politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?
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Once we're out we're out, as R Nabavi explained to me. The EU would have to act with unequalled alacrity and unprecedented flexibility to *fix* Brexit after we Brexit.IanB2 said:
Raising interest rates isn’t going to help if the currency is collapsing because the economy is going down the Brexit toilet. They won’t even try to defend it that way. The solution in such a case is to retreat to May’s deal, or something as close to it as is possible at the time, ASAP. Assuming the EU is willing to listen to us by then.OnlyLivingBoy said:
If the UK gets embroiled in an EM style currency crisis there might be serious hikes. Nobody ever defended their currency by hiking 25bp.JBriskinindyref2 said:
A hike nowadays is 0.25 - As I previously posted, for this reason, bets on this market should be limited to 0.25 to 1.25OnlyLivingBoy said:
It is unlikely but certainly not no chance. I think the most likely values are 75bp, 10bp and 25bp. But in a no deal, GBP crash scenario the BoE could end up hiking rates to defend the currency. They certainly see that as a possibility themselves.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Value betting blah blah blah blah - change the odds into percentage chances blah blah blah - Yes I know how betting works.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I don't think 2% or higher is likely, just that it may be marginally more likely than is priced and therefore is value. You do know how betting works, right?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Lordy - another 2pc or higher fan. Are you a Citeh boy or something ?OnlyLivingBoy said:One of the most likely numbers is missing: 0.1%. The Bank will not cut all the way to zero but they now believe that the effective lower bound is below 0.25%, and I think around 0.1% is where they see it. In my view there is value at 0.75% (if we avoid no deal or if the Bank waits a few months before acting) and also at 2% or above (in case we enter a full on currency crisis, unlikely but maybe not as unlikely as priced). Laying 0% would also be profitable, for the reason given above.
And yes, I do work in finance.
And there's absolutely no chance of 2pc interest rates this year.
That said, Brexit could be so bad they will do so.0 -
JOE DENLY!0
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Great catchTheScreamingEagles said:JOE DENLY!
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As i type you can get 25/1 against England winning.TheScreamingEagles said:JOE DENLY!
That seems a little generous with Archer this venomous.0 -
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.IanB2 said:
Another Leaver who can’t count?Philip_Thompson said:
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.DougSeal said:
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?Philip_Thompson said:
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.Streeter said:
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.Byronic said:
.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.IanB2 said:
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.Byronic said:
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en
As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.0 -
People in the Nordic countries have been able to do that long before the EU.DougSeal said:
I think the point is that the EU allows Germans to live freely and work in areas that were once an integral part of Germany, and to travel to and fro without restriction. The Irish see it similarly with respect to NI.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
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People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.DougSeal said:
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.IanB2 said:
Another Leaver who can’t count?Philip_Thompson said:
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.DougSeal said:
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?Philip_Thompson said:
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.Streeter said:
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.Byronic said:
.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.IanB2 said:
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.Byronic said:
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en
As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.0 -
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.DougSeal said:
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.IanB2 said:
Another Leaver who can’t count?Philip_Thompson said:
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.DougSeal said:
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?Philip_Thompson said:
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.Streeter said:
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.Byronic said:
.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.IanB2 said:
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.Byronic said:
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en
As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.0 -
Why on earth are Australia taking runs?0
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“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”Byronic said:
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.DougSeal said:
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.IanB2 said:
Another Leaver who can’t count?Philip_Thompson said:
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.DougSeal said:
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?Philip_Thompson said:
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.Streeter said:
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.Byronic said:
.... except that Schengen borders.IanB2 said:
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.Byronic said:
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.0 -
I wondered that. Seems unwiseByronic said:Why on earth are Australia taking runs?
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“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”Byronic said:
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.DougSeal said:
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.IanB2 said:
Another Leaver who can’t count?Philip_Thompson said:
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.DougSeal said:
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?Philip_Thompson said:
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.Streeter said:
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.Byronic said:
.... except that Schengen borders.IanB2 said:
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.Byronic said:Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.0 -
If you have an Apple phone, invest in a decent phone instead.DougSeal said:But it doesn’t work. You’ll see from the link that you need an Android phone to use the system or go to a local register office. “So get access to an Android phone” you say. Well, maybe, but doesn’t the fact that they cannot sort out an app for any other operating system suggest to you there is a problem here? There is. The Android app works badly, the delays are huge, local register offices are not set up for this, so many/most end up having to post their passports in anyway.
