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Pulpstar said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

All that matters to Boris IMO... to hell with the country, vote for Boris!!

Corbyn's made this calculation too.

Having two reality-denying egomanics at the top of the parties is why we are in this mess.

History would think better of Corbyn if he stood aside and said "I am doing this for the good of the country" and then get rewarded with a senior position, but he is an ideologue pursing his obsession.

We get the politicians we deserve...

midwinter said:

dixiedean said:

StuartDickson said:

Stark_Dawning said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

More in that Kantar poll:

Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
Leave No Deal: 23
Leave TM Deal: 9
Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
Remain/Revoke A50: 33
DK: 22

Should the final deal be put to public vote:
Yes: 52
No: 29
DK: 19

How likely Leave by Oct 31?
Net Likely: 46
Net Unlikely: 35
DK: 19

Those are very interesting. I am trying to reconcile them with the headline voting figures. The only way I can do is with the idea that for a lot of voters a Corbyn government is worse than No Deal.

Perhaps the sheer force of Boris's charisma, audacity and spunk transcends Brexit, nay transcends even politics itself. In him the public sees the personification of everything they crave in life but have always been too timid or mediocre to achieve, and are just compelled to reward him for it.

Boris’s spunk.

It has come to this.

He's spaffing it liberally in the face of a grateful nation it would seem.

We're gratefully lapping it up

Bukkake Boris Saves the Day!

I can see the Election Broadcast now, complete with wah-wah guitar.

CatMan said:

"Government finances weaker than expected in July"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49418751

Just the start of Boris' splurge on public sector pay, capital projects, housing, anything else needed to win votes. Economic stability is so overrated when you have an election to win.

Ask Hammond who achieved the truly remarkable of significantly improving the public deficit in an election year. The gratitude was underwhelming. Boris will not make that mistake and, at this point in the cycle, he might even be right.

DavidL said:

So the good news on the GERS figures is that the deficit is down just over £1bn from last year to this.

The bad news is even current expenditure remains in deficit with no provision for capex. To put that in perspective the UK overall fiscal balance remains a deficit of 1.1% of GDP but the current figure is actually in surplus by 0.8% of GDP. Scotland has a deficit in excess of 4%.

More good news is that revenues have risen quite fast this last year, faster than for the UK as a whole (5.1% vs 4.5%). This no doubt reflects the higher taxes charged by Nicola's government on HRTs. Whether that will be sustainable in the medium term remains to be seen.

Overall these figures show a modest improvement in Scotland's fiscal balance and a very modest step towards sustainability. In the last few months we have seen 2 significant gas fields come online in the north sea. I think that is likely to at least offset the long term decline of north sea income for a while.

I do not want independence. I will never want independence. I am British and proudly so. But if Scotland is going to go the route of independence they will need a series of better years to get even close to some sort of sustainability. From a desperately poor base this is a small step in that direction.

The only intelligent unionist/Tory on the board, almost makes up for the nasties on here.

GIN1138 said:

SouthamObserver said:

StuartDickson said:

CarlottaVance said:

More in that Kantar poll:

Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
Leave No Deal: 23
Leave TM Deal: 9
Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
Remain/Revoke A50: 33
DK: 22

Should the final deal be put to public vote:
Yes: 52
No: 29
DK: 19

How likely Leave by Oct 31?
Net Likely: 46
Net Unlikely: 35
DK: 19

No Deal at just 23%.

If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances?

Abstract and reality are very different things, of course. I am not expecting Day One meltdown, but I am expecting a significant long-term toll in a wide variety of areas from inward investment, through jobs and salaries, to social care and other forms of public spending, not to mention the very unity of the UK. It will be playing out throughout the years following the general election I am expecting Johnson to win.

Guess that was a non starter. Next plan please!

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1164095854170521600?s=20

Beibheirli_C said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Why? The EU are not impressed by Boris-friendly polls. They have different priorities so the UK has made its decision and can be left to deal with it.

I find it amazing how many people fail to realise this.

