politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Despite the dire polling, Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere
Comments
-
The Liberals are now polling closer to Labour in most polls than they have been at any time since 1983 when the SDP/Liberal Alliance were just 2% from overtaking Foot's Labour in votesharejustin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.0 -
There was clearly some unwinding of Labour tactical voting in 2015 as reflected in left of centre voters being repelled by the LibDems having entered the Coalition.That was sufficient - as you say - to see the Labour vote recover to a similar level to 2005. In addition to the limited Labour recovery , there were fairly significant votes for Plaid and the Greens that year. Much of the tactical shift had occurred pre-2005 and was not reversed - in that Labour was no longer seen as being in serious contention given their failure to advance in the landslide conditions of 1997.ydoethur said:
But it contradicts your point. There is no evidence of tactical voting here. Most of the changes in vote share can be explained by the changing demography of the seat. Fewer manual workers, more middle-class retirees. Just as, in 2015, there is no evidence of tactical unwind.justin124 said:
Yes - that reflected the Tory campaign strategy in LibDem seats across GB in 2015 - Only a Tory vote can prevent chaos under Ed Milliband!'.ydoethur said:
In 2015 Labour's vote went back to almost exactly the same level it had been in in 2005. Most of the lost Liberal Democrat vote seems to have switched directly to the Tories, although probably there was a lot of churn (UKIP voters from Labour, for example).justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
That's not to say it's not happening, but if it is it seems to be on a pretty low level.0 -
What I posted looks suspiciously like a poll. It's from July.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls
0 -
Really - what about Cleggmania in the 2010 election when the LibDems led both Labour and the Tories in quite a few polls shortly before Polling Day?HYUFD said:
The Liberals are now polling closer to Labour in most polls than they have been at any time since 1983 when the SDP/Liberal Alliance were just 2% from overtaking Foot's Labour in votesharejustin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.0 -
Per Ardua Ad Astra - He certainly did.eek said:
It's nice to see that he even managed to fulfil what was probably his last ambition..JackW said:Archie McInnes, one of the last of "The Few" Battle of Britain fighter pilots has died hours after turning 100.
Flt Lt McInnes flew Hurricanes during the war and also took part in the hunt for the Bismarck. He lost an arm in 1941 after being shot down.
There now remain only five surviving Battle of Britain pilots - all centenarians :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-49204090
RIP.0 -
If there is a General Election in the next few months its entirely possible if not probable that Boris's Tories could get a higher share than Tony Blair's Labour got in 2005, despite there being effectively 5 main parties for votes now [Tory/Lab/LD/BXP and SNP] whereas there were only 3 then.0
-
In the actual election Brown's Labour were 6% ahead of Clegg's Liberals, the latest Yougov and Mori polls have the LDs closer to Corbyn Labour than thatjustin124 said:
Really - what about Cleggmania in the 2010 election when the LibDems led both Labour and the Tories in quite a few polls shortly before Polling Day?HYUFD said:
The Liberals are now polling closer to Labour in most polls than they have been at any time since 1983 when the SDP/Liberal Alliance were just 2% from overtaking Foot's Labour in votesharejustin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.0 -
It is not an actual head to head poll is itSouthamObserver said:
What I posted looks suspiciously like a poll. It's from July.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls0 -
Indeed.justin124 said:
Really - what about Cleggmania in the 2010 election when the LibDems led both Labour and the Tories in quite a few polls shortly before Polling Day?HYUFD said:
The Liberals are now polling closer to Labour in most polls than they have been at any time since 1983 when the SDP/Liberal Alliance were just 2% from overtaking Foot's Labour in votesharejustin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:UK_General_Election_2010_YouGov_Polls_Graph.png0 -
But there was quite a lot of talk on this board - and elsewhere - at the beginning of the 2017 campaign of the Libdems overtaking Labour and ending up in second place re - vote share. Admittedly such speculation disappeared within two weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
2017 the Lib Dems got squeezed by Labour as the only opposition to a landslide Tory Brexit.justin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
That's no longer the case. The Tinkerbell effect means the Lib Dems may be squeezing Labour rather than the other way around next time.
