politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?
Comments
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Yes. They pour a lot of wine. In your glass, and in your bath.TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?0 -
It's pretty certain now that we're heading for a General Election. October 10th looks a good bet.
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.
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A bathful of wine* would definitely take the edge off.TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?
*see: butt of malmsey...0 -
It'd be the correct strategy (I note Blair implicity agrees with this analysis).GIN1138 said:
Cabinet meeting at 5pm but wouldn't think there will be an annoucement today (i guess its possible there might be an annoucement tomorrow)Pulpstar said:Are we going to get a GE ?
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
Is something being announced at 5 today ?
Corbyn seems well up for it..
Think they will wait until MPs legislate to take No Deal off the table on Wednesday and then they can properly frame the election as Parliament Vs the People.
May last time round was scuppered by poor execution and poor tactics. But her strategy was correct.
Corbyn's ratings are dire, Johnson has already been scraping the barnacles off the hull (HS2 etc) - the Tories simply need to put a soft focus sunlit uplands manifesto out and I reckon that should be enough to tonk Labour at least.1 -
Betting Post
Free Money most seats Con 2/5 Betway, Lab 4/1UniBet and 2 others.
DYOR If Swinson/Farage are biggest party your big red0 -
If i were a tory deselected MP i would stand again as remain tory or in a marginal seat the tories wished to gain or retain! Johnson/cummings can be stopped. The parachute payment could pay fro the remain intervention in a marginal seat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Remember several of those likely deselections are not standing including Clarke, Bebb, Letwin, Boles, HarringtonChris said:
That is very useful to know, in judging the likely consequences of Johnson's deselection threat - which in the event of a general election sound likely to be the splitting of the former Tory vote in a number of seats.NickPalmer said:
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.MarqueeMark said:Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
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BXP will only agree to a ceasefire if Alexander Johnson only promises a "Clean Break" Brexit.williamglenn said:
If Johnson gets into an election campaign promising HYUFD's formulation of "deal or no deal" there are endless opportunities for him to look shifty when up against the clarity of Nigel Farage's straightforward No Deal.AlastairMeeks said:
Isabel Oakeshott (Richard Tice's girlfriend) also gives abundant insight into the thinking of the Brexit hierarchy.Richard_Nabavi said:I'd recommend perusing the Nigel Farage's Twitter pages. You'll find plenty of evidence that the BXP is not going to be standing aside to let Boris have a free run. Quite the opposite, he's setting up to portray Boris as a traitor for having the temerity even to contemplate an orderly exit. For example:
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1167024094115770368
There are lots of other examples.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1168508977900150785
It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
Another point: what makes people think that many Labour MPs will vote for a GE. Corbyn might, but taht's not the same thing. Also why should Tory traditionalists ?
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Someone on the radio described it in game theory terms.Gallowgate said:
The delusion is strong.Scott_P said:
One "classic" game theory scenario is a game of chicken. Your best strategy to win is to unscrew the steering wheel and let your opponent see you fling it out of the window,
Two big problems though:
1. Even if Johnson can put Parliament out of the game, he still in fact has the steering wheel in his game of chicken with Parliament. They may still think HE will flinch. So Johnson isn't actually unscrewing the steering wheel as he still has control over it.
