One of the most likely numbers is missing: 0.1%. The Bank will not cut all the way to zero but they now believe that the effective lower bound is below 0.25%, and I think around 0.1% is where they see it. In my view there is value at 0.75% (if we avoid no deal or if the Bank waits a few months before acting) and also at 2% or above (in case we enter a full on currency crisis, unlikely but maybe not as unlikely as priced). Laying 0% would also be profitable, for the reason given above.
Lordy - another 2pc or higher fan. Are you a Citeh boy or something ?
I don't think 2% or higher is likely, just that it may be marginally more likely than is priced and therefore is value. You do know how betting works, right? And yes, I do work in finance.
Value betting blah blah blah blah - change the odds into percentage chances blah blah blah - Yes I know how betting works.
And there's absolutely no chance of 2pc interest rates this year.
It is unlikely but certainly not no chance. I think the most likely values are 75bp, 10bp and 25bp. But in a no deal, GBP crash scenario the BoE could end up hiking rates to defend the currency. They certainly see that as a possibility themselves.
A hike nowadays is 0.25 - As I previously posted, for this reason, bets on this market should be limited to 0.25 to 1.25
If the UK gets embroiled in an EM style currency crisis there might be serious hikes. Nobody ever defended their currency by hiking 25bp.
Raising interest rates isn’t going to help if the currency is collapsing because the economy is going down the Brexit toilet. They won’t even try to defend it that way. The solution in such a case is to retreat to May’s deal, or something as close to it as is possible at the time, ASAP. Assuming the EU is willing to listen to us by then.
Once we're out we're out, as R Nabavi explained to me. The EU would have to act with unequalled alacrity and unprecedented flexibility to *fix* Brexit after we Brexit.
That said, Brexit could be so bad they will do so.
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.
.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.
As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.
Another Leaver who can’t count?
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.
I think the point is that the EU allows Germans to live freely and work in areas that were once an integral part of Germany, and to travel to and fro without restriction. The Irish see it similarly with respect to NI.
People in the Nordic countries have been able to do that long before the EU.
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.
.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.
As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.
Another Leaver who can’t count?
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.
.... except that Schengen borders, such as this, are being closed across Europe, because of the EU's inability to master its migration problem.
As an aside, shrieking eurosceptics might like to note that the not-at-all-Federal EU now calls frontier and migration issues, like this, "Home affairs".
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.
Another Leaver who can’t count?
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.
.... except that Schengen borders.
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.
Another Leaver who can’t count?
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.
.... except that Schengen borders.
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.
Another Leaver who can’t count?
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”
But it doesn’t work. You’ll see from the link that you need an Android phone to use the system or go to a local register office. “So get access to an Android phone” you say. Well, maybe, but doesn’t the fact that they cannot sort out an app for any other operating system suggest to you there is a problem here? There is. The Android app works badly, the delays are huge, local register offices are not set up for this, so many/most end up having to post their passports in anyway.
If you have an Apple phone, invest in a decent phone instead.
The problem is that Apple tied the NFC stuff up so tightly that third-party apps couldn't access the necessary gubbins. So blame Apple, not the government.
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
To be exact, 103km East of Berlin. It's not what I would call close.
The original point was also ridiculous and juvenile. The EU does some generally good things - free movement, single market - and some generally bad things - bureaucracy, lack of democracy, the euro, etc.
Some think the bad outweighs the good, others think the opposite. The lack of a border a few miles east of Berlin proves nothing.
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.
.... except that Schengen borders.
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.
Another Leaver who can’t count?
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”
I don't think it will be anywhere near that hard. There will be a period when it is tricky, but it suits both sides to have free-ish movement of LABOUR, and that will be the outcome. Eventually.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.
.... except that Schengen borders.
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.
Another Leaver who can’t count?
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”
I don't think it will be anywhere near that hard. There will be a period when it is tricky, but it suits both sides to have free-ish movement of LABOUR, and that will be the outcome. Eventually.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it does
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it does
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it does
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulate
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it does
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulate
I am native English.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
Of course. But they should be taking the easy singles, not possible run outs.
