politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

95 % of containers exported fro the ROI either go to or through the Uk. Hold up trade at Dover and the French stuff the Irish.

No, as they originate in the EU, ROI cargos do not need customs documents or approval at French ports. They can be fast tracked past any queue.

Not if we decide not to let them.

Ah - good idea! Let's blockade Irish traffic.

Tyndall diplomacy at work - thank goodness you're not in a position of power.

If they choose to do it first at our ports then we should respond in kind. Why help facilitate EU trade through our ports if they are holding up our trade?

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking on the 45 minute drive home what on earth you could do there.

I have a slight personal obsession with economic geography.

There seems almost a conspiracy to keep much of Britain poor, due to a toxic combination of gross over centralisation, short-term thinking, knee-jerk provincialism, and lazy, antiquated thinking from the 1980s.

Neither left nor right have a fucking clue what to do about the DOZENS of Hartlepools around the country.

It’s a miserable waste of human capital, ie people’s LIVES.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

95 % of containers exported fro the ROI either go to or through the Uk. Hold up trade at Dover and the French stuff the Irish.

No, as they originate in the EU, ROI cargos do not need customs documents or approval at French ports. They can be fast tracked past any queue.

Not if we decide not to let them.

Ah - good idea! Let's blockade Irish traffic.

Tyndall diplomacy at work - thank goodness you're not in a position of power.

If they choose to do it first at our ports then we should respond in kind. Why help facilitate EU trade through our ports if they are holding up our trade?

The difference of course being, we would have chosen to make ourselves a 3rd country, thus providing the EU with a legitimate reason to apply full checks.

As it happens, I think it's a moot point, as Irish traffic would likely get held up anyway in the general queuing at our ports.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

Link / Source?

Have I missed something? Has anyone associated with the government suggested a 17th October GE?

No and McDonnell did not suggest a date

No I did I forgot that Johnson gets to set the date I just assumed a five week run in

Benpointer said:

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

It is a crazy situation that the met office, which is mostly government funded, is not expected to provide the UK public with weather via the most easy to access platform, which is the BBC.

Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.

Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government departments or quangos). If they negotiate a cut-price contract with one customer all the other customers will want the same improved deal.

In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

The BBC's forecasts have been very poor since they switched from the Met Office. A great example of how market forces don't always work for the poplulation at large.

How would anybody know?

For years I've been an advocate of Forecasters publishing their results, preferable together with the next forecast. Why not? Racing tipsters publish theirs and even Tipping Lines normally 'proof' their suggestions to the Racing Post before the off.

What use is any forecasting outfit that doesn't make results readily available? Without them they have all the credibility of Astrologers.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

95 % of containers exported fro the ROI either go to or through the Uk. Hold up trade at Dover and the French stuff the Irish.

No, as they originate in the EU, ROI cargos do not need customs documents or approval at French ports. They can be fast tracked past any queue.

Not if we decide not to let them.

Ah - good idea! Let's blockade Irish traffic.

Tyndall diplomacy at work - thank goodness you're not in a position of power.

If they choose to do it first at our ports then we should respond in kind. Why help facilitate EU trade through our ports if they are holding up our trade?

Are you suggesting that we apply these customs at Holyhead, or introduce customs at departure?

Sealed Irish cargos in transit, simply don't need customs approval at either end.

It is not the EU that are applying these barriers, it is the British No Dealers.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

It is a crazy situation that the met office, which is mostly government funded, is not expected to provide the UK public with weather via the most easy to access platform, which is the BBC.

Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.

Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government departments or quangos). If they negotiate a cut-price contract with one customer all the other customers will want the same improved deal.

In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

The BBC's forecasts have been very poor since they switched from the Met Office. A great example of how market forces don't always work for the poplulation at large.

How would anybody know?

For years I've been an advocate of Forecasters publishing their results, preferable together with the next forecast. Why not? Racing tipsters publish theirs and even Tipping Lines normally 'proof' their suggestions to the Racing Post before the off.