2. The scenario crucially depends on both participants in the game of chicken having similar vehicles. If your opponent is in a juggernaut and you're in a Reliant Robin, your opponent may just shrug, plough into you and continue down the road.0 -
It all depends how the Lib Dems play it.tottenhamWC said:
Also it might need to be more than 40 gains. There are a reasonable number of Con held London / South East commuter belt seats "in play" now; even somewhere like Remain voting Woking (Con MP forever) is potentially vulnerable to the Lib Dems now, as the recent Euro elections suggested.Casino_Royale said:
Where are those 40 gains from Labour coming from?DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
If they go all Quinoa and sandals, they will lose. If they argue they are truly the non-radical small c conservative choice, they could pull off a lot of surprises.0 -
It’s very hard to assess. I expect the government to do all it can to minimise the effects in the immediate days. But there are lots of dependencies and unknown factors. For instance, if there were a virulent flu outbreak and a shortage of vaccines with consequent pressures on the NHS, how could one prove that the death of someone not admitted to hospital because of a shortage of beds was due to No Deal etc?Chris said:
This is quite an important question, though. If we leave without a deal, how much chaos will there be - how many people will die as a result, and so on.Cyclefree said:
5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at0 -
Sounds fantastic. Although sounds like a bit of a waste of wine.Casino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
Sounds fantastic; somewhat of a waste of wine though. Although, TBH, some Bulgarian wine is only marginally worth drinking.Casino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.0 -
Jackie Doyle-Price has 3 consecutive wins by a total of 973 votes. Bonus point to anyone who knows the equivalent(ish) MP on the Labour side (3 wins by a total of 2,232).isam said:
There’ll always be Thurrock!Tissue_Price said:
Indeed it would. I appreciate this isn't the point here, but where can they actually win? Maybe Northern Labour seats and possibly Buckingham?AlastairMeeks said:It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
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https://unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken/SirNorfolkPassmore said:Someone on the radio described it in game theory terms.
One "classic" game theory scenario is a game of chicken. Your best strategy to win is to unscrew the steering wheel and let your opponent see you fling it out of the window,
Two big problems though:
1. Even if Johnson can put Parliament out of the game, he still in fact has the steering wheel in his game of chicken with Parliament. They may still think HE will flinch. So Johnson isn't actually unscrewing the steering wheel as he still has control over it.
2. The scenario crucially depends on both participants in the game of chicken having similar vehicles. If your opponent is in a juggernaut and you're in a Reliant Robin, your opponent may just shrug, plough into you and continue down the road.0 -
By the way, the Brexit Party will NOT stand aside. Cummings loathes them and it's mutual.0
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Thank goodness everyone is focussing on the question of what is a wine bath and not examining @Casino_Royale's punctuation about the next stage.0
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If they had an election on 10th October would the Queens Speech on 14th still apply or would it be delayed?0
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No it doesn't, especially if the new parliament doesn't have a Tory PMMysticrose said:A new Parliament after a General Election on October 10th means it's pointless.
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As mentioned earlier any deselected MPs will probably stand as Independents in order to keep their pay off. So you will be able to vote for them if you wish.gettingbetter said:I see that my MP is one of the 22. As a party member (and a leave voter in 2016, which now looks to have been a mistake, but I had assumed there would be a sensible transition) I would be appalled if they try to deselect my MP whom I like. Don't we get a chance to vote to keep them?
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This I agree with, if you know you are going to lose, you try to avoid having the vote, or you remove the importance of the vote. I imagine they will give themselves one more night to change minds, but tomorrow morning would be a sensible time to announce it.Mysticrose said:
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.0 -
They are looking for scapegoats to blame when they have to admit to their gullible following that whatever monumental fuckup we end up with was not their fault.Gallowgate said:
The delusion is strong.Scott_P said:0 -
Paul Farrelly in Newcastle-under-Lyme.Tissue_Price said:
Jackie Doyle-Price has 3 consecutive wins by a total of 973 votes. Bonus point to anyone who knows the equivalent(ish) MP on the Labour side (3 wins by a total of 2,232).isam said:
There’ll always be Thurrock!Tissue_Price said:
Indeed it would. I appreciate this isn't the point here, but where can they actually win? Maybe Northern Labour seats and possibly Buckingham?AlastairMeeks said:It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
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Sorry, folks, about the duplication.OldKingCole said:
Sounds fantastic. Although sounds like a bit of a waste of wine.Casino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
Sounds fantastic; somewhat of a waste of wine though. Although, TBH, some Bulgarian wine is only marginally worth drinking.Casino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.0 -
Undemocratic coups obviously still need a bit of explaining.gettingbetter said:I see that my MP is one of the 22. As a party member (and a leave voter in 2016, which now looks to have been a mistake, but I had assumed there would be a sensible transition) I would be appalled if they try to deselect my MP whom I like. Don't we get a chance to vote to keep them?
