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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Despite the dire polling, Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere

Barring accident or illness the Labour leader is certain to lead the party into the next election and is very likely to stay whatever the result may be

Read the full story here

SquareRoot

first

nichomar

Piddock and Long Bailey is that the best on offer? They come over as rather limited in intelligence and not very World wise.

SandyRentool

RLB v Thornberry v Starmer

RLB ahead on 1st preferences, but loses in the run-off?

DecrepitJohnL

Boris needs to leave the EU on time but with a deal because if the no deal planning is right or even half-right, the Tories will be blamed and Corbyn will be prime minister.

As previously stated, I think there is a clear path to a deal. But who can tell what Boris thinks he is up to?

Slackbladder

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris needs to leave the EU on time but with a deal because if the no deal planning is right or even half-right, the Tories will be blamed and Corbyn will be prime minister.

As previously stated, I think there is a clear path to a deal. But who can tell what Boris thinks he is up to?

Boris can get a deal tomorrow. It's called the Withdrawal Agreement. How it can get it through parliment when May failed to is another matter.

DecrepitJohnL

nichomar said:

Piddock and Long Bailey is that the best on offer? They come over as rather limited in intelligence and not very World wise.

Neither of them went to Eton, it is true, but perhaps, as Michael Gove says, we have had enough of experts. The appointment of Dominic Raab as Foreign Secretary suggests Boris certainly has.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Labour's triumph in beating those electoral titans UKIP and the Monster Raving Loony Party shows that Chairman Corbyn is on the path to victory!

Barnesian

FPT

Slackbladder said:

Tissue_Price said:

148grss said:

Endillion said:

beentheredonethat said:

The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.

Alternatively:
- The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and
- Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.

Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?

There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:

Isle of Wight
Sheffield Central
The three Brighton seats
Skipton & Ripon
Edinburgh North

Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.

More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.

Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...

There is no such thing as "The Great British Public". If there were, it would look dimly at the way Johnson was elected PM by a tiny unrepresentative political pressure group. Not very democratic is it?

However- looking at the practicalities of s deal between LibDems and the Greens,- I have used Flavible to reduce the LibDem share and increase the Green share until Green seats come into play. The top seven are:

Brighton Pavillion
Isle of Wight
Glasgow North (Edinburgh North just misses the cut)
Putney
Wimbledon
Kensington
Cities of London and Westminster

Cyclefree

At this rate, will there even be a Labour party worth leading in 5 years?

Good article. Thank you @SouthamObserver.

SandyRentool

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Labour's triumph in beating those electoral titans UKIP and the Monster Raving Loony Party shows that Chairman Corbyn is on the path to victory!

Point of pedantry: Ian Lavery is the party chairman.

kle4

He could be the most unpopular person to become PM?

Benpointer

Slackbladder said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris needs to leave the EU on time but with a deal because if the no deal planning is right or even half-right, the Tories will be blamed and Corbyn will be prime minister.

As previously stated, I think there is a clear path to a deal. But who can tell what Boris thinks he is up to?

Boris can get a deal tomorrow. It's called the Withdrawal Agreement. How it can get it through parliment when May failed to is another matter.

He could get it through parliament if he said that if the HoC fails to pass it he will immediately Revoke.

IanB2

ConHome is remarkably silent today, but here’s the conclusion on LabourList:

“The most worrying thing about this by-election? It has increased the chances of both Remain and Leave alliances in an early election, which could see Labour squeezed out and made irrelevant as they were last night. And there’s not much the party can do about that possibility. Labour will just have to hope that it can shift the broader narrative, rather than ignore it, and that the ever-more-likely snap poll isn’t fought entirely on Brexit.”

DecrepitJohnL

Slackbladder said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris needs to leave the EU on time but with a deal because if the no deal planning is right or even half-right, the Tories will be blamed and Corbyn will be prime minister.

As previously stated, I think there is a clear path to a deal. But who can tell what Boris thinks he is up to?

Boris can get a deal tomorrow. It's called the Withdrawal Agreement. How it can get it through parliment when May failed to is another matter.

Massively extend the transition period to kick the backstop into the long grass, with the political cover that this is to enable a technical solution to be developed. So no hard Irish border for Ireland and the GFA; no Irish Sea border for the DUP; no backstop for the ERG and it is only BINO for the Remoaners. Boris can drop May's FoM red lines since he does not believe in them anyway, for the EU27.