Anyway it’s a draw now. But what a game. Archer has transformed the series. Incredible debut.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it does
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulate
I am native English.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
“Native” English. Your p What’s your attitude to “non-native” English. Are they less English somehow?
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
Pathetic.
Your failure to understand how strong the historical feeling is in Ireland is betrayed by your childish insults.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it does
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulate
I am native English.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
“Native” English. Your p What’s your attitude to “non-native” English. Are they less English somehow?
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.
What the actual f**k!?
Are you just trolling now? You said "your native Australia" to someone you know is English, then you object to me saying I'm native English?
My attitude to "non-native" English is they're welcome here, I support migration from around the globe. Just as I was welcome halfway around the globe for years too.
The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better. Our discrimination against non-Europeans is no better.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Your arse-licking love of the EU is absurd. They’re tired of us “pissing about”?!
Perhaps we are “pissing about” because the EU has offered us a deal so bad it feels better to Remain. And why have the EU done that? Because that was their intention all along, as admitted by their lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who told a French newspaper at the start “I will have done my job if the exit terms are so bad the British would prefer to stay”
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it does
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulate
I am native English.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
“Native” English. Your p What’s your attitude to “non-native” English. Are they less English somehow?
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.
What the actual f**k!?
Are you just trolling now? You said "your native Australia" to someone you know is English, then you object to me saying I'm native English?
My attitude to "non-native" English is they're welcome here, I support migration from around the globe. Just as I was welcome halfway around the globe for years too.
The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better. Our discrimination against non-Europeans is no better.
We don’t have a White Europe policy. You just need an EU passport. We let in plenty of non EU immigrants. The Australian policy was based purely on skin colour.
...The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better...
We don't have a White Europe immigration policy. You've elided a "Europe immigration policy" into a "White Europe immigration policy" because most of Europe is white. But the immigration policy is not dependent on the colour.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of borders meaning you can't actually leave ain't solely our problem.
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
The Bank doesn't act in isolation: they are subject to political pressures from the government, and from external economic factors.
Simply, "defending the pound" comes a poor second to maintaining consumer confidence.
But here's the issue. Keeping the UK from recession requires consumers to continue to spend more than they consume. But every day that continues, the UK's debts to the rest of the world continue to rise.
In May 1997, just 22 years ago, the UK had a net financial position of around 60% of GDP. This meant there were regular remittances from abroad, and that we could run a modest trade deficit, and still cover the current account.
But two decades of "maintaining consumer confidence" has flipped that number around. We now owe something like 50-55% of GDP. We've gone from being one of the most secure large countries in the world, to being Spain on the verge of the Eurozone crisis in less than a generation.
This is a classic unstable equilibrium. GDP growth is good because we generate GDP by selling each other imports. (An iPhone bought on Oxford Street with borrowed money generates far more British GDP than Chinese.) And because we're growing, money comes in, and that allows us to keep borrowing and spending.
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
The Bank doesn't act in isolation: they are subject to political pressures from the government, and from external economic factors.
Simply, "defending the pound" comes a poor second to maintaining consumer confidence.
But here's the issue. Keeping the UK from recession requires consumers to continue to spend more than they consume. But every day that continues, the UK's debts to the rest of the world continue to rise.
In May 1997, just 22 years ago, the UK had a net financial position of around 60% of GDP. This meant there were regular remittances from abroad, and that we could run a modest trade deficit, and still cover the current account.
But two decades of "maintaining consumer confidence" has flipped that number around. We now owe something like 50-55% of GDP. We've gone from being one of the most secure large countries in the world, to being Spain on the verge of the Eurozone crisis in less than a generation.
This is a classic unstable equilibrium. GDP growth is good because we generate GDP by selling each other imports. (An iPhone bought on Oxford Street with borrowed money generates far more British GDP than Chinese.) And because we're growing, money comes in, and that allows us to keep borrowing and spending.
But it cannot continue indefinitely.
Depressing.
