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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservative Party is pursuing profoundly un-conservative

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    Off topic Is Dybala really going to go for Spuds for 18 million less than Maguire cost Utd ?

    Seems cheap !
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    what if the decades long structurea are part iof the problem ?
    Diesel fumes? Ongoing multi-decadal research. Poor health care - likewise. What part of these structures are problematic?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,708
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    tlg86 said:

    David, your contributions to this site are one of the main reasons for coming here. However, on this occasion, I do not have very much sympathy for you.

    When Theresa May became leader and PM she said that "no deal is better than a bad deal". You did not resign then. Furthermore, taking as fact an unattributed line in a newspaper to support your dislike for the current leader and PM is not something I would associate with a mind as sharp as yours.

    I feel the same way towards pro-EU Tories as I do to moderate Labour members. You tolerated people in your party who held views that were incompatible with your own. You cannot complain when they take power. To be fair at least you have left the party rather than sniping as many moderate Labour MPs do. And given your talents I'd suggest that you would very much be an asset to another party.

    I feel this is an unfair criticism as you are criticising when Mr Herdson left. The decision to leave an organisation is binary but the reasons behid it are on a continuum. Most people will remain a member for quite a while as that organisation changes, although they would not join given the current situation. Making the choice to leave is not an easy one, especially after having held a relatively importanat role as Mr Herdson has.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,277

    I bet Anne Widdecombe looks great in brown
    That's why she's on the plastic chair at BP HQ.
  • IanB2 said:

    But there's the thing, Morris - I detest the far left as much as the next person, and after a lifetime in London politics have probably seen more of them close up than most PB'ers.

    But I'd be willing to vote for a Corbynite now if it were the only way in my seat to stop these crazed Tories from destroying everything around them. Just the same as I once voted for Bozo (2nd pref) in order to stop mad Ken from being our Mayor.
    Are you my Doppelganger?

    I too have had that experience in London and voted for Johnson because of Ken.

    Yes, I would also vote Corbyn if it helped to stop the madness but in my current constituency it probably makes more sense to vote LD.
  • GoupillonGoupillon Posts: 79
    edited August 2019
    The EU Referendum was advisory and not binding and most certainly it did not authorise a "no deal Brexit". Why do some posters on this forum insist for democracy's sake the result of this 3 year old event must be respected? If it had been binding the High Court would have ruled it to be invalid because of the magnitude of the electoral law violations and the closeness of the result.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexit-referendum-corruptly-won-but-result-stands/

    Democracy surely allows people to change their minds? The only way out of the current impasse is to have a second fairly contested "Peoples Vote" which is binding so we can all move on.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    edited August 2019
    Floater said:

    He raises a fair point - there are medicine shortages unrelated to Brexit. The NHS declines to provide certain care or medicines regularly.

    People die because of this.

    Yet only the possibility of a death "caused" by Brexit is worthy of outrage.

    It's almost like it is just being used as a stick to bash Brexit rather than due to any care for people.
    He doesn’t raise a fair point.
    Alanbrooke is a troll who gets hard on people’s suffering.

    His one tune is to come on here and make irrelevant accusations while rubbing his hands at the impending bonfire.

    One can group ostensibly pro-Brexit posters into stupid, mad, and bad.

    Alanbrooke is “bad”.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780
    TOPPING said:

    Diesel fumes? Ongoing multi-decadal research. Poor health care - likewise. What part of these structures are problematic?
    Actually Id say the political structures, which imo are no longer meeting needs. And where the politics goes the money follows.
  • Wasn't James O'Brien one of the 'food is rotting in the fields' pedallers ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861

    The obvious problem there is, once you deliver Brexit and the BXP guys go back to BXP or whatever they'll be calling it, who do you have left.
    They won't the Brexit Party will be left with the 12% who voted UKIP in 2015 at most and the Tories will be over 30% after delivering Brexit.

    If the Tories extend again and refuse to deliver Brexit the Brexit Party will be over 30% and the Tories back to the 9% they got in the European Parliament elections
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    Actually Id say the political structures, which imo are no longer meeting needs. And where the politics goes the money follows.
    Oh I see it's the entire Western liberal capitalist system you dislike. Gotit. Well, comrade, at least now you have options for its overthrow.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,113
    The only political parties I have ever been in was the SDP and, briefly, the Lib Dems after the amalgamation. They seem a somewhat archaic concept to me, largely undemocratic, generally far more extreme than those who actually vote for them and subject to personality cults.

    These deficiencies are not enhanced by the loss of the likes of Richard Nabavi, David Herdson, Big G or TSE. If political parties are to contribute to the running of the country sensible members (shoe wear apart, obviously) are essential to keep a grip on extremest tendencies. The likes of Joff dropping out of Labour membership is another example of the same problem.

    Grass roots and activist bases have been the best defence of the established parties to populists like Farage and have generally been very successful in any election that actually counts as the recent by election showed once again. If those roots die and the activists depart our politics will become ever more febrile.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780

    He doesn’t raise a fair point.
    Alanbrooke is a troll who gets hard on people’s suffering.

    His one tune is to come on here and make irrelevant accusations while rubbing his hands at the impending bonfire.

    One can group ostensibly pro-Brexit posters into stupid, mad, and bad.