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It's possible that Darth Cummings is playing a blinder and that BoZo will achieve everything his heart desires, and more, but it still seems for the moment that the cunning strategy relies on people that hate them doing exactly what they want at every step of the process0
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Would you care to frame a bet on how many gains you think they will makeFlanner said:Theuniondivvie said:A 15% swing from [SLD} o the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.0 -
So not really any basis for saying, as you did, that it would be "nothing like as bad as feared"?Cyclefree said:
It’s very hard to assess. I expect the government to do all it can to minimise the effects in the immediate days. But there are lots of dependencies and unknown factors. For instance, if there were a virulent flu outbreak and a shortage of vaccines with consequent pressures on the NHS, how could one prove that the death of someone not admitted to hospital because of a shortage of beds was due to No Deal etc?Chris said:
This is quite an important question, though. If we leave without a deal, how much chaos will there be - how many people will die as a result, and so on.Cyclefree said:
5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
Obviously I don't know either, but based on the evidence of relatively minor causes producing quite major disruption, I find it plausible that it could be complete chaos.0 -
Laying Swinson and Farage "Next PM" on Betfair is another way to achieve this, you can chuck in Ken Clarke too (I think that idea and him in particular has flown off) to pump up the odds.bigjohnowls said:Betting Post
Free Money most seats Con 2/5 Betway, Lab 4/1UniBet and 2 others.
DYOR If Swinson/Farage are biggest party your big red0 -
BXP standing aside definitely changes the dynamic.DavidL said:
I could see the Tory vote down to roughly 35% but Labour down to 25% with the Lib Dems and TBP picking up the slack. That should be enough for the Tories to win a majority (just). If TBP stand aside its easier.FF43 said:
What is different about this election from previous ones is that there is essentially no movement between Labour and Conservative voters on current polling. To win seats, the Conservatives need Labour voters in marginals to switch to Lib Dem because they hate the Tories so much and in doing so let the Conservative candidate through by mistake.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
Tories will definitely lose a number of seats to SNP and LDs. We can also assume Labour won't gain any seats. Conservative prospects for more than making up their losses are entirely dependent on Labour marginals and former Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. Unless BXP stands aside or the polling starts indicating direct Labour to Conservative switches.0 -
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Personally I think Farage is a far superior political strategist and has a far better understanding of EU politics, which is why he was able to anticipate the extension well in advance, and immediately knew that Johnson was laying a trap for himself.Mysticrose said:By the way, the Brexit Party will NOT stand aside. Cummings loathes them and it's mutual.
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All of those on the list confirmed they are leaving the HOC before this rowThe_Taxman said:
If i were a tory deselected MP i would stand again as remain tory or in a marginal seat the tories wished to gain or retain! Johnson/cummings can be stopped. The parachute payment could pay fro the remain intervention in a marginal seat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Remember several of those likely deselections are not standing including Clarke, Bebb, Letwin, Boles, HarringtonChris said:
That is very useful to know, in judging the likely consequences of Johnson's deselection threat - which in the event of a general election sound likely to be the splitting of the former Tory vote in a number of seats.NickPalmer said:
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.MarqueeMark said:Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
As for the rest it makes sense too stand as independent and they could retain theiir seat0 -
Er, well if it's not a Tory PM, whoever is PM will just extend, revoke anyway (assuming Farage isn't PMScott_P said:
No it doesn't, especially if the new parliament doesn't have a Tory PMMysticrose said:A new Parliament after a General Election on October 10th means it's pointless.