CatMan said:

Guess that was a non starter. Next plan please!

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1164095854170521600?s=20

The 'we are stupid or confused about our plans' admission is only used when no better excuses exist, so that's a bad sign.

CatMan said:

Guess that was a non starter. Next plan please!

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1164095854170521600?s=20

May would have let nonsense like that fester and be reported in all the papers. Good to see Number 10 on top of things.

This might sound like a PB parody but a couple of things that have been mentioned to me unprompted by Brexit No deal fans of my acquaintance

i) Bombing the french
ii) Tube scene from darkest hour.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

Former HS2 Ltd chairman Douglas Oakervee will lead the inquiry, with Lord Berkeley - a long-term critic of the high-speed railway scheme - acting as his deputy.

Oakervee's role was already known. However, Lord Berkeley's appointment seems to me to be highly significant, heralding an enquiry whose conclusion cannot be predicted and must mean that the government is doing more than just going through the motions.

Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

An obvious and deeply cynical ploy.

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

StuartDickson said:

Tory England:

‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’

The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".

Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49412835

As well as being Tory England it is also a consequence of several years of 500,000 per annum increase in UK population in a NIMBY society.

Luckyguy1983 said:

StuartDickson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

A plausible scenario is:

Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

We simply could not cope.

The proposed border installations and personnel would be Republic of Ireland border installations and personnel. Whilst I am sure we would be supportive in any way we could, the responsibility to protect them would be the Republic's.

You’d hand over policing responsibility in Northern Ireland to Ireland?

I would hand over protecting Republic of Ireland property and personnel on Republic of Ireland land to the Republic of Ireland. Call me old fashioned.

Behold the magnanimity of the mighty imperialist.

What on earth are you talking about?

Answering your it will be Ireland's problem comment...If, as a result of a treaty obligation there have to be border posts, we will have our fairs share. In which case please refer to my post.

Stark_Dawning said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

All that matters to Boris IMO... to hell with the country, vote for Boris!!

It's called democracy.

Polling from ComRes back in February:

Building HS2 represents good value for taxpayers money. Agree 12%, Disagree 57%.

HS2 should be scrapped: Agree 43%, Disagree 20%

Money for HS2 could be better spent on existing railways: 72% agree, 7% disagree.

Money for HS2 could be better spent on improving roads: 62% agree, 13% disagree.

If 90% of the population told you to jump off a cliff would you do it?

90% of leavers would if the person asking was Boris.

CarlottaVance said:

Gardenwalker said:

tlg86 said:

Gardenwalker said:

CarlottaVance said:

More in that Kantar poll:

Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
Leave No Deal: 23
Leave TM Deal: 9
Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
Remain/Revoke A50: 33
DK: 22

Should the final deal be put to public vote:
Yes: 52
No: 29
DK: 19

How likely Leave by Oct 31?
Net Likely: 46
Net Unlikely: 35
DK: 19

That “public vote” split is an eye opener.

Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?

Remain/Revoke 33
EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
No Deal 23

As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.

Since we're adding things together:

Leave: 45
Remain: 33

Not necessarily . Given a choice between Remain and No Deal Brexit many EFTA/May's Deal will choose Remain.

Anorak said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Pulpstar said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

All that matters to Boris IMO... to hell with the country, vote for Boris!!

Boris should also scrap the Heathrow expansion while he's at it. Yes, profound and difficult questions concerning the country's vital infrastructure and long-term prospects will be binned, but think of the short-term publicity!

Isn't Heathrow "On review" too ?

We are opening up to the world. The last thing we want is better transport systems.

Perhaps post-Brexit, the Donald will agree special deals to let US firm build everything for us. They could run everything to... (or should that be "ruin everything"?)

I think it would be pretty easy to convince Trump that Greenland is actually the big bit attached to Northern Ireland.

"You mean Greenland is not the place where they color their beer green on St. Patricks day?"
"No Mr President, that's Ireland"
"I Know Greenland is an Island, and I want to buy it"

Stark_Dawning said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

All that matters to Boris IMO... to hell with the country, vote for Boris!!

