politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit, the proroguing of parliament and the legal battle ahea
Comments
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I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise0
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Patience, padawan, patience.....Benpointer said:
Why doesn't he just call a GE then?HYUFD said:
Labour Leave seats, of which he will take about 30 to 40 on the latest polling (though he will still hold up to half the Tory seats in Scotland too anyway)El_Capitano said:
Which is not an answer to the question "where does Boris make up those 12 seats which he needs for his majority".HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?0 -
I thought he was kicked out for exercising his democratic prerogative - like Heseltine.NickPalmer said:
Have you considered a career as a spin doctor? I believe Alastair Campbell has retired.HYUFD said:
So fewer voters oppose proroguing Parliament than even the 48% who voted Remain then and a majority of Tory and Leave voters back proroguing Parliament to enforce Brexit.FF43 said:
It seems to be. I think maybe smart arsed. The consensus undoubtedly is that MPs are a useless bunch. It's quite a step from there to thinking Johnson is right to get rid of them because he finds a functioning parliament inconvenient. People may not be able to spell "prorogue" or know what it means in constitutional terms. But they can smell a rat at fifty paces.AlastairMeeks said:
He wants the hornets buzzing. The aim is to hustle his opponents into a vote of no confidence.Richard_Tyndall said:What I don't understand in all of this us why Boris has kicked this hornets nest for the sake of 4 extra days without Parliament sitting.
Johnson seems to be following a 30% strategy, not even a 50% one.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1166717448118296576
Under FPTP Boris can win on that as a last restort with a split Remainer vote, while still trying for a technical solution for the Irish border first0 -
"I am not a diehard Remainer. I am an exceptional Remainer!"Benpointer said:
In @HUYFD's world there are no Remainers only diehard Remainers.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't lie like your hero Boris.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.
I'm not a diehard remainer, I've said we should respect the vote to leave, as was campaigned, and Boris Johnson and his fellow bunch of campaigners said we would Leave with a deal.0 -
He is a diehard line taker.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the highlights of this year was seeing Remain voting HYUFD tell leaving voting Stodge and Casino Royale that they are not proper Brexiteers.Benpointer said:
In @HUYFD's world there are no Remainers only diehard Remainers.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't lie like your hero Boris.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.
I'm not a diehard remainer, I've said we should respect the vote to leave, as was campaigned, and Boris Johnson and his fellow bunch of campaigners said we would Leave with a deal.
Once the Leader has declared the story of the day/week/whatever, that becomes the new truth.0 -
Noteworthy than a fair chunk of Leavers are not happy with Boris's manoeuvre. I suppose this would equate roughly to the chunk that want to leave but not on No Deal terms.AlastairMeeks said:
Note, YouGov did not use the correct but perhaps leading word “suspend” in their question.FF43 said:
It seems to be. I think maybe smart arsed. The consensus undoubtedly is that MPs are a useless bunch. It's quite a step from there to thinking Johnson is right to get rid of them because he finds a functioning parliament inconvenient. People may not be able to spell "prorogue" or know what it means in constitutional terms. But they can smell a rat at fifty paces.AlastairMeeks said:
He wants the hornets buzzing. The aim is to hustle his opponents into a vote of no confidence.Richard_Tyndall said:What I don't understand in all of this us why Boris has kicked this hornets nest for the sake of 4 extra days without Parliament sitting.
Johnson seems to be following a 30% strategy, not even a 50% one.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/11667174481182965760 -
You should be in the tower, Screaming, with some of the stuff you posted today. I was sure you account had been hacked. Or maybe your mind.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the highlights of this year was seeing Remain voting HYUFD tell leaving voting Stodge and Casino Royale that they are not proper Brexiteers.Benpointer said:
In @HUYFD's world there are no Remainers only diehard Remainers.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't lie like your hero Boris.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.
I'm not a diehard remainer, I've said we should respect the vote to leave, as was campaigned, and Boris Johnson and his fellow bunch of campaigners said we would Leave with a deal.
And OGH posts, don’t worry, leaving it all in safe hands of Screaming.
Looking back over twelve hours, any regrets?0 -
I'll put you down as a 'maybe,' Nichomar! 😀nichomar said:
It’s only ever about the future of the blue team, after all you have the full home and away kits you have invested you’re life in supporting them. They can’t tell you why they should survive but you just have to believe that it is their god given right to. They are lying shysters who are only interested in the future of the Conservative party and ensuring their venture capitalist backers continue to make money and the Uber rich can keep their off shore investments hidden from Financial Transparency regulations coming their n in 2020. This is the only reason they want brexit it has fuck all to do with the left behind it’s all about making more money for themselves.ydoethur said:
It's good to know come rain, shine or constitutional warfare, HYUFD will still valiantly put a very unconvincing spin on opinion polls.HYUFD said:
So fewer voters oppose proroguing Parliament than even the 48% who voted Remain then and a majority of Tory and Leave voters back proroguing Parliament to enforce Brexit.FF43 said:
It seems to be. I think maybe smart arsed. The consensus undoubtedly is that MPs are a useless bunch. It's quite a step from there to thinking Johnson is right to get rid of them because he finds a functioning parliament inconvenient. People may not be able to spell "prorogue" or know what it means in constitutional terms. But they can smell a rat at fifty paces.AlastairMeeks said:
He wants the hornets buzzing. The aim is to hustle his opponents into a vote of no confidence.Richard_Tyndall said:What I don't understand in all of this us why Boris has kicked this hornets nest for the sake of 4 extra days without Parliament sitting.
Johnson seems to be following a 30% strategy, not even a 50% one.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1166717448118296576
Under FPTP Boris can win on that as a last restort with a split Remainer vote, while still trying for a technical solution for the Irish border first
Some things never change!1 -
...Nigelb said:
He is a diehard line taker.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the highlights of this year was seeing Remain voting HYUFD tell leaving voting Stodge and Casino Royale that they are not proper Brexiteers.Benpointer said:
In @HUYFD's world there are no Remainers only diehard Remainers.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't lie like your hero Boris.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.
I'm not a diehard remainer, I've said we should respect the vote to leave, as was campaigned, and Boris Johnson and his fellow bunch of campaigners said we would Leave with a deal.
