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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?

I really don’t know much about economics and the intricacies of how and interest rates are set by the Bank of England, looking at this market from Paddy Power is a bit like pinning the tail on the donkey for me.

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nichomar

First ?

Philip_Thompson

If Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then 0.25% is greater value - cutting interest rates will be needed if we enter a recession.

DavidL

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

Pulpstar

A market I won't be able to enough on to compensate for my mortgage increase if rates go mental. I won't be the only one... But with long term yields becomi g low and inverted it points to steady rates and weak sterling rather than high rates. There is nothing for speculators like Soros to push Sterling our of this time.

FrancisUrquhart

Good job england bat deep....

Foxy

Philip_Thompson said:

If Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then 0.25% is greater value - cutting interest rates will be needed if we enter a recession.

It doesn't need Brexit to happen, red flags are everywhere in the world warning of recession, and Brexit is just a sideshow.

Growth is slumping everywhere, PMIs are down, trade wars are gathering steam, and political incidents in Hong Kong, Moscow, and Argentina are all pointing at a worldwide economic slowdown. The US Dollar is strong as part of the flight to safety.

Interest rates may well go negative by the year end, including the UK. Not sure how that fits the PP market. 0% may well be value at 7/1.

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good job england bat deep....

Looks like my threesome is ff again.

JBriskinindyref2

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

Sunil_Prasannan

Low interest rates = The Bank stealing money from savers.

DavidL

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then 0.25% is greater value - cutting interest rates will be needed if we enter a recession.

It doesn't need Brexit to happen, red flags are everywhere in the world warning of recession, and Brexit is just a sideshow.

Growth is slumping everywhere, PMIs are down, trade wars are gathering steam, and political incidents in Hong Kong, Moscow, and Argentina are all pointing at a worldwide economic slowdown. The US Dollar is strong as part of the flight to safety.

Interest rates may well go negative by the year end, including the UK. Not sure how that fits the PP market. 0% may well be value at 7/1.

I think that if we do get a global recession, and it is certainly possible, we are more likely to see QE than cuts in interest rates to negative levels. There are a whole series of technical problems with that. The UK also seems to have slightly higher inflation tendencies than most EU countries (if not as much as we had in the 70s and 80s) so we are less likely to slip into deflation. I can see that happening in the EZ though.

JBriskinindyref2

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Low interest rates = The Bank stealing money from savers.

They've not given themselves any headroom to cut in case of recession. Certainly a bit incompetent.

surbiton19

I take it the thread is about the Bank of England base rate and not the yield on Gilts. I have to say because of our "problems", particularly Brexit we may end 2019 with a positive rate. Probably 0.25%.

It is possible that even the US rates will go 0% or negative within 6 months. Switzerland, Germany, Japan and most European countries have head-to-toe negative interest rates. This means, the lender pays interest to the borrower, i.e the Government, if there is anyone not sure.

It is crying out for an Infrastructure Development Fund of hundreds of billions. And if the yield curve becomes inverted, just lend short term loans at a profit.
This will also help firm up rates and hopefully tick up inflation a bit.

The biggest victim of ultra low interest rates are pensioners with large savings. Apart from cash, their other asset is their house which could also lose value as it has already begun to do so.

Foxy

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I think the impact of the BOE cut of 0.25% was symbolic rather than financial. It signalled that the BOE would do what it takes.

Expect cuts and QE, and inflation can go to the devil. The government does not want businesses closing and unemployment rising, at least will do its best to keep them afloat.

Philip_Thompson

FPT

bookseller said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rpjs said:

MarqueeMark said:

The backstop rewards the EU for negotiating in bad faith. It is why it should have been filed under "FUCK OFF!!!" the moment it was proposed.

That would have been a bit tricky seeing as it was proposed by the UK...

Not that old bulls**t again. No it wasn't.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1005373/

That article makes it abundantly clear that the backstop was an Irish demand - and one any self-respecting British PM would have replied "FUCK OFF!!!" to the moment the EU proposed it. The Irish and EU side repeatedly wrote this and the UK was repeatedly horrified but never said no. Pathetic! There's nothing there that says the UK proposed this and its abundantly clear even useless May was reluctant to sign it. Thankfully Parliament didn't.

Ultimately, that ships-in-the-night dynamic meant that when bullet point number six was conveyed on 8 November, London was horrified ...