)
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The other problem with this is that the No Deal moment isn't the end of the game. After the initial collision, they're still in the juggernaut which keeps backing up and running you over again, you're still in the reliant robbin, and at this point lots of other people in the reliant robin can grab the wheel. (I'm not sure how that works logistically with a Reliant Robbin, maybe if it has some Clown Car technology.)SirNorfolkPassmore said:
2. The scenario crucially depends on both participants in the game of chicken having similar vehicles. If your opponent is in a juggernaut and you're in a Reliant Robin, your opponent may just shrug, plough into you and continue down the road.0 -
Its RubbishDavidL said:
I'd heard a rumour that Christine Jardine wasn't standing again. Have you heard anything like that?Theuniondivvie said:
I'm sure the LDs will be as gracious losers as they are winners.DavidL said:
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.malcolmg said:
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.Noo said:
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice.malcolmg said:
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them.
I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
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I've had wine.AlastairMeeks said:Thank goodness everyone is focussing on the question of what is a wine bath and not examining @Casino_Royale's punctuation about the next stage.
About to go and have some more over dinner too.0 -
Enjoy!Casino_Royale said:
I've had wine.AlastairMeeks said:Thank goodness everyone is focussing on the question of what is a wine bath and not examining @Casino_Royale's punctuation about the next stage.
About to go and have some more over dinner too.0 -
WE also do not like unprincipled lying toerags who would sell their soul at the drop of a cash box or fancy carFlanner said:Theuniondivvie said:A 15% swing from [SLD} o the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.0 -
Which is why deselection won't happen. It would be enough to lose the CINO Party the seat. If you shave off the personal following, and shave off a few more for BXPers it may well be enough to hand the seat to Labour or LDs. these things are often more complicated than right wing headbangers think (eg Brexit itself!)Xtrain said:
As mentioned earlier any deselected MPs will probably stand as Independents in order to keep their pay off. So you will be able to vote for them if you wish.gettingbetter said:I see that my MP is one of the 22. As a party member (and a leave voter in 2016, which now looks to have been a mistake, but I had assumed there would be a sensible transition) I would be appalled if they try to deselect my MP whom I like. Don't we get a chance to vote to keep them?
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I think that there is a strong likelihood that people are going to form a view that Johnston is far too wild and unstable - as well as being untrustworthy - to be given such power. It reflects so badly on Tory MPs that they chose to put him forward to the membership.0
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You’re SUCH a pleb. Of course a wine bath is a thing. I had my first, about 15 years ago, here:TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?
https://en.caudalie.com/spas-boutiques
At the end of my trip the owner, Mathilde, asked me to share a £5000 bottle of Bordeaux from a nearby winery. Hard times, they were. Hard.0 -
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Corrected that for you.CarlottaVance said:Post Boris Con ?
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thick as mince as wellSirNorfolkPassmore said:
I'd say that's very unlikely. Split last time was LD 34, SNP 29, Con 22, Lab 15. So unionist parties with 71% of the vote. Christine Jardine is also a fairly formidable character.DavidL said:
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.malcolmg said:
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.Noo said:
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice.malcolmg said:
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them.
I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.0 -
Lib Dems , if they are sensible, will bang on about Remain this time. Locally, the tone will be more nuanced.Casino_Royale said:
It all depends how the Lib Dems play it.tottenhamWC said:
Also it might need to be more than 40 gains. There are a reasonable number of Con held London / South East commuter belt seats "in play" now; even somewhere like Remain voting Woking (Con MP forever) is potentially vulnerable to the Lib Dems now, as the recent Euro elections suggested.Casino_Royale said:
Where are those 40 gains from Labour coming from?DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
If they go all Quinoa and sandals, they will lose. If they argue they are truly the non-radical small c conservative choice, they could pull off a lot of surprises.
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What about the Brexit party though? Surely they'll do quite a bit better than UKIP in 2017.Pulpstar said:
It'd be the correct strategy (I note Blair implicity agrees with this analysis).GIN1138 said:
Cabinet meeting at 5pm but wouldn't think there will be an annoucement today (i guess its possible there might be an annoucement tomorrow)Pulpstar said:Are we going to get a GE ?
