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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,552
    edited September 2019
    Freggles said:

    It's good at a few niche subjects like computer aided animation and more practical things like social work iirc
    This is my general issue with the way university expansion has gone. We have created 130+ universities that in order to become unis (rather than polys / HE facilities) have to had to add a wider range of subjects. The result a dilution at massive cost, and lots and lots of crap degrees.

    Very very few old polys have become excellent all round unis, and often in order to offer the "wider range" they have come up with all sorts of crap rather than offering say STEM.

    Winchester was decent teacher training place, Coventry for practical mechanical engineering, Harper Adams for agriculture. Now all piss poor ranked unis.

  • The affluent areas get the affluent immigrants and the deprived areas get the deprived immigrants.

    I've been saying that for years.

    The group which loses out most is the UK's working poor and the group which gains most is the UK's non-working rich.

    There's an element of truth in your first statement for sure. A lot of the difference in perspective on immigration comes from different first hand experience. So in my case, when I read people saying immigrants are terrible, lazy, unproductive etc it is just laughable and also insulting because my own experience has been 100% the opposite and you are talking about my friends and family.
    But that is why to be objective you need to look at the data and serious empirical analysis, and the message from that is unambiguously that immigration from the EU has been good for the UK. There is almost no evidence of a negative effect on wages for instance.
    If you don't look at the data, we are just swapping anecdotes and a load of small sample observations conditioned by prejudice and preconceptions. I had a great Polish builder vs you saw a Slovakian Roma begging in Rotherham town centre. We could do that all day without learning anything.
  • The Remainers are taking a knife to a gun fight. They may have the Twittersphere with them. But they haven't got the wider public onside.
    The wider public is not above the law
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    Ratters said:

    VONC will only occur in the event that the legislative route fails, i.e. when Parliament returns in October.

    There are very good reasons for this:

    1) The fact that the the prorogation cuts short the 14 day period for forming an alternative government. If they fail in those 5 days then Johnson chooses the election date (likely post-Brexit, so not worth the risk)

    2) Conservative rebels are understandably more open to defying the party whip than they are voting down their own government - so legislation is easier to pass (even with the latest threats of deselection)

    3) There is still time for a VONC in October if needed - and it will be clear that there's no alternative to stop no deal by that point and so a caretaker government (Corbyn or otherwise) is more likely to be agreed

    I agree that the politics of this generally works in Johnson's favour in terms of coalescing the Brexit vote to his party, and he'll spin any extension as being forced on him by a "Remoaner Parliament". So he may well lose the battle but win the war. But if the Conservatives win a majority on a no deal manifesto, then so be it - they will also own the consequences.
    and while we may not like it at least No Deal will have been formally voted for...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    Of course. But most of the high paying jobs (and this is high end residential) in Newcastle are not in the city centre or accessible easily by public transport. They are in out of town business parks.
    And Cobalt is a right faff to get to even with a car let alone without one.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    This is my general issue with the way university expansion has gone. We have created 130+ universities that in order to become unis (rather than polys / HE facilities) have to had to add a wider range of subjects. The result a dilution at massive cost, and lots and lots of crap degrees.

    Very very few old polys have become excellent all round unis.
    I’m about to go to a former poly after doing my original degree at a redbrick so I will let you know what I think of the differences.

    (Newcastle University and Northumbria University)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited September 2019

    There's an element of truth in your first statement for sure. A lot of the difference in perspective on immigration comes from different first hand experience. So in my case, when I read people saying immigrants are terrible, lazy, unproductive etc it is just laughable and also insulting because my own experience has been 100% the opposite and you are talking about my friends and family.
    But that is why to be objective you need to look at the data and serious empirical analysis, and the message from that is unambiguously that immigration from the EU has been good for the UK. There is almost no evidence of a negative effect on wages for instance.
    If you don't look at the data, we are just swapping anecdotes and a load of small sample observations conditioned by prejudice and preconceptions. I had a great Polish builder vs you saw a Slovakian Roma begging in Rotherham town centre. We could do that all day without learning anything.
    There is evidence of immigration impacting low wages - I'll have to dig out the survey.