Firstly, London was positing the full resolution of the border through the future relationship, not the divorce. ...

"When we produced the guiding principles paper," recalls one EU diplomat, "the British said, okay, great, where do we sign? That’ll be sufficient progress. That sort of dynamic was always there. We weren’t getting tangible, written commitments." ...

Irish and Task Force officials started working on a new text. It would become the 8 November working paper.

"The working paper was a way of saying, the guiding principles have an ask," says one Irish official. "So that was the first articulation of the ask."

When the 8 November paper was finally leaked the reaction was explosive. ...

"We were assured by the commission this was not a requirement for sufficient progress," recalls one British official. "I don’t know if they were misleading us. They're negotiators."

So how did the bullet point, which later became the backstop, become the main demand of the EU and Ireland? ...

(London has, in the 12 months since, not wavered an iota from the line that the backstop is a constitutional assault on the UK.) ...

When the Joint Report was first drafted into a legal text at end of February London was, once again, horrified ...

Having reluctantly signed up to the political deal in December, the British government was unable to stomach its legal outworking in February.

DavidL

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

He's clearly much more confident of an immediate post Brexit boom than I am. The whole world has been struggling with deflationary pressures for the last 10 years, ever since the GFC, when there was a humongous drop in the money supply when all that funny money was written off. Add in the deflationary effect of "free" internet services and hyper competitive online shopping and getting inflation to the 2% target is tough and probably going to get tougher.

JBriskinindyref2

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

He's clearly much more confident of an immediate post Brexit boom than I am. The whole world has been struggling with deflationary pressures for the last 10 years, ever since the GFC, when there was a humongous drop in the money supply when all that funny money was written off. Add in the deflationary effect of "free" internet services and hyper competitive online shopping and getting inflation to the 2% target is tough and probably going to get tougher.

Not with the sterling drop it won't be.

DavidL

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

He's clearly much more confident of an immediate post Brexit boom than I am. The whole world has been struggling with deflationary pressures for the last 10 years, ever since the GFC, when there was a humongous drop in the money supply when all that funny money was written off. Add in the deflationary effect of "free" internet services and hyper competitive online shopping and getting inflation to the 2% target is tough and probably going to get tougher.

Not with the sterling drop it won't be.

Well, we'll see. The drop since the referendum vote is significant and not really showing up in the inflation rate. Ditto the petrol price which is even weirder.

surbiton19

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Low interest rates = The Bank stealing money from savers.

They've not given themselves any headroom to cut in case of recession. Certainly a bit incompetent.

Worse than that. Some banks will go kaput. Just check out the Financials in S&P 500.
Banks make money when interest rates are high.

crandles

Pound plunging is great for exporters, which might be just what we need, so why would government seek to stop that by raising interest rates. Also as other have said in recession cut interest rates to stimulate economy. 3 cuts of 0.25% in 4 months would usually be seen as rather aggressive but might be what is needed.

Of course if Brexit is revoked and pound surges, maybe keeping pound from gaining too much strength might be a sensible aim for exporters sake.

AndyJS

England probably have enough already at Lords. How attacking will they be from now on?

surbiton19

Philip_Thompson said:

If Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then 0.25% is greater value - cutting interest rates will be needed if we enter a recession.

First sign of a little wavering ? Maybe Brexit may not be so wonderful after all.

Philip_Thompson

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

He's clearly much more confident of an immediate post Brexit boom than I am. The whole world has been struggling with deflationary pressures for the last 10 years, ever since the GFC, when there was a humongous drop in the money supply when all that funny money was written off. Add in the deflationary effect of "free" internet services and hyper competitive online shopping and getting inflation to the 2% target is tough and probably going to get tougher.

Not with the sterling drop it won't be.

Well, we'll see. The drop since the referendum vote is significant and not really showing up in the inflation rate. Ditto the petrol price which is even weirder.

This is what I keep saying here and keep being told I don't know what I'm talking about by people who can't seem to wrap their head around the concept of inflation.

Inflation has been remarkably low in recent years all things considered. In the last decade inflation has averaged about 0.1% above base rate target despite an almighty collapse in sterling.

JBriskinindyref2

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

He's clearly much more confident of an immediate post Brexit boom than I am. The whole world has been struggling with deflationary pressures for the last 10 years, ever since the GFC, when there was a humongous drop in the money supply when all that funny money was written off. Add in the deflationary effect of "free" internet services and hyper competitive online shopping and getting inflation to the 2% target is tough and probably going to get tougher.