What use is any forecasting outfit that doesn't make results readily available? Without them they have all the credibility of Astrologers.

Don't be silly - where's the profit and therefore wealth creation accumulation in that?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On a GONU how could it be supported by the public if it consists only of remainers

The choice is between No Dealers and everyone else.

Boris Johnson’s No Deal government has only a debatable majority in the HoC, that House in the past has voted AGAINST No Deal.

Johnson does not hold the absolute majority of opinion in the country, either.

Of course but a GONU made up of remainers is not a GONU

Is Corbyn a Remainer?

You are basically making Boris’s category error except in his case it is deliberate attempt to divide the country into “us” and “them”. Not sure what your excuse is.

Corbyn will not head a GONU

So what?
He would have to be inside one, wouldn’t he?
There would be many “Brexit but not No Deal Brexiters” inside any feasible GONU.

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Goodman: Johnson’s real plan. To get a deal – and stuff the Spartans.

Your link is broken.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/09/johnsons-real-plan-to-get-a-deal-and-stuff-the-spartans.html

Seems like wishful thinking to me. Giving the Spartans what they want is more popular with the tory base, and with an election likely imminent thsr means pursuing what they want is the best course from a party perspective.

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking on the 45 minute drive home what on earth you could do there.

I have a slight personal obsession with economic geography.

There seems almost a conspiracy to keep much of Britain poor, due to a toxic combination of gross over centralisation, short-term thinking, knee-jerk provincialism, and lazy, antiquated thinking from the 1980s.

Neither left nor right have a fucking clue what to do about the DOZENS of Hartlepools around the country.

It’s a miserable waste of human capital, ie people’s LIVES.

Historically, a lot of these post industrial towns would have become ghost towns, unless they reinvented themselves with new industries.

The combination of low value jobs, welfare dependency, obesity, smoking and drugs is why Hartlepool and similar towns have reducing prospects and life expectancy.

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

...Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government departments or quangos). If they negotiate a cut-price contract with one customer all the other customers will want the same improved deal.

In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

Am I missing something?

From https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws

"Funding
The PWSCG is mainly funded by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) on behalf of Government. In addition, the Civil Aviation Authority pays towards the service to underpin its services for UK and global aviation. Some research and development projects receive additional funding from other sources, including the EU. The current total PWSCG funding is approximately £83 million p.a."

It's a contract. The money is handed over in return for specific services delivered. Any increase/decrease in funding is tied to a change in services provided.

In which case the govt should make it a requirement of those contracts that the public have easy access to met office data via either BBC or media channels with equivalent reach.

It's the trading fund model that the government have chosen. The idea is that the Met Office make a profit on services delivered to private/non-central government customers and this profit subsidises the infrastructure and development work, so reducing the cost to the Exchequer of the Met Office.

A clause like you suggest destroys the funding model. (Though there are a variety of requirements for public data access and public reach of forecasts in the PWS contract, they don't extend to giving the BBC forecasts at below cost price).

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking after the 45 minute drive there what on earth you could do there.

The birdwatchinng is good.....

Bird watching doesn't provide many jobs though. Also it's better to head to Saltholme / Seal Sands where the gaps between the inlet pipes provide larger green spaces..

Peter_the_Punter said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking on the 45 minute drive home what on earth you could do there.

I have a slight personal obsession with economic geography.

There seems almost a conspiracy to keep much of Britain poor, due to a toxic combination of gross over centralisation, short-term thinking, knee-jerk provincialism, and lazy, antiquated thinking from the 1980s.

Neither left nor right have a fucking clue what to do about the DOZENS of Hartlepools around the country.

It’s a miserable waste of human capital, ie people’s LIVES.

If you've ever been to Jaywick, you can understand why people there might vote UKIP, or anything but Labour & Conservative.

Absolutely. Neither have any opinion on or interest in Jaywick whatsoever.

(I haven’t been).