    The problem is that, like a lot of other things, the immigration factor is hidden by other factors such as minimum wage hikes which has resulted in pushing more and more jobs into the minimum wage band.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120
    edited September 2019
    eek said:

    Boris doesn't have the moral authority for No Deal as all Leave campaigning groups ruled out No Deal...
    Corbyn doesn't have the moral authority for further extension which voters opposed 47% to 41% with Survation yesterday.

    52% of voters back the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop with a technical alternative as Boris wants in the same poll
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    He will, when it comes down to "us" or "them"....
    I thought Johnson was aiming to unify the country, or was that just another of his endless lies? You don't unify the country by opting for a type of Brexit that the leave campaigns themselves ruled out. Any short term political gain will be a pyrrhic victory.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Sounds like an attempt to try to force people to use public transport.
    I don’t see the problem there. Anyone buying a flat here will know upfront that there is no parking. And given it is in a major city centre, public transport is a viable option.

    Car parks are an incredibly inefficient use of valuable space, especially in city centres - it’s absolutely right to discourage them - not to mention all the pollution and traffic cars cause.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    I’m about to go to a former poly after doing my original degree at a redbrick so I will let you know what I think of the differences.

    (Newcastle University and Northumbria University)
    Oh the City University of Newcastle upon Tyne (as it was almost called).
  • geoffw said:

    It's not a GONU
    It's a GONAD (Government Of NAtional Disunity).
    Bollocks to that!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn doesn't have the moral authority for further extension which voters opposed 47% to 41% with Survation yesterday.

    52% of voters back the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop with a technical alternative as Boris wants in the same poll
    But the withdrawal agreement without the backstop isn't an option - it's just a unicorn in the same way my children used to want ice cream every meal.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn doesn't have the moral authority for further extension which voters opposed 47% to 41% with Survation yesterday.

    52% of voters back the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop with a technical alternative as Boris wants in the same poll
    Opinion polls don’t confer moral authority on anybody they are to help people bet more effectively or to provide debating topics on political discussion forums.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    The immediate option open to the house is to VONC. Meanwhile Boris will be all over the TV saying “look how they’re trying to sabotage getting a deal” and “ Ill ask for an extension if they drop the backstop”.
    So if that happened and BJ refused to ask for an extension could he be arrested?
  • eek said:

    But the withdrawal agreement without the backstop isn't an option - it's just a unicorn
    It’s the only one the House has voted FOR. What’s the point of an extension if the only thing they’ll agree isn’t on the table?
  • HYUFD said:

    Not at all, Thompson just making the sensible point the main 3 separate pro Union parties should fight general elections not 1single pro Union one, just as the main pro Remain and anti hard Brexit parties will fight the next general election separately not a 1 pro Remain party
    'Thompson'
    'sensible point'

    That BJ koolaid is powerful stuff.

    Regardless of Thompson's point, the fact is that other elected members of his party are making diametrically opposed points involving dissolution of his sub branch of said party.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    nichomar said:

    Opinion polls don’t confer moral authority on anybody they are to help people bet more effectively or to provide debating topics on political discussion forums.
    Moral support would have expressed it better.
  • timmo said:

    So if that happened and BJ refused to ask for an extension could he be arrested?
    Yes, and also held in contempt of Parliament which would mean he could be banned from the Commons
  • Short of a gold rush, TINA for the Middlesbroughs.
    But we’re not actually even doing that. We’re just leaving it to rot.
    Teesside needs to be selected to be the country's first decarbonised industrial cluster. Carbon capture and storage, low carbon hydrogen, decarbonised industrial production, CO2 reuse. Billions of investment.

    The region has a Tory mayor, which must count for something.
  • Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of lads.

    #ToryCivilWar

    https://twitter.com/RobertTyreBute/status/1168102419290578945?s=20

    It's called internal debate, I realise that's not a familiar concept in SNP circles.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    timmo said:

    So if that happened and BJ refused to ask for an extension could he be arrested?
    Why bother - he can’t be compelled to accept any extension offer from the EU.