You could, however, say the same about the eurozone. It has so many problems, so many inbuilt flaws and guaranteed negatives, it should have fragmented already. Yet it continues. Apparently indefinitely.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of borders meaning you can't actually leave ain't solely our problem.
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.
They are addressing the problem. Problem is, they're addressing it in a way we don't like. And we're addressing it in a way that involves ignoring it and hoping magic tech or somebody else will fix it for us. Yay. Good old us.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of borders meaning you can't actually leave ain't solely our problem.
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.
They agreed a deal with Her Majesty's Government. Then HMG was unable to get the deal through parliament.
The EU then essentially disbanded for the summer, thanks to the changing of the commission and the EU elections.
The 31 October deadline was stupid one, born out of the Macron's desire to make political points. It essentially leaves no opportunity for any new PM to renegotiate. So we are left with three choices: (1) No Deal (which I think is the most likely scenario), (2) Extension (which is unlikely because the route to it in the UK is so tortuous), or (3) passing the existing deal, which seems vanishingly unlikely.
The EU should have made the deadline 30 November. That would at least have allowed Boris Johnson to have a month with the new Commission. In that time, it's possible a deal (or at leas the Heads of Term) would have been achievable.
But at the same time, Boris Johnson should have made the public deadline "end of the year". He was just as foolish for accepting 31 October.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.
For some Leavers (Andrew Lilico springs to mind, as he does so often when discussing stupid), yes, that is the approach. Some UK politicians find it very difficult to get their head around Ireland.
If you don't rotate the strike, the same batsman is facing the bowler six balls in a row and the batting team really feels the pressure.
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
The Bank doesn't act in isolation: they are subject to political pressures from the government, and from external economic factors.
Simply, "defending the pound" comes a poor second to maintaining consumer confidence.
But here's the issue. Keeping the UK from recession requires consumers to continue to spend more than they consume. But every day that continues, the UK's debts to the rest of the world continue to rise.
In May 1997, just 22 years ago, the UK had a net financial position of around 60% of GDP. This meant there were regular remittances from abroad, and that we could run a modest trade deficit, and still cover the current account.
But two decades of "maintaining consumer confidence" has flipped that number around. We now owe something like 50-55% of GDP. We've gone from being one of the most secure large countries in the world, to being Spain on the verge of the Eurozone crisis in less than a generation.
This is a classic unstable equilibrium. GDP growth is good because we generate GDP by selling each other imports. (An iPhone bought on Oxford Street with borrowed money generates far more British GDP than Chinese.) And because we're growing, money comes in, and that allows us to keep borrowing and spending.
But it cannot continue indefinitely.
Depressing.
You could, however, say the same about the eurozone. It has so many problems, so many inbuilt flaws and guaranteed negatives, it should have fragmented already. Yet it continues. Apparently indefinitely.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. Its choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
Did you know that many of the counties in western Ireland have a lower population now than they did at independence ?
While some counties, Leitrim and Roscommon, have lost three quarters of their population since before the 1940s famine.
The unfortunate and brutal fact was that much of Ireland had a population far in excess of what could be economically supported by subsistence agriculture.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border open because of our ludicrous decision to leave it? That is the logical conclusion to what your argument seems to be.
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of borders meaning you can't actually leave ain't solely our problem.
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.
They agreed a deal with Her Majesty's Government. Then HMG was unable to get the deal through parliament.
The EU then essentially disbanded for the summer, thanks to the changing of the commission and the EU elections.
The 31 October deadline was stupid one, born out of the Macron's desire to make political points. It essentially leaves no opportunity for any new PM to renegotiate. So we are left with three choices: (1) No Deal (which I think is the most likely scenario), (2) Extension (which is unlikely because the route to it in the UK is so tortuous), or (3) passing the existing deal, which seems vanishingly unlikely.
The EU should have made the deadline 30 November. That would at least have allowed Boris Johnson to have a month with the new Commission. In that time, it's possible a deal (or at leas the Heads of Term) would have been achievable.
But at the same time, Boris Johnson should have made the public deadline "end of the year". He was just as foolish for accepting 31 October.
I don't think just is as foolish - he was more foolish as he committed to a deadline that doesn't work...