It's called democracy.

Polling from ComRes back in February:

Building HS2 represents good value for taxpayers money. Agree 12%, Disagree 57%.

HS2 should be scrapped: Agree 43%, Disagree 20%

Money for HS2 could be better spent on existing railways: 72% agree, 7% disagree.

Money for HS2 could be better spent on improving roads: 62% agree, 13% disagree.

If 90% of the population told you to jump off a cliff would you do it?

I'd probably have a think about why they thought it was a good idea. What's the alternative and what are the consequences?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

All of it, because the EU told us the WA is not up for renegotiation. They advised HMG not to waste time over the six months extension by thinking the EU will capitulate come October.

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

That last is the critical bit. The government says no deal won't be a problem and at the same time that the EU will cave in to avoid no deal.

On topic you have to go back to Bill Clinton in 1992 to find the last time the winner of the Iowa caucuses did not win the Democratic nomination, so if Warren beats Biden in Iowa she is likely nominee

The interesting thing about HS2, which is a bit short of friends, is how much Andy Burnham supports it. He clearly recognises that better connections between London and Manchester would be good for Manchester. It's a problem faced by most of the UK including Edinburgh: do you try to compete with London or do you try and serve it? The latter looks much the safer course.

From a Dundee perspective there is currently 3 flights a day from Dundee to London City up for tender. There may be no takers but it would certainly help.

TOPPING said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

StuartDickson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

A plausible scenario is:

Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

We simply could not cope.

The proposed border installations and personnel would be Republic of Ireland border installations and personnel. Whilst I am sure we would be supportive in any way we could, the responsibility to protect them would be the Republic's.

You’d hand over policing responsibility in Northern Ireland to Ireland?

I would hand over protecting Republic of Ireland property and personnel on Republic of Ireland land to the Republic of Ireland. Call me old fashioned.

Behold the magnanimity of the mighty imperialist.

What on earth are you talking about?

Answering your it will be Ireland's problem comment...If, as a result of a treaty obligation there have to be border posts, we will have our fairs share. In which case please refer to my post.

Suggesting that the Republic of Ireland choosing to erect a hard border will result in a British military commitment matching that of the height of the troubles is deeply fanciful.

StuartDickson said:

CarlottaVance said:

More in that Kantar poll:

Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
Leave No Deal: 23
Leave TM Deal: 9
Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
Remain/Revoke A50: 33
DK: 22

Should the final deal be put to public vote:
Yes: 52
No: 29
DK: 19

How likely Leave by Oct 31?
Net Likely: 46
Net Unlikely: 35
DK: 19

No Deal at just 23%.

If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

Not when only 33% back Revoke and Remain

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

The other thing they know is that Boris doesn't have a majority anyway, so even if they were to ditch the backstop, and somehow managed to do this by October 31st and get the new deal through the European Parliament by then, the Withdrawal Agreement would probably sill not be ratified. So why on earth would they risk being seen as abandoning Ireland when doing so wouldn't even get round the immediate problem?

SouthamObserver said:

StuartDickson said:

CarlottaVance said:

More in that Kantar poll:

Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
Leave No Deal: 23
Leave TM Deal: 9
Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
Remain/Revoke A50: 33
DK: 22

Should the final deal be put to public vote:
Yes: 52
No: 29
DK: 19

How likely Leave by Oct 31?
Net Likely: 46
Net Unlikely: 35
DK: 19

No Deal at just 23%.

If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

Even Labour after 1979 got back 18 years later as did the Tories 13 years after 1997

Unless you are over 60 it is unlikely you will fail to see another Tory PM win a general election after Boris' triumph in the autumn

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

That last is the critical bit. The government says no deal won't be a problem and at the same time that the EU will cave in to avoid no deal.

I'm not saying that there is no a discrepancy there but I think you overstate it. Boris's position, as I understand it, is not that no deal won't be a problem but that we can cope. He remains clear that he wants a deal, just not the deal that is on the table which May negotiated.

