politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?
Comments
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Wouldn’t it be fun if after yet another GE we still end up with a hung Parliament?3
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It is however quite a bit more Remainy than Uxbridge, larger majority nothwithstanding...Tissue_Price said:
Ooh, I could apply for that. It's where I grew up. I'm not sure the members would vote for me over BJ, though.mr-claypole said:
Some rumours heard at the weekend Boris will be dropped into Beckenham replacing Bob Stewart who will be off to the Lordsnoneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
You win the 2019 Ydoethur pun award.Benpointer said:
If that includes Christmas holidays, would that be a Santa clause?TheScreamingEagles said:I’ve contacted Phil Hammond and a few other anti No Dealers asking them to include in their anti No Deal legislation a clause banning OGH from taking foreign holidays.
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No please noCyclefree said:Wouldn’t it be fun if after yet another GE we still end up with a hung Parliament?
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That would be ... kharmic.noneoftheabove said:So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.
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Isn't that the most likely outcome?Cyclefree said:Wouldn’t it be fun if after yet another GE we still end up with a hung Parliament?
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A hung parliament is very likely imo. Both in party terms and Brexit resolution terms. Which is why Brexiteers best chances of Brexit have always been a 2nd referendum or voting for the deal, neither of which they are willing to do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No please noCyclefree said:Wouldn’t it be fun if after yet another GE we still end up with a hung Parliament?
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Tories 6/5 and shortening....TOPPING said:
What five years hence?HYUFD said:
Temporarily as he would win a landslide at the next general election maybeTOPPING said:
So he would be happy out of power as the Leavers would be united behind him?HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
If Brexit voters are stupid enough not to give a majority to Boris now, then Brexit will most probably never happen, and they will richly deserve it!Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1168508977900150785mr-claypole said:Very interested to see what Farage does in the event of an election coming into view this week. Stand down the Brexit party is obviously the best way to get a government back that are likely to implement some sort of brexit.
Or go for it split the blue vote and have a lucrative career as the brexit prince over the water for another 20 years.
Don't hold your breath.0 -
Not extend under any circumstances whatsoeverGallowgate said:
What would you do then?HYUFD said:
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Under Ed Miliband Slab lost all but 1 of their seats in 2015StuartDickson said:
SLab at 35% Scon at 25% SLD at 20% SNP at 15%.Jonathan said:If Ed Milliband had won we would be sharing pictures of our free owls now. LoO Osborne would be having fun at the EdStones expenses. Boris Johnson would be about to debut on Strictly. Farage would be a witness in the trial of once presidential hopeful Trump.
Ed Miliband, saviour of the Union.0 -
I mean, in the event that Corbyn is in Downing Street. What would you do?HYUFD said:
Not extend under any circumstances whatsoeverGallowgate said:
What would you do then?HYUFD said:
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Certainly amending the FTPA to remove the PM's power to postpone the election date for as long as s/he wanted would be one of the simpler things the sane majority in the Commons could do.Scott_P said:
Brexit may be Cameron's legacy, but the FTPA is Clegg's.0 -
Remainers completely paranoid.Scott_P said:
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He is honouring the outcome of the referendum. Which let us not forget ALL parties agreed to honour.Tabman said:
That would be ... kharmic.noneoftheabove said:So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.
Article 50 was triggered by Parliament with an overwhelming majority.
Both are awkward facts for remain fanatics...0 -
Huh? Con Maj is 13/8. And not shortening.basicbridge said:
Tories 6/5 and shortening....TOPPING said:
What five years hence?HYUFD said:
Temporarily as he would win a landslide at the next general election maybeTOPPING said:
So he would be happy out of power as the Leavers would be united behind him?HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
Usually no. For example the volcano ash business hit during the 2010 campaign and all sorts of things needed to be done. However if everyone is sane and you notify the opposition via the usual channels no one argues with emergency activity.Cyclefree said:Scott_P said:
Wouldn’t the purdah rules make it very difficult for the government to take the necessary action to deal with any problems? So they could face a No Deal exit, some sort of crisis, an inability to deal with it properly, said crisis getting worse and having a disastrous effect on the Tories’ electoral chances. It might even lead to the Tories getting No Deal but losing the election.Scott_P said:
Is that really what Boris wants?
