a certainty in a BXP/Con coalition.
No idea who would come out on top, but a Con/Brex coalition would be a worse outcome for the country than a Tory government.0 -
PS.. it would be highly amusing if the Commons refused to call an election, leaving him to follow its instructions or quit, presumably in favour of Gove or someone.
(Edit: I see this is a repeat.. sorry!)0 -
Casino_Royale said:
What happens if the Rebels get their bill passed but then 2/3rds of MPs refuse to back an early election?
Boris executes the will of Parliament or resigns.Casino_Royale said:What happens if the Rebels get their bill passed but then 2/3rds of MPs refuse to back an early election?
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If you destroy people's belief in democracy what do you expect? Blame those on both sides who have blocked Brexit for their own reasons. At some point the contract between the people and the political classes breaks.JosiasJessop said:
And it's all the Brexiteers' fault. And they're the ones threatening violence now, as we've seen on here passim.Byronic said:I can see Brexit very easily ending in civil strife now. Tragic.
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Didn't see it. Was the Toxic Clown a bit transparent and vacuous?
And if he was which one won out?
Was it the transparency or was it the vacuity?0 -
Even wine experts can only do a little bit better than 50/50 guessing when comparing a £50 or £10 bottle of wine in blind tasting.malcolmg said:
Did it taste 200 times better than a £50 bottle, or 500 times better than a £20 bottle.Byronic said:
Hah! OK let’s play wine snob top trumps.TOPPING said:
I am such a pleb which is why I come to PB to gain enlightenment. £5,000 bottle of wine? Hardly an owner-served ampoule of Penfolds Block 42 now, is it?Byronic said:
You’re SUCH a pleb. Of course a wine bath is a thing. I had my first, about 15 years ago, here:TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?
https://en.caudalie.com/spas-boutiques
At the end of my trip the owner, Mathilde, asked me to share a £5000 bottle of Bordeaux from a nearby winery. Hard times, they were. Hard.
I was once handed a nearly full bottle of Mouton Rothschild 1945. The person handing it to me said “do you want to finish this? We opened a few last night for granny’s birthday but I’ve had enough”.
The person giving it to me was a Rothschild. The bottle was worth, even then, about £10,000.
If you can beat that I shall pay you my respects and retire hurt: and drive to Sparta to buy some (cheaper) wine.0 -
Inevitable when the political classes think they know better than the electorate.Byronic said:I can see Brexit very easily ending in civil strife now. Tragic.
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It is a fantasy GIN, silly Tories wetting their pants yet again.GIN1138 said:
Con 62 Seat Majority (biggest Con majority since 1987) - that would get the job done.MarqueeMark said:
That'll do!AndyJS said:Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.0 -
When did people vote for a no-deal Brexit?Richard_Tyndall said:
If you destroy people's belief in democracy what do you expect? Blame those on both sides who have blocked Brexit for their own reasons. At some point the contract between the people and the political classes breaks.JosiasJessop said:
And it's all the Brexiteers' fault. And they're the ones threatening violence now, as we've seen on here passim.Byronic said:I can see Brexit very easily ending in civil strife now. Tragic.
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it is always possible to leave earlier, if a deal is agreed.RobD said:
So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.KentRising said:Disgraceful surrender.
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/11685646451976806410 -
Wheras in 2017 at the starting gunHYUFD said:
A poll by the anti Brexit Conservative Group for Europe and even they give the Tories more than Labour, the SNP, Plaid and the Greens combined with the DUP or LDs having the balance of power.Nigel_Foremain said:
Surprise surprise. What a bummer for HYUFD et al. Boris not making a blind bit of difference over his super-competent predecessor! What a bunch of over confident twats! So they have another election, it is a hung parliament. What then Mr Cummy-Biscuit?williamglenn said:
Multilevel regression. It's the same kind of polling that accurately predicted results like Labour winning Canterbury in 2017.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
In the last days of May by contrast the Tories were often third behind the Labour and Brexit Parties and sometimes even the LDs too0