    Remainers simply wasting time.
  • The House refuses to act on a referendum passed by the voters.

    Boris has the moral authority.
    He voted against Brexit! Keep up!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It does look like the "rebels" will try and introduce legislation under SO24.

    Assuming the speaker allows it, instead of trying to make BoZo extend, why not repeal the FTPA?

    Then VoNC him without all the 14 day, BoZo picks the date nonsense...
  • Mr. T, Pyrrhus was far more capable than the PM.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Yes, and also held in contempt of Parliament which would mean he could be banned from the Commons
    Then a recall petition such fun
  • It's called internal debate, I realise that's not a familiar concept in SNP circles.
    Internal debate through the medium of newspaper articles & twitter? A novel interpretation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited September 2019
    PM hosting whips at Chequers tonight


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Internal debate through the medium of newspaper articles & twitter? A novel interpretation.
    Internal debate in the SNP is when Pete knocks on the bedroom wall and asks Nicola and her friend to keep the noise down.
  • Almost all of the regeneration is privately funded. Its not paid for by councils.

    For example, Tesco pretty much paid for the redevelopment of the entirety of Gateshead Town Centre.
    And we lost an iconic landmark. Fascists.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    It's called internal debate, I realise that's not a familiar concept in SNP circles.
    Do as I say or you’re deselected... some debate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    OllyT said:

    I thought Johnson was aiming to unify the country, or was that just another of his endless lies? You don't unify the country by opting for a type of Brexit that the leave campaigns themselves ruled out. Any short term political gain will be a pyrrhic victory.
    He's going to unify the country against those MPs voting to block Brexit.

    Just watch.....
  • F1: Sainz and Giovinazzi have more changes and ensuing penalties and Kubica's starting from the pit lane.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Scott_P said:

    It does look like the "rebels" will try and introduce legislation under SO24.

    Assuming the speaker allows it, instead of trying to make BoZo extend, why not repeal the FTPA?

    Then VoNC him without all the 14 day, BoZo picks the date nonsense...

    Why not give someone other than the PM (e.g. the Speaker) the right to negotiate the extension? (Bercow would love that) :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120
    nichomar said:

    Opinion polls don’t confer moral authority on anybody they are to help people bet more effectively or to provide debating topics on political discussion forums.
    They do given the only reason diehard Remainers refuse to respect the democratic Leave vote is apparently polling evidence there is no longer a mandate to deliver Brexit
  • You would go down the A19 to get to Teesside!
    That's why people prefer to live along the A1 corridor!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120
    eek said:

    But the withdrawal agreement without the backstop isn't an option - it's just a unicorn in the same way my children used to want ice cream every meal.
    It is and Macron and Merkel have not ruled it out.

    Plus given only 40% back Revoke and Remain in the latest Survation it is the only Brexit solution with majority support from both the voters and as the Brady amendment showed the Commons
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He's going to unify the country against those MPs voting to block Brexit.

    Just watch.....

    We are watching.

    The Unified country was all over TV yesterday protesting against BoZo...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Right... so I only have to abide by the law if I like the legislation?

    It's called "Taking Back Control"...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    TGOHF said:

    Why bother - he can’t be compelled to accept any extension offer from the EU.

    Remainers simply wasting time.
    I'm sure there's some Remainers would be happy to require Govt. to accept whatever terms the EU comes back with. But not enough to get that law passed.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Scott_P said:

    We are watching.

    The Unified country was all over TV yesterday protesting against BoZo...
    Oh yeah, such numbers of them....