However you do have a point that it might look a bit different if the crisis is Brexit. Do you want to tell the opposition what all the issues are? If you did then they’d surely use them against you, but if you don’t then you might find some limits on what you can do. There again that’s probably only by convention and we’ve chucked all of them now haven’t we?0 -
Get some professional help. Please.HYUFD said:
Not extend under any circumstances whatsoeverGallowgate said:
What would you do then?HYUFD said:
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Corbyn won't get to Downing Street without forcing Boris to extend again, which he won't and getting Swinson's support, which she won't giveGallowgate said:
I mean, in the event that Corbyn is in Downing Street. What would you do?HYUFD said:
Not extend under any circumstances whatsoeverGallowgate said:
What would you do then?HYUFD said:
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.0
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You perhaps missed my epic description of Byronic’s highfalutin, bibulous Mediterranean musings as ‘wine dark prose’.TheScreamingEagles said:
You win the 2019 Ydoethur pun award.Benpointer said:
If that includes Christmas holidays, would that be a Santa clause?TheScreamingEagles said:I’ve contacted Phil Hammond and a few other anti No Dealers asking them to include in their anti No Deal legislation a clause banning OGH from taking foreign holidays.
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That’s not what I asked.HYUFD said:
Corbyn won't get to Downing Street without forcing Boris to extend again, which he won't and getting Swinson's support, which she won't giveGallowgate said:
I mean, in the event that Corbyn is in Downing Street. What would you do?HYUFD said:
Not extend under any circumstances whatsoeverGallowgate said:
What would you do then?HYUFD said:
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Another hung parliament would almost certainly be the end of Brexit. A hung parliament will never agree a deal or no deal, therefore remain will become the default outcome. Very hard to see why Johnson is rushing into an election - his chances of gaining a majority for no deal are slim.noneoftheabove said:
A hung parliament is very likely imo. Both in party terms and Brexit resolution terms. Which is why Brexiteers best chances of Brexit have always been a 2nd referendum or voting for the deal, neither of which they are willing to do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No please noCyclefree said:Wouldn’t it be fun if after yet another GE we still end up with a hung Parliament?
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Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.0 -
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.0 -
Hes dead right. We should not extend.Chris said:
Get some professional help. Please.HYUFD said:
Not extend under any circumstances whatsoeverGallowgate said:
What would you do then?HYUFD said:
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
The fact that we are discussing this is not an indictment on BJ, his advisers and his Premiership. It is an indictment of the mess he inherited from chicken s##t Theresa May who threw away a more than 20 point lead in the polls, was too chicken to face the public in the election, too chicken to go to the debates then when facing the biggest humiliation in the Commons in the modern era was too chicken to make this a matter of confidence.
Johnson is doing exactly what May should have done but was too much of a coward to do.0 -
I think this is a big tactical mistake from Bluekip. By acting so recklessly and unconstitionally they are making it very easy for those who have switched preference from Lab to LD to vote Lab in Lab-Tory marginals, whilst simulaenously depressing Tory turnout amongst remain/anti no deal Tories in LD/Tory marginals.Paristonda said:
Why would those 2017 Labour Remainers vote LD? Its not a seat the LDs expect to win and every remainer there knows its the PMs own seat, Labour would campaign hard there, so tactical voting would likely squeeze LD vote even further (although given the vote is non-existent there it probably can't go much further down). The Lib Lab split is being overdone. Push comes to shove anyone wanting to stop no deal will hold a peg over their nose and vote for whichever is best placed to stop the tories in a pre brexit GE. No-one will believe that Labour can get a majority so people will be less scared of Corbyn.HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote
However I don't think it will be enough for Labour to take the seat.0 -
Wrong....StuartDickson said:
Huh? Con Maj is 13/8. And not shortening.basicbridge said:
Tories 6/5 and shortening....TOPPING said:
What five years hence?HYUFD said:
Temporarily as he would win a landslide at the next general election maybeTOPPING said:
So he would be happy out of power as the Leavers would be united behind him?HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority0 -
The comment is right, 100% right, that you're too ignorant to figure it out says more about you than the comment.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
We are now in the fourth year since we voted to Leave, we are well in the third year of the two year Article 50 period. Enough is enough.0 -
Cashed out for loss on my lay of Oct 19 general election0
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That sounds like the kind of coalition of chaos I could endorse.Jonathan said:If Ed Milliband had won we would be sharing pictures of our free owls now. LoO Osborne would be having fun at the EdStones expenses. Boris Johnson would be about to debut on Strictly. Farage would be a witness in the trial of once presidential hopeful Trump.