Be healthier for the country if the Lib Dems were able to displace the Marxist cabal as the part of the left.0 -
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.0 -
That is beside the point!HYUFD said:
In the actual election Brown's Labour were 7% ahead of Clegg's Liberals, the latest Yougov, Mori and Deltapolls have the LDs closer to Corbyn Labour than thatjustin124 said:
Really - what about Cleggmania in the 2010 election when the LibDems led both Labour and the Tories in quite a few polls shortly before Polling Day?HYUFD said:
The Liberals are now polling closer to Labour in most polls than they have been at any time since 1983 when the SDP/Liberal Alliance were just 2% from overtaking Foot's Labour in votesharejustin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.0 -
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.0 -
I don't remember such talk. The Libdems were never even close to Labour.justin124 said:
But there was quite a lot of talk on this board - and elsewhere - at the beginning of the 2017 campaign of the Libdems overtaking Labour and ending up in second place re - vote share. Admittedly such speculation disappeared within two weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
2017 the Lib Dems got squeezed by Labour as the only opposition to a landslide Tory Brexit.justin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
That's no longer the case. The Tinkerbell effect means the Lib Dems may be squeezing Labour rather than the other way around next time.
Be healthier for the country if the Lib Dems were able to displace the Marxist cabal as the part of the left.0 -
Yeah, but if France didn't have two rounds, and if it didn't use popular vote but instead used departments, and if departments were equal weighted rather than population weighted, and assuming that the departments won by people other than Macron and Le Pen didn't count. Then...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes but popular vote wins it in France and the Electoral College wins it in USA. Saying "ah but" is moot.HYUFD said:
There was no runoff and second round in the USA unlike France and Hillary won the popular vote as Macron did but Trump won most states as Le Pen won most departments and regions and the Electoral CollegePhilip_Thompson said:
So frigging what!?HYUFD said:
Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.rcs1000 said:
Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.HYUFD said:
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
Firstly departments don't matter.
Secondly it only the second round that decides it.
That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.
Le Pen would have won.
Frankly, it's hard to see why anyone would have a contrary view.
1 -
Well when you put it that way . . .rcs1000 said:
Yeah, but if France didn't have two rounds, and if it didn't use popular vote but instead used departments, and if departments were equal weighted rather than population weighted, and assuming that the departments won by people other than Macron and Le Pen didn't count. Then...Philip_Thompson said:
Yes but popular vote wins it in France and the Electoral College wins it in USA. Saying "ah but" is moot.HYUFD said:
There was no runoff and second round in the USA unlike France and Hillary won the popular vote as Macron did but Trump won most states as Le Pen won most departments and regions and the Electoral CollegePhilip_Thompson said:
So frigging what!?HYUFD said:
Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.rcs1000 said:
Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.HYUFD said:
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
Firstly departments don't matter.
Secondly it only the second round that decides it.
That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.
Le Pen would have won.
Frankly, it's hard to see why anyone would have a contrary view.0 -
You make a valid challenge on the data. Despite the anecdotal evidence that I and other activists came across during the campaign.ydoethur said:
But it contradicts your point. There is no evidence of tactical voting here. Most of the changes in vote share can be explained by the changing demography of the seat. Fewer manual workers, more middle-class retirees. Just as, in 2015, there is no evidence of tactical unwind.justin124 said:
Yes - that reflected the Tory campaign strategy in LibDem seats across GB in 2015 - Only a Tory vote can prevent chaos under Ed Milliband!'.ydoethur said:
In 2015 Labour's vote went back to almost exactly the same level it had been in in 2005. Most of the lost Liberal Democrat vote seems to have switched directly to the Tories, although probably there was a lot of churn (UKIP voters from Labour, for example).justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
That's not to say it's not happening, but if it is it seems to be on a pretty low level.
You overstate the case a little, until the end. Your last sentence is probably right. There was a little unwind in 2015 - a 4% rise in the Labour vote compared to a national figure of just over 1% (and this 1% of course includes the unwind going on in lots of other seats). And Labour was the only national party not to lose any deposits in 2017 - yet came very close to doing so in this by-election, suggesting its vote was squeezed down to rock bottom.0 -
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.0 -
Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/11573499267556065340 -
Polls go up and down, and no party can guarantee it can maintain today’s rating tomorrow (except in HYworld).Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed.justin124 said:
Really - what about Cleggmania in the 2010 election when the LibDems led both Labour and the Tories in quite a few polls shortly before Polling Day?HYUFD said:
The Liberals are now polling closer to Labour in most polls than they have been at any time since 1983 when the SDP/Liberal Alliance were just 2% from overtaking Foot's Labour in votesharejustin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:UK_General_Election_2010_YouGov_Polls_Graph.png
But comparing with Cleggmania - a spurt of a few days following the first national TV debate, which began to unwind quickly thereafter in the face of a major media onslaught (the Daily Mail even comparing Clegg to a Nazi) - is unreasonable.
The longer the LibDems maintain their rating, the more likely it is to endure. Especially as each election passes by and 20%+ of the voters actually cast their votes for the LibDems.