However, for those poor souls who want to yuse Apple, they will be able to soon:
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/home-office-begins-testing-eu-settled-status-app-apple-devices
https://www.nfcworld.com/2019/06/07/362943/confirmed-ios-13-to-include-support-for-nfc-passport-reading/
The problem is that Apple tied the NFC stuff up so tightly that third-party apps couldn't access the necessary gubbins. So blame Apple, not the government.
RF is wonderful.0 -
As the cathedral loving GRU agent flies?Sunil_Prasannan said:
60 miles = London to Canterburyydoethur said:
To be exact, 103km East of Berlin. It's not what I would call close.Byronic said:
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.0 -
I don't think it will be anywhere near that hard. There will be a period when it is tricky, but it suits both sides to have free-ish movement of LABOUR, and that will be the outcome. Eventually.DougSeal said:
“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”Byronic said:
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.DougSeal said:
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.IanB2 said:
Another Leaver who can’t count?Philip_Thompson said:
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.DougSeal said:
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?Philip_Thompson said:
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.Streeter said:
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.Byronic said:
.... except that Schengen borders.IanB2 said:
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.Byronic said:
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.0 -
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?0 -
Well that's the draw nailed on, the umpires say the light isn't good enough for the fast bowlers to bowl.0
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Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.Byronic said:
I don't think it will be anywhere near that hard. There will be a period when it is tricky, but it suits both sides to have free-ish movement of LABOUR, and that will be the outcome. Eventually.DougSeal said:
“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”Byronic said:
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.DougSeal said:
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.IanB2 said:
Another Leaver who can’t count?Philip_Thompson said:
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.DougSeal said:
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?Philip_Thompson said:
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.Streeter said:
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.Byronic said:
.... except that Schengen borders.IanB2 said:
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.Byronic said:
g.Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.0 -
Rain band @ Newbury T-60, Windsor @ T-20.on Met Office.0
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No more Archer.
Aussies have been saved by the rain it seems.0 -
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it doesPhilip_Thompson said:
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?0 -
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.Byronic said:Why on earth are Australia taking runs?
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?0 -
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.DougSeal said:
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it doesPhilip_Thompson said:
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.1 -
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
A drop is not what we needed now.0
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Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulatePhilip_Thompson said:
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.DougSeal said:
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it doesPhilip_Thompson said:
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.0 -
Given we're running out of light and time why bother reviewing something you know is not out?0
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And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
I am native English.DougSeal said:
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulatePhilip_Thompson said:
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.DougSeal said:
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it doesPhilip_Thompson said:
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.0 -
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
Of course. But they should be taking the easy singles, not possible run outs.Drutt said:
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.Byronic said:Why on earth are Australia taking runs?
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
Anyway it’s a draw now. But what a game. Archer has transformed the series. Incredible debut.0 -
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
Moral victory - we took more of their wickets than they did of ours.0
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All these friendly handshakes. Seems so wrong. They should be punching each other or something 0
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“Native” English. Your p What’s your attitude to “non-native” English. Are they less English somehow?Philip_Thompson said:
I am native English.DougSeal said:
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulatePhilip_Thompson said:
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.DougSeal said:
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it doesPhilip_Thompson said:
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.0 -
We should have given them a resounding rendition of 'Get your shit stars off our flag'CatMan said:All these friendly handshakes. Seems so wrong. They should be punching each other or something
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Moral victory - we disabled their best batsman...MarqueeMark said:Moral victory - we took more of their wickets than they did of ours.
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Pathetic.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.RobD said:
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
Your failure to understand how strong the historical feeling is in Ireland is betrayed by your childish insults.Philip_Thompson said:
Pathetic.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
-
What the actual f**k!?DougSeal said:
“Native” English. Your p What’s your attitude to “non-native” English. Are they less English somehow?Philip_Thompson said:
I am native English.DougSeal said:
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulatePhilip_Thompson said:
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.DougSeal said:
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it doesPhilip_Thompson said:
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.
