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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    I have a slight fear that the HS2 enquiry will result in no change (look who is leading it), but I suppose it will be politically influenced really, and if Boris wants some of that money for other projects, he will plunder it. Wouldn't be the first time the right decision has been made for the wrong reasons.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

    A plausible scenario is:

    Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

    At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

    Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

    We simply could not cope.
    In fact it's worse than that because as there is no longer a UDR the British army would need to make up those numbers. So with preparing to go, being there, and leave after going there aren't even the numbers to police a hard border if the UK wanted the army to do that and nothing else at all.
    In fact it's worst than that because there is no way the RAF could reconstitute SHFNI which would be needed to fly the bin bags out of Crossmaglen.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    You know that "invest in infrastructure with bond prices so low" idea.....

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    Hopefully no go. Improving rail links from Hull to Liverpool should be the government priority.
    Why not both?
    Cost and time. Improving rail links across the North would have a wider impact IMO than improving connections to London from the North. Hull to Liverpool is around the same distance as London to Birmingham yet suffers from an inadequate, slow, overpriced rail service. I'd sooner a Northern powerhouse than further increase the brain drain to London.
    Actually, investing in proper metros for the Top 12 (minus London) cities would have the biggest boost on growth.

    Economic growth in 2019 is largely about urban growth.

    Urban growth is highly correlated with labour catchment.

    Labour catchment is largely about effective metro systems.

    Like Eisenhower’s Highways Act, we need a Johnson Modern Metros Bill.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited August 2019
    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19
  • My quick take on the Kantar poll:
    1. The Tory vote share is way higher than it has been in any other poll. However ...
    2. The broad No Deal/anti-No Deal bloc sizes are in line with all other polls (slightly higher for No Deal, but only slightly). So ...
    3. It is a perfectly credible poll.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

    A plausible scenario is:

    Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

    At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

    Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

    We simply could not cope.
    The proposed border installations and personnel would be Republic of Ireland border installations and personnel. Whilst I am sure we would be supportive in any way we could, the responsibility to protect them would be the Republic's.
    You’d hand over policing responsibility in Northern Ireland to Ireland?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    JohnO said:

    Apparently new Kantar poll (fieldwork 15-19 Aug) showing:

    Cons 42!!
    Lab 28
    LDs 15
    Brexit 5
    SNP 5
    Green 3

    That's horribly believable. The gung ho No Deal talk from Johnson is designed to win over the Brexit Party support. It looks like it might be working. And indeed, why shouldn't it?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    My quick take on the Kantar poll:
    1. The Tory vote share is way higher than it has been in any other poll. However ...
    2. The broad No Deal/anti-No Deal bloc sizes are in line with all other polls (slightly higher for No Deal, but only slightly). So ...
    3. It is a perfectly credible poll.

    Agreed, but the Brexit number looks ridiculous when comparing with historic UKIP performance.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

    A plausible scenario is:

    Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

    At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

    Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

    We simply could not cope.
    The proposed border installations and personnel would be Republic of Ireland border installations and personnel. Whilst I am sure we would be supportive in any way we could, the responsibility to protect them would be the Republic's.
    You’d hand over policing responsibility in Northern Ireland to Ireland?
    I would hand over protecting Republic of Ireland property and personnel on Republic of Ireland land to the Republic of Ireland. Call me old fashioned.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Sorry, I meant for the public vote question. That 52 probably includes those wanting deal v no deal and deal v remain.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    The question is, if a deal isn't possible, how the 22% supporting a deal split between Remain/Revoke and No Deal.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    You think caucuses work? Interesting.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    My parents live in Wigan. Ignoring price, how to they get to Glasgow, Birmingham or London quickly and efficiently? Train every time.
    To Liverpool, Leeds or Hull? Car no question. It is why the M62 is creaking to breaking point. A cross Pennine fast rail link is decades overdue.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    People always say they want to vote on things - but in terms of Leave/Remain the needle has hardly budged despite three years of strum und drang

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1164107999880851456?s=20
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    My quick take on the Kantar poll:
    1. The Tory vote share is way higher than it has been in any other poll. However ...
    2. The broad No Deal/anti-No Deal bloc sizes are in line with all other polls (slightly higher for No Deal, but only slightly). So ...
    3. It is a perfectly credible poll.