Also worth remembering that prior to 2010, the LibDems polling in the mid teens wasn’t exceptional, but normal.0 -
Taking back control, with a Sinn Fein groove. Can you imagine if this happened??
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.39721210 -
Aren't we already in that position? It being a question of preventing us from leaving on that date, which we'll do by default?eek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
If you mean how can he get to the position where we leave on 31 October without massive damage and loss of life, surely the answer is nothing - it's impossible.0 -
Well, it's a poll that puts Macron head to head against all his rivals. Le Pen would not make the run-off on those numbers.HYUFD said:
It is not an actual head to head poll is itSouthamObserver said:
What I posted looks suspiciously like a poll. It's from July.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls
0 -
The standard of umpiring in this test has been awful.
That said, Root should have been out bowled when he was given out caught.
Those bloody bails again.0 -
When Number One Fanboy calls him 'Bozo' you know BJ is in trouble!HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night0 -
No you don't to judge by your comments all of which are marked by an imbecility.Richard_Tyndall said:
I understand the history and social background of Ireland just as well as you do if not better you arrogant prick.TOPPING said:
For you, and Tyndall, as with Rob. There is sadly no way to be able to make a comment on Northern Ireland without understanding the history and context.Philip_Thompson said:
I've yet to hear one reason why the Irish can have a border they desire for Corporation Tax, a border they desire for VAT, a border they desire for Income Tax, a border they desire for Abortion, but a border for customs duties is beyond the pale?Richard_Tyndall said:
So like I said no mention of borders at all then.williamglenn said:
It says it should take the form of cooperation as members of the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they can't because the existence of a border, hard or soft, is not mentioned once in the whole GFA. The only mention of the border is with regard to cross-border institutions. As such the GFA explicitly recognises that a border exists but has nothing at all to say about what form it should or should not take. Powell is another fuckwit using the threat of a return to the Troubles as blackmail to argue against Brexit.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
"Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union"
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf
And if it is the case that that sentence means we are unable to leave the EU ever because membership of the EU is defined within the GFA then Lilico is right and the GFA is dead.
The border already exists. The Irish are against harmonising taxes.
On the page everything seems pretty straightforward but it is far more complicated and nuanced.
As a start understanding that there are customs borders not to check that people are compliant but to catch those who are not compliant is a big step forward for you guys.0 -
No it does not, it is a net approval poll not an actual voting intention poll and does not even include a politician from Les RepublicainsSouthamObserver said:
Well, it's a poll that puts Macron head to head against all his rivals. Le Pen would not make the run-off on those numbers.HYUFD said:
It is not an actual head to head poll is itSouthamObserver said:
What I posted looks suspiciously like a poll. It's from July.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls0 -
He's spouting rubbish anyway. The bulk of the Tory vote in that seat are farmers, and they're not solidly Leave. Brexit voters are as likely to be Labour or even Plaid as Tory,SandyRentool said:
When Number One Fanboy calls him 'Bozo' you know BJ is in trouble!HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night0 -
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/11573499267556065340 -
There were suggestion in late April 2017 when polls were recording Tory leads of up to 25% that Labour could fall below 20% and open the way for the LibDems to mount a serious challenge. Of course, it failed to happen.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't remember such talk. The Libdems were never even close to Labour.justin124 said:
But there was quite a lot of talk on this board - and elsewhere - at the beginning of the 2017 campaign of the Libdems overtaking Labour and ending up in second place re - vote share. Admittedly such speculation disappeared within two weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
2017 the Lib Dems got squeezed by Labour as the only opposition to a landslide Tory Brexit.justin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
That's no longer the case. The Tinkerbell effect means the Lib Dems may be squeezing Labour rather than the other way around next time.
Be healthier for the country if the Lib Dems were able to displace the Marxist cabal as the part of the left.0 -
Cleggmania was real and sustained in 2010. The LDs got nearly one million more votes, but in the wrong places!!IanB2 said:
Polls go up and down, and no party can guarantee it can maintain today’s rating tomorrow (except in HYworld).Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed.justin124 said:
Really - what about Cleggmania in the 2010 election when the LibDems led both Labour and the Tories in quite a few polls shortly before Polling Day?HYUFD said:
The Liberals are now polling closer to Labour in most polls than they have been at any time since 1983 when the SDP/Liberal Alliance were just 2% from overtaking Foot's Labour in votesharejustin124 said:
Yougov - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:UK_General_Election_2010_YouGov_Polls_Graph.png
But comparing with Cleggmania - a spurt of a few days following the first national TV debate, which began to unwind quickly thereafter in the face of a major media onslaught (the Daily Mail even comparing Clegg to a Nazi) - is unreasonable.