Are you just trolling now? You said "your native Australia" to someone you know is English, then you object to me saying I'm native English?
My attitude to "non-native" English is they're welcome here, I support migration from around the globe. Just as I was welcome halfway around the globe for years too.
The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better. Our discrimination against non-Europeans is no better.0 -
Your arse-licking love of the EU is absurd. They’re tired of us “pissing about”?!DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Perhaps we are “pissing about” because the EU has offered us a deal so bad it feels better to Remain. And why have the EU done that? Because that was their intention all along, as admitted by their lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who told a French newspaper at the start “I will have done my job if the exit terms are so bad the British would prefer to stay”
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1087110446484779008?s=200 -
Its fine, Archer can get back to doing that on Thursday.CatMan said:All these friendly handshakes. Seems so wrong. They should be punching each other or something
0 -
We don’t have a White Europe policy. You just need an EU passport. We let in plenty of non EU immigrants. The Australian policy was based purely on skin colour.Philip_Thompson said:
What the actual f**k!?DougSeal said:
“Native” English. Your p What’s your attitude to “non-native” English. Are they less English somehow?Philip_Thompson said:
I am native English.DougSeal said:
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulatePhilip_Thompson said:
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.DougSeal said:
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it doesPhilip_Thompson said:
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.
Are you just trolling now? You said "your native Australia" to someone you know is English, then you object to me saying I'm native English?
My attitude to "non-native" English is they're welcome here, I support migration from around the globe. Just as I was welcome halfway around the globe for years too.
The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better. Our discrimination against non-Europeans is no better.0 -
We don't have a White Europe immigration policy. You've elided a "Europe immigration policy" into a "White Europe immigration policy" because most of Europe is white. But the immigration policy is not dependent on the colour.Philip_Thompson said:...The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better...
0 -
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of borders meaning you can't actually leave ain't solely our problem.DougSeal said:
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.RobD said:
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.0 -
The Bank doesn't act in isolation: they are subject to political pressures from the government, and from external economic factors.Drutt said:
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.Byronic said:Why on earth are Australia taking runs?
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
Simply, "defending the pound" comes a poor second to maintaining consumer confidence.
But here's the issue. Keeping the UK from recession requires consumers to continue to spend more than they consume. But every day that continues, the UK's debts to the rest of the world continue to rise.
In May 1997, just 22 years ago, the UK had a net financial position of around 60% of GDP. This meant there were regular remittances from abroad, and that we could run a modest trade deficit, and still cover the current account.
But two decades of "maintaining consumer confidence" has flipped that number around. We now owe something like 50-55% of GDP. We've gone from being one of the most secure large countries in the world, to being Spain on the verge of the Eurozone crisis in less than a generation.
This is a classic unstable equilibrium. GDP growth is good because we generate GDP by selling each other imports. (An iPhone bought on Oxford Street with borrowed money generates far more British GDP than Chinese.) And because we're growing, money comes in, and that allows us to keep borrowing and spending.
But it cannot continue indefinitely.0 -
Depressing.rcs1000 said:
The Bank doesn't act in isolation: they are subject to political pressures from the government, and from external economic factors.Drutt said:
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.Byronic said:Why on earth are Australia taking runs?
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
Simply, "defending the pound" comes a poor second to maintaining consumer confidence.
But here's the issue. Keeping the UK from recession requires consumers to continue to spend more than they consume. But every day that continues, the UK's debts to the rest of the world continue to rise.
In May 1997, just 22 years ago, the UK had a net financial position of around 60% of GDP. This meant there were regular remittances from abroad, and that we could run a modest trade deficit, and still cover the current account.
But two decades of "maintaining consumer confidence" has flipped that number around. We now owe something like 50-55% of GDP. We've gone from being one of the most secure large countries in the world, to being Spain on the verge of the Eurozone crisis in less than a generation.