Now yes, headbangers on all sides could dream up new objections, but that will take care of most of their old ones, and Boris's GATT ramblings ("but what about paragraph c?") suggest this is the path he is exploring.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rentool, yes, comrade, but Supreme Chairman Leader Comrade President Corbyn is the People's Chairman.

Tremble at his earth-shattering popularity, lesser politicians!

DecrepitJohnL

When are we expecting Theresa May's resignation honours list, btw?

Slackbladder

Benpointer said:

Slackbladder said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris needs to leave the EU on time but with a deal because if the no deal planning is right or even half-right, the Tories will be blamed and Corbyn will be prime minister.

As previously stated, I think there is a clear path to a deal. But who can tell what Boris thinks he is up to?

Boris can get a deal tomorrow. It's called the Withdrawal Agreement. How it can get it through parliment when May failed to is another matter.

He could get it through parliament if he said that if the HoC fails to pass it he will immediately Revoke.

yeah good luck with that. Half his cabinet would resign, and a good risk that the ERG would split into their own party.

Not going to happen...

RochdalePioneers

Laura Pillock? Leader?

Jesus, shoot me now

RochdalePioneers

nichomar said:

Piddock and Long Bailey is that the best on offer? They come over as rather limited in intelligence and not very World wise.

Pillock is excretingly awful. Raynor has an authentic back story but doesn't have any political umph. RLB is an empty shirt. None of these please

Stereotomy

Strange that we don't get any threads from Mike hailing Corbyn as "the great survivor" like we did with May.

El_Capitano

RochdalePioneers said:

Laura Pillock? Leader?

Jesus, shoot me now

Rather Pillock than Rebecca Wrong-Daily.

rkrkrk

For those who agree with this analysis, you can get better than evens on Corbyn making it until July 2020 as leader on Betfair.

Personally I think Corbyn goes if he does badly in the next election, which looks likely to be soon.

The_Taxman

Excellent result in B & R for the "Remain Alliance"!

SouthamObserver

RochdalePioneers said:

Laura Pillock? Leader?

Jesus, shoot me now

Pidcock is the Momentum candidate; Long Bailey is McDonnell’s. It’ll be one of the two as the far-left candidate when the distant day Corbyn finally bows out arrives. Neither is anything but awful though, I agree. If I had to choose, I’d say Pidcock is worse because she’s also a phoney. She’s got the Geordie equivalent of a mockney accent.

Endillion

Barnesian said:

FPT

Slackbladder said:

Tissue_Price said:

148grss said:

Endillion said:

beentheredonethat said:

The real winners of this by election were the greens and BXP. The greens will, rightly, demand 5-10 open goal seats as the price of continuing the alliance otherwise their voters will not back the LDs in winnable seats. BXP have shown they can destroy the tories chances without a similar deal. BXP voters will only support the tories with the word from Nigel Farage and he has no reason whatsoever to back the tories without a quid pro quo which will give his party a seat at the post election negotiations. He, rightly, does not trust Johnson not to sell out. A coupon election beckons.

Alternatively:
- The Greens have demonstrated categorically that, when they do stand, they act as an impediment to their stated objectives by splitting the left wing vote and letting the Tories in; and
- Voters should now be clear that voting Brexit Party splits the right wing vote and lets Remainers in.

Also, where are these magical 5 - 10 open goal seats for the Greens if only the LDs stand down (that aren't already held by LDs)?

There's no open goals. But the Greens might settle for some of:

Isle of Wight
Sheffield Central
The three Brighton seats
Skipton & Ripon
Edinburgh North

Bristol West would be a stretch, given the LD's own history there.

More generally, I wonder whether some sort of internal auction system could be set up between the parties' respective staff, whereby the LDs would pick e.g. 4 seats, then the Greens 1, and repeat, with some sort of veto procedure included. The overall outcome would then have to be put to the relevant Executive bodies.

Anyone get the feeling that the Great British Public might start to look dimmily on that kind of horse trading of seats. Not very democratic is it...

There is no such thing as "The Great British Public". If there were, it would look dimly at the way Johnson was elected PM by a tiny unrepresentative political pressure group. Not very democratic is it?