The longer the LibDems maintain their rating, the more likely it is to endure. Especially as each election passes by and 20%+ of the voters actually cast their votes for the LibDems.
Also worth remembering that prior to 2010, the LibDems polling in the mid teens wasn’t exceptional, but normal.
0 -
The Brexit Party won Powys in the European Parliament elections and would have beaten the Tories last night as they did in Peterborough without Borisydoethur said:
He's spouting rubbish anyway. The bulk of the Tory vote in that seat are farmers, and they're not solidly Leave. Brexit voters are as likely to be Labour or even Plaid as Tory,SandyRentool said:
When Number One Fanboy calls him 'Bozo' you know BJ is in trouble!HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night0 -
No they would not. They had the same chance of coming second as you had of learning to read a map.HYUFD said:
The Brexit Party won Powys in the European Parliament elections and would have beaten the Tories last night as they did in Peterborough without Borisydoethur said:
He's spouting rubbish anyway. The bulk of the Tory vote in that seat are farmers, and they're not solidly Leave. Brexit voters are as likely to be Labour or even Plaid as Tory,SandyRentool said:
When Number One Fanboy calls him 'Bozo' you know BJ is in trouble!HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night
But tell yourself that if you like. It makes no difference to the facts.0 -
So your analysis is that if the rules were different there might have been a different result. Assuming that voters behaved the same way with a different system. It’s not wholly compelling.HYUFD said:
There was no runoff and second round in the USA unlike France and Hillary won the popular vote as Macron did but Trump won most states as Le Pen won most departments and regions and the Electoral CollegePhilip_Thompson said:
So frigging what!?HYUFD said:
Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.rcs1000 said:
Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.HYUFD said:
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
Firstly departments don't matter.
Secondly it only the second round that decides it.
That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.0 -
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/11573499267556065340 -
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.0 -
"Disinterest" ? .... Red card from the JRM word police !eek said:So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.0 -
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.0 -
Quite so. And those in similar situations around the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/11573499267556065340 -
Believe in the dam.ydoethur said:
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.0 -
It's still a poll that is putting Macron head to head with his rivals. The Republicans do not currently have a permanent leader.HYUFD said:
No it does not, it is a net approval poll not an actual voting intention poll and does not even include a politician from Les RepublicainsSouthamObserver said:
Well, it's a poll that puts Macron head to head against all his rivals. Le Pen would not make the run-off on those numbers.HYUFD said:
It is not an actual head to head poll is itSouthamObserver said:
What I posted looks suspiciously like a poll. It's from July.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls
0 -
Worse, “lack of... disinterest”.JackW said:
"Disinterest" ? .... Red card from the JRM word police !eek said:So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
What does that even mean ?
A conflict of interest prevented their legislating ?1 -
Has it occurred to you that people might vote differently in Euro elections? There is a lot of data to support this assertion, if you care to go look.HYUFD said:
The Brexit Party won Powys in the European Parliament elections and would have beaten the Tories last night as they did in Peterborough without Borisydoethur said:
He's spouting rubbish anyway. The bulk of the Tory vote in that seat are farmers, and they're not solidly Leave. Brexit voters are as likely to be Labour or even Plaid as Tory,SandyRentool said:
When Number One Fanboy calls him 'Bozo' you know BJ is in trouble!HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night0 -
“Goner..JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
That’s all.”0 -
JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
Perhaps he could sit on top of the bags of ballast ?0 -
Here's an experience I am sure many of us have had. You join a project half way through. It looks fairly straight forward and it is clear enough what needs to be done. But the people on the project have become obsessed by some issue that while not totally unimportant clearly isn't the major thing that needs to be sorted out. Without knowing the background you are mystified by why it dominates discussion. But nothing you can say will shift the entrenched views of the team members who have been working on it.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night
That's how the Tory Party looks from the outside.
What the hell is so important about the 30th of October? And by Jove's gardener, what on earth makes you think Johnson is the answer?1 -
That's answer #2155 again, isn't it? Is your randomisation circuit playing up?HYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.0 -
Less than two hours since pb's @Ishmael_Z called Boris cloth-eared for skipping Cobra and not visiting the dam. The power of pb.ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/11573499267556065340 -
It will feature in all future propery surveys, mortgage applications, building insurance proposals, and solicitor pre exchange enquiries.ydoethur said:
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.