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
Is something being announced at 5 today ?
Corbyn seems well up for it..
Think they will wait until MPs legislate to take No Deal off the table on Wednesday and then they can properly frame the election as Parliament Vs the People.
May last time round was scuppered by poor execution and poor tactics. But her strategy was correct.
Corbyn's ratings are dire, Johnson has already been scraping the barnacles off the hull (HS2 etc) - the Tories simply need to put a soft focus sunlit uplands manifesto out and I reckon that should be enough to tonk Labour at least.
I think if the next GE is soon, it's very very hard to predict given the potential for tactical voting. I like lab most seats at 5.5 on Betfair.0 -
With wine spa, I just cannot get past the thought that it would be a good euphemism for Donald Trump in Moscow.AlastairMeeks said:Thank goodness everyone is focussing on the question of what is a wine bath and not examining @Casino_Royale's punctuation about the next stage.
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... but he’s up against Corbyn.justin124 said:I think that there is a strong likelihood that people are going to form a view that Johnston is far too wild and unstable - as well as being untrustworthy - to be given such power. It reflects so badly on Tory MPs that they chose to put him forward to the membership.
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He has Johnson just where he wants him. Johnson can't commit to No Deal, so he will already mark himself down as a future traitor to the cause.Gallowgate said:0 -
A secret plan to win the war, worked for NixonScott_P said:
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Steward's enquiry as TSE wins againTheScreamingEagles said:
Paul Farrelly in Newcastle-under-Lyme.Tissue_Price said:
Jackie Doyle-Price has 3 consecutive wins by a total of 973 votes. Bonus point to anyone who knows the equivalent(ish) MP on the Labour side (3 wins by a total of 2,232).isam said:
There’ll always be Thurrock!Tissue_Price said:
Indeed it would. I appreciate this isn't the point here, but where can they actually win? Maybe Northern Labour seats and possibly Buckingham?AlastairMeeks said:It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
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sounds like a real waste of wine to meCasino_Royale said:
Yes. They pour a lot of wine. In your glass, and in your bath.TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?0 -
With that much wine sloshing around I’m surprised he cares about the next stage, let alone its punctuation.AlastairMeeks said:Thank goodness everyone is focussing on the question of what is a wine bath and not examining @Casino_Royale's punctuation about the next stage.
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They are frit but how Corbyn turns it down with the SNP backing it and after all he has saidScott_P said:0 -
Anyone would think Lab MPs think they're going to lose the election?Scott_P said: 0 -
On a rather frenzied day, calm reflection may conclude that the sentiment is actually true; Boris wants a deal and knows that other ways of getting one have failed. By and large his critics neither want a deal nor to crash out (except the Brexit Party). To be battling on against Labour, SNP, Brexit, the LDs and the entire remain establishment is to say the least valiant. Maybe I'm a minority of one, but I think Boris wants a deal, his critics on both wings don't and being where we are (partly Boris's fault but he's not alone) his tactic is the best available of a bad bunch.Pro_Rata said:0 -
You know as well as anyone that this is no obstacle in politics. In fact, it's a positive advantage sometimes. See also: Hair, Thompson.malcolmg said:
thick as mince as wellSirNorfolkPassmore said:
I'd say that's very unlikely. Split last time was LD 34, SNP 29, Con 22, Lab 15. So unionist parties with 71% of the vote. Christine Jardine is also a fairly formidable character.DavidL said:
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.malcolmg said:
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.Noo said:
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice.malcolmg said:
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them.
I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.0 -
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So you think the same about Labour MPs who put an anti-Semite - Corbyn - into the ballot?justin124 said:I think that there is a strong likelihood that people are going to form a view that Johnston is far too wild and unstable - as well as being untrustworthy - to be given such power. It reflects so badly on Tory MPs that they chose to put him forward to the membership.