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In your opinion.Philip_Thompson said:
The comment is right, 100% right, that you're too ignorant to figure it out says more about you than the comment.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
We are now in the fourth year since we voted to Leave, we are well in the third year of the two year Article 50 period. Enough is enough.0 -
If discussing cowardice, we should remember May became prime minister because Boris ran away at the first whiff of grapeshot.Philip_Thompson said:The fact that we are discussing this is not an indictment on BJ, his advisers and his Premiership. It is an indictment of the mess he inherited from chicken s##t Theresa May who threw away a more than 20 point lead in the polls, was too chicken to face the public in the election, too chicken to go to the debates then when facing the biggest humiliation in the Commons in the modern era was too chicken to make this a matter of confidence.
Johnson is doing exactly what May should have done but was too much of a coward to do.0 -
Awkward facts, as i said.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.0 -
Dammit, I did it the wrong way round - I'm still exposed on First to Happen - Brexit/General Election?JBriskinindyref2 said:Cashed out for loss on my lay of Oct 19 general election
Do I just have to take the hit?0 -
They are awkward facts for the Labour Party, and for the PM and other ERG-style Conservatives who went through the lobbies with Labour. They are not awkward facts for the the SNP or the LibDems (who voted against Article 50), nor for the sensible Conservatives who supported the referendum, agreed to implement its result by voting for Article 50, and who voted three times for an orderly exit on March 29th.basicbridge said:
He is honouring the outcome of the referendum. Which let us not forget ALL parties agreed to honour.Tabman said:
That would be ... kharmic.noneoftheabove said:So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.
Article 50 was triggered by Parliament with an overwhelming majority.
Both are awkward facts for remain fanatics...0 -
Why bother?basicbridge said:
Awkward facts, as i said.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.0 -
Boris has played a blinder and none the numpties realise it......0
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Actually, it's the Conservatives who've ben trying to get a deal. Theresa May wouldn't listen to any of parliament's ideas. No consultation, no votes on negotiating position. Then begging opponents to back a deal based on a negotiating position they always disagreed with.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
Blame Theresa May all you like. Parliament is doing its job.
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The volcano ash business was an Act of God. Very different from something arising as a direct consequence of government policy which is itself the reason for the GE.ab195 said:
Usually no. For example the volcano ash business hit during the 2010 campaign and all sorts of things needed to be done. However if everyone is sane and you notify the opposition via the usual channels no one argues with emergency activity.Cyclefree said:Scott_P said:
Wouldn’t the purdah rules make it very difficult for the government to take the necessary action to deal with any problems? So they could face a No Deal exit, some sort of crisis, an inability to deal with it properly, said crisis getting worse and having a disastrous effect on the Tories’ electoral chances. It might even lead to the Tories getting No Deal but losing the election.Scott_P said:
Is that really what Boris wants?
However you do have a point that it might look a bit different if the crisis is Brexit. Do you want to tell the opposition what all the issues are? If you did then they’d surely use them against you, but if you don’t then you might find some limits on what you can do. There again that’s probably only by convention and we’ve chucked all of them now haven’t we?
But imagine if it is a life-threatening emergency. Or if some emergency legislation is needed. What then?0 -
He hasn’t actually done anything yet.basicbridge said:Boris has played a blinder and none the numpties realise it......
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He bought a puppyGallowgate said:He hasn’t actually done anything yet.