However- looking at the practicalities of s deal between LibDems and the Greens,- I have used Flavible to reduce the LibDem share and increase the Green share until Green seats come into play. The top seven are:

Brighton Pavillion
Isle of Wight
Glasgow North (Edinburgh North just misses the cut)
Putney
Wimbledon
Kensington
Cities of London and Westminster

This is totally useful, if you think voters are chessboard pieces.

MarqueeMark

Stereotomy said:

Strange that we don't get any threads from Mike hailing Corbyn as "the great survivor" like we did with May.

That might be something to do with the oft-touted notion here that May was safe as houses until December this year.

Ooooops!

IanB2

The key takeaway from the lead is the long-term nature of the task of getting a replacement for Corbyn in place who is both left wing and female.

Meanwhile those driven away from the Tories’ no deal fetish won’t be looking toward Labour anyway.

It seems more and more obvious that the viable future for Labour is as a Melenchon style left wing party within a more pluralistic political environment.

Yet the party clings to the delusion that it can be both left wing and secure a majority under the current system, by ducking a clear position on any issue where the interests of its diverse constituencies (crudely, the working class, Asian voters, and educated social liberals) cannot be reconciled.

Instead of a one-job government to put an end to Brexit, a brave strategy would be a cross-party two-job government to both end Brexit and push through political reform.

SandyRentool

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Laura Pillock? Leader?

Jesus, shoot me now

Pidcock is the Momentum candidate; Long Bailey is McDonnell’s. It’ll be one of the two as the far-left candidate when the distant day Corbyn finally bows out arrives. Neither is anything but awful though, I agree. If I had to choose, I’d say Pidcock is worse because she’s also a phoney. She’s got the Geordie equivalent of a mockney accent.

Pidcock is a Geordie. I don't have any problem with how she talks.

The words, yes. The accent, no.

Pulpstar

My favourite long term market. Corbyn seems in decent enough health so this one could run and run and run

Lay the favourite (It constantly changes happily enough) - currently that's Keir Starmer.

nichomar

It’s worth looking at where most of the first fifty TBP candidates are targeted with many in the north although not exclusively. Does this shoot down the Tory’s winning these seats down somewhat and actually could help labour.

Byronic

Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

Nigelb

Aussies complaining about the shape of the ball.


Does it have some rough edges which need sanding down ?

Philip_Thompson

Byronic said:

Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.

Pulpstar

nichomar said:

It’s worth looking at where most of the first fifty TBP candidates are targeted with many in the north although not exclusively. Does this shoot down the Tory’s winning these seats down somewhat and actually could help labour.

We need a by-election in somewhere like Pontefract, Bolsover or Barnsley now I think to assess how the "old labour" vote is doing (The Peterborough labour vote was a bit more cosmopolitan)

Byronic

Philip_Thompson said:

Byronic said:

Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.

It is still not likely, but it is now closer to happening than at any time since the 1930s.

And, of course, it has already happened in Scotland.

Yorkcity

Charles on PB a month or so back , said he heard from sources Corbyn was ill.
Do not know how good the information was.
Hope it is incorrect.
However if correct could change things.

kinabalu

Header is spot on, IMO, except for one point. If Labour lose the next election badly under Corbyn, he goes.

But, yes, health permitting he gets to fight it. That is close to certain.

So, on the betting, the lay at 3.5 that he is out this year is value. I have some of that. Even if there IS an Oct election and he DOES lose big, it will probably take into 2020 to replace him.

That said, I believe an election before Brexit is delivered (this year, next year, whenever) is his best and probably only chance to become PM.

Reason being, he needs Remainer tactical voting (against Hard Brexit) in order to achieve a minority Labour government. I do not think there is sufficient genuine support for his redistributive agenda in this country to win under any other circumstances. Therefore, if the GE comes post Brexit, he loses to Johnson.

I say this with no glee, since I support Labour's policy direction under him. It's why I joined the party last summer.

RochdalePioneers

Its a great piece Joff, and sadly leaves me asking the same daily question:

1) Why am I still in the Labour Party as what's the point, and
2) If I left, what is the alternative?

I absolutely define myself by Clause 4 of the Party Constitution. Namely:

"The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect"

The problem is that the Labour Party is increasingly none of those things.

JackW

Thanks @SouthamObserver for your analysis.