Once the Leader has declared the story of the day/week/whatever, that becomes the new truth.
I always voted at my party's call,
And I never thought of thinking for myself at all.0 -
Je ne regrette rien.egg said:You should be in the tower, Screaming, with some of the stuff you posted today. I was sure you account had been hacked. Or maybe your mind.
And OGH posts, don’t worry, leaving it all in safe hands of Screaming.
Looking back over twelve hours, any regrets?0 -
Where it has always been.egg said:
Where is that backstop alternative Boris?Benpointer said:
Welcome to PB Mr Egg.egg said:Eggcellent work, Boris.
In terms of firing up your base, firing up your opponents, and making Britain look even dafter in eyes of the world, we’ll done Boris.
In terms of passing off five weeks suspension at this crucial time as normal, day after your opponents vowed to use parliamentary time to thwart you, it is the lamest of cover stories.
But in terms of avoiding scrutiny on just about everything, and avoiding your opponents stopping no deal, it doesn’t (but then you don’t really want it to do you Cummings). Because this still leaves plenty of parliamentary time to scrutinise Boris negotiated deal, and block no deal if necessary. It was always wise to wait till October to do that anyway, to avoid team Boris calling you a traitor and saboteur of his negotiation.
Lets not rule out this as clever, Trumpesque, base mobilising smoke screen. Nothing more. There’s only one action top of Boris to do list, whats the alternate plan for the backstop.
The backstop is there to avoid a hard border across Ireland when UK and EU are operating different customs regimes. The hard border not only breaks treaties signed up to by the UK government, in practice it will become focal for protest, likely end up with British troops manning it. The previous PMs negotiation came up with this backstop, did not come up with an alternative even in face of mortal destruction. Boris governments official policy is not we don’t like the backstop so no backstop, the only honest policy or realistic negotiation is an alternative plan to be agreed with EU replacing proposed backstop, something Boris with customary oomph agreed to have settled in just 30 days last week, accepting it was up to Britain to provide a solution, and said he was "more than happy" with the "blistering timetable" Merkel had set out.
So Boris, the EU heads of state and negotiators, the British people, the whole world is waiting to hear your plan for alternative backstop, your timetable is ticking down.
If the opposition parties are smart they shouldn’t allow themselves to be distracted, this is the line they should keep the pressure up with. “why are you prevaricating day after day and chucking out Trumpesque chaff?” Where’s your backstop alternative?
Your point is a good one... where is that backstop alternative Boris?
Don’t let him get away with Trump style distractions.
Where is that backstop alternative Boris? Should be the only question in town.0 -
You Corbynostra damn wish he’s retired!NickPalmer said:
Have you considered a career as a spin doctor? I believe Alastair Campbell has retired.HYUFD said:
So fewer voters oppose proroguing Parliament than even the 48% who voted Remain then and a majority of Tory and Leave voters back proroguing Parliament to enforce Brexit.FF43 said:
It seems to be. I think maybe smart arsed. The consensus undoubtedly is that MPs are a useless bunch. It's quite a step from there to thinking Johnson is right to get rid of them because he finds a functioning parliament inconvenient. People may not be able to spell "prorogue" or know what it means in constitutional terms. But they can smell a rat at fifty paces.AlastairMeeks said:
He wants the hornets buzzing. The aim is to hustle his opponents into a vote of no confidence.Richard_Tyndall said:What I don't understand in all of this us why Boris has kicked this hornets nest for the sake of 4 extra days without Parliament sitting.
Johnson seems to be following a 30% strategy, not even a 50% one.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1166717448118296576
Under FPTP Boris can win on that as a last restort with a split Remainer vote, while still trying for a technical solution for the Irish border first0 -
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I wonder if Jez will be stupid enough to call a VoNC.0
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It’s up to Britain to provide a solution. Where’s that alternative backstop Boris?dixiedean said:
Where it has always been.egg said:
Where is that backstop alternative Boris?Benpointer said:
Welcome to PB Mr Egg.egg said:Eggcellent work, Boris.
In terms of firing up your base, firing up your opponents, and making Britain look even dafter in eyes of the world, we’ll done Boris.
In terms of passing off five weeks suspension at this crucial time as normal, day after your opponents vowed to use parliamentary time to thwart you, it is the lamest of cover stories.
But in terms of avoiding scrutiny on just about everything, and avoiding your opponents stopping no deal, it doesn’t (but then you don’t really want it to do you Cummings). Because this still leaves plenty of parliamentary time to scrutinise Boris negotiated deal, and block no deal if necessary. It was always wise to wait till October to do that anyway, to avoid team Boris calling you a traitor and saboteur of his negotiation.
Lets not rule out this as clever, Trumpesque, base mobilising smoke screen. Nothing more. There’s only one action top of Boris to do list, whats the alternate plan for the backstop.
The backstop is there to avoid a hard border across Ireland when UK and EU are operating different customs regimes. The hard border not only breaks treaties signed up to by the UK government, in practice it will become focal for protest, likely end up with British troops manning it. The previous PMs negotiation came up with this backstop, did not come up with an alternative even in face of mortal destruction. Boris governments official policy is not we don’t like the backstop so no backstop, the only honest policy or realistic negotiation is an alternative plan to be agreed with EU replacing proposed backstop, something Boris with customary oomph agreed to have settled in just 30 days last week, accepting it was up to Britain to provide a solution, and said he was "more than happy" with the "blistering timetable" Merkel had set out.
So Boris, the EU heads of state and negotiators, the British people, the whole world is waiting to hear your plan for alternative backstop, your timetable is ticking down.
If the opposition parties are smart they shouldn’t allow themselves to be distracted, this is the line they should keep the pressure up with. “why are you prevaricating day after day and chucking out Trumpesque chaff?” Where’s your backstop alternative?
Your point is a good one... where is that backstop alternative Boris?
Don’t let him get away with Trump style distractions.