But preventing the breach is paramount0 -
Utter madnessHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.0 -
Fair comment. Every LibDem I spoke to thought the farmers were staying loyal to Davies, who they saw as one of their own. The lesson for HY is that, despite his ERG membership, Davies rejected no deal. The BXP voters were the pensioners out on the holiday parks.ydoethur said:
He's spouting rubbish anyway. The bulk of the Tory vote in that seat are farmers, and they're not solidly Leave. Brexit voters are as likely to be Labour or even Plaid as Tory,SandyRentool said:
When Number One Fanboy calls him 'Bozo' you know BJ is in trouble!HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night0 -
It is impressively sneaky and causes innumerate problems for Boris.SouthamObserver said:Taking back control, with a Sinn Fein groove. Can you imagine if this happened??
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121
The downside is that brexit will result in a United ireland within 10 years so it’s not going to occur as no deal will give Sinn Fein everything they want.0 -
Yes it was definitely discussed. Labour was in a really bad way at the start of the 2017 campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't remember such talk. The Libdems were never even close to Labour.justin124 said:
But there was quite a lot of talk on this board - and elsewhere - at the beginning of the 2017 campaign of the Libdems overtaking Labour and ending up in second place re - vote share. Admittedly such speculation disappeared within two weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
2017 the Lib Dems got squeezed by Labour as the only opposition to a landslide Tory Brexit.justin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
That's no longer the case. The Tinkerbell effect means the Lib Dems may be squeezing Labour rather than the other way around next time.
Be healthier for the country if the Lib Dems were able to displace the Marxist cabal as the part of the left.0 -
Or act as ballast himself, although the risk of Boris falling in must be balanced against the displacement of water and the subsequent disaster !Nigelb said:JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
Perhaps he could sit on top of the bags of ballast ?0 -
I assume they will drain the reservoir and rebuild the dam. In which case there shouldn't be any impact on property values.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will feature in all future propery surveys, mortgage applications, building insurance proposals, and solicitor pre exchange enquiries.ydoethur said:
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.
But preventing the breach is paramount0 -
If Boris Johnson is there, he's probably asking them at this moment, "How much money do you need? Take as much as you want. Just make sure you tell those gentlemen over there all about it."Dadge said:
I assume they will drain the reservoir and rebuild the dam. In which case there shouldn't be any impact on property values.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will feature in all future propery surveys, mortgage applications, building insurance proposals, and solicitor pre exchange enquiries.ydoethur said:
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.
But preventing the breach is paramount0 -
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.0 -
Given the number of earthen dams if similar age and quality, all of which will potentially need expensive repairs or draining as well he'd be a total fool to...Chris said:
If Boris Johnson is there, he's probably asking them at this moment, "How much money do you need? Take as much as you want. Just make sure you tell those gentlemen over there all about it."Dadge said:
I assume they will drain the reservoir and rebuild the dam. In which case there shouldn't be any impact on property values.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will feature in all future propery surveys, mortgage applications, building insurance proposals, and solicitor pre exchange enquiries.ydoethur said:
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.
But preventing the breach is paramount
You're right, that's what he'll be doing.0 -
William I haven’t waded through the full text but from the way it is written the piece you have quoted looks like it is a recital - ie a statement of fact about the position at the time was drafted combined with the intention of the treaty.williamglenn said:
It says it should take the form of cooperation as members of the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they can't because the existence of a border, hard or soft, is not mentioned once in the whole GFA. The only mention of the border is with regard to cross-border institutions. As such the GFA explicitly recognises that a border exists but has nothing at all to say about what form it should or should not take. Powell is another fuckwit using the threat of a return to the Troubles as blackmail to argue against Brexit.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
"Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union"
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf
It says nothing about the form the cooperation has to take.
(If you were just to delete the words “and as partners in the EU” the meaning would be the same even at the time of drafting)
0 -
I agree but until that is concluded this event will feature in all pre contract and mortgage applications/surveys. This is one subject I have years of experience inDadge said:
I assume they will drain the reservoir and rebuild the dam. In which case there shouldn't be any impact on property values.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will feature in all future propery surveys, mortgage applications, building insurance proposals, and solicitor pre exchange enquiries.ydoethur said:
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.
But preventing the breach is paramount0 -
Very clever stuff. It is amazing how Guinness lubricates the imagination.SouthamObserver said:Taking back control, with a Sinn Fein groove. Can you imagine if this happened??