    ....versus 17.4m.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120
    Scott_P said:
    A majority of voters voted for Brexit, a majority have not voted for Corbyn
  • British lawyer for Albanian gangsters is shot three times in the head in execution-style killing after losing a string of high-profile mob cases

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7415279/British-lawyer-Albanian-gangsters-shot-three-times-head-losing-string-cases.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2019

    He voted against Brexit! Keep up!
    No he didn't, he voted to invoke Article 50 and he voted against extending Article 50. Those are the votes on Brexit we've had that passed to get us where we are so far.
  • HYUFD said:



    They do given the only reason diehard Remainers

    But you voted REMAIN!
  • HYUFD said:

    A majority of voters voted for Brexit, a majority have not voted for Corbyn
    HYUFD voted for REMAIN!
  • Hopes of a ‘Scottish DUP’ at Westminster faded as Ruth Davidson stayed away from formal meetings

    Efforts to create a distinct Scottish group were also undermined by government whips, who feared the MPs’ intentions. A request for the 12 backbench Scottish Tories to have adjacent offices was turned down, and they were assigned to separate parts of the parliamentary estate. “I thought it was silly,” a senior Scottish Tory figure at Westminster says, but a Downing Street source admitted there was “concern” about how the group would behave.

    Promotions to jobs as parliamentary aides were also used as a means to undermine Scottish Tory unity, members of the group claim. “The whips were very clever in picking off those who were vulnerable, to win their loyalty,” one MP says. “You can see by who it was that got promoted.”

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/hopes-of-a-scottish-dup-at-westminster-faded-as-ruth-davidson-stayed-away-from-formal-meetings-1-4995061
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    https://mobile.twitter.com/OptoSean/status/1167926313484607488

    Why do remainers always get away with acting like this?
  • TGOHF said:

    Internal debate in the SNP is when Pete knocks on the bedroom wall and asks Nicola and her friend to keep the noise down.
    I see Woke Are The People didn't last long.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited September 2019

    The affluent areas get the affluent immigrants and the deprived areas get the deprived immigrants.

    I've been saying that for years.

    The group which loses out most is the UK's working poor and the group which gains most is the UK's non-working rich.
    Since we are talking about the NE:

    See the little faggot with the earring and the make up
    Yeah buddy that's his own hair
    That little faggot got his own jet airplane
    That little faggot he's a millionaire
    We got to install microwave ovens, custom kitchen deliveries
    We got to move these refrigerators, we gotta move these color TV's
  • Mr. T, Pyrrhus was far more capable than the PM.

    Mr Dancer, forgot to mention: nice thread yesterday!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Scott_P said:

    It does look like the "rebels" will try and introduce legislation under SO24.

    Assuming the speaker allows it, instead of trying to make BoZo extend, why not repeal the FTPA?

    Then VoNC him without all the 14 day, BoZo picks the date nonsense...

    Why would the Opposition and Tory rebels be inclined to support that?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn doesn't have the moral authority for further extension which voters opposed 47% to 41% with Survation yesterday.

    52% of voters back the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop with a technical alternative as Boris wants in the same poll
    How many backed No Deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120

    But you voted REMAIN!
    So what, on that basis if a party won an election and I voted against that party I would refuse to recognise that election result and that Government, exactly as diehard Remainers refuse to recognise the Leave vote of 2016
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    This is utter bollocks. Have you any expereince of the welfare system in action?

    No 'productive youngster' would choose that route if they had a genuine alternative of productive employment - living on welfare is pretty crap.
    On here they think that people on benefits are living in a land of milk and honey , half the time abroad and other half in their mansions, all funded by being lazy tossers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120
    edited September 2019

    How many backed No Deal
    That did not have a majority either but then further extension and revoke also failed to get a majority, as I said the only majority was for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, exactly as Boris is aiming for
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    edited September 2019



    I don't think either part of that is correct. There are many other countries in Europe with a far shorter tail of the unproductive and uneducated. The reasons why we are different are I suspect complex and tied into our history of industrialisation and deindustrialization, both of which were particularly brutal. I imagine with some effort we could do something about it.

    Also, I believe that the data tell us we are disproportionately importing the young, educated and productive from Europe. The kind of people who would be sitting on their arse in their equivalent of Hartlepool smoking tabs are probably still sitting on their arse in their equivalent of Hartlepool smoking tabs.

    Part of the problem was working class culture, which fetishised collectivism and strength, and was often anti education.*

    That culture, particularly the latter, still persists in our schools.

    It's inevitably difficult for people to keep up in a knowledge economy if they don't want to learn.