    Alanbrooke is “bad”.
    LOL

    you really do need that break
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    I got over 600 votes last May and increased the Tory vote in 2018 in a LD held ward
    But you lost. Get over it, you loser!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    True (noting that the WA is simply base camp on a long and arduous climb), but then the willingness of the hard leavers to sabotage any sort of compromise Brexit wasn't unforeseeable, was it?
    Probably not although I’m disappointed with the number.

    But the moderates on Labour’s side deserve massive opprobrium as well

    This is one of those issues which should rise above party politics. It’s fine to carp and play games and criticise. But when push comes to shove (may be on the 2nd or 3rd try after they had extracted maximum concessions/inflicted damage) they should have done the right thing and voted for the WA
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    eristdoof said:

    I feel this is an unfair criticism as you are criticising when Mr Herdson left. The decision to leave an organisation is binary but the reasons behid it are on a continuum. Most people will remain a member for quite a while as that organisation changes, although they would not join given the current situation. Making the choice to leave is not an easy one, especially after having held a relatively importanat role as Mr Herdson has.
    I very much respect David's decision and his reply to me is very fair. I think what I struggle with is that to my mind, this was inevitable. David mentions that it is important to win and that's why Boris is PM. The Euros showed that the Tories are utterly f***** without their Brexit supporting voters.

    I appreciate that it must be galling for those on the opposite side of the debate to see the ERG rewarded for not voting for May's deal. But that's politics, I am afraid. It is not a fair business.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited August 2019

    Brexit has created a highly motivated pro-EU segment of the electorate. Even if the leavers manage to work out how to leave we'll be rejoining. I think we'll probably sign up for the Euro as well. When the dust settles I think even the Conservatives will come round.
    Over 40% of voters back No Deal, barely a third at most back joining the Euro even with 48% having voted Remain. If the Euro was a requirement of rejoining the EU it is guaranteed we would never rejoin, when even Sweden and Denmark voted against joining the Euro in referendums they have held on it you can guarantee we would too.

    Had the Euro been a requirement of staying in the EU I would have voted Leave not Remain
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780
    TOPPING said:

    Oh I see it's the entire Western liberal capitalist system you dislike. Gotit. Well, comrade, at least now you have options for its overthrow.
    rolls eyes

    youre off on a Brexit Fever again

    over centralisation is a largely UK phenomenon most Liberal Democracies dont have our attachmennt to it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    alex. said:

    The missing point about whether the Queen should seek and follow the advice of the outgoing PM, is that it is predicated on the outgoing PM being prepared to offer it! All the scenarios outlined seemed to be assuming that Johnson barricades the entrance to No. 10 and refuses to come out! If he won’t offer advice and/or accept the judgement of Parliament, then she has no alternative but to look elsewhere.

    HMQ is 93. Prince Philip is 98.

    That’s where it falls down

    I simply don’t believe that Johnson will do that. He’s in his rights not to resign until a successor has demonstrated their ability to command a majority but I don’t think he will hold on beyond that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    PClipp said:

    But you lost. Get over it, you loser!
    I have, unlike diehard Remainers I am not asking for another vote (despite only failing to get elected by 2 votes last year)
  • Charles said:

    Probably not although I’m disappointed with the number.

    But the moderates on Labour’s side deserve massive opprobrium as well

    This is one of those issues which should rise above party politics. It’s fine to carp and play games and criticise. But when push comes to shove (may be on the 2nd or 3rd try after they had extracted maximum concessions/inflicted damage) they should have done the right thing and voted for the WA
    Absolutely!!!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,477
    IanB2 said:

    In a PR system you generally vote for whoever represents your own views the best, rely on the system to deliver appropriate representation and then for your representatives to best argue their corner in whatever parliament arises as a result. Our system on the other hand drives people toward the lesser of evils.

    David and Rochdale may well struggle to find another party that represents their views as well as their previous homes. Three things may happen: they enjoy the independence of being freed from membership and revel as future political freethinkers; their party changes (or the importance of current conflicts slowly fades) such that in time they will be happy to rejoin; or once freed from having to self-justify their previous position their political views start to change in ways they cannot yet foresee, such that signing up with another party becomes possible.

    Meanwhile it ought to be possible for anyone interested in politics to identify the lesser of evils in terms of who they can actually vote for in their locality. Voting for a party doesn't mean you have to join!
    Agree with all of that.

    I want them to have parties that represent their views, but an electoral system that doesn't give undue weight to those views. For them it has moved from one to the other. That is they had too much representation and now have none.

    And one can see that with sensible people like this, with different views, that they could work together and influence each other with exchanges in those views. That is far more healthy and less adversarial.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Charles said:

    Probably not although I’m disappointed with the number.

    But the moderates on Labour’s side deserve massive opprobrium as well

    This is one of those issues which should rise above party politics. It’s fine to carp and play games and criticise. But when push comes to shove (may be on the 2nd or 3rd try after they had extracted maximum concessions/inflicted damage) they should have done the right thing and voted for the WA
    One of Theresa May's many mistakes was to treat the referendum result as a general election result wherein the opposition is rightly ignored. She set up the "crush the saboteurs" narrative and began to run Brexit as a Conservative Party project (as indeed we are seeing it is now).

