politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?
This is an interesting market from Ladbrokes, the one that caught my attention was Boris Johnson breaking George Canning’s record as the shortest serving Prime Minister.
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Where is everybody ?0
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If Ed Milliband had won we would be sharing pictures of our free owls now. LoO Osborne would be having fun at the EdStones expenses. Boris Johnson would be about to debut on Strictly. Farage would be a witness in the trial of once presidential hopeful Trump.0
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Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.0
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Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
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Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.0 -
What do mainstream Tory Party MPs think of a wave of expulsions?0
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That would fit in with the rest of the scriptwriting this season, where everything anybody does blows up in their face. Huge Con maj, but Boris loses his seat and Gove gets his job.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
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FPT - If you think a snap GE might be held this week with a very short campaign leading to an election around 12th October (5 weeks later) that results in Boris losing then a new Government rapidly passes a second referendum act inside a week or two, followed by a very short set up and official campaign of about 4 weeks, it's not impossible a second referendum is held before 2020. It would end up with a poll about mid December. Requires EU to extend to year end of course but they almost certainly would for that.
You can currently lay that at 1.03 on Betfair (roughly 40/1) with plenty of money available.0 -
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Not this one.SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
While Grieve and Bebb deserve deselection the rest have mainly voted for brexit and it is hypocrisy in the extreme when ERG and Boris voted against.
I support a GE but not that I think Boris will gain a majority but more the HOC needs refreshing without delay0 -
Surely nothing could be more fitting than for a Churchill to leave the Tory Party over free trade....SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
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Good point, assume he'll be seeking somewhere exceptionally safe.noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
Wonder if Swinson will try and ping into Vince Cable's seat?0 -
I love these betting posts where you can juggle options to achieve the same thing with better odds via an alternative.
However, I got on the Johnson shortest PM at 6-1 which I'm quite happy about it.
I never thought I'd write this, but Jeremy Corbyn is having a very good late summer. He's looking statesmanlike and principled, and he's outsmarted Tony Blair today:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1168476570174054401?s=20
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Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?0 -
Probably wise as last time he went storming off with "we need to prorogue to crush the remainer traitors" only to discover the official line was that it was a perfectly routine action to help the government focus on crime and the NHS and any impact on Brexit was just one of those wild coincidences.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.1 -
Hardly news, but local Tory constituency offices have been told not to issue any statements to the press, or members.0
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A referendum requires 6 months minimum and that’s allowing the question to be refined as the other processes continue. We’ve discussed this before and the details can be found on the electoral commission website from memory.Casino_Royale said:FPT - If you think a snap GE might be held this week with a very short campaign leading to an election around 12th October (5 weeks later) that results in Boris losing then a new Government rapidly passes a second referendum act inside a week or two, followed by a very short set up and official campaign of about 4 weeks, it's not impossible a second referendum is held before 2020. It would end up with a poll about mid December. Requires EU to extend to year end of course but they almost certainly would for that.
You can currently lay that at 1.03 on Betfair (roughly 40/1) with plenty of money available.
I’m on my mobile so can’t find the link sorry0 -
Re point 1 - they will not be the conservative candidate. The candidate will be a brexiteer probably supplied by Farage. It is a mess and very alarmingBenpointer said:Two thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal during a GE anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.0 -
My memory of the previous discussions was that the 6 months is a general recommendation but you can totally do it way faster.eek said:
A referendum requires 6 months minimum and that’s allowing the question to be refined as the other processes continue. We’ve discussed this before and the details can be found on the electoral commission website from memory.Casino_Royale said:FPT - If you think a snap GE might be held this week with a very short campaign leading to an election around 12th October (5 weeks later) that results in Boris losing then a new Government rapidly passes a second referendum act inside a week or two, followed by a very short set up and official campaign of about 4 weeks, it's not impossible a second referendum is held before 2020. It would end up with a poll about mid December. Requires EU to extend to year end of course but they almost certainly would for that.
You can currently lay that at 1.03 on Betfair (roughly 40/1) with plenty of money available.