Where is that backstop alternative Boris? Should be the only question in town.0 -
Respecting British sovereignty and keeping control of our borders is also part of the Tory brand as is respecting democratic votes, the Tories are not just a neoliberal partykle4 said:
Perhaps, but I always thought support for monarchy, the UK and stable finances was part of the Tory brand and apparently that is not true either.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.0 -
The figures are indeed similar.Peter_the_Punter said:
Noteworthy than a fair chunk of Leavers are not happy with Boris's manoeuvre. I suppose this would equate roughly to the chunk that want to leave but not on No Deal terms.AlastairMeeks said:
Note, YouGov did not use the correct but perhaps leading word “suspend” in their question.FF43 said:
It seems to be. I think maybe smart arsed. The consensus undoubtedly is that MPs are a useless bunch. It's quite a step from there to thinking Johnson is right to get rid of them because he finds a functioning parliament inconvenient. People may not be able to spell "prorogue" or know what it means in constitutional terms. But they can smell a rat at fifty paces.AlastairMeeks said:
He wants the hornets buzzing. The aim is to hustle his opponents into a vote of no confidence.Richard_Tyndall said:What I don't understand in all of this us why Boris has kicked this hornets nest for the sake of 4 extra days without Parliament sitting.
Johnson seems to be following a 30% strategy, not even a 50% one.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1166717448118296576
And do not equate to “17.4 million”.
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UKIP were on 25% in the run up to the 2015 election.HYUFD said:
The Tories can win with the Brexit Party on 10 to 15% as now and in 2015, they cannot win with the Brexit Party on 20 to 25% as was the case when May extendedThe_Taxman said:
I don't think Nigel Farage is going to disappear until he is put in a coffin. If it is not Brexit he is campaigning on, it will be immigration or law and order or something populist. He is a narcist and all the Brexit supporting media and the Tory party are doing is amplifying his message. I am amazed how some Tories go along with all this even though they may never have voted for Brexit or even support the positions the Tory party are taking on key policies....HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/poll-support-for-ukip-hits-record-high/0 -
There will surely be an uptick , to have a modern democracy with a written constitution.kle4 said:
Perhaps, but I always thought support for monarchy, the UK and stable finances was part of the Tory brand and apparently that is not true either.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.
Not that I expect any change.
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I do wonder if Boris can suspend Parliament now whether in a No Deal Brexit, he might try and abolish it! History has some notable figures that have marginalised democratic institutions because they did not like the output in them.
Indeed, I think Thatcher abolished the GLC because she objected to its policies, she also imposed rate capping and other draconian measures because she disagreed with the democratically elected individuals who occupied power in local authorities. The Tories have been the enemy of representative democracy in the recent past and have a history of manipulating the state to get the outcome the leadership of the time wished to implement.0 -
Why would he change a (sort of) winning formula by doing something smart?MaxPB said:I wonder if Jez will be stupid
More seriously, I think he's now out of further options. They only other things he can realistically do are either try to pass a bill to Revoke, in which case Labour Leavers go apeshit, or pass the deal, in which case the much larger number of Labour Remainers go apeshit, or pass control of the fight to Swinson, or resign.
All those options are unpalatable. VONC and heroic defeat it has to be.0 -
Conservative (slow, steady and responsible) was the Tory brand. It isn't anymore as a lot of former Tory members on here will tell you.HYUFD said:
Respecting British sovereignty and keeping control of our borders is also part of the Tory brand as is respecting democratic votes, the Tories are not just a neoliberal partykle4 said:
Perhaps, but I always thought support for monarchy, the UK and stable finances was part of the Tory brand and apparently that is not true either.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.
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On the latest YouGov the Tories would gain 36 Labour mainly Leave seats from Kensington, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme to Darlington, Weaver Vale and Rother Valleyeek said:
Really - which ones?HYUFD said:
Labour Leave seats, of which he will take about 30 to 40 on the latest polling (though he will still hold up to half the Tory seats in Scotland too anyway)El_Capitano said:
Which is not an answer to the question "where does Boris make up those 12 seats which he needs for his majority".HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative0 -
Everton LOL0
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I must admit I am having something of a mental break.
This is like a soap opera on the TV, it is not like the sort of politics one is a part of.0 -
The democratic constitution, the Union, the monarchy, the economy - Boris's Tory party will trash all of them before it's through if left unchecked.HYUFD said:
Respecting British sovereignty and keeping control of our borders is also part of the Tory brand as is respecting democratic votes, the Tories are not just a neoliberal partykle4 said:
Perhaps, but I always thought support for monarchy, the UK and stable finances was part of the Tory brand and apparently that is not true either.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.0 -
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
0 -
That Davidson and Boris Johnson have a terrible relationship is neither a secret nor quite the point. It doesn’t help, but the fact Davidson considers the prime minister a **** is not, on its own, enough to force her out. But again, it hardly helps. And, to be clear, she doesn’t think the prime minister a ****, she considers him a ****.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/ruth-davidsons-true-enemies-have-always-been-her-own-party/0 -
Fight, fight, fight, fight, fight...
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1166783890503143426?s=200 -
Bloody hell! Thought it was 8 o'clock KO!TheScreamingEagles said:Everton LOL
0 -
The tories are just a front for hedge fund managers and tax avoiders, just admit it it will free you!HYUFD said:
Respecting British sovereignty and keeping control of our borders is also part of the Tory brand as is respecting democratic votes, the Tories are not just a neoliberal partykle4 said:
Perhaps, but I always thought support for monarchy, the UK and stable finances was part of the Tory brand and apparently that is not true either.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.0 -
-
When in that House M.P.’s divide,Benpointer said:
...TheScreamingEagles said:
He is a diehard line taker.Benpointer said:
One of the highlights of this year was seeing Remain voting HYUFD tell leaving voting Stodge and Casino Royale that they are not proper Brexiteers.TheScreamingEagles said:
In @HUYFD's world there are no Remainers only diehard Remainers.HYUFD said:
Don't lie like your hero Boris.kle4 said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for exampleHYUFD said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.Nigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. ....d forNorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.
I'm not a diehard remainer, I've said we should respect the vote to leave, as was campaigned, and Boris Johnson and his fellow bunch of campaigners said we would Leave with a deal.
Once the Leader has declared the story of the day/week/whatever, that becomes the new truth.