    The Opposition's role is to oppose. It is to look at every government policy and say, legitimately, I wouldn't have started from there. That's what people vote for them to do. Tax, health, defence, etc. The government doesn't get to decide which national events are supposed to have unconditional support from the opposition.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I do not need your respect so get over it
    Guys this is a little unedifying
  • 148grss said:
    A bloke says, a bloke says, a bloke says.

    Show us some data.

    And for your information food has always rotted in the fields - anyone who has ever been to a pick-your-own, seen an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    But I do love how Reactionary Remainers are so willing to spout the NFU's self-serving propaganda.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Un-lurking simply to say ‘wow’ and ‘Good luck’ David. Politics is toxic today and best avoided unless you know you can make a difference.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited August 2019
    Scott_P said:
    The Tories last won under 30s in 1983 so unless Boris repeats the Thatcher landslide and gets a a Tory majority of almost 150 the Tories will not win young people.

    It is 45 to 54s who will decide the next general election and the 36% favourable rating Boris is on with them is enough to win that election
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632

    It has long been a thing. It is just that they were from the other side of the debate before and so everyone thought they could be ignored.

    What is a thing now is PB ex-Tories who think they had some god given right to expect the party to continue to follow the same failed policies and alienate a large majority of the population and who now want to write articles about how terrible it is that they have had to leave their particular little club.
    That is unfair. When @Sean_Fear left the Tories to join UKIP a few years ago OGH wrote a very good header about it, why it was not good for the Tories etc.

    A party which drives away long-standing committed loyal members is in trouble.

    Particularly if it does not listen but is just personally nasty about the individuals concerned.

    I am not a member of a political party nor ever likely to be but I can see that for those who are it must be a great wrench. It's a shame for all of us if political parties become narrow and obsessive.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Floater said:



    He raises a fair point - there are medicine shortages unrelated to Brexit. The NHS declines to provide certain care or medicines regularly.

    People die because of this.

    Yet only the possibility of a death "caused" by Brexit is worthy of outrage.

    It's almost like it is just being used as a stick to bash Brexit rather than due to any care for people.

    The NHS has a budget. They need to consider which treatments are cost effective using currently available evidence and the borderline cases are regularly reviewed. The decisions are made based on efficacy of the medicine, quality of life of the patient, the number of patiens who benefit and the cost of the medicine. This process places huge pressure on the Pharma companies to keep the price of pharmaceuticals low, which is borne out by all international comparisons. The NHS is far from perfect but in this respect the UK gets exceptionally good value.

    You cannot equate a death "caused by" the NHS not having an infinite budget with a death "caused by" Brexit logistical problems (if such a death were to occur).
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Scott_P said:
    Well then, the earlier the GE the better for Johnson
  • TOPPING said:

    One of Theresa May's many mistakes was to treat the referendum result as a general election result wherein the opposition is rightly ignored. She set up the "crush the saboteurs" narrative and began to run Brexit as a Conservative Party project (as indeed we are seeing it is now).

    The Opposition's role is to oppose. It is to look at every government policy and say, legitimately, I wouldn't have started from there. That's what people vote for them to do. Tax, health, defence, etc. The government doesn't get to decide which national events are supposed to have unconditional support from the opposition.
    Crushing the saboteurs was a valid strategy but the saboteurs were within the Conservative party.

    For all the "the Conservative party has changed, its not the party I joined" resignations its a fact that the various Conservative fanatics have been leading politicians for years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited August 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    That is unfair. When @Sean_Fear left the Tories to join UKIP a few years ago OGH wrote a very good header about it, why it was not good for the Tories etc.

    A party which drives away long-standing committed loyal members is in trouble.

    Particularly if it does not listen but is just personally nasty about the individuals concerned.

    I am not a member of a political party nor ever likely to be but I can see that for those who are it must be a great wrench. It's a shame for all of us if political parties become narrow and obsessive.
    The Tories have lost more voters to the Brexit Party by extending than they will to the LDs by going for No Deal. I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and an orderly departure from the EU and am sorry most MPs did not but that having been voted down 3 times No Deal Brexit it has to be as if the Tories fail to deliver Brexit they will go the way of the dodo and the Brexit Party will replace them as the main party of the right
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    A bloke says, a bloke says, a bloke says.

    Show us some data.

    And for your information food has always rotted in the fields - anyone who has ever been to a pick-your-own, seen an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    But I do love how Reactionary Remainers are so willing to spout the NFU's self-serving propaganda.
    Is a survey done by the NFU not data? Are the government documents uncovered by FOI not data? Or is it all fake news?
  • I’m sorry to see you leave David. Thank you for baring your soul.

    Social groups can behave in chaotic ways. We are used to a reasonably stable 2+ party system with power swapping between them - this resulted in reasonably consistent policy over decades.

    What we have now is an injection of an attractor that has 1) altered the traditional left/right boundary into an up/down in/out boundary, 2) reset the leadership of the 2 main parties accordingly and 3) polarised the voters. There is no way back to the old system until either the attractor is removed or another one is added - I’m not sure people want even more change though.