I’m on my mobile so can’t find the link sorry0 -
@Scott_P 😭0
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Erm - trying to work out the latest polls showing a Boris landslideBenpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?0 -
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
What plausible government is going to get a referendum agreed quickly? Corbyn clearly doesnt want one, so will prevaricate. Labour policy is to negotiate a new deal then have a series of internal debates ahead of the referendum.Casino_Royale said:FPT - If you think a snap GE might be held this week with a very short campaign leading to an election around 12th October (5 weeks later) that results in Boris losing then a new Government rapidly passes a second referendum act inside a week or two, followed by a very short set up and official campaign of about 4 weeks, it's not impossible a second referendum is held before 2020. It would end up with a poll about mid December. Requires EU to extend to year end of course but they almost certainly would for that.
You can currently lay that at 1.03 on Betfair (roughly 40/1) with plenty of money available.
Of course anything is possible, and we are likely to have deadlock where a 2nd referendum makes most sense, so perhaps.
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I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Somewhere we don't have an extradition treaty or maybe the Ecuadorian embassy?Benpointer said:3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
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Big_G_NorthWales said:
Erm - trying to work out the latest polls showing a Boris landslideBenpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
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Mysticrose said:
I love these betting posts where you can juggle options to achieve the same thing with better odds via an alternative.
However, I got on the Johnson shortest PM at 6-1 which I'm quite happy about it.
I never thought I'd write this, but Jeremy Corbyn is having a very good late summer. He's looking statesmanlike and principled, and he's outsmarted Tony Blair today:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1168476570174054401?s=20
Will Labour be canny enough to demand a price for agreeing to a GE?Scott_P said:0 -
HYUFD loves his DieHard Remainers! "yippee ki yay motherf*cker"HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
The Tory manifesto commitment will be to exit with a Deal ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop 52% of voters backed at the weekend according to Survation, or if the EU does not agree to a technical solution for the Irish border with No Deal.Benpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
It will be a Brexit Deal or No Deal manifesto, not No Deal alone0 -
A minority government of remainers will either see a referendum or revokeHYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
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I mean, if I were Labour I would refuse to do this and VoNC them first to try and form a minority gov for, like, 5 mins and then call the GE yourself. Because Corbyn being incumbent PM (even for a month or so) will make it easier for him to convince people it isn't scary.Cyclefree said:Mysticrose said:I love these betting posts where you can juggle options to achieve the same thing with better odds via an alternative.
However, I got on the Johnson shortest PM at 6-1 which I'm quite happy about it.
I never thought I'd write this, but Jeremy Corbyn is having a very good late summer. He's looking statesmanlike and principled, and he's outsmarted Tony Blair today:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1168476570174054401?s=20
Will Labour be canny enough to demand a price for agreeing to a GE?Scott_P said:0 -
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
He is reckless. Brave would be to actually lead and win people's trust and confidence, argue his case and face parliamentary scrutiny.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
He has no plan, and is therefore desperate for an extension yet cannot get one without losing face. So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.
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Wrong againedmundintokyo said:
Probably wise as last time he went storming off with "we need to prorogue to crush the remainer traitors" only to discover the official line was that it was a perfectly routine action to help the government focus on crime and the NHS and any impact on Brexit was just one of those wild coincidences.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.0 -
On your last sentence HYUFD I agree with youHYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto commitment will be to exit with a Deal ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop 52% of voters backed at the weekend according to Survation, or if the EU does not agree to a technical solution for the Irish border with No Deal.Benpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
It will be a Brexit Deal or No Deal manifesto, not No Deal alone0 -
A reckless coward. You might want to give that more thought.noneoftheabove said:
He is reckless. Brave would be to actually lead and win people's trust and confidence, argue his case and face parliamentary scrutiny.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
He has no plan, and is therefore desperate for an extension yet cannot get one without losing face. So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.0 -
Scott_P said:
Wouldn’t the purdah rules make it very difficult for the government to take the necessary action to deal with any problems? So they could face a No Deal exit, some sort of crisis, an inability to deal with it properly, said crisis getting worse and having a disastrous effect on the Tories’ electoral chances. It might even lead to the Tories getting No Deal but losing the election.Scott_P said:
Is that really what Boris wants?0 -
HYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto commitment will be to exit with a Deal ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop 52% of voters backed at the weekend according to Survation, or if the EU does not agree to a technical solution for the Irish border with No Deal.Benpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
It will be a Brexit Deal or No Deal manifesto, not No Deal alone
Standing in an election and agreeing with the manifesto of your party are traditionally two separate questions, as Jeremy Corbyn among others well knows.