I always voted at my party's call,
And I never thought of thinking for myself at all.
If they’ve a brain and cerebellum, too,
They’ve got to leave that brain outside, And vote just as their leaders tell ’em to.
But then the prospect of a lot
Of dull M. P.’s in close proximity,
All thinking for themselves, is what No man can face with equanimity....
0 -
'Slow, steady and responsible' is certainly not how you would describe Tory leaders like Salisbury or Churchill or Thatcher, when the country has needed radical action and a tough leader who will take on establishment thinking the Tories have delivered iteek said:
Conservative (slow, steady and responsible) was the Tory brand. It isn't anymore as a lot of former Tory members on here will tell you.HYUFD said:
Respecting British sovereignty and keeping control of our borders is also part of the Tory brand as is respecting democratic votes, the Tories are not just a neoliberal partykle4 said:
Perhaps, but I always thought support for monarchy, the UK and stable finances was part of the Tory brand and apparently that is not true either.HYUFD said:
One thing this has done is flush out liberals who were never really Tories or conservatives in the first place, just because you are not a socialist does not make you a Tory, especially if you are a republican diehard Remainer like TSE for examplekle4 said:
Bang on cue the 'you don't back the current policy 100% so were never really a Tory' approach.HYUFD said:
You were obviously more of a 19th century Liberal than a Tory anyway, if Corbyn gets into power it will be because the Tories do not deliver Brexit and split the rightwing vote with the Brexit Party, not because they actually deliver the Brexit the British People voted forNigel_Foremain said:
yawn. Some of us "remoaners" (yawn again) have principles. I won't vote for a Marxist, but I won't vote for a bunch of nutters and crypto-fascists either. If Corbyn does get near power it will be because of people who thought throwing away the Conservative Party USPs of sensible economics and sensible government is worth it for an emotional desire to turn Britain back to a 1950s utopia that never existed. On day the grown ups will take the Conservative Party back again. Until then it is vote LD and proud!NorthCadboll said:All the indignant remoaner Tories will have to think carefully what they wish for. If we have a GE, which is frankly more important a) remaining part of the EU and risking PM Corbyn taxing them out of existence, seeing the value of their houses collapse and their pension funds evaporate as the stock market collapses or b) it becoming slightly inconvenient to go on their 4 European holidays each year by having to queue for a wee while at the airport passport control as we used to have to do automatically until a few years ago.
Vote LibDem get Corbyn, vote Green get Corbyn, vote SNP get Corbyn. The only way to avoid getting Corbyn is to vote Tory.0 -
strong team out for Leicester at Newcastle.TheScreamingEagles said:Everton LOL
0 -
Being an egg of course, you shouldn’t find me speaking against gammon.Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
One casualty of today’s hyperbole has been the monarchy. Events, dear boy, events have put the queen right in the middle of it, have they not? Constitutionally the Queen is free to decide whether or not to go along with the government’s plans or support the sovereign parliament. The convention though is the Queen does what she’s told by the PM, and his lap mogg. But in normal times the PM has the full support of a majority in the Commons. So Its difficult spot for the queen, is this But whose fault is that, Johnsons or Corbyn’s? I would lay the blame at door of Corbyns letter, yet more evidence the man and those around him are mendacious fools. That letter should have been jointly signed by all opposition leaders in parliament, if it was a good idea. But even then that letter spotlights the impotence of the Queen and the role of the monarch’s powers. So only an anti monarchist could think that letter a good idea.0 -
ydoethur said:
I'll put you down as a 'maybe,' Nichomar! 😀nichomar said:
It’s only ever about the future of the blue team, after all you have the full home and away kits you have invested you’re life in supporting them. They can’t tell you why they should survive but you just have to believe that it is their god given right to. They are lying shysters who are only interested in the future of the Conservative party and ensuring their venture capitalist backers continue to make money and the Uber rich can keep their off shore investments hidden from Financial Transparency regulations coming their n in 2020. This is the only reason they want brexit it has fuck all to do with the left behind it’s all about making more money for themselves.ydoethur said:
It's good to know come rain, shine or constitutional warfare, HYUFD will still valiantly put a very unconvincing spin on opinion polls.HYUFD said:
So fewer voters oppose proroguing Parliament than even the 48% who voted Remain then and a majority of Tory and Leave voters back proroguing Parliament to enforce Brexit.FF43 said:
It seems to be. I think maybe smart arsed. The consensus undoubtedly is that MPs are a useless bunch. It's quite a step from there to thinking Johnson is right to get rid of them because he finds a functioning parliament inconvenient. People may not be able to spell "prorogue" or know what it means in constitutional terms. But they can smell a rat at fifty paces.AlastairMeeks said:
He wants the hornets buzzing. The aim is to hustle his opponents into a vote of no confidence.Richard_Tyndall said:What I don't understand in all of this us why Boris has kicked this hornets nest for the sake of 4 extra days without Parliament sitting.
Johnson seems to be following a 30% strategy, not even a 50% one.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1166717448118296576
Under FPTP Boris can win on that as a last restort with a split Remainer vote, while still trying for a technical solution for the Irish border first
Some things never change!
I do feel rather strongly about this!0 -
Oh god they are actually playing a team containing a lot of their starting 11 as well.....TheScreamingEagles said:Everton LOL
0 -
I would argue both Asquith and Attlee were radicals who challenged establishment thinking as was Wilson in the social field who challenged traditional views on abortion, homosexuality and the abolition of capital punishment.HYUFD said:
'Slow, steady and responsible' is certainly not how you would describe Tory leaders like Salisbury or Churchill or Thatcher, when the country has needed radical action and a tough leader who will take on establishment thinking the Tories have delivered it
0 -
Well, so are Labour in all fairness. They just call them 'trades unions' for short.nichomar said:
The tories are just a front for hedge fund managers and tax avoiders, just admit it it will free you!HYUFD said:Respecting British sovereignty and keeping control of our borders is also part of the Tory brand as is respecting democratic votes, the Tories are not just a neoliberal party
One of the most exasperating things about Brexit is how it has totally shredded the party system, and by extension our democratic system, which while not perfect had actually mostly worked satisfactorily for 330 years.