    We will only really understand what happens next when there is an election. The current situation is so far from our experience to date that nobody really knows what is happening.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031

    twas ever thus
    Pitchforks out, lads. It's time for some culling of the ruling class.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,475
    HYUFD said:

    I have, unlike diehard Remainers I am not asking for another vote (despite only failing to get elected by 2 votes last year)
    But the difference is you will have another vote....
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Mr. Brooke, I'd suggest the country being led by a man who marches under Stalin banners would not be an improvement.

    As opposed to someone who marches under a Benny Hill salute?

    image
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,477
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories have lost more voters to the Brexit Party by extending than they will to the LDs by going for No Deal. I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and an orderly departure from the EU and am sorry most MPs did not but that having been voted down 3 times No Deal Brexit it has to be as if the Tories fail to deliver Brexit they will go the way of the dodo and the Brexit Party will replace them as the main party of the right
    That post implies you are driven by what is the best option for your party's success. As posted by someone early that is like supporting a football team. Shouldn't you have your own principles and follow them.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785

    But the difference is you will have another vote....
    and the fact that he does not have the intellect to see that is not an analogy demonstrates the electorate were correct to reject him.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780
    edited August 2019

    A bloke says, a bloke says, a bloke says.

    Show us some data.

    And for your information food has always rotted in the fields - anyone who has ever been to a pick-your-own, seen an apple tree or walked across a potato field knows that.

    But I do love how Reactionary Remainers are so willing to spout the NFU's self-serving propaganda.
    weve been over this before

    we waste £20 billion of food each year. In fresh food something like 30% reaches its expiry date and then gets thrown away.

    The worst offender is lettuce and leaves nearly half of which gets thrown out.

    So a farmer in Andulucia drains the local aquifers, and runs down the soil, spreads iffy chemicals on top of his lettuce, then employs immigrant labor on shit wages to keep costs down, loads a lorry to drive 1000 miles to the UK where half his porudce gets thrown away in plastic bags to landfill or pollute the sea,

    Why are we saying this is a good thing ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    kjh said:

    That post implies you are driven by what is the best option for your party's success. As posted by someone early that is like supporting a football team. Shouldn't you have your own principles and follow them.
    I voted Tory even in the European Parliament elections which the Brexit Party won but I also respect democracy and recognise we have to Leave now Deal or No Deal
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    FF43 said:

    "Virtue signalling" is a lazy term that aims to delegitimise principle.

    Devastating critique of the Party from a conservative point of view. The Lib Dems are the clear conservative option these days, curiously, including keeping the United Kingdom intact.
    If you think the Lib Dems are the answer then the UK is truly F****D and deluded to boot.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    What an excellent piece by David Herdson.

    Though I`m not a Conservative Party supporter I, like many liberals, value the Conservative Party (often secretly) as a far preferable option to a collectivist party.

    Through this lens, we have four major issues which are not all solvable:

    1) Brexit issue needs putting behind us fast one way or another
    2) The Conservative Party`s chances of winning another election are close to nil with the upsurge of the Brexit Party. We could be witnessing the death of the Conservative Party if Brexit does not happen.
    3) The threat of a Corbyn government must be extinguished
    4) The Union is under threat if Brexit goes ahead

    I, like many, are in despair. All because of Cameron`s dratted referendum.

    Can anyone cheer me up??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861

    But the difference is you will have another vote....
    So could diehard Remainers if they campaign to rejoin after we have left and elect a Government on that platform but we have to respect the first vote to Leave first
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    148grss said:

    Well then, the earlier the GE the better for Johnson
    He barely has a favourable opinion amongst 65+ [ almost my age group ]. And our numbers are shrinking by the day.
    I have great faith in the younger generation. They will ensure this country remain in the correct path.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On topic: David has left the party for much the same reasons as I did, but his departure is much more significant than mine. I was just an ordinary member, helping where I could but not involved in local politics or in any official role. David's CV as a former councillor and twice as an Association chairman speaks for itself. It speaks volumes also that TSE has left.

    In national terms, the immediate significance of people like David leaving is that his views will be shared by quite a substantial number of moderate Tory MPs. Some of those may resign the whip, or they may feel that it is better to stay and try to influence things as much as they can, but either way they are likely to try to prevent a no-deal exit which, as David rightly says, will be extremely damaging to the economy. Whether they will succeed in this, and what mechanism they will try, remains up in the air, but these are dangerous and disturbing times, made worse by the fact that the main opposition party is also wholly unfit for office.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Because they've forgotten - or never learnt- how to think for themselves?
    I think it’s because they see politics as a game and don’t understand that “why” and “what” are more important than “how”

    Then when an adviser with a consistent worldview and a set of linked policies come along they have no framework or principles to measure it against. Hence the Svengali like relationship

    Basically we are governed by student politicians who never grew up
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861

    He barely has a favourable opinion amongst 65+ [ almost my age group ]. And our numbers are shrinking by the day.
    I have great faith in the younger generation. They will ensure this country remain in the correct path.
    The younger generation as the polling shows also now have no faith in Corbyn, the older generation's faith in Boris therefore means Boris still beats Corbyn
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Charles said:

    Guys this is a little unedifying
    I find it rather curious that Casino_Royale is going for Big_G for being a sheep-like follower when we have HYUFD on this site.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories last won under 30s in 1983 so unless Boris repeats the Thatcher landslide and gets a a Tory majority of almost 150 the Tories will not win young people.