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.39721210 -
They vote differently if parties take up the message ie Cameron's following through with a manifesto commitment to his promise for a referendum on Leaving the EU in 2015 meant many UKIP Euro election voters still voted Tory in 2015.IanB2 said:
Has it occurred to you that people might vote differently in Euro elections? There is a lot of data to support this assertion, if you care to go look.HYUFD said:
The Brexit Party won Powys in the European Parliament elections and would have beaten the Tories last night as they did in Peterborough without Borisydoethur said:
He's spouting rubbish anyway. The bulk of the Tory vote in that seat are farmers, and they're not solidly Leave. Brexit voters are as likely to be Labour or even Plaid as Tory,SandyRentool said:
When Number One Fanboy calls him 'Bozo' you know BJ is in trouble!HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night
If Boris delivers Brexit Deal or No Deal he will keep the Brexit Party voters he has won back, if Corbyn Labour do not commit to back not only EUref2 but Remain in all circumstances they will continue to lose voters to the LDs0 -
Well, duuh.rottenborough said:
Andrew Lilico, ladies and gentlemen. Will eventually get there. Late, and several years after everybody had carefully explained it to him, but might, eventually, get there.0 -
It is not sinister, just wrong.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
Now 'some of the people' would be reasonable0 -
No, it is not a poll including the first round and head to heads and only the top 2 in the first round go to the runoffSouthamObserver said:
Well, it's a poll that puts Macron head to head against all his rivals. Le Pen would not make the run-off on those numbers.HYUFD said:
It is not an actual head to head poll is itSouthamObserver said:
What I posted looks suspiciously like a poll. It's from July.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls0 -
Truss was on R4 earlier, claiming that the Freeports would reduce prices for UK consumers. But she struggled a bit when presented with the fact the the principal difference with a Freeport is that transit goods can be unloaded and loaded without tariffs, but made little difference for exports and imports.eek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.0 -
He may just buy off the people who are in the news right now?ydoethur said:
Given the number of earthen dams if similar age and quality, all of which will potentially need expensive repairs or draining as well he'd be a total fool to...Chris said:
If Boris Johnson is there, he's probably asking them at this moment, "How much money do you need? Take as much as you want. Just make sure you tell those gentlemen over there all about it."Dadge said:
I assume they will drain the reservoir and rebuild the dam. In which case there shouldn't be any impact on property values.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will feature in all future propery surveys, mortgage applications, building insurance proposals, and solicitor pre exchange enquiries.ydoethur said:
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.
But preventing the breach is paramount
You're right, that's what he'll be doing.0 -
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one1 -
Not withour a Sinn Fein First Minister able to call for a border polleek said:
It is impressively sneaky and causes innumerate problems for Boris.SouthamObserver said:Taking back control, with a Sinn Fein groove. Can you imagine if this happened??
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121
The downside is that brexit will result in a United ireland within 10 years so it’s not going to occur as no deal will give Sinn Fein everything they want.0 -
See the EPL kick off live tonight on Sky and premier league next week
Where has the summer gone-1 -
I'm not sure, but I think that sentence has a quintuple negative. I don't know whether to congratulate you or cry.eek said:So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
1 -
Comres today, if Boris delivers Brexit with No Deal the Tories have a 7% lead over Labour, if Boris extends again beyond October 31st the Tories collapse to 3rd behind the Brexit Party and Labour.Recidivist said:
Here's an experience I am sure many of us have had. You join a project half way through. It looks fairly straight forward and it is clear enough what needs to be done. But the people on the project have become obsessed by some issue that while not totally unimportant clearly isn't the major thing that needs to be sorted out. Without knowing the background you are mystified by why it dominates discussion. But nothing you can say will shift the entrenched views of the team members who have been working on it.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night
That's how the Tory Party looks from the outside.
What the hell is so important about the 30th of October? And by Jove's gardener, what on earth makes you think Johnson is the answer?
https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=200 -
In 24 years time the GCHQ person responsible for the death on the rock will receive the military cross as a bribe to keep him quiet - you really shouldn’t say thing loudly in an airport lounge.
I only say this as he’s annoyingly load and my uncle had great hassle reporting this.0 -
Stop it. I'm trying not to think about September.Big_G_NorthWales said:See the EPL kick off live tonight on Sky and premier league next week
Where has the summer gone0 -
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.HYUFD said:
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.0 -
Much will depend on the nature of the failure. Given the fact they've had trouble with old mineshafts and the dam before, it may be hard to ensure that it is stable in future if similar problems contributed to this failure.Dadge said:
I assume they will drain the reservoir and rebuild the dam. (snip)Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will feature in all future propery surveys, mortgage applications, building insurance proposals, and solicitor pre exchange enquiries.ydoethur said:
Unless it breaches, in a year everyone will have forgotten about it. So I think that is a pessimistic view.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does occur to me that this is a disaster for home owners in the path of a possible breach for not only the devastation it would cause, but their values will have plummeted as well.JackW said:
"High wire over the dam Prime Minister ?!?!"ydoethur said:Just when you think things are as grim as they could be in Derbyshire:
https://www.twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1157349926755606534
But right now, the key thing is to stop a breach. That really would be a disaster.