    Agreed, but the Brexit number looks ridiculous when comparing with historic UKIP performance.
    Actually, I’d forgotten how badly UKIP did in 2017.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    dixiedean said:

    My parents live in Wigan. Ignoring price, how to they get to Glasgow, Birmingham or London quickly and efficiently? Train every time.
    To Liverpool, Leeds or Hull? Car no question. It is why the M62 is creaking to breaking point. A cross Pennine fast rail link is decades overdue.

    Not disagreeing with the idea of improved transpennine rail links, surely the M62 isn't too much of a problem if your parents are still choosing the car.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    JohnO said:

    Apparently new Kantar poll (fieldwork 15-19 Aug) showing:

    Cons 42!!
    Lab 28
    LDs 15
    Brexit 5
    SNP 5
    Green 3

    That's horribly believable. The gung ho No Deal talk from Johnson is designed to win over the Brexit Party support. It looks like it might be working. And indeed, why shouldn't it?
    Blimey.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    GIN1138 said:
    Extraordinary. Perhaps Boris has indeed tapped into something deep and ancient within the British psyche. Was SeanT correct when he speculated, under Theresa's regime, that the Tories would become the ANC of British politics - in power for ever as reward for the sense of liberty they bequeathed a nation?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Sorry, I meant for the public vote question. That 52 probably includes those wanting deal v no deal and deal v remain.
    And No Deal probably includes people who think it amounts to Remain.

    I tend to take these numbers as thematic rather than biblical.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Since we're adding things together:

    Leave: 45
    Remain: 33
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    dixiedean said:

    My parents live in Wigan. Ignoring price, how to they get to Glasgow, Birmingham or London quickly and efficiently? Train every time.
    To Liverpool, Leeds or Hull? Car no question. It is why the M62 is creaking to breaking point. A cross Pennine fast rail link is decades overdue.

    Now is the time to build it. Government can borrow via gilts are silly low rate.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

    A plausible scenario is:

    Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

    At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

    Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

    We simply could not cope.
    The proposed border installations and personnel would be Republic of Ireland border installations and personnel. Whilst I am sure we would be supportive in any way we could, the responsibility to protect them would be the Republic's.
    You’d hand over policing responsibility in Northern Ireland to Ireland?
    Control!!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    GIN1138 said:

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    The question is, if a deal isn't possible, how the 22% supporting a deal split between Remain/Revoke and No Deal.
    I believe where this has been done before, Remain has won out over No Deal.

    However the last polling I saw on that was a few months ago.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Sorry, I meant for the public vote question. That 52 probably includes those wanting deal v no deal and deal v remain.
    And No Deal probably includes people who think it amounts to Remain.

    I tend to take these numbers as thematic rather than biblical.
    You'd have to have not listed to the radio, watched the TV, surfed the net for the last three months to not know what No Deal means.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Sorry, I meant for the public vote question. That 52 probably includes those wanting deal v no deal and deal v remain.
    And No Deal probably includes people who think it amounts to Remain.

    I tend to take these numbers as thematic rather than biblical.
    You'd have to have not listed to the radio, watched the TV, surfed the net for the last three months to not know what No Deal means.
    An end to intrastat.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    GIN1138 said:
    Kantar don't prompt Greens or BXP, so maybe it is methodological issue? This is a huge outlier..
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Kantar poll might be accurate. No particular reason to assume it isn't. However, it's worth noting that it uniquely has Labour + Conservatives at 70%, while every other pollster has that combination in the 50s at present (this is also true even before allowing for their adjustments for false recall of vote at the last election). This suggests that their sample looks quite different from other pollsters'.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Sorry, I meant for the public vote question. That 52 probably includes those wanting deal v no deal and deal v remain.
    And No Deal probably includes people who think it amounts to Remain.

    I tend to take these numbers as thematic rather than biblical.
    You'd have to have not listed to the radio, watched the TV, surfed the net for the last three months to not know what No Deal means.
    I think you are overestimating the interest and perhaps comprehension of large numbers of voters.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Sorry, I meant for the public vote question. That 52 probably includes those wanting deal v no deal and deal v remain.
    And No Deal probably includes people who think it amounts to Remain.

    I tend to take these numbers as thematic rather than biblical.
    You'd have to have not listed to the radio, watched the TV, surfed the net for the last three months to not know what No Deal means.
    My window cleaner thought ‘Boris’ becoming PM was great until I told him he was a Tory !
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    My parents live in Wigan. Ignoring price, how to they get to Glasgow, Birmingham or London quickly and efficiently? Train every time.
    To Liverpool, Leeds or Hull? Car no question. It is why the M62 is creaking to breaking point. A cross Pennine fast rail link is decades overdue.