    It is 45 to 54s who will decide the next general election and the 36% favourable rating Boris is on with them is enough to win that election
    Have the selectors called you up for the Lords test ? England desperately needs a spinner !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    HYUFD said:

    Over 40% of voters back No Deal, barely a third at most back joining the Euro even with 48% having voted Remain. If the Euro was a requirement of rejoining the EU it is guaranteed we would never rejoin, when even Sweden and Denmark voted against joining the Euro in referendums they have held on it you can guarantee we would too.

    Had the Euro been a requirement of staying in the EU I would have voted Leave not Remain
    But had the Euro a requirement and through a strong campaign "remain" had won, you'd have respected the result ?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    The younger generation as the polling shows also now have no faith in Corbyn, the older generation's faith in Boris therefore means Boris still beats Corbyn
    Which underlines my point. The younger generation is smart !
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Crushing the saboteurs was a valid strategy but the saboteurs were within the Conservative party.

    For all the "the Conservative party has changed, its not the party I joined" resignations its a fact that the various Conservative fanatics have been leading politicians for years.
    Even Crush the Saboteurs depended on the notion that the expected Tory landslide would not consist largely of even more Brexiteer headbanger MPs. Would CCHQ have thought to check that?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,451
    Mrs C, better Benny Hill than Stalin.

    Although I'd prefer a good option...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,708

    It had its roots in the attitudes of establishment Conservatives. Up until Suez most still thought of the UK as an independent great power and recognised a federalising Europe was a bad fit.
    Eden himself was very keen that we should have got involved in the European Coal and Steel Community in 1950, and argued that the pooling of sovereignty was inevitable and desirable.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    On topic: David has left the party for much the same reasons as I did, but his departure is much more significant than mine. I was just an ordinary member, helping where I could but not involved in local politics or in any official role. David's CV as a former councillor and twice as an Association chairman speaks for itself. It speaks volumes also that TSE has left.

    In national terms, the immediate significance of people like David leaving is that his views will be shared by quite a substantial number of moderate Tory MPs. Some of those may resign the whip, or they may feel that it is better to stay and try to influence things as much as they can, but either way they are likely to try to prevent a no-deal exit which, as David rightly says, will be extremely damaging to the economy. Whether they will succeed in this, and what mechanism they will try, remains up in the air, but these are dangerous and disturbing times, made worse by the fact that the main opposition party is also wholly unfit for office.

    :+1:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    One of Theresa May's many mistakes was to treat the referendum result as a general election result wherein the opposition is rightly ignored. She set up the "crush the saboteurs" narrative and began to run Brexit as a Conservative Party project (as indeed we are seeing it is now).

    The Opposition's role is to oppose. It is to look at every government policy and say, legitimately, I wouldn't have started from there. That's what people vote for them to do. Tax, health, defence, etc. The government doesn't get to decide which national events are supposed to have unconditional support from the opposition.
    Sure, but the consequences of no deal are less than favourable.

    Opposing the WA had a price tag attached
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,852
    malcolmg said:

    If you think the Lib Dems are the answer then the UK is truly F****D and deluded to boot.
    I wasn't commenting on whether the Lib Dems are the answer. My specific point addressing David's header, is that the Lib Dems are the only party offering conservative policies
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    Charles said:

    Guys this is a little unedifying
    I think Casino_Royale's posts are highly unedifying. They are posts that typify the type of unpleasant fanatical introspective Little England view that now dominates the Conservative Party. The Party will be reduced to a rump of Brexit-Lite swivel-eyed, intellectually challenged angry old men, aligned with unthinking blind Bozo worshippers like HYUFD.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,477
    HYUFD said:

    I voted Tory even in the European Parliament elections which the Brexit Party won but I also respect democracy and recognise we have to Leave now Deal or No Deal
    I'm not sure what that has to do with my post. I respect you position on the point you make here, but that wasn't the point I was making. Your previous post twice implied (although didn't state) motives to simply ensure success for the Tories.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    edited August 2019

    On topic: David has left the party for much the same reasons as I did, but his departure is much more significant than mine. I was just an ordinary member, helping where I could but not involved in local politics or in any official role. David's CV as a former councillor and twice as an Association chairman speaks for itself. It speaks volumes also that TSE has left.

    In national terms, the immediate significance of people like David leaving is that his views will be shared by quite a substantial number of moderate Tory MPs. Some of those may resign the whip, or they may feel that it is better to stay and try to influence things as much as they can, but either way they are likely to try to prevent a no-deal exit which, as David rightly says, will be extremely damaging to the economy. Whether they will succeed in this, and what mechanism they will try, remains up in the air, but these are dangerous and disturbing times, made worse by the fact that the main opposition party is also wholly unfit for office.