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Both sides seem convinced they are about to win a GE. So it probably does need testing. I can't quite see where 40 gains for the Tories from Labour come from to be honest - care to suggest a few? Even the likes of Canterbury won't be easy.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Tories under attack from SNP, grevious attack from Lib Dems, and even seats like SW Herts which could be Gauke/Tories/Brexit all on the leave side, usually a safe seat but anything could happen this time.0 -
NOM 8/11 and shortening.basicbridge said:Boris has played a blinder and none the numpties realise it......
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I stand corrected!Scott_P said:
He bought a puppyGallowgate said:He hasn’t actually done anything yet.
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That would be the justification for sorting out a long-term extension first, then.Scott_P said:0 -
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Lab to win most seats value at 5.5? I think so. All we need is a few tighter polls and that should come in...0
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If Johnson expels from the party any hardline Remainers then that should be sufficient to show he is serious about Brexit.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1168508977900150785mr-claypole said:Very interested to see what Farage does in the event of an election coming into view this week. Stand down the Brexit party is obviously the best way to get a government back that are likely to implement some sort of brexit.
Or go for it split the blue vote and have a lucrative career as the brexit prince over the water for another 20 years.
Don't hold your breath.0 -
That and the decimation of the Liberal Democrat party.Chris said:
Certainly amending the FTPA to remove the PM's power to postpone the election date for as long as s/he wanted would be one of the simpler things the sane majority in the Commons could do.Scott_P said:
Brexit may be Cameron's legacy, but the FTPA is Clegg's.
(yes, yes, yes, I know, one in ten etc. etc.)0 -
Still more than May did ... 📆Gallowgate said:
He hasn’t actually done anything yet.basicbridge said:Boris has played a blinder and none the numpties realise it......
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Various facts are wrong:basicbridge said:
Awkward facts, as i said.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.
Fact 1: Article 50 was not triggered until 29 March 2017. Two and a half not three years ago.
Fact 2: the deal which was negotiated was first put to Parliament in December, first voted on in January 2019, with the third vote occurring on 29 March 2019.
So the period during which Parliament failed to agree a deal was 4 months. If you include the subsequent indicative votes that just adds a further 2 months.
The period during which Parliament has had time to consider and vote on any sort of deal has, in reality, been a quite short concentrated period. Not over three years at all.2 -
Even buying a puppy might come to look stupid if there is a bust-up with the cats.Scott_P said:
He bought a puppyGallowgate said:He hasn’t actually done anything yet.
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Philip_Thompson said:
But that's not what Farage has demanded.Scott_P said:
If Johnson expels from the party any hardline Remainers then that should be sufficient to show he is serious about Brexit.
"Commit TOTALLY to No Deal", said Britain's most unsuccessful Parliamentary election organiser to Johnson ever last week, "Or I'll put 650 candidates up against you".
So either Farage admits he was posturing - or loses his deposit in the overwhelming majority of those 650 seats and hands practically all the others over to the opposition. Remember: EVERY election since the Euros that Brexit have stood in has resulted in Labour or the LDs winning a seat they'd have lost without Farage's help.0 -
I have money on the cat. Larry looks vicious.DecrepitJohnL said:
Even buying a puppy might come to look stupid if there is a bust-up with the cats.Scott_P said:
He bought a puppyGallowgate said:He hasn’t actually done anything yet.
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The vote to leave the EU was made in June 2016 more than 3 years ago.Cyclefree said:
Various facts are wrong:basicbridge said:
Awkward facts, as i said.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.
Fact 1: Article 50 was not triggered until 29 March 2017. Two and a half not three years ago.
Fact 2: the deal which was negotiated was first put to Parliament in December, first voted in January 2019, with the third vote occurring on 29 March 2019.
So the period during which Parliament failed to agree a deal was 4 months. If you include the subsequent indicative votes that just adds a further 2 months.
The period during which Parliament has had time to consider and vote on any sort of deal has, in reality, been a quite short concentrated period. Not over three years at all.
The fact that Parliament didn't have relatively that long to debate May's finalised deal didn't mean that Parliament had no time to debate Brexit in that period.