    Not disagreeing with the idea of improved transpennine rail links, surely the M62 isn't too much of a problem if your parents are still choosing the car.
    No. It is purely the hideously antiquated state of the alternative.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Sorry, I meant for the public vote question. That 52 probably includes those wanting deal v no deal and deal v remain.
    And No Deal probably includes people who think it amounts to Remain.

    I tend to take these numbers as thematic rather than biblical.
    You'd have to have not listed to the radio, watched the TV, surfed the net for the last three months to not know what No Deal means.
    I think you are overestimating the interest and perhaps comprehension of large numbers of voters.
    I thought remainers - and I'd assume those who want Deal v Remain to mostly be remainers - were supposed to be clued up?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    And the outcomes of this higher spending are?

    https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1164110280546299906?s=20

    The health outcomes of this spending is the biggest increase in HIV in Glasgow since the '80s.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Sorry, I meant for the public vote question. That 52 probably includes those wanting deal v no deal and deal v remain.
    And No Deal probably includes people who think it amounts to Remain.

    I tend to take these numbers as thematic rather than biblical.
    You'd have to have not listed to the radio, watched the TV, surfed the net for the last three months to not know what No Deal means.
    That's probably a large percentage of the population..
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    tlg86 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Does it say what the alternative to the deal is?
    Remain/Revoke 33
    EFTA+/May’s Deal 22
    No Deal 23

    As we see, Leaving with a Deal is probably the median opinion, but Leaving with a Deal is also the least favourite option.
    Since we're adding things together:

    Leave: 45
    Remain: 33
    But not leave at any costs.
    In my view grouping as you have done is not helpful.

    Polling has been relatively stable:

    Most people think the vote to Brexit was a mistake.
    But most people also think that having voted to Brexit, we should do so.

    Where “most” means narrow majorities.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    JohnO said:

    Apparently new Kantar poll (fieldwork 15-19 Aug) showing:

    Cons 42!!
    Lab 28
    LDs 15
    Brexit 5
    SNP 5
    Green 3

    That's horribly believable. The gung ho No Deal talk from Johnson is designed to win over the Brexit Party support. It looks like it might be working. And indeed, why shouldn't it?
    It rose quickly, could fall quickly, then could rise quickly again. Expect increasingly strident words from Boris as his 'negotiations' do not work, to keep the BXP on side.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Brom said:

    You know that "invest in infrastructure with bond prices so low" idea.....

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    Hopefully no go. Improving rail links from Hull to Liverpool should be the government priority.
    Even most Londers want the government to invest more in northern rail improvements.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    You know that "invest in infrastructure with bond prices so low" idea.....

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    How is this news?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    The Kantar poll might be accurate. No particular reason to assume it isn't. However, it's worth noting that it uniquely has Labour + Conservatives at 70%, while every other pollster has that combination in the 50s at present (this is also true even before allowing for their adjustments for false recall of vote at the last election). This suggests that their sample looks quite different from other pollsters'.

    They didn't prompt BXP or Green, so they would have had to write in Other and then write in BXP or Green. That to me presents an issue in comparing it to polls that do prompt. Maybe Kantar is correct and the field is wrong, as we know their are issues with prompting, but *shrug*
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Oh dear.
    Boris really *is* May in fast forward.
    Can anyone reminds me what comes next?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Some other nuggets:

    The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019 [sic]. There are a number of actions which people might take ahead of this date. Have you already or are you likely to... - Stockpile food or medicine


    EuRef Vote:
    Have done/ Likely / Won't / Not Sure
    Leave: 6 / 14 / 63 / 8
    Remain: 5 / 20 / 46 / 19

    So it looks like "Project Fear" is mainly scaring Remainers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Am increasingly convinced the possible snap election will be a 1992 one.
    One that medium to long term will be a great one to lose...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited August 2019
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    JohnO said:

    Apparently new Kantar poll (fieldwork 15-19 Aug) showing:

    Cons 42!!
    Lab 28
    LDs 15
    Brexit 5
    SNP 5
    Green 3

    Boris isn't going to get an election with those numbers - Corbyn will insist on an extension to kill it.