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

It is a crazy situation that the met office, which is mostly government funded, is not expected to provide the UK public with weather via the most easy to access platform, which is the BBC.

Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.

Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government departments or quangos). If they negotiate a cut-price contract with one customer all the other customers will want the same improved deal.

In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

The BBC's forecasts have been very poor since they switched from the Met Office. A great example of how market forces don't always work for the poplulation at large.

How would anybody know?

For years I've been an advocate of Forecasters publishing their results, preferable together with the next forecast. Why not? Racing tipsters publish theirs and even Tipping Lines normally 'proof' their suggestions to the Racing Post before the off.

What use is any forecasting outfit that doesn't make results readily available? Without them they have all the credibility of Astrologers.

There is loads of information about forecast accuracy.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On a GONU how could it be supported by the public if it consists only of remainers

Whilst I would like it to happen it should not be called a GONU, it is clearly anything but. National unity is not possible for at least the next few years, mainly thanks to Brexit.

Nope. Mainly thanks to those who refused to accept Brexit

There are not many at all who refuse to accept Brexit. The 48% just want to have some input into what Brexit is delivered.

With respect I do not agree. There are a vast number who want to stop brexit

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/which-of-the-following-options-would-you-prefer-if-no-new-brexit-deal-is-agreed-by-the-31st-october/

Support for revoke (as a preference) is around 20-25%. Of those preferences many must be open to alternatives beyond their first preference.

I think people strongly against any Brext at all is probably in the 10-15% range.

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking on the 45 minute drive home what on earth you could do there.

I have a slight personal obsession with economic geography.

There seems almost a conspiracy to keep much of Britain poor, due to a toxic combination of gross over centralisation, short-term thinking, knee-jerk provincialism, and lazy, antiquated thinking from the 1980s.

Neither left nor right have a fucking clue what to do about the DOZENS of Hartlepools around the country.

It’s a miserable waste of human capital, ie people’s LIVES.

Historically, a lot of these post industrial towns would have become ghost towns, unless they reinvented themselves with new industries.

The combination of low value jobs, welfare dependency, obesity, smoking and drugs is why Hartlepool and similar towns have reducing prospects and life expectancy.

Yep. A one and half year drop in life expectancy in less than ten years ought to shock the shit out of any liberal democracy. But it won’t, because: Hartlepool.

The left will blame austerity.
The right will say Hartlepool just needs to “get on its bike”, and more deregulation.

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking on the 45 minute drive home what on earth you could do there.

I have a slight personal obsession with economic geography.

There seems almost a conspiracy to keep much of Britain poor, due to a toxic combination of gross over centralisation, short-term thinking, knee-jerk provincialism, and lazy, antiquated thinking from the 1980s.

Neither left nor right have a fucking clue what to do about the DOZENS of Hartlepools around the country.

It’s a miserable waste of human capital, ie people’s LIVES.

Historically, a lot of these post industrial towns would have become ghost towns, unless they reinvented themselves with new industries.

The combination of low value jobs, welfare dependency, obesity, smoking and drugs is why Hartlepool and similar towns have reducing prospects and life expectancy.

The BBC filmed a documentary about Hartlepool's decline in 1963:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p053r2q1/waiting-for-work

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On a GONU how could it be supported by the public if it consists only of remainers

Whilst I would like it to happen it should not be called a GONU, it is clearly anything but. National unity is not possible for at least the next few years, mainly thanks to Brexit.

Nope. Mainly thanks to those who refused to accept Brexit

There are not many at all who refuse to accept Brexit. The 48% just want to have some input into what Brexit is delivered.

Not in the House of Commons they don't. They want to block it. End of.

Boris does, by forcing others to arrange another extension for him to save face with the Daily Express, yes that is true.

If a govt went for either soft Brexit or a 2nd referendum parliament would be fine with it.

It didn't come much softer than May's Brexit. And that got voted down three times.....

The sales person along with the ERG was to blame for that as you well know.