    In a funny sort of way, I find the three resignations quite unfortunate in many ways. TSE, actually surprises me the least. Ever since Cameron left he is practically homeless. That was not the case with either David or yourself.
    You see the mirror image with Southam.
    I am just hanging on despite everything. I still think the party is bigger than any individual or the latest fashion.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 685
    edited August 2019
    As a representative of the pharma / Medtech industry I thought I would try to explain the issue we face. It is not the problem of a truck being physically stuck at Dover that is the problem but the lack of a clear regulatory regime. There is talk of a UK mark to replace a CE mark but no guidance has been issued on this proposal which would take at least a year to implement. In the meantime the country cannot just act as if nothing has happened. Our industry is naturally cautious and would rather take product off the market than produce it illegally,

    This is already happening new product introduction in the UK is slowing down and manufacturers are focusing on other markets. The drop in the £ is accelerating the desire to look elsewhere for business. There is no incentive for our industry to support brexit.

    As has been rightly said people die every day in the UK. The NHS saves many of them. It will still do that but just not as well as before in comparison to say Germany. Waiting times will grow and fewer of the latest techniques will be available.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Even Crush the Saboteurs depended on the notion that the expected Tory landslide would not consist largely of even more Brexiteer headbanger MPs. Would CCHQ have thought to check that?
    The saboteurs were then thought to be the awkward remainers not the ERG
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,076
    HYUFD said:

    I have, unlike diehard Remainers I am not asking for another vote (despite only failing to get elected by 2 votes last year)
    Wow. And you still don't regret telling remainers to 'p**s off and vote LibDem'!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Pulpstar said:

    But had the Euro a requirement and through a strong campaign "remain" had won, you'd have respected the result ?
    I have decided Westminster is no longer fit for purpose. Given the choice I would vote for rejoin/Euro/Schengen.

    Pre-Brexit I would not have done that.
  • 148grss said:

    Is a survey done by the NFU not data? Are the government documents uncovered by FOI not data? Or is it all fake news?
    So you don't have any data.

    Now let me give you a scenario:

    Farmer A invests in machinery and gets his crop harvested.
    Farmer B provides fair pay and conditions and get his crop harvested.
    Farmer C does neither and doesn't get his crop harvested.

    Why should I have any sympathy for Farmer C ?

    Better IMO that Farmer C goes bankrupt and his land is bought by the more progressive Farmers A and B.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Charles said:

    Sure, but the consequences of no deal are less than favourable.

    Opposing the WA had a price tag attached
    No deal was not the only alternative once the WA was rejected. The government could have changed its red lines and sought a compromise with Labour. It could have gone for a second referendum. It could have called a general election. It could have even revoked Article 50. Instead it has chosen no deal. That is their choice, nobody else's. Don't blame the opposition.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,385
    malcolmg said:

    If you think the Lib Dems are the answer then the UK is truly F****D and deluded to boot.
    Well Malcolm, another measured response well supported by evidence. The fact is, as you well know the Lib Dems are on course for a huge upsurge, including against the SNP. The Nationalists are getting a temporary uptick because of the collapse of the Tories in Scotland, but in several areas where the SNP used to be strong, including the Borders and the North East, SNP support is badly faltering.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    Cyclefree said:

    That is unfair. When @Sean_Fear left the Tories to join UKIP a few years ago OGH wrote a very good header about it, why it was not good for the Tories etc.

    A party which drives away long-standing committed loyal members is in trouble.

    Particularly if it does not listen but is just personally nasty about the individuals concerned.

    I am not a member of a political party nor ever likely to be but I can see that for those who are it must be a great wrench. It's a shame for all of us if political parties become narrow and obsessive.
    I rejoined as a result of campaigning for a friend in Battersea.

    I far prefer the WA to a No Deal Brexit, but prefer a No Deal Brexit to revoking A. 50.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I think Casino_Royale's posts are highly unedifying. They are posts that typify the type of unpleasant fanatical introspective Little England view that now dominates the Conservative Party. The Party will be reduced to a rump of Brexit-Lite swivel-eyed, intellectually challenged angry old men, aligned with unthinking blind Bozo worshippers like HYUFD.
    I was deliberately not ascribing blame. Your post does not help lift the tone of the discussion
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025

    A somewhat lachrymose cri de cœur, but when all that's left is the hectoring nutcases saying the Union WILL endure, well, that's nothing left.

    'The growing dread of a Scots unionist'

    https://tinyurl.com/yyec9xky

    just comes up with paywall TUD
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,437
    On the "food shortages" question, I'm not expecting people to starve either but we are used, especially in the towns and cities, to being able to walk into a supermarket any hour of the day or night and for that supermarket to have the things we want. I have three 24-hour main supermarkets within walking distance as well as any number of local shops in the Barking Road which claim to be open all the time.

    The point is, if my cupboards were bare at 4am, all I need to fill them is the money to buy food and the means to convey said food home.

    The disruption of No Deal, as we saw with the 2000 fuel strike, will mean temporary shortages of certain things which will be irritating and confusing but hardly the end of civilisation. I could imagine a bit of panic buying around 31/10 which would exacerbate any problems but we won't run out of milk and bread even if they run short in a few places.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,076
    nichomar said:

    The saboteurs were then thought to be the awkward remainers not the ERG
    Tbf I reckon May was also hoping the ERG would be outnumbered by all the newbies on her own side, representing Bolsover and the like.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    Charles said:

    Sure, but the consequences of no deal are less than favourable.