This is a classic unstable equilibrium. GDP growth is good because we generate GDP by selling each other imports. (An iPhone bought on Oxford Street with borrowed money generates far more British GDP than Chinese.) And because we're growing, money comes in, and that allows us to keep borrowing and spending.
But it cannot continue indefinitely.
You could, however, say the same about the eurozone. It has so many problems, so many inbuilt flaws and guaranteed negatives, it should have fragmented already. Yet it continues. Apparently indefinitely.0 -
Great test but Jason Roy and David Warner must be wondering if they could catch a cold between themselves0
-
They are addressing the problem. Problem is, they're addressing it in a way we don't like. And we're addressing it in a way that involves ignoring it and hoping magic tech or somebody else will fix it for us. Yay. Good old us.MarqueeMark said:
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of borders meaning you can't actually leave ain't solely our problem.DougSeal said:
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.RobD said:
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.0 -
They agreed a deal with Her Majesty's Government. Then HMG was unable to get the deal through parliament.MarqueeMark said:
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of borders meaning you can't actually leave ain't solely our problem.DougSeal said:
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.RobD said:
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.
The EU then essentially disbanded for the summer, thanks to the changing of the commission and the EU elections.
The 31 October deadline was stupid one, born out of the Macron's desire to make political points. It essentially leaves no opportunity for any new PM to renegotiate. So we are left with three choices: (1) No Deal (which I think is the most likely scenario), (2) Extension (which is unlikely because the route to it in the UK is so tortuous), or (3) passing the existing deal, which seems vanishingly unlikely.
The EU should have made the deadline 30 November. That would at least have allowed Boris Johnson to have a month with the new Commission. In that time, it's possible a deal (or at leas the Heads of Term) would have been achievable.
But at the same time, Boris Johnson should have made the public deadline "end of the year". He was just as foolish for accepting 31 October.0 -
For some Leavers (Andrew Lilico springs to mind, as he does so often when discussing stupid), yes, that is the approach. Some UK politicians find it very difficult to get their head around Ireland.DougSeal said:
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.RobD said:
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.0 -
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.Byronic said:
Depressing.rcs1000 said:
The Bank doesn't act in isolation: they are subject to political pressures from the government, and from external economic factors.Drutt said:
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.Byronic said:Why on earth are Australia taking runs?
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
Simply, "defending the pound" comes a poor second to maintaining consumer confidence.
But here's the issue. Keeping the UK from recession requires consumers to continue to spend more than they consume. But every day that continues, the UK's debts to the rest of the world continue to rise.
In May 1997, just 22 years ago, the UK had a net financial position of around 60% of GDP. This meant there were regular remittances from abroad, and that we could run a modest trade deficit, and still cover the current account.
But two decades of "maintaining consumer confidence" has flipped that number around. We now owe something like 50-55% of GDP. We've gone from being one of the most secure large countries in the world, to being Spain on the verge of the Eurozone crisis in less than a generation.
This is a classic unstable equilibrium. GDP growth is good because we generate GDP by selling each other imports. (An iPhone bought on Oxford Street with borrowed money generates far more British GDP than Chinese.) And because we're growing, money comes in, and that allows us to keep borrowing and spending.
But it cannot continue indefinitely.
You could, however, say the same about the eurozone. It has so many problems, so many inbuilt flaws and guaranteed negatives, it should have fragmented already. Yet it continues. Apparently indefinitely.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. Its choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.0 -
Did you know that many of the counties in western Ireland have a lower population now than they did at independence ?DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
While some counties, Leitrim and Roscommon, have lost three quarters of their population since before the 1940s famine.
The unfortunate and brutal fact was that much of Ireland had a population far in excess of what could be economically supported by subsistence agriculture.0 -
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
0 -
I don't think just is as foolish - he was more foolish as he committed to a deadline that doesn't work...rcs1000 said:
They agreed a deal with Her Majesty's Government. Then HMG was unable to get the deal through parliament.MarqueeMark said:
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of borders meaning you can't actually leave ain't solely our problem.DougSeal said:
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.RobD said:
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.
The EU then essentially disbanded for the summer, thanks to the changing of the commission and the EU elections.