I think it is fair to call the transition period of May's Brexit soft, but the future relationship was sold as hard Brexit, hence the lack of support from other parties.

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

He’s quite right.

It’s clear that the way to beat the tyrant Johnson is to keep him in power and force him to delay Brexit.

Theresify him.

Gardenwalker said:

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking on the 45 minute drive home what on earth you could do there.

I have a slight personal obsession with economic geography.

There seems almost a conspiracy to keep much of Britain poor, due to a toxic combination of gross over centralisation, short-term thinking, knee-jerk provincialism, and lazy, antiquated thinking from the 1980s.

Neither left nor right have a fucking clue what to do about the DOZENS of Hartlepools around the country.

It’s a miserable waste of human capital, ie people’s LIVES.

Historically, a lot of these post industrial towns would have become ghost towns, unless they reinvented themselves with new industries.

The combination of low value jobs, welfare dependency, obesity, smoking and drugs is why Hartlepool and similar towns have reducing prospects and life expectancy.

Yep. A one and half year drop in life expectancy in less than ten years ought to shock the shit out of any liberal democracy. But it won’t, because: Hartlepool.

The left will blame austerity.
The right will say Hartlepool just needs to “get on its bike”, and more deregulation.

And hartlepool will blame east European gipsies

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

What's funny about that? It would scupper Boris' plan since they could very quickly prevent no deal while making clear theyd vote for an election the next day, so accusations of being frit would not stick. If Boris thinks hed win he can bring it on even when no deal is not happening.

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

Is he just running his own policy these days? He said he'd campaign against a Corbyn Brexit deal the other day.

Nope it's policy.

1) A minimum of an extension or No No Deal to ensure Boris can't claim we are leaving on October 31st.
2) A second referendum where all MPs can campaign for either Revoke / Remain or Labours Brexit plan. Those 2 options being the only things on offer.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

Hartlepool IS reinventing itself. It just takes a long time and a lot of people suffer.

The regeneration around the marina is lovely.

Improved public spaces are great, but they don't often herald a big change in economic fortunes.

Quite right.
At worst it’s displacement activity.

But local authorities don’t have the power to do much. The very least they should do is to make sure their public spaces are attractive, welcoming guests and safe. Most local authorities even fail at that.

Foxy said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

95 % of containers exported fro the ROI either go to or through the Uk. Hold up trade at Dover and the French stuff the Irish.

No, as they originate in the EU, ROI cargos do not need customs documents or approval at French ports. They can be fast tracked past any queue.

Not if we decide not to let them.

Ah - good idea! Let's blockade Irish traffic.

Tyndall diplomacy at work - thank goodness you're not in a position of power.

If they choose to do it first at our ports then we should respond in kind. Why help facilitate EU trade through our ports if they are holding up our trade?

Are you suggesting that we apply these customs at Holyhead, or introduce customs at departure?

Sealed Irish cargos in transit, simply don't need customs approval at either end.

It is not the EU that are applying these barriers, it is the British No Dealers.

It will just be a first come first served queue. Irish and British trucks mixed up.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

Hartlepool IS reinventing itself. It just takes a long time and a lot of people suffer.

The regeneration around the marina is lovely.

Improved public spaces are great, but they don't often herald a big change in economic fortunes.

Of course not but they do provide jobs, they do encourage visitors, and they encourage people like doctors and business owners to actually live in the town.

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

So bloody obvious, I’ve been saying this ever since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister.

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1168086972667219968?s=21

Imagine Corbyn had shut down parliament to try to ram through something it was opposed to, Hodges would totally be saying the same thing, right?

TGOHF said:

kle4 said:

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

What's funny about that? It would scupper Boris' plan since they could very quickly prevent no deal while making clear theyd vote for an election the next day, so accusations of being frit would not stick. If Boris thinks hed win he can bring it on even when no deal is not happening.

Not what JMcD was saying 30 mins ago..

Think back to what JMcD actually side - he said "Bring It On" which could mean bring the request on so that things can finally start.