    Opposing the WA had a price tag attached
    Labour voted for the referendum, by and large they voted for Article 50 to be triggered. You then Simply must follow through and vote for the deal unless you truly consider "No Deal" to be better than the Withdrawal Agreement which is only really true for those on the spartan wing of the Tory right and which the EU simply won't move on for anyone including Johnson or Corbyn.
    Labour has been utterly preposterous on all of this.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    As a representative of the pharma / Medtech industry I thought I would try to explain the issue we face. It is not the problem of a truck being physically stuck at Dover that is the problem but the lack of a clear regulatory regime. There is talk of a UK mark to replace a CE mark but no guidance has been issued on this proposal which would take at least a year to implement. In the meantime the country cannot just act as if nothing has happened. Our industry is naturally cautious and would rather take product off the market than produce it illegally,

    This is already happening new product introduction in the UK is slowing down and manufacturers are focusing on other markets. The drop in the £ is accelerating the desire to look elsewhere for business. There is no incentive for our industry to support brexit.

    As has been rightly said people die every day in the UK. The NHS saves many of them. It will still do that but just not as well as before in comparison to say Germany. Waiting times will grow and fewer of the latest techniques will be available.

    We can unilaterally continue to recognise the CE mark until the new regime is ready

    (Btw in the medical industry CE mark is BS. It doesn’t have relevant efficacy data)
  • weve been over this before

    we waste £20 billion of food each year. In fresh food something like 30% reaches its expiry date and then gets thrown away.

    The worst offender is lettuce and leaves nearly half of which gets thrown out.

    So a farmer in Andulucia drains the local aquifers, and runs down the soil, spreads iffy chemicals on top of his lettuce, then employs immigrant labor on shit wages to keep costs down, loads a lorry to drive 1000 miles to the UK where half his porudce gets thrown away in plastic bags to landfill or pollute the sea,

    Why are we saying this is a good thing ?
    Its the madness of an economy based on consumption and ever increasing GDP.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182

    I think Casino_Royale's posts are highly unedifying. They are posts that typify the type of unpleasant fanatical introspective Little England view that now dominates the Conservative Party. The Party will be reduced to a rump of Brexit-Lite swivel-eyed, intellectually challenged angry old men, aligned with unthinking blind Bozo worshippers like HYUFD.
    I read Casino_Royale’s angry attacks (see also his spat with Cyclefree last night) as cognitive dissonance. Inside he realises Brexit is destroying the reasons he Brexited...

    It’s like that last episode of “The Jinx” where the protagonist finds himself vomiting in the bathroom.
    (If anyone hasn’t seen this, it is only the best documentary series ever).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    No deal was not the only alternative once the WA was rejected. The government could have changed its red lines and sought a compromise with Labour. It could have gone for a second referendum. It could have called a general election. It could have even revoked Article 50. Instead it has chosen no deal. That is their choice, nobody else's. Don't blame the opposition.
    Labour was in no mood for compromise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,451
    Most Conservative MPs are either overtly pro-EU, or supported the deal. I wonder what they make of the PM's positioning, given they backed him so strongly.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 685
    edited August 2019
    Charles said:

    We can unilaterally continue to recognise the CE mark until the new regime is ready

    (Btw in the medical industry CE mark is BS. It doesn’t have relevant efficacy data)
    Not sure we can on wto as this would be discriminatory. We would then have to recognise China marks and Indian marks on generic drugs. Also how do we ensue against fakes which is a major issue in our industry. Would it be illegal to supply a fake ce mark device? Just not sure.

    I assume my team of phds and engineers who spend their life on regulatory compliance will take your comment on the ce mark well. I sometimes wonder whether the patients we serve really deserve half the technology we develop. Brexiters are mostly old so if it goes wrong it maybe considered as serendipity
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,477
    malcolmg said:

    If you think the Lib Dems are the answer then the UK is truly F****D and deluded to boot.
    Hi Malc.

    As a LD in Surrey, whose only connection to Scotland is 4 visits and a Scottish wife whose entire family have defected to the South and East of England I would appreciate some feedback on the relationship between the LDs and SNP.

    From my point of view (having no local knowledge) I feel there should be very little difference. Both are socially liberal and have similar economic views. The LDs believe in the EU and as much devolution as possible and the SNP believe in Independence within the EU. The difference between those two positions appears to be a dance on a pin head.

    So what is it? From my point of view (if we are both in the EU) I have no issue with Independence.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    No deal was not the only alternative once the WA was rejected. The government could have changed its red lines and sought a compromise with Labour. It could have gone for a second referendum. It could have called a general election. It could have even revoked Article 50. Instead it has chosen no deal. That is their choice, nobody else's. Don't blame the opposition.
    It spent a long time negotiating with Labour

    I blame all MPs regardless of party
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    stodge said:

    The disruption of No Deal, as we saw with the 2000 fuel strike, will mean temporary shortages of certain things which will be irritating and confusing but hardly the end of civilisation. I could imagine a bit of panic buying around 31/10 which would exacerbate any problems but we won't run out of milk and bread even if they run short in a few places.

    But we will "run out" in those few places. And as we have seen that can easily lead to civil unrest.