The 31 October deadline was stupid one, born out of the Macron's desire to make political points. It essentially leaves no opportunity for any new PM to renegotiate. So we are left with three choices: (1) No Deal (which I think is the most likely scenario), (2) Extension (which is unlikely because the route to it in the UK is so tortuous), or (3) passing the existing deal, which seems vanishingly unlikely.
The EU should have made the deadline 30 November. That would at least have allowed Boris Johnson to have a month with the new Commission. In that time, it's possible a deal (or at leas the Heads of Term) would have been achievable.
But at the same time, Boris Johnson should have made the public deadline "end of the year". He was just as foolish for accepting 31 October.0 -
@rcs1000, what does one need to do to mitigate the effects of the 'rebalancing' of the UK economy you keep alluding to. Pay off as much of mortgage as possible? Large savings in Sterling?0
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According to the Independent in 2015 there were 758k Britons living in the USA and only 72k in Italy.DougSeal said:
“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”Byronic said:
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.DougSeal said:
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.IanB2 said:
Another Leaver who can’t count?Philip_Thompson said:
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.DougSeal said:
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?Philip_Thompson said:
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.Streeter said:
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.Byronic said:
.... except that Schengen borders.IanB2 said:
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.Byronic said:Streeter said:
A rather nit-picking point if I may say so.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-17-most-popular-destinations-for-british-expats-a6738016.html0 -
He was foolish because he knows its crap but if we assume he knows he will be stopped it's not politically foolish as he'll have someone to blame. Its shameless more than foolish really, since that implies a mistake when if hes half as bright as he thinks he is he knows the arbitrary date is stupid so accepted it despite knowing that, for perceived political gain and no other reason.rcs1000 said:
They agreed a deal with Her Majesty's Government. Then HMG was unable to get the deal through parliament.MarqueeMark said:
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of problem.DougSeal said:
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border e.RobD said:
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years eirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
The EU then essentially disbanded for the summer, thanks to the changing of the commission and the EU elections.
The 31 October deadline was stupid one, born out of the Macron's desire to make political points. It essentially leaves no opportunity for any new PM to renegotiate. So we are left with three choices: (1) No Deal (which I think is the most likely scenario), (2) Extension (which is unlikely because the route to it in the UK is so tortuous), or (3) passing the existing deal, which seems vanishingly unlikely.
The EU should have made the deadline 30 November. That would at least have allowed Boris Johnson to have a month with the new Commission. In that time, it's possible a deal (or at leas the Heads of Term) would have been achievable.
But at the same time, Boris Johnson should have made the public deadline "end of the year". He was just as foolish for accepting 31 October.0 -
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.0 -
Doesn't Italy 'pay in' to the EU now ?viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
While Greece continues to be a big recipient of EU funds.0 -
Remortgage and buy property. Holding liquid Sterling is stupid when the currency is falling and/or inflation increasing. Get into debt and let inflation eat away at the loan repayments. If you can buy non-sterling denominated assets, so much the better. I think transferring liquidity into shares might also be a good idea, as the value of the shares and dividends will rise as sterling falls/inflation rises.Gallowgate said:@rcs1000, what does one need to do to mitigate the effects of the 'rebalancing' of the UK economy you keep alluding to. Pay off as much of mortgage as possible? Large savings in Sterling?
Of course, this might be total bollocks and I might be totally wrong: it's hardly unprecedented. DYOR on this and consult widely.0 -
I don't think the pound will depreciate that much more. I suspect pretty much all of the implications of no deal are already priced in.
The days of the BOE raising rates to protect the currency are also long gone. The response to the falling pound after the referendum was to actually cut rates.
I've seen some comments about capital flocking to the dollar as a safe haven however I don't see that happening as the Fed are likely to have to cut rates aggressively also. I suspect the Japanese YEN will be where a lot will go.
House prices will remain overvalued and out of reach for most (at least in London and the South East) and any correction will be met with more props from government as has been the case for many governments now.
Recession in UK, USA and Eurozone, now looking very likely in 20200 -
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance. 0 -
Has this already been posted? (Edit: I can't work out how to properly put the tweet on here)
Westminster Voting Intention:
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) August 18, 2019
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
LDM: 19% (+1)
BXP: 12% (-2)
UKIP: 1% (=)
Via @BMGResearch.