@rcs1000, what does one need to do to mitigate the effects of the 'rebalancing' of the UK economy you keep alluding to. Pay off as much of mortgage as possible? Large savings in Sterling?
It’s actually pretty remarkable, given the history.
.... except that Schengen borders.
So what? I consider the EU to be my home. All of it. As a Remainer I’m sure you feel the same.
Then you're welcome to move to the EU or campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU after we've left.
Lets acknowledge honestly that you're seeking an EU as one nation and not EU as a collective of nations.
“Welcome to move to the EU...”. How’s that going to work?
You have free movement still for the next six weeks.
Another Leaver who can’t count?
LOL I skipped a month. 10 weeks. Plenty of time to move if you want to @DougSeal and that's without considering that you've known this was coming for more than three years already.
But if you don't want to I respect that. Your choice.
I would love to move to Italy. I intended to do so. Unfortunately thanks to you @Philip_Thompson I have no guarantee of being able to stay 31 October. I could have moved anytime in the last three years but I would have known that I was at risk of being kicked out thanks to the moronic recklessness of the Tory party.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
“Slightly harder”. It will, at best, be as difficult as moving to, say, the USA. That is more than “slightly harder”
According to the Independent in 2015 there were 758k Britons living in the USA and only 72k in Italy.
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years eirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Interesting. And nothing to do with the single market?
Are you suggesting that Ireland should leave the Single Market to keep the border e.
The EU contemplated our leaving by providing for it in Article 50. That they have a ludicrous system of problem.
They agreed a deal with Her Majesty's Government. Then HMG was unable to get the deal through parliament.
The EU then essentially disbanded for the summer, thanks to the changing of the commission and the EU elections.
The 31 October deadline was stupid one, born out of the Macron's desire to make political points. It essentially leaves no opportunity for any new PM to renegotiate. So we are left with three choices: (1) No Deal (which I think is the most likely scenario), (2) Extension (which is unlikely because the route to it in the UK is so tortuous), or (3) passing the existing deal, which seems vanishingly unlikely.
The EU should have made the deadline 30 November. That would at least have allowed Boris Johnson to have a month with the new Commission. In that time, it's possible a deal (or at leas the Heads of Term) would have been achievable.
But at the same time, Boris Johnson should have made the public deadline "end of the year". He was just as foolish for accepting 31 October.
He was foolish because he knows its crap but if we assume he knows he will be stopped it's not politically foolish as he'll have someone to blame. Its shameless more than foolish really, since that implies a mistake when if hes half as bright as he thinks he is he knows the arbitrary date is stupid so accepted it despite knowing that, for perceived political gain and no other reason.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Doesn't Italy 'pay in' to the EU now ?
While Greece continues to be a big recipient of EU funds.
@rcs1000, what does one need to do to mitigate the effects of the 'rebalancing' of the UK economy you keep alluding to. Pay off as much of mortgage as possible? Large savings in Sterling?
Remortgage and buy property. Holding liquid Sterling is stupid when the currency is falling and/or inflation increasing. Get into debt and let inflation eat away at the loan repayments. If you can buy non-sterling denominated assets, so much the better. I think transferring liquidity into shares might also be a good idea, as the value of the shares and dividends will rise as sterling falls/inflation rises.
Of course, this might be total bollocks and I might be totally wrong: it's hardly unprecedented. DYOR on this and consult widely.
I don't think the pound will depreciate that much more. I suspect pretty much all of the implications of no deal are already priced in.
The days of the BOE raising rates to protect the currency are also long gone. The response to the falling pound after the referendum was to actually cut rates.
I've seen some comments about capital flocking to the dollar as a safe haven however I don't see that happening as the Fed are likely to have to cut rates aggressively also. I suspect the Japanese YEN will be where a lot will go.
House prices will remain overvalued and out of reach for most (at least in London and the South East) and any correction will be met with more props from government as has been the case for many governments now.
Recession in UK, USA and Eurozone, now looking very likely in 2020
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
You have missed the point. You are supposed to be thinking on the history that made it come to be there.