I always titter at that James Bond 007 Corbyn picture. But Miss Moneypenny-Abbott is not to be seen ....

Byronic

Yorkcity said:

Charles on PB a month or so back , said he heard from sources Corbyn was ill.
Do not know how good the information was.
Hope it is incorrect.
However if correct could change things.

I have heard the same. Corbyn has got a hard and thankless job, with enormous stress, and he no longer has the adoration of the masses to give him a boost. He knows even the membership have doubts, and lots of them hate him, because Brexit.

He's a 70 year old man. I simply don't believe he can endure another 5 years of this. Especially after a big, humiliating defeat (if it happens). He will tell Milne and McDonnell to do one, and he will quit. And retire to become an elder statesman with an allotment.

eek

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1157287045401841665

MarqueeMark

Yorkcity said:

Charles on PB a month or so back , said he heard from sources Corbyn was ill.
Do not know how good the information was.
Hope it is incorrect.
However if correct could change things.

Flip side to that is that my business partner shares the same fitness instructor as Corbyn. Who tells my chum that Corbyn is fitter than him, despite being 10 years older. Which really annoys my chum, who trains three times a week with him.

RochdalePioneers

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Laura Pillock? Leader?

Jesus, shoot me now

Pidcock is the Momentum candidate; Long Bailey is McDonnell’s. It’ll be one of the two as the far-left candidate when the distant day Corbyn finally bows out arrives. Neither is anything but awful though, I agree. If I had to choose, I’d say Pidcock is worse because she’s also a phoney. She’s got the Geordie equivalent of a mockney accent.

Pillock is genuinely awful. Utterly Godawful nasty charlatan of a person.

Pulpstar

kinabalu said:

Header is spot on, IMO, except for one point. If Labour lose the next election badly under Corbyn, he goes.

But, yes, health permitting he gets to fight it. That is close to certain.

So, on the betting, the lay at 3.5 that he is out this year is value. I have some of that. Even if there IS an Oct election and he DOES lose big, it will probably take into 2020 to replace him.

That said, I believe an election before Brexit is delivered (this year, next year, whenever) is his best and probably only chance to become PM.

Reason being, he needs Remainer tactical voting (against Hard Brexit) in order to achieve a minority Labour government. I do not think there is sufficient genuine support for his redistributive agenda in this country to win under any other circumstances. Therefore, if the GE comes post Brexit, he loses to Johnson.

I say this with no glee, since I support Labour's policy direction under him. It's why I joined the party last summer.

Thanks for the tip, it'll be 4.125 odds for me after PC but worth a lay I think. Of course if it loses then my next Labour leader market profits can be realised...

algarkirk

Philip_Thompson said:

Byronic said:

Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.

Being led by Laura Pidcock would speed it up a bit, though Pidcock v Boris PMQs would soon be outlawed as a cruel and unfair sport. BTW Dawn Butler should be added to the list of potential Labour leaders who are in the Richard Burgon/Ian Lavery category when it comes to cognitive aptitude.

Wondering what the shades of Roy Jenkins and Dennis Healey are making of all this.

justin124

Yorkcity said:

Charles on PB a month or so back , said he heard from sources Corbyn was ill.
Do not know how good the information was.
Hope it is incorrect.
However if correct could change things.

That was early May.

Byronic

MarqueeMark said:

Yorkcity said:

Charles on PB a month or so back , said he heard from sources Corbyn was ill.
Do not know how good the information was.
Hope it is incorrect.
However if correct could change things.

Flip side to that is that my business partner shares the same fitness instructor as Corbyn. Who tells my chum that Corbyn is fitter than him, despite being 10 years older. Which really annoys my chum, who trains three times a week with him.

I don't think it's his general fitness which is at issue. He's quite spry for his age.

It's things like this:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-corbyn-admits-he-is-being-treated-for-eye-condition-th5dhlpcd

TheValiant

Edit - misread!

MarqueeMark

Byronic said:

MarqueeMark said:

Yorkcity said:

Charles on PB a month or so back , said he heard from sources Corbyn was ill.
Do not know how good the information was.
Hope it is incorrect.
However if correct could change things.

Flip side to that is that my business partner shares the same fitness instructor as Corbyn. Who tells my chum that Corbyn is fitter than him, despite being 10 years older. Which really annoys my chum, who trains three times a week with him.