Both main parties are utterly borken. Whether they are irretrievably borken remains to be seen.0 -
BBC suggesting that earliest day for an election would be Friday 11th October on the basis of a Dissolution this Friday.Mysticrose said:It's pretty certain now that we're heading for a General Election. October 10th looks a good bet.
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.0 -
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Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.Gallowgate said:0 -
Corbyn will, quite understandably, tell them to grow a pair. Don’t they believe in the Jezziah, who can nearly win any election???AlastairMeeks said:1 -
Andrew Neil is not God. Yes, it is true that no Parliament can bind a future Parliament. But it does not mean all laws passed just disappear. The next Parliament can amend it or even have it deleted.Mysticrose said:It's pretty certain now that we're heading for a General Election. October 10th looks a good bet.
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.
If a Parliament cannot bind a future one, how come we are still talking about the FTPA.
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I am such a pleb which is why I come to PB to gain enlightenment. £5,000 bottle of wine? Hardly an owner-served ampoule of Penfolds Block 42 now, is it?Byronic said:
You’re SUCH a pleb. Of course a wine bath is a thing. I had my first, about 15 years ago, here:TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?
https://en.caudalie.com/spas-boutiques
At the end of my trip the owner, Mathilde, asked me to share a £5000 bottle of Bordeaux from a nearby winery. Hard times, they were. Hard.0 -
So plausibly Corbyn says "Yay election, I'm in" but 1/3 of MPs say "Ban No Deal first" and the early election motion falls, then everybody goes into the recess still yelling at each other.
On balance I think this helps Boris's messaging but who knows.
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Come back later and debate with Byronic on level terms.Casino_Royale said:
I've had wine.AlastairMeeks said:Thank goodness everyone is focussing on the question of what is a wine bath and not examining @Casino_Royale's punctuation about the next stage.
About to go and have some more over dinner too.0 -
They may decide to sit on their hands regardless of what Corbyn wants - indeed a few did so in 2017.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Unless he had drained Casino Royale's bath beforehandNigelb said:0 -
That's because you thought the point of Brexit was about leaving the EU, whereas to him it was about destroying the EU.isam said:Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.
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Indeed. I will be watching the polls carefully when it comes to voting as i will be for a hung parliament. I stilll think it is wrong the govt. Is using 100m of tax payer cash to advertise no deal given strategy of no deal ge. If i was an opposition MP I would focus where that money for party propoganda could be better spent i.e. nhs, over 75 free licience fees or tv etc...Big_G_NorthWales said:
All of those on the list confirmed they are leaving the HOC before this rowThe_Taxman said:
If i were a tory deselected MP i would stand again as remain tory or in a marginal seat the tories wished to gain or retain! Johnson/cummings can be stopped. The parachute payment could pay fro the remain intervention in a marginal seat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Remember several of those likely deselections are not standing including Clarke, Bebb, Letwin, Boles, HarringtonChris said:
That is very useful to know, in judging the likely consequences of Johnson's deselection threat - which in the event of a general election sound likely to be the splitting of the former Tory vote in a number of seats.NickPalmer said:
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.MarqueeMark said:Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
As for the rest it makes sense too stand as independent and they could retain theiir seat0 -
Legislation binds a future Parliament - until it is repealed.surbiton19 said:
Andrew Neil is not God. Yes, it is true that no Parliament can bind a future Parliament. But it does not mean all laws passed just disappear. The next Parliament can amend it or even have it deleted.Mysticrose said:It's pretty certain now that we're heading for a General Election. October 10th looks a good bet.
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.
If a Parliament cannot bind a future one, how come we are still talking about the FTPA.0 -
Boris: Do you want an election?AlastairMeeks said:
Jezza: Yes. In November, after an extension of the leaving date to Jan 2020.
They would fight about no you didn't yes I did for years.