Parliament still hasn't come up with a proposal it can unite behind more than three years after Brexit. Except one - no deal was set as our legal default when we triggered Article 50. That made me think our MPs would accept any deal as better than no deal, but I was wrong.0 -
I don’t understand the pun in the header.
Is it rumoured that Geo Osborne gave Boris a blow job?0 -
A bro job.Byronic said:I don’t understand the pun in the header.
Is it rumoured that Geo Osborne gave Boris a blow job?0 -
Farage is one man. An influential man, but just one man. Cameron won a majority while Farage was running against him even though he was a Remainer.Flanner said:
But that's not what Farage has demanded.Philip_Thompson said:
If Johnson expels from the party any hardline Remainers then that should be sufficient to show he is serious about Brexit.
"Commit TOTALLY to No Deal", said Britain's most unsuccessful Parliamentary election organiser to Johnson ever last week, "Or I'll put 650 candidates up against you".
So either Farage admits he was posturing - or loses his deposit in the overwhelming majority of those 650 seats and hands practically all the others over to the opposition. Remember: EVERY election since the Euros that Brexit have stood in has resulted in Labour or the LDs winning a seat they'd have lost without Farage's help.
If the election campaign is triggered by Parliament blocking Brexit, by those blocking Brexit being expelled from the party by Boris . . . then even if Farage runs MPs I would expect the vast bulk of Brexiteers to back the government to finish the job.0 -
The swing to win Labour's 40 most vulnerable seats is 3.61%, considerably less than what current polling is showing. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour#UKParliamenttpfkar said:
Both sides seem convinced they are about to win a GE. So it probably does need testing. I can't quite see where 40 gains for the Tories from Labour come from to be honest - care to suggest a few? Even the likes of Canterbury won't be easy.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Tories under attack from SNP, grevious attack from Lib Dems, and even seats like SW Herts which could be Gauke/Tories/Brexit all on the leave side, usually a safe seat but anything could happen this time.
Of course this time around UNS will probably be as much use as a chocolate tea pot but a lot of these are in the east midlands and I suspect that they will be particularly vulnerable.0 -
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Parliament was completely sidelined until the first meaningful vote in January. Not even nine months ago.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.0 -
Boris is starting to make himself look like an obsessive No Deal nut with this. The nod-and-wink strategy - that it was all a ruse to make the EU waver on the backstop - was okay as far as it went; this smacks of imposing No Deal just because Boris is miffed with his critics. This can only end with Boris and the Tories' being shackled to the rotting corpse of No Deal. Why do they want to go there?0
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I think Corbyn will go for the confidence route this time .Unlike he did with May.
That will get the 14 days to find a government.
Johnson might have to no confidence himself to get an election.0 -
It's what Winston would have done.SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
0 -
SNP gains making NOM more likelyScott_P said:0 -
Winston would have signed us up to the Euro.MarqueeMark said:
It's what Winston would have done.SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
0 -
Really? So there was no Parliamentary Select Committee on Brexit?OblitusSumMe said:
Parliament was completely sidelined until the first meaningful vote in January. Not even nine months ago.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
What exactly has Hillary Benn been doing if Parliament wasn't debating Brexit until the first meaningful vote?0 -
SNP gains + LibDems gains mean there would be the numbers in parliament for a second referendum?bigjohnowls said:
SNP gains making NOM more likelyScott_P said:0 -
Is it? It is what was done to him. Stanley Baldwin tried to get Winston Churchill deselected.MarqueeMark said:
It's what Winston would have done.SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
0 -
The "Tory Landslide" ers are out again.DavidL said:
The swing to win Labour's 40 most vulnerable seats is 3.61%, considerably less than what current polling is showing. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour#UKParliamenttpfkar said:
Both sides seem convinced they are about to win a GE. So it probably does need testing. I can't quite see where 40 gains for the Tories from Labour come from to be honest - care to suggest a few? Even the likes of Canterbury won't be easy.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Tories under attack from SNP, grevious attack from Lib Dems, and even seats like SW Herts which could be Gauke/Tories/Brexit all on the leave side, usually a safe seat but anything could happen this time.