I don't think it's his general fitness which is at issue. He's quite spry for his age.

It's things like this:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-corbyn-admits-he-is-being-treated-for-eye-condition-th5dhlpcd

Is that the eye condition that stops him seeing any anti-semitism in the Labour Party?

viewcode

IanB2 said:

ConHome is remarkably silent today, but here’s the conclusion on LabourList:

“The most worrying thing about this by-election? It has increased the chances of both Remain and Leave alliances in an early election, which could see Labour squeezed out and made irrelevant as they were last night. And there’s not much the party can do about that possibility. Labour will just have to hope that it can shift the broader narrative, rather than ignore it, and that the ever-more-likely snap poll isn’t fought entirely on Brexit.”

"Provided our enemy fights on the ground that we want, we shall be victorious!"

[Facepalm]

IanB2

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

ConHome is remarkably silent today, but here’s the conclusion on LabourList:

“The most worrying thing about this by-election? It has increased the chances of both Remain and Leave alliances in an early election, which could see Labour squeezed out and made irrelevant as they were last night. And there’s not much the party can do about that possibility. Labour will just have to hope that it can shift the broader narrative, rather than ignore it, and that the ever-more-likely snap poll isn’t fought entirely on Brexit.”

"Provided our enemy fights on the ground that we want, we shall be victorious!"

[Facepalm]

It generally worked for Wellington

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, I see Nigel Farage is intent upon becoming the Ralph Nader of British politics.

Edited extra bit: hope I got the name right.

kinabalu

Pulpstar said:

Thanks for the tip, it'll be 4.125 odds for me after PC but worth a lay I think. Of course if it loses then my next Labour leader market profits can be realised...

I've got tons locked up in that market too.

And your long 'sleepy' short 'kamala' position looks less sickly now, I would imagine.

viewcode

IanB2 said:

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

ConHome is remarkably silent today, but here’s the conclusion on LabourList:

“The most worrying thing about this by-election? It has increased the chances of both Remain and Leave alliances in an early election, which could see Labour squeezed out and made irrelevant as they were last night. And there’s not much the party can do about that possibility. Labour will just have to hope that it can shift the broader narrative, rather than ignore it, and that the ever-more-likely snap poll isn’t fought entirely on Brexit.”

"Provided our enemy fights on the ground that we want, we shall be victorious!"

[Facepalm]

It generally worked for Wellington

"Corbyn, I knew Wellington. Wellington was a friend of mine. You, Corbyn, are no Arthur Wellington... "

Nigel_Foremain

nichomar said:

Piddock and Long Bailey is that the best on offer? They come over as rather limited in intelligence and not very World wise.

They therefore both sound worthy heirs to Corbyn. Mr Thicky will be replaced by Ms Thicky!

IanB2

Incidentally another of the Indy MPs was in Brecon giving the LibDems a hand: Angela Smith.

Pulpstar

I note Harris is now out (rightfully) past Warren and Biden in the Dem nominee betting. How long do we have to wait for Harris-Bernie crossover ?

Nigel_Foremain

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

Pulpstar

kinabalu said:

Pulpstar said:

Thanks for the tip, it'll be 4.125 odds for me after PC but worth a lay I think. Of course if it loses then my next Labour leader market profits can be realised...

I've got tons locked up in that market too.

And your long 'sleepy' short 'kamala' position looks less sickly now, I would imagine.

Long sleepy, long 1/2020th, long Bernie, short "Pot cop" Harris - yes it is looking better now thanks. I still think her odds are too short though.

Dura_Ace

JackW said:

Thanks @SouthamObserver for your analysis.

I always titter at that James Bond 007 Corbyn picture. But Miss Moneypenny-Abbott is not to be seen ....

Bond is more like Boris in that the ovwhelmingly dominant component of their psychological makeup is that they both loathe women.

Tabman

JackW said:

Thanks @SouthamObserver for your analysis.

I always titter at that James Bond 007 Corbyn picture. But Miss Moneypenny-Abbott is not to be seen ....

Jack i know the wireless signal in the Highlands is patchy, but that's the rapper look 🙂

Pulpstar

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

El_Capitano

Good piece. My takeaway:

FPTP makes multi-party coalitions difficult. The junior partner is obliterated, as we saw with Cameron/Clegg. So there will be no multi-party coalitions any time soon - not Lab/LD, not Con/Brexit. (The possible exception is where one party is dominant in a region, a la SNP.)