But preventing the breach is paramount
In addition, the reservoir was built to provide water to the nearby Peak Forest Canal. If traffic on the canal is not as high as it used to be, they might be able without the reservoir (perhaps by pumping up water instead).0 -
Oh you know, it's the month before October 2019. Which is the month before the 1st of Borister, year Zero.ydoethur said:
Stop it. I'm trying not to think about September.Big_G_NorthWales said:See the EPL kick off live tonight on Sky and premier league next week
Where has the summer gone0 -
Eh ? I don't think Javid is considered a traitor within the Tories.TOPPING said:
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.HYUFD said:
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.0 -
-
Here's a thing everybody:
1) what was the date of the day after 31 December 1599 in Scotland?
2) what was the date of the day after 31 December 1599 in England?
0 -
I voted Remain (though would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement of staying in) but I also respect democracy and backed the Withdrawal Agreement and now back No Deal over No Brexit or further extension.TOPPING said:
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.HYUFD said:
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect democracy and opposed both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal0 -
One of my pupils asked me last July when I started looking forward to the Summer Holidays.viewcode said:
Oh you know, it's the month before October 2019. Which is the month before the 1st of Borister, year Zero.ydoethur said:
Stop it. I'm trying not to think about September.Big_G_NorthWales said:See the EPL kick off live tonight on Sky and premier league next week
Where has the summer gone
My reply was, 'September 5th.'0 -
Javid was well known for changing his views because of Cameron. He was always a leaver. Unlike @HYUFD.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I don't think Javid is considered a traitor within the Tories.TOPPING said:
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.HYUFD said:
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.0 -
HYUFD mistakenly believes that everyone who voted Leave supports Leave in any form. Deal or No Deal.
This is of course bollocks, and so undermines the rest of his 'We must No Deal' thesis.0 -
ydoethur said:
One of my pupils asked me last July when I started looking forward to the Summer Holidays.viewcode said:
Oh you know, it's the month before October 2019. Which is the month before the 1st of Borister, year Zero.ydoethur said:
Stop it. I'm trying not to think about September.Big_G_NorthWales said:See the EPL kick off live tonight on Sky and premier league next week
Where has the summer gone
My reply was, 'September 5th.' 0 -
Yes because while I voted leave I want good relationships with the EU. I just don’t see any point bailing out Italy and now Deutsche BankSandyRentool said:HYUFD mistakenly believes that everyone who voted Leave supports Leave in any form. Deal or No Deal.
This is of course bollocks, and so undermines the rest of his 'We must No Deal' thesis.1 -
Six weeks tomorrow my wife and I sail from Southampton on a 24 day round trip cruise to Nova Scotia, New England and New Yorkydoethur said:
Stop it. I'm trying not to think about September.Big_G_NorthWales said:See the EPL kick off live tonight on Sky and premier league next week
Where has the summer gone
So when everything is kicking off in the HOC we will be watching BBC World News on the ocean waves with slow internet access
You may all be pleased that I may not be able to post too frequently !!!!0 -
Nah. You are not to be trusted because you disagree with the central premise of the Conservative party's leave strategy. You simply do. Forget the euro. You fundamentally disagree with the direction of the party you profess to support. And likewise they don't trust or want people like you.HYUFD said:
I voted Remain (though would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement of staying in) but I also respect democracy and backed the Withdrawal Agreement and now back No Deal over No Brexit or further extension.TOPPING said:
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.HYUFD said:
No what iDougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing anto deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So terest.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect democracy and opposed both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal0 -
Whatever you do, don't dress up as a clown!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Six weeks tomorrow my wife and I sail from Southampton on a 24 day round trip cruise to Nova Scotia, New England and New Yorkydoethur said:
Stop it. I'm trying not to think about September.Big_G_NorthWales said:See the EPL kick off live tonight on Sky and premier league next week
Where has the summer gone
So when everything is kicking off in the HOC we will be watching BBC World News on the ocean waves with slow internet access
You may all be pleased that I may not be able to post too frequently !!!!2 -
You reflect my views on HYUFD and those of his persuasion in the party who have been taken over by an extreme view of BrexitTOPPING said:
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.HYUFD said:
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.