TGOHF said:

kle4 said:

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

What's funny about that? It would scupper Boris' plan since they could very quickly prevent no deal while making clear theyd vote for an election the next day, so accusations of being frit would not stick. If Boris thinks hed win he can bring it on even when no deal is not happening.

Not what JMcD was saying 30 mins ago..

Yes but when they bring it on doesnt matter.

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

How many 'commuter resorts' do you think Newcastle needs ?

Not that Newcastle itself lacks for run down shithole estates.

Sure.
It’s not ideal.
The North East is the poorest region in England, I think.

But Newcastle (and Durham) are the only two feasible hubs for real productive growth.

Real productive growth in what ?

Red brick universities and posho restaurants perhaps ?

We need an economy which allows people to contribute and create wealth throughout the socioeconomic scale.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On a GONU how could it be supported by the public if it consists only of remainers

The choice is between No Dealers and everyone else.

Boris Johnson’s No Deal government has only a debatable majority in the HoC, that House in the past has voted AGAINST No Deal.

Johnson does not hold the absolute majority of opinion in the country, either.

Of course but a GONU made up of remainers is not a GONU

Is Corbyn a Remainer?

You are basically making Boris’s category error except in his case it is deliberate attempt to divide the country into “us” and “them”. Not sure what your excuse is.

Corbyn will not head a GONU

It will be No Deal and then a Labour minority government led by Corbyn G. We do not want a Pinochet/Franco government here.

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

How many 'commuter resorts' do you think Newcastle needs ?

Not that Newcastle itself lacks for run down shithole estates.

Sure.
It’s not ideal.
The North East is the poorest region in England, I think.

But Newcastle (and Durham) are the only two feasible hubs for real productive growth.

Real productive growth in what ?

Red brick universities and posho restaurants perhaps ?

We need an economy which allows people to contribute and create wealth throughout the socioeconomic scale.

Do you know anything about the North East? Newcastle and Durham are far from just red brick universities and posho restaurants. In fact Newcastle has only 1 Michelin Star restaurant.

Greater Newcastle and Greater Durham have a huge chunk of all the area's manufacturing, R&D, warehousing and shopping infrastructure as well as all of the area's art, culture and music scene.

kle4 said:

eek said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

Is he just running his own policy these days? He said he'd campaign against a Corbyn Brexit deal the other day.

Nope it's policy.

1) A minimum of an extension or No No Deal to ensure Boris can't claim we are leaving on October 31st.
2) A second referendum where all MPs can campaign for either Revoke / Remain or Labours Brexit plan. Those 2 options being the only things on offer.

He could at least wait to see the amazing Brexit deal Corbyn will secure before making his decision, whilst still saying hes minded to back remain.

Labour need to focus on 2 things at once, keeping Remain seats in London happy and not upsetting Leave seats up North too much.

Keir having a safe London seat can focus on attracting remain voters. Others will focus on the other side of the equation.

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

So bloody obvious, I’ve been saying this ever since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister.

Yes same here.

Ishmael_Z said:

Benpointer said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

It is a crazy situation that the met office, which is mostly government funded, is not expected to provide the UK public with weather via the most easy to access platform, which is the BBC.

Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.

Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government depctly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

The BBC's forecasts have been very poor since they switched from the Met Office. A great example of how market forces don't always work for the poplulation at large.

How would anybody know?

For years I've been an advocate of Forecasters publishing their results, preferable together with the next forecast. Why not? Racing tipsters publish theirs and even Tipping Lines normally 'proof' their suggestions to the Racing Post before the off.

What use is any forecasting outfit that doesn't make results readily available? Without them they have all the credibility of Astrologers.

Don't be silly - where's the profit and therefore wealth creation accumulation in that?

Moaning and amnesiac minnies, all of you. The three greatest improvements of life in the UK in my lifetime have been (in this order) decriminalising gays, the massive reduction in smoking and the huge increase in the accuracy of weather forecasting.