    Mind you those Brexit numbers are too low..
    Agreed. If the Tories are anywhere near 40% then Corbyn will chicken out.
    He didn't last time. Those figures are actually better than the polls when May called it.
    UK GE 2017 was unique. That kind of fuck-up only happens once in a lifetime. Probably less often than that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Oh dear.
    Boris really *is* May in fast forward.
    Can anyone reminds me what comes next?
    Dementia tax?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Oh dear.
    Boris really *is* May in fast forward.
    Can anyone reminds me what comes next?
    You do realise most people don't think he will get a bigger majority than Blair don't you?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Some other nuggets:

    The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019 [sic]. There are a number of actions which people might take ahead of this date. Have you already or are you likely to... - Stockpile food or medicine


    EuRef Vote:
    Have done/ Likely / Won't / Not Sure
    Leave: 6 / 14 / 63 / 8
    Remain: 5 / 20 / 46 / 19

    So it looks like "Project Fear" is mainly scaring Remainers.

    Makes sense, as Leavers have absolutely no idea what Leaving entails.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    I've pointed out repeatedly that a united Brexit party (Be it Farage or Johnson's) is stronger on a FPTP basis than remain would be compared to a referendum. Outwith Scotland of course.

    The remain pools are overly concentrated in London and the major cities which are strongly for Labour (The who knows party) anyway.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

    A plausible scenario is:

    Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

    At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

    Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

    We simply could not cope.
    The proposed border installations and personnel would be Republic of Ireland border installations and personnel. Whilst I am sure we would be supportive in any way we could, the responsibility to protect them would be the Republic's.
    You’d hand over policing responsibility in Northern Ireland to Ireland?
    The Brit Nats haven’t thought this through.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited August 2019
    nunuone said:

    Brom said:

    You know that "invest in infrastructure with bond prices so low" idea.....

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    Hopefully no go. Improving rail links from Hull to Liverpool should be the government priority.
    Even most Londers want the government to invest more in northern rail improvements.

    We can do all these projects. At gilt rates this low even for long debt, the social and economic benefits of these projects far outweigh the debt costs.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Oh dear.
    Boris really *is* May in fast forward.
    Can anyone reminds me what comes next?
    Dementia tax?
    No strong and stable and locking CoE in a cupboard
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    JohnO said:

    Apparently new Kantar poll (fieldwork 15-19 Aug) showing:

    Cons 42!!
    Lab 28
    LDs 15
    Brexit 5
    SNP 5
    Green 3

    Boris isn't going to get an election with those numbers - Corbyn will insist on an extension to kill it.

    Mind you those Brexit numbers are too low..
    Agreed. If the Tories are anywhere near 40% then Corbyn will chicken out.
    He didn't last time. Those figures are actually better than the polls when May called it.
    UK GE 2017 was unique. That kind of fuck-up only happens once in a lifetime. Probably less often than that.
    Harsh realities of social care won't be the centre piece of Boris' soft focus optimism.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    My parents live in Wigan. Ignoring price, how to they get to Glasgow, Birmingham or London quickly and efficiently? Train every time.
    To Liverpool, Leeds or Hull? Car no question. It is why the M62 is creaking to breaking point. A cross Pennine fast rail link is decades overdue.

    Not disagreeing with the idea of improved transpennine rail links, surely the M62 isn't too much of a problem if your parents are still choosing the car.
    No. It is purely the hideously antiquated state of the alternative.
    I suppose the question for a Transpennine HS route is, which places would be served? I'd suggest Wigan would not be.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    That “public vote” split is an eye opener.
    Yepp. The ground has shifted.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    Boris needs to strike while the iron's hot here. He may never get this amount of political capital again. Prorogue parliament, tell the EU to stick its trading links, call a GE, promise Trump he'll assist with any US armed takeover of Greenland. Boris's place in history would be assured.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think the UK is as bothered as Ireland by a hard border.

    A plausible scenario is:

    Hard border = resurgence of terrorist activity = need for British troops to protect border posts and officials.

    At the height of Op Banner there were 40,000-odd forces on the ground sent by the UK government (HMF, plus UDR plus RUC).

    Those days are gone. The army is now around 80,000 strong so to replicate the Op Banner manning would take the entire British army. Leaving no wiggle room for quelling any troublesome middle Eastern dictators or a pesky Russia for example.