You mean, like the time Helmut Kohl threatened to invade Poland to recover the territories forfeited under Potsdam by force?
While Poland and East Germany were in the Warsaw Pact, not he EEC/EU. There have been no such threats since they have been.
Incorrect. There were such threats in 1990. It was part of the West German Constitution (Article 23, I think) claime dall of Germany's 'historic territories', a large chunk of which formed modern Poland. Kohl said he wanted either the territory, or huge compensation the Poles couldn't afford, or he would send in his army. Which was a very Helmut Kohl-ish way of going about things, I have to say. Fortunately cooler heads prevailed and it came to nothing.
As for your second post - I said between East Germany and Poland, because that was what this dimwitted post was about. In case you were unaware, the Berlin Wall was between East and West Germany, and is therefore not relevant.
I will admit I'm surprised as well anybody could spend time in Berlin and get starry-eyed about the Polish border and not the grim history of the city of Berlin itself. But of course the reunification of Germany had nothing to do with the EU.
As a German with an avid interest in politics and a strong dislike for almost anything that Mr. Kohl ever said and did, I am utterly intrigued to learn about these "threats to send in the army" and "territorial demands" by him. Given that, admittedly, these have completely passed me by, would you please care to point me towards the place where these threats and demands have been documented. Naturally, I might be quite disappointed if these documents would turn out to be figments of the fevered imagination of a Daily Telegraph hack, I sincerely hope to be shown something much more substantial.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...
In time, China will start peeling off weaker EU partners. Greece will be the first.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
As I understand it, the increase in Greece-China trading relations is due to the fact that China has begun to utilise Greek ports to export into the European single market (and import from there, on the way back), thus avoiding the longer route via Rotterdam/Hamburg, saving costs. Greece evolving as a 'Gateway to Europe' has been playing a significant part in the Greek economic recovery. What do you reckon would happen to that economic recovery and the massive Chinese investment in Greek ports and other trading facilities if Greece were to decide to cut themselves off from the single market?
...The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better...
We don't have a White Europe immigration policy. You've elided a "Europe immigration policy" into a "White Europe immigration policy" because most of Europe is white. But the immigration policy is not dependent on the colour.
The Immigration Restriction Act 1901 wasn't dependent on the colour either.
The purpose of the Act was to discriminate in favour of Europeans, but that wasn't the terms of the law passed.
The EUs purpose is to discriminate in favour of Europeans too, though its not dependent on colour per se those who are not Europeans find it a lot tougher.
But yeah, discriminating in favour of Europeans and against Africans, Asians etc isn't discriminatory is it?
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
Do not forget with EU countries things classified as exports by websites such as this are really intra EU trade. So if you look at Belgium all Tropicana OJ for the EU is imported into BEL and then distributed to every other EU country. So for this website BEL imports a large amount of OJ and exports a large amount of OJ.
People will still move between the EU and the UK after Brexit, just as they did before the EU introduced Free Movement. It will be slightly harder, but far from impossible.
Why are we making it harder again?
Because we are making it fair and the same as non-Europeans.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
I don’t think discrimination in this context means what you think it does
We are treating non-Europeans differenty to Europeans. That is discrimination.
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
Not the attitude taken in your native Australia whose “points based” system we apparently seek to emulate
I am native English.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
“Native” English. Your p What’s your attitude to “non-native” English. Are they less English somehow?
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.
What the actual f**k!?
Are you just trolling now? You said "your native Australia" to someone you know is English, then you object to me saying I'm native English?
My attitude to "non-native" English is they're welcome here, I support migration from around the globe. Just as I was welcome halfway around the globe for years too.
The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better. Our discrimination against non-Europeans is no better.
We don’t have a White Europe policy. You just need an EU passport. We let in plenty of non EU immigrants. The Australian policy was based purely on skin colour.