Of course this time around UNS will probably be as much use as a chocolate tea pot but a lot of these are in the east midlands and I suspect that they will be particularly vulnerable.
Made me a fortune at GE 2017 that attitude0 -
How many statements were there by both the PM and the Brexit Secretary of the day? It seemed interminable.Philip_Thompson said:
Really? So there was no Parliamentary Select Committee on Brexit?OblitusSumMe said:
Parliament was completely sidelined until the first meaningful vote in January. Not even nine months ago.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
What exactly has Hillary Benn been doing if Parliament wasn't debating Brexit until the first meaningful vote?0 -
Boris doesn’t want No Deal. Not unless there is no alternative.Stark_Dawning said:Boris is starting to make himself look like an obsessive No Deal nut with this. The nod-and-wink strategy - that it was all a ruse to make the EU waver on the backstop - was okay as far as it went; this smacks of imposing No Deal just because Boris is miffed with his critics. This can only end with Boris and the Tories' being shackled to the rotting corpse of No Deal. Why do they want to go there?
He wants to get a deal or, failing that, to be forced into an extension, and/or a new election, where he can be on the side of “the people”.
0 -
By George (Canning) - George Canning is the UK's shortest serving PM at 119 days.Byronic said:I don’t understand the pun in the header.
Is it rumoured that Geo Osborne gave Boris a blow job?0 -
so if theyre so short of time, did they cancel their holidays ? Have they stopped the conference season ? Have they said they will work weekends ?Cyclefree said:
Various facts are wrong:basicbridge said:
Awkward facts, as i said.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.
Fact 1: Article 50 was not triggered until 29 March 2017. Two and a half not three years ago.
Fact 2: the deal which was negotiated was first put to Parliament in December, first voted on in January 2019, with the third vote occurring on 29 March 2019.
So the period during which Parliament failed to agree a deal was 4 months. If you include the subsequent indicative votes that just adds a further 2 months.
The period during which Parliament has had time to consider and vote on any sort of deal has, in reality, been a quite short concentrated period. Not over three years at all.
1 -
Select Committees don’t make legislation, as you well know. Select Committees don’t debate. They take evidence, issue reports, question Ministers.Philip_Thompson said:
Really? So there was no Parliamentary Select Committee on Brexit?OblitusSumMe said:
Parliament was completely sidelined until the first meaningful vote in January. Not even nine months ago.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
What exactly has Hillary Benn been doing if Parliament wasn't debating Brexit until the first meaningful vote?
The only period during which Parliament had any role to agree or not a deal was over a 4 month (possibly 6 months, if you want to be generous) period.
Given how important a decision Brexit is, that is far too little. But both May and Johnson have this in common: a wish to sideline Parliament.0 -
Your comment is not supported by the bookies, who tend to be better at these things than you are...bigjohnowls said:
The "Tory Landslide" ers are out again.DavidL said:
The swing to win Labour's 40 most vulnerable seats is 3.61%, considerably less than what current polling is showing. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour#UKParliamenttpfkar said:
Both sides seem convinced they are about to win a GE. So it probably does need testing. I can't quite see where 40 gains for the Tories from Labour come from to be honest - care to suggest a few? Even the likes of Canterbury won't be easy.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Tories under attack from SNP, grevious attack from Lib Dems, and even seats like SW Herts which could be Gauke/Tories/Brexit all on the leave side, usually a safe seat but anything could happen this time.
Of course this time around UNS will probably be as much use as a chocolate tea pot but a lot of these are in the east midlands and I suspect that they will be particularly vulnerable.
Made me a fortune at GE 2017 that attitude0 -
Eight left out of 57 isn't far offEl_Capitano said:
That and the decimation of the Liberal Democrat party.Chris said:
Certainly amending the FTPA to remove the PM's power to postpone the election date for as long as s/he wanted would be one of the simpler things the sane majority in the Commons could do.Scott_P said:
Brexit may be Cameron's legacy, but the FTPA is Clegg's.