    We simply could not cope.
    The proposed border installations and personnel would be Republic of Ireland border installations and personnel. Whilst I am sure we would be supportive in any way we could, the responsibility to protect them would be the Republic's.
    You’d hand over policing responsibility in Northern Ireland to Ireland?
    I would hand over protecting Republic of Ireland property and personnel on Republic of Ireland land to the Republic of Ireland. Call me old fashioned.
    Behold the magnanimity of the mighty imperialist.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Oh dear.
    Boris really *is* May in fast forward.
    Can anyone reminds me what comes next?
    He accuses the other parties of blocking Brexit, accuses the EU of interfering in UK politics, and calls an election?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    GIN1138 said:
    Extraordinary. Perhaps Boris has indeed tapped into something deep and ancient within the British psyche. Was SeanT correct when he speculated, under Theresa's regime, that the Tories would become the ANC of British politics - in power for ever as reward for the sense of liberty they bequeathed a nation?
    A keeper.
  • More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    Those are very interesting. I am trying to reconcile them with the headline voting figures. The only way I can do is with the idea that for a lot of voters a Corbyn government is worse than No Deal.

  • More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    My parents live in Wigan. Ignoring price, how to they get to Glasgow, Birmingham or London quickly and efficiently? Train every time.
    To Liverpool, Leeds or Hull? Car no question. It is why the M62 is creaking to breaking point. A cross Pennine fast rail link is decades overdue.

    Not disagreeing with the idea of improved transpennine rail links, surely the M62 isn't too much of a problem if your parents are still choosing the car.
    No. It is purely the hideously antiquated state of the alternative.
    I suppose the question for a Transpennine HS route is, which places would be served? I'd suggest Wigan would not be.
    That is a point. However, either Wigan or Warrington would have to be, to connect with the London to Glasgow main line.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    The Kantar Poll has to be wrong. No way are TIGFC polling as high as 1%.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    and yet hes still at 42%. Suggests people are more concerned about keeping Corbyn out than what type of Brexit we might face.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391
    CatMan said:
    That looks about right for the moment. This is why Johnson has no other option besides no deal. What happens once we do no deal is anyone's guess.

    Johnson is treading a very fine line, but for now it is working beautifully.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    My parents live in Wigan. Ignoring price, how to they get to Glasgow, Birmingham or London quickly and efficiently? Train every time.
    To Liverpool, Leeds or Hull? Car no question. It is why the M62 is creaking to breaking point. A cross Pennine fast rail link is decades overdue.

    Not disagreeing with the idea of improved transpennine rail links, surely the M62 isn't too much of a problem if your parents are still choosing the car.
    No. It is purely the hideously antiquated state of the alternative.
    I suppose the question for a Transpennine HS route is, which places would be served? I'd suggest Wigan would not be.
    Leeds -> Manchester
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    So the good news on the GERS figures is that the deficit is down just over £1bn from last year to this.

    The bad news is even current expenditure remains in deficit with no provision for capex. To put that in perspective the UK overall fiscal balance remains a deficit of 1.1% of GDP but the current figure is actually in surplus by 0.8% of GDP. Scotland has a deficit in excess of 4%.

    More good news is that revenues have risen quite fast this last year, faster than for the UK as a whole (5.1% vs 4.5%). This no doubt reflects the higher taxes charged by Nicola's government on HRTs. Whether that will be sustainable in the medium term remains to be seen.

    Overall these figures show a modest improvement in Scotland's fiscal balance and a very modest step towards sustainability. In the last few months we have seen 2 significant gas fields come online in the north sea. I think that is likely to at least offset the long term decline of north sea income for a while.

    I do not want independence. I will never want independence. I am British and proudly so. But if Scotland is going to go the route of independence they will need a series of better years to get even close to some sort of sustainability. From a desperately poor base this is a small step in that direction.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Tory England:

    ‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’

    The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".

    Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49412835
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    Those are very interesting. I am trying to reconcile them with the headline voting figures. The only way I can do is with the idea that for a lot of voters a Corbyn government is worse than No Deal.

    Perhaps the sheer force of Boris's charisma, audacity and spunk transcends Brexit, nay transcends even politics itself. In him the public sees the personification of everything they crave in life but have always been too timid or mediocre to achieve, and are just compelled to reward him for it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    My parents live in Wigan. Ignoring price, how to they get to Glasgow, Birmingham or London quickly and efficiently? Train every time.
    To Liverpool, Leeds or Hull? Car no question. It is why the M62 is creaking to breaking point. A cross Pennine fast rail link is decades overdue.