In the meantime there wouldn't be an election.0 -
No basis at all. I’m not being Pollyanna-ish. Personally I fear that it could be quite bad. But the reason for saying what I did is that the government will be desperate to make the first few days look ok until press interest dies down so that they can run a “Project Fear overdone (again) story”.Chris said:
So not really any basis for saying, as you did, that it would be "nothing like as bad as feared"?Cyclefree said:
It’s very hard to assess. I expect the government to do all it can to minimise the effects in the immediate days. But there are lots of dependencies and unknown factors. For instance, if there were a virulent flu outbreak and a shortage of vaccines with consequent pressures on the NHS, how could one prove that the death of someone not admitted to hospital because of a shortage of beds was due to No Deal etc?Chris said:
This is quite an important question, though. If we leave without a deal, how much chaos will there be - how many people will die as a result, and so on.Cyclefree said:
5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
Obviously I don't know either, but based on the evidence of relatively minor causes producing quite major disruption, I find it plausible that it could be complete chaos.
My concern is more for what happens in the days, weeks, months afterwards. I gave an example over the weekend of one particular example in my industry.
But you may very well be right and it could be worse. We are in butterfly-chaos territory here, aren’t we? Certainly, doctors and food retailers are concerned and I’d trust what they say more than the government.0 -
Labour has been doing horribly in by-elections (-10% thus far) according to Harry's analysis - with Corbyn's dire ratings I think it's possible for Johnson to secure a decent victory even if the Brexit Party score ~ 13% or so.rkrkrk said:
What about the Brexit party though? Surely they'll do quite a bit better than UKIP in 2017.Pulpstar said:
It'd be the correct strategy (I note Blair implicity agrees with this analysis).GIN1138 said:
Cabinet meeting at 5pm but wouldn't think there will be an annoucement today (i guess its possible there might be an annoucement tomorrow)Pulpstar said:Are we going to get a GE ?
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
Is something being announced at 5 today ?
Corbyn seems well up for it..
Think they will wait until MPs legislate to take No Deal off the table on Wednesday and then they can properly frame the election as Parliament Vs the People.
May last time round was scuppered by poor execution and poor tactics. But her strategy was correct.
Corbyn's ratings are dire, Johnson has already been scraping the barnacles off the hull (HS2 etc) - the Tories simply need to put a soft focus sunlit uplands manifesto out and I reckon that should be enough to tonk Labour at least.
I think if the next GE is soon, it's very very hard to predict given the potential for tactical voting. I like lab most seats at 5.5 on Betfair.
Johnson is very fortunate that BXP didn't win Peterborough, I think Corbyn's victory there could ultimately prove serendipitous for him.0 -
The more the stakes are raised, the more likely it is that GE2017 Labour voters in Labour-held constituencies will vote Labour again. Johnson is taking a huge gamble IMO.FF43 said:
BXP standing aside definitely changes the dynamic.DavidL said:
I could see the Tory vote down to roughly 35% but Labour down to 25% with the Lib Dems and TBP picking up the slack. That should be enough for the Tories to win a majority (just). If TBP stand aside its easier.FF43 said:
What is different about this election from previous ones is that there is essentially no movement between Labour and Conservative voters on current polling. To win seats, the Conservatives need Labour voters in marginals to switch to Lib Dem because they hate the Tories so much and in doing so let the Conservative candidate through by mistake.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
Tories will definitely lose a number of seats to SNP and LDs. We can also assume Labour won't gain any seats. Conservative prospects for more than making up their losses are entirely dependent on Labour marginals and former Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. Unless BXP stands aside or the polling starts indicating direct Labour to Conservative switches.0 -
Nigel would probably have accepted EEA in 2016 but like everyone he's got more extreme through this tortuous process...isam said:
Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.Gallowgate said:0 -
There's every chance there won't be an election.TOPPING said:
Boris: Do you want an election?AlastairMeeks said:
Jezza: Yes. In November, after an extension of the leaving date to Jan 2020.
They would fight about no you didn't yes I did for years.
In the meantime there wouldn't be an election.0 -
Just noticed that Cummings's Wiki entry says he "sexually identifies as a Wendigo". I guess he didn't put it on there himself!