Not with the sterling drop it won't be.

Well, we'll see. The drop since the referendum vote is significant and not really showing up in the inflation rate. Ditto the petrol price which is even weirder.

I think it's in the inflation rate - we seem to have been running at 3pc forever, and given your deflationary pressures which I admit I am a bit ignorant of.

surbiton19

AndyJS said:

England probably have enough already at Lords. How attacking will they be from now on?

I will be surprised if they do not take a lead of 250 to score of 50 overs as a minimum. The wicket hasn't played too badly. The Aussies might go for it. Thye could always shut up shop if two wickets fell quickly.

DavidL

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I think the impact of the BOE cut of 0.25% was symbolic rather than financial. It signalled that the BOE would do what it takes.

And this was a surprise? That the Treasury could not foresee? It was hardly the Draghi punt, was it?

They were just completely wrong because they grossly exaggerated the effect of what they considered a bad thing on the economy. And they are doing it again. Doesn't necessarily mean that they are wrong this time but it does mean we are entitled to be a tad skeptical.

Philip_Thompson

surbiton19 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then 0.25% is greater value - cutting interest rates will be needed if we enter a recession.

First sign of a little wavering ? Maybe Brexit may not be so wonderful after all.

I was responding to the OP.

I have never said Brexit will be wonderful. I've also said the biggest risks are front-loaded for Brexit as having no transition may mean things struggle and unforeseen problems arise while benefits are for the long term.

In the short term I think a downturn rather than boom is more likely.

Foxy

crandles said:

Pound plunging is great for exporters, which might be just what we need, so why would government seek to stop that by raising interest rates. Also as other have said in recession cut interest rates to stimulate economy. 3 cuts of 0.25% in 4 months would usually be seen as rather aggressive but might be what is needed.

Of course if Brexit is revoked and pound surges, maybe keeping pound from gaining too much strength might be a sensible aim for exporters sake.

Though the recent decline in Sterling hasn't done much for the trade deficit.

Indeed higher interest rates to encourage saving rather than spending are needed for that. The government cares more about keeping consumer spending up than the trade deficit though, so I cannot see higher rates happening. That consumer bubble popping is the stuff of their nightmares.

MaxPB

0.25% looks like value.

surbiton19

I am a little worried about the International scene. Countries are competing in a race to the bottom to remain competitive. Even New Zealand cut its rate unexpectedly as did Thailand.
This will lead to deflation. Like the 30's which finally ended the gold standard. Why would anyone lend if returns are so low ? That is why I think we should create an Infrastructure Development Fund of , say, GBP 200bn.

not_on_fire

Philip_Thompson said:

surbiton19 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then 0.25% is greater value - cutting interest rates will be needed if we enter a recession.

First sign of a little wavering ? Maybe Brexit may not be so wonderful after all.

I was responding to the OP.

I have never said Brexit will be wonderful. I've also said the biggest risks are front-loaded for Brexit as having no transition may mean things struggle and unforeseen problems arise while benefits are for the long term.

In the short term I think a downturn rather than boom is more likely.

I see the excuses are now being got in early

ydoethur

I am hoping Lyon's dismal performance here is a sign he used up all his luck for the summer at Edgbaston.

But Stokes willl find a way to get out to him.

BTW, does anyone have Margot Robbie's phone number?

Philip_Thompson

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

surbiton19 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then 0.25% is greater value - cutting interest rates will be needed if we enter a recession.

First sign of a little wavering ? Maybe Brexit may not be so wonderful after all.

I was responding to the OP.

I have never said Brexit will be wonderful. I've also said the biggest risks are front-loaded for Brexit as having no transition may mean things struggle and unforeseen problems arise while benefits are for the long term.

In the short term I think a downturn rather than boom is more likely.

I see the excuses are now being got in early

Not saying anything I haven't said all along.

DavidL

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

He's clearly much more confident of an immediate post Brexit boom than I am. The whole world has been struggling with deflationary pressures for the last 10 years, ever since the GFC, when there was a humongous drop in the money supply when all that funny money was written off. Add in the deflationary effect of "free" internet services and hyper competitive online shopping and getting inflation to the 2% target is tough and probably going to get tougher.