Changes w/ 2-5 Jul.0 -
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?0 -
As a German with an avid interest in politics and a strong dislike for almost anything that Mr. Kohl ever said and did, I am utterly intrigued to learn about these "threats to send in the army" and "territorial demands" by him.ydoethur said:
Incorrect. There were such threats in 1990. It was part of the West German Constitution (Article 23, I think) claime dall of Germany's 'historic territories', a large chunk of which formed modern Poland. Kohl said he wanted either the territory, or huge compensation the Poles couldn't afford, or he would send in his army. Which was a very Helmut Kohl-ish way of going about things, I have to say. Fortunately cooler heads prevailed and it came to nothing.DougSeal said:
While Poland and East Germany were in the Warsaw Pact, not he EEC/EU. There have been no such threats since they have been.ydoethur said:
You mean, like the time Helmut Kohl threatened to invade Poland to recover the territories forfeited under Potsdam by force?IanB2 said:
You have missed the point. You are supposed to be thinking on the history that made it come to be there.ydoethur said:https://twitter.com/chris_en_bici/status/1162721184678592515?s=21q Bad example really given what is now the Germano-Polish border was until 1945-6 deep inside Germany.
As for your second post - I said between East Germany and Poland, because that was what this dimwitted post was about. In case you were unaware, the Berlin Wall was between East and West Germany, and is therefore not relevant.
I will admit I'm surprised as well anybody could spend time in Berlin and get starry-eyed about the Polish border and not the grim history of the city of Berlin itself. But of course the reunification of Germany had nothing to do with the EU.
Given that, admittedly, these have completely passed me by, would you please care to point me towards the place where these threats and demands have been documented.
Naturally, I might be quite disappointed if these documents would turn out to be figments of the fevered imagination of a Daily Telegraph hack, I sincerely hope to be shown something much more substantial.2 -
Looks great from Boris' viewCatMan said:Has this already been posted?
Westminster Voting Intention:
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) August 18, 2019
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
LDM: 19% (+1)
BXP: 12% (-2)
UKIP: 1% (=)
Via @BMGResearch.
Changes w/ 2-5 Jul.0 -
Here you goanother_richard said:
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/ita/grc/show/2017/0 -
Thanks, that looks like a good website.ralphmalph said:
Here you goanother_richard said:
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/ita/grc/show/2017/
The computers exports are a real surprise.0 -
Scant information available about this poll yet, e.g. when was it conducted? SNP, PC, Green figures?CatMan said:0 -
In time, China will start peeling off weaker EU partners. Greece will be the first.viewcode said:
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
https://fortune.com/longform/cosco-piraeus-port-athens/
0 -
As I understand it, the increase in Greece-China trading relations is due to the fact that China has begun to utilise Greek ports to export into the European single market (and import from there, on the way back), thus avoiding the longer route via Rotterdam/Hamburg, saving costs.Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
Greece evolving as a 'Gateway to Europe' has been playing a significant part in the Greek economic recovery.
What do you reckon would happen to that economic recovery and the massive Chinese investment in Greek ports and other trading facilities if Greece were to decide to cut themselves off from the single market?0 -
The Immigration Restriction Act 1901 wasn't dependent on the colour either.viewcode said:
We don't have a White Europe immigration policy. You've elided a "Europe immigration policy" into a "White Europe immigration policy" because most of Europe is white. But the immigration policy is not dependent on the colour.Philip_Thompson said:...The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better...
The purpose of the Act was to discriminate in favour of Europeans, but that wasn't the terms of the law passed.
The EUs purpose is to discriminate in favour of Europeans too, though its not dependent on colour per se those who are not Europeans find it a lot tougher.