Where do you get the weather bit from? I've tried to find hard data but with little success.

What little information I have found suggests that forecasting has improved but not by a huge amount, and only fairly recently.

Would appreciate a citation if you have one.

Thanks.

eek said:

kle4 said:

eek said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

Is he just running his own policy these days? He said he'd campaign against a Corbyn Brexit deal the other day.

Nope it's policy.

1) A minimum of an extension or No No Deal to ensure Boris can't claim we are leaving on October 31st.
2) A second referendum where all MPs can campaign for either Revoke / Remain or Labours Brexit plan. Those 2 options being the only things on offer.

He could at least wait to see the amazing Brexit deal Corbyn will secure before making his decision, whilst still saying hes minded to back remain.

Labour need to focus on 2 things at once, keeping Remain seats in London happy and not upsetting Leave seats up North too much.

Keir having a safe London seat can focus on attracting remain voters. Others will focus on the other side of the equation.

Yes I know, and it makes tactical sense, but at the cost of their official policy technically making sense but not really when so many openly pre determine what theyd do, making the policy look tissue thin.

Gallowgate said:

eek said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

Hartlepool IS reinventing itself. It just takes a long time and a lot of people suffer.

The regeneration around the marina is lovely.

Improved public spaces are great, but they don't often herald a big change in economic fortunes.

Of course not but they do provide jobs, they do encourage visitors, and they encourage people like doctors and business owners to actually live in the town.

One part of Hartlepool's weakness is that Wynyard is right next door and given that and a Sainsburys delivery service you don't need to visit Hartlepool ever

(I say Sainsburys as Ocado don't deliver in the North East and the nearest Waitrose is in Newcastle City Centre).

The humanity!

Ilford lost a Toys R Us about 18 months ago - and its replacement opened yesterday: a brand new B & M discount shop!!

another_richard said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

Hartlepool IS reinventing itself. It just takes a long time and a lot of people suffer.

The regeneration around the marina is lovely.

Improved public spaces are great, but they don't often herald a big change in economic fortunes.

Of course not but they do provide jobs, they do encourage visitors, and they encourage people like doctors and business owners to actually live in the town.

Traditionally deprived towns with their cheap housing can be a very good place to live if you have some money.

Especially those which have seen a bit of regeneration and have good communications.

The issue for all Seaside towns is communications. While I can see how nice they are to live in, you are adding 40 minutes+ to each leg of a journey.

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

How many 'commuter resorts' do you think Newcastle needs ?

Not that Newcastle itself lacks for run down shithole estates.

Sure.
It’s not ideal.
The North East is the poorest region in England, I think.

But Newcastle (and Durham) are the only two feasible hubs for real productive growth.

Real productive growth in what ?

Red brick universities and posho restaurants perhaps ?

We need an economy which allows people to contribute and create wealth throughout the socioeconomic scale.

Of course we do, but in the modern post digital economy, growth is developed in knowledge clusters. We need to ensure those clusters can develop (in metros, and adjacent to research universities) AND find a way to spread the wealth across the socioeconomic scale.

Britain is poor at both.

But you need to create the wealth first.

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking on the 45 minute drive home what on earth you could do there.

I have a slight personal obsession with economic geography.

There seems almost a conspiracy to keep much of Britain poor, due to a toxic combination of gross over centralisation, short-term thinking, knee-jerk provincialism, and lazy, antiquated thinking from the 1980s.

Neither left nor right have a fucking clue what to do about the DOZENS of Hartlepools around the country.

It’s a miserable waste of human capital, ie people’s LIVES.

Historically, a lot of these post industrial towns would have become ghost towns, unless they reinvented themselves with new industries.

The combination of low value jobs, welfare dependency, obesity, smoking and drugs is why Hartlepool and similar towns have reducing prospects and life expectancy.

The unfortunate fact is that there is always going to be people in socioeconomic groups D and E with low levels of ability, skills and education.