    When KFC ran out of chicken, there was plenty of chicken available at other outlets, and people still freaked out. When none of your local shops have milk for a day, it will be headline news
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited August 2019

    It is not the problem of a truck being physically stuck at Dover that is the problem but the lack of a clear regulatory regime. There is talk of a UK mark to replace a CE mark but no guidance has been issued on this proposal which would take at least a year to implement.

    This is the kind if thing that will kill the Tories if they go through with No Deal. No Deal enthusiasts will just be assuming this stuff has been dealt with.

    I think this also shows the (narrow political) wisdom of Labour's strategy of holding back a bit on the VONC etc rather than hitting the government at the first possible opportunity. Once you get to early September businesses will be screaming their disbelief that nobody in government can tell them WTF they're supposed to do to keep doing business at the end of the following month. They really want at least a news cycle of ministers making confused hopeless faces on TV in response to simple questions before it turns to the whole business of bringing the government down and putting Corbyn or some other caretaker in Number 10.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Charles said:

    Probably not although I’m disappointed with the number.

    But the moderates on Labour’s side deserve massive opprobrium as well

    This is one of those issues which should rise above party politics. It’s fine to carp and play games and criticise. But when push comes to shove (may be on the 2nd or 3rd try after they had extracted maximum concessions/inflicted damage) they should have done the right thing and voted for the WA
    Translation: look here chaps, you've had your fun, now do as I say (preferably delivered by Terry Thomas lookalike carrying hunting whip).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    Charles said:

    It spent a long time negotiating with Labour

    I blame all MPs regardless of party
    Start with blaming yourself, and then work back from there.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,852
    Sean_F said:

    Continuing political and economic integration with the rest of the EU was not a good or sustainable option either. It was always going to provoke a reaction, eventually, because it was taking people in a direction they didn't want to go.
    We are where we are. You can't hope to solve a problem until you recognise you have it. In this case to recognise Brexit to be a disaster. At that point, you can work out the least damaging remaining option, which I would suggest is either Norway or indefinite delay.

    We are not at that level of awareness of the problem we are in. That's why we are thrashing around. No Deal is a manifestation of Brexit failure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    Sean_F said:

    Labour was in no mood for compromise.
    On the third reading, it was solely the WA being voted through. I had a look through it and noted Intrastat returns (You can't get much more leaving the EU in name only than that) continued !
    For Labour MPs, it was one of tribalism, not really wanting to leave in any form whatsoever, placing your personal feelings of being hurt by the mean headlines of the Daily Mail and nasty words of the Tories above a rational decision (I'm looking at you Lisa Nandy), or being absolubtely thick as pig shit that would lead one to oppose the WA.
    Plenty of reason 2 for the "moderates", reason 1 and 4 for the leadership and their cabal.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    Charles said:

    I was deliberately not ascribing blame. Your post does not help lift the tone of the discussion
    I think the "blame" if that is an appropriate term, is clear.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited August 2019
    Scott_P said:

    But we will "run out" in those few places. And as we have seen that can easily lead to civil unrest.

    When KFC ran out of chicken, there was plenty of chicken available at other outlets, and people still freaked out. When none of your local shops have milk for a day, it will be headline news

    And speaking from earthquake experience, a few thing running out is enough to get people stocking up on things they wouldn't normally buy in quantity, which in turn causes more things to run out, which...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,220
    malcolmg said:

    just comes up with paywall TUD
    If you do a google on 'The growing dread of a Scots unionist' it should come up free to view.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I assume my team of phds and engineers who spend their life on regulatory compliance will take your comment on the ce mark well. I sometimes wonder whether the patients we serve really deserve half the technology we develop. Brexiters are mostly old so if it goes wrong it maybe considered as serendipity

    Do you have anything for burns?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203

    And speaking from earthquake experience, a few thing running out is enough to get people stocking up on things they wouldn't normally buy in quantity, which in turn causes more things to run out, which...
    Do people start buying enough bread to feed the 5000 in Japan too ?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    This is the kind if thing that will kill the Tories if they go through with No Deal. No Deal enthusiasts will just be assuming this stuff has been dealt with.

    I think this also shows the (narrow political) wisdom of Labour's strategy of holding back a bit on the VONC etc rather than hitting the government at the first possible opportunity. Once you get to early September businesses will be screaming their disbelief that nobody in government can tell them WTF they're supposed to do to keep doing business at the end of the following month. They really want at least a news cycle of ministers making confused hopeless faces on TV in response to simple questions before it turns to the whole business of bringing the government down and putting Corbyn or some other caretaker in Number 10.
    Yes. The VONC has to come when it is clear that chaos looms - when Parliament resumes in October may be the moment.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    What is a Special Adviser even doing on national TV? If he is the story, that's a massive problem in itself.

    Good old Brexit, saving us from unelected bureaucrats...
    Sky News doorstepped him. They've had 2 years to do the same to Seamus - haven't quite got round to it yet mind you.

    Question for Mr Herdson - what do you think the alternative to Boris's firm timeline approach is ?

    Because 3 years of May style dithering has caused untold damage to the Uk and the Con party.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Pulpstar said:

    Do people start buying enough bread to feed the 5000 in Japan too ?
    Not sure about bread but after 3/11 you couldn't get instant noodles for love or money.
This discussion has been closed.