But yeah, discriminating in favour of Europeans and against Africans, Asians etc isn't discriminatory is it?0 -
Do not forget with EU countries things classified as exports by websites such as this are really intra EU trade. So if you look at Belgium all Tropicana OJ for the EU is imported into BEL and then distributed to every other EU country. So for this website BEL imports a large amount of OJ and exports a large amount of OJ.another_richard said:
Thanks, that looks like a good website.ralphmalph said:
Here you goanother_richard said:
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/ita/grc/show/2017/
The computers exports are a real surprise.0 -
No it wasn't. It was based on passing a dictation test that non-Europeans were expected to fail.DougSeal said:
We don’t have a White Europe policy. You just need an EU passport. We let in plenty of non EU immigrants. The Australian policy was based purely on skin colour.Philip_Thompson said:
What the actual f**k!?DougSeal said:
“Native” English. Your p What’s your attitude to “non-native” English. Are they less English somehow?Philip_Thompson said:
I am native English.DougSeal said:
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulatePhilip_Thompson said:
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.DougSeal said:
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it doesPhilip_Thompson said:
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.Gallowgate said:
Why are we making it harder again?Byronic said:People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.
Are you just trolling now? You said "your native Australia" to someone you know is English, then you object to me saying I'm native English?
My attitude to "non-native" English is they're welcome here, I support migration from around the globe. Just as I was welcome halfway around the globe for years too.
The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better. Our discrimination against non-Europeans is no better.0 -
Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!CatMan said:0 -
35:20:20 coming along nicely.....Benpointer said:
Scant information available about this poll yet, e.g. when was it conducted? SNP, PC, Green figures?CatMan said:0 -
I never said Greece was going to leave the EU let alone the Single Market. I said - see below - that China will become its main trading partner and investor, so Greece will slowly but inevitably develop more loyalty to Beijing, than to Brussels or Berlin (which are already widely disliked by Greeks).matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I understand it, the increase in Greece-China trading relations is due to the fact that China has begun to utilise Greek ports to export into the European single market (and import from there, on the way back), thus avoiding the longer route via Rotterdam/Hamburg, saving costs.Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
Greece evolving as a 'Gateway to Europe' has been playing a significant part in the Greek economic recovery.
What do you reckon would happen to that economic recovery and the massive Chinese investment in Greek ports and other trading facilities if Greece were to decide to cut themselves off from the single market?
I could easily see Greece quitting the eurozone, if the Chinese provided a safety net.
And this they might do. China wants to divide and rule.0 -
Just seen that the BBC are going to be running a three-part series entitled "The Rise of the Nazis".
Hopefully, it's an historical documentary series not current affairs. 0 -
The Chinese have finally worked out how to conquer the world. They're going to buy it...Byronic said:
In time, China will start peeling off weaker EU partners. Greece will be the first.viewcode said:
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
https://fortune.com/longform/cosco-piraeus-port-athens/ 0 -
'We're putting the old band back together again'
https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1163094502040625152?s=20
0 -
Its how the British and the Americans operated.viewcode said:
The Chinese have finally worked out how to conquer the world. They're going to buy it...Byronic said:
In time, China will start peeling off weaker EU partners. Greece will be the first.viewcode said:
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
https://fortune.com/longform/cosco-piraeus-port-athens/0 -
Yes. Basically. And I don't see what will stop them, apart from the inevitable decline of all empires (but that's really quite a long way off)viewcode said:
The Chinese have finally worked out how to conquer the world. They're going to buy it...Byronic said:
In time, China will start peeling off weaker EU partners. Greece will be the first.viewcode said:
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
https://fortune.com/longform/cosco-piraeus-port-athens/0 -
How will BoJo be able to resist an election?MarqueeMark said:
35:20:20 coming along nicely.....Benpointer said:
Scant information available about this poll yet, e.g. when was it conducted? SNP, PC, Green figures?CatMan said:0 -
"Your message on PB horrifies me! Of course there is no possible connection between Byronic and SeanT. If you suggest such a thing anywhere it will be the end of our beautiful friendship. For Christ's sake lay off the idea that Byronic = SeanT. Just shut up about Byronic, Fuck You, Evelyn Waugh SeanT"0
-
That makes sense.ralphmalph said:
Do not forget with EU countries things classified as exports by websites such as this are really intra EU trade. So if you look at Belgium all Tropicana OJ for the EU is imported into BEL and then distributed to every other EU country. So for this website BEL imports a large amount of OJ and exports a large amount of OJ.another_richard said:
Thanks, that looks like a good website.ralphmalph said:
Here you goanother_richard said:
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.Byronic said:
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.viewcode said:
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.rcs1000 said:I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/ita/grc/show/2017/
The computers exports are a real surprise.