The issue is whether the EU also regards a deal as optimal, is even capable of renegotiating at this point and is willing to do so to achieve that deal. I think the importance of the second point is being somewhat undersold here, not least with the collapse of the Italian government. How do the mechanics of the EU allow a material change to the deal even if they were so minded?

The mechanics are important, but so is the will. Leavers tend to blithely ignore the fact that the original WDA was seen by many EU governments as having given far too much to the UK.

Luckyguy1983 said:

TOPPING said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

StuartDickson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

A plausible scenario is:

Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

We simply could not cope.

The proposed border installations and personnel would be Republic of Ireland border installations and personnel. Whilst I am sure we would be supportive in any way we could, the responsibility to protect them would be the Republic's.

You’d hand over policing responsibility in Northern Ireland to Ireland?

I would hand over protecting Republic of Ireland property and personnel on Republic of Ireland land to the Republic of Ireland. Call me old fashioned.

Behold the magnanimity of the mighty imperialist.

What on earth are you talking about?

Answering your it will be Ireland's problem comment...If, as a result of a treaty obligation there have to be border posts, we will have our fairs share. In which case please refer to my post.

Suggesting that the Republic of Ireland choosing to erect a hard border will result in a British military commitment matching that of the height of the troubles is deeply fanciful.

A hard border might come about as result of a WTO ruling. Therefore relevant to both parties.

And once there is a hard border there is a hard border.

logical_song said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

The EU CAN'T make any concessions worth having, the best you'd get is a tweak to the wording.
They have to stick by a member state (Eire) and they would have to get any change past all 27 governments.
By 31st October? No Chance.

What part of those statement do you disagree with?

If the EU is 'standing by Ireland', that means if Ireland was prepared to find a creative solution to avoid a hard border and an indefinite backstop, the EU would accept.

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1164133074692726784

dixiedean said:

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

That last is the critical bit. The government says no deal won't be a problem and at the same time that the EU will cave in to avoid no deal.

I'm not saying that there is no a discrepancy there but I think you overstate it. Boris's position, as I understand it, is not that no deal won't be a problem but that we can cope. He remains clear that he wants a deal, just not the deal that is on the table which May negotiated.

The issue is whether the EU also regards a deal as optimal, is even capable of renegotiating at this point and is willing to do so to achieve that deal. I think the importance of the second point is being somewhat undersold here, not least with the collapse of the Italian government. How do the mechanics of the EU allow a material change to the deal even if they were so minded?

The mechanics are important, but so is the will. Leavers tend to blithely ignore the fact that the original WDA was seen by many EU governments as having given far too much to the UK.

It was a good deal and our political class shamed themselves by rejecting it. I suspect that most, possibly even all, EU governments would prefer to avoid disruption and uncertainty to both the EU budget and their trade at a time of slow down but I also suspect for many it is nowhere near the top of their priorities.

dixiedean said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

The EU CAN'T make any concessions worth having, the best you'd get is a tweak to the wording.
They have to stick by a member state (Eire) and they would have to get any change past all 27 governments.
By 31st October? No Chance.

What part of those statement do you disagree with?

If the EU is 'standing by Ireland', that means if Ireland was prepared to find a creative solution to avoid a hard border and an indefinite backstop, the EU would accept.

How are they supposed to do that? The best Leaver brains in the UK haven't come up with such a solution.

"The best Leaver brains" ... Hmmm.

logical_song said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

The EU CAN'T make any concessions worth having, the best you'd get is a tweak to the wording.
They have to stick by a member state (Eire) and they would have to get any change past all 27 governments.
By 31st October? No Chance.

What part of those statement do you disagree with?

I note that you don't disagree with anything that Johnson said. The best you can do is by implication to dismiss the relevance of the second part of his statement, on the grounds that having asked for and been given the earth you believe that the EU will never make concessions on anything, so that whether or not the EU believes the UK will follow through can have no effect on its negotiating stance. I disagree with your belief.