Interesting that he is one of those political figures who seems famous for being famous. He claims the "credit" for "winning" the referendum, but in reality he seems to have never done a real job, other than some venture in Russia (interesting connection there!). He is now advisor for a PM who has never done a proper job. Birds of a feather an all that!0 -
Quite frankly, if it comes to either being a 'pleb' or sharing your views and lifestyle (and indeed, that of SeanT), then please call me a pleb.Byronic said:
You’re SUCH a pleb. Of course a wine bath is a thing. I had my first, about 15 years ago, here:TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?
https://en.caudalie.com/spas-boutiques
At the end of my trip the owner, Mathilde, asked me to share a £5000 bottle of Bordeaux from a nearby winery. Hard times, they were. Hard.0 -
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Yes, as I said earlier, it’s testament to the doggedness of Remainers that not having left, three years after the vote to leave, is seen as shrug of the shoulders-worthy rather than for the outrageous state of affairs that it is. Everyone’s a doublin’ down now.GIN1138 said:
Nigel would probably have accepted EEA in 2016 but like everyone he's got more extreme through this tortuous process...isam said:
Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.Gallowgate said:1 -
I voted tory in 2017. I will vote LD or Labour to protect the pro- EU Labour MP. It will depend on the polls.SouthamObserver said:
The more the stakes are raised, the more likely it is that GE2017 Labour voters in Labour-held constituencies will vote Labour again. Johnson is taking a huge gamble IMO.FF43 said:
BXP standing aside definitely changes the dynamic.DavidL said:
I could see the Tory vote down to roughly 35% but Labour down to 25% with the Lib Dems and TBP picking up the slack. That should be enough for the Tories to win a majority (just). If TBP stand aside its easier.FF43 said:
What is different about this election from previous ones is that there is essentially no movement between Labour and Conservative voters on current polling. To win seats, the Conservatives need Labour voters in marginals to switch to Lib Dem because they hate the Tories so much and in doing so let the Conservative candidate through by mistake.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
Tories will definitely lose a number of seats to SNP and LDs. We can also assume Labour won't gain any seats. Conservative prospects for more than making up their losses are entirely dependent on Labour marginals and former Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. Unless BXP stands aside or the polling starts indicating direct Labour to Conservative switches.0 -
As I said upthread Malc, some Bulgarian wine isn't the best you'll ever try. Some, however, is excellent.malcolmg said:
sounds like a real waste of wine to meCasino_Royale said:
Yes. They pour a lot of wine. In your glass, and in your bath.TOPPING said:
a) tmiCasino_Royale said:I am very relaxed.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
b) a wine bath is a thing?0 -
We would be here all day if we were comparing numpties for sure.Noo said:
You know as well as anyone that this is no obstacle in politics. In fact, it's a positive advantage sometimes. See also: Hair, Thompson.malcolmg said:
thick as mince as wellSirNorfolkPassmore said:
I'd say that's very unlikely. Split last time was LD 34, SNP 29, Con 22, Lab 15. So unionist parties with 71% of the vote. Christine Jardine is also a fairly formidable character.DavidL said:
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.malcolmg said:
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.Noo said:
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice.malcolmg said:
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them.
I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.0 -
I'm not sure it's that - rather that they want to ensure the election doesn't somehow fall after Oct 31st ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are frit but how Corbyn turns it down with the SNP backing it and after all he has saidScott_P said:
And presumably they trust Corbyn on this point not massively more than Johnson.0 -
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Hah. Nothing probably tempted him more than Blair railing against the idea on the radio this morning.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Flanner's away to lump on LDs most seats in Scotland (slightly shorter than Labour I see with Smarkets, whoever they are). He'll be back shortly to top up with us I'm sure.malcolmg said:
Would you care to frame a bet on how many gains you think they will makeFlanner said:Theuniondivvie said:A 15% swing from [SLD} o the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.0 -