    *- I am aware of the history of working class self-improvement through the Trades Union movement, libraries, the origin of the Technical Institutes etc, but that seems to have withered, or the people who "self-improved" now are middle class.
  • HYUFD said:

    So what, on that basis if a party won an election and I voted against that party I would refuse to recognise that election result and that Government, exactly as diehard Remainers refuse to recognise the Leave vote of 2016
    But you voted REMAIN, making you a Diehard Remainer!
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    RE: The thread header, is there a strong sense anyone serious will run against Trump for the nomination? Feels late to me and I’ve seen nothing. But I’m not American and it’s the sort of thing that wouldn’t be obvious here.
  • nunuone said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/OptoSean/status/1167926313484607488

    Why do remainers always get away with acting like this?

    Apart from this literally single piece of bullshit you plucked from Twitter, Remainers don’t in general act like this and don’t get away with it.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited September 2019
    malcolmg said:

    On here they think that people on benefits are living in a land of milk and honey , half the time abroad and other half in their mansions, all funded by being lazy tossers.
    No I mean comment on what I see - East Europeans with children joining the 16 hour a week brigade. It's not all of them but for those with lower paying skillsets it's not much different from working 35+ hours a week.
  • Hopes of a ‘Scottish DUP’ at Westminster faded as Ruth Davidson stayed away from formal meetings

    Efforts to create a distinct Scottish group were also undermined by government whips, who feared the MPs’ intentions. A request for the 12 backbench Scottish Tories to have adjacent offices was turned down, and they were assigned to separate parts of the parliamentary estate. “I thought it was silly,” a senior Scottish Tory figure at Westminster says, but a Downing Street source admitted there was “concern” about how the group would behave.

    Promotions to jobs as parliamentary aides were also used as a means to undermine Scottish Tory unity, members of the group claim. “The whips were very clever in picking off those who were vulnerable, to win their loyalty,” one MP says. “You can see by who it was that got promoted.”

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/hopes-of-a-scottish-dup-at-westminster-faded-as-ruth-davidson-stayed-away-from-formal-meetings-1-4995061

    A separation of the Tory party in Scotland is probably a necessary condition now of maintaining the Union.

    Possibly Labour too.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Apart from this literally single piece of bullshit you plucked from Twitter, Remainers don’t in general act like this and don’t get away with it.
    Twitter is also full of Brexit frothers. Its a myth to suggest its just a left wing echo chamber.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited September 2019
    eek said:

    No I mean comment on what I see - East Europeans with children joining the 16 hour a week brigade.
    I agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that there is no point in simply trading anecdote.

    The data says immigration has been overwhelmingly positive.

    The problem, however, is that our in-work credits system incentivises what you are talking about and to most fair-minded people, it shouldn’t be allowed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    'Thompson'
    'sensible point'

    That BJ koolaid is powerful stuff.

    Regardless of Thompson's point, the fact is that other elected members of his party are making diametrically opposed points involving dissolution of his sub branch of said party.

    Also , Mr Touchy Feely is not exactly well endowed in the brain department is he. He would be in line to win " Best Dud of the Invisible 13 " title.
  • Hopes of a ‘Scottish DUP’ at Westminster faded as Ruth Davidson stayed away from formal meetings

    Efforts to create a distinct Scottish group were also undermined by government whips, who feared the MPs’ intentions. A request for the 12 backbench Scottish Tories to have adjacent offices was turned down, and they were assigned to separate parts of the parliamentary estate. “I thought it was silly,” a senior Scottish Tory figure at Westminster says, but a Downing Street source admitted there was “concern” about how the group would behave.

    Promotions to jobs as parliamentary aides were also used as a means to undermine Scottish Tory unity, members of the group claim. “The whips were very clever in picking off those who were vulnerable, to win their loyalty,” one MP says. “You can see by who it was that got promoted.”

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/hopes-of-a-scottish-dup-at-westminster-faded-as-ruth-davidson-stayed-away-from-formal-meetings-1-4995061

    What was silly was Downing Street having the slightest concern about any problems from the tame twelve.