Not with the sterling drop it won't be.

Well, we'll see. The drop since the referendum vote is significant and not really showing up in the inflation rate. Ditto the petrol price which is even weirder.

I think it's in the inflation rate - we seem to have been running at 3pc forever, and given your deflationary pressures which I admit I am a bit ignorant of.

Currently 2% exactly but falling.

Its on for @ydoethur !

Gabs2

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

bookseller said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rpjs said:

MarqueeMark said:

The backstop rewards the EU for negotiating in bad faith. It is why it should have been filed under "FUCK OFF!!!" the moment it was proposed.

That would have been a bit tricky seeing as it was proposed by the UK...

Not that old bulls**t again. No it wasn't.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1005373/

That article makes it abundantly clear that the backstop was an Irish demand - and one any self-respecting British PM would have replied "FUCK OFF!!!" to the moment the EU proposed it. The Irish and EU side repeatedly wrote this and the UK was repeatedly horrified but never said no. Pathetic! There's nothing there that says the UK proposed this and its abundantly clear even useless May was reluctant to sign it. Thankfully Parliament didn't.
assured by the commission this was not a requirement for sufficient progress," recalls one British official. "I don’t know if they were misleading us. They're negotiators."
ary.

The EU certainly does come off the worse in that article. What I noted most was this bit:

"London has not shifted in its view that commission's initial backstop draft would impose an intolerable requirement for customs and regulatory checks along the Irish Sea.

Michel Barnier's response is to "de-dramatize" those checks. Using scanning and barcode technology on electronically pre-cleared customs declarations would minimise not just the customs elements, but also VAT and excise."

If NI-GB checks can be "de-dramatized" why can't NI-ROI ones be de-dramatized?

JBriskinindyref2

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

surbiton19 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then 0.25% is greater value - cutting interest rates will be needed if we enter a recession.

First sign of a little wavering ? Maybe Brexit may not be so wonderful after all.

I was responding to the OP.

I have never said Brexit will be wonderful. I've also said the biggest risks are front-loaded for Brexit as having no transition may mean things struggle and unforeseen problems arise while benefits are for the long term.

In the short term I think a downturn rather than boom is more likely.

I see the excuses are now being got in early

The benefits of Brexit were always going to be in the middle run.

Short run is just a stick that remainacs regularly use to back up their point (one of the few actual points they have).

ydoethur

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

He's clearly much more confident of an immediate post Brexit boom than I am. The whole world has been struggling with deflationary pressures for the last 10 years, ever since the GFC, when there was a humongous drop in the money supply when all that funny money was written off. Add in the deflationary effect of "free" internet services and hyper competitive online shopping and getting inflation to the 2% target is tough and probably going to get tougher.

Not with the sterling drop it won't be.

Well, we'll see. The drop since the referendum vote is significant and not really showing up in the inflation rate. Ditto the petrol price which is even weirder.

I think it's in the inflation rate - we seem to have been running at 3pc forever, and given your deflationary pressures which I admit I am a bit ignorant of.

Currently 2% exactly but falling.

Its on for @ydoethur !

That sounds boring,

I'd rather once we've set it up that everything was off for Y Doethur...

JBriskinindyref2

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

DavidL said:

My guess (and its no more) would be 0.5% based on a 0.25% reduction to cope with the aftermath of Brexit.

And since we established on the previous threat that that fixed all the problems after the referendum result that would surely be enough.

I'd take a punt on 0.75 - The aftermath of Brexit will include import inflation, so steady as she goes I think.

I think TSE is all over the shop with his 2pc or higher punt.

He's clearly much more confident of an immediate post Brexit boom than I am. The whole world has been struggling with deflationary pressures for the last 10 years, ever since the GFC, when there was a humongous drop in the money supply when all that funny money was written off. Add in the deflationary effect of "free" internet services and hyper competitive online shopping and getting inflation to the 2% target is tough and probably going to get tougher.

Not with the sterling drop it won't be.

Well, we'll see. The drop since the referendum vote is significant and not really showing up in the inflation rate. Ditto the petrol price which is even weirder.

I think it's in the inflation rate - we seem to have been running at 3pc forever, and given your deflationary pressures which I admit I am a bit ignorant of.

Currently 2% exactly but falling.

Its on for @ydoethur !

No letter writing duties for anyone then.

Yeah, I'll plump for 0.75 - steady as she goes but it's not exactly value.