The next question is what replaces it. Both Johnson and Corbyn display alarming Messiah-like complexes comparable to nutters like Trump, Netanyahu, Chavez, Putin and Modi, although neither of them have even remotely the ability of even the thickest of those. Neither are fit for any sort of public office. Corbyn was out of his depth as a Housing Asssociation officer, FFS. But we're lumbered with them, so we have no escape.0 -
And Churchill was not Tory party leader when he took his most radical action - refusing peace talks with Germany in summer 1940.stodge said:
I would argue both Asquith and Attlee were radicals who challenged establishment thinking as was Wilson in the social field who challenged traditional views on abortion, homosexuality and the abolition of capital punishment.HYUFD said:
'Slow, steady and responsible' is certainly not how you would describe Tory leaders like Salisbury or Churchill or Thatcher, when the country has needed radical action and a tough leader who will take on establishment thinking the Tories have delivered it0 -
The Tories were still tied ahead on 31% in that poll, under May they were 4th.williamglenn said:
UKIP were on 25% in the run up to the 2015 election.HYUFD said:
The Tories can win with the Brexit Party on 10 to 15% as now and in 2015, they cannot win with the Brexit Party on 20 to 25% as was the case when May extendedThe_Taxman said:
I don't think Nigel Farage is going to disappear until he is put in a coffin. If it is not Brexit he is campaigning on, it will be immigration or law and order or something populist. He is a narcist and all the Brexit supporting media and the Tory party are doing is amplifying his message. I am amazed how some Tories go along with all this even though they may never have voted for Brexit or even support the positions the Tory party are taking on key policies....HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/poll-support-for-ukip-hits-record-high/
In any case the Brexit Party got 26% with YouGov and Opinium in May and June and were first, higher even than UKIP got in that poll with the Tories 4th on just 17%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
0 -
Glad to see you avoided the use of the adjective "strong".FrancisUrquhart said:
Oh god they are actually playing a team containing a lot of their starting 11 as well.....TheScreamingEagles said:Everton LOL
0 -
Noted a few Conservative district/county councillors today tweeting disapproval of prorogation ("disgraceful... I fundamentally disagree" in the latest). This may not enthuse the activist base.0
-
I feel really sorry for Everton fans, I think you've spent an awful lot money since 2016 for a lot of average players.dixiedean said:
Glad to see you avoided the use of the adjective "strong".FrancisUrquhart said:
Oh god they are actually playing a team containing a lot of their starting 11 as well.....TheScreamingEagles said:Everton LOL
0 -
I spoke to a Tory councillor today, his view was we've created a terrible precedent for when Corbyn pulls this trick.El_Capitano said:Noted a few Conservative district/county councillors today tweeting disapproval of prorogation ("disgraceful... I fundamentally disagree" in the latest). This may not enthuse the activist base.
1 -
Well, yes. Although I don't agree that the monarchy has been caught up in this. As I said - HMQ's day, much as any other. (Some clever people making sure that's so, and they deserve a quiet hat tip)egg said:
Being an egg of course, you shouldn’t find me speaking against gammon.Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
One casualty of today’s hyperbole has been the monarchy. Events, dear boy, events have put the queen right in the middle of it, have they not? Constitutionally the Queen is free to decide whether or not to go along with the government’s plans or support the sovereign parliament. The convention though is the Queen does what she’s told by the PM, and his lap mogg. But in normal times the PM has the full support of a majority in the Commons. So Its difficult spot for the queen, is this But whose fault is that, Johnsons or Corbyn’s? I would lay the blame at door of Corbyns letter, yet more evidence the man and those around him are mendacious fools. That letter should have been jointly signed by all opposition leaders in parliament, if it was a good idea. But even then that letter spotlights the impotence of the Queen and the role of the monarch’s powers. So only an anti monarchist could think that letter a good idea.
The Queen is obviously just advised by the PM.
A joint letter may have been a little more problematic, but it'd be the same response. She doesn't interfere..
Welcome to pb by the way egg.
0 -
Delph average...you are being too kind.TheScreamingEagles said:
I feel really sorry for Everton fans, I think you've spent an awful lot money since 2016 for a lot of average players.dixiedean said:
Glad to see you avoided the use of the adjective "strong".FrancisUrquhart said:
Oh god they are actually playing a team containing a lot of their starting 11 as well.....TheScreamingEagles said:Everton LOL
0 -
Why should she be inimical to Corbyn, who has done nothing to threaten the Union, unlike one of her earlier visitors?Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)0 -
If we leave with No Deal, the ERG will think they have played it perfectly. What will the MPs who voted Remain in 2016, pledged to respect the leave victory in their 2017 GE campaigns, then voted three times against Theresa May’s agreement with the EU thereafter console themselves with?0
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Do No Prorogue Petition update - just passed 750,000
'Parliament will consider this for a debate' apparently...
...if it is ever in session.
0 -
Actually on the latest YouGov the LDs would only win 13 Tory seatsnot_on_fire said:
Not much use then, given they will lose 30-40 seats to the Lib Dems as well.HYUFD said:
Labour Leave seats, of which he will take about 30 to 40 on the latest polling (though he will still hold up to half the Tory seats in Scotland too anyway)El_Capitano said:
Which is not an answer to the question "where does Boris make up those 12 seats which he needs for his majority".HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?0 -
Corbyn, the avowed supporter of the IRA, has done nothing to threaten the Union?!!!Peter_the_Punter said:
Why should she be inimical to Corbyn, who has done nothing to threaten the Union, unlike one of her earlier visitors?Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
I know Johnson may have lost his marbles (if he ever had any) but can we please keep a sense of proportion here?1 -
Well if Boris offers a big enough sum I suppose I might consider it...NickPalmer said:
Have you considered a career as a spin doctor? I believe Alastair Campbell has retired.HYUFD said:
So fewer voters oppose proroguing Parliament than even the 48% who voted Remain then and a majority of Tory and Leave voters back proroguing Parliament to enforce Brexit.FF43 said:
It seems to be. I think maybe smart arsed. The consensus undoubtedly is that MPs are a useless bunch. It's quite a step from there to thinking Johnson is right to get rid of them because he finds a functioning parliament inconvenient. People may not be able to spell "prorogue" or know what it means in constitutional terms. But they can smell a rat at fifty paces.AlastairMeeks said:
He wants the hornets buzzing. The aim is to hustle his opponents into a vote of no confidence.Richard_Tyndall said:What I don't understand in all of this us why Boris has kicked this hornets nest for the sake of 4 extra days without Parliament sitting.