I disagree with you that the EU can't renegotiate. It's more a case of won't. The land border in Ireland means nothing to Brussels other than an excuse to say no. Up to now negotiations have been governed by an EU expectation that it can either persuade the UK to go back on the referendum decision (a long established pattern of EU behaviour towards inconvenient referenda) or agree to terms that still give the EU everything it could want from UK membership and more, remembering that May's agreement settled very little other than to strengthen the EU's hand in the detailed negotiations that would follow.

Johnson is right that there is no prospect of the UK being offered anything while the EU still holds out the hope that we could change our minds. If the UK leaves, then after 31st October that hope will have gone. I fully expect that if the UK leaves on 31st October, there will be an agreement or series of agreements on trade put in place over the months to follow, on better terms than the abject terms offered so far in order to persuade us to change our minds.

HYUFD said:

On topic you have to go back to Bill Clinton in 1992 to find the last time the winner of the Iowa caucuses did not win the Democratic nomination, so if Warren beats Biden in Iowa she is likely nominee

1996, 2000, 2012 walkovers
2016 Sanders outperformed by ~12% relative to his national polling in Iowa. Clinton could have lost Iowa and still won.
2008 Obama outperformed Clinton by 8% relative to his national polling in Iowa. Obama could have lost Iowa and still won. Clinton won the popular vote too in that election too !
2004 Howard Dean didn't just lose in Iowa he came a humiliating 3rd place. If Biden picks up two Iowa counties then yes his campaign is probably over.

So I think the 2004 result is the only one Biden backers need to really fear here.

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

CatMan said:

Errrrr

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1164108955339120641?s=20

Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 240, Tories 445, Labour 127, LDs 23.

Boris would win the biggest majority for any PM in the UK since Baldwin in 1931

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=42&LAB=25&LIB=15&Brexit=5&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

And yet in the same poll only 23% want a No Deal Brexit!

And only 33% want revoke and Remain.

My first choice is a Deal but I prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1164133074692726784

Chuka Shadow Foreign Affairs, Davey Shadow Chancellor and Jardine Shadow Home Affairs round off the big 3

dixiedean said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

The EU CAN'T make any concessions worth having, the best you'd get is a tweak to the wording.
They have to stick by a member state (Eire) and they would have to get any change past all 27 governments.
By 31st October? No Chance.

What part of those statement do you disagree with?

If the EU is 'standing by Ireland', that means if Ireland was prepared to find a creative solution to avoid a hard border and an indefinite backstop, the EU would accept.

How are they supposed to do that? The best Leaver brains in the UK haven't come up with such a solution.

Enda Kenny had Visual Studio open on the official Taoiseach Lenovo and was working on it until Varadkar fucked everything up.

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

That last is the critical bit. The government says no deal won't be a problem and at the same time that the EU will cave in to avoid no deal.

I'm not saying that there is no a discrepancy there but I think you overstate it. Boris's position, as I understand it, is not that no deal won't be a problem but that we can cope. He remains clear that he wants a deal, just not the deal that is on the table which May negotiated.

The issue is whether the EU also regards a deal as optimal, is even capable of renegotiating at this point and is willing to do so to achieve that deal. I think the importance of the second point is being somewhat undersold here, not least with the collapse of the Italian government. How do the mechanics of the EU allow a material change to the deal even if they were so minded?

If No Deal is manageable for the UK it will be more than manageable for the EU. If it is not manageable for the UK, then the UK will come back for a deal. Either way works for the EU.

If No Deal exit is manageable for the UK other EU nations might ultimately follow suit

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

That last is the critical bit. The government says no deal won't be a problem and at the same time that the EU will cave in to avoid no deal.

I'm not saying that there is no a discrepancy there but I think you overstate it. Boris's position, as I understand it, is not that no deal won't be a problem but that we can cope. He remains clear that he wants a deal, just not the deal that is on the table which May negotiated.