(yes, yes, yes, I know, one in ten etc. etc.)0 -
They haven’t been given the chance to cancel the conference season thanks to Boris. They have also indicated they will work weekends yeah.Alanbrooke said:
so if theyre so short of time, did they cancel their holidays ? Have they stopped the conference season ? Have they said they will work weekends ?Cyclefree said:
Various facts are wrong:basicbridge said:
Awkward facts, as i said.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.
Fact 1: Article 50 was not triggered until 29 March 2017. Two and a half not three years ago.
Fact 2: the deal which was negotiated was first put to Parliament in December, first voted on in January 2019, with the third vote occurring on 29 March 2019.
So the period during which Parliament failed to agree a deal was 4 months. If you include the subsequent indicative votes that just adds a further 2 months.
The period during which Parliament has had time to consider and vote on any sort of deal has, in reality, been a quite short concentrated period. Not over three years at all.0 -
I very very much doubt that.Gallowgate said:
Winston would have signed us up to the Euro.MarqueeMark said:
It's what Winston would have done.SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
what is your evidence for this startling suggestion?0 -
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Of the 52% who wanted a form of Brexit, how many were for No Deal?Philip_Thompson said:
Farage is one man. An influential man, but just one man. Cameron won a majority while Farage was running against him even though he was a Remainer.Flanner said:
But that's not what Farage has demanded.Philip_Thompson said:
If Johnson expels from the party any hardline Remainers then that should be sufficient to show he is serious about Brexit.
"Commit TOTALLY to No Deal", said Britain's most unsuccessful Parliamentary election organiser to Johnson ever last week, "Or I'll put 650 candidates up against you".
So either Farage admits he was posturing - or loses his deposit in the overwhelming majority of those 650 seats and hands practically all the others over to the opposition. Remember: EVERY election since the Euros that Brexit have stood in has resulted in Labour or the LDs winning a seat they'd have lost without Farage's help.
If the election campaign is triggered by Parliament blocking Brexit, by those blocking Brexit being expelled from the party by Boris . . . then even if Farage runs MPs I would expect the vast bulk of Brexiteers to back the government to finish the job.0 -
One important factor in an autumn GE is that the usual "students at home" factor will not apply0
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Why on earth should the EU agree to an extension, unless we have a damn good reason to ask for one? Do the Remainers have a suggestion?Scott_P said:0 -
A majority of around 30 is hardly a landside. It will be close.bigjohnowls said:
The "Tory Landslide" ers are out again.DavidL said:
The swing to win Labour's 40 most vulnerable seats is 3.61%, considerably less than what current polling is showing. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour#UKParliamenttpfkar said:
Both sides seem convinced they are about to win a GE. So it probably does need testing. I can't quite see where 40 gains for the Tories from Labour come from to be honest - care to suggest a few? Even the likes of Canterbury won't be easy.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Tories under attack from SNP, grevious attack from Lib Dems, and even seats like SW Herts which could be Gauke/Tories/Brexit all on the leave side, usually a safe seat but anything could happen this time.
Of course this time around UNS will probably be as much use as a chocolate tea pot but a lot of these are in the east midlands and I suspect that they will be particularly vulnerable.
Made me a fortune at GE 2017 that attitude0 -
“In his famous Zurich speech of 1946, Churchill said, ‘We must build a kind of United States of Europe.. The structure of the United States of Europe, if well and truly built, will be such as to make the material strength of a single state less important.. If at first all the States of Europe are not willing or able to join the Union, we must nevertheless proceed to assemble and combine those who will and those who can.’”basicbridge said:
I very very much doubt that.Gallowgate said:
Winston would have signed us up to the Euro.MarqueeMark said:
It's what Winston would have done.SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
what is your evidence for this startling suggestion?
https://eu-rope.ideasoneurope.eu/2013/11/10/winston-churchill-a-founder-of-the-european-union/0 -
Can you get any worse, Farage will never ever even as toilet cleaner be near Downing streetHYUFD said:
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Your points is sophistry. The vote was over three years ago.Cyclefree said:
Various facts are wrong:basicbridge said:
Awkward facts, as i said.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.