No it wasn't. It was based on passing a dictation test that non-Europeans were expected to fail.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
As I understand it, the increase in Greece-China trading relations is due to the fact that China has begun to utilise Greek ports to export into the European single market (and import from there, on the way back), thus avoiding the longer route via Rotterdam/Hamburg, saving costs. Greece evolving as a 'Gateway to Europe' has been playing a significant part in the Greek economic recovery. What do you reckon would happen to that economic recovery and the massive Chinese investment in Greek ports and other trading facilities if Greece were to decide to cut themselves off from the single market?
I never said Greece was going to leave the EU let alone the Single Market. I said - see below - that China will become its main trading partner and investor, so Greece will slowly but inevitably develop more loyalty to Beijing, than to Brussels or Berlin (which are already widely disliked by Greeks).
I could easily see Greece quitting the eurozone, if the Chinese provided a safety net.
And this they might do. China wants to divide and rule.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...
In time, China will start peeling off weaker EU partners. Greece will be the first.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...
In time, China will start peeling off weaker EU partners. Greece will be the first.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
Happy to agree that it's not true now, as the study was based on 2011 figures and intra-country trade - ie imports and exports combined. Good point about the Chinese...
In time, China will start peeling off weaker EU partners. Greece will be the first.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
"Your message on PB horrifies me! Of course there is no possible connection between Byronic and SeanT. If you suggest such a thing anywhere it will be the end of our beautiful friendship. For Christ's sake lay off the idea that Byronic = SeanT. Just shut up about Byronic, Fuck You, Evelyn Waugh SeanT"
I suspect the Eurozone will fragment in the next five years. I think Italy will probably drop out (and out of the EU too). Greece has to be a fair chance too. I wouldn't be surprised if Hungary leaves the EU, and there is a very small chance that Poland goes too.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. It's choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
I did a study many years ago (Jeez-Louise, 6-7 years!) and I wish I'd thought thru the implications. Greece won't separate because Germany is its biggest trading partner, with no obvious competitors. If you look where it is geographically, it's either surrounded by poor countries or violent ones or those (Turkey) it's been at war with.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
Not true about Greece. It's biggest export market is Italy. Almost twice as important as Germany.
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
What does Greece sell to Italy - I would have thought Italy produced enough olive oil.
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
Do not forget with EU countries things classified as exports by websites such as this are really intra EU trade. So if you look at Belgium all Tropicana OJ for the EU is imported into BEL and then distributed to every other EU country. So for this website BEL imports a large amount of OJ and exports a large amount of OJ.
That makes sense.
And guess what Greece imports a huge amount of computers from China:
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Your arse-licking love of the EU is absurd. They’re tired of us “pissing about”?!
Perhaps we are “pissing about” because the EU has offered us a deal so bad it feels better to Remain. And why have the EU done that? Because that was their intention all along, as admitted by their lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who told a French newspaper at the start “I will have done my job if the exit terms are so bad the British would prefer to stay”
It would be good to know the fieldwork dates for this poll. As it stands, it represents a swing of 1.75% to Con from Lab compared with 2017 and would result in 19 Tory gains from Labour on basis of UNS. However, there would also be 14 LibDem gains from the Tories as a result of a 12% swing from Con to LibDem. No information re-SNP . Labour losses likely to be lower due to first term incumbency boosts in 13 of the 19 seats affected
It would be good to know the fieldwork dates for this poll. As it stands, it represents a swing of 1.75% to Con from Lab compared with 2017 and would result in 19 Tory gains from Labour on basis of UNS. However, there would also be 14 LibDem gains from the Tories as a result of a 12% swing from Con to LibDem. No information re-SNP . Labour losses likely to be lower due to first term incumbency boosts in 13 of the 19 seats affected
It would be good to know the fieldwork dates for this poll. As it stands, it represents a swing of 1.75% to Con from Lab compared with 2017 and would result in 19 Tory gains from Labour on basis of UNS. However, there would also be 14 LibDem gains from the Tories as a result of a 12% swing from Con to LibDem. No information re-SNP . Labour losses likely to be lower due to first term incumbency boosts in 13 of the 19 seats affected
I do admire your blind faith in labour
With great respect Big G, I am simply interpreting the figures as published! Faith does not enter into it.