Historically the only parties capable of winning power are those which are already internal coalitions. Cameron before he blew it, Blair, Thatcher etc.

@SouthamObserver’s piece demonstrates that Labour is not going to return to that for many years. ABDPJohnson’s hard Brexit Cabinet shows that the Conservatives, too, have abandoned the logic of the internal coalition, which even May tried to preserve.

There is one inescapable conclusion from this, which is that sane social democrats like @RochdalePioneers need to join the party formed as an internal coalition between social democrats and liberals.

But then I would say that.

Nigel_Foremain

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

I wonder whether there will be any others?

justin124

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.

Nigel_Foremain

El_Capitano said:

Good piece. My takeaway:

FPTP makes multi-party coalitions difficult. The junior partner is obliterated, as we saw with Cameron/Clegg. So there will be no multi-party coalitions any time soon - not Lab/LD, not Con/Brexit. (The possible exception is where one party is dominant in a region, a la SNP.)

Historically the only parties capable of winning power are those which are already internal coalitions. Cameron before he blew it, Blair, Thatcher etc.

@SouthamObserver’s piece demonstrates that Labour is not going to return to that for many years. ABDPJohnson’s hard Brexit Cabinet shows that the Conservatives, too, have abandoned the logic of the internal coalition, which even May tried to preserve.

There is one inescapable conclusion from this, which is that sane social democrats like @RochdalePioneers need to join the party formed as an internal coalition between social democrats and liberals.

But then I would say that.

I don't think I will join the LDs, but I will lend them my vote until sanity is restored to the Conservative Party (not happening soon!). Interesting to know whether Labour or Conservatives have the "softer" moderate supporters, and in what quantity

Richard_Tyndall

RochdalePioneers said:

Its a great piece Joff, and sadly leaves me asking the same daily question:

1) Why am I still in the Labour Party as what's the point, and
2) If I left, what is the alternative?

I absolutely define myself by Clause 4 of the Party Constitution. Namely:

"The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect"

The problem is that the Labour Party is increasingly none of those things.

Whilst obviously I disagree with your political viewpoint, setting that aside and looking seriously at your situation and that of probably tens of thousands of other Labour members, why do the Lib Dems not meet your standards for achieving your political aims? I have long regarded them as being at least as left wing as Labour and I would have thought they could certainly replace Labour as the main party of the left were Corbyn to persist in his refusal to listen to his members. I am surprised we have not seem much larger wholesale defections to the Lib Dems.

dixiedean

I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

beentheredonethat

Richard_Tyndall said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Its a great piece Joff, and sadly leaves me asking the same daily question:

1) Why am I still in the Labour Party as what's the point, and
2) If I left, what is the alternative?

I absolutely define myself by Clause 4 of the Party Constitution. Namely:

"The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect"

The problem is that the Labour Party is increasingly none of those things.

Whilst obviously I disagree with your political viewpoint, setting that aside and looking seriously at your situation and that of probably tens of thousands of other Labour members, why do the Lib Dems not meet your standards for achieving your political aims? I have long regarded them as being at least as left wing as Labour and I would have thought they could certainly replace Labour as the main party of the left were Corbyn to persist in his refusal to listen to his members. I am surprised we have not seem much larger wholesale defections to the Lib Dems.

Cameron?

Pulpstar

Nigel_Foremain said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

I wonder whether there will be any others?

I still think the Lib Dems is a tricky place for centre-right remainers to be content , and Change UK also looks a bit weird with Gapes and Soubry in there. So perhaps just Lee, maybe Grieve but it is a big big step for him.
I note Osborne has decided to hitch to the good ship Boris for the moment...

Philip_Thompson

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.

What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.

nichomar

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

ConHome is remarkably silent today, but here’s the conclusion on LabourList:

“The most worrying thing about this by-election? It has increased the chances of both Remain and Leave alliances in an early election, which could see Labour squeezed out and made irrelevant as they were last night. And there’s not much the party can do about that possibility. Labour will just have to hope that it can shift the broader narrative, rather than ignore it, and that the ever-more-likely snap poll isn’t fought entirely on Brexit.”