Johnson seems to be following a 30% strategy, not even a 50% one.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1166717448118296576
Under FPTP Boris can win on that as a last restort with a split Remainer vote, while still trying for a technical solution for the Irish border first0 -
The fact that the chaos of No Deal will be quickly apparent to everyone and we will be negotiating to re-join?isam said:If we leave with No Deal, the ERG will think they have played it perfectly. What will the MPs who voted Remain in 2016, pledged to respect the leave victory in their 2017 GE campaigns, then voted three times against Theresa May’s agreement with the EU thereafter console themselves with?
0 -
I think to be honest that in a changing media age where many people live in their social media bubble it becomes increasingly difficult to have meaningful debate. Obviously I’m a diehard remainer lib dem who believes my children’s future is in Europe but the public are not, on the whole engaged. I think it is oillyt ? That said it’s time to lance the boil, leave no deal and then try living on wto terms and see how it pans out so that at least we can move forward. It’s either that or revoke A50 and take the country forward one way or the other.ydoethur said:
Well, so are Labour in all fairness. They just call them 'trades unions' for short.nichomar said:
The tories are just a front for hedge fund managers and tax avoiders, just admit it it will free you!HYUFD said:Respecting British sovereignty and keeping control of our borders is also part of the Tory brand as is respecting democratic votes, the Tories are not just a neoliberal party
One of the most exasperating things about Brexit is how it has totally shredded the party system, and by extension our democratic system, which while not perfect had actually mostly worked satisfactorily for 330 years.
The next question is what replaces it. Both Johnson and Corbyn display alarming Messiah-like complexes comparable to nutters like Trump, Netanyahu, Chavez, Putin and Modi, although neither of them have even remotely the ability of even the thickest of those. Neither are fit for any sort of public office. Corbyn was out of his depth as a Housing Asssociation officer, FFS. But we're lumbered with them, so we have no escape.0 -
I thought nothing would persuade me to vote for Corbyn but that was pre Johnson. The sight of Rees Mogg going to see the Queen to prorogue parliament was the last straw The best chance of ridding ourselves of this clique is to vote Corbyn (except in certain constituencies). He's bloody awful but at least he has principles and he's removable.0
-
There's no threat to the Union bigger than No Deal Brexit.ydoethur said:
Corbyn, the avowed supporter of the IRA, has done nothing to threaten the Union?!!!Peter_the_Punter said:
Why should she be inimical to Corbyn, who has done nothing to threaten the Union, unlike one of her earlier visitors?Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
I know Johnson may have lost his marbles (if he ever had any) but can we please keep a sense of proportion here?0 -
Davidson has seemed disinterested and ineffective since she returned - can’t see her lasting long in politics if she stands down.0
-
ydoethur said:
Corbyn, the avowed supporter of the IRA, has done nothing to threaten the Union?!!!Peter_the_Punter said:
Why should she be inimical to Corbyn, who has done nothing to threaten the Union, unlike one of her earlier visitors?Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
I know Johnson may have lost his marbles (if he ever had any) but can we please keep a sense of proportion here?0 -
Easy. Brexits not for ever. At some point probably soon we will be right back in again as overwhelmingly voted for by the electorate at series of GE.isam said:If we leave with No Deal, the ERG will think they have played it perfectly. What will the MPs who voted Remain in 2016, pledged to respect the leave victory in their 2017 GE campaigns, then voted three times against Theresa May’s agreement with the EU thereafter console themselves with?
This whole damn waste of precious time and money merely to send the gammon generation off to their graves happy.0 -
.
Do you actually believe this stuff you post?HYUFD said:
Actually on the latest YouGov the LDs would only win 13 Tory seatsnot_on_fire said:
Not much use then, given they will lose 30-40 seats to the Lib Dems as well.HYUFD said:
Labour Leave seats, of which he will take about 30 to 40 on the latest polling (though he will still hold up to half the Tory seats in Scotland too anyway)El_Capitano said:
Which is not an answer to the question "where does Boris make up those 12 seats which he needs for his majority".HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?0 -
Yes - Jew hating principles.Roger said:I thought nothing would persuade me to vote for Corbyn but that was pre Johnson. The sight of Rees Mogg going to see the Queen to prorogue parliament was the last straw The best chance of ridding ourselves of this clique is to vote Corbyn (except in certain constituencies). He's bloody awful but at least he has principles and he's removable.
0 -
AIUI had Chamberlain or Halifax started peace talks with the Germans many at least of the then Tory MP’s would have backed them. Possibly, given the support of the Communists and one or two of the Labour members, enough.ydoethur said:
And Churchill was not Tory party leader when he took his most radical action - refusing peace talks with Germany in summer 1940.stodge said:
I would argue both Asquith and Attlee were radicals who challenged establishment thinking as was Wilson in the social field who challenged traditional views on abortion, homosexuality and the abolition of capital punishment.HYUFD said:
'Slow, steady and responsible' is certainly not how you would describe Tory leaders like Salisbury or Churchill or Thatcher, when the country has needed radical action and a tough leader who will take on establishment thinking the Tories have delivered it0 -
Boris’s Conservative and Brexit party bringing united Ireland closer than IRA and Corbyn could ever manage too.Benpointer said:
There's no threat to the Union bigger than No Deal Brexit.ydoethur said:
Corbyn, the avowed supporter of the IRA, has done nothing to threaten the Union?!!!Peter_the_Punter said:
Why should she be inimical to Corbyn, who has done nothing to threaten the Union, unlike one of her earlier visitors?Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
I know Johnson may have lost his marbles (if he ever had any) but can we please keep a sense of proportion here?0 -
So the Tories can win 30 seats but look likely to lose at least 19 of them.HYUFD said:
Actually on the latest YouGov the LDs would only win 13 Tory seatsnot_on_fire said:
Not much use then, given they will lose 30-40 seats to the Lib Dems as well.HYUFD said:
Labour Leave seats, of which he will take about 30 to 40 on the latest polling (though he will still hold up to half the Tory seats in Scotland too anyway)El_Capitano said:
Which is not an answer to the question "where does Boris make up those 12 seats which he needs for his majority".HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?0 -
Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
As an example, I work a 40 hour week as do many people, How would I find the time to be a local Councillor? County Councillors are nearly always either retired men or women or people with very understanding employers. The notion of talking time from work to serve on a council is just not recognised.ydoethur said:
One of the most exasperating things about Brexit is how it has totally shredded the party system, and by extension our democratic system, which while not perfect had actually mostly worked satisfactorily for 330 years.