It would be good to know the fieldwork dates for this poll. As it stands, it represents a swing of 1.75% to Con from Lab compared with 2017 and would result in 19 Tory gains from Labour on basis of UNS. However, there would also be 14 LibDem gains from the Tories as a result of a 12% swing from Con to LibDem. No information re-SNP . Labour losses likely to be lower due to first term incumbency boosts in 13 of the 19 seats affected
Ah, yes, the great Brexit prediction game. That one where everyone has got so much right over the last 3 years. I think you underestimate how pissed off the EU are with our pissing about.
It takes two to tango.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
Whatever. They’re justified given how we fail to appreciate how our appalling genocidal behaviour in Ireland over 800 years made their demands for the “backstop” so inevitable. Either way it’s going to be very hard for us to live or work anywhere outside England in the future. Our loss more than theirs.
And here I was thinking the backstop was about protecting the single market.
It’s to protect free movement into and out of a historically disputed territory because they, justifiably, don’t trust us as far as they can throw us
Your arse-licking love of the EU is absurd. They’re tired of us “pissing about”?!
Perhaps we are “pissing about” because the EU has offered us a deal so bad it feels better to Remain. And why have the EU done that? Because that was their intention all along, as admitted by their lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who told a French newspaper at the start “I will have done my job if the exit terms are so bad the British would prefer to stay”
Comments
That said, Brexit could be so bad they will do so.
That seems a little generous with Archer this venomous.
However, for those poor souls who want to yuse Apple, they will be able to soon:
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/home-office-begins-testing-eu-settled-status-app-apple-devices
https://www.nfcworld.com/2019/06/07/362943/confirmed-ios-13-to-include-support-for-nfc-passport-reading/
The problem is that Apple tied the NFC stuff up so tightly that third-party apps couldn't access the necessary gubbins. So blame Apple, not the government.
RF is wonderful.
Why should we discriminate against non-Europeans?
Aussies have been saved by the rain it seems.
We're quite pissed off with their pissing about too.
On topic, the BOE analysis before the referendum was that the MPC would likely raise rates in the event of a leave result. Of course we all know the opposite happened and they cut rates. But maybe I'm being too hard on them. After all, how could the bank predict how their own MPC would react?
You asked why we are making it harder, that is the answer. We should be taking in the best migrants, not the whitest European migrants.
It is the attitude taken by Australia, they don't offer free movement to the whole of ASEAN, though they do with NZ just as we should with Ireland.
Anyway it’s a draw now. But what a game. Archer has transformed the series. Incredible debut.
Yes, the White Australia policy was so equal opps it hurt with its fairness.
Are you just trolling now? You said "your native Australia" to someone you know is English, then you object to me saying I'm native English?
My attitude to "non-native" English is they're welcome here, I support migration from around the globe. Just as I was welcome halfway around the globe for years too.
The White Australia policy was racist, wrong and discriminatory. It was dropped decades ago. A white Europe policy is no better. Our discrimination against non-Europeans is no better.
Perhaps we are “pissing about” because the EU has offered us a deal so bad it feels better to Remain. And why have the EU done that? Because that was their intention all along, as admitted by their lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, who told a French newspaper at the start “I will have done my job if the exit terms are so bad the British would prefer to stay”
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1087110446484779008?s=20
But you'd think so, from their refusal to address the problem.
Simply, "defending the pound" comes a poor second to maintaining consumer confidence.
But here's the issue. Keeping the UK from recession requires consumers to continue to spend more than they consume. But every day that continues, the UK's debts to the rest of the world continue to rise.
In May 1997, just 22 years ago, the UK had a net financial position of around 60% of GDP. This meant there were regular remittances from abroad, and that we could run a modest trade deficit, and still cover the current account.
But two decades of "maintaining consumer confidence" has flipped that number around. We now owe something like 50-55% of GDP. We've gone from being one of the most secure large countries in the world, to being Spain on the verge of the Eurozone crisis in less than a generation.
This is a classic unstable equilibrium. GDP growth is good because we generate GDP by selling each other imports. (An iPhone bought on Oxford Street with borrowed money generates far more British GDP than Chinese.) And because we're growing, money comes in, and that allows us to keep borrowing and spending.