    Not disagreeing with the idea of improved transpennine rail links, surely the M62 isn't too much of a problem if your parents are still choosing the car.
    No. It is purely the hideously antiquated state of the alternative.
    I suppose the question for a Transpennine HS route is, which places would be served? I'd suggest Wigan would not be.
    Leeds -> Manchester
    That would be a start. Far too unambitious though.
    And, neither of those cities are on either the West or East Coast main lines. Wigan or Warrington to York stopping and Mcr and Leeds.
    If you are doing that add Liverpool and Hull.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    Those are very interesting. I am trying to reconcile them with the headline voting figures. The only way I can do is with the idea that for a lot of voters a Corbyn government is worse than No Deal.

    Perhaps the sheer force of Boris's charisma, audacity and spunk transcends Brexit, nay transcends even politics itself. In him the public sees the personification of everything they crave in life but have always been too timid or mediocre to achieve, and are just compelled to reward him for it.
    Boris’s spunk.

    It has come to this.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    Those are very interesting. I am trying to reconcile them with the headline voting figures. The only way I can do is with the idea that for a lot of voters a Corbyn government is worse than No Deal.

    Or a lot of voters don't believe that Johnson is going to leave without a deal. After all, he said himself it's a million to one chance.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    JohnO said:

    Apparently new Kantar poll (fieldwork 15-19 Aug) showing:

    Cons 42!!
    Lab 28
    LDs 15
    Brexit 5
    SNP 5
    Green 3

    Amazing. Very low LD, Green and Brexit numbers.
    Mor3e like amazingly high LD numbers, they are going nowhere apart from getting a few protest votes , most will stick with Cons or Lab or sit on their hands.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    geoffw said:

    More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

    By October 31st?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited August 2019

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

    The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

    Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances? ;)
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    Former HS2 Ltd chairman Douglas Oakervee will lead the inquiry, with Lord Berkeley - a long-term critic of the high-speed railway scheme - acting as his deputy.

    Oakervee's role was already known. However, Lord Berkeley's appointment seems to me to be highly significant, heralding an enquiry whose conclusion cannot be predicted and must mean that the government is doing more than just going through the motions.

    Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    The Kantar poll might be accurate. No particular reason to assume it isn't. However, it's worth noting that it uniquely has Labour + Conservatives at 70%, while every other pollster has that combination in the 50s at present (this is also true even before allowing for their adjustments for false recall of vote at the last election). This suggests that their sample looks quite different from other pollsters'.

    Anthony Wells is always telling us that a surprising poll result is more often than not an outlier, and we should wait for other poll results before putting too much weight on it. This btw is what we should be doing with all voting intention polls, taking a mental average over the last 2 to 4 weeks of polls.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    GIN1138 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

    The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

    Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances? ;)
    We live in a country where KFC not getting a delivery results in 999 calls.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

    All that matters to Boris IMO... to hell with the country, vote for Boris!!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited August 2019

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    Narrator: "Southam is 86 years old."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    GIN1138 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

    The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

    Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances? ;)
    GIN1138 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

    The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

    Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances? ;)
    After a morning looking at some of the comments on here I am expecting at least this:
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=ghostbusters+end+of+the+world&view=detail&mid=BD7ECB58926AEADAA51DBD7ECB58926AEADAA51D&FORM=VIRE
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/1164100951168421888?s=20

    I suppose you could call it the "Union Dividend"......

    LOL, another set of rigged numbers, get a life.
    Rigged in what way, may I ask? I dont know how it is calculated but given any conclusion alone does not prove a rigging, what have they done to rig that conclusion?
    They just look at overall numbers and have no idea how to split but always manage to make Scotland borrowing most of the money whilst rUK borrows almost zero. They are just made up bollox as it is purely a made up split of the total numbers , used to try and promote how munificent the union is to Scotland. Complete and utter lies and not bearing any resemblance of how Scotland would be if independent.
    It suits halfwitted rabid unionists like Carlotta that want to crow about how bad Scotland is , nothing else. Scottish Government are given a set of rigged numbers and have to get on with it as there are no other numbers.
    Q: Who produces GERS?