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Interesting to hear your spin when he swaps seats!HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
So he would be happy out of power as the Leavers would be united behind him?HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
Considering that Brexit deal does not exist it is basically a No Deal manifesto. Good to know.HYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto commitment will be to exit with a Deal ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop 52% of voters backed at the weekend according to Survation, or if the EU does not agree to a technical solution for the Irish border with No Deal.Benpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
It will be a Brexit Deal or No Deal manifesto, not No Deal alone0 -
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Very interested to see what Farage does in the event of an election coming into view this week. Stand down the Brexit party is obviously the best way to get a government back that are likely to implement some sort of brexit.
Or go for it split the blue vote and have a lucrative career as the brexit prince over the water for another 20 years.
Don't hold your breath.0 -
Reckless maybe but far from being a cowardDavidL said:
A reckless coward. You might want to give that more thought.noneoftheabove said:
He is reckless. Brave would be to actually lead and win people's trust and confidence, argue his case and face parliamentary scrutiny.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
He has no plan, and is therefore desperate for an extension yet cannot get one without losing face. So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.0 -
I’ve contacted Phil Hammond and a few other anti No Dealers asking them to include in their anti No Deal legislation a clause banning OGH from taking foreign holidays.1
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A drunk driver is a reckless coward, you can be both at the same time. The drunk driver is not brave for taking on more risk.DavidL said:
A reckless coward. You might want to give that more thought.noneoftheabove said:
He is reckless. Brave would be to actually lead and win people's trust and confidence, argue his case and face parliamentary scrutiny.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
He has no plan, and is therefore desperate for an extension yet cannot get one without losing face. So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.0 -
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.2 -
It would be delicious if Johnson's efforts to look untrustworthy sabotaged his plan to hold an election before Brexit.Scott_P said:0 -
I hope so because on a No Deal manifesto they would lose your support, given your status as a diehard Remainer.HYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto commitment will be to exit with a Deal ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop 52% of voters backed at the weekend according to Survation, or if the EU does not agree to a technical solution for the Irish border with No Deal.Benpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
It will be a Brexit Deal or No Deal manifesto, not No Deal alone0 -
Not enough time to do thatnoneoftheabove said:
Interesting to hear your spin when he swaps seats!HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote
GE now 1/10 on0 -
That would be at the outer edge of the range of possibilities, but not utterly impossible, I guess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Erm - trying to work out the latest polls showing a Boris landslideBenpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?0 -
Neither Macron nor Merkel ruled it out, voters also opposed further extension 47% to 41% with SurvationGallowgate said:
Considering that Brexit deal does not exist it is basically a No Deal manifesto. Good to know.HYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto commitment will be to exit with a Deal ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop 52% of voters backed at the weekend according to Survation, or if the EU does not agree to a technical solution for the Irish border with No Deal.Benpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
It will be a Brexit Deal or No Deal manifesto, not No Deal alone0 -
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1168508977900150785mr-claypole said:Very interested to see what Farage does in the event of an election coming into view this week. Stand down the Brexit party is obviously the best way to get a government back that are likely to implement some sort of brexit.
Or go for it split the blue vote and have a lucrative career as the brexit prince over the water for another 20 years.
Don't hold your breath.0 -
I don't see why he is a coward either. He is much more likely to be someone who in their impaired judgment grossly underestimated the risks of being caught and the potential risks to others.noneoftheabove said:
A drunk driver is a reckless coward, you can be both at the same time. The drunk driver is not brave for taking on more risk.DavidL said:
A reckless coward. You might want to give that more thought.noneoftheabove said:
He is reckless. Brave would be to actually lead and win people's trust and confidence, argue his case and face parliamentary scrutiny.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
He has no plan, and is therefore desperate for an extension yet cannot get one without losing face. So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.0 -
Temporarily as he would win a landslide at the next general election maybeTOPPING said:
So he would be happy out of power as the Leavers would be united behind him?HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
Btw, kudos for TSE for sneaking the schoolboy pun into the title.0
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Some rumours heard at the weekend Boris will be dropped into Beckenham replacing Bob Stewart who will be off to the Lordsnoneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
If there is to be a GE I wish I had a vote in Copeland where my vote might make a difference. I could campaign for the Lib Dems in London but I think they will have an uphill battle in the constituency where I live, despite the good European election results.0
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Agreed, it will only be the Brexit Party backing No Deal in all circumstancesBig_G_NorthWales said:
On your last sentence HYUFD I agree with youHYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto commitment will be to exit with a Deal ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop 52% of voters backed at the weekend according to Survation, or if the EU does not agree to a technical solution for the Irish border with No Deal.Benpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
It will be a Brexit Deal or No Deal manifesto, not No Deal alone0 -
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/rebel-mps-leaked-motion-brexit
Rebel MPs led by Oliver Letwin, Dominic Grieve and Keir Starmer will attempt to rush legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit through Parliament in just a few hours, according to a draft version of their motion leaked to BuzzFeed News.