"Provided our enemy fights on the ground that we want, we shall be victorious!"

[Facepalm]

It generally worked for Wellington

"Corbyn, I knew Wellington. Wellington was a friend of mine. You, Corbyn, are no Arthur Wellington... "

A veggie Wellington?

JBriskinindyref2

I'd always assumed SpaJW was Jack W's twitter.

Must admit - this Laura Pidcock chapess has rather passed me by.

Tabman

dixiedean said:

I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

I don't know piddock, but long_bailey just doesn't perform well. Nothing to do with her accent; everything to do with her inability to master a brief

Pulpstar

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.

What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.

Hermon is probably the most pro-deal MP in the whole of the HoC and the sort of MP we'd have far more of if we used say STV..............

AndyJS

https://twitter.com/frankfieldteam/status/1157244898803892226

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1157298031219347456

rottenborough

Excellent header Mr Wild.

If utterly depressing for moderate voters.

justin124

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.

What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.

Gutto Bebb more likely than Grieve. Hermon voted with May in January - but probably less likely to support Johnson.

Nigel_Foremain

dixiedean said:

I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

You may have a point, but being a solicitor or having an MSc is not necessarily an indication of having high intellect, any more than not having such qualifications is an indicator of the opposite.

Political intelligence is indicated not by having a "private school accent" (whatever that is), but in degree of articulation of thought, and general maturity. there are plenty of people in the trade union movement who have strong accents and come over as highly intelligent. These two women seem to somewhat lacking in that department when I have seen them.

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

I wonder whether there will be any others?

I still think the Lib Dems is a tricky place for centre-right remainers to be content , and Change UK also looks a bit weird with Gapes and Soubry in there. So perhaps just Lee, maybe Grieve but it is a big big step for him.
I note Osborne has decided to hitch to the good ship Boris for the moment...

Only until he is either made head of IMF or not.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.

What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.

Hermon voted with May on VONC, but is strongly opposed to no deal so not a given by any means.

williamglenn

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/frankfieldteam/status/1157244898803892226

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

If they actually win, I can imagine Farage saying, "This is not just about Britain anymore. It's about the whole of Europe. We're going to work with like-minded countries to free the continent from the shackles of the EU. We're going to escape the trap set by Theresa May by revoking Article 50 so we can turn the tables on the Brussels bullies."

This is about as likely as Labour losing Birkenhead.

Hmm...

rottenborough

Richard_Tyndall said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Its a great piece Joff, and sadly leaves me asking the same daily question:

1) Why am I still in the Labour Party as what's the point, and
2) If I left, what is the alternative?

I absolutely define myself by Clause 4 of the Party Constitution. Namely:

"The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect"

The problem is that the Labour Party is increasingly none of those things.

Whilst obviously I disagree with your political viewpoint, setting that aside and looking seriously at your situation and that of probably tens of thousands of other Labour members, why do the Lib Dems not meet your standards for achieving your political aims? I have long regarded them as being at least as left wing as Labour and I would have thought they could certainly replace Labour as the main party of the left were Corbyn to persist in his refusal to listen to his members. I am surprised we have not seem much larger wholesale defections to the Lib Dems.

The intensity of the sense of being in the Labour family is very strong it seems to me. It is very hard to leave.

SirNorfolkPassmore

dixiedean said:

I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.

Yes, it's appalling prejudice. For example, Jeremy Corbyn sounds like he went to a private school, actually went to a private school, and is thick as mince. Which goes to show that you never can tell.

dixiedean

Tabman said:

dixiedean said:

I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

I don't know piddock, but long_bailey just doesn't perform well. Nothing to do with her accent; everything to do with her inability to master a brief

I actually agree she ain't impressive, but she isn't stupid, and does know about life. It does irk when we have people who actually have come through the state system, and in Long-Bailey's case have worked a string of relatively ordinary jobs in the real world, in order to fund her own education, then get slated for it. It actually shows some bloody enterprise.
Then people will moan about the enormous number of private school to Oxbridge to job in politics, MPs we have.

Nigel_Foremain

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

I wonder whether there will be any others?

I still think the Lib Dems is a tricky place for centre-right remainers to be content , and Change UK also looks a bit weird with Gapes and Soubry in there. So perhaps just Lee, maybe Grieve but it is a big big step for him.
I note Osborne has decided to hitch to the good ship Boris for the moment...