The next question is what replaces it. Both Johnson and Corbyn display alarming Messiah-like complexes comparable to nutters like Trump, Netanyahu, Chavez, Putin and Modi, although neither of them have even remotely the ability of even the thickest of those. Neither are fit for any sort of public office. Corbyn was out of his depth as a Housing Asssociation officer, FFS. But we're lumbered with them, so we have no escape.
"Money Talks" - political parties are businesses - campaigning costs money and while parties could and do make use of volunteers, the kind of continuous campaigning (Internet ads and the like) need to be funded. I suppose we could set a limit on outside election expenditure just as there are limits on spending within elections.
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I can't see how anyone who gives a damn about British Jews could vote Corbyn.TGOHF said:
Yes - Jew hating principles.Roger said:I thought nothing would persuade me to vote for Corbyn but that was pre Johnson. The sight of Rees Mogg going to see the Queen to prorogue parliament was the last straw The best chance of ridding ourselves of this clique is to vote Corbyn (except in certain constituencies). He's bloody awful but at least he has principles and he's removable.
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i thought that was rather Roy Jenkins, as Home Secretary.stodge said:
I would argue both Asquith and Attlee were radicals who challenged establishment thinking as was Wilson in the social field who challenged traditional views on abortion, homosexuality and the abolition of capital punishment.HYUFD said:'Slow, steady and responsible' is certainly not how you would describe Tory leaders like Salisbury or Churchill or Thatcher, when the country has needed radical action and a tough leader who will take on establishment thinking the Tories have delivered it
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https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1166780980948099073AlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
On the one hand half the public will never accept Brexit. On the other hand I can't see the EU ever having us back. It's a shitshow all round.AlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
Nah - the fall-out from Brexit will last generations, whichever way it pans out. May's deal was probably the least impactful but that seems lost now.egg said:
Easy. Brexits not for ever. At some point probably soon we will be right back in again as overwhelmingly voted for by the electorate at series of GE.isam said:If we leave with No Deal, the ERG will think they have played it perfectly. What will the MPs who voted Remain in 2016, pledged to respect the leave victory in their 2017 GE campaigns, then voted three times against Theresa May’s agreement with the EU thereafter console themselves with?
This whole damn waste of precious time and money merely to send the gammon generation off to their graves happy.0 -
Only in the eyes of just under half of the countryAlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
If Halifax had resigned over Churchill's refusal to talk, the likelihood is Churchill's government would have collapsed. But goodness only knows who or what would have replaced it under those circumstances. Anderson, perhaps, with a mandate for negotiations. Or a General Election - but how would you hold one? But in the end Halifax did not resign, although to prevent any repeat performance he was removed at the earliest possible moment seven months later.OldKingCole said:
AIUI had Chamberlain or Halifax started peace talks with the Germans many at least of the then Tory MP’s would have backed them. Possibly, given the support of the Communists and one or two of the Labour members, enough.ydoethur said:
And Churchill was not Tory party leader when he took his most radical action - refusing peace talks with Germany in summer 1940.stodge said:
I would argue both Asquith and Attlee were radicals who challenged establishment thinking as was Wilson in the social field who challenged traditional views on abortion, homosexuality and the abolition of capital punishment.HYUFD said:
'Slow, steady and responsible' is certainly not how you would describe Tory leaders like Salisbury or Churchill or Thatcher, when the country has needed radical action and a tough leader who will take on establishment thinking the Tories have delivered it0 -
I’m with @ydoethur on this - they are both beyond the pale.Roger said:I thought nothing would persuade me to vote for Corbyn but that was pre Johnson. The sight of Rees Mogg going to see the Queen to prorogue parliament was the last straw The best chance of ridding ourselves of this clique is to vote Corbyn (except in certain constituencies). He's bloody awful but at least he has principles and he's removable.
0 -
Everton get lucky,
That Digne is good at free kicks isn't he?
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This could all turn very nasty.CatMan said:Fight, fight, fight, fight, fight...
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1166783890503143426?s=200 -
The EU will always be blinded by the monies and opportunities our membership will bring. They would probably prefer we had a more strong and stable democracy though.Gabs2 said:
On the one hand half the public will never accept Brexit. On the other hand I can't see the EU ever having us back. It's a shitshow all round.AlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
The growing half of the country.isam said:
Only in the eyes of just under half of the countryAlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
How do you think it looks from Scotland?isam said:
Only in the eyes of just under half of the countryAlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
Probably not 'just under half' now, given mortality rates.isam said:
Only in the eyes of just under half of the countryAlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
The YouGov snap poll did suggest a sizeable chunk of Leave voters were not happy with today's shenanigans. That isn't conclusive in itself, but it kind of makes sense. Not all Leavers are indifferent to the ideal of Parliamentary Democracy.isam said:
Only in the eyes of just under half of the countryAlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.2 -
So given the Tories only need a net gain of 8 for a majority a net Tory gain of 11 as above would be more than enough for Boriseek said:
So the Tories can win 30 seats but look likely to lose at least 19 of them.HYUFD said:
Actually on the latest YouGov the LDs would only win 13 Tory seatsnot_on_fire said:
Not much use then, given they will lose 30-40 seats to the Lib Dems as well.HYUFD said:
Labour Leave seats, of which he will take about 30 to 40 on the latest polling (though he will still hold up to half the Tory seats in Scotland too anyway)El_Capitano said:
Which is not an answer to the question "where does Boris make up those 12 seats which he needs for his majority".HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?0 -
Which Remain seats do they lose?HYUFD said:
On the latest YouGov the Tories would gain 36 Labour mainly Leave seats from Kensington, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme to Darlington, Weaver Vale and Rother Valleyeek said:
Really - which ones?HYUFD said:
Labour Leave seats, of which he will take about 30 to 40 on the latest polling (though he will still hold up to half the Tory seats in Scotland too anyway)El_Capitano said:
Which is not an answer to the question "where does Boris make up those 12 seats which he needs for his majority".HYUFD said:
In the European elections the Tories were 4th in Scotland and the Brexit Party second, only 28% of Scots voted Tory even in 2017 compared to 38% who voted Leave in 2016. Davidson was a strong force leading the anti SNP, pro Union cause but going down an anti Brexit path was not helping the Tories in Scotland eithereek said:So that's a few seats in Scotland last to Boris.