The issue is whether the EU also regards a deal as optimal, is even capable of renegotiating at this point and is willing to do so to achieve that deal. I think the importance of the second point is being somewhat undersold here, not least with the collapse of the Italian government. How do the mechanics of the EU allow a material change to the deal even if they were so minded?

If No Deal is manageable for the UK it will be more than manageable for the EU. If it is not manageable for the UK, then the UK will come back for a deal. Either way works for the EU.

If No Deal exit is manageable for the UK other EU nations might ultimately follow suit

Been a while since that one appeared.

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

The EU CAN'T make any concessions worth having, the best you'd get is a tweak to the wording.
They have to stick by a member state (Eire) and they would have to get any change past all 27 governments.
By 31st October? No Chance.

What part of those statement do you disagree with?

If the EU is 'standing by Ireland', that means if Ireland was prepared to find a creative solution to avoid a hard border and an indefinite backstop, the EU would accept.

There is little or no political will in Ireland to drop the Backstop. Yes - no deal will hurt - but backing down in the face of what is perceived to be unreasonable British instranigence will not fly politically. We've seen over and over in recent years how identity beats economics and standing up to the Brits is a major part of the Irish sense of identity.

There will be no deal. The argument that no-deal will be easy but the EU will budge to avoid no-deal cannot run forever, it has no logic. Either (1) the effects are negligible or (2) the effects are noticeably harmful. If (2) the harm will be (in decreasing levels) (i) damaging to the EU, (ii) devastating to the UK but (iii) catastrophic for those who have led the country down this path, notably the Tory Party. It's the call of those running the show now.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1164120644453355520

Wrong about cancelling HS2 being an issue in West Midlands marginals. Only 26% of people in the West Midlands think HS2 should go ahead. See last month's YouGov poll for Central News. I write from a West Midlands marginal in the Black Country, from which it would still be (pretty typically) far quicker (and less expensive no doubt) to get from home to London using existing rail after HS2 is built, on the very rare occasions that it is necessary to make that journey.

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

The interesting thing about HS2, which is a bit short of friends, is how much Andy Burnham supports it. He clearly recognises that better connections between London and Manchester would be good for Manchester. It's a problem faced by most of the UK including Edinburgh: do you try to compete with London or do you try and serve it? The latter looks much the safer course.

From a Dundee perspective there is currently 3 flights a day from Dundee to London City up for tender. There may be no takers but it would certainly help.

The ticket prices for a lot of regional airports are subsidised by the EU regional airports fund. There must be uncertainty now as to whether this will be replaced by support from the Gvt going forward.

We had such a service for a while and it was really useful but the airline couldn't make a go of it because of the high landing charges (and charges for being on the ground) at City. It is one of the many reasons that anyone not in the west of London is very anxious we get on with the Heathrow extension.

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

That last is the critical bit. The government says no deal won't be a problem and at the same time that the EU will cave in to avoid no deal.

I'm not saying that there is no a discrepancy there but I think you overstate it. Boris's position, as I understand it, is not that no deal won't be a problem but that we can cope. He remains clear that he wants a deal, just not the deal that is on the table which May negotiated.

The issue is whether the EU also regards a deal as optimal, is even capable of renegotiating at this point and is willing to do so to achieve that deal. I think the importance of the second point is being somewhat undersold here, not least with the collapse of the Italian government. How do the mechanics of the EU allow a material change to the deal even if they were so minded?

If No Deal is manageable for the UK it will be more than manageable for the EU. If it is not manageable for the UK, then the UK will come back for a deal. Either way works for the EU.

The key difference is between manageable and optimal. No deal Brexit is manageable but it is not optimal. And that applies to both parties.

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

That last is the critical bit. The government says no deal won't be a problem and at the same time that the EU will cave in to avoid no deal.

I'm not saying that there is no a discrepancy there but I think you overstate it. Boris's position, as I understand it, is not that no deal won't be a problem but that we can cope. He remains clear that he wants a deal, just not the deal that is on the table which May negotiated.