Having been a Conservative activist (before the Brexit madness took hold), it is fair to say that in many shires the LibDems are the enemy, more so, and more hated than Labour. I never felt that way, but many of my more moderate Conservative friends have said they could never vote LD (they think I am an oddity), so It is fair to say that for an MP to defect to the LDs would be a very big step indeed.

Big_G_NorthWales

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.

What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.

Gutto Bebb more likely than Grieve. Hermon voted with May in January - but probably less likely to support Johnson.

I think you need to be more concerned over how many labour mps are willing to commit 'hari kari' by supporting a vonc

TheScreamingEagles

dixiedean said:

I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

Nah, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg went to the supposedly finest school in the world and lack intelligence when it comes to, inter alia, No Deal Brexit.

nichomar

dixiedean said:

I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

Not at all, they just have never impressed me in interviews as they use stock phrases from the labour handbook and do not appear spontaneous in their thinking. I grew up in liverpool and have no accent prejudice except when I think the accent is affected.

SouthamObserver

RochdalePioneers said:

Its a great piece Joff, and sadly leaves me asking the same daily question:

1) Why am I still in the Labour Party as what's the point, and
2) If I left, what is the alternative?

I absolutely define myself by Clause 4 of the Party Constitution. Namely:

"The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect"

The problem is that the Labour Party is increasingly none of those things.

Thanks!!

Labour’s Clause 4 - all of it - is absolutely what I believe in. It’s only a matter of time before the far left rewrites it, though.

Chris

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, I see Nigel Farage is intent upon becoming the Ralph Nader of British politics.

Edited extra bit: hope I got the name right.

Nige Nadir?

beentheredonethat

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1157298031219347456

This!!

SirNorfolkPassmore

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.

What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.

Gutto Bebb more likely than Grieve. Hermon voted with May in January - but probably less likely to support Johnson.

I think you need to be more concerned over how many labour mps are willing to commit 'hari kari' by supporting a vonc

Three independents, elected as Labour, abstained on the last VONC. But you can guarantee all Labour MPs in receipt of the whip would back a VONC even if they harboured private doubts - sacking offence not to do so.

rottenborough

Some good news in the gloom:

https://twitter.com/SFFakeNews/status/1157267260970622979

dixiedean

Nigel_Foremain said:

dixiedean said:

I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

You may have a point, but being a solicitor or having an MSc is not necessarily an indication of having high intellect, any more than not having such qualifications is an indicator of the opposite.

Political intelligence is indicated not by having a "private school accent" (whatever that is), but in degree of articulation of thought, and general maturity. there are plenty of people in the trade union movement who have strong accents and come over as highly intelligent. These two women seem to somewhat lacking in that department when I have seen them.

I kind of agree. But we need more diversity in politics. And that is not only about gender, skin colour or sexuality. There are plenty of privately educated Oxbridge types who are not blessed with any political nous. And know far, far less about the lives of their constituents.

rottenborough

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Its a great piece Joff, and sadly leaves me asking the same daily question:

1) Why am I still in the Labour Party as what's the point, and
2) If I left, what is the alternative?

I absolutely define myself by Clause 4 of the Party Constitution. Namely:

"The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect"

The problem is that the Labour Party is increasingly none of those things.

Thanks!!

Labour’s Clause 4 - all of it - is absolutely what I believe in. It’s only a matter of time before the far left rewrites it, though.

Well, they will certainly need to get rid of the bit about respect.

TheScreamingEagles

I might do a thread on AV this weekend.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1157301363837194241

Big_G_NorthWales

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.

Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.

What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.

Gutto Bebb more likely than Grieve. Hermon voted with May in January - but probably less likely to support Johnson.

I think you need to be more concerned over how many labour mps are willing to commit 'hari kari' by supporting a vonc

Three independents, elected as Labour, abstained on the last VONC. But you can guarantee all Labour MPs in receipt of the whip would back a VONC even if they harboured private doubts - sacking offence not to do so.

Catch 22. Vote vonc and lose your seat - do not vonc and still lose your seat

Big_G_NorthWales

beentheredonethat said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1157298031219347456

This!!

It is only 80 million apparently !!!!!!