Where does he win them?
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative0 -
Benpointer said:
There's no threat to the Union bigger than No Deal Brexit.ydoethur said:
Corbyn, the avowed supporter of the IRA, has done nothing to threaten the Union?!!!Peter_the_Punter said:
Why should she be inimical to Corbyn, who has done nothing to threaten the Union, unlike one of her earlier visitors?Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
I know Johnson may have lost his marbles (if he ever had any) but can we please keep a sense of proportion here?
Even now only 46% of Scots including Don't Knows back independence even on the latest Ashcroft poll.
Plus Unionists in Northern Ireland strongly oppose the backstop and Boris has promised to keep an open border regardless0 -
I’d be prepared to bet that today’s YouGov oversampled political nerdsPeter_the_Punter said:
The YouGov snap poll did suggest a sizeable chunk of Leave voters were not happy with today's shenanigans. That isn't conclusive in itself, but it kind of makes sense. Not all Leavers are indifferent to the ideal of Parliamentary Democracy.isam said:
Only in the eyes of just under half of the countryAlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.0 -
The point is Corbyn has no principles either. He proved that over welfare cuts. He's Johnson with a beard.Nigelb said:
I’m with @ydoethur on this - they are both beyond the pale.Roger said:I thought nothing would persuade me to vote for Corbyn but that was pre Johnson. The sight of Rees Mogg going to see the Queen to prorogue parliament was the last straw The best chance of ridding ourselves of this clique is to vote Corbyn (except in certain constituencies). He's bloody awful but at least he has principles and he's removable.
There is no sense in voting against someone by voting for someone just as bad, if not worse. I will be making a positive choice to vote for someone in November and that won't be either Blue or Red. I may not be successful in giving my choice the seat, but better that than to continue this populist disaster with different haircuts.0 -
By the way, anyone not following the anti-prorogation petition is missing valuable betting information for the next election.0
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The Gov't could schedule a debate on it for 5 days when Parliament reconvenes.Benpointer said:Do No Prorogue Petition update - just passed 750,000
'Parliament will consider this for a debate' apparently...
...if it is ever in session.0 -
Half the country are not in favour of either no deal, or stuffing Parliament in this manner; a small majority of leave voters are.isam said:
Only in the eyes of just under half of the countryAlastairMeeks said:Just to stand back for 30 seconds. What have today’s events done to embed Brexit as something that the country can unite around?
In the long term this looks like a strategic disaster for Leave. It ensures, if it were not already sure, that Brexit will never be embedded. It will become part of the country’s folk myth that Leavers are the enemies of Parliamentary democracy.
Whereas the great majority of those who voted remain find both those things unacceptable.
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Who would you say was the most effective defender of the union in Scottish politics, HYUFD?HYUFD said:Benpointer said:
There's no threat to the Union bigger than No Deal Brexit.ydoethur said:
Corbyn, the avowed supporter of the IRA, has done nothing to threaten the Union?!!!Peter_the_Punter said:
Why should she be inimical to Corbyn, who has done nothing to threaten the Union, unlike one of her earlier visitors?Omnium said:
"lead to understand" surely, and "might" not would.not_on_fire said:I suspect Boris was told that the Queen would veto any prorogation that covered 31st October or began before Parliament could pass a VONC, and the dates we have ended up with are a compromise
HMQ's day has been much as any other - accommodating reasonable requests from her subjects and advisers.
I'm sure she'll listen to Corbyn, Swinson, and whoever else she can't avoid meeting and not interfere.
Corbyn's tea might not be the best the Palace has ever made mind you. (The kitchens were too busy)
I know Johnson may have lost his marbles (if he ever had any) but can we please keep a sense of proportion here?
Even now only 46% of Scots including Don't Knows back independence even on the latest Ashcroft poll.0 -
Agreed.ydoethur said:
The point is Corbyn has no principles either. He proved that over welfare cuts. He's Johnson with a beard.Nigelb said:
I’m with @ydoethur on this - they are both beyond the pale.Roger said:I thought nothing would persuade me to vote for Corbyn but that was pre Johnson. The sight of Rees Mogg going to see the Queen to prorogue parliament was the last straw The best chance of ridding ourselves of this clique is to vote Corbyn (except in certain constituencies). He's bloody awful but at least he has principles and he's removable.
There is no sense in voting against someone by voting for someone just as bad, if not worse. I will be making a positive choice to vote for someone in November and that won't be either Blue or Red. I may not be successful in giving my choice the seat, but better that than to continue this populist disaster with different haircuts.
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I have a couple of jobs in addition to being on the Council executive, and my daytime employer does give me a few hours a week for council meetings which I make up at other times. The LibDem deputy leader has a full-time job too, as does the Green leaader. So it can be done, if it's your main hobby. But all the other Exec members are retired, and mostly sprightly people in their 70s. The problem is that we can't really ask the Council officers to keep coming to evening meetings.stodge said:
As an example, I work a 40 hour week as do many people, How would I find the time to be a local Councillor? County Councillors are nearly always either retired men or women or people with very understanding employers. The notion of talking time from work to serve on a council is just not recognised.0