Foxy

Gabs2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

bookseller said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rpjs said:

MarqueeMark said:

The backstop rewards the EU for negotiating in bad faith. It is why it should have been filed under "FUCK OFF!!!" the moment it was proposed.

That would have been a bit tricky seeing as it was proposed by the UK...

Not that old bulls**t again. No it wasn't.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1005373/

That article makes it abundantly clear that the backstop was an Irish demand - and one any self-respecting British PM would have replied "FUCK OFF!!!" to the moment the EU proposed it. The Irish and EU side repeatedly wrote this and the UK was repeatedly horrified but never said no. Pathetic! There's nothing there that says the UK proposed this and its abundantly clear even useless May was reluctant to sign it. Thankfully Parliament didn't.
assured by the commission this was not a requirement for sufficient progress," recalls one British official. "I don’t know if they were misleading us. They're negotiators."
ary.

The EU certainly does come off the worse in that article. What I noted most was this bit:

"London has not shifted in its view that commission's initial backstop draft would impose an intolerable requirement for customs and regulatory checks along the Irish Sea.

Michel Barnier's response is to "de-dramatize" those checks. Using scanning and barcode technology on electronically pre-cleared customs declarations would minimise not just the customs elements, but also VAT and excise."

If NI-GB checks can be "de-dramatized" why can't NI-ROI ones be de-dramatized?

Ferries are rather easier to do customs checks on, being only a much smaller number of crossings and crossing points.

If Leavers believe in these checks being easily introduced, then they should have no fear of the backstop. We would have a couple of years to sort them. If howevef they are fictional...

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1163085783613550597?s=20

Cyclefree

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good job england bat deep....

Looks like my threesome is ff again.

I've no idea whether you're talking about cricket or giving us an insight into your weekend activities, assuming that cricket is not your sole weekend activity. In which case, poor you.

ydoethur

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good job england bat deep....

Looks like my threesome is ff again.

I've no idea whether you're talking about cricket or giving us an insight into your weekend activities, assuming that cricket is not your sole weekend activity. In which case, poor you.

In this case the two are linked.

Umm, I mean cricket and the threesome are linked.

As for my weekend activities, I pulled out a lot of - weeds - yesterday, cycled to Rugeley Trent Valley over the forest trails, and of course this morning my eight foot horn had a full workout. I tried out The War March of the Priests and got right through it (I was rather pleased with myself).

ydoethur

Good grief.

Joe Root has declared.

Is this a rare sign of aggressive captaincy?

DavidL

ydoethur said:

Good grief.

Joe Root has declared.

Is this a rare sign of aggressive captaincy?

Its the belief that an absence of Smith gives you. But conditions are favourable and this is nowhere near a day 5 pitch. Australia should hang on.

JBriskinindyref2

Back on topic - 2pc or higher is a real wild card.

If we assume 0.75 till Brexit and that they're only going to go in 0.25 increments then that only leaves a range of 0.25 - 1.25 - Take your pick I guess.

JBriskinindyref2

ydoethur said:

Good grief.

Joe Root has declared.

Is this a rare sign of aggressive captaincy?

Good for draw layers - but I guess it's still going to be a draw isn't it?

TheScreamingEagles

Just stuck a tenner on Australia to win this match at 35/1 with Ladbrokes.

I'll need the winnings to drown my sorrows in mango juice.

JBriskinindyref2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just stuck a tenner on Australia to win this match.

This does sound good for the draw layers. I'm on Super Sunday (err, Sheffield Utd Vs Cystal Palace.)

ydoethur

JBriskinindyref2 said:

ydoethur said:

Good grief.

Joe Root has declared.

Is this a rare sign of aggressive captaincy?

Good for draw layers - but I guess it's still going to be a draw isn't it?

Unless they bat as incompetently as Middlesex are currently doing - it should be.

But with Australia you never know. Especially an Australia somewhat brutally shorn of their one proficient batsman.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just stuck a tenner on Australia to win this match at 35/1 with Ladbrokes.

I'll need the winnings to drown my sorrows in mango juice.

Warner to bat right through and win the match with a big hundred?

Cyclefree

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good job england bat deep....

Looks like my threesome is ff again.

I've no idea whether you're talking about cricket or giving us an insight into your weekend activities, assuming that cricket is not your sole weekend activity. In which case, poor you.