Fact 1: Article 50 was not triggered until 29 March 2017. Two and a half not three years ago.
Fact 2: the deal which was negotiated was first put to Parliament in December, first voted on in January 2019, with the third vote occurring on 29 March 2019.
So the period during which Parliament failed to agree a deal was 4 months. If you include the subsequent indicative votes that just adds a further 2 months.
The period during which Parliament has had time to consider and vote on any sort of deal has, in reality, been a quite short concentrated period. Not over three years at all.
Parliament was "debating" Brexit long before the WA was put to it and has been unable to unite around any alternative. There is no majority in Parliament for a deal and so "no deal" is the dafult.
Sorry, but these are facts. Your post smacks of desperation.0 -
Yep, it looks like a huge risk on Boris's part but does he really have a choice? The alternative it to limp along losing authority.tpfkar said:
Both sides seem convinced they are about to win a GE. So it probably does need testing. I can't quite see where 40 gains for the Tories from Labour come from to be honest - care to suggest a few? Even the likes of Canterbury won't be easy.DavidL said:FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Tories under attack from SNP, grevious attack from Lib Dems, and even seats like SW Herts which could be Gauke/Tories/Brexit all on the leave side, usually a safe seat but anything could happen this time.
This way, he either wins (hurrah!) - or doesn't in which case we all know who will be blamed and PM Corbyn will be operating a in a very febrile environment not conducive to a long premiership, with Boris as nailed-on Tory opposition leader seeking to get back into power.0 -
What impact so you think that will have?not_on_fire said:One important factor in an autumn GE is that the usual "students at home" factor will not apply
0 -
After Aprils Fools Day and Haloween, cant we schedule it for New Years Day this time?Scott_P said:0 -
They dont have to wait on BoJo to cancel the conferences, they should be doing it now.Gallowgate said:
They haven’t been given the chance to cancel the conference season thanks to Boris. They have also indicated they will work weekends yeah.Alanbrooke said:
so if theyre so short of time, did they cancel their holidays ? Have they stopped the conference season ? Have they said they will work weekends ?Cyclefree said:
Various facts are wrong:basicbridge said:
Awkward facts, as i said.Gallowgate said:
Not this comment again.basicbridge said:Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.
Fact 1: Article 50 was not triggered until 29 March 2017. Two and a half not three years ago.
Fact 2: the deal which was negotiated was first put to Parliament in December, first voted on in January 2019, with the third vote occurring on 29 March 2019.
So the period during which Parliament failed to agree a deal was 4 months. If you include the subsequent indicative votes that just adds a further 2 months.
The period during which Parliament has had time to consider and vote on any sort of deal has, in reality, been a quite short concentrated period. Not over three years at all.
As for weekends well so you say. I listened to one Tory remainer on R4 last week and it was clear he wasnt really that keen.0 -
Christ. Why lie so obviously? This isn’t GUIDO. This is PB. We know our history, we know that Churchill qualified those remarks by saying Britain would and should stand apart from such a united Europe, because we are different.Gallowgate said:
“In his famous Zurich speech of 1946, Churchill said, ‘We must build a kind of United States of Europe.. The structure of the United States of Europe, if well and truly built, will be such as to make the material strength of a single state less important.. If at first all the States of Europe are not willing or able to join the Union, we must nevertheless proceed to assemble and combine those who will and those who can.’”basicbridge said:
I very very much doubt that.Gallowgate said:
Winston would have signed us up to the Euro.MarqueeMark said:
It's what Winston would have done.SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
what is your evidence for this startling suggestion?
https://eu-rope.ideasoneurope.eu/2013/11/10/winston-churchill-a-founder-of-the-european-union/0 -
All the parties agreed to observe the outcome of the referendum. The referendum result was to leave, therefore we should leave.Tabman said:
I'd put them at about the same mass. Johnson's johnson is probably more fertile though, perhaps bigger than a wardrobe key.Brom said:Not a huge fan of Boris but he's twice the man that lumbering oaf Soames is.
Those are the facts.0