And being a high paying country with a non-contributory welfare system means we are importing even more such people.

I don't think either part of that is correct. There are many other countries in Europe with a far shorter tail of the unproductive and uneducated. The reasons why we are different are I suspect complex and tied into our history of industrialisation and deindustrialization, both of which were particularly brutal. I imagine with some effort we could do something about it.

Also, I believe that the data tell us we are disproportionately importing the young, educated and productive from Europe. The kind of people who would be sitting on their arse in their equivalent of Hartlepool smoking tabs are probably still sitting on their arse in their equivalent of Hartlepool smoking tabs.

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

What's funny about that? It would scupper Boris' plan since they could very quickly prevent no deal while making clear theyd vote for an election the next day, so accusations of being frit would not stick. If Boris thinks hed win he can bring it on even when no deal is not happening.

It is precisely what Boris wants them to do. He is desperate for the extension but cannot ask for it himself, that is the whole point of the halfway prorogation.

For the country, asking for an extension before an election is the right thing for the remain alliance.

For Labour, it would be better to have the only way to stop no deal being by voting in Labour.

Corbyn has been as utterly cynical as Johnson, so may actually prefer the GE without an extension, although I would expect the likes of Starmer and Thornberry to be furious if that is the path he chooses.

Once Brexit is extended or anti no deal legislation is implemented, Farage has the excuse he needs to stand in every seat, portray Boris as letting no deal be stopped because he wasn't a true enough believer, and hoover up the most die-hard leave vote. It would destroy the tories's chance of a majority.

Gallowgate said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

How many 'commuter resorts' do you think Newcastle needs ?

Not that Newcastle itself lacks for run down shithole estates.

Sure.
It’s not ideal.
The North East is the poorest region in England, I think.

But Newcastle (and Durham) are the only two feasible hubs for real productive growth.

Real productive growth in what ?

Red brick universities and posho restaurants perhaps ?

We need an economy which allows people to contribute and create wealth throughout the socioeconomic scale.

Do you know anything about the North East? Newcastle and Durham are far from just red brick universities and posho restaurants. In fact Newcastle has only 1 Michelin Star restaurant.

Greater Newcastle and Greater Durham have a huge chunk of all the area's manufacturing, R&D, warehousing and shopping infrastructure as well as all of the area's art, culture and music scene.

And Durham is a big tourism centre as well.

But how much can any of that be expanded and is it even a good idea to concentrate the regions economic activity even more, to turn all the other places into satellite towns and have even more people commute ?

justin124 said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

Lol Labour - “bring it errr off..”

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168080927685259266?s=21

So bloody obvious, I’ve been saying this ever since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister.

But how do they force it? Boris Just has to sit on his hands and wait until they VONC him. Then the date is in his gift. He’s never going to agree an extension.

It is not in his gift if the Commons is willing to install an alternative PM.

That’s the only path open to them. Jeremy to lay the motion Tuesday?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

95 % of containers exported fro the ROI either go to or through the Uk. Hold up trade at Dover and the French stuff the Irish.

No, as they originate in the EU, ROI cargos do not need customs documents or approval at French ports. They can be fast tracked past any queue.

Not if we decide not to let them.

Ah - good idea! Let's blockade Irish traffic.

Tyndall diplomacy at work - thank goodness you're not in a position of power.

If they choose to do it first at our ports then we should respond in kind. Why help facilitate EU trade through our ports if they are holding up our trade?

Are you suggesting that we apply these customs at Holyhead, or introduce customs at departure?

Sealed Irish cargos in transit, simply don't need customs approval at either end.

It is not the EU that are applying these barriers, it is the British No Dealers.

Wrong as I pointed out to Ben.

The HMRC are going to not do import checks at Holyhead, as they have announced. There are no exit checks. French Customs can do as they please, but I suspect will be happy with sealed goods from ROI, so the ferry companies will be too.

I am not clear where you intend to apply your checks.

Later though, as church gathering.