The issue is whether the EU also regards a deal as optimal, is even capable of renegotiating at this point and is willing to do so to achieve that deal. I think the importance of the second point is being somewhat undersold here, not least with the collapse of the Italian government. How do the mechanics of the EU allow a material change to the deal even if they were so minded?

If No Deal is manageable for the UK it will be more than manageable for the EU. If it is not manageable for the UK, then the UK will come back for a deal. Either way works for the EU.

If No Deal exit is manageable for the UK other EU nations might ultimately follow suit

I doubt it. Even if it is manageable, UK citizens and businesses will still be far less free than they are now, while the UK as a whole will be poorer and entirely dependent on the goodwill of others in term sof international trade.

Plus polling in most EU nations have an absolutely mahoosive majority for remaining. The UK's humiliating behaviour has sealed that.

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Tory England:

‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’

The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".

Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49412835

Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless

Even by the standards of the Tory Party that is a criminally heartless comment.

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Tory England:

‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’

The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".

Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49412835

Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless

You do realise the word is "Home"-less and not "Roof"-less.

People sleeping rough is just the tip of the iceberg, the bit that people see. There are many people who have no proper home but are not sleeping rough, and they often go unseen under the surface.

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DougSeal said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

Is that a squadron of pigs flying by?

"One thing that slightly complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. As long as they think there's a possibility that parliament will block Brexit, they're unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need, so it's going to take a bit of patience."

What part of that statement do you disagree with?

I disagree with "our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit". They speak fluent English and can read our papers. There is no evidence to support your assertion here. Its all "if we are firmer they will budge" bollocks. They accept we are leaving and know if there is no deal then it will hurt us more than them. Or it won't hurt at all - which runs both ways.

That last is the critical bit. The government says no deal won't be a problem and at the same time that the EU will cave in to avoid no deal.

I'm not saying that there is no a discrepancy there but I think you overstate it. Boris's position, as I understand it, is not that no deal won't be a problem but that we can cope. He remains clear that he wants a deal, just not the deal that is on the table which May negotiated.

The issue is whether the EU also regards a deal as optimal, is even capable of renegotiating at this point and is willing to do so to achieve that deal. I think the importance of the second point is being somewhat undersold here, not least with the collapse of the Italian government. How do the mechanics of the EU allow a material change to the deal even if they were so minded?

If No Deal is manageable for the UK it will be more than manageable for the EU. If it is not manageable for the UK, then the UK will come back for a deal. Either way works for the EU.

If No Deal exit is manageable for the UK other EU nations might ultimately follow suit

Yes, all over Europe politicians are looking at the clusterfuck that is Brexit, and thinking "I want a piece of that!"

StuartDickson said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

SouthamObserver said:

StuartDickson said:

CarlottaVance said:

More in that Kantar poll:

Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
Leave No Deal: 23
Leave TM Deal: 9
Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
Remain/Revoke A50: 33
DK: 22

Should the final deal be put to public vote:
Yes: 52
No: 29
DK: 19

How likely Leave by Oct 31?
Net Likely: 46
Net Unlikely: 35
DK: 19

No Deal at just 23%.

If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances?

We live in a country where KFC not getting a delivery results in 999 calls.

Yepp. How many people would be willing or capable to Dig for Victory these days?

We're not at war.

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Tory England:

‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’

The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".

Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49412835

Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless

Lol

Stunning. I suppose the poor souls sleeping rough under a railway arch, or in a hostel, are not homeless because there's a roof over their heads.

As long as you are in a hostel you are not technically homeless no as you have shelter with a roof and walls, you may not have permanent accommodation but that is a different matter

Jesus H Christ. I give up. You win. Well done. Is it time for lunch?

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Tory England:

‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’

The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".

Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49412835

Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless

Lol

Stunning. I suppose the poor souls sleeping rough under a railway arch, or in a hostel, are not homeless because there's a roof over their heads.

As long as you are in a hostel you are not technically homeless no as you have shelter, you may not have permanent accommodation but that is a different matter

A hostel is not a home!

Nor is a flat on some measures, they are accommodation though