    Party (Con) & country (UK) over country (Scotland) every single fcuking time.
  • Since we are talking about the NE:

    See the little faggot with the earring and the make up
    Yeah buddy that's his own hair
    That little faggot got his own jet airplane
    That little faggot he's a millionaire
    We got to install microwave ovens, custom kitchen deliveries
    We got to move these refrigerators, we gotta move these color TV's
    So are you saying the working poor can be the next Mark Knopfler if they tried a bit harder ?

    I suspect they've already realised that music or football might be a way of making millions.

    But in reality its a lot less likely than them getting a nice upper-middle class career.
  • Thanks, Dr. Prasannan :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    HYUFD said:

    That did not have a majority either but then further extension and revoke also failed to get a majority, as I said the only majority was for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, exactly as Boris is aiming for
    The Survation says 18% want No Deal

    Wake up HYUFD
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    The Survation says 18% want No Deal

    Wake up HYUFD
    You can’t reason with extremists @bigjohnowls. You should know.
  • So are you saying the working poor can be the next Mark Knopfler if they tried a bit harder ?

    I suspect they've already realised that music or football might be a way of making millions.

    But in reality its a lot less likely than them getting a nice upper-middle class career.
    Sting sang the backing vocals (eg. "I want my MTV!"):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTP2RUD_cL0
  • Yes, and also held in contempt of Parliament which would mean he could be banned from the Commons
    on what basis could he be arrested? Breaking a law is not automatically a criminal offence, thank goodness, and the sanction for breaking are mentioned in it so what sanctions will the House be able to agree on? I think it would be outrageous but like much in the debate in the UK it is all getting a bit fraught and out of proportion.

    Even if a new law is passed, requiring Johnson to seek an extension and even if it specified the wording of the request and also mandated accepting any terms for an extension he could get round it. Such a law would itself of course be an outrage and constitution breaching but that ship sailed long ago. Opponents of the government need to remove it if they can - it is their only play.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    I agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that there is no point in simply trading anecdote.

    The data says immigration has been overwhelmingly positive.

    The problem, however, is that our in-work credits system incentivises what you are talking about and to most fair-minded people, it shouldn’t be allowed.
    Anecdotes show snap-shots of reality. It's not that I don't think immigration isn't a positive - in a lot of cases it really is but there are exceptions to that.
  • I agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that there is no point in simply trading anecdote.

    The data says immigration has been overwhelmingly positive.

    The problem, however, is that our in-work credits system incentivises what you are talking about and to most fair-minded people, it shouldn’t be allowed.
    Do you have that data ?

    The most recent ONS data gives unemployment at 3.7% UK nationals, 3.5% EU nationals and 7.0% non-EU nationals.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    I think you are totally wrong there. I have business in Lancaster from time to time and always stay in a nice bnb in Morecombe. That's a town that has seen better days, but it remains attractive because public money has been spent on the seafront. So visitors, even fleeting ones like me, still turn up and spend money. If it went to wrack and ruin I'd find somewhere else to spend my travelling expenses.
    Morecambe has undergone a huge redevelopment over recent years and on Sunny week-ends the place is packed out.
    The sea wall has been rebuilt,Midland Hotel re-opened, tatty funfair gone, Eric statue attracts thousands etc.
    OK the West end is grim, but the Bare end and Happy mount park are very good, especially as Blobby land was kicked out of the park.
  • jayfdee said:

    Morecambe has undergone a huge redevelopment over recent years and on Sunny week-ends the place is packed out.
    The sea wall has been rebuilt,Midland Hotel re-opened, tatty funfair gone, Eric statue attracts thousands etc.
    OK the West end is grim, but the Bare end and Happy mount park are very good, especially as Blobby land was kicked out of the park.
    I did the train to Heysham :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Hartlepool IS reinventing itself. It just takes a long time and a lot of people suffer.

    The regeneration around the marina is lovely.

    It’s got a fantastic collection of public art. They should make more of it
  • So are you saying the working poor can be the next Mark Knopfler if they tried a bit harder ?

    I suspect they've already realised that music or football might be a way of making millions.