    A: GERS is produced by Scottish Government statisticians. It is designated as a National Statistics product, which means that it is produced independently of Scottish Ministers and has been assessed by the UK Statistics Authority as being produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics. This means the statistics have been found to meet user needs, to be methodologically sound, explained well and produced free of political interference.


    https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers/
    YAWN YAWN YAWN , it is taken from rigged numbers supplied by UK, they have no other option as UK costs are not split out anywhere. It is the UK guess of where money goes and it is very convenient that Scotland at 8% has most of the UK deficit, who would have imagined that with UK making up the numbers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    GIN1138 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

    The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

    Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances? ;)
    On the other hand, there are plenty of others who expect their particular hobby horse to be miraculously solved overnight.
    Everything from no foreign languages on buses, through to a hefty rise in benefits, libraries staying open, and, of course, the handball rule.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

    All that matters to Boris IMO... to hell with the country, vote for Boris!!
    Corbyn's made this calculation too.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

    The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

    Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances? ;)
    We live in a country where KFC not getting a delivery results in 999 calls.

    Yepp. How many people would be willing or capable to Dig for Victory these days?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    Those are very interesting. I am trying to reconcile them with the headline voting figures. The only way I can do is with the idea that for a lot of voters a Corbyn government is worse than No Deal.

    Perhaps the sheer force of Boris's charisma, audacity and spunk transcends Brexit, nay transcends even politics itself. In him the public sees the personification of everything they crave in life but have always been too timid or mediocre to achieve, and are just compelled to reward him for it.
    Boris’s spunk.

    It has come to this.
    He's spaffing it liberally in the face of a grateful nation it would seem.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

    All that matters to Boris IMO... to hell with the country, vote for Boris!!
    Boris should also scrap the Heathrow expansion while he's at it. Yes, profound and difficult questions concerning the country's vital infrastructure and long-term prospects will be binned, but think of the short-term publicity!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    geoffw said:

    More polls like this could help get a renegotiated WA. At least I hope so.

    Why? The EU are not impressed by Boris-friendly polls. They have different priorities so the UK has made its decision and can be left to deal with it.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    "Government finances weaker than expected in July"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49418751
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    GIN1138 said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    No Deal at just 23%.

    If BoZo does this then the Tories are crippled for a generation.

    Yep - I think he'll be the last Tory PM to win a national election in my lifetime.

    Surely it depends what actually happens in the event of No Deal?

    The bar has been set very, very, very high for complete and total catastrophe

    Anything short of End Of Days and the sky falling in won't be viewed as being too bad in the circumstances? ;)
    But the theory of "problems" will be very different from enduring "problems".

    Voters get a low more antsy about something actually happening, rather than theoretically happening.

    And that's setting aside that the UK's Chief Clown has assured said voters that it will be plain (plane?) sailing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1164104166417031168?s=20

    Politically, it will also play well with Johnson's bid to win back Brexit Party supporters.

    All that matters to Boris IMO... to hell with the country, vote for Boris!!
    Boris should also scrap the Heathrow expansion while he's at it. Yes, profound and difficult questions concerning the country's vital infrastructure and long-term prospects will be binned, but think of the short-term publicity!
    Isn't Heathrow "On review" too ?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    dixiedean said:

    More in that Kantar poll:

    Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?
    Leave No Deal: 23
    Leave TM Deal: 9
    Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
    Remain/Revoke A50: 33
    DK: 22

    Should the final deal be put to public vote:
    Yes: 52
    No: 29
    DK: 19

    How likely Leave by Oct 31?
    Net Likely: 46
    Net Unlikely: 35
    DK: 19

    Those are very interesting. I am trying to reconcile them with the headline voting figures. The only way I can do is with the idea that for a lot of voters a Corbyn government is worse than No Deal.

    Perhaps the sheer force of Boris's charisma, audacity and spunk transcends Brexit, nay transcends even politics itself. In him the public sees the personification of everything they crave in life but have always been too timid or mediocre to achieve, and are just compelled to reward him for it.
    Boris’s spunk.

    It has come to this.
    He's spaffing it liberally in the face of a grateful nation it would seem.
    We're gratefully lapping it up
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    nunuone said:

    And the outcomes of this higher spending are?

    https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1164110280546299906?s=20

    The health outcomes of this spending is the biggest increase in HIV in Glasgow since the '80s.
    More bollox from unionist arseholes. The Scottish NHS numbers are far superior to NHS England. Using a handlful of junkies getting HIV from dirty needles is pretty pathetic even for the unionists on here.
    Look at the state of your NHS in England before putting your foot in your big mouth.
This discussion has been closed.