And guess what Greece imports a huge amount of computers from China:
https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/grc/chn/show/2017/0 -
I thought they already did "The Tories Nazis: A Warning From History" back in the 1990s. Narrated by Sam West.Benpointer said:Just seen that the BBC are going to be running a three-part series entitled "The Rise of the Nazis".
Hopefully, it's an historical documentary series not current affairs.0 -
-
Given there is only 12 % left I suggestBenpointer said:
Scant information available about this poll yet, e.g. when was it conducted? SNP, PC, Green figures?CatMan said:
SNP 4% Greens 7% Plaid 1 %0 -
The Daily Telegraph makes more stuff up.Byronic said:
Your arse-licking love of the EU is absurd. They’re tired of us “pissing about”?!DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Perhaps we are “pissing about” because the EU has offered us a deal so bad it feels better to Remain. And why have the EU done that? Because that was their intention all along, as admitted by their lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who told a French newspaper at the start “I will have done my job if the exit terms are so bad the British would prefer to stay”
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1087110446484779008?s=200 -
Remind me. Isn't the EU on holiday or have I missed somethingScott_P said:0 -
It would be good to know the fieldwork dates for this poll. As it stands, it represents a swing of 1.75% to Con from Lab compared with 2017 and would result in 19 Tory gains from Labour on basis of UNS. However, there would also be 14 LibDem gains from the Tories as a result of a 12% swing from Con to LibDem. No information re-SNP . Labour losses likely to be lower due to first term incumbency boosts in 13 of the 19 seats affectedSunil_Prasannan said:
Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!CatMan said:0 -
I do admire your blind faith in labourjustin124 said:
It would be good to know the fieldwork dates for this poll. As it stands, it represents a swing of 1.75% to Con from Lab compared with 2017 and would result in 19 Tory gains from Labour on basis of UNS. However, there would also be 14 LibDem gains from the Tories as a result of a 12% swing from Con to LibDem. No information re-SNP . Labour losses likely to be lower due to first term incumbency boosts in 13 of the 19 seats affectedSunil_Prasannan said:
Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!CatMan said:0 -
With great respect Big G, I am simply interpreting the figures as published! Faith does not enter into it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do admire your blind faith in labourjustin124 said:
It would be good to know the fieldwork dates for this poll. As it stands, it represents a swing of 1.75% to Con from Lab compared with 2017 and would result in 19 Tory gains from Labour on basis of UNS. However, there would also be 14 LibDem gains from the Tories as a result of a 12% swing from Con to LibDem. No information re-SNP . Labour losses likely to be lower due to first term incumbency boosts in 13 of the 19 seats affectedSunil_Prasannan said:
Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!CatMan said:0 -
"Kamerad, da gibt es kein Zurueck!"Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do admire your blind faith in labourjustin124 said:
It would be good to know the fieldwork dates for this poll. As it stands, it represents a swing of 1.75% to Con from Lab compared with 2017 and would result in 19 Tory gains from Labour on basis of UNS. However, there would also be 14 LibDem gains from the Tories as a result of a 12% swing from Con to LibDem. No information re-SNP . Labour losses likely to be lower due to first term incumbency boosts in 13 of the 19 seats affectedSunil_Prasannan said:
Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!CatMan said:
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Barnier said it. Here's a screengrabCicero said:
The Daily Telegraph makes more stuff up.Byronic said:
Your arse-licking love of the EU is absurd. They’re tired of us “pissing about”?!DougSeal said:
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw usRobD said:
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.DougSeal said:
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango.DougSeal said:Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Perhaps we are “pissing about” because the EU has offered us a deal so bad it feels better to Remain. And why have the EU done that? Because that was their intention all along, as admitted by their lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who told a French newspaper at the start “I will have done my job if the exit terms are so bad the British would prefer to stay”
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1087110446484779008?s=20
https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/1101795488045645829?s=200
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