Though I would not use traitor, but just he has been captured by the UKIPPERS0 -
“Diehard remainers” “will of the people”. Your constant repetition of stock phrases and buzzwords without regard for context or tone is eerie. Really eerie.HYUFD said:
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one0 -
Also, pathetically saying "I would have voted leave if..." is unbecoming and makes you out to be an unprincipled, quisling dolt. Surely you are better than that? Or perhaps not.HYUFD said:
I voted Remain (though would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement of staying in) but I also respect democracy and backed the Withdrawal Agreement and now back No Deal over No Brexit or further extension.TOPPING said:
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.HYUFD said:
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By reeeek said:
So est.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect democracy and opposed both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal
You are a diehard remainer. Deal with it.0 -
HYUFD said:
Do you respect cheating and fraud?TOPPING said:
I voted Remain (though would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement of staying in) but I also respect democracy and backed the Withdrawal Agreement and now back No Deal over No Brexit or further extension.HYUFD said:@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.
Ugly words but them's the facts.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect democracy and opposed both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal0 -
Did you oppose an extension in March?HYUFD said:
I voted Remain (though would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement of staying in) but I also respect democracy and backed the Withdrawal Agreement and now back No Deal over No Brexit or further extension.TOPPING said:
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the only formal opportunity we were given. You disagree with the extreme types of Brexit as evidenced by that vote. You are not to be trusted in today's Conservative party. In fact you are what many in the Conservative party would call a traitor.HYUFD said:
No what is 'sinister' is the contempt of diehard Remainers for democracy, refusing to back the Withdrawal Agreement and refusing to back No Deal and refusing to respect the largest vote in post war British history.DougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect democracy and opposed both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal0 -
The vast majority of Leave voters as every poll shows want Brexit with a Deal or No Deal on October 32st, diehard Remainers refuse to deliver eitherSandyRentool said:HYUFD mistakenly believes that everyone who voted Leave supports Leave in any form. Deal or No Deal.
This is of course bollocks, and so undermines the rest of his 'We must No Deal' thesis.0 -
You are a diehard remainer. The sooner you realise that the party you once supported no longer wants you the better.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Leave voters as every poll shows want Brexit with a Deal or No Deal on October 32st, diehard Remainers refuse to deliver eitherSandyRentool said:HYUFD mistakenly believes that everyone who voted Leave supports Leave in any form. Deal or No Deal.
This is of course bollocks, and so undermines the rest of his 'We must No Deal' thesis.0 -
Utter crap.TOPPING said:
Nah. You are not to be trusted because you disagree with the central premise of the Conservative party's leave strategy. You simply do. Forget the euro. You fundamentally disagree with the direction of the party you profess to support. And likewise they don't trust or want people like you.HYUFD said:
I voted Remain (though would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement of staying in) but I also respect democracy and backed the Withdrawal Agreement and now back No Deal over No Brexit or further extension.TOPPING said:
@HYUFD don't forget that you are a diehard remainer. You voted remain at the raitor.HYUFD said:
No what iDougSeal said:
Your constant repetition of “will of the people” is seriously sinisterHYUFD said:
By refusing anto deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So terest.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It cion.justin124 said:
It clearly refpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
You thus wanted a war with Leavers, you have now got one
Ugly words but them's the facts.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect democracy and opposed both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal
Remainers who voted for the Withdrawal Agreement are welcome, Remainers who back No Deal are welcome in the Tory Party (unlike the Brexit Party the Tories would still do a Deal with the EU without the backstop), Remainers who refused to back either are now better off in the LDs0 -
I have been on 12 or so cruises around the World, mainly with Princess cruises and I can honestly say I have never seen any form of unacceptable behaviour. I am also familar with the Horizon Restaurants and it just seems crazy that there could be a disturbance of any kind, clowns or otherwiseSandyRentool said:
Whatever you do, don't dress up as a clown!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Six weeks tomorrow my wife and I sail from Southampton on a 24 day round trip cruise to Nova Scotia, New England and New Yorkydoethur said:
Stop it. I'm trying not to think about September.Big_G_NorthWales said:See the EPL kick off live tonight on Sky and premier league next week
Where has the summer gone
So when everything is kicking off in the HOC we will be watching BBC World News on the ocean waves with slow internet access
You may all be pleased that I may not be able to post too frequently !!!!0 -
Dominic Grieve is a diehard Remainer, Sam Gyimah is a diehard Remainer, Justine Greening is a diehard Remainer, Philip Lee is a diehard Remainer, all now belong in the LDs not the Tories.TOPPING said:
You are a diehard remainer. The sooner you realise that the party you once supported no longer wants you the better.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Leave voters as every poll shows want Brexit with a Deal or No Deal on October 32st, diehard Remainers refuse to deliver eitherSandyRentool said:HYUFD mistakenly believes that everyone who voted Leave supports Leave in any form. Deal or No Deal.
This is of course bollocks, and so undermines the rest of his 'We must No Deal' thesis.
I am not a diehard Remainer, I back Brexit Deal or No Deal and am still a Tory0
