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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets
Write about what you know, they say. So I don’t normally write about American politics, about which I don’t pretend to have any special understanding. I’ll happily bet on it though. I’m going to break my habit now, to consider four related markets on Betfair and their interrelationship, to see if I can find some relative value.
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I’d also note that there tends to be an anomaly between the Democratic Nominee market, and the less active Nominee (both Republican and Democratic) market, and I’ve managed to get considerably better implied odds on Warren in the latter a couple of times.
One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.
A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."
https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html
Sad news of Hubert's death in the F2 race following F1 qualifying yesterday. RIP.
I very rarely bet on multiples, but it's interesting to consider related contingencies. I did back Harris a while ago, (26 for candidacy, 67 for presidency) as tipped by some chap called *checks notes* Mike Smithson. Interesting article, Mr. Meeks.
Incidentally, thanks to the kind words of those who left them yesterday. Mildly surprised a comparison to the Battle of Ipsus went down so well. (Mr. Rook, getting Issus and Ipsus confused, given that happened within decades of one another, involved many of the same people, and are almost identical as words, is eminently understandable).
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167928278402748417
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
Betting PostF1: got to do some stuff which slightly delays putting up the pre-race ramble, but here are the tips.
I'm splitting one stake for equal profits and backing Bottas at 7 and Hamilton at 8 to not be classified. There's always the risk of a lap 1 pileup, and Mercedes also has a chance for engine explosions. On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).
I've also backed Hamilton at 2.2 to beat Vettel. They were practically identical in qualifying and the Mercedes may be kinder to its tyres than the Ferrari, which seems to chew them up.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1168040528182513665?s=20
Whatever caused them to die younger may well also be responsible for the Brexit vote, but will not be cured by Brexit, that's the tragedy of it.
Mercedes apparently were not using their fastest engine qualifying modes, as a safety precaution, so they ought to be closer to Ferrari in the race.
I’d want longer odds on a Mercedes DNF.
Immediate Brexit chaos, though not impossible, has gained a rhetorical force which the reality doesn’t justify.
Like surbiton, I don’t expect things to improve thereafter.
If Johnson witholds the payment the EU might decide to make life difficult from their end, and the French do like a man with a clipboard.
Border controls on traffic going into the EU across the Channel will be applied in full on day 1, unless something changes.
The sheep will be burnt.
And although somewhat consumed by Brexit, I have to say interesting header by Alastair about something different.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/09/belgium-pre-race-2019.html
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1167909493276995586?s=20
2019 4/9
2020 5/2
2021 33/1
2022 or later 16/1
1. Tariffs. A 10% tariff on British cars makes them unprofitable. 40% on sheep meat
2. Border checks and delays. Particularly intense for fresh food.
3. Extra red tape to handle customs etc.
4. Regulation. You are only compliant if the other party says you are. Absent agreement your product is illegal in the target market.
This is formidable set of barriers. I expect exports to be substantially throttled to the EU with knock on effects to the domestic economy. No Deal isn't sustainable beyond a few weeks, I think.
I expect the Tories to win a GE too. Which they deserve - not as a reward for their behaviour but so that they can be accountable for what they are doing and so that they can sort out all the “what then?” questions they - and their supporters - are singularly failing to answer now.
I also expect any Parliamentary attempts to stop a No Deal exit to fail. I have long expected No Deal to happen, ever since March in fact when I wrote a header saying that the ERG had won (and was poo-poohed by many on here for saying so).
On topic, an interesting header, thank you @AlistairM. I have many on young Mr Buttigieg. Doesn’t look as if I will be collecting
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/09/johnsons-real-plan-to-get-a-deal-and-stuff-the-spartans.html
... This was before the shadow of Brexit, though, and the advent of the Farage/Cummings/Johnson axis – of dark money and Facebook falsehoods; of Little England and Waterloo and Trafalgar. The political casualties of Brexit are propped up like corpses at an Irish wake in the pubs around Westminster and now the contagion has reached Scotland.
Davidson’s personal attributes secured a good press in Scotland which often bordered on the fawning and this helped deflect a more inconvenient reality: in opposition at Holyrood she and her party were simply devoid of anything resembling a coherent political strategy. She was a far more formidable debating adversary for Nicola Sturgeon than anyone in Scottish Labour but the depth and complexity of her portfolio of ideas ranged from saying No to a second independence referendum to calling the first one nasty and divisive.
Beyond this, there was very little of substance...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/01/farewell-ruth-davidson-and-the-tory-revival-whats-next-for-scotland
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1168070556056469504?s=20
Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.
Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.
Quangos gone wrong.
'Yes, bring it on'
So when Boris calls for a GE he will get his two third support
In the unlikely event Yang is nominated, he'd have tremendous momentum - what an underdog story to come through from here and grab the nomination! He'd also presumably have demonstrated political skills to cut through a crowded field (which we've not really seen yet but would have seen if he's nominated).
In the unlikely event Clinton gets it, it would presumably be off the back of a brokered convention following a painful nomination process. That'd be a bad place for the Democrats to be.
Harris and Warren being around 50% if nominated feels about right. It wouldn't be massively surprising to see either get the nod, so neither would necessarily have massive momentum. Trump is a good campaigner, the economy will probably hold together okay (albeit he's probably made an error engineering a boom for the midterms rather than his own re-election). Biden and Sanders' slightly better odds if nominated probably reflect a belief (which sadly I suspect is correct) that owning a Y chromosome is worth a point or two at a presidential election in the US.
1) Those returning to the continent empty.
2) Sealed cargos from the Republic of Ireland. These are SM compatible and tariff free, merely in transit via the UK.
I wouldn't expect the queues in Dover to be too bad, as cargos without documentation will simply be refused by hauliers. They will wait in depots rather than Kentish lorry parks.
I would suggest that if Boris is defeated this week by conservative mps voting against their government, those mps may well be deselected and I would expect him to call a GE, and form a pact with Farage for TBP to supply their top candidates into the deselected mps seats
Maybe nonsense but most everything is just now
Limited May/Hammond level thinking - file in the bin as analysis.
Boris Johnson’s No Deal government has only a debatable majority in the HoC, that House in the past has voted AGAINST No Deal.
Johnson does not hold the absolute majority of opinion in the country, either.
In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.
Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.
From https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws
"Funding
The PWSCG is mainly funded by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) on behalf of Government. In addition, the Civil Aviation Authority pays towards the service to underpin its services for UK and global aviation. Some research and development projects receive additional funding from other sources, including the EU. The current total PWSCG funding is approximately £83 million p.a."
I am not convinced that there is much arbitrage between these markets. Harris would have a lower chance as POTUS than Dem candidate, as being black and of hindu extraction will not play well in the flyover states, even if Dems are happy with it.
There is also the issue of campaign energy and momentum, and the one showing that is Warren. At some point Sanders will drop out and back her. I am on her for nominee, and the POTUS price is about right.
It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.
As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.
Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.
Tyndall diplomacy at work - thank goodness you're not in a position of power.
You are basically making Boris’s category error except in his case it is deliberate attempt to divide the country into “us” and “them”. Not sure what your excuse is.