    But in reality its a lot less likely than them getting a nice upper-middle class career.
    No, I was riffing off your reference to the “non-working rich” by quoting Mark Knopfler (adopting a working class voice) on “Money for Nothing”.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    I did the train to Heysham :)
    Were you the only person on board.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    They have got rid of majority of devolution , it is whatever you want to term it , for me it is dictatorship/coup/whatever.
    Given that it is U.K. foreign policy that we are leaving the EU in 2 months wouldn’t the flights just be a waste of public money?
  • Do you have that data ?

    The most recent ONS data gives unemployment at 3.7% UK nationals, 3.5% EU nationals and 7.0% non-EU nationals.
    I was talking about EU migration.

    Those non-EU rates surprise me, but one imagines if you drill into the data the issue is overwhelmingly immigrants from poorer Muslim communities, and Somalis.

    Other groups, like West Africans, will probably overperform.
  • No, I was riffing off your reference to the “non-working rich” by quoting Mark Knopfler (adopting a working class voice) on “Money for Nothing”.
    I like the riffing phrase to go with a music reference.

    Though I'd say that those who make it big in music or sport do work damn hard.

    They also have talent and luck.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That’s the only path open to them. Jeremy to lay the motion Tuesday?
    Wouldn’t that mess up the Remainers plans though...

    1. Jezza doing something which take priority over their other plans
    2. Unlikely (?) to be successful - in which case time is wasted and Boris strengthened
    3. If successful need to find a new PM
    4. Corbyn goes first (?) unlikely to be successful - if not he has wasted time
    5. If no alternative found then an election where Boris sets the date (can an election be called while Parliament is prorogued it does it need to wait until it returns to move a writ or whatever?)
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Does anyone else, when they hear "the Rebel MPs", think of this?
    https://youtu.be/SE0hwfCu-m4
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    I was talking about EU migration.

    Those non-EU rates surprise me, but one imagines if you drill into the data the issue is overwhelmingly immigrants from poorer Muslim communities, and Somalis.

    Other groups, like West Africans, will probably overperform.
    We voted leave because otherwise Turkish (Muslims) were coming.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Charles said:

    Wouldn’t that mess up the Remainers plans though...

    1. Jezza doing something which take priority over their other plans
    2. Unlikely (?) to be successful - in which case time is wasted and Boris strengthened
    3. If successful need to find a new PM
    4. Corbyn goes first (?) unlikely to be successful - if not he has wasted time
    5. If no alternative found then an election where Boris sets the date (can an election be called while Parliament is prorogued it does it need to wait until it returns to move a writ or whatever?)
    But if the EU don't enforce 31 October date, then we remain indefinitely.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    eek said:

    We voted leave because otherwise Turkish (Muslims) were coming.
    You claim to know exactly what drove each leave voters decision?

    Some arrogance or delusion on display here

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Hamiltonace said he was in medical sector and reckoned it was going to be problematic for his business
    a lot of what @hamiltonace published was rubbish though, especially around regulations.

    He's in a very specific segment of medical consumables, IIRC


  • I'm having a Twitter debate with OGH. Why can't we just repeal the FTPA? Surely it's in the interest of both sides
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    Floater said:

    You claim to know exactly what drove each leave voters decision?

    Some arrogance or delusion on display here

    No just mentioning a poster that was probably a factor...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are the SNP and PC in favour of an election as soon as possible?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    There speaks a real Tory
    Towns and cities develop where they do because of reasons.

    If that reason is no longer relevant (e.g. a closed coal mine) then the community needs to find a new sense of purpose. That could be new industries, or as a commuter town or something else. But if it doesn't have a purpose when why insist that it continues to exist?

    [yes, this is the same philosophical argument that makes sense for the dissolution of the Union if one of the consistent parts decides that it no longer has merit]
  • HYUFD said:

    A majority of voters voted for Brexit, a majority have not voted for Corbyn
    1.8% voted for no deal. 40% voted for Corbyns Labour.

    Why do you keep conflating Brexit with no deal? The vast majority of the country can accept Brexit but not no deal. The government is choosing not to deliver it.
This discussion has been closed.