In this case the two are linked.

Umm, I mean cricket and the threesome are linked.

As for my weekend activities, I pulled out a lot of - weeds - yesterday, cycled to Rugeley Trent Valley over the forest trails, and of course this morning my eight foot horn had a full workout. I tried out The War March of the Priests and got right through it (I was rather pleased with myself).

I am not going to ask how cricket and the threesome are linked. There are some things where it is best to be ignorant.

Having spent two full weekends planting like a fury, this weekend I enjoyed sitting in my garden and even, and this is very rare for me, had an afternoon nap on my sunny terrace. I have done some reading and plan more.

I have also been fighting with WordPress and LinkedIn which no longer seem to communicate with each other thus ensuring that my two beautifully written posts (for my own blog) have the wrong photos attached to them. Bloody IT!

And now back to some dolce far niente ......

FrancisUrquhart

I think we need to get Stokes and Archer over to China and get them cloned ASAP. Cos the rest of the team are more Iceland than Waitrose.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just stuck a tenner on Australia to win this match at 35/1 with Ladbrokes.

I'll need the winnings to drown my sorrows in mango juice.

Warner to bat right through and win the match with a big hundred?

Yes.

JBriskinindyref2

ydoethur said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

ydoethur said:

Good grief.

Joe Root has declared.

Is this a rare sign of aggressive captaincy?

Good for draw layers - but I guess it's still going to be a draw isn't it?

Unless they bat as incompetently as Middlesex are currently doing - it should be.

But with Australia you never know. Especially an Australia somewhat brutally shorn of their one proficient batsman.

Got 4.5 GBP Cashback! back for my shennanigans

OldKingCole

The day interest rates went up like a rocket is burned on my memory. I had a small business which wasn't doing well enough, got behind with the rent and the landlord charged bank rate plus 2%. On a daily basis.
Crippled me.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just stuck a tenner on Australia to win this match at 35/1 with Ladbrokes.

I'll need the winnings to drown my sorrows in mango juice.

Warner to bat right through and win the match with a big hundred?

Yes.

Bancroft's about due a success as well.

He was like this at Gloucestershire. He played for two years and in about 29 innings averaged something like 15, and then in the last one scored 206 not out.

Philip_Thompson

Foxy said:

Gabs2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

bookseller said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rpjs said:

MarqueeMark said:

The backstop rewards the EU for negotiating in bad faith. It is why it should have been filed under "FUCK OFF!!!" the moment it was proposed.

That would have been a bit tricky seeing as it was proposed by the UK...

Not that old bulls**t again. No it wasn't.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1005373/

That article makes it abundantly clear that the backstop was an Irish demand - and one any self-respecting British PM would have replied "FUCK OFF!!!" to the moment the EU proposed it. The Irish and EU side repeatedly wrote this and the UK was repeatedly horrified but never said no. Pathetic! There's nothing there that says the UK proposed this and its abundantly clear even useless May was reluctant to sign it. Thankfully Parliament didn't.
assured by the commission this was not a requirement for sufficient progress," recalls one British official. "I don’t know if they were misleading us. They're negotiators."
ary.

The EU certainly does come off the worse in that article. What I noted most was this bit:

"London has not shifted in its view that commission's initial backstop draft would impose an intolerable requirement for customs and regulatory checks along the Irish Sea.

Michel Barnier's response is to "de-dramatize" those checks. Using scanning and barcode technology on electronically pre-cleared customs declarations would minimise not just the customs elements, but also VAT and excise."

If NI-GB checks can be "de-dramatized" why can't NI-ROI ones be de-dramatized?

Ferries are rather easier to do customs checks on, being only a much smaller number of crossings and crossing points.

If Leavers believe in these checks being easily introduced, then they should have no fear of the backstop. We would have a couple of years to sort them. If howevef they are fictional...

That's garbage because the need for a backstop is a fiction already.

A compromise can't exist until both sides want it to exist, a compromise requires both sides to give a bit and not demand 100% and as long as the backstop exists the EU is demanding 100% so will not give an inch.

Only by us leaving the EU without a backstop will the EU seriously start looking at alternatives and then they suddenly won't be fictional. But if we leave with a backstop they will be.