But it cannot continue indefinitely.
You could, however, say the same about the eurozone. It has so many problems, so many inbuilt flaws and guaranteed negatives, it should have fragmented already. Yet it continues. Apparently indefinitely.
The EU then essentially disbanded for the summer, thanks to the changing of the commission and the EU elections.
The 31 October deadline was stupid one, born out of the Macron's desire to make political points. It essentially leaves no opportunity for any new PM to renegotiate. So we are left with three choices: (1) No Deal (which I think is the most likely scenario), (2) Extension (which is unlikely because the route to it in the UK is so tortuous), or (3) passing the existing deal, which seems vanishingly unlikely.
The EU should have made the deadline 30 November. That would at least have allowed Boris Johnson to have a month with the new Commission. In that time, it's possible a deal (or at leas the Heads of Term) would have been achievable.
But at the same time, Boris Johnson should have made the public deadline "end of the year". He was just as foolish for accepting 31 October.
But beyond there, I think it's less likely. Germany loses too much from the EU and Eurozone falling completely apart. Its choice will be subsidise or depart, and I think they will have little choice but to subsidise.
While some counties, Leitrim and Roscommon, have lost three quarters of their population since before the 1940s famine.
The unfortunate and brutal fact was that much of Ireland had a population far in excess of what could be economically supported by subsistence agriculture.
Italy, tho: you may be right...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-17-most-popular-destinations-for-british-expats-a6738016.html
http://www.worldstopexports.com/greeces-top-import-partners/
Moreover, the Chinese have doubled their intake of Greek goods and services in two years. If that continues, China will soon be the biggest trade partner. By a distance.
While Greece continues to be a big recipient of EU funds.
Of course, this might be total bollocks and I might be totally wrong: it's hardly unprecedented. DYOR on this and consult widely.
The days of the BOE raising rates to protect the currency are also long gone. The response to the falling pound after the referendum was to actually cut rates.
I've seen some comments about capital flocking to the dollar as a safe haven however I don't see that happening as the Fed are likely to have to cut rates aggressively also. I suspect the Japanese YEN will be where a lot will go.
House prices will remain overvalued and out of reach for most (at least in London and the South East) and any correction will be met with more props from government as has been the case for many governments now.
Recession in UK, USA and Eurozone, now looking very likely in 2020
But then again isn't the Italian olive oil industry more than a little corrupt with them buying up cheap foreign olive oil and relabeling it as premium Italian produce ?
Given that, admittedly, these have completely passed me by, would you please care to point me towards the place where these threats and demands have been documented.
Naturally, I might be quite disappointed if these documents would turn out to be figments of the fevered imagination of a Daily Telegraph hack, I sincerely hope to be shown something much more substantial.
https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/ita/grc/show/2017/
The computers exports are a real surprise.
China will say Here, let us handle your debts, better than those nasty Germans, we won't impose any austerity.
In return China will want a naval base on Crete. You read it here first.
The Chinese are already making moves on Greek docks.
https://fortune.com/longform/cosco-piraeus-port-athens/
Greece evolving as a 'Gateway to Europe' has been playing a significant part in the Greek economic recovery.
What do you reckon would happen to that economic recovery and the massive Chinese investment in Greek ports and other trading facilities if Greece were to decide to cut themselves off from the single market?
The purpose of the Act was to discriminate in favour of Europeans, but that wasn't the terms of the law passed.
The EUs purpose is to discriminate in favour of Europeans too, though its not dependent on colour per se those who are not Europeans find it a lot tougher.
But yeah, discriminating in favour of Europeans and against Africans, Asians etc isn't discriminatory is it?
I could easily see Greece quitting the eurozone, if the Chinese provided a safety net.
And this they might do. China wants to divide and rule.
Hopefully, it's an historical documentary series not current affairs.
https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1163094502040625152?s=20
And guess what Greece imports a huge amount of computers from China:
https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/grc/chn/show/2017/
SNP 4% Greens 7% Plaid 1 %
https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/1101795488045645829?s=20