In a manoeuvre that would be far bolder and more radical than the one that allowed MPs to take control of the order paper in April, the draft motion would give the House of Commons just hours to pass the law and make it difficult for MPs to table considered amendments, either to the motion or to the legislation to block no-deal.
BuzzFeed News understands the rebels have been divided on whether to attempt to pass the motion and legislation in one day on Tuesday, or over two days on Tuesday and Wednesday. A source said some MPs want to get the bill through Parliament over one day in order to hamper government efforts to block the legislation. Another source said it was likely to clear Parliament on Wednesday.
The draft motion, which contains 19 clauses and could change substantially by the time it is tabled, outlines the plan to move a motion at an emergency debate on Tuesday. If passed, it would allow MPs opposed to no-deal to seize control of the House of Commons from the government and then pass legislation in the Commons within hours.
The rebel MPs would then immediately take control of the Commons chamber and advance a piece of legislation that is expected to be entitled the European Union (Withdrawal) (No.6) Bill.
The bill would require Boris Johnson to seek an extension from the EU if he has not agreed a new deal with Brussels by a certain date in October.
This is in line with the last attempt by Labour's Yvette Cooper to mandate former prime minister Theresa May to seek an extension to Article 50 back in April. That Bill was No.5.
The draft motion allows MPs to propose amendments to the bill with pen and paper by submitting them to the clerks sitting at the central table within the chamber, but it will be difficult to make considered amendments to either the motion alongside the emergency debate or the legislation aimed at preventing a no-deal Brexit
BuzzFeed News is told the motion has been drafted in this way because rebels fear that they do not have enough time to prevent Brexiteers from filibustering the legislation in the Lords.
A rebel source said that very few rebels have been involved in the plan to seize the Commons on Tuesday.
Letwin has been working with a close-knit group including the Clerk of Bills in the Commons, Starmer and Dominic Grieve. Letwin and Grieve did not respond to requests for comment.
0 -
And making me Justice Secretary. Don’t forget that!TheScreamingEagles said:I’ve contacted Phil Hammond and a few other anti No Dealers asking them to include in their anti No Deal legislation a clause banning OGH from taking foreign holidays.
0 -
I cannot see a majority to be honestNigelb said:
That would be at the outer edge of the range of possibilities, but not utterly impossible, I guess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Erm - trying to work out the latest polls showing a Boris landslideBenpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?0 -
Nice to see David Herdson providing us with a list of those MPs who will not be restanding for the Tory Party at the next election.0
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We may well need a different parliament (we certainly need a different PM). The correct way to have got one would have been to agree an extension with the EU, in order to hold a GE with enough time aftwerards to implement the legislation necessary to mitigate the disaster of no-deal, or alternatively to agree and implement a smooth exit, depending on the GE result.DavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Agreed - the coward epithet is overused for people one doesn’t like.DavidL said:
I don't see why he is a coward either. He is much more likely to be someone who in their impaired judgment grossly underestimated the risks of being caught and the potential risks to others.noneoftheabove said:
A drunk driver is a reckless coward, you can be both at the same time. The drunk driver is not brave for taking on more risk.DavidL said:
A reckless coward. You might want to give that more thought.noneoftheabove said:
He is reckless. Brave would be to actually lead and win people's trust and confidence, argue his case and face parliamentary scrutiny.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
He has no plan, and is therefore desperate for an extension yet cannot get one without losing face. So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.
There’s plenty of other disobliging stuff to call him.0 -
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
How many days has Boris got left of Merkel’s 30 day deadline?HYUFD said:
Neither Macron nor Merkel ruled it out, voters also opposed further extension 47% to 41% with SurvationGallowgate said:
Considering that Brexit deal does not exist it is basically a No Deal manifesto. Good to know.HYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto commitment will be to exit with a Deal ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop 52% of voters backed at the weekend according to Survation, or if the EU does not agree to a technical solution for the Irish border with No Deal.Benpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?
It will be a Brexit Deal or No Deal manifesto, not No Deal alone0 -
Well, I bloody well hope it doesn't fall on that clause - you will be forever infamous as the cause of No Deal chaos.TheScreamingEagles said:I’ve contacted Phil Hammond and a few other anti No Dealers asking them to include in their anti No Deal legislation a clause banning OGH from taking foreign holidays.
0 -
What five years hence?HYUFD said:
Temporarily as he would win a landslide at the next general election maybeTOPPING said:
So he would be happy out of power as the Leavers would be united behind him?HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote0 -
Neither can I, but I’ve been wrong before.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see a majority to be honestNigelb said:
That would be at the outer edge of the range of possibilities, but not utterly impossible, I guess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Erm - trying to work out the latest polls showing a Boris landslideBenpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?0 -
Not a huge fan of Boris but he's twice the man that lumbering oaf Soames is.SouthamObserver said:Plastic Churchill Boris Johnson is going to throw Winston Churchill's grandson out of the Conservative party. The symbolism is magnificent. And there wil be many loons on here and in the country who will applaud it.
0 -
If that includes Christmas holidays, would that be a Santa clause?TheScreamingEagles said:I’ve contacted Phil Hammond and a few other anti No Dealers asking them to include in their anti No Deal legislation a clause banning OGH from taking foreign holidays.
0 -
Yay! Someone noticed it, I’m just too damn subtle.Nigelb said:Btw, kudos for TSE for sneaking the schoolboy pun into the title.
0 -
Slightly OT, there was an interesting suggestion this morning on the Today Programme that Boris mihht be able to persuade one or more of the leaders of EU countries to vote against an extension if he is forced to ask for one0
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We don't need more time to hold an election. Whether we need more time afterwards depends on the result. We may be revoking at the instance of PM Swinson. It's all to play for but this has dragged on too long already.Richard_Nabavi said:
We may well need a different parliament (we certainly need a different PM). The correct way to have got one would have been to agree an extension with the EU, in order to hold a GE with enough time aftwerards to implement the legislation necessary to mitigate the disaster of no-deal, or alternatively to agree and implement a smooth exit, depending on the GE result.DavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
If there is a GE, do we know if Bercow is running again? Not had a real stake in the game for a decade those of us in the Peoples Republic of Bercow.0
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Why would those 2017 Labour Remainers vote LD? Its not a seat the LDs expect to win and every remainer there knows its the PMs own seat, Labour would campaign hard there, so tactical voting would likely squeeze LD vote even further (although given the vote is non-existent there it probably can't go much further down). The Lib Lab split is being overdone. Push comes to shove anyone wanting to stop no deal will hold a peg over their nose and vote for whichever is best placed to stop the tories in a pre brexit GE. No-one will believe that Labour can get a majority so people will be less scared of Corbyn.HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote
However I don't think it will be enough for Labour to take the seat.0 -
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=CowardDavidL said:
I don't see why he is a coward either. He is much more likely to be someone who in their impaired judgment grossly underestimated the risks of being caught and the potential risks to others.noneoftheabove said:
A drunk driver is a reckless coward, you can be both at the same time. The drunk driver is not brave for taking on more risk.DavidL said:
A reckless coward. You might want to give that more thought.noneoftheabove said:
He is reckless. Brave would be to actually lead and win people's trust and confidence, argue his case and face parliamentary scrutiny.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
He has no plan, and is therefore desperate for an extension yet cannot get one without losing face. So he destroys the Conservative party to save himself. A selfish coward.
"someone who runs away or abandons his responsibilities or obligations during times of danger, distress, pain, or fear of the unknown; someone whose concern is only for himself"
The drunk driver and our PM both abandon their obligations and responsibilities and their only concern is for themself.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
He's not fit to be in the Cabinet, let alone PM.0 -
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Well, yes, it is true that Revoking is the only thing for which we wouldn't need extra time between a GE and October 31st. But somehow I don't expect that to be a Conservative manifesto promise.DavidL said:
We don't need more time to hold an election. Whether we need more time afterwards depends on the result. We may be revoking at the instance of PM Swinson. It's all to play for but this has dragged on too long already.Richard_Nabavi said:
We may well need a different parliament (we certainly need a different PM). The correct way to have got one would have been to agree an extension with the EU, in order to hold a GE with enough time aftwerards to implement the legislation necessary to mitigate the disaster of no-deal, or alternatively to agree and implement a smooth exit, depending on the GE result.DavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
Haven't we all !!!Nigelb said:
Neither can I, but I’ve been wrong before.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see a majority to be honestNigelb said:
That would be at the outer edge of the range of possibilities, but not utterly impossible, I guess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Erm - trying to work out the latest polls showing a Boris landslideBenpointer said:Two Three thoughts:
1. Surely the Rebel Tories who are threatened with de-selection couldn't support a Tory manifesto commitment to exit with No Deal anyway. So does the de-selection really mean much?
2. A GE campaign with the Tories promising to exit with No Deal will be very interesting. Plenty of big employers are going to struggle to keep schtum on the negative effects of No Deal on threir businesses imo.
3. Where's @HUYFD to explain how this all fits into the master plan?0 -
On latest polls the Tories have a 7 to 11% lead, the LDs are just 1 to 3% behind Labour with Swinson now ahead of Corbyn as preferred PM.Paristonda said:
Why would those 2017 Labour Remainers vote LD? Its not a seat the LDs expect to win and every remainer there knows its the PMs own seat, Labour would campaign hard there, so tactical voting would likely squeeze LD vote even further (although given the vote is non-existent there it probably can't go much further down). The Lib Lab split is being overdone. Push comes to shove anyone wanting to stop no deal will hold a peg over their nose and vote for whichever is best placed to stop the tories in a pre brexit GE. No-one will believe that Labour can get a majority so people will be less scared of Corbyn.HYUFD said:
No, a general election suits Boris fine, as does a minority government of diehard Remainers leaving him with Leavers united behind him.Nigelb said:Is HYUFD waiting to be briefed on the new line ?
Unusually quiet.
In Uxbridge on present polling Boris will increase his majority, remember Hillingdon where Uxbridge lies voted Leave and many 2017 Labour Remainers will vote LD this time splitting the anti Boris vote
However I don't think it will be enough for Labour to take the seat.
It is now possible the Tories could win a majority on a third of the vote with the Liberals beating Labour in voteshare to take second place on votes for the first time since pre 19180 -
“Shortly, there will be an election....”0
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If the GE is a tight affair resulting in a Tory majority for sake of argument in single figures then not much is gained in terms of moving Brexit forward unless the 22 are deselected (a few are not standing again anyway e.g Letwin).Richard_Tyndall said:Nice to see David Herdson providing us with a list of those MPs who will not be restanding for the Tory Party at the next election.
Personally I feel the rebels should hold their fire until after the Queens Speech and give the game of brinkmanship with the EU a chance to succeed.0 -
What would you do then?HYUFD said:
Further extension if allowed by Boris likely puts Farage in Downing Street or Corbyn in Downing Street with a split Leaver voteDavidL said:
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.DavidL said:
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".noneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0 -
"to honour the 2016 referendum campaign to Leave with a deal..."
This entirely disingenuous, as the author clearly knows. Dishonest.0 -
SLab at 35% Scon at 25% SLD at 20% SNP at 15%.Jonathan said:If Ed Milliband had won we would be sharing pictures of our free owls now. LoO Osborne would be having fun at the EdStones expenses. Boris Johnson would be about to debut on Strictly. Farage would be a witness in the trial of once presidential hopeful Trump.
Ed Miliband, saviour of the Union.0 -
Ooh, I could apply for that. It's where I grew up. I'm not sure the members would vote for me over BJ, though.mr-claypole said:
Some rumours heard at the weekend Boris will be dropped into Beckenham replacing Bob Stewart who will be off to the Lordsnoneoftheabove said:
10/1 to change seat is betterAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
Leadership interviews - ran away
Leadership debates - ran away
Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues
Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.0