CarlottaVance

The First Minister of Scotland previously stated that the international tendering for auxiliary vessel contracts, specifically the Fleet Solid Support Ship contracts, is a betrayal of the Clyde. This is however despite the yards having no interest in them, having never been promised them and the fact the vessels couldn’t physically fit on the slipway.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/many-ships-clyde-shipyards-expecting-build/

ydoethur

Just to prove it CAN happen:

At Hove, Middlesex are 42-7 after 16 overs.

Ollie Robinson has the improbable figures of 8-2-20-7.

And they didn't even start badly - they made it to 26-2!

Edit - how wrong can one be? 8.5-2-22-8!

ydoethur

I am just a legend.

And, boy, do the crowds hate Warner.

ydoethur

Khawaja of course is a very dangerous batsman. With Smith out and Warner disgraced he is the senior batsman and he can but long and go big. He could be a big problem here.

FrancisUrquhart

Where would England be if they hadnt changed the eligibility rules and archer was still wasting his time in county cricket...

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

I am just a legend.

And, boy, do the crowds hate Warner.

The crowds may warm to Smith, but Warner is going to be hated forever.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Where would England be if they hadnt changed the eligibility rules and archer was still wasting his time in county cricket...

I feel sorry for Jonathan Agnew, remember when Archer was going to tear apart the team spirit in the England team?

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

Where would England be if they hadnt changed the eligibility rules and archer was still wasting his time in county cricket...

Still batting?

rottenborough

Wow! The cricket.

I bet on England at 22 yesterday evening, after getting a bit of a feeling.

Just laid it off at 7.

JBriskinindyref2

ydoethur said:

Khawaja of course is a very dangerous batsman. With Smith out and Warner disgraced he is the senior batsman and he can but long and go big. He could be a big problem here.

Just switched it on the cricket in the break between the football. You're having a laugh 250+ with two hours of play left??? Draw is nailed on in the truest sense of the word.

ydoethur

ydoethur said:

Khawaja of course is a very dangerous batsman. With Smith out and Warner disgraced he is the senior batsman and he can but long and go big. He could be a big problem here.

I thank you.

Now, who is batting at 4?

Edit - Labushagne. The man who has single-handedly made Glamorgan a first-class county again rather than an opportunity to get 24 points in two days.

ydoethur

Blimey. It sounds as though it's full body armour you need facing this guy.

TheScreamingEagles

Christ on a bike, if I was a Aussie batter facing Archer I'd be shitting bricks.

CatMan

Can I bet on how long before Archer kills someone?

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ on a bike, if I was a Aussie batter facing Archer I'd be shitting bricks.

Imagine how fast he would be if he gave it the full beans....

JBriskinindyref2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ on a bike, if I was a Aussie batter facing Archer I'd be shitting bricks.

ydoethur said:

Blimey. It sounds as though it's full body armour you need facing this guy.

Lol - I take it this is Archer. It's about the only thing he's good at isn't it?

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ on a bike, if I was a Aussie batter facing Archer I'd be shitting bricks.

I saw him bowl against Glos at Cheltenham. He was quick and bowled short, but with nothing like this venom. Clearly he bowls on adrenaline.

FrancisUrquhart

At times like these I wonder what England attack would be like if Tymal Mills back hadn't broken down. 95mph left and right arm bowlers.

And then Wood could always come on as well.

ydoethur

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ on a bike, if I was a Aussie batter facing Archer I'd be shitting bricks.

ydoethur said:

Blimey. It sounds as though it's full body armour you need facing this guy.

Lol - I take it this is Archer. It's about the only thing he's good at isn't it?

He's been on target. He will be taking a bow at the end.

ydoethur

Middlesex all out 75 as Beer takes the last wicket.

Is this an omen?

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

At times like these I wonder what England attack would be like if Tymal Mills back hadn't broken down. 95mph left and right arm bowlers.

And then Wood could always come on as well.

Plus Olly Stone, is a pity he is out for the season now.

One thing, we need to manage Archer's workload, only pick him for matches/series that matter.

rottenborough

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Yep, these lunatics want the absolute maximum chaos.

God help us.

FrancisUrquhart

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ on a bike, if I was a Aussie batter facing Archer I'd be shitting bricks.

I saw him bowl against Glos at Cheltenham. He was quick and bowled short, but with nothing like this venom. Clearly he bowls on adrenaline.

As a youth, we had a West Indian international as our club pro and he was capable of 85+ mph. He was so laid back he was virtually horizontal and far too many games he bowled like it.

Well the West Indies got absolutely smoked in a test, basically all done by the start of our match on the Saturday afternoon. He turned up absolutely raging about it (and the fact he wasn't being considered for selection).

Well 2hrs later he had put two in hospital, had one batsman caught at 3rd man fending off a bouncing and I had been smashed on the helmet fielding at short leg from another delivery fended off.

Next week he turned up and bowled nicely nicely medium-fast as if nothing had happened.

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/bradpates/status/1163107453841661957?s=20

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

At times like these I wonder what England attack would be like if Tymal Mills back hadn't broken down. 95mph left and right arm bowlers.

And then Wood could always come on as well.

Plus Olly Stone, is a pity he is out for the season now.

One thing, we need to manage Archer's workload, only pick him for matches/series that matter.

Tymal Mills was, in his Essex days, only really good in 4 over spells. First over warm up, two good ones, then he sprayed around.
However I give you another Essex bowler, Sam Cook, or Little Chef as he is known. Currently bowling against Kent, so far 3 overs, 3 maidens, 2 wickets.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1163019257254465537

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/SportingLife/status/1163108244543422464?s=20

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

The First Minister of Scotland previously stated that the international tendering for auxiliary vessel contracts, specifically the Fleet Solid Support Ship contracts, is a betrayal of the Clyde. This is however despite the yards having no interest in them, having never been promised them and the fact the vessels couldn’t physically fit on the slipway.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/many-ships-clyde-shipyards-expecting-build/

Toom Tabard just cannot help herself, bitter and twisted to the very end.

OldKingCole

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

ydoethur

Aussies got the measure of the bowling now.

Philip_Thompson

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

Or visa waivers?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/plalor/status/1163109148923482112

OldKingCole

Philip_Thompson said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

Or visa waivers?

Per country or per person?

RobD

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

I thought there had been agreement for a visa waiver program for EU nationals, even in the event of no deal? People from non-EU countries that can currently visit without a visa will of course be unaffected.

Philip_Thompson

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Yep, these lunatics want the absolute maximum chaos.

God help us.

I feel increasingly like the Joker from The Dark Knight.

I didn't want no deal at the start but bring it on now, I am looking forward to it now.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

Aussies got the measure of the bowling now.

When does Leach come on, I wonder.

Philip_Thompson

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

Or visa waivers?

Per country or per person?

The system already exists. Just apply visa waiver program to the EU using the exact same rules as already apply to other visa waiver nations. We aren't in Schengen so it should be technologically quite easy to do.

malcolmg

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/independent/status/1163099281613578241?s=21

Its not my priority and I'd be happy to not see controls reintroduced but given its more than 3 years now why on Earth is no replacement ready yet?

May and Hammond truly have a lot to answer for.

Does this mean visas for all non-Brits?

I thought there had been agreement for a visa waiver program for EU nationals, even in the event of no deal? People from non-EU countries that can currently visit without a visa will of course be unaffected.

The Tories really have lost their marbles.

RobD

@OldKingCole -- here's the government website describing the current policy:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/visiting-the-uk-after-brexit

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal

...

The government is proposing to end free movement, but this is still subject to approval by Parliament. Once free movement has ended, if you’re a citizen of any other EU or EEA country, or Switzerland, you’ll still be able to enter the UK without a visa but only for up to 3 months.

malcolmg

RobD said:

@OldKingCole -- here's the government website describing the current policy:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/visiting-the-uk-after-brexit

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal

...

The government is proposing to end free movement, but this is still subject to approval by Parliament. Once free movement has ended, if you’re a citizen of any other EU or EEA country, or Switzerland, you’ll still be able to enter the UK without a visa but only for up to 3 months.

Will be lovely for Brits living abroad when the EU has reciprocal agreements. Be some bargains on the Costa's for sure.

RobD

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

@OldKingCole -- here's the government website describing the current policy:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/visiting-the-uk-after-brexit

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal

...

The government is proposing to end free movement, but this is still subject to approval by Parliament. Once free movement has ended, if you’re a citizen of any other EU or EEA country, or Switzerland, you’ll still be able to enter the UK without a visa but only for up to 3 months.

Will be lovely for Brits living abroad when the EU has reciprocal agreements. Be some bargains on the Costa's for sure.

The EU